lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 19, 2018 16:41:28 GMT
I have been told about a more general war plan being prepared, and a major offensive will take place in March. Naturally, I cannot write about this as it is possible that my letters will be read. I believe that this will allow us to put an end to this war. Your loving father, Johan Rots First, another good update raunchel. Second, so Johan does think somebody could read his letter, would that be the enemy ore maybe the Republic. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 19, 2018 20:22:27 GMT
One Thing I worry about is how the next war is going to develop. The Americans are not going to take to forgive the Dutch for invading and occupying New York and Washington and are not going to consider the war over until they have managed to occupy the Dutch heartland, lack of navy be damnded. So it is very possible that the US Will use the next twenty years to prepare for the next war under a leader With near dictator levels of power. You mean making the United States this version of Weimar Germany and the corporal who we all know took over the place and whith it brought destruction upon the world. Something like that might be possible. The traditional American political system is feeling some pressure already (it's why Wilson was shot), and things will get interesting there.
Raunchel
Of those options I suspect Chicago might be the best. Its deep in the industrial heartland and also near Canada and hence contact with the outside world that the Dutch can't easily block. [Could end up with a Trent types incident here if there was an attempt to take diplomats off a British ship - see Trent_Affair, if your not familiar with it. Actually there is the possibility as well, given their knowledge of the affair that someone could try and set something up like that, which could have some nasty consequences.
So Jakoba is as hostile to Catholics as her father. I thought she might be more tolerant, or is this just her fitting in?
If currently only the Dutch and the Jews could be used effectively then that significantly reduces the force pool available, plus with such feeling and large numbers of non-citizens in S Africa and the DEIs especially I suspect that they will also want to keep significant 'Dutch' forces back to protect those regions against both attack and also possible internal unrest. They still have significant forces to throw into the battle against Germany and with their industrial resources as well and the fleet its a significant force for the EP, even without their distractions elsewhere. Probably not as great as Britain OTL because we had less distractions and were more willing to make use of 'native' forces.
It does sound like Dutch S Africa sounds rather like OTL S Africa under apartheid and presumably there are some other elements in S America including former slaves who might be discontent but probably a lot more stable than S Africa. However would expect unrest here only if the war is prolonged and starts going badly for the Dutch or they seriously upset the Coloureds.
One thing I forgot to say with regards to air warfare, which will be going on in Europe as well as the US is that the ability for any sort of ground attack is minimal at the moment. Most a/c are so fragile and under-powered that they can't carry much in the way of weapons and early in the war pilots were taking up pistols to fire at opponents and probably wouldn't have anything heavier than a few grenades to throw against targets on the ground. Of course things started developing rapidly and I'm just think where a Mr Fokker stands currently - see Anthony_Fokker. He's only moved to Germany permanently a couple of years before and could both have divided loyalties - although its not strictly speaking his Netherlands - and also there could be some mistrust of him by Germany under those circumstances. However if Germany effectively loses him it will hurt them a bit, although other manufacturers and members of his company would probably take up most of the slack.
Spell-checkers are always to be treated with cautious. The one I have hear tries to mis-spell everything into American.  However it doesn't sound like a good sign that peace is a concept its struggling with.
Steve
I guess that you're right on Chicago, and the Americans trying to provoke a Trent Affair is a great idea. Someone might just try something like that. Jakoba herself doesn't really hate catholics or the like, she however knows what she is supposed to say, both for political and personal reasons. There indeed are significant forces staying behind to keep the locals down, just like the European empires did otl. Only here, they are a bit more careful because a revolt in the provinces would be really really bad. They can built up a significant army to fight the Germans, but they have to travel and of course, have to be built up. They didn't have the huge armies of the Germans and French (although that buildup of course started a few months ago already). The whole Dutch empire works a bit like South Africa (if only because that's what I know best, and South America has a similar demographic composition in terms of a white ruling class with many non-whites below them). That basically requires something like Apartheid. Unrest always is a possibility in an empire, but generally, that didn't really happen on a large scale until things went seriously wrong. The post-war era is something completely different of course. I hadn't thought about Fokker yet, but it makes sense that he will feel at least a little conflicted. And of course, his employers might also be at least a little bit distrustful towards him now... Concerning my spell checker, I think that it has read my notes. I mean that it is a distinct possibility that the United States ends up With a similar mindset at least, that they could have won the war if they just kept going instead of the government signing a peace treaty. The certain private (in OTL he was never a corporal, that was just something the WAllies came up With to mock him) won't travel to America he considered himself throughly German (Austrian accent be Damned). And who knows where Raunchel takes this TL? Maybe the Germans Will consider themselves beaten fair and square and have little interest in another war? Maybe the Dutch Will be more willing to ignore Japanese attrocities in China and there won't be an embargo that leads to a Pacific war? I have some plans for the TL, but not much is set completely in stone because there is so much that I don't know so I will probably be changing up lots of things in the future. But let's say that this won't be the War to End All Wars Forever (this time for real).
Raunchel
Interesting that Jokaba is going to be visiting London rather back to Paris as as I would expect that the Americans and Japanese would have diplomatic representation there its unlikely the French would give that up unless they actually went to war with them. However it does give a chance to see how things are developing in the British empire and how their reacting to all those events. Be interesting if she meets any of the Pankhurst's while she's there.
Also that while Jokaba is the formal head of this new committee she doesn't really have any actual power which could make things bloody awkward. That's assuming that's what head regentess means?
From the mention of the ability to gain additional votes by having a family or paying higher taxes is this something available to 'Dutch' citizens? If so it could mean that the rich are somewhat more powerful than their actual numbers actually are. The problem with giving coloureds even a limited vote and having them going off to war, apart from the reaction by the more reactionary elements, is that the veterans coming back from the war are likely to be less pliable to being discriminated against as before, as the US for instance found after both world wars.
Guessing the "Caribbean Revolt" was by former slaves who tried to gain either independence or at least a lesser degree of discrimination/abuse?
Afraid I'm no good at Dutch but guessing that Nieuw-Vlaanderen is one of the overseas republics? Makes me think of S Africa but possibly just because it seems rather Boer sounding.
One thing the Dutch will have to consider in the area they occupy in the US is that the coastal cities especially have a lot of non-Americans, which will confuse matters. Many may want to leave anyway as much of the employment they have will have disappeared although some, such as Slavs from Austria or Poles and Jews from Russia could be unwilling to go to their former 'homes' and there would be the question of how they got back to Europe. I take it that men aren't being allowed to leave with their families, which probably means a lot of families will want to stay together and that will be a lot of mouths to feed.
Those camps sound rather like the concentration camps Britain used in S Africa which, albeit more through mis-management and cultural differences than intent caused a lot of deaths and suffering.  Also it does assume that women aren't "potentially hostile parts of the enemy population", which could be a mistake.
Not sure how likely the Dutch would be to take prizes, at least of warships but does sound like they are inflicting significant casualties on the HSF. How much of this might be Johan exaggerating his and his fleet's performance and of course he would be unlikely to admit to Dutch losses but it is sounding like they are having at least limited success.
Steve
The Japanese and Americans indeed have representations in Paris, but the British are better mediators in this situation. If only because they remain neutral and really have strong reasons to want peace. They're looking for a counterbalance to the Dutch, and right now, there isn't really one available. And of course, I want to take a look at Britain here. Jakoba is the formal head of this committee, but the committee basically is a charitable organisation that she has founded, not an official part of the government. There are several reasons for this. First of all, Jakoba is a woman and the government doesn't employ women in any responsible roles, and no married women whatsoever. The second reason is that they want to maintain some distance, so they're not strictly bound by what she says while she can create an opening. This helps a bit with public opinion. They chose Jakoba because she did negotiate the ceasefire with the Japanese, and did quite some work with other countries in Berlin. Dutch citizens can indeed have multiple votes for paying certain amounts of taxes, and for having a wife and children. I took that from the Belgian voting system at the time. Every Dutch adult man has the vote, but those of the elite have more votes. Giving the coloureds the vote indeed is a huge problem, but at the same time, there is a huge need for manpower and the Dutch government believes that they will need much larger forces (and besides, the coloureds are much more disposable). It will however lead to difficulties later on. The Caribbean Revolt was an attempt by several groups to gain independence, even including some white settlers. It was quite an unpleasant war in the last century, but as is to be expected, it was quite thoroughly crushed. Nieuw-Vlaanderen is in South America, mostly around Buenos Aires. Vlaanderen was one of the provinces that managed to name a significant enough colony after itself to have it become a province as well. The occupation will be very complicated. There isn't much of an intention to stay around in the long run, but things will only keep escalating there. For now, they're putting people into camps to hopefully stop further attacks. It's not going to be fun for anyone involved. There will also be some attempts to send back emigrants to their home countries, but that will take even more time. And, depending on the country, could lead to some serious issues for the people involved (like being sent back to Russia). And there is no way that women would take up arms. That's just not in our nature The prizes that the Dutch are taking are basically merchant ships. They tend to try to capture them, and there still were a few at sea. Of course, that is seriously dying down by now, but some money was made there. Warships have only been captured in America, and that's mostly because of the geography and the general lack of preparation and competence by the Americans. Thank you!
