Eagle Guardian: The War of 2010

The trick is with all dictators to get them emotional. Let their emotions determine policy. This means they will ignore strategic and tactical wise decisions for political emotional objectives. Every Blackjack bomber sent to retaliate over CONUS is one that can be shot down and not attacking convoys.

Ninety-Five

The airspace over Eastern Europe was alive with aircraft. AWACS crews in command-&-control aircraft struggled to keep track of what was going on and where, with mistakes being made by both sides. Hundreds of new aircraft with fresh crews had arrived throughout the continent in the past few days.

The US Air Force, along with its Reserve and National Guard counterparts, provided the largest aerial contingent by far, but there was a rush to bring warplanes from non-NATO coalition members into the fray as well. Singapore contributed a squadron of its F-15s, while the Royal Australian Air Force had offered up a squadron of its own jets to NATO’s 1st Allied Tactical Air Force. That offer had been declined; the US had other ideas for the Australians, somewhat closer to home than Europe was. The US Air Force used its A-10s in the Close Air Support (CAS) role while the Royal Air Force deployed its Harrier GR9s similarly; while both of these types of aircraft were immensely effective, they suffered the highest attrition rates of the war due to their slow and vulnerable nature. Neither the American Warthogs nor the British Harriers could be deployed over Belarus as Operation Eclipse continued.

The Spanish Air Force, the Luftwaffe, and the RAF all had their Typhoons up in the air, with most of those aircraft flying as fighters alongside the American F-15s & F-22s but some carrying air-to-ground weapons also. F/A-18s, some from the Spanish Air Force and others from US Navy and Marine Corps fighter squadrons that did not have a ship to fly from, were present in Europe too. The Royal Canadian Air Force had its CF-188s, modified Hornets, flying out of Poland and from Hungary as well as a token number of jets up in Norway. Tornado strike aircraft, again operated by both Germany and the United Kingdom, flew alongside US warplanes in bombing targets through Kaliningrad and Belarus. The Americans had their F-16s & F-15Es carrying out these strikes.

B-1B Lancers were there too, flying from numerous airfields; down in Texas, the old Strategic Air Command facilities were being used, while further east, the B-1Bs were flying from Keflavik Airport in Iceland and from Lajes Airfield in the Azores. Unlike the cumbersome old B-52s, the Lancers could infiltrate enemy airspace with a reasonable chance of survival, while the B-52s had to launch stand-off weapons to have any hope of coming home again. They would, tonight, be striking targets further south with said cruise missiles, but first, a massive series of strikes would target Belarus.
With airfields across Russia’s closest (both diplomatically and geographically) ally being pounded night after night by NATO airpower, 1ATAF commanders felt confident in removing some of their assets from their initial focus on the Offensive Counter-Air (OCA) role, and instead tasking them to strike Russian Lines of Communication running through Belarus. There were Green Berets & SAS on the ground already, and while those units had attacked some supply convoys by themselves, more effective strikes would have to be made using airpower. The presence of NATO Special Forces within Belarus meant that strikes could be guided in more effectively than before.

B-1 Lancers came in at low altitude while F-16s from the US Air Force, the Royal Netherlands Air Force, the Royal Danish Air Force and the Belgian Air Force all carried out defence suppression strikes with their HARM and Shrike anti-radar missile systems. Using Mark-84 bombs, which scattered a huge number of explosive bomblets above a wide area, the Lancers hit the Russians’ Second Guards Army as it traversed westwards towards the front through the Belarusian countryside. Commandos on the ground below would duck for cover before reporting successful strikes and moving in to move up what was left. Tanks and armoured vehicles sometimes survived the bombardments, but vulnerable supply trucks, filled to the brim with ammunition and fuel, were hopelessly vulnerable to attacks from above. The bombers rarely got away unscathed; one B-1B was shot down by a Grumble battery located northwest of Minsk, a site that had been missed by NATO intelligence.

Belarusian Scud missile batteries were another key target for the Coalition. An SAS troop behind the lines managed to destroy several of these with light anti-tank weapons, while additional groups of American, Polish, German and French commandos all successfully directed in laser-guided bombs and missiles onto several hidden launchers. Airfields, though taking a secondary priority behind logistical targets, were struck hard as well from the air. The same major facilities that had been hit before were bombed again. In a controversial measure, 1ATAF commanders switched tactics; they moved to directly target enemy personnel rather than the runways and aircraft hangers. Barracks buildings were blasted to pieces, with that measure being taken to prevent the Belarusians from quickly rebuilding their runways.
Kaliningrad was hit time and time again. The major naval base used by the Russian Baltic Fleet was demolished when B-1Bs again utilised their AGm-154 JSOW munitions, the same type which had obliterated a Russian armoured division several days ago. Airstrips were hit with runway-cratering munitions, while behind the lines, E-8 JSTARS aircraft sought to track Russian communications and establish the whereabouts of enemy command centres so that they too could be taken out with airpower.

