stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 3, 2020 13:38:49 GMT
Thanks for the summary. That does put Lee in a difficult position. I think Lee would either refuse to fight at all or as you say be willing to serve the union but not directly against Virginia as you say. Trend to think the former because if he continued to serve in the union forces after Virginia leaves the union he would be reviled there but if he say returned to Virginia on condition he didn't serve he would still be accepted there. Suspect that how he was viewed in Virginia would be most important to him.
Steve
That's kinda my take on him as well. In the story, he's already seen as a traitor in Virginia for not surrendering immediately like so many other Southern officers did. I also forgot to mention that, as he and his men were leaving the Alamo, he fired it and destroyed all the supplies there because the man he surrendered to failed to require the supplies be surrendered intact in the surrender documents. So his standing in the South is screwed. (As an aside, Turtledove really screwed Ben McColluh (sp) over in this story. He turned him into little more than a bumbling rank amateur, while in real life, he was actually a decent tactician and had a good understanding of how war was fought.) Back to Lee, given he was already seen as a traitor and was reviled in Virginia, would that effect his decision? If he was seen as just having done his duty while Virginia was still part of the Union, I could see him retiring and staying out of the fighting. But given the sheer number of other Southern officers who turned over their whole commands to the South, regardless of whether or not their state had seceded yet, I don't know if that will be an option for him.
Ah if he's already seen as a traitor in Virginia, other than by a small number of hot-heads anyway, that would make a return more difficult. Also while technically permissible that little trick with firing the fort to destroy the supplies will be seen as rather underhand by many.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 3, 2020 22:08:39 GMT
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ssgtc
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Post by ssgtc on Oct 3, 2020 22:21:28 GMT
I gotta disagree. The British and French may have made supportive noises, but they had zero appetite to actually intervene in the war. Their own internal politics would not let them openly fight for a slaveocracy baring a major provocation from the Union.
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ssgtc
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Post by ssgtc on Oct 3, 2020 22:28:11 GMT
Also, I just read that scenario, there are A LOT of ifs, buts, ands and maybe in it. It also assumes everything goes right for the Confederacy and nothing goes right for the Union. I don't see a crushing victory for the South here. At most, they push the Union back from their original lines, but I don't think they capture Pittsburgh Landing. Johnston had green troops attacking veterans. Those veterans were very unlikely to break and run.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 4, 2020 10:30:58 GMT
I gotta disagree. The British and French may have made supportive noises, but they had zero appetite to actually intervene in the war. Their own internal politics would not let them openly fight for a slaveocracy baring a major provocation from the Union.
Agree here. The Trent Affair was a different matter but Britain, while preferring a peaceful settlement had little desire for military intervention in the conflict and while Napoleon III was more interesting in doing so he was discouraged by London.
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ssgtc
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Post by ssgtc on Oct 4, 2020 12:56:59 GMT
I gotta disagree. The British and French may have made supportive noises, but they had zero appetite to actually intervene in the war. Their own internal politics would not let them openly fight for a slaveocracy baring a major provocation from the Union.
Agree here. The Trent Affair was a different matter but Britain, while preferring a peaceful settlement had little desire for military intervention in the conflict and while Napoleon III was more interesting in doing so he was discouraged by London.
Even had the UK decided to intervene over the Trent Affair, I doubt they actually get involved in ground fighting. Openly supplying the CSA? Definitely. Escorting merchant shipping into Southern ports to break the blockade? Maybe. I don't think they do more than that. The political will just wasn't there.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 4, 2020 18:49:55 GMT
Agree here. The Trent Affair was a different matter but Britain, while preferring a peaceful settlement had little desire for military intervention in the conflict and while Napoleon III was more interesting in doing so he was discouraged by London.
Even had the UK decided to intervene over the Trent Affair, I doubt they actually get involved in ground fighting. Openly supplying the CSA? Definitely. Escorting merchant shipping into Southern ports to break the blockade? Maybe. I don't think they do more than that. The political will just wasn't there.
