stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 1, 2020 11:03:56 GMT
Something to consider in this scenario is US and British forces in Germany. There would be a lot of heavy forces there. Maybe the BAOR would declare neutrality or outright mutiny against the fascist/communist regime in London. If not, it's I British Corps v US V & VII Corps in central Germany while the Soviets die of laughter. Plus other British overseas forces in Cyprus, Kenya, Belize, Brunei, Bermuda, Hong Kong, the Falklands, Diego Garcia, and Gibraltar.
The others yes/probably but I don't think we had any forces in Kenya as that had been independent for a while. With Belize, Hong Kong and the Falklands the problem might be the local predator seeking to gain territory while Britain and the US are at odds.
What hasn't been mentioned yet is the R force. Its getting long in the tooth - there might even be one boat laid up permanently by this date - and the Vanguards aren't in service yet but we still had some old WE.177 tactical weapons although they would only serve as a deterrent against tactical attack.
A lot depends on the details, including the loyalty of the military, which is likely to be strained in multiple directions and what has happened. If its actually some military coup by an extreme left wing group then its likely the US won't get a look in because the British forces are likely to suppress it. If its some move by which Thatcher and the Tories have been removed from power by a coalition of centre-left forces by parliamentary means and Reagan and the US right are unhappy with it then there is the chance of a really nasty clash.
In the former case there is of course the nightmare scenario for both sides possibly that the Soviets offer fraternal assistance.
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forcon
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Post by forcon on Sept 1, 2020 14:29:01 GMT
The third option is a fascist regime in London ala What if Gordon Banks Had Played. Say some National Front types somehow come to power and go full isolationist and them start deporting 'undesirables' etc, protests break out en masse, the Army refuses to obey orders to suppress the protests and everything spirals out of control from there...
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 2, 2020 9:31:22 GMT
The third option is a fascist regime in London ala What if Gordon Banks Had Played. Say some National Front types somehow come to power and go full isolationist and them start deporting 'undesirables' etc, protests break out en masse, the Army refuses to obey orders to suppress the protests and everything spirals out of control from there...
True. I was reading "The illegal seizure of power inside Britain by radicals" and the fact that they were at odds with the US as being their a left wing group but could be that its some extreme right wing type.
Heard of that TL before but not sure how valid it is. A more successful England in the 1970 world cup is likely to make the country more confident whereas for extremists to take over by force you really need a crisis and fear/uncertainty being powerful.
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Post by redrobin65 on Sept 8, 2020 13:57:06 GMT
Order of Battle: Spanish Republican Army at the start of the Second Peninsular War (1942-43)
Northern Command (Field Marshal Vincente Rojo Lluch)
Spanish Third Army (Pyrennes)
IX Army Corps
-20th Infantry Division
-39th Infantry Division
-54th Infantry Division
XVII Army Corps
-43rd Infantry Division
-44th Infantry Division
-1st Tank Brigade
Spanish Fourth Army (Western Pyrenees and Pamplona)
XV Army Corps
-3rd Infantry Division
-11th Infantry Division
V Army Corps
-51st Infantry Division
-60th Infantry Division
-81st Infantry Division
Central Command (Spread in the centre and west of Spain, mainly against nationalist guerillas) (General Jose Miaja)
XXI Corps
-23rd Infantry Division
-32nd Infantry Division
-34th Infantry Division
-40th Infantry Division
-48th Infantry Division
Southern Command (Andalusia) (General Francisco Largo Caballero)
XXX Corps
-1st Infantry Division
-10th Infantry Division
-18th Infantry Division
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James G
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Post by James G on Sept 8, 2020 14:43:23 GMT
Nazis coming south out of France and British landing in Portugal & Coruna?
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Post by redrobin65 on Sept 8, 2020 15:04:12 GMT
Nazis coming south out of France and British landing in Portugal & Coruna? Something along those lines. The POD for this would be 1936: if the Republicans were ever going to win the Civil War, it would have to be early. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 8, 2020 15:10:59 GMT
Nazis coming south out of France and British landing in Portugal & Coruna? Something along those lines. The POD for this would be 1936: if the Republicans were ever going to win the Civil War, it would have to be early.
If the Republicans won would they survive 1940 and the German victory over France? Unless possibly its a hard line faction that won and as part of the agreement with Stalin meant they were protected but would then expect Hitler to move against them once Russia was attacked. Apart from anything else that gives a route to Gibraltar and closing the western entrance to the Med, as well as gaining further ports for the U boats. Plus in such a case the Germans might expect support from the defeated Spanish fascists and other opponents of the regime.
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James G
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Post by James G on Sept 9, 2020 17:51:38 GMT
General ORBAT for a Soviet invasion of China in the late 80s.