The Russian Iskander missile strikes located within the enclave, which had continued to pummel Copenhagen even after the city had been liberated, were deliberately sought out with major effort being put into destroying them. Those weapons had been used conventionally so far, but they were capable of carrying nuclear or chemical warheads, possibly biological ones too, and that threat had to be eliminated before any NATO counteroffensive could take place on the ground.

High above the strike aircraft, NATO fighters again engaged the enemy. There were somewhat fewer Russian and Belarusian fighters in the skies tonight than had been expected. Losses to the Russians and their allies had been extremely severe, with little in the way of reinforcements coming on from further east. Sill, Fulcrums & Flankers rose to meet NATO jets and ferocious dogfights occurred again as they had every day and every night for the past week of the war, with the result being the same as it always was; NATO gained the upper hand, but with many casualties of its own. Commanders on both sides were beginning to rethink their strategies when carrying their air campaigns. Losses were heavy but it seemed too many that little was being achieved for all the pilots killed or captured and all the multi-million dollar aircraft destroyed.

NATO continued to strike the Russian mainland. The US Air Force was not yet ready to launch a direct attack against Moscow, but further targets within mainland Russia had been identified by the Pentagon since yesterday’s attack on the United States. The Russian oil infrastructure in the Caucuses was strategic in nature, an asset that would provide not only fuel for the Russian military on a short-term basis but also post-war, regardless of who won. Oil is the water that armies run on, and Russia could not function without her supplies. Operations were being planned to deal with the Far East and Russian oil supplies there, but tonight would see the expansion of Operation Eclipse into southern Russia. Much of the natural resources within that mountain range were located in neutral Azerbaijan, but there were still targets within Russia aplenty.

The night of August 13th saw Operation Eclipse expanding southwards. The aircraft taking part were almost all from the US Air Force, but the Bulgarian and Romanian Air Forces mounted operations of their own to secure their own airspace and covert the Americans’ retreat. B-52H bombers took off from two separate airfields; RAF Fairford in the United Kingdom, and Sofia Airport in the Bulgarian capital city. The latter facility had a military airbase located on its territory, and most civilian airstrips in Europe had been taken over for wartime uses regardless, leaving the B-52s free to operate from it.

Eighty-seven Tomahawk cruise missiles were launched by US Navy ships belonging to the Stennis aircraft carrier strike group as the B-52s took off and formed up. The cruise missiles came in over the Black Sea, skirting Ukrainian airspace and first targeting Russia’s navy base at Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula, before additional missiles hit the Russian airfields at Krasnodar and Rostov-on-Don. There were a pair of SA-10s that had to be eliminated as well; Tomahawks took care of one of these sites while another Grumble would evade destruction after it was moved before the Tomahawk missile strike.

Following the Navy’s strike package, the B-52s went after Moscow’s southern-based oil supplies. Eleven B-52s were present, each armed with twenty AGM-86 cruise missiles. Some of these weapons were to be held back as a reserve in case any of the B-52s went down before they could hit launch their missiles. There were F-15C Eagles of the US Air Force present over the Black Sea, mounting as fighter sweep over the murky waters to lure out Russian interceptors. F-16s from Aviano in Italy joined them, refuelling over the Adriatic Sea.

The fighter patrols did their job, drawing Russian fighters away from the distant B-52s acting as ‘missile trucks’. MiG-29s from Russia’s Southern Military District and its 4th Air Army raced out over the Black Sea and clashed with the F-15s & F-16s. The Russians had an AWACS of their own orbiting near their border with Georgia, allowing their fighters to be coordinated expertly. The air battle over the Black Sea had been planned as a mere sideshow to distract Russian air defences, but it turned into a major fur-ball. The Americans, using their AIM-120s & AIM-7s, got off the first volley of air-to-air missiles, but they were quickly targeted by the Russians. The fighters clashed at close range with cannons and heat-seeking missiles. Victory, for the US Air Force, was achieved, when a flight of F-15Cs managed to ‘bounce’ the Russian A-50 on the edges of Russian airspace, downing it with an AMRAAM missile before one of their own aircraft was shot by a pursuing Su-30.

