oldbleep
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Post by oldbleep on Mar 20, 2019 22:43:51 GMT
Also strikes on hydro-electric plants that supply refineries that losing electricity can ruin factories
"According to Article 56 of the 1977 Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions, “works or installations containing dangerous forces, namely dams, dikes and nuclear electrical generating stations, shall not be made the object of attack, even when these objects are military objectives, if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population.”
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James G
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Post by James G on Mar 21, 2019 8:34:30 GMT
Help Azerbaijan against Armenia?Let the others know the price of taking Russias side is your enemies are now our friends. That is very possible in the medium term, yes. Good update; BTW, congrats at reaching 200k words, with many more to come, of course... Thank you. We have written loads with plenty more to come indeed.
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James G
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Post by James G on Mar 21, 2019 8:35:14 GMT
Also strikes on hydro-electric plants that supply refineries that losing electricity can ruin factories"According to Article 56 of the 1977 Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions, “works or installations containing dangerous forces, namely dams, dikes and nuclear electrical generating stations, shall not be made the object of attack, even when these objects are military objectives, if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population.” This is something I certainly did not know.
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Dan
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Post by Dan on Mar 21, 2019 14:27:23 GMT
No repeat of the Dambusters Raid. Let's hope the Russians have read that paragraph too.
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James G
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Post by James G on Mar 21, 2019 15:09:43 GMT
No repeat of the Dambusters Raid. Let's hope the Russians have read that paragraph too. 617 Squadron are flying combat missions in this conflict but no dams, yes.
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forcon
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Post by forcon on Mar 21, 2019 17:02:46 GMT
Ninety-Seven
The prevailing few in Moscow was that the war had been won. The Russian Army’s advance had been stopped cold and NATO airstrikes had taken place in the Caucuses, around St Petersburg, and up near Murmansk as well. Nevertheless, the goals set by the high command had been reached. NATO units in Poland were badly beaten-up and several brigades had been destroyed completely. Thousands of NATO soldiers, including Americans, Brits, Germans, Poles, and some French, were in the custody of the MVD and could be used as hostages. An American aircraft carried had been sunk; dangerous officials within the Obama Administration were dead, and the United States had been shown that conventional attacks against its heartland were well within the capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces.
All the tens of thousands of dead and wounded young men had been worth it to achieve those things. Nobody in Moscow had ever thought that Russia could fight NATO on even terms and win a long-term battle. However, what Putin and his junta sought to do, was not to fight and win an even battle, but instead to rapidly make significant military gains and then offer peace on favourable terms, making it too costly for NATO to continue. There was no doubt that the United States would want to keep up the fight, along with France, Great Britain, and Poland. However, would Germany or Holland risk further bloodshed for the sake of the Baltic States? The goal was to get nations like Germany and the Low Countries to back off and seek a peaceful solution to the conflict. If Germany or Belgium withdrew from the war, how would NATO keep its forces in Poland supplied, after all?
Putin’s Security Council debated the possible terms of a peace offer. Those had been drawn up pre-war, but given how the situation differed from what had been planned for, the terms needed revising. Successes in Norway had occurred which hadn’t been truly expected at the highest levels of government. On the other hand, the dramatic loss in Copenhagen and the naval losses in the Pacific had been unforeseen as well. Nevertheless, Moscow felt that it had enough standing to offer peace terms to NATO and have them accept.
The Alliance was fragile, it was still believed; Italy, Greece, and Turkey were sitting out the war while the SVR reported that NATO nations in Europe were reconsidering their commitment to the alliance. The threat of a colour revolution in Russia had been greatly reduced if not eliminated, and the NATO troops that would have been used to support that revolution and possibly occupy the Rodina after the government had fallen had been driven back deep into Poland, leaving NATO unable to push those forces forwards for at least several weeks. Another corps-sized formation, the 2nd Guards Army, was moving through Belarus and that formation would be followed by the 41st Army and then by units from the Southern Military District as well as, eventually, the Far Eastern District.
Though an equally massive number of NATO troops were being moved towards the front, a counteroffensive by NATO would cost tens of thousands of American and European lives and would be the nail in the coffin of the global economy, which had already begun to crash even before the first shots of the war had been fired. Ports, airfields and power stations alike throughout NATO nations had been destroyed or severely damaged and those would be needed in peacetime as well as in wartime; further destruction of facilities such as those would be even more crippling for the more war-weary Alliance members.
With all this taken into account, a peace offer was made by President Putin.