IF the US signs a humiliating peace treaty and that may not end up being the case given events in Europe, then they will be looking for revenge and I can't see any way of imposing military limitations on such a large state as was done, even in a limited fashion with OTL Germany. Even if a more moderate peace is signed they will view the Dutch as a potential future enemy and a serious threat to their security and there's likely to be a significant arms race both on land and at sea. Which would reduce the rate of economic growth and recovery in the US but seems pretty much a given. Possibly not to the point of American forces standing in an occupied and devastated Amsterdam and the Hague but they will definitely want to regain domination of the Caribbean region as its just too important for them economically.
How Germany goes, presuming its defeated which looks likely but not certain. A heavier defeat and more brutal peace terms, which do seem rather likely if they lose might cause them to react as after 45 and seek to avoid another war, although there would be nothing like the level of guilt about their actions as after OTL WWII. A lesser defeat could see a desire to regain lost territory and prestige but whether it descends into the sort of insanity of the Nazis or is a more 'ordinary' and hence possibly more dangerous desire for revenge and a more secure position would again depend on the circumstances. A lot of events brought the Nazis to power, including the great depression and the establishment of communism in Russia which coupled with the withdrawal of the US into isolationism were all needed for a revival of German power. Although of course this time both Germany and the US, along with possibly Japan could all be revanchist powers.
I doubt you will get anything like the OTL Japanese invasion of China. More likely might be Japan staying more liberal and also quite possibly an ally of China against European economic encroachment.
If the Americans sign any sort of treaty, it will lead to lots of domestic issues. They are having issues with the population and those are very hard to get under control. Only a real defeat could deal with that, but the Dutch (and anyone else for that matter) don't have the strength to do anything close to that. That means that if any sort of treaty is signed, there will be a lot to gain politically by advocating revanchism and military buildup. At the same time, movements for peace will be suspect. At least, in the medium term. I won't speak too much about how things will develop in Germany and other European countries, because there, there are far too many things to be explored. I however don't just want to follow OTL unless it really makes sense. The most likely result in my opinion Will be a white peace. But that won't remove the insult to national honour and the US being shown as weak on an international scale. Remember that the Dutch were able to just show up, occupy two of the most famous and imprtant American cities and it Will take at several months to a year for the Americans to kick them out, that kind of embarassment won't be forgiven easily. Germany is up in the air, it could end up more cautious about throwing its weight around or be up for revaunch. I am pretty certain a Japanese allience With China is off the table, primary because the country is two years away from tearing itself to pieces and already starting to collapse at the edges. And secondary because Japan Will still need to gain an easy Source of raw materials to support and defend its empire. Even a white peace won't be enough to get the Americans to back down. They now feel deeply insulted, and will be looking for a way to hit back to reassert their masculinity.
In terms of the Dutch v US war I agree. The US would be unable to drive the Dutch from their home territory for probably 3-4 years if it wasn't for the war in Europe because, under the present circumstances they would really take that long to be able to build up an army strong enough and well enough equipped to do so, given the horrendous losses they will take in the intervening period. However with the war in Europe I suspect the Dutch will have to make peace on [for them] very moderate terms. Which as you said will likely mean another war some years down the line. The US will of course have to consider a new Dutch attack once the war in Europe is over although depending on how long and bloody the latter is that may not actually be a threat.
The problem for Germany may be exactly that it doesn't think it can wage a long war. In which case its likely to try and win a quick victory which is probably not its best bet. In which case it might make its primary attack against the Dutch as they would probably look weaker, at least in their European territories, than the French or Russians and since occupying much of the Dutch area would open up new avenues against the French and also hopefully weaken and displace the dangerous Dutch fleet. I would think in that they would probably be better off attacking the northern part of the country rather than in the south as apart from anything else success there opens up a salient which could be attacked by the Dutch from the north and the French from the south. However possibly the extensive railway structure they built up to support the planned attack through Belgium is too useful here?
China is already pretty chaotic but Japan is going to be in a vastly different position here. Instead of the dominant military power in the region, even if it keeps Korea and its interests in Manchuria its going to be a defensive power, fearing new attacks from the Dutch so its more likely to be eager to keep liberal and looking for allies. Britain could well stay friendly and the US in those circumstances are likely to be friendly as well as both are threatened more by the Dutch and each other. More importantly in terms of China Japan isn't going to be strong enough to be a threat and both are going to be highly concerned about the Dutch - presuming of course they come out of the current conflict largely as they are now - so a liberal Japan is likely to continue to support Sun Yat-sen's KMT.
The Dutch will be aiming for a rather moderate peace, which is one of the reasons why Jakoba is talking to them. But it will be hard for the Americans to really accept it, especially now that Wilson has been shot for basically not doing enough to fight back. But whatever happens, the paranoid streak that has always been present in American politics will be seriously strengthened.
Raunchel
Right trying again as my initial attempt I managed to find some key combination that deleted everything!  Apologies for the size of this post.
Forgot to respond to the assassination of President Wilson. That will cause further confusion in the US as there could be uncertainty about who's in control especially since the new President, Thomas_R._Marshall, who was not on great terms with Wilson and somewhat excluded from his government. He might be a better leader in the crisis as he seems to have been very much a progressive, opposing the death penalty and eugenics laws, supporting laws against child labour and other social issues.
In terms of the Dutch military it sounds like its similar to Britain's in terms of a relatively small home force, although presumably somewhat larger than Britain's - which I think was ~6Inf and 2-3 Cav divisions of regulars and ~12 divisions of territorial units. In which case they could have some problems, as Britain had, building up a larger army while fighting a major war and also producing the levels of equipment and munitions that this new army needed. Britain had problems for a year or two at least and only really by about 1917 had enough artillery for instance and most of the new armies really fully trained. Possibly not as bad for the Dutch as they need larger forces because of their continental status and also probably because their colonies/overseas republics, with the Dutch often being in the minority often means a more militarised culture. Or it could be we're getting a somewhat slanted view as most of what we're hearing is from one family with a strong military culture.
With a Trent type crisis it could be some ploy by someone in the US, or with some assistance from someone in the UK who thinks the Dutch need to be opposed or the US and Japan supported or simply by accident.
A spell checker that is showing clear signs of AI development is definitely worrying?  Have you tried the Turning test on it yet?
OK on why diplomacy is being operated via Britain. I wasn't sure because of the mistrust of the Dutch to their England/Britain but it does make sense given that Britain is about the only great power not at war with anyone, other than possibly Italy.
Also thanks for the info on the voting system and the Caribbean Revolt. Including that it had some local whites supporting it. Was that something that prompted greater rights for the colonial rights to try and separate them from the non-whites?
One of the problems with migrants in the US is that many of them have been there for some years. [Many only really took US citizenship ~1920 after new immigration rules meant their continued status in the country was threatened]. As such some of the Dutch may be suspicious about whether their actually US citizens or supporters, which some might be and also letting so many men leaving their control when they might end up being hostile. As you say the occupation is going to be message and sounds like a classic case of mission drift occurring already.
I'm reminded of a famous line of Kipling's on this. Makes sense in terms of seizing merchantmen. Could be some problems with cases where the ships are carrying foreign flags and in the Dutch exclusion zone or are they being allowed to go about their business after checking their not actually trading with the US?
Agree that any treaty signed by the US, even if it loses no more than the Panama Canal Zone is going to be deeply controversial in the US - as well as probably in the Netherlands - and you could see some levels of political and quite possibly social conflict within the US, possibly for some time to come. Rearmament will definitely occur but that could be a big issue in any treaty as the Dutch will be as determined to minimise this as the Americans to ensure it so think the war could go on for some time.
When you say a moderate peace is this moderate by who's terms? Their viewpoint on defeated opponents seem to be pretty draconian, i.e. for non-Europeans pretty much converting the defeated foe into a de-facto colony controlled by the Dutch. Even the sort of terms that were mentioned for the US originally, with restrictions on US rearmament and them paying an indemnity - IIRC is unlikely to go down well, especially with the rage in the US about the attack and coastal bombardments. Or is the Dutch position softening somewhat because they need everything to fight the war in Europe? Plus if there are Mexican incursions into the US, although probably as likely raids going both ways given the mess Mexico is in at this point, that would further complicate matters. As such think its going to be a while before the two sides come to any agreement. Also to clarify are the Dutch considering more moderate terms regarding Japan or are they angry that the Japanese have resumed fighting - although I rather got the impression that the cease-fire Jakoba had organised was still provisional as I wasn't sure she had the authority to make such an agreement.