KAZAKHSTAN FRONT
(Army Group tasked for Chinese invasion mission out of Kazakhstan into Xinjiang: with two field armies plus an independent tank corps & an airborne division)
SOVIET THIRTY–SECOND ARMY
(Army based in peacetime in the Central Asian Military District: four divisions strong for wartime operations)
SOVIET FIFTH GUARDS ARMY CORPS
(Corps based in peacetime in the Belorussian Military District; four brigades strong and tasked as shock troop for wartime operations)
SOVIET SECOND ARMY
(Army HQ formed from the Seventeen Army Corps based in peacetime in the Central Asian Military District: three divisions strong for wartime operations)
MONGOLIAN FRONT
(Army Group tasked for Chinese invasion mission out of Mongolia (country) into Inner Mongolia (in China): with two field armies plus attachments of Mongolia forces)
SOVIET TWENTY–NINTH ARMY
(Army based in peacetime in the Trans-Baikal Military District: four divisions strong for wartime operations (including cross-attachment from 39th Army) )
SOVIET THIRTY–NINTH ARMY
(Army based in peacetime with the Mongolian Group of Forces: four divisions strong for wartime operations)
SECOND MANCHURIAN FRONT
(Army Group tasked for Chinese invasion mission out of Eastern Siberia into Manchuria: with two field armies plus an independent tank corps & an airborne division)
SOVIET THIRTY–SIXTH ARMY
(Army based in peacetime in the Trans-Baikal Military District: three divisions strong for wartime operations)
SOVIET FORTY–EIGHTH GUARDS ARMY CORPS
(Corps based in peacetime in the Trans-Baikal Military District; four brigades strong and tasked as shock troop for wartime operations)
SOVIET THIRTY–FIFTH ARMY
(Army based in peacetime in the Far Eastern Military District: three divisions strong for wartime operations)
FIRST MANCHURIAN FRONT
(Army Group tasked for Chinese invasion mission out of Eastern Siberia into Manchuria: with two field armies plus an independent airborne division)
SOVIET FIFTEENTH ARMY
(Army based in peacetime in the Far Eastern Military District: three divisions strong for wartime operations)
SOVIET FIFTH ARMY
(Army based in peacetime in the Far Eastern Military District: four divisions strong for wartime operations)
KOREAN FRONT
(Army Group tasked for Chinese invasion mission out of North Korea into Manchuria: with two field armies, one of which is North Korean, plus airborne attachments of regimental size)
SOVIET FIFTY–FIRST ARMY
(Army based in peacetime in the Far Eastern Military District: three divisions strong for wartime operations)
KOREAN NORTHERN ARMY
(Army HQ formed from units in the north of the country: four divisions strong for wartime operations)
SIBERIAN FRONT
(Army Group tasked for follow-up mission inside China behind either the Mongolian Front or the 2nd Manchurian Front)
SOVIET FIRST ARMY
(Army HQ formed from the Thirty-Third Army Corps based in peacetime in the Siberian Military District: three divisions strong for wartime operations)
SOVIET SIXTEENTH ARMY
(Army HQ formed from units based in peacetime in the Urals Military District: three divisions strong for wartime operations)
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Sept 10, 2020 11:46:39 GMT
General ORBAT for a Soviet invasion of China in the late 80s.KAZAKHSTAN FRONT(Army Group tasked for Chinese invasion mission out of Kazakhstan into Xinjiang: with two field armies plus an independent airborne division) SOVIET THIRTY–SECOND ARMY (Army based in peacetime in the Central Asian Military District: four divisions strong for wartime operations) SOVIET FIFTH GUARDS ARMY CORPS (Corps based in peacetime in the Belorussian Military District; four brigades strong and tasked as shock troop for wartime operations) SOVIET SECOND ARMY (Army HQ formed from the Seventeen Army Corps based in peacetime in the Central Asian Military District: three divisions strong for wartime operations) MONGOLIAN FRONT(Army Group tasked for Chinese invasion mission out of Mongolia (country) into Inner Mongolia (in China): with two field armies plus attachments of Mongolia forces) SOVIET TWENTY–NINTH ARMY (Army based in peacetime in the Trans-Baikal Military District: four divisions strong for wartime operations (including cross-attachment from 39th Army) ) SOVIET THIRTY–NINTH ARMY (Army based in peacetime with the Mongolian Group of Forces: four divisions strong for wartime operations) SECOND MANCHURIAN FRONT(Army Group tasked for Chinese invasion mission out of Eastern Siberia into Manchuria: with two field armies plus an independent airborne division) SOVIET THIRTY–SIXTH ARMY (Army based in peacetime in the Trans-Baikal Military District: three divisions strong for wartime operations) SOVIET FORTY–EIGHTH GUARDS ARMY CORPS (Corps based in peacetime in the Trans-Baikal Military District; four brigades strong and tasked as shock troop for wartime operations) SOVIET THIRTY–FIFTH ARMY (Army based in peacetime in the Far Eastern Military District: three divisions strong for wartime operations) FIRST MANCHURIAN FRONT(Army Group tasked for Chinese invasion mission out of Eastern Siberia into Manchuria: with two field armies plus an independent airborne division) SOVIET FIFTEENTH ARMY (Army based in peacetime in the Far Eastern Military District: three divisions strong for wartime operations) SOVIET FIFTH ARMY (Army based in peacetime in the Far Eastern Military District: four divisions strong for wartime operations) KOREAN FRONT(Army Group tasked for Chinese invasion mission out of North Korea into Manchuria: with two field armies, one of which is North Korean, plus airborne attachments of regimental size) SOVIET FIFTY–FIRST ARMY (Army based in peacetime in the Far Eastern Military District: three divisions strong for wartime operations) KOREAN NORTHERN ARMY (Army HQ formed from units in the north of the country: four divisions strong for wartime operations) SIBERIAN FRONT(Army Group tasked for follow-up mission inside China behind either the Mongolian Front or the 2nd Manchurian Front) SOVIET FIRST ARMY (Army HQ formed from the Thirty-Third Army Corps based in peacetime in the Siberian Military District: three divisions strong for wartime operations) SOVIET SIXTEENTH ARMY (Army HQ formed from units based in peacetime in the Urals Military District: three divisions strong for wartime operations) This reminds me of this timeline from the other forum: www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/ashes-of-the-dragon-a-protect-and-survive-tale.350043/ |