The offer was given privately rather than in public. It was thought that there was a possibility that it could be kept quiet and so if NATO chose to rebuff the offer, that wouldn’t be known by Russian allies or potential future allies. A neutral, if pro-Western, country was chosen to be the site of the offer. When the correct documents had been drawn up, the SVR took over the job of informing several Western governments. This was done in Bangkok. SVR operatives from the Russian embassy passed the peace terms on to the embassies of the United States, Great Britain, and France. Separate documents offering private concessions were given to the Dutch, Danish, German, Belgian, and Spanish governments, with the emphasis on any of those nations getting oil and natural gasses at a greatly discounted price if they chose to cease fighting.
The terms of the deal handed over to the embassies in Thailand was quickly read over and analysed by CIA, MI6 & DGSE officers before being sent back for more detailed analysis. All three agencies wanted to learn whatever they could from examination of the terms and their specific wording. There was an element of mistrust too, with the Americans wishing to keep the offer secret from several smaller NATO nations in case they chose to take the peace offer and withdrew from the conflict. The need for cooperation won out eventually, but there were concerns nonetheless. The terms of the ceasefire agreement offered by Moscow were hard to swallow indeed.
Should the deal be accepted, there would be an immediate ceasefire. Both sides would withdraw from offensive positions and take a defensive stance while negotiations were carried out. Russia would accept peace if the United States, Britain, France, Germany, and other NATO nations withdrew their armed forces from Poland, and Moscow would agree to pull its own forces back from Polish soil as well. Norway would be left alone and the air campaigns being mounted by either side would cease.
The Baltic States would have their majority-Russian regions join Russia. What was left of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania would remain under Russian ‘protection’ with Russian troops stationed on their territory for the foreseeable future. No US forces would be allowed to be based further east than the Oder River. NATO would have to dismantle its nuclear-sharing programme and although the US, Britain, and France would obviously be keeping their own nuclear weapons, none of these were to be based anywhere in Europe outside of the respective nuclear powers’ territory.
All Russian and Belarusian POWs would be returned from NATO captivity within two weeks, and Russia would release all NATO POWs over the course of a month, with the POWs in Russian custody being vetted and certain ‘criminal elements’ remaining in Russia to face trial. All economic sanctions on Russia put in place by Western powers were to be lifted with immediate effect, and agreements would have to be made for Western European powers to purchase more of their natural gases from Russia.
Putin had known full-well that despite what the nationalists in his government said, those terms were never going to be accepted by NATO. The harshness of the terms was for the purpose of allowing Russia to negotiate downwards, with Moscow being put in a position where it could say that it had given up much, and still come out on top. The retention of certain geographic areas of the Baltic States as well as the lifting of economic sanctions were the two areas which Russia would refuse to compromise. Russia’s Security Council, now effectively a military junta, was certain that many European Coalition members would accept the terms and cease hostilities. Even if the United States wished to continue fighting, without Germany or the Low Countries it would become logistically impossible for the NATO campaign to continue. However, in many Western countries the revelation that Putin had had the arrogance to offer peace on such terms would only serve to swing public attitude in favour of the war. There would always be groups and individuals who saw Moscow’s offer as a way out, but the vast majority of Westerners wanted to continue the fight until NATO forces reached Moscow. This was impossible due to Russia’s nuclear arsenal, but NATO commanders felt that, so long as the Coalition held together, they would have the forces in place to begin a massive counteroffensive and throw the Russian Army back to its own borders by the end of the month.
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lordbyron
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Post by lordbyron on Mar 21, 2019 17:38:06 GMT
Yeah, Putin, there ain't any way NATO would accept your terms, especially given that you started the war by assassinating the American president (1) and secretary of state; this thinking is right up there with the Japanese thinking that the Allies would accept a peace treaty after the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor...
I suspect the majority of African-Americans, Hispanics, etc. will support the war (I'm surprised there haven't been more riots against Russian-majority neighborhoods in the US, like Brighton Beach in Brooklyn) in part because the first African-American president was murdered by the enemy on the first day...
WIs about Obama and his murder will be popular postwar ITTL, methinks; there will also be WIs on Clinton's survival...
(1) Obama will viewed the same as JFK was after his assassination; many will wonder what Obama could have accomplished (Hillary Clinton will get this treatment, too, to a lesser extent)...
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sandyman
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Post by sandyman on Mar 21, 2019 18:24:15 GMT
Hope fully NATO will have a large set of dangaling bits and say no bugger off I can see Germany wavering along with the Dutch and Belgium’s.
Great update by the way any chance of me using my shot gun again in thinking Infantry mode trench clearing after all it is a trench gun lol
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James G
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Post by James G on Mar 21, 2019 18:31:19 GMT
Hope fully NATO will have a large set of dangaling bits and say no bugger off I can see Germany wavering along with the Dutch and Belgium’s. Great update by the way any chance of me using my shot gun again in thinking Infantry mode trench clearing after all it is a trench gun lol There maybe some countries which waver though not in public. This matter of the ceasefire offer will be covered over several upcoming updates including a rather strong response: I promise it will be something special. Erm... I killed you at SHAPE...