I think the primary issues would be: a) A blockade of the union, which would cause considerable problems as a lot of important supplies would be cut off. Plus also it would mean the lifting of the union blockade of the south.
b) Apparently before he was persuaded that Britain was serious about the deadline Lincoln was considering an attack towards Montreal if war did break out. One reason that during the crisis Britain started shipping troops and equipment to Canada.
If Lincoln rejects Britain's demands it would mean war and an end at the very least to union overseas trade. After all Britain wouldn't want any ships leaving port that might become raiders and threaten Britain's own trade. There are a lot of other things that Britain could do if necessary to apply pressure on the union to release the people seized on the Trent and apologise for the action. It was seen as a vital issue, an attack on a British ship on the high seas.
Steve
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ssgtc
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Post by ssgtc on Oct 4, 2020 19:02:22 GMT
Even had the UK decided to intervene over the Trent Affair, I doubt they actually get involved in ground fighting. Openly supplying the CSA? Definitely. Escorting merchant shipping into Southern ports to break the blockade? Maybe. I don't think they do more than that. The political will just wasn't there.
I think the primary issues would be: a) A blockade of the union, which would cause considerable problems as a lot of important supplies would be cut off. Plus also it would mean the lifting of the union blockade of the south.
b) Apparently before he was persuaded that Britain was serious about the deadline Lincoln was considering an attack towards Montreal if war did break out. One reason that during the crisis Britain started shipping troops and equipment to Canada.
If Lincoln rejects Britain's demands it would mean war and an end at the very least to union overseas trade. After all Britain wouldn't want any ships leaving port that might become raiders and threaten Britain's own trade. There are a lot of other things that Britain could do if necessary to apply pressure on the union to release the people seized on the Trent and apologise for the action. It was seen as a vital issue, an attack on a British ship on the high seas.
Steve
Now that you mention it, I could definitely see a British blockade of the North. Or at least an attempt at one. The Union was beginning to crank out ironclads around that time. And while most were not meant for more than harbor service, they were at least seaworthy enough to force the British into maintaining a distant blockade, which would be far less effective at stopping shipping. At least until the UK began to spam out their own ironclads to counter the American ones.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 4, 2020 23:06:50 GMT
I gotta disagree. The British and French may have made supportive noises, but they had zero appetite to actually intervene in the war. Their own internal politics would not let them openly fight for a slaveocracy baring a major provocation from the Union. See Blue and Gray Diplomacy: A History of Union and Confederate Foreign Relations by Howard Jones, Chapter Requiem for Napoleon—and Intervention - Yet Kenner’s secret mission was anything but secret. Reports about it appeared in the Richmond Enquirer and Sentinel in late December 1864. Seward notified the Union embassy in London of the mission on January 10, and the news appeared in the Paris press on March 2. Kenner had left Richmond in disguise on January 18, 1865, lamenting that he would have had a better chance in early 1863, when both England and France were well aware of the Confederacy’s diminishing resources and the battles at Gettysburg and Vicksburg had not yet occurred. “I would have succeeded” in securing a £15 million loan when “slavery was the bone of contention.” Now, neither Napoleon nor Palmerston showed interest in the proposal. To Kenner and Mason, the emperor explained that he refused to move without England and that he “had never taken [slavery] into consideration” regarding recognition. On March 14, 1865, Mason met with Palmerston for more than an hour at Cambridge House, where the prime minister also rejected the plan, insisting that slavery was not the obstacle to intervention; the Confederacy had not proven its independence on the battlefield. The Richmond Dispatch glumly noted, “No one would receive us as a gift." The responses should not have surprised the Confederacy. Napoleon’s reply contained nothing different from his initial determination to follow the British lead. Palmerston’s argument against recognition correlated with his long conversation with De Leon in the summer of 1862. O n neither side of the English Channel did slavery emerge as the critical consideration.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 4, 2020 23:11:06 GMT
Also, I just read that scenario, there are A LOT of ifs, buts, ands and maybe in it. It also assumes everything goes right for the Confederacy and nothing goes right for the Union. I don't see a crushing victory for the South here. At most, they push the Union back from their original lines, but I don't think they capture Pittsburgh Landing. Johnston had green troops attacking veterans. Those veterans were very unlikely to break and run. Both sides had equally experienced troops, the difference was Beauregard introducing conflicting orders to what Johnston had issued as well as causing the delay. Basically, the only thing the author changed was Beauregard taking Lee's place at the coast, allowing Johnston to both move out on time and conduct his plan.