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Post by simon darkshade on Sept 12, 2020 19:53:04 GMT
Not really an orbat per se, but: Merchant Marines July 1 1990 1.) Greece: 2321 vessels of 81,976,893t 2.) Japan: 2848 vessels of 80,307,772t 3.) USA: 1138 vessels of 55,107,839t 4.) Norway: 1398 vessels of 55,082,021t 5.) Hong Kong: 664 vessels of 29,705,395t 6.) USSR: 4305 vessels of 29,267,144t 7.) UK: 918 vessels of 25,651,009t 8.) Red China: 1547 vessels of 25,096,228t 9.) South Korea: 581 vessels of 15,717,337t 10.) West Germany: 899 vessels of 12,746,265t unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/rmt1990_en.pdfPage 23 |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Sept 14, 2020 5:55:24 GMT
USA vs China military numbers comparison by The Infographics Show
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Post by simon darkshade on Sept 14, 2020 13:40:55 GMT
That video...there are people who would consider that as military analysis. It started to get funny when they started talking about needing to immediately reinstating the draft and I almost cracked a smile as they ruled out nuclear war.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Sept 14, 2020 14:58:17 GMT
That video...there are people who would consider that as military analysis. It started to get funny when they started talking about needing to immediately reinstating the draft and I almost cracked a smile as they ruled out nuclear war. Also a similar channel compared the U.S. taking on China in a 2020 setting: Is US military strong enough to conquer China on its own? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 15, 2020 12:14:05 GMT
That video...there are people who would consider that as military analysis. It started to get funny when they started talking about needing to immediately reinstating the draft and I almost cracked a smile as they ruled out nuclear war.
Yes. They make the basic error of not defining what is meant by 'win' which is always a sign that the analysis is dodgy. China could 'win' by inflicting severe losses on the US navy and airforce and also regional allies even if it took a battering itself if it undermined both belief in the value of an American guarantee of support and also in the US's willingness to sustain such a conflict. The US could 'win' by inflicting heavy losses on the Chinese economy and infrastructure and defeating a Chinese attack on one of their allies where Taiwan, S Korea, the Philippines or whoever, although the former might be bloody difficult given its size and possible political opposition to some measures - such as an attack on the Three Gorges Dam say. Both sides could come out of a conflict thinking they had won, or lost and both could be accurate or wrong depending on how you define win and how they respond to the conflict.
Agree in terms of the way they dismiss nukes. If there was a nuclear exchange it wouldn't wipe out life on Earth, at least unless the Russians got involved as well but China would suffer very badly and the US would take quite a beating unless it struck 1st or got very lucky. Environmental damage would be huge however as would the economic impact and the political impact on the surviving leaders involved.
Plus it doesn't even consider unconventional warfare. With a tiny fraction if the resources of the Chinese military and a bit of thought you could do a lot of damage to the US, without them probably ever realising they had been attacked. Would take some time and require subtly but then China is the source of The_Art_of_War and unless Xi got stupidly impatient time wouldn't be an issue. I'm not talking abouut anything as clumsy as the Russian bot actions that did so much to get Trump elected in 2016 either. Modern states, especially democratic ones  , are extremely vulnerable to a low level campaign of such action.
Even more so with the other video linked. Why the hell would the US think taking Beijing would be a good idea in a conventional war with China! It's just a very large tar baby that would be an horrendous resource sink to try and hold and is unlikely to make any substantial difference to Chinese resistance unless that was already splintering.
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Post by simon darkshade on Sept 15, 2020 12:47:09 GMT
It simply seems as if their understanding of warfare is from computer games or some other less than optimal source. It all centres on the idea of both parties fighting fair, fighting rationally and fighting without commitments elsewhere.
Nuclear weapons mean that a nuclear-armed state can no longer be defeated in the old terms, although they can be destroyed.
At least the early 2000s chestnut about the Chinese simply using their share of US debt to make them do whatever it wanted.
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, are extremely vulnerable to a low level campaign of such action.