jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Apr 17, 2018 0:47:02 GMT
With Israel becoming increasingly involved in the conflict in Syria, and the Arab nations once again igniting the anti-Israeli fire that had laid dormant for decades, the idea of Israel and the Arabs going to war is not easy to ignore. What if in 2020, the Arabs and Israel become engaged in an active, military conflict?
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Apr 17, 2018 0:50:40 GMT
These are the basics:
Israel vs Arabs
-Egypt -Syria -Saudi Arabia -Iran -Jordan -Other Arab allies not directly involved
-The US, UK, France, Iraq and other NATO/Western Allies will support Israel
-Russia, Yemen, North Korea and other anti-NATO/anti-Western Allies will support the Arabs
Who will win?
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James G
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Post by James G on Apr 17, 2018 8:42:29 GMT
Interesting 'Arab' splits keep this from happening and unless Israel messes up big time, it won't happen. Saudi Arabia and Iran (certainly not Arabs) are utterly opposed to each other. Let's say your scenario goes regardless in an Arab love-in. Big players with miltary power in the region are Turkey, the UAE and Greece: the latter probably fighting with Israel against Turkey. Israel wins hands down. It would be a hard fight and WMDs would be used. Israel still wins.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 17, 2018 9:51:45 GMT
These are the basics: Israel vs Arabs
-Egypt -Syria -Saudi Arabia -Iran -Jordan -Other Arab allies not directly involved
-The US, UK, France, Iraq and other NATO/Western Allies will support Israel
-Russia, Yemen, North Korea and other anti-NATO/anti-Western Allies will support the Arabs
Who will win? I would agree with James. There are such deep divisions between the various Muslim groups that it would be hard to see them fighting on the same side, even if the Israelis say started mass deporting of Palestinians from the west bank and Gaza. The Saudis and Iran hate each other and it would take a lot to see Egypt and Jordan dragged into such a conflict basically on the Russia/extremist side. Also I would be doubtful that western powers other than the US would support Israel militarily unless possibly its threatened with total destruction. Russia under Putin might be rash enough to prompt a major conflict between its allies/puppets and Israel but their likely to be attacking from Syria/Lebanon only. N Korea I think has largely lost contacts with Russia and depends on China so I would expect while they might make some anti-American rants on 'principle' they wouldn't get directly involved. Not sure what side Turkey would go as while its a de-facto ally of Russia at the moment because both it and the Assad regime hate the Kurds any Turkish leadership with any sense will deeply mistrust an expansionist and aggressive Russia. If there was any danger of WMD being used then I think even Putin would seek to end the conflict ASAP as once Israel gets desperate enough to use some of its nukes things get very, very dangerous and unpredictable.
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Apr 17, 2018 11:38:43 GMT
These are the basics: Israel vs Arabs
-Egypt -Syria -Saudi Arabia -Iran -Jordan -Other Arab allies not directly involved
-The US, UK, France, Iraq and other NATO/Western Allies will support Israel
-Russia, Yemen, North Korea and other anti-NATO/anti-Western Allies will support the Arabs
Who will win? I would agree with James. There are such deep divisions between the various Muslim groups that it would be hard to see them fighting on the same side, even if the Israelis say started mass deporting of Palestinians from the west bank and Gaza. The Saudis and Iran hate each other and it would take a lot to see Egypt and Jordan dragged into such a conflict basically on the Russia/extremist side. Also I would be doubtful that western powers other than the US would support Israel militarily unless possibly its threatened with total destruction. Russia under Putin might be rash enough to prompt a major conflict between its allies/puppets and Israel but their likely to be attacking from Syria/Lebanon only. N Korea I think has largely lost contacts with Russia and depends on China so I would expect while they might make some anti-American rants on 'principle' they wouldn't get directly involved. Not sure what side Turkey would go as while its a de-facto ally of Russia at the moment because both it and the Assad regime hate the Kurds any Turkish leadership with any sense will deeply mistrust an expansionist and aggressive Russia. If there was any danger of WMD being used then I think even Putin would seek to end the conflict ASAP as once Israel gets desperate enough to use some of its nukes things get very, very dangerous and unpredictable. How would the public react?
