Eagle Guardian: The War of 2010

Part One


One

Early August 2008 saw world attention focused on several key matters. The Beijing Olympics were about to begin over in China and these Summer Games had seen much spending upon them with a lot of hype & expectation for their start. In the United States, Barack Obama and John McCain were in the midst of their campaigns for the upcoming November’s presidential election: the conventions for each were weeks away with running mates for each yet to be chosen. The world economy was something else paid attention to. There had been some serious issues in the West with the state of the financial markets and there was a lot of worry about how this was going to go. Alongside these matters, and a lot of other ongoing things, attention was certainly not being paid to a little corner of the world called South Ossetia.

That would rapidly change though.

Tiny little Georgia chose this time to get into a war with big bad Russia. The Russo-Georgia War was due to a long series of historic events dating back a century. Two regions of Georgia had broken away in the early Nineties following the collapse of the Soviet Union and were semi-independent from Georgia while strongly tied to Russia. Throughout 2008 leading up to that fatal August, tensions increased further than they had in many other years and led to a conflict beginning on the night of August 7th when Georgia struck into one of them – South Ossetia – in an invasion. Georgia claimed this was a police action. Russia disagreed, especially since its apparent peacekeepers there on the ground came under fire. The South Ossetians quickly took a beating yet by the very next morning, Russia was on the counterattack. Their forces from just over the mountains, inside Russian-owned North Ossetia and further across the Caucasus, pushed forward in an offensive which retook South Ossetia and charged towards Georgia proper. Moreover, through the second breakaway region of Georgia in the form of Abkhazia, further Russian forces passed through there too also into Georgia. From the north and northwest, Georgia was under attack. Much of the country’s armed forces were abroad, serving in Iraq with the American-led multinational force there. The rest of them were overwhelmed. They fell back fast and fled from a Russian assault which overcame resistance from ill-prepared men within days.

On the ground, the Russian move into Georgia was spearheaded by forward elements of the Fifty–Eighth Army commanded by Lt.-General Khrulyov. He had led exercises which had concluded only at the end of July up in the Caucasus where such an operation was practised. Those war games were followed to the letter in how the offensive was conducted. At high-readiness and knowing what they were doing, Khrulyov’s men rolled into South Ossetia and then Georgia just as they were meant to. The general was with them. His mobile forward command column went under the Roki Tunnel beneath the mountains and through the recaptured small city of Tskhinvali which was the South Ossetian capital. Close to the disputed frontier with Georgia, this collection of armoured vehicles and trucks came very close to coming under fire and being halted. It passed the scene of a localised Georgia tactical counterattack by their commandos to cover their retreat. Twenty minutes later, Khrulyov would have been caught up in this (*P.O.D*); that ambush struck a company of veteran riflemen instead of the lightly-armed command staff. Khrulyov crossed into Georgia behind his men out ahead. Onwards they went, doing what they were supposed to do. His communications back with his own commander over the mountains were patchy though there was no reason for him to expect an order to stop advancing. The advance guard of the Fifty-Eighth Army was marching on Tbilisi just as planned in those war games done the previous month.

The town of Gori was bypassed during this offensive as the lead elements of the Fifty–Eighth Army followed the main east-west running highway across the middle of Georgia when going east before then turning southwards and rolling down towards the country’s capital. Late morning of August 12th witnessed the first Russian tanks begin to approach the outskirts; they’d taken a four-hour drive across the middle of Georgia and faced delusory opposition. Yet, Tbilisi was (wrongly) expected to be strongly defended and Khrulyov was ready for that. He re-established contact his higher command to ask for extra air support – this had been rather inadequate during the war so far but he wanted anything he could get – and reported where he was. Where? He was there, that far ahead! Up at Rostov-on-Don, the North Caucasus Military District’s headquarters couldn’t believe that in such a short space of time, Khrulyov had got so far. What of Georgian opposition on the way? What was ahead of him? The Fifty–Eighth Army’s commander told Rostov where he was, where his lead combined arms regimental group was after going past Georgians running away and asked for that air support. He was promised it. Khrulyov acknowledged that – doubting that the Su-25 attack-fighters would show up no matter what was said; he was later correct in that too – and told his superior he was to going to complete his mission. Rostov gave no objection.

Within hours, Russian tanks and other armoured vehicles were in Tbilisi. The main road ran through the centre of the city and beyond towards Georgia’s southern borders with Armenia and Azerbaijan. That same highway also went to the country’s international airport (beside it the TAM aviation manufacturing plant) and two of its major military airbases. This was the route followed in a lightning advance. Tbilisi Airport was taken by Khrulyov’s men and so too was the Vaziani military base; the Marneuli military complex wasn’t reached in time. This wasn’t because of opposition on the ground but politics instead. Nonetheless, Tbilisi itself was in Russian hands before Khrulyov’s forces came to a halt. Inside the city, there were few defenders and most of them did what others elsewhere had done in the face of the Fifty–Eighth Army: fire a few shots and run. Khrulyov put two regiments into the Tbilisi fight: the second one had moved on but the first had visible control of the city where they were ‘sightseeing’. These men were with 19th Division based up at Vladikavkaz and were regular soldiers. They were here in number and strength but behaved as they established themselves as the occupier while being outside government buildings, landmarks and telecommunications sites though not going inside those nor molesting civilians. The whole world would soon be seeing them and what they were doing, so they followed orders to not to do anything untoward when in the public eye.