Anyway a few more points that come to mind.
a) The other unaligned great power is Italy but I think its unlikely it will now join the CPs. It still would like land owned by Austria, as well as France, but it still has poor relations with the Ottomans after the 1911 war so is unlikely to side with them. More important Dutch entry into the war gives the EPs [including them] a clear naval superiority and Italy, in terms of its coastal cities, infrastructure and trade and dependency on overseas trade is very vulnerable to an hostile naval power. As such I suspect it will either stay neutral or join the EPs and it did so in 1915 so this could be fairly soon. On the other hand you don't get much more Catholic than Italy at this point so that could be issue making them mistrustful of the Dutch as well as vice versa. However the only way I can see them joining the CPs and I think this is unlikely would be if there was a big scandal about alleged abuses of Italian citizens in the US.
b) One thing that occurred OTL and I suspect is still likely would be the deployment of chemical weapons. See Chemical_weapons_in_World_War_I#1915:_Large-scale_use_and_lethal_gases, for more details. It should be noted that both French and Germans had used non-lethal tear gas in 1914, although in such small concentrations that it seems unlikely the victims actually realised they had been attacked. The initial chlorine attacks changed all this. Given their position and world leadership in the chemistry industry I would expect them to lead this again. Its quite likely it would be against the Dutch or possibly the French. Not sure what the Dutch position is on chemical weapons or what their chemical industry is like.
c) Especially given how close the two are and the widespread use of convoys by the Dutch I would expect the Germans to use subs widely, probably quickly adopting undersea attacks without warning as its the only real way for a sub to attack a protected convoy. This might have more or less effect against the Dutch depending on their doctrine and experience. Britain lost a number of ships early on due to not realising the danger from subs but I don't know what the Dutch are like. Also although I think you said they had some airships the Germans definitely do and are likely to use them for scouting, especially at sea but possibly also bombing raids on the Netherlands especially and they do seem to be somewhat unaware of that?
Steve
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 19, 2018 20:42:29 GMT
London, January 15, 1914Dear father, Please, tell me that Hendrik’s injuries aren’t too terrible and that he is in safety. I am immensely proud of his heroism and sacrifice. But still, as a sister, I am pained that he suffers. Johannes always had a fascination for these flying machines, Mother often warned him of their danger, but I fear that it only strengthened his manly desire to risk himself for achievements. Just before I departed, I met with several members of the council of pensionaries, including the grand pensionary. Kersten seemed to me to be far more mild-mannered than he is often depicted to be in the newspapers that I now occasionally read because of my unpleasant duties. It is quite striking to me that a man who is often described as strong and even overbearing is in fact a man who tends to carefully chosen words. In this meeting, I was instructed about the terms that I would be allowed to offer, but they also told me that initially, I should offer far less. Here, I must confess that pride filled me as I already was aware of this and that such illustrious gentlemen place such confidence in me. Once I arrived in London, I was taken to the embassy where I was introduced to the staff and also to one of my fellow regentesses, Mrs Roelands, the ambassador’s wife. She is a kind woman with a stern manner, as a woman of standing should possess. It feels strange to me to be placed in some way on the same or a higher level than a woman almost thrice my age, whose own daughters are older than me and already married. Unfortunately, because we are to remain somewhat independent of the embassy, I will be staying at a hotel until a proper building has been purchased and furnished for the needs of my committee. London as a city appears to be struck by a sort of depression, there are soldiers everywhere, but they all seem to experience a mixture between boredom and anger. At the bakeries and other such shops, there are lines of women, as it seems that shortages have arisen, a bit like I have also seen in Amsterdam. In about an hour, I will be meeting with the English foreign secretary to discuss the current situation and our hope to restore peace. He has kindly invited me, and has indicated that he is involved in making arrangements for me to speak with representatives of the Japanese and North American governments. Your loving daughter, Jakoba Battlecruiser Vlijt, January 19, 1914Dearest Jakoba, I am truly grateful for your letter and hope that London is treating you well. I once visited the city, and I hope that your reception is kinder than the one I received at that time. What you mention about your committee however fills me with questions and worries with which your mother fully agrees with me. Is there any intention for further travel? And do you have accompaniment from true representatives of our government? Hendrik is fine. He was wounded in the leg, but can still walk and has made a full recovery. He remains at the front, it’s just not possible to withdraw units from it as long as the Germans remain on our sacred soil. The first French units have arrived at the front, and I’ve been told that there have been issues in command of those troops, with the French claiming to be the superiors of our own officers. As you know, the army isn’t the epitome of quality, but this is our country, and our officers certainly are superior to some papists. It appears that significant German forces have been shifted to the north and an assault was mounted on the islands we hold, but we managed to beat them back. Our army however has been forced to withdraw, although it remains on German soil. I have been told about a more general war plan being prepared, and a major offensive will take place in March. Naturally, I cannot write about this as it is possible that my letters will be read. I believe that this will allow us to put an end to this war. Your loving father, Johan Rots
Raunchel
Ah it does sound like the Dutch are willing to show some flexibility although how much could be crucial. I suspect Jokaba is in an awkward position because any failure or any terms which cause upset in Dutch society are likely to be blamed on her.
I can understand the tension between the French and Dutch forces and there is likely to be a degree of mistrust for a while at least. It might cause serious problems if it leads to a defeat somewhere and possibly even a lot of pointing fingers at that point as to who was responsible. Alternatively the two armies might start learning to trust and respect each other as according to some reports the Catholics and Protestants from Ireland who fought together on the western front OTL did. Also going to be problems sorting out equipment, supply issue and doctrine. Not to mention factors such as where the French will be garrisoned and what happens when the inevitable relationships start developing or if the French start deploying colonial forces to the Dutch front. However the two powers have made the big step of actually starting to work together.
Two things come to mind with Johan's last paragraph. I suspect the offensive would be as successful as most offensives in WWI, i.e. futile and expensive. Especially given that the Dutch are still inexperienced in this war and the French may, boosted by the Dutch becoming allies, still be addicted to offensive actions but this is impractical against any decent defences without a lot of heavy artillery and the doctrine and munitions to use it which I don't think exists anywhere yet, even in Germany.
The other is that since Johan is a naval officer does that suggest there would be an attempt at an amphibious attack? Or is it that he has enough rank and experience to be privy to such information, which he really shouldn't have.
One other point, especially concerning northern Netherlands [i.e. OTL Netherlands] is that defence has often included plans for flooding low lying areas to protect the coastal cities which were the core of economic and political power. Is that a practical option for this Netherlands or does the markedly higher population mean this would be impossible? Not saying this is likely to be needed but if things went pear shaped its something the government might have to consider.
Anyway the plot continues to thicken. 
Steve
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Jan 7, 2019 16:24:01 GMT
London, January 23, 1914
Dear father,
It's truly appalling that Hendrik has been injured in such a way. And to think that mere weeks ago I was in Germany, and even danced with some of those who are responsible for this. I however am grateful to God for sparing Hendrik a worse fate and pray that he will continue to do his duty with distinction.
Everything here appears to be going well. I have met with both the British government and the Japanese. The North Americans have refused all invitations for even an exchange of notes. The English foreign secretary has also attempted to speak to their ambassador, but he told be that they refuse any mediation. I fear that it will be necessary to inflict further defeats on them before they can be made to see reason. Fortunately, it seems that the Russians agree with our position and have promised to declare war as well. Our French friends for now refuse to do such a thing, but have agreed to allow us to use any bases we might require.
Anyways, I spoke to the Japanese delegation. They desire an end to this war as much as we do, if only because of what I have heard through English sources that I've started to develop. Their government is losing the confidence of the populace, which will lead to them being replaced if the situation continues as it does. I do not believe that there is much of a risk of a popular revolt which would only create more enemies for us in the long run. We have agreed that the ceasefire will be extended and we are currently negotiating an armistice. For the final peace, it has been agreed that it will be discussed here in London once their prime minister has arrived.
Together with the French, we are also involved in secret talks with the Italians. If we can bring them into the war, it will provide a valuable distraction for our enemies and they will be forced to back away from further attacks. They however remain unsure, so I am hoping for the success of our upcoming attacks to force their hand.
I have also had the distinct displeasure of reading the English newspapers. There appear to be many who believe that we are planning to invade them to permanently break their empire. It also seems that there is considerable internal unrest in Ireland and more and more men are being shifted there. I even read that some believe that we are in league with the Irish, who seem to be deeply divided by faith. Some of them actually are protestant, unlike the English, who deny being Papist while only having made superficial changes.
There has also been a rather shocking surprise on the personal level. Elsbeth appears to have left Germany and arrived just the day before. She was quite well, but has had so much to say. It seems that my dear friend Karen has been placed under arrest, being accused of espionage on our behalf. Naturally, such a thing is preposterous, so I will be writing the German ambassador here at once. Elsbeth told me that she has also been accused, and that an attempt was made to arrest her. Fortunately, she managed to escape and using a false name, made her way to England where she heard of my presence here. Naturally, I have offered her to stay here with me for the time being. I hope you do not disapprove.
Most of my time has been eaten up by the constant talks and in the evening, there have been so many receptions. I however have also been looking at buildings, and am considering making use of the former Belgian embassy here. I pray that you remain safe and long to be back home.
Your loving daughter,
Jakoba
Battlecruiser Vlijt, January 28, 1914
Dearest Jakoba,
It does your mother and me good to hear that you are doing well, but I have to warn you, the English by their very nature are treacherous and you would do well to not trust them. What you write of the North Americans is shocking, but I presume it to be mere bluster. Now that their capitol is fully in our hands and they have suffered so many losses already. Extra liners have been requisitioned to be able to move all the prisoners that have been taken away, which I disagree with because of the threat to the Homeland.
I hope that you are correct about the yellows, they appear to be more capable than one would expect of their race, and perhaps more civilised too. But still, they cannot be trusted especially because the English are bound to the Japanese. Their newspapers support this idea. By a French colleague, the commander of their small Channel Fleet, I've been told that the English and the French are traditional enemies, so it is only to be expected that they are waiting for the right moment to stab us into the back.