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ssgtc
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Post by ssgtc on Oct 5, 2020 1:04:20 GMT
Also, I just read that scenario, there are A LOT of ifs, buts, ands and maybe in it. It also assumes everything goes right for the Confederacy and nothing goes right for the Union. I don't see a crushing victory for the South here. At most, they push the Union back from their original lines, but I don't think they capture Pittsburgh Landing. Johnston had green troops attacking veterans. Those veterans were very unlikely to break and run. Both sides had equally experienced troops, the difference was Beauregard introducing conflicting orders to what Johnston had issued as well as causing the delay. Basically, the only thing the author changed was Beauregard taking Lee's place at the coast, allowing Johnston to both move out on time and conduct his plan. Uh, no. He also had both Grant and Sherman get their brains blown out in the opening seconds of the battle. I'll grant you that Sherman probably should have been killed in the battle. He was in the thick of the fight from the start and had several horses shot out from under him. But having him killed with almost the very first shot of the battle before he even knows what's going on? Then having Grant similarly killed, when by all reports he never even approached the front lines, commanding from the rear? That snacks of an Ameriscrew. Particularly when none of the Confederates senior officers are killed, despite being at the very front of their men. As an example, in Pickets Charge, 26 of 40 Field Grade officers (Majors, Lt Cols and Colonels) were killed from his division alone. All three of his brigade commanders were casualties with two dieing and one being severely wounded (all general officers). Trimble, a Major General and division commander, lost a leg. So yet more proof that the author set outto deliberately screw the Union and wank the CSA. And don't forget, the author has the entire force panic, rout, and then get systemically gunned down until none are left. That didn't even happen at Fredericksburg or Gettysburg when both armies marched straight into prepared killing fields. Even at Antietam, which saw over 22,000 killed in a day, neither army was destroyed. So again, the scenario was written as a CSA wank and deliberately screws the Union. Even if everything goes right for the CSA, the battle is not resulting in the outcome described by the author. I also feel i should remind people of something, since you have now said that "if the original plan had been followed," it would have been a crushing victory. There is a very old military axiom. It states, no plan survives contact with the enemy. Johnston could have followed his plan to the letter, but it would not have gone exactly as planned once battle was joined.