The war had taken the world by surprise though there were quickly many international efforts at diplomacy to bring it to a stop. Finding South Ossetia, even Georgia on a map was difficult for many. The issues were the issues but what was important was to stop the fighting. Many world leaders were in Beijing at the time it started and while some met there, others travelled either home or elsewhere. The French President, Nicholas Sarkozy, was among those who sought an immediate end to the war. He had spoken with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in the Chinese capital and was told that that Russia was defending itself and restoring order. Russia was the victim here against Georgian aggression. Sarkozy went to Moscow to meet with Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian President. Speaking on behalf of France, but also for the European Union too due to France holding the rotating presidency of that organisation, Sarkozy made much effort into getting the war to stop. The United States was doing the same. President George Bush and his Secretary of State, Condi Rice, too wanted the war to cease. From where he had fled to at Marneuli, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili was begging the Americans to save him. He wanted Washington to stop the invasion of his country. The Americans spoke of helping to fly home Georgian troops from Iraq and of arranging for a ceasefire, but this wasn’t what Saakashvili wanted. He called for direct American military intervention against Russian forces inside Georgia. That wasn’t going to happen despite some speculative discussions in the White House on how that might occur if done.

Sarkozy was talking with Medvedev and on the verge of getting him to agree to a ceasefire, with Medvedev stating that that only would be done once the Georgians agreed too, when news came that there were Russian tanks in Tbilisi. CNN was showing live footage of events there. Sarkozy had been talking with the Russian President for several days where Medvedev had told him that Russian forces were just protecting South Ossetia and themselves. They weren’t overrunning all of Georgia. Now they were in Tbilisi and doing nothing like that had been mentioned here in Moscow. Outraged, Sarkozy put it to his host that he had been duped. Medvedev denied that. He made his excuses, broke of discussions for a few hours and then came back to someone he had called his ‘honoured guest’. Russian forces were no longer advancing and Medvedev was now agreeing to ceasefire with only minimal conditions. Sarkozy took him at his word this time, believing that they had re-established trust. Rice left Brussels where she had been meeting with NATO representatives once the French sent word that the Russians were saying they were no longer advancing and she flew into Georgia, landing at Marneuli. This airbase had been bombed several days before and showed much war damage. Russian tanks were less than a dozen miles away from here too. Saakashvili met her there and Rice was convinced that if she hadn’t personally confirmed that there was a ceasefire, he would have gotten on her aircraft to try to leave Georgia. His country looked lost and he was a frightened, even broken man. She got him to talk and sign a copy of a ceasefire agreement once that was sent to Marneuli. It covered a withdrawal of Russian forces done in stages, a return of prisoners of war and an agreement for later direct Russian-Georgian talks.

The war was over with the ceasefire agreed late on August 12th, less than six tumultuous days after it had started.


While officially that was the case, all sorts of incidents took place which would be in legal terms direct violations of that ceasefire that had been agreed. Russian pulled Khrulyov’s men out of Tbilisi quickly enough though elsewhere there were delays taking place. Communications difficulties and Georgian provocations, Moscow said. There were shooting incidents of a smaller scale as well. It wouldn’t be until the end of the month until the majority of the Russian forces were back near to South Ossetia rather than far out across Georgia and with it looking likely that at this rate, it wouldn’t be until late September before the would the last of them leave the country.

Among the ceasefire violations was the Senaki Massacre.

Senaki was a town in western Georgia, close to the disputed frontier with Abkhazia. There was a military base outside of there, one which had been occupied by Russian forces separate from Khrulyov’s Fifty–Eighth Army in the form of paratroopers moving in trucks and light armoured vehicles. In addition, there were ‘volunteers’ here too. The conflict in and just outside Abkhazia wasn’t a sideshow to the Russo-Georgian War despite much indifference elsewhere to what went on there. The war started over South Ossetia yet it involved this second breakaway region too in the lead-up. As was the case with South Ossetia, recently rehearsed Russian military operations with regard to Abkhazia were directly followed. Abkhazian forces fought the Georgians inside their territory while Russian forces moved through and into Georgia proper. They advanced down the Black Sea coast – taking the port of Poti on the way – as well as inland. The Georgians fought skirmishes in places yet ran elsewhere. Around Senaki, the remains of a Georgian company-sized force of reservists numbering almost eighty men had been rounded up after their withdrawal had been cut off by those Russian Airborne Troops. These men had been disarmed and pushed into the rear where they ended up at Senaki. Guards were found for them and these turned out to be a group of Don Cossacks who were Russian nationalistic volunteers who’d come here to fight and come in a hurry. One of the Georgians tried to run from their custody and was struck down. Other prisoners joined in with a fight commencing which saw lives were lost on both sides. Without the knowledge of higher authority, the sternest of measures was taken in response. A dozen of the Georgians were selected by the volunteer militia to be shot as collective punishment. These men were taken away from the others into a separate part of the military base and the Cossacks did so with haste as they lined them up & shot the twelve men, some of which were visibly wounded too. They had no idea that from afar someone was filming them doing this while watching in shock at their fellow Georgians being massacred in violation against all the laws of war. Abkhazia and Russia would only find out later what those volunteers had done and try to cover everything up. They had no idea of the civilian who’d filmed this all from his bedroom window.