We however are deeply shocked that a friend of yours has been arrested for espionage! How and why would she ever have done such a thing? It's strong proof of German duplicity. They must have arrested Karen out of sheer spite. At least your other friend managed to escape, and I applaud you for offering her sanctuary.
At the moment, I don't have much else to say, but I urge you to keep a close eye on the newspapers.
Your loving father,
Johan Rots
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 7, 2019 16:28:01 GMT
London, January 23, 1914
Dear father, It's truly appalling that Hendrik has been injured in such a way. And to think that mere weeks ago I was in Germany, and even danced with some of those who are responsible for this. I however am grateful to God for sparing Hendrik a worse fate and pray that he will continue to do his duty with distinction. Everything here appears to be going well. I have met with both the British government and the Japanese. The North Americans have refused all invitations for even an exchange of notes. The English foreign secretary has also attempted to speak to their ambassador, but he told be that they refuse any mediation. I fear that it will be necessary to inflict further defeats on them before they can be made to see reason. Fortunately, it seems that the Russians agree with our position and have promised to declare war as well. Our French friends for now refuse to do such a thing, but have agreed to allow us to use any bases we might require. Anyways, I spoke to the Japanese delegation. They desire an end to this war as much as we do, if only because of what I have heard through English sources that I've started to develop. Their government is losing the confidence of the populace, which will lead to them being replaced if the situation continues as it does. I do not believe that there is much of a risk of a popular revolt which would only create more enemies for us in the long run. We have agreed that the ceasefire will be extended and we are currently negotiating an armistice. For the final peace, it has been agreed that it will be discussed here in London once their prime minister has arrived. Together with the French, we are also involved in secret talks with the Italians. If we can bring them into the war, it will provide a valuable distraction for our enemies and they will be forced to back away from further attacks. They however remain unsure, so I am hoping for the success of our upcoming attacks to force their hand. I have also had the distinct displeasure of reading the English newspapers. There appear to be many who believe that we are planning to invade them to permanently break their empire. It also seems that there is considerable internal unrest in Ireland and more and more men are being shifted there. I even read that some believe that we are in league with the Irish, who seem to be deeply divided by faith. Some of them actually are protestant, unlike the English, who deny being Papist while only having made superficial changes. There has also been a rather shocking surprise on the personal level. Elsbeth appears to have left Germany and arrived just the day before. She was quite well, but has had so much to say. It seems that my dear friend Karen has been placed under arrest, being accused of espionage on our behalf. Naturally, such a thing is preposterous, so I will be writing the German ambassador here at once. Elsbeth told me that she has also been accused, and that an attempt was made to arrest her. Fortunately, she managed to escape and using a false name, made her way to England where she heard of my presence here. Naturally, I have offered her to stay here with me for the time being. I hope you do not disapprove. Most of my time has been eaten up by the constant talks and in the evening, there have been so many receptions. I however have also been looking at buildings, and am considering making use of the former Belgian embassy here. I pray that you remain safe and long to be back home. Your loving daughter, Jakoba Battlecruiser Vlijt, January 28, 1914
Dearest Jakoba, It does your mother and me good to hear that you are doing well, but I have to warn you, the English by their very nature are treacherous and you would do well to not trust them. What you write of the North Americans is shocking, but I presume it to be mere bluster. Now that their capitol is fully in our hands and they have suffered so many losses already. Extra liners have been requisitioned to be able to move all the prisoners that have been taken away, which I disagree with because of the threat to the Homeland. I hope that you are correct about the yellows, they appear to be more capable than one would expect of their race, and perhaps more civilised too. But still, they cannot be trusted especially because the English are bound to the Japanese. Their newspapers support this idea. By a French colleague, the commander of their small Channel Fleet, I've been told that the English and the French are traditional enemies, so it is only to be expected that they are waiting for the right moment to stab us into the back. We however are deeply shocked that a friend of yours has been arrested for espionage! How and why would she ever have done such a thing? It's strong proof of German duplicity. They must have arrested Karen out of sheer spite. At least your other friend managed to escape, and I applaud you for offering her sanctuary. At the moment, I don't have much else to say, but I urge you to keep a close eye on the newspapers. Your loving father, Johan Rots Nice, first update of 2019, hope many will follow raunchel |
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raunchel
Commander
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Post by raunchel on Jan 7, 2019 17:48:40 GMT
I have been told about a more general war plan being prepared, and a major offensive will take place in March. Naturally, I cannot write about this as it is possible that my letters will be read. I believe that this will allow us to put an end to this war. Your loving father, Johan Rots First, another good update raunchel . Second, so Johan does think somebody could read his letter, would that be the enemy ore maybe the Republic. Thank you. Johan is careful about military secrets. You never know where there could be spies! Especially if a letter has to go to England. Something like that might be possible. The traditional American political system is feeling some pressure already (it's why Wilson was shot), and things will get interesting there. I guess that you're right on Chicago, and the Americans trying to provoke a Trent Affair is a great idea. Someone might just try something like that. Jakoba herself doesn't really hate catholics or the like, she however knows what she is supposed to say, both for political and personal reasons. There indeed are significant forces staying behind to keep the locals down, just like the European empires did otl. Only here, they are a bit more careful because a revolt in the provinces would be really really bad. They can built up a significant army to fight the Germans, but they have to travel and of course, have to be built up. They didn't have the huge armies of the Germans and French (although that buildup of course started a few months ago already). The whole Dutch empire works a bit like South Africa (if only because that's what I know best, and South America has a similar demographic composition in terms of a white ruling class with many non-whites below them). That basically requires something like Apartheid. Unrest always is a possibility in an empire, but generally, that didn't really happen on a large scale until things went seriously wrong. The post-war era is something completely different of course. I hadn't thought about Fokker yet, but it makes sense that he will feel at least a little conflicted. And of course, his employers might also be at least a little bit distrustful towards him now... Concerning my spell checker, I think that it has read my notes. I have some plans for the TL, but not much is set completely in stone because there is so much that I don't know so I will probably be changing up lots of things in the future. But let's say that this won't be the War to End All Wars Forever (this time for real). The Japanese and Americans indeed have representations in Paris, but the British are better mediators in this situation. If only because they remain neutral and really have strong reasons to want peace. They're looking for a counterbalance to the Dutch, and right now, there isn't really one available. And of course, I want to take a look at Britain here. Jakoba is the formal head of this committee, but the committee basically is a charitable organisation that she has founded, not an official part of the government. There are several reasons for this. First of all, Jakoba is a woman and the government doesn't employ women in any responsible roles, and no married women whatsoever. The second reason is that they want to maintain some distance, so they're not strictly bound by what she says while she can create an opening. This helps a bit with public opinion. They chose Jakoba because she did negotiate the ceasefire with the Japanese, and did quite some work with other countries in Berlin. Dutch citizens can indeed have multiple votes for paying certain amounts of taxes, and for having a wife and children. I took that from the Belgian voting system at the time. Every Dutch adult man has the vote, but those of the elite have more votes. Giving the coloureds the vote indeed is a huge problem, but at the same time, there is a huge need for manpower and the Dutch government believes that they will need much larger forces (and besides, the coloureds are much more disposable). It will however lead to difficulties later on. The Caribbean Revolt was an attempt by several groups to gain independence, even including some white settlers. It was quite an unpleasant war in the last century, but as is to be expected, it was quite thoroughly crushed. Nieuw-Vlaanderen is in South America, mostly around Buenos Aires. Vlaanderen was one of the provinces that managed to name a significant enough colony after itself to have it become a province as well. The occupation will be very complicated. There isn't much of an intention to stay around in the long run, but things will only keep escalating there. For now, they're putting people into camps to hopefully stop further attacks. It's not going to be fun for anyone involved. There will also be some attempts to send back emigrants to their home countries, but that will take even more time. And, depending on the country, could lead to some serious issues for the people involved (like being sent back to Russia). And there is no way that women would take up arms. That's just not in our nature The prizes that the Dutch are taking are basically merchant ships. They tend to try to capture them, and there still were a few at sea. Of course, that is seriously dying down by now, but some money was made there. Warships have only been captured in America, and that's mostly because of the geography and the general lack of preparation and competence by the Americans. Thank you! If the Americans sign any sort of treaty, it will lead to lots of domestic issues. They are having issues with the population and those are very hard to get under control. Only a real defeat could deal with that, but the Dutch (and anyone else for that matter) don't have the strength to do anything close to that. That means that if any sort of treaty is signed, there will be a lot to gain politically by advocating revanchism and military buildup. At the same time, movements for peace will be suspect. At least, in the medium term. I won't speak too much about how things will develop in Germany and other European countries, because there, there are far too many things to be explored. I however don't just want to follow OTL unless it really makes sense. Even a white peace won't be enough to get the Americans to back down. They now feel deeply insulted, and will be looking for a way to hit back to reassert their masculinity. The Dutch will be aiming for a rather moderate peace, which is one of the reasons why Jakoba is talking to them. But it will be hard for the Americans to really accept it, especially now that Wilson has been shot for basically not doing enough to fight back. But whatever happens, the paranoid streak that has always been present in American politics will be seriously strengthened.
Raunchel
Right trying again as my initial attempt I managed to find some key combination that deleted everything! Apologies for the size of this post.