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ssgtc
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Post by ssgtc on Oct 5, 2020 1:23:14 GMT
I gotta disagree. The British and French may have made supportive noises, but they had zero appetite to actually intervene in the war. Their own internal politics would not let them openly fight for a slaveocracy baring a major provocation from the Union. See Blue and Gray Diplomacy: A History of Union and Confederate Foreign Relations by Howard Jones, Chapter Requiem for Napoleon—and Intervention - Yet Kenner’s secret mission was anything but secret. Reports about it appeared in the Richmond Enquirer and Sentinel in late December 1864. Seward notified the Union embassy in London of the mission on January 10, and the news appeared in the Paris press on March 2. Kenner had left Richmond in disguise on January 18, 1865, lamenting that he would have had a better chance in early 1863, when both England and France were well aware of the Confederacy’s diminishing resources and the battles at Gettysburg and Vicksburg had not yet occurred. “I would have succeeded” in securing a £15 million loan when “slavery was the bone of contention.” Now, neither Napoleon nor Palmerston showed interest in the proposal. To Kenner and Mason, the emperor explained that he refused to move without England and that he “had never taken [slavery] into consideration” regarding recognition. On March 14, 1865, Mason met with Palmerston for more than an hour at Cambridge House, where the prime minister also rejected the plan, insisting that slavery was not the obstacle to intervention; the Confederacy had not proven its independence on the battlefield. The Richmond Dispatch glumly noted, “No one would receive us as a gift." The responses should not have surprised the Confederacy. Napoleon’s reply contained nothing different from his initial determination to follow the British lead. Palmerston’s argument against recognition correlated with his long conversation with De Leon in the summer of 1862. O n neither side of the English Channel did slavery emerge as the critical consideration. I would take anything said by a Confederate after the war with an absolutely massive grain of salt. Because those comments by that diplomat sound a lot like "Lost Cause" appologism. (Note: I am not accusing you of that. I'm saying the diplomat was pushing the Lost Cause myth.) I would seriously question the claim that it had nothing to do with slavery given the time frame. The South getting its ass handed to it was just a convenient excuse that both governments seized on to keep from having to admit that they never intended to back the CSA because they could not be seen to publicly support a slaveocracy when they themselves were vocal opponents of slavery. The Trent Affair was the British responding to what they saw as an act of war when their ship was stopped and boarded on the high seas. The fact that they would be fighting alongside the CSA was more a case of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" than any real desire to aid the South (beyond the fact that helping the South fight the Union helped THEM fight the Union).
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 5, 2020 2:10:46 GMT
Both sides had equally experienced troops, the difference was Beauregard introducing conflicting orders to what Johnston had issued as well as causing the delay. Basically, the only thing the author changed was Beauregard taking Lee's place at the coast, allowing Johnston to both move out on time and conduct his plan. Uh, no. He also had both Grant and Sherman get their brains blown out in the opening seconds of the battle. I'll grant you that Sherman probably should have been killed in the battle. He was in the thick of the fight from the start and had several horses shot out from under him. But having him killed with almost the very first shot of the battle before he even knows what's going on? Then having Grant similarly killed, when by all reports he never even approached the front lines, commanding from the rear? That snacks of an Ameriscrew. Particularly when none of the Confederates senior officers are killed, despite being at the very front of their men. As an example, in Pickets Charge, 26 of 40 Field Grade officers (Majors, Lt Cols and Colonels) were killed from his division alone. All three of his brigade commanders were casualties with two dieing and one being severely wounded (all general officers). Trimble, a Major General and division commander, lost a leg. So yet more proof that the author set outto deliberately screw the Union and wank the CSA. And don't forget, the author has the entire force panic, rout, and then get systemically gunned down until none are left. That didn't even happen at Fredericksburg or Gettysburg when both armies marched straight into prepared killing fields. Even at Antietam, which saw over 22,000 killed in a day, neither army was destroyed. So again, the scenario was written as a CSA wank and deliberately screws the Union. Even if everything goes right for the CSA, the battle is not resulting in the outcome described by the author. I also feel i should remind people of something, since you have now said that "if the original plan had been followed," it would have been a crushing victory. There is a very old military axiom. It states, no plan survives contact with the enemy. Johnston could have followed his plan to the letter, but it would not have gone exactly as planned once battle was joined. The author does not state Sherman was the first killed, and he has Grant die later in the battle as the Confederate attack develops. Ultimately, however, neither of these detract from the basis of the Confederate victory; a better deployment and a movement that involves not running to the Union Gunboats at Pittsburg Landing. Comparing this to Pickett's Charge ignores the very, very different tactical basis of both engagements. At Pickett's Charge, the Federal defenders were awaiting the attack, which had to come across an open field at them. At Shiloh, however, the Federals were caught completely by surprise and Grant compounded this failure by having ordered his men not to construct entrenchments. In short: Shiloh: Unprepared Federals caught by surprise with no fortifications Pickett's Charge: Fortified Federals expecting an attack in the open against them Further again, you need to consider that comparisons to other battles ignore the changed landscape and orientation of the battlefield. At Fredericksburg, the Confederates were entrenched and allowing the Federals to attack them but, further, the Federals had an open line of retreat. Same goes for Antietam. What the author wrote was Johnston's plan, which was a good one; instead of focusing on Pittsburg Landing, the attack maneuvers the Union forces into such a position that they have no escape due to the prevailing swamps and creeks of the area. If to his rear is flood, impassable swamps and to his front is the Confederate Army, what else can be expected but the total destruction of the force? See what happened to Harper's Ferry in September of 1862, where Jackson destroyed an entire force of 12,000 Federals. Finally, "No Plan survives Contact with the enemy" isn't meant to be a truism, but to instill a sense of improvisation as the particulars of the battlefield shape up. The vast majority of military operations do proceed as planned; otherwise, how does anybody win wars?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 5, 2020 17:32:49 GMT
I think the primary issues would be: a) A blockade of the union, which would cause considerable problems as a lot of important supplies would be cut off. Plus also it would mean the lifting of the union blockade of the south.