That Russian withdrawal from Georgia being staggered and done in the form that it was enraged many elsewhere. Sarkozy had left Moscow believing in Medvedev. The Fifty–Eighth Army, plus those Airborne Troops near the coast, took their time in leaving while destroying military facilities & captured equipment on the way. This was all dragged out for purposes which suited Russia. The West wasn’t able to have a window into things going on there at the top when Putin had returned from Beijing and disagreed with what Medvedev had done therefore seeing to it that what he wanted to be done down there in Georgia occurred during the withdrawal. All they saw was this behaviour where the Russians weren’t doing what they had agreed to do. The United States joined with France in condemnation of ‘Russian games’ and were displeased at what came when the Russian Parliament decided to recognise the independence of both Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The next day, Medvedev publicly signed a decree to complete that recognition, stating that Russia was supporting the democratic will of those people in those two regions plus its own parliament’s wishes. Questions over missing prisoners – those Georgians massacred were only known to be missing – and also deaths of two foreign journalists (one Canadian and one Dutch) which the Russians refused to provide answers to kept feelings high.

On August 31st, France’s TF1 news channel broadcast the video tape from Georgia of the Senaki Massacre. The footage had been ‘cleaned up’ a bit but it showed what happened. This was soon being shown across much of the world. Sweden’s foreign minister had recently directly compared Russia’s actions when giving passports to those in Abkhazia and South Ossetia to those people living there – done pre-war – to that behaviour done by the Nazis before World War Two to what they had called Germans abroad. Repeats of these comments were made alongside images showing the uniforms of those Don Cossacks who did look similar to Nazis… especially when giving a raised-arm salute and shooting wounded prisoners. This was the final straw for many countries. Georgia’s previously expressed concerns over missing personnel which had been brushed aside with belief that nothing bad could have happened to them were now given full attention. Saakashvili – who’d recovered from his terrible state when at Marneuli meeting Rice – accused Russian of directly sanctioning these ‘murders’ and stated that they had been done post-ceasefire too.

Economic sanctions were announced. These came from the European Union (pushed by Britain and France in the face of concerns from Germany and Italy), the United States, Canada and several other Western countries. For several weeks, these had been in the offing yet not imposed due to those disagreements on them between several countries. The footage of the Senaki Massacre drastically changed things though. They were those which would affect certain trade issues with Russia and were going to implemented in haste. They weren’t going to bring Russia to its knees but they couldn’t be ignored either. The announcement of them was made on the morning of September 15th… the same morning that the Wall Street financial firm Lehman Brothers went bankrupt as the subprime mortgage crisis in America hit home hard. The resulting panic in the markets followed and focused attention in the West on that, rather than an angry reaction which came from Moscow. Russia decried those sanctions as it did too the ‘fake news’ coming from that ‘staged’ video tape. It was all lies! It was all a Georgian frame-up! Putin, not Medvedev, spoke of retaliation with Russia’s own sanctions to be imposed too in a like-for-like fashion. Furthermore, Russia also announced that due to this Georgian action with such lies, which was thus declared to be a violation of the ceasefire agreement apparently, it wouldn’t be leaving the last areas of its self-declared ‘security zone’ inside Georgia.

Russian would stay on Georgian soil and the West wouldn’t be able to do anything about that.

Thanks for this what i can only hope will be another mega thread James G and forcon .

China will be very upset, they have take her spot in the internationatl stage with the olympics after all their work.

More seriously, Berlusconi during the crisis was very pro-Putin (he consider him a personal friend and good business associates), but even he and the other Putin friends can't do much if the video is pubblic and the same for the more prudent member of the EU...so we have sanction and a somewhat more hard stance (will make people in the former communist east europe feel more safe).

Arab spring, Gret Recession and the Greece debt crisis loom at the horizon and how will develop with the coming war, will be worse, better or even avoided or totally different from OTL? Hell, Gheddafi and Kim can become Putin new best friends/allies

Thanks for the interest so far; update #2 will be posted by me later today!

Nice update forcon and of course you as well James G, also forcon, you can now call yourself a Holder of the Grand Order of the Master Writer.

Good start; looking forward to more, of course...

I’m hooked!