Forgot to respond to the assassination of President Wilson. That will cause further confusion in the US as there could be uncertainty about who's in control especially since the new President, Thomas_R._Marshall, who was not on great terms with Wilson and somewhat excluded from his government. He might be a better leader in the crisis as he seems to have been very much a progressive, opposing the death penalty and eugenics laws, supporting laws against child labour and other social issues.
In terms of the Dutch military it sounds like its similar to Britain's in terms of a relatively small home force, although presumably somewhat larger than Britain's - which I think was ~6Inf and 2-3 Cav divisions of regulars and ~12 divisions of territorial units. In which case they could have some problems, as Britain had, building up a larger army while fighting a major war and also producing the levels of equipment and munitions that this new army needed. Britain had problems for a year or two at least and only really by about 1917 had enough artillery for instance and most of the new armies really fully trained. Possibly not as bad for the Dutch as they need larger forces because of their continental status and also probably because their colonies/overseas republics, with the Dutch often being in the minority often means a more militarised culture. Or it could be we're getting a somewhat slanted view as most of what we're hearing is from one family with a strong military culture.
With a Trent type crisis it could be some ploy by someone in the US, or with some assistance from someone in the UK who thinks the Dutch need to be opposed or the US and Japan supported or simply by accident.
A spell checker that is showing clear signs of AI development is definitely worrying? Have you tried the Turning test on it yet?
OK on why diplomacy is being operated via Britain. I wasn't sure because of the mistrust of the Dutch to their England/Britain but it does make sense given that Britain is about the only great power not at war with anyone, other than possibly Italy.
Also thanks for the info on the voting system and the Caribbean Revolt. Including that it had some local whites supporting it. Was that something that prompted greater rights for the colonial rights to try and separate them from the non-whites?
One of the problems with migrants in the US is that many of them have been there for some years. [Many only really took US citizenship ~1920 after new immigration rules meant their continued status in the country was threatened]. As such some of the Dutch may be suspicious about whether their actually US citizens or supporters, which some might be and also letting so many men leaving their control when they might end up being hostile. As you say the occupation is going to be message and sounds like a classic case of mission drift occurring already.
I'm reminded of a famous line of Kipling's on this. Makes sense in terms of seizing merchantmen. Could be some problems with cases where the ships are carrying foreign flags and in the Dutch exclusion zone or are they being allowed to go about their business after checking their not actually trading with the US?
Agree that any treaty signed by the US, even if it loses no more than the Panama Canal Zone is going to be deeply controversial in the US - as well as probably in the Netherlands - and you could see some levels of political and quite possibly social conflict within the US, possibly for some time to come. Rearmament will definitely occur but that could be a big issue in any treaty as the Dutch will be as determined to minimise this as the Americans to ensure it so think the war could go on for some time.
When you say a moderate peace is this moderate by who's terms? Their viewpoint on defeated opponents seem to be pretty draconian, i.e. for non-Europeans pretty much converting the defeated foe into a de-facto colony controlled by the Dutch. Even the sort of terms that were mentioned for the US originally, with restrictions on US rearmament and them paying an indemnity - IIRC is unlikely to go down well, especially with the rage in the US about the attack and coastal bombardments. Or is the Dutch position softening somewhat because they need everything to fight the war in Europe? Plus if there are Mexican incursions into the US, although probably as likely raids going both ways given the mess Mexico is in at this point, that would further complicate matters. As such think its going to be a while before the two sides come to any agreement. Also to clarify are the Dutch considering more moderate terms regarding Japan or are they angry that the Japanese have resumed fighting - although I rather got the impression that the cease-fire Jakoba had organised was still provisional as I wasn't sure she had the authority to make such an agreement.
Anyway a few more points that come to mind.
a) The other unaligned great power is Italy but I think its unlikely it will now join the CPs. It still would like land owned by Austria, as well as France, but it still has poor relations with the Ottomans after the 1911 war so is unlikely to side with them. More important Dutch entry into the war gives the EPs [including them] a clear naval superiority and Italy, in terms of its coastal cities, infrastructure and trade and dependency on overseas trade is very vulnerable to an hostile naval power. As such I suspect it will either stay neutral or join the EPs and it did so in 1915 so this could be fairly soon. On the other hand you don't get much more Catholic than Italy at this point so that could be issue making them mistrustful of the Dutch as well as vice versa. However the only way I can see them joining the CPs and I think this is unlikely would be if there was a big scandal about alleged abuses of Italian citizens in the US.
b) One thing that occurred OTL and I suspect is still likely would be the deployment of chemical weapons. See Chemical_weapons_in_World_War_I#1915:_Large-scale_use_and_lethal_gases, for more details. It should be noted that both French and Germans had used non-lethal tear gas in 1914, although in such small concentrations that it seems unlikely the victims actually realised they had been attacked. The initial chlorine attacks changed all this. Given their position and world leadership in the chemistry industry I would expect them to lead this again. Its quite likely it would be against the Dutch or possibly the French. Not sure what the Dutch position is on chemical weapons or what their chemical industry is like.
c) Especially given how close the two are and the widespread use of convoys by the Dutch I would expect the Germans to use subs widely, probably quickly adopting undersea attacks without warning as its the only real way for a sub to attack a protected convoy. This might have more or less effect against the Dutch depending on their doctrine and experience. Britain lost a number of ships early on due to not realising the danger from subs but I don't know what the Dutch are like. Also although I think you said they had some airships the Germans definitely do and are likely to use them for scouting, especially at sea but possibly also bombing raids on the Netherlands especially and they do seem to be somewhat unaware of that?
Steve
More will be revealed about the American political situation in the coming updates, but suffice to say, it won't be a clean transition of power. The Dutch indeed have a relatively small home army, but it's been supplemented by white units from the overseas provinces. One thing that the home army especially is lacking in is cavalry because they actually find it difficult to keep several divisions in their heavily urbanised homeland. If they had had a proper cavalry arm, their could have achieved much more against the Germans at the outbreak of the war. Of course, once the frontlines freeze, cavalry is reduced to infantry with fancy names. One big problem is that many units are from 'warrior peoples', these are capable troops, but politically, it's not feasible to bring them to the mainland. They however are being used to effect in America. My spell checker appears to be behaving more or less normally. And it's not like my autocomplete which appears to believe all sorts of funny things. I am however watching it carefully. The Carribean Revolt is one of the things that led to whites in the non-provinces also gaining representation. There were other factors as well of course, there were some parties that thought that they could profit from it (as always). There will of course be all sorts of problems cropping up in America, and by the time it's done, there will be a lot of hatred and there will be a significantly reduced population as well. This however will have all sorts of causes that can be linked to the war and other issues. Ships of neutral powers that aren't actively trading with the USA are allowed to pass. If evidence is found of them visiting American ports however, they are in serious trouble. A moderate peace means one without major penalties to the loser and no major gains to the winner. The Dutch will be aiming to prevent new threats from arising in the future. And a large angry power with a large army and navy definitely qualifies as a threat. So, now the objective in the American war basically is to ensure that the Americans don't actually get any of the wrong ideas. One thing that doesn't help here is that the Dutch don't have a lot of respect for them. They aren't seeing the Americans as a great power because they could kick down the door like they could do to second-rate powers. That's something that won't help with making peace. At the same time, the Dutch indeed have other priorities, especially in Europe. They're willing to settle with the Americans, but the Americans just don't want to talk. They've had their pride hurt too much for that. The Japanese war is a different question. Within Dutch naval circles, some appreciation for the Japanese has arisen because of their good handling of their ships and things like that. Of course, they were still outmatched and beaten, but there is some measure of respect that clashes with the racism. That makes things a bit complicated, but basically, they are willing to make a deal now that Dutch pride has been sated by driving the Japanese back to port and eliminating their capital ships. Jakoba basically is a spokesperson, someone who allows the Dutch government to negotiate without openly doing so. To them, that is a logical way to deal with such matters because it allows for talks without loss of face but also without foreign intermediaries. Right now, they don't really trust anyone. Italy is something that I'm working on. Secret negotiations are underway, but there are lots of complicating factors there. And a lot of Italian nationalism of course. Whatever happens, Italy will be joining the war, but which side remains to be decided. The Dutch don't have a very strong chemical industry like the Germans do have, so they are at a disadvantage there. The Germans will probably be the first to try it, although, of course, some desperate Americans might also try something. The Dutch are aware of a potential for chemical weapons like the other powers were, but it's not something they're prepared for. Of course, such preparations can be made very quickly when the actual need arises. In terms of submarines, that probably is the best way for the Germans to go about things. The Dutch have a slightly better doctrine than the British do to deal with them (convoys), but aside from that, they aren't really ready. The Germans also are incredibly close, which will be another reason for the Dutch to want to press the Frisian Islands campaign. The Dutch also have airships, but only really use them for scouting. To them, using them to bomb people basically is a war crime. Funnily enough, the first air raids on British civilian targets happened in January 1915, but here, they will be looking for other targets. So expect something about that soon. London, January 15, 1914Dear father, Please, tell me that Hendrik’s injuries aren’t too terrible and that he is in safety. I am immensely proud of his heroism and sacrifice. But still, as a sister, I am pained that he suffers. Johannes always had a fascination for these flying machines, Mother often warned him of their danger, but I fear that it only strengthened his manly desire to risk himself for achievements. Just before I departed, I met with several members of the council of pensionaries, including the grand pensionary. Kersten seemed to me to be far more mild-mannered