b) Apparently before he was persuaded that Britain was serious about the deadline Lincoln was considering an attack towards Montreal if war did break out. One reason that during the crisis Britain started shipping troops and equipment to Canada.
If Lincoln rejects Britain's demands it would mean war and an end at the very least to union overseas trade. After all Britain wouldn't want any ships leaving port that might become raiders and threaten Britain's own trade. There are a lot of other things that Britain could do if necessary to apply pressure on the union to release the people seized on the Trent and apologise for the action. It was seen as a vital issue, an attack on a British ship on the high seas.
Steve
Now that you mention it, I could definitely see a British blockade of the North. Or at least an attempt at one. The Union was beginning to crank out ironclads around that time. And while most were not meant for more than harbor service, they were at least seaworthy enough to force the British into maintaining a distant blockade, which would be far less effective at stopping shipping. At least until the UK began to spam out their own ironclads to counter the American ones.
Actually that could be difficult for the union. When the crisis started the original Monitor was still under construction while Britain already has 4 sea going ironclads - 2 HMS_Warrior class and 2 of the slightly smaller HMS_Defence class - although the latter were still under construction when the crisis developed with the stopping of the Trent. Also they had a number of floating batteries, initially developed in the final stages of the Crimean war which were probably similar in characteristics to the Monitor. See Aetna-class_ironclad_floating_battery for some details although there were a later class that are mentioned on Wiki but don't have articles on them. Found some details in HMS Terror class ironclad batteries, which gives some details. Terror herself was the guardshio at Bermuda when the crisis started.
Plus given the greater technological and industrial base of the time I suspect that Britain could pump out more and faster ironclads that the union at this time. Furthermore given that a lot of the wooded steam warships of the line had numerous guns firing 64lb shot which had excellent penetration capacity I wouldn't rule them out as being incapable against early ironclads.
If you have the time have a look at Trent War Scenario on the US Civil War site. Its interesting in part because the 1st section is where the author, Saphroneth, asks for comments and discussion and there's a lot of references about assorted factors in the event of a war between the union and the UK at that time. To put it bluntly the union doesn't have a chance as its too dependent on imports at this stage, not just although largely from the British empire. Including not just rifles and barrels but lead and probably most of all saltpetre which the US imported from India. Also there is a clear technological lead at this time in terms of metallurgy. Coupled with the ongoing war with the south the US can't really attack Canada and is going to face enormous problems. On the AH site he has an earlier version of the TL, called "If they won't meet us on the seas" IIRC which does run until the end of the war in the autumn of 1862. Some very interesting butterflies, including when the US asks for an additional neutral mediator - in this case from Prussia - for the peace conference. Plus a sneaky little trick Palmerston pulls on the south to allow British ships to search CSA flagged ships for slaves being imported from Africa.
Steve
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 5, 2020 17:43:28 GMT
Uh, no. He also had both Grant and Sherman get their brains blown out in the opening seconds of the battle. I'll grant you that Sherman probably should have been killed in the battle. He was in the thick of the fight from the start and had several horses shot out from under him. But having him killed with almost the very first shot of the battle before he even knows what's going on? Then having Grant similarly killed, when by all reports he never even approached the front lines, commanding from the rear? That snacks of an Ameriscrew. Particularly when none of the Confederates senior officers are killed, despite being at the very front of their men. As an example, in Pickets Charge, 26 of 40 Field Grade officers (Majors, Lt Cols and Colonels) were killed from his division alone. All three of his brigade commanders were casualties with two dieing and one being severely wounded (all general officers). Trimble, a Major General and division commander, lost a leg. So yet more proof that the author set outto deliberately screw the Union and wank the CSA. And don't forget, the author has the entire force panic, rout, and then get systemically gunned down until none are left. That didn't even happen at Fredericksburg or Gettysburg when both armies marched straight into prepared killing fields. Even at Antietam, which saw over 22,000 killed in a day, neither army was destroyed. So again, the scenario was written as a CSA wank and deliberately screws the Union. Even if everything goes right for the CSA, the battle is not resulting in the outcome described by the author. I also feel i should remind people of something, since you have now said that "if the original plan had been followed," it would have been a crushing victory. There is a very old military axiom. It states, no plan survives contact with the enemy. Johnston could have followed his plan to the letter, but it would not have gone exactly as planned once battle was joined. The author does not state Sherman was the first killed, and he has Grant die later in the battle as the Confederate attack develops. Ultimately, however, neither of these detract from the basis of the Confederate victory; a better deployment and a movement that involves not running to the Union Gunboats at Pittsburg Landing. Comparing this to Pickett's Charge ignores the very, very different tactical basis of both engagements. At Pickett's Charge, the Federal defenders were awaiting the attack, which had to come across an open field at them. At Shiloh, however, the Federals were caught completely by surprise and Grant compounded this failure by having ordered his men not to construct entrenchments. In short: Shiloh: Unprepared Federals caught by surprise with no fortifications Pickett's Charge: Fortified Federals expecting an attack in the open against them Further again, you need to consider that comparisons to other battles ignore the changed landscape and orientation of the battlefield. At Fredericksburg, the Confederates were entrenched and allowing the Federals to attack them but, further, the Federals had an open line of retreat. Same goes for Antietam. What the author wrote was Johnston's plan, which was a good one; instead of focusing on Pittsburg Landing, the attack maneuvers the Union forces into such a position that they have no escape due to the prevailing swamps and creeks of the area. If to his rear is flood, impassable swamps and to his front is the Confederate Army, what else can be expected but the total destruction of the force? See what happened to Harper's Ferry in September of 1862, where Jackson destroyed an entire force of 12,000 Federals. Finally, "No Plan survives Contact with the enemy" isn't meant to be a truism, but to instill a sense of improvisation as the particulars of the battlefield shape up. The vast majority of military operations do proceed as planned; otherwise, how does anybody win wars?
Have to disagree with this last bit. Yes its meant to show the importance of improvisation. However by definition at least half of military plans do fail in part and many totally as there are at least two sides in any war. Classic example might be the opening campaigns of WWI as I don't think anyone can say their plans worked out there. [Possible exception might be the Serbs, who for the 1st year+ managed to hold off a much larger opponent and possibly the UK for helping to prevent the total crushing of Belgium and defeat of France. However I doubt many in the BEF or the government and military higher levels at home expected anything like what happened in the campaign let alone the next 4 years].
Sometimes the conflict is so one sided that the eventual winner is in doubt but you can still get nasty shocks. For instance the Soviets in the Winter War or British at Isandlwana for example. Other than very short wars which may see little/no problems for the eventual winner its a case of muddling through, being better in some areas and making less [and/or less serious] mistakes than the opposition.
Steve
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