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crackpot
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Post by crackpot on Mar 21, 2019 19:24:54 GMT
Hope fully NATO will have a large set of dangaling bits and say no bugger off I can see Germany wavering along with the Dutch and Belgium’s. Great update by the way any chance of me using my shot gun again in thinking Infantry mode trench clearing after all it is a trench gun lol There maybe some countries which waver though not in public. This matter of the ceasefire offer will be covered over several upcoming updates including a rather strong response: I promise it will be something special. Erm... I killed you at SHAPE... If you could avoid nuking the bejesus our of Rhode Island in this timeline I would greatly appreciate it. 😃
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James G
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Post by James G on Mar 21, 2019 19:39:31 GMT
There maybe some countries which waver though not in public. This matter of the ceasefire offer will be covered over several upcoming updates including a rather strong response: I promise it will be something special. Erm... I killed you at SHAPE... If you could avoid nuking the bejesus our of Rhode Island in this timeline I would greatly appreciate it. 😃 I cannot commit to such a promise. Forcon might make that promise: he would accept a cookie or two for not doing so.
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James G
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Post by James G on Mar 21, 2019 19:54:32 GMT
Ninety–Eight
Barack Obama’s funeral took place on August 13th. It took part in three phases and all of it was deemed a National Security Special Event. The security was therefore immense, totally unprecedented compared to any previous NSSE such as those following 9-11 or Obama’s inauguration.
There had been Russian military attacks against the United States’ soil last Friday night and again yesterday. Obama’s successor, much of the government and a plethora of foreign dignitaries were attending the funeral. A missile attack or another commando assault were feared, maybe even the ‘usual’ threat of a lone assassin. Aircraft, troops and even warships off the Eastern Seaboard were present as part of the immense security effort undertaken. Some suggestions had been made earlier in the week that maybe Obama’s funeral could be delayed… suggestions which were shot down. America would bury its dead president a week after he was slain and would not be forced to delay that due to foreign threats.
The first part of the funeral took place in Chicago early in the morning. This had been Obama’s adopted city, where he had started his political career. A private service was held in Illinois for family, friends and close associates. It wasn’t televised despite many media wishes for it to be so. This was a time for private grief. Biden was there. He was flown to Chicago by Air Force One and then made the last part of the journey to the church service by Marine One: Obama had been killed while aboard another ‘Marine One’, something on many people’s minds. The new president spent some with Obama’s family there and then afterwards – through travelling by car with them back to O’Hare International Airport rather than them all going by helicopter – the former president’s immediate family accompanied Biden as they too flew on Air Force One back to DC with him.
The service at Washington National Cathedral was the biggest event of the day. It was a stage-managed affair and went off as planned. Here was the United States showing the world how it was responding to the life and death of its slain forty-fourth president. Those many dignitaries were here – domestic and foreign – and the media was present. Several speakers were called upon and those included John McCain (who’d run against Obama for the presidency two years ago) as well as colleagues from Obama’s time teaching, in his political career and as president. Then Biden spoke. He talked of his friend Obama and his president Obama. It was an emotionally-charged speech by the nation’s forty-fifth president. Cameras within the National Cathedral might have caught a tear or two in his eye. One image beamed around the world – this event was being broadcast live – was that of Obama’s wife and two young daughters when Biden spoke of their father being a dedicated family man. The camera lingered on them for what seemed like a far longer time than it actually did. The global implications of this couldn’t be understated.
Then, Biden turned to Obama’s death. He didn’t use the name ‘Russia’. He didn’t use the term ‘assassination’. He spoke instead of ‘criminals’ and an ‘act of murder’. His final comments promised ‘vengeance’ for the killing of his predecessor.
At Arlington National Cemetery, the third part of the funeral was held. Obama was buried here over in Virginia and within sight of Washington. Though he’d never served his country in uniform, he’d died while commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces and thus was entitled to have his final resting place at Arlington. Yet, he didn’t have to be buried here. He could have been buried in Chicago or even in Hawaii. Few presidents were buried at Arlington. The final resting place of John Kennedy was at Arlington though and so to would be that of Obama. Each of them had been assassinated when in their prime. There was no planned resting place at presidential museums ‘waiting’ for them before their murders as was the unsaid case with other former president’s. The Obama family gave ultimate consent for him to be buried here at Arlington though it was said by many that they were pushed into agreeing to that for the sake of the country. Whether that was true or baloney, this was where Obama was finally laid to rest.
America had buried its president. There were many others who would be needing funerals too – none of which was as symbolic as this but just as important to those involved – because as this event took place, the fighting continued across (selected areas of) the world as the Third World War continued.
During the service at the National Cathedral, Anthony Zinni had received the news of Russian shenanigans with their ceasefire offer. The retired general who was serving as Biden’s National Security Adviser didn’t interrupt his president when he was speaking and discretely informed him afterwards without drawing any real attention to this. Biden had questions at once and would be further briefed on this on the way to Arlington and then later in the day too when he was at the White House meeting with his National Security Council down in the Situation Room. Present at that meeting would also be vice president designate John Kerry – Congress was holding up his confirmation to the ire of many; they were doing the same with Mark Warner regarding the secretary of state role yet had already confirmed Sam Nunn as secretary of defence – and also House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who was currently second-in-line to the presidency in terms of succession.
Rejection, complete refutation, was at once the decision taken. The United States would not accept Putin’s offer or any version of it. America would additionally take the lead in ensuring that its allies in the Coalition would do the same with every effort made to make sure that none broke ranks with this. Discussions were had on the manner of the refusal to accede to Russian demands: Biden made it clear that he wished for more than just a verbal or written rejection was sent to the Kremlin, especially after yesterday’s events around Washington. There was already planning underway for a top-secret military action deemed Operation Twilight and this was something that he ordered a speeding up in terms of timeframe plus also gave his firm seal of approval to over the raised hesitations of some others.
Operation Twilight would occur tomorrow.
There were many foreign visitors who had come to Washington for both the funerals of Clinton yesterday and Obama today. Heads of state, heads of governments, ministers and other VIPs had arrived. Biden had been busy and not been able to see all of them though had made time for those who it was decided that he really needed to speak with leaving others to meet with further figures in his administration. Just some of the many who’d come to Washington included presidents from Germany, Israel, Italy and Mexico along with prime ministers from Britain, Canada, Japan, the Netherlands and Spain. Foreign ministers from countries such as Australia, Belgium, Egypt, France, Indonesia, India, Norway and Poland were here. This was in no way an exhaustive list. There were members of royal families from across the world too where they represented their countries as well as their politicians did. Former important leaders from across the globe also came. The security set-up around all of these people was just as immense as that around the funeral.
While initially not planned to be this way, the gathering of so many important people who represented many of those nations which were part of the Coalition here in Washington at the time of Obama’s funeral gave rise to an impromptu summit. Almost all of the Coalition nations had someone senior here in the American capital. There was some belief, later which Kerry told Biden that he was certain was the case, that the Russian ceasefire offer had been timed to see that it could be discussed in Washington by these gathered notables. Neither Zinni nor Nunn agreed with that assessment though. Nonetheless, talks were untaken with those physically occurring at the State Department and also Blair House. The United States was still in a state of official national mourning and thus there was no fanfare with these meetings of politicians and diplomats as otherwise might be the case. These matters were secret. Conversations over the phone took place with leaders not present in Washington too.
The same thing was said over and over again: there would be no acceptance of what Russia was offering. An end to the war was sought, but it would certainly not be on Putin’s terms. No overt comments were made of anyone wavering from this shared position though there was concern expressed from several representatives present or in communication from overseas that Russian propaganda would try to go over their heads to their people directly. Anti-war opposition, some of it violent, had occurred in several nations already. Strategies were discussed as to how to help each other where possible with this with the Europeans especially agreeing to do what they could to help each other there: Russian propaganda needed to be shut down from reaching their peoples. Points were raised by some people that this was just an excuse by others to consider a discussion more than just plain rejection yet those were only suspicions and couldn’t be proved.
As to Biden, he spoke on the phone on some and had a few face-to-face meetings with others. There were some very important talks he had in person with those who had come to Washington. One of those was with the Italian president – news had now come of what had occurred in Tripoli with the Italian Embassy – and also the Israeli prime minister. Neither of those countries were a member of the Coalition. After these talks, that situation with each looked increasingly likely to change.
End of Part Four
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 21, 2019 20:00:40 GMT
There maybe some countries which waver though not in public. This matter of the ceasefire offer will be covered over several upcoming updates including a rather strong response: I promise it will be something special. Erm... I killed you at SHAPE... If you could avoid nuking the bejesus our of Rhode Island in this timeline I would greatly appreciate it. 😃 There is nothing on Rhode Island to bomb so far i know of.
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James G
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Post by James G on Mar 21, 2019 20:08:43 GMT
If you could avoid nuking the bejesus our of Rhode Island in this timeline I would greatly appreciate it. 😃 There is nothing on Rhode Island to bomb so far i know of. Newport Naval Station. Second-rate counterforce target. Crackpot's residence. Off-limits.
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crackpot
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Post by crackpot on Mar 21, 2019 20:38:32 GMT
There is nothing on Rhode Island to bomb so far i know of. Newport Naval Station. Second-rate counterforce target. Crackpot's residence. Off-limits. That’s survivable. Though if a shot at electric boat at Quonset Point goes wide right I’m toasted in 2010.
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