than he is often depicted to be in the newspapers that I now occasionally read because of my unpleasant duties. It is quite striking to me that a man who is often described as strong and even overbearing is in fact a man who tends to carefully chosen words. In this meeting, I was instructed about the terms that I would be allowed to offer, but they also told me that initially, I should offer far less. Here, I must confess that pride filled me as I already was aware of this and that such illustrious gentlemen place such confidence in me. Once I arrived in London, I was taken to the embassy where I was introduced to the staff and also to one of my fellow regentesses, Mrs Roelands, the ambassador’s wife. She is a kind woman with a stern manner, as a woman of standing should possess. It feels strange to me to be placed in some way on the same or a higher level than a woman almost thrice my age, whose own daughters are older than me and already married. Unfortunately, because we are to remain somewhat independent of the embassy, I will be staying at a hotel until a proper building has been purchased and furnished for the needs of my committee. London as a city appears to be struck by a sort of depression, there are soldiers everywhere, but they all seem to experience a mixture between boredom and anger. At the bakeries and other such shops, there are lines of women, as it seems that shortages have arisen, a bit like I have also seen in Amsterdam. In about an hour, I will be meeting with the English foreign secretary to discuss the current situation and our hope to restore peace. He has kindly invited me, and has indicated that he is involved in making arrangements for me to speak with representatives of the Japanese and North American governments. Your loving daughter, Jakoba Battlecruiser Vlijt, January 19, 1914Dearest Jakoba, I am truly grateful for your letter and hope that London is treating you well. I once visited the city, and I hope that your reception is kinder than the one I received at that time. What you mention about your committee however fills me with questions and worries with which your mother fully agrees with me. Is there any intention for further travel? And do you have accompaniment from true representatives of our government? Hendrik is fine. He was wounded in the leg, but can still walk and has made a full recovery. He remains at the front, it’s just not possible to withdraw units from it as long as the Germans remain on our sacred soil. The first French units have arrived at the front, and I’ve been told that there have been issues in command of those troops, with the French claiming to be the superiors of our own officers. As you know, the army isn’t the epitome of quality, but this is our country, and our officers certainly are superior to some papists. It appears that significant German forces have been shifted to the north and an assault was mounted on the islands we hold, but we managed to beat them back. Our army however has been forced to withdraw, although it remains on German soil. I have been told about a more general war plan being prepared, and a major offensive will take place in March. Naturally, I cannot write about this as it is possible that my letters will be read. I believe that this will allow us to put an end to this war. Your loving father, Johan Rots
Raunchel
Ah it does sound like the Dutch are willing to show some flexibility although how much could be crucial. I suspect Jokaba is in an awkward position because any failure or any terms which cause upset in Dutch society are likely to be blamed on her.
I can understand the tension between the French and Dutch forces and there is likely to be a degree of mistrust for a while at least. It might cause serious problems if it leads to a defeat somewhere and possibly even a lot of pointing fingers at that point as to who was responsible. Alternatively the two armies might start learning to trust and respect each other as according to some reports the Catholics and Protestants from Ireland who fought together on the western front OTL did. Also going to be problems sorting out equipment, supply issue and doctrine. Not to mention factors such as where the French will be garrisoned and what happens when the inevitable relationships start developing or if the French start deploying colonial forces to the Dutch front. However the two powers have made the big step of actually starting to work together.
Two things come to mind with Johan's last paragraph. I suspect the offensive would be as successful as most offensives in WWI, i.e. futile and expensive. Especially given that the Dutch are still inexperienced in this war and the French may, boosted by the Dutch becoming allies, still be addicted to offensive actions but this is impractical against any decent defences without a lot of heavy artillery and the doctrine and munitions to use it which I don't think exists anywhere yet, even in Germany.
The other is that since Johan is a naval officer does that suggest there would be an attempt at an amphibious attack? Or is it that he has enough rank and experience to be privy to such information, which he really shouldn't have.
One other point, especially concerning northern Netherlands [i.e. OTL Netherlands] is that defence has often included plans for flooding low lying areas to protect the coastal cities which were the core of economic and political power. Is that a practical option for this Netherlands or does the markedly higher population mean this would be impossible? Not saying this is likely to be needed but if things went pear shaped its something the government might have to consider.
Anyway the plot continues to thicken.
Steve
Jakoba indeed is in a position to catch the blame, but she also is in a position to actually influence things. To her, that's more than worth it. She will however have to be very careful indeed, because this is her way to any kind of actual influence. There indeed are lots of issues between the French and the Dutch, over all sorts of things. From the downright petty to big things like who is in command where, and also indeed the deployment of colonial troops. The Dutch don't want them in their homeland, and for now, the French agree. Of course, if the war lasts longer, the Dutch will have to budge on points like that (but then again, that will also concern their own colonial troops). The offensive has been well-planned and of course, there have been discussions about the victory parade through Berlin I however won't say much more than that. Johan knows about it because he is involved in the planning (even if only because the navy right now still dominates the army, and of course, the marine divisions which remain under the navy, although that may change in time). The Marines however have been used all over the world, including in New York (they stormed the coastal fortresses as part of the operation when it still was just a raid), the taking of the first few German Frisian Islands, and a few more such things. The army however really wants to use these troops elsewhere as well. Flooding remains a plan, but because of population growth, it wasn't possible to stop building in areas that were to be flooded. This makes it very difficult, especially politically. In some more outlying areas, it might be possible, but Fortress Holland (and Antwerpen and the like for that matter), just can't be inundated. |
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Jan 7, 2019 23:48:18 GMT
London, January 23, 1914
Dear father, It's truly appalling that Hendrik has been injured in such a way. And to think that mere weeks ago I was in Germany, and even danced with some of those who are responsible for this. I however am grateful to God for sparing Hendrik a worse fate and pray that he will continue to do his duty with distinction. Everything here appears to be going well. I have met with both the British government and the Japanese. The North Americans have refused all invitations for even an exchange of notes. The English foreign secretary has also attempted to speak to their ambassador, but he told be that they refuse any mediation. I fear that it will be necessary to inflict further defeats on them before they can be made to see reason. Fortunately, it seems that the Russians agree with our position and have promised to declare war as well. Our French friends for now refuse to do such a thing, but have agreed to allow us to use any bases we might require. Anyways, I spoke to the Japanese delegation. They desire an end to this war as much as we do, if only because of what I have heard through English sources that I've started to develop. Their government is losing the confidence of the populace, which will lead to them being replaced if the situation continues as it does. I do not believe that there is much of a risk of a popular revolt which would only create more enemies for us in the long run. We have agreed that the ceasefire will be extended and we are currently negotiating an armistice. For the final peace, it has been agreed that it will be discussed here in London once their prime minister has arrived. Together with the French, we are also involved in secret talks with the Italians. If we can bring them into the war, it will provide a valuable distraction for our enemies and they will be forced to back away from further attacks. They however remain unsure, so I am hoping for the success of our upcoming attacks to force their hand. I have also had the distinct displeasure of reading the English newspapers. There appear to be many who believe that we are planning to invade them to permanently break their empire. It also seems that there is considerable internal unrest in Ireland and more and more men are being shifted there. I even read that some believe that we are in league with the Irish, who seem to be deeply divided by faith. Some of them actually are protestant, unlike the English, who deny being Papist while only having made superficial changes. There has also been a rather shocking surprise on the personal level. Elsbeth appears to have left Germany and arrived just the day before. She was quite well, but has had so much to say. It seems that my dear friend Karen has been placed under arrest, being accused of espionage on our behalf. Naturally, such a thing is preposterous, so I will be writing the German ambassador here at once. Elsbeth told me that she has also been accused, and that an attempt was made to arrest her. Fortunately, she managed to escape and using a false name, made her way to England where she heard of my presence here. Naturally, I have offered her to stay here with me for the time being. I hope you do not disapprove. Most of my time has been eaten up by the constant talks and in the evening, there have been so many receptions. I however have also been looking at buildings, and am considering making use of the former Belgian embassy here. I pray that you remain safe and long to be back home. Your loving daughter, Jakoba Battlecruiser Vlijt, January 28, 1914
Dearest Jakoba, It does your mother and me good to hear that you are doing well, but I have to warn you, the English by their very nature are treacherous and you would do well to not trust them. What you write of the North Americans is shocking, but I presume it to be mere bluster. Now that their capitol is fully in our hands and they have suffered so many losses already. Extra liners have been requisitioned to be able to move all the prisoners that have been taken away, which I disagree with because of the threat to the Homeland. I hope that you are correct about the yellows, they appear to be more capable than one would expect of their race, and perhaps more civilised too. But still, they cannot be trusted especially because the English are bound to the Japanese. Their newspapers support this idea. By a French colleague, the commander of their small Channel Fleet, I've been told that the English and the French are traditional enemies, so it is only to be expected that they are waiting for the right moment to stab us into the back. We however are deeply shocked that a friend of yours has been arrested for espionage! How and why would she ever have done such a thing? It's strong proof of German duplicity. They must have arrested Karen out of sheer spite. At least your other friend managed to escape, and I applaud you for offering her sanctuary. At the moment, I don't have much else to say, but I urge you to keep a close eye on the newspapers. Your loving father, Johan Rots
Raunchel
Great to see this active again and definitely missing my fix.