AGM-86s from the Air Force B-52s flew fast and low into Russian airspace, avoiding the attention of enemy air defences by flying at extremely low altitude. Despite their terrain-following radars, several missiles would crash into the ground before hitting anything useful. While it made low-level flying a harrowing task and took down several unmanned missiles, the mountainous terrain of southern Russia was useful in protecting the missiles from enemy radars. The first that the 4th Air Army new of the second wave of missile attacks directly on Russian soil was when oil drilling platforms started exploding. The oil burned furiously throughout the night and Russian emergency crews were hard-pressed to deal with the casualties. In all, the Russian Southern Military District had seen its principal naval base, two airfields, a SAM site, and a dozen oil drilling platforms destroyed or heavily damaged, while an A-50 had been shot down along with nine fighter aircraft. All that they could claim for all the losses suffered was the downing of five American fighters.

The potential to miss hydro plants and hit dams instead has to be taken into account.

That's the kind of mistake that spirals into a nuclear exchange 

The OTR-21 has the NATO codename SS-21 Scarab. The Scuds being fired on Warsaw - regular but far less than the first mass waves - are R-17s. Belarus took these out of storage to use them for the war: Russian orders have them firing on Warsaw.

Nope. Demand is elsewhere and the military need on that is pressing. The Poles will be furious and will have much political support requesting that they get help in the form of anti-missile defences, but those systems are needed elsewhere. The situation is unresolved and causing friction among allies. For Moscow, they get a good result of internal NATO dispute all for the use of their obedient allies firing off old & inaccurate weapons.

Ninety–Six

Russia’s CSTO allies in Central Asia had plenty of combat aircraft. Kazakhstan in particular had many Soviet-era aircraft of the same type that Russia and Belarus flew: Flankers & Foxhounds & Fulcrums as well as Fencers & Frogfoots, even Foxbats which had been only-recently retired from Russian Air Force service yet remained effective weapons. Upon the American air attack over Tajikistan where Russian forces inside that country opposite Afghanistan were struck, the Security Council of Russia activated the provisions of not just the CSTO treaty but the Joint CIS Air Defence System too. Demands were made upon allies that they too come to the aid of Tajikistan as they themselves were doing. Lukewarm support from Moscow’s allies in this region for their war in Europe had been the dominant theme in intra-CSTO relations before the Americans attacked, but that changed once war came to them in this manner. Armenia (outside of Central Asia), Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan all answered the call. They would aid Russia in its defence of the wider region against this ‘American aggression’ against two of their partners. On the face of it, this unity on this matter of helping to protect Tajikistan – and Russian forces there at the invitation of the Tajiks –, brought all of these former Soviet states together with their once imperial master again where they too were at war with the Coalition. That wasn’t what they wanted though.

The armed forces of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were small and of little significance: in Central Asia, Russia was the strongest power but followed not that far behind by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in terms of available on-the-ground forces. Those two countries not only sent air units to the effort to help defend Tajikistan (the Uzbeks had a reasonably-sized air force) but also troops as well. Moving them there wasn’t easy yet had been done. What was facing the Coalition forces over the border in Afghanistan to the north was a still-growing and capable defensive force. What it wasn’t though was an offensive force. Russia wasn’t about to lead a CSTO army on the advance towards Kabul. Even if their regional allies had agreed to that, which they surely wouldn’t, there wasn’t the capability to do so in military terms. Instead, Russian and Central Asian troops positioned themselves to guard against incursions coming north. Those might come in the form of an invasion into Tajikistan or maybe further special forces raids: either way, there were defensive measures taken to block those. It wasn’t only Tajikistan which bordered Afghanistan where the Coalition had their ISAF command either. Uzbekistan had a short frontier with that nation and then there was Turkmenistan as well. The Turkmens had a far longer border with Afghanistan and this country was neither a part of CSTO nor the regional air defence system either. In the lead-up to the war, Russia had browbeaten Turkmen cooperation even further than pre-tension bilateral military relations already were. Those thousands of Russian military forces within the country – all de jure serving the interests of Turkmenistan and not Russia – reverted to proper Russian command. Russia would assist the Turkmens in the defence of their country, it had been agreed many years beforehand, and that now became the case now. Aircraft in Turkmen Air Force colours joined those in the skies over Central Asia engaged in defensive missions and responded to the multinational air defence network (aircraft, bases, missiles, radars & command-and-control) that the CSTO countries were part of.

These actions of the Central Asian nations saw the Coalition regarded them as active participants in a war against them just as Belarus and Transnistria were. Diplomatic relations were cut, trade links were shut off – this would really hurt all of them – and formal notifications were made that they were considered to be at war. They hadn’t signed up for this but had been dragged in all while undertaking their mutual security commitments when one of their number had been the victim of an attack.

