Fall and Rise: A WW2 ISOT

Part 3

“Circumspection. Simple as that, my dear Winston.”

“Pray expand, Richard. Expand as to why, when God gives us an opportunity, we should not seize it?”

Harcourt gave a tiny internal sigh at Churchill’s mercurial nature. This was not the first time that he or Brooke had sought to curb the Prime Minister’s instincts, with varying degrees of success.

“It has been around 36 hours since our arrival, if I can put it that way. We have at best partial intelligence on not only the Germans but the world at large that we find ourselves in. Now that our relative position with regard to air and land forces is established, do we necessarily lose anything by not committing ourselves to immediate general offensive action?”

“I would tend to concur, Prime Minister. Whilst we can launch an offensive into France, the longer we take to prepare it, the more our likelihood of total success. Our window for a cross-Channel invasion, if it comes to it, extends to mid September, just as the German one did back in 1940…well, our 1940. Even then, we would be dealing with a number of unknown variables, ranging from the weather to the French. We’ve spent a year and a half planning and preparing Overlord and we still had another 9 months yet to go.” said Brooke.

“We are not going to leave Europe to the mercy of Nazi tyranny for that long. We are delivered here to provide for a much swifter end to this war and their bloody murder.”

“That isn’t what I’d suggest at all, Winston. I’m all for action this day as much as you, but it depends on what action. If we shift our immediate steps to the periphery, as it were, then we keep the vast part of our strengths and options open. Every week that goes by makes us stronger, after all. We went through the production plans back in August; this month, we will add 480 tanks, all of them the new Super Crusader, at least 1200 carriers and 1000 guns, not to mention 7 new destroyers, 500 Spitfires, 250 rockets and 6 LSTs.”

“The last are what we really need, Prime Minister - not just LSTs, but all manner of landing craft as well. We’ve got what we had here at home, but we are now without not just the production from the United States, but also Canada. Whilst I cannot say it conclusively until we have more intelligence on the numbers and equipment of this Germany, I am fairly sure that we can outproduce them in every major category of military equipment for the rest of the year, cementing our advantage.”

“If not France, then where?”

“Two places: Norway and Egypt. In Norway, we can maul their fleet, as we discussed earlier, whilst having a relatively nearby combat theatre in which to gauge Jerry’s capabilities. In Egypt, we can wrap up Italian North Africa before the end of autumn.” Harcourt stabbed at the map with his pencil to emphasise each point.

“Very well. Unless Ironside’s mission to the French encounters some dramatic success on the morrow, we can work towards that basis. Whatever their decision, we will start hitting the Germans from the air, including letting Harris loose on Berlin. That will be a quite decisive factor that will show that, far from being stricken by the looming collapse of our ally, we are prepared to fight and win. To that end, have the Dover Guns begin firing across the Channel and have the BBC include a piece on the Grand Fleet heading back to us.”

Harcourt smiled. “I quite agree, Prime Minister. It is about sending a message.”

“Speaking of which, I have a cable to dictate to President Roosevelt before bed. That will be a rather interesting endeavour.”

………………….

“This is London calling in the overseas service of the British Broadcasting Corporation. Here is the news. The main force of the Grand Fleet under Admiral Cunningham has been ordered home from the Far East, with 27 battleships, 60 aircraft carriers, 72 cruisers and 214 destroyers and escorts already underway; Admiral Mountbatten is to remain at Singapore with ten older 18” capital ships. The Prime Minister, Mr Churchill, has called upon Italy and Germany to surrender whilst they still can and that it was only a matter of time until all of conquered Europe would be liberated. Morning has come.”

…………..
Washington D.C.

President Franklin Roosevelt took a drag from his cigarette holder and then exhaled, just a tad more forcefully than usual.

“Do you have any idea what the British are playing at, Admiral?”

“Mr. President, short of them going completely mad, the only possible explanation is propaganda, but this frankly does seem to be of the most transparent kind possible. I can’t see who they are trying to fool, lying like this.”

“Perhaps it is something to do with the confusion of the last day or so and the French being on the brink of surrender.”

“Yes, Mr. President. Whatever it is, it will soon become clear.”

…………………

Admiral Yamamoto sat and thought. Surely, this could not be true in any way.

The alternative did not even bear thinking about.

As outlined on the first page of the thread, it comes from the 17 fleet carriers, 8 light fleets and 35 escort carriers in the Grand Fleet. Given that no one else has any CVEs yet, they will be flummoxed by the numbers and quite disbelieve them.

The intent is for Suez, as their arrival signals the start of naval operations against Italy. Given the size of the Regia Aeronautica in 1940, it promises to be a bit one sided.

”The forces within the Territorial Air Zones based in Italy were organized as follows:

Northern Zone: 7 wings of bombers (approx. 315 planes) and 3 wings (plus one group) of CR-42 fighters (approx. 210 planes);
Central Zone: three wings of bombers (approx. 135 planes) and two wings and a group of fighter planes (approx. 150 planes);
Southern Zone: five bomber wings (approx. 225 planes) and one fighter wing as well as an autonomous fighter group (approx. 90 planes) and dive bomber group (approx. 25 planes);
South-Eastern Zone: one wing of night-bombers (approx. 45 planes) and float-planes and a group of obsolescent CR-32 fighters (approx. 30 planes).
the largest of the overseas commands was that based in Libya and comprised four bomber wings (approx. 180 planes) ; a fighter wing and three other fighter groups (approx. 150 planes) ; and two groups plus two squadrons of colonial reconnaissance aircraft (approx. 60 planes).
The Italian Air Force begun the war with nearly 2,000 operational aircraft ready for combat and with almost the same number in reserve.”


www.ww2-weapons.com/italian-air-force-and-navy/

By a lot, read ~2500 aircraft available to the Grand Fleet.

At Singapore, there are Warspite , Valiant , Queen Elizabeth, Barham, Queen Victoria, Royal Oak, Revenge, Ramillies, Reprisal and Resolution.

The QEs are ~50,000t with 8 x 18” and 24 x 5.25”, 15” belts and speeds of 28 knots, whilst the Rs are slightly larger but with the same armament and speed.

The IJN has
Fuso: 29,326t, 12 x 14”, 16 x 6”, 12” belt and 23 knots
Yamashiro: 29,326t, 12 x 14”, 16 x 6”, 12” belt and 23 knots
Hyuga: 31,260t, 12 x 14”, 20 x 5.5”, 11.8” belt and 23 knots
Ise: 31,260t, 12 x 14”, 20 x 5.5”, 11.8” belt and 23 knots
Nagato: 32,720t, 8 x 16”, 20 x 5.5”, 12” belt and 26.5 knots
Mutsu: 32,720t, 8 x 16”, 20 x 5.5”, 12” belt and 26.5 knots

Kongo: 32,156t, 8 x 14”, 8 x 6”, 12 x 5”, 8” belt and 30.5 knots
Kirishima: 32,156t, 8 x 14”, 8 x 6”, 12 x 5”, 8” belt and 30.5 knots
Haruna: 32,156t, 8 x 14”, 8 x 6”, 12 x 5”, 8” belt and 30.5 knots
Hiei: 32,156t, 8 x 14”, 8 x 6”, 12 x 5”, 8” belt and 30.5 knots

At a minimum, it provides ammunition for the Strike North group, although that is weighed against the previous performance of the IJA against the Red Army.

On a further issue, every potential future Luftwaffe bomber, Stuka, fighter and heavy fighter airfield used by Luftflotte 2 and 3 in the BoB is within 300 miles of Southern English bases, or a bit further from the East Anglian bomber bases. That brings all of the RAF’s 3800+ fighter-bombers*, 363 dive bombers, strike fighters and 1423 light/attack bombers within range, plus the ~1300 mediums, 524 Mossies and heavies.

* 
726 Mustangs
698 Thunderbolts
611 Tomahawks

2292 Hurricanes
930 Typhoons
338 Beaufighters 

386 Mosquito SF

3190 Spitfires
969 Tempests


The initial wave of air attacks:

1.) Fighter-bombers and bombers attack Rommel’s 7th Panzer Division between Le Havre and Cherbourg
2.) 5th Panzer Division engaged and destroyed
3.) Fighter and fighter-bomber attack on airfields in Low Countries 
4.) Every airfield in Northern France 


Location of Panzer Divisions:
1st Panzer: Belfort
2nd Panzer: Central France 
3rd Panzer: Western France 
4th Panzer: Grenoble
5th Panzer: Brest
6th Panzer: Encirclement near Maginot Line
8th Panzer: Western France 
9th Panzer: Lyon
10th Panzer: Western France 

Selected German Aircraft Production 1940
Do 17: 260
Do 217: 20
He 111: 756
Ju 88: 1816 + 88 NF
Me 109: 1667
Me 110: 1006
Ju 87: 603
Ju 52: 388

Losses BoF
Me 109: 257
Me 110: 110
Ju 87: 122
Bombers: 521
Ju 52: 213


German aircraft production by year
year combat  other 
1933 0          368
1934 840    1,128
1935 1,823 1,360
1936 2,530 2,582
1937 2,651 2,955
1938 3,350 1,885
1939 4,733 3,562