Jakoba's reaction to Hendrik's injury seems rather excessive since her father referred to it as only a leg injury. Unless she's got more news since that its worse or possibly become infected, which is always a problem before antibiotics.
Rather surprised that the Russia have been willing to jump off the fence and actually go to war with the US. They have some knowledge of its resources and potential as a power and despite the political differences between the two were traditionally on fairly decent terms. [Even if someone had started hinting about 'regaining' Alaska I doubted that would be a big enough bait. Also a bit about the Americans being unwilling to meet at all with the Dutch. [Can see the two sides being so far apart that they can't agree at all]. Possibly its a factor of the division inside the US government and no one at this point dares suggest anything but ultimate victory for fear of ending up like Wilson?
I find the sentence highlighted in the para on Japan a bit odd. Does she mean that she doesn't think there would be a revolt against the current government in Japan or that if one occurred it would be no help to the Dutch as it would be markedly more hostile to any concessions to the Dutch? Could understand the latter but the wording sounds wrong for her saying that. Mind you even Johan seems to be coming around to some limited respect of Japan so that could help.
Not surprised that Italy is in talks with the EP [if we call them that for simplicity sake] or that given the belligerent attitude of the Dutch navy earlier and their actions around the world there is a lot of concern about Dutch intentions. If she's actually trying to claim that Anglican - or other Protestant - churches are still fundamentally Catholic, which it might have some accuracy in terms of relevant doctrinal processes it will undermine her standing in negotiations. Whether people view her as offensive or simply foolish it will make it more difficult for them to take her seriously.
The plight of Karen and appearance of Elsbeth is interesting but I wouldn't be too surprised at the Germans seeing Jakoba's friendly that way.
Johan, about from the standard bigotry/xenophobia and the brief mark of respect for the Japanese is worrying about the number of Americans being forcibly deported. That will further anger the US when they hear about it and not sure where and how those prisoners will be held.
Anyway good to see this back again.
Steve
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Jan 8, 2019 0:21:19 GMT
First, another good update raunchel . Second, so Johan does think somebody could read his letter, would that be the enemy ore maybe the Republic. Thank you. Johan is careful about military secrets. You never know where there could be spies! Especially if a letter has to go to England.
Raunchel
Right trying again as my initial attempt I managed to find some key combination that deleted everything! Apologies for the size of this post.
Forgot to respond to the assassination of President Wilson. That will cause further confusion in the US as there could be uncertainty about who's in control especially since the new President, Thomas_R._Marshall, who was not on great terms with Wilson and somewhat excluded from his government. He might be a better leader in the crisis as he seems to have been very much a progressive, opposing the death penalty and eugenics laws, supporting laws against child labour and other social issues.
In terms of the Dutch military it sounds like its similar to Britain's in terms of a relatively small home force, although presumably somewhat larger than Britain's - which I think was ~6Inf and 2-3 Cav divisions of regulars and ~12 divisions of territorial units. In which case they could have some problems, as Britain had, building up a larger army while fighting a major war and also producing the levels of equipment and munitions that this new army needed. Britain had problems for a year or two at least and only really by about 1917 had enough artillery for instance and most of the new armies really fully trained. Possibly not as bad for the Dutch as they need larger forces because of their continental status and also probably because their colonies/overseas republics, with the Dutch often being in the minority often means a more militarised culture. Or it could be we're getting a somewhat slanted view as most of what we're hearing is from one family with a strong military culture.
With a Trent type crisis it could be some ploy by someone in the US, or with some assistance from someone in the UK who thinks the Dutch need to be opposed or the US and Japan supported or simply by accident.
A spell checker that is showing clear signs of AI development is definitely worrying? Have you tried the Turning test on it yet?
OK on why diplomacy is being operated via Britain. I wasn't sure because of the mistrust of the Dutch to their England/Britain but it does make sense given that Britain is about the only great power not at war with anyone, other than possibly Italy.
Also thanks for the info on the voting system and the Caribbean Revolt. Including that it had some local whites supporting it. Was that something that prompted greater rights for the colonial rights to try and separate them from the non-whites?
One of the problems with migrants in the US is that many of them have been there for some years. [Many only really took US citizenship ~1920 after new immigration rules meant their continued status in the country was threatened]. As such some of the Dutch may be suspicious about whether their actually US citizens or supporters, which some might be and also letting so many men leaving their control when they might end up being hostile. As you say the occupation is going to be message and sounds like a classic case of mission drift occurring already.
I'm reminded of a famous line of Kipling's on this. Makes sense in terms of seizing merchantmen. Could be some problems with cases where the ships are carrying foreign flags and in the Dutch exclusion zone or are they being allowed to go about their business after checking their not actually trading with the US?
Agree that any treaty signed by the US, even if it loses no more than the Panama Canal Zone is going to be deeply controversial in the US - as well as probably in the Netherlands - and you could see some levels of political and quite possibly social conflict within the US, possibly for some time to come. Rearmament will definitely occur but that could be a big issue in any treaty as the Dutch will be as determined to minimise this as the Americans to ensure it so think the war could go on for some time.
When you say a moderate peace is this moderate by who's terms? Their viewpoint on defeated opponents seem to be pretty draconian, i.e. for non-Europeans pretty much converting the defeated foe into a de-facto colony controlled by the Dutch. Even the sort of terms that were mentioned for the US originally, with restrictions on US rearmament and them paying an indemnity - IIRC is unlikely to go down well, especially with the rage in the US about the attack and coastal bombardments. Or is the Dutch position softening somewhat because they need everything to fight the war in Europe? Plus if there are Mexican incursions into the US, although probably as likely raids going both ways given the mess Mexico is in at this point, that would further complicate matters. As such think its going to be a while before the two sides come to any agreement. Also to clarify are the Dutch considering more moderate terms regarding Japan or are they angry that the Japanese have resumed fighting - although I rather got the impression that the cease-fire Jakoba had organised was still provisional as I wasn't sure she had the authority to make such an agreement.
Anyway a few more points that come to mind.
a) The other unaligned great power is Italy but I think its unlikely it will now join the CPs. It still would like land owned by Austria, as well as France, but it still has poor relations with the Ottomans after the 1911 war so is unlikely to side with them. More important Dutch entry into the war gives the EPs [including them] a clear naval superiority and Italy, in terms of its coastal cities, infrastructure and trade and dependency on overseas trade is very vulnerable to an hostile naval power. As such I suspect it will either stay neutral or join the EPs and it did so in 1915 so this could be fairly soon. On the other hand you don't get much more Catholic than Italy at this point so that could be issue making them mistrustful of the Dutch as well as vice versa. However the only way I can see them joining the CPs and I think this is unlikely would be if there was a big scandal about alleged abuses of Italian citizens in the US.
b) One thing that occurred OTL and I suspect is still likely would be the deployment of chemical weapons. See Chemical_weapons_in_World_War_I#1915:_Large-scale_use_and_lethal_gases, for more details. It should be noted that both French and Germans had used non-lethal tear gas in 1914, although in such small concentrations that it seems unlikely the victims actually realised they had been attacked. The initial chlorine attacks changed all this. Given their position and world leadership in the chemistry industry I would expect them to lead this again. Its quite likely it would be against the Dutch or possibly the French. Not sure what the Dutch position is on chemical weapons or what their chemical industry is like.
c) Especially given how close the two are and the widespread use of convoys by the Dutch I would expect the Germans to use subs widely, probably quickly adopting undersea attacks without warning as its the only real way for a sub to attack a protected convoy. This might have more or less effect against the Dutch depending on their doctrine and experience. Britain lost a number of ships early on due to not realising the danger from subs but I don't know what the Dutch are like. Also although I think you said they had some airships the Germans definitely do and are likely to use them for scouting, especially at sea but possibly also bombing raids on the Netherlands especially and they do seem to be somewhat unaware of that?