Under centralised ISAF control, reporting to General McChrystal, the Coalition had their own aircraft in the region. The Americans had two of their Expeditionary Air Wings inside Afghanistan which included F-15s (the multirole Strike Eagle variant), F-16s, Predator & Reaper drones and US Marines jets attached to them too. The big air strike on Tajikistan had been conducted by B-52s which were based off in far off Diego Garcia. No further B-52 bomb-runs came in the following days, but there was more conventional air action conducted by ISAF air forces into Tajikistan and also Uzbekistan as well. Fighter sweeps were undertaken and ‘limited’ air strikes were made. Russian and CSTO air power was targeted along with its missile defences. The Americans weren’t alone with this. The RAF had a squadron of Tornado GR4s in Afghanistan, aircraft that the British really wanted to have flying over European skies. They remained in Afghanistan though, flying combat missions into Tajikistan alongside the Americans. Furthermore, from bases in Iraq and Kuwait, the Americans had more aircraft which were there to support what was supposed to have been the last months of the United States’ military presence in Iraq. Some of them were going to have to stay, providing important air cover for troops there battling a reinvigorated insurgency, but others were going to be transferred to ISAF control. CENTCOM had been informed that air and ground reinforcements weren’t going to be sent to the Middle East at this time because of the pressing need for reinforcements for Eastern Europe unless there was a significant change in the geo-political situation. That was happening over in Libya and there was concern too over Syria’s intentions. This meant that what was in the wider region would have to be moved about, robbing Peter to pay Paul, instead of relying upon incoming combat assets from overseas. More Strike Eagles were transferred up from Iraq leaving the many A-10s in-place there to support the ongoing fighting which was left behind.


In the skies above where aircraft clashed yet without anywhere near the intensity of those occurring above Eastern Europe, there was fighting on the ground too. Combat was seen on the northern borders of Afghanistan and inside as well.

Cross-border skirmishing from Tajikistan and now Uzbekistan continued. It wouldn’t be long before that included Turkmenistan too. Russian forces engaged in low-level (compared to how things were in Europe) combat with American and British forces all along the frontiers. Artillery shelling, launching of tactical missiles and raids went on. Both the 7th Guards Air Assault & 201st Motor Rifle Divisions were involved in this alongside a large Spetsnaz contingent too. Behind them, CSTO forces were arrayed in their defensive positions yet not yet having seen action. Opposing the Russians in this fight, doing back what was being done to them, were the 10th Mountain Division, the 4th UK Mechanised Brigade and the 3rd Marine Regiment. The latter American unit was actually a Regimental Combat Team while the former consisted of two organic brigades of the 10th Mountain as well as two more from additional divisions part of the ISAF rotation. When it came to the British, their brigade was a ‘medium’ unit in terms of capability though that wasn’t a term the British Army would use. There was light armour, a lot of infantry and also Royal Marines with 40 Commando present: a battalion of Gurkhas had left Afghanistan days before the war started and flown back to the UK rather than stay here. All of these troops on the two opposing sides were fighting on Afghanistan’s borders with deaths and injuries occurring. Munitions expenditure was immense and so too was the rate of destruction of equipment. The Russians had troops behind them from their so-called allies yet couldn’t really count on them as any form of reinforcement; ISAF’s frontline troops had friendly troops behind them but they were busy where they were.

Many here in this fight were calling this a forgotten war because they were out here seemingly all alone unsupported. That might not have been the case, but it sure felt that way for those on the ground.

Russian special forces had yet to go into Afghanistan. There was the intention to send in some Spetsnaz detachments to cause trouble though they really weren’t needed to do that. The Taliban was doing that all by themselves. They were fighting other ISAF forces which included many NATO troops from across Europe attached to three combat brigades in the form of the French 27th Mountain Infantry, the German 31st Airborne and Polish 25th Air Cavalry in addition to two American national guard brigades as well. All five of those formations were split up across the country engaged in combat to varying degrees against a dedicated enemy who were under no illusion that this was the only chance they were ever going to really have to win here. The Taliban, long said to be on its last legs yet an opponent which just never died out, gave it their everything. Many previous strict rules of engagement which several European nations followed – to the ire of the Americans who had very relaxed ROE – had been thrown out of the window. The situation with the Poles here in Afghanistan was something of note. They wanted to be back home, fighting to directly defend their country. Instead, they were half a world away fighting for someone else’s… just as their own many allies were doing for theirs though.

Help Azerbaijan against Armenia?Let the others know the price of taking Russias side is your enemies are now our friends.