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Apr 17, 2018 17:10:44 GMT
One little (but very important) detail is that Iran is not an Arab country at all. And honestly, I see no way at all to get them to fight side by side with the Saudis. As always, the hatrrd of different sects of the same religion is far greater than the hatred of other religions. Furthermore, outside of America, there are very few western countries that want to go to war in the Middle East. But, even then, Israel will probably win, even if it takes nukes.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 17, 2018 17:13:58 GMT
One little (but very important) detail is that Iran is not an Arab country at all. And honestly, I see no way at all to get them to fight side by side with the Saudis. As always, the hatrrd of different sects of the same religion is far greater than the hatred of other religions. Furthermore, outside of America, there are very few western countries that want to go to war in the Middle East. But, even then, Israel will probably win, even if it takes nukes. Also Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt are major United States Allies who receive major investment each year, no way they are going to trow that away.
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Apr 17, 2018 18:55:06 GMT
One little (but very important) detail is that Iran is not an Arab country at all. And honestly, I see no way at all to get them to fight side by side with the Saudis. As always, the hatrrd of different sects of the same religion is far greater than the hatred of other religions. Furthermore, outside of America, there are very few western countries that want to go to war in the Middle East. But, even then, Israel will probably win, even if it takes nukes. Also Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt are major United States Allies who receive major investment each year, no way they are going to trow that away. True, and although the European countries won't attack them for it, there will certainly be economic sanctions too, which hurt a lot.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 17, 2018 18:56:53 GMT
Also Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt are major United States Allies who receive major investment each year, no way they are going to trow that away. True, and although the European countries won't attack them for it, there will certainly be economic sanctions too, which hurt a lot. And Europe and America will suffer a oil crisis worse than the 1973 oil crisis
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Apr 17, 2018 18:58:13 GMT
True, and although the European countries won't attack them for it, there will certainly be economic sanctions too, which hurt a lot. And Europe and America will suffer a oil crisis worse than the 1973 oil crisisTrue, which will force them to other sources, which could be Russia or Iran.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 17, 2018 18:59:47 GMT
And Europe and America will suffer a oil crisis worse than the 1973 oil crisisTrue, which will force them to other sources, which could be Russia or Iran. Ore a country that has plenty of oil but no food.
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Apr 17, 2018 19:06:23 GMT
True, which will force them to other sources, which could be Russia or Iran. Ore a country that has plenty of oil but no food. Yes, I wonder where we could find such countries...
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 17, 2018 19:10:13 GMT
Ore a country that has plenty of oil but no food. Yes, I wonder where we could find such countries... One is located in South America, only question is will it still exist in 2020, another country might be Nigeria that could benefit of a new oil embargo.
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Apr 17, 2018 21:27:12 GMT
Yes, I wonder where we could find such countries... One is located in South America, only question is will it still exist in 2020, another country might be Nigeria that could benefit of a new oil embargo. Venezuela is a wildcard. I can see an uprising of sufficient magnitude eventually happening, perhaps supported by the CIA, that leads to Maduro's overthrowing and the establishing of a stable, democratic government. However, time can only tell. Indeed, nations like Nigeria may benefit from an embargo. However, one must remember these Arab nations' main source of income is from oil, and Western countries their principal buyers. So it would be an economic downturn for them, at least on the long run.
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Apr 17, 2018 21:43:58 GMT
One is located in South America, only question is will it still exist in 2020, another country might be Nigeria that could benefit of a new oil embargo. Venezuela is a wildcard. I can see an uprising of sufficient magnitude eventually happening, perhaps supported by the CIA, that leads to Maduro's overthrowing and the establishing of a stable, democratic government. However, time can only tell. Indeed, nations like Nigeria may benefit from an embargo. However, one must remember these Arab nations' main source of income is from oil, and Western countries their principal buyers. So it would be an economic downturn for them, at least on the long run. That, and these countries are really dependent on certain imports. One of the most important in a war is for military equipment, especially things like ordnance and the like. Almost all of it is bought in the west.
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