Steve
More will be revealed about the American political situation in the coming updates, but suffice to say, it won't be a clean transition of power. The Dutch indeed have a relatively small home army, but it's been supplemented by white units from the overseas provinces. One thing that the home army especially is lacking in is cavalry because they actually find it difficult to keep several divisions in their heavily urbanised homeland. If they had had a proper cavalry arm, their could have achieved much more against the Germans at the outbreak of the war. Of course, once the frontlines freeze, cavalry is reduced to infantry with fancy names. One big problem is that many units are from 'warrior peoples', these are capable troops, but politically, it's not feasible to bring them to the mainland. They however are being used to effect in America. My spell checker appears to be behaving more or less normally. And it's not like my autocomplete which appears to believe all sorts of funny things. I am however watching it carefully. The Carribean Revolt is one of the things that led to whites in the non-provinces also gaining representation. There were other factors as well of course, there were some parties that thought that they could profit from it (as always). There will of course be all sorts of problems cropping up in America, and by the time it's done, there will be a lot of hatred and there will be a significantly reduced population as well. This however will have all sorts of causes that can be linked to the war and other issues. Ships of neutral powers that aren't actively trading with the USA are allowed to pass. If evidence is found of them visiting American ports however, they are in serious trouble. A moderate peace means one without major penalties to the loser and no major gains to the winner. The Dutch will be aiming to prevent new threats from arising in the future. And a large angry power with a large army and navy definitely qualifies as a threat. So, now the objective in the American war basically is to ensure that the Americans don't actually get any of the wrong ideas. One thing that doesn't help here is that the Dutch don't have a lot of respect for them. They aren't seeing the Americans as a great power because they could kick down the door like they could do to second-rate powers. That's something that won't help with making peace. At the same time, the Dutch indeed have other priorities, especially in Europe. They're willing to settle with the Americans, but the Americans just don't want to talk. They've had their pride hurt too much for that. The Japanese war is a different question. Within Dutch naval circles, some appreciation for the Japanese has arisen because of their good handling of their ships and things like that. Of course, they were still outmatched and beaten, but there is some measure of respect that clashes with the racism. That makes things a bit complicated, but basically, they are willing to make a deal now that Dutch pride has been sated by driving the Japanese back to port and eliminating their capital ships. Jakoba basically is a spokesperson, someone who allows the Dutch government to negotiate without openly doing so. To them, that is a logical way to deal with such matters because it allows for talks without loss of face but also without foreign intermediaries. Right now, they don't really trust anyone. Italy is something that I'm working on. Secret negotiations are underway, but there are lots of complicating factors there. And a lot of Italian nationalism of course. Whatever happens, Italy will be joining the war, but which side remains to be decided. The Dutch don't have a very strong chemical industry like the Germans do have, so they are at a disadvantage there. The Germans will probably be the first to try it, although, of course, some desperate Americans might also try something. The Dutch are aware of a potential for chemical weapons like the other powers were, but it's not something they're prepared for. Of course, such preparations can be made very quickly when the actual need arises. In terms of submarines, that probably is the best way for the Germans to go about things. The Dutch have a slightly better doctrine than the British do to deal with them (convoys), but aside from that, they aren't really ready. The Germans also are incredibly close, which will be another reason for the Dutch to want to press the Frisian Islands campaign. The Dutch also have airships, but only really use them for scouting. To them, using them to bomb people basically is a war crime. Funnily enough, the first air raids on British civilian targets happened in January 1915, but here, they will be looking for other targets. So expect something about that soon.
Raunchel
Ah it does sound like the Dutch are willing to show some flexibility although how much could be crucial. I suspect Jokaba is in an awkward position because any failure or any terms which cause upset in Dutch society are likely to be blamed on her.
I can understand the tension between the French and Dutch forces and there is likely to be a degree of mistrust for a while at least. It might cause serious problems if it leads to a defeat somewhere and possibly even a lot of pointing fingers at that point as to who was responsible. Alternatively the two armies might start learning to trust and respect each other as according to some reports the Catholics and Protestants from Ireland who fought together on the western front OTL did. Also going to be problems sorting out equipment, supply issue and doctrine. Not to mention factors such as where the French will be garrisoned and what happens when the inevitable relationships start developing or if the French start deploying colonial forces to the Dutch front. However the two powers have made the big step of actually starting to work together.
Two things come to mind with Johan's last paragraph. I suspect the offensive would be as successful as most offensives in WWI, i.e. futile and expensive. Especially given that the Dutch are still inexperienced in this war and the French may, boosted by the Dutch becoming allies, still be addicted to offensive actions but this is impractical against any decent defences without a lot of heavy artillery and the doctrine and munitions to use it which I don't think exists anywhere yet, even in Germany.
The other is that since Johan is a naval officer does that suggest there would be an attempt at an amphibious attack? Or is it that he has enough rank and experience to be privy to such information, which he really shouldn't have.
One other point, especially concerning northern Netherlands [i.e. OTL Netherlands] is that defence has often included plans for flooding low lying areas to protect the coastal cities which were the core of economic and political power. Is that a practical option for this Netherlands or does the markedly higher population mean this would be impossible? Not saying this is likely to be needed but if things went pear shaped its something the government might have to consider.
Anyway the plot continues to thicken.
Steve
Jakoba indeed is in a position to catch the blame, but she also is in a position to actually influence things. To her, that's more than worth it. She will however have to be very careful indeed, because this is her way to any kind of actual influence. There indeed are lots of issues between the French and the Dutch, over all sorts of things. From the downright petty to big things like who is in command where, and also indeed the deployment of colonial troops. The Dutch don't want them in their homeland, and for now, the French agree. Of course, if the war lasts longer, the Dutch will have to budge on points like that (but then again, that will also concern their own colonial troops). The offensive has been well-planned and of course, there have been discussions about the victory parade through Berlin I however won't say much more than that. Johan knows about it because he is involved in the planning (even if only because the navy right now still dominates the army, and of course, the marine divisions which remain under the navy, although that may change in time). The Marines however have been used all over the world, including in New York (they stormed the coastal fortresses as part of the operation when it still was just a raid), the taking of the first few German Frisian Islands, and a few more such things. The army however really wants to use these troops elsewhere as well. Flooding remains a plan, but because of population growth, it wasn't possible to stop building in areas that were to be flooded. This makes it very difficult, especially politically. In some more outlying areas, it might be possible, but Fortress Holland (and Antwerpen and the like for that matter), just can't be inundated.
Raunchel
The comments about the US and especially about there being a significantly reduced population sounds very worrying. Unless its that the Dutch end up offering the bulk of the black population a somewhat less abusive status than the US currently but I fear that's not going to be the reason for the population drop. 
How are the Dutch getting food imports currently? N America isn't going to be supplying any as Canada and what the US can export is probably going to Britain and with Turkey in the war they won't be getting any from Russia. Possibly their colonies in S Africa and S American are providing a lot but that could well be disrupted because of the war. [Thinking less enemy action, although that might start occurring with mining and the like of Dutch ports than simply the disruption of trade as shipping is being diverted to military demands. Not expecting serious shortfalls but probably some disruption of supplies as a result.
The problem I see with attempts at a moderate peace with the US is that I can't see the US not rejected any military reductions on its forces, especially after its been shown to be so vulnerable. Nor with the stance of the Dutch that many of their leaders will think "to ensure that the Americans don't actually get any of the wrong ideas" will be exactly to make clear to them that they can't have such forces. As such I can see a lasting impasse here.
Agree its virtually certain that the Germans will start using chemical weapons, especially since in a number of ways their position looks bad. [Although after the forthcoming Franco-Dutch campaign which for a number of reasons I expect to fail badly, they may be less worried.] Also that they will seek to use subs, both by mines and torpedoes to counter their inferiority at sea. Although they need to be careful with that as USW is likely to anger Britain and that's the last thing they can afford to do. Ditto quite possibly they will use airships for bombing as well as scouting and the Dutch cities are a lot closer than the British ones which could make such attacks a lot easier.
I suspect the French will be happy, after their losses, keeping their colonial troops defending France but how many troops they will commit to fighting in the Netherland would be an issue and under what circumstances. OTL Britain largely followed the French lead on the western front because the French army was vastly larger, until 1916 at least and more experienced. Here the Dutch have the smaller army, although I suspect they will be seeking to raise a lot more men and its largely their own country that is going to be fought over so there will be pressure on them to make concessions.
What stance is the government taking on increasing the size of the army? Still hoping it won't be necessary, calling for volunteers or do they have a conscription system?
Marines are pretty good for what their trained for, especially amphibious assaults and operating small naval forces on shore or in river combats but they lack the heavy equipment and doctrine for a frontal land battle, especially a prolonged one. At least unless the attack is somewhere they can get naval gun support, which could be difficult I suspect. As such if their thrown into a big battle they could suffer badly, as will all forces unprepared for such conflicts, which other than to a limited degree the French and German armies after the clashes so far, is everybody else. Unless the Dutch have recent experience of such conflicts in their own world but it doesn't sound like it.
Two other points to consider.
a) OTL the Gallipoli campaign seems to have delayed the Bulgarian decision to join the CPs. Presuming something like that hasn't happened yet it could be that Bulgaria will make such a move earlier, which would be the end for Serbia as even if the Germans didn't get forces there it exposes the long Serbia eastern flank. This would free up Austrian forces for defence against Italy and Russia a bit earlier and also give an overland link between Turkey and the rest of the CPs.
b) What is the status of Scandinavia? OTL it weaved a nervous neutrality, trading with both sides and putting up with EP limitations on its imports to minimise what was passed onto Germany. The Dutch are an unknown factor and sound distinctly more aggressive on issues of total blockade so I wonder if there will be tension here and what the three Scandinavia states will do in response. Also too much pressure on them could upset Britain which also has trade with them. Its all a very messy situation and could go any number of ways.
Before I forget how are events in Ireland without the invasion of Belgium prompting British intervention in the war? Still a ticking time bomb or is the wider world crisis meaning both extremes are more willing to compromise. There were attempts that came close OTL and possibly that could happen here, although it would take years at least to get a wider degree of mutual respect between the two communities.
Anyway enough for now. Thanks again for the update.
Steve
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raunchel
Commander
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Post by raunchel on Jan 8, 2019 17:14:23 GMT
London, January 23, 1914
Dear father, It's truly appalling that Hendrik has been injured in such a way. And to think that mere weeks ago I was in Germany, and even danced with some of those who are responsible for this. I however am grateful to God for sparing Hendrik a worse fate and pray that he will continue to do his duty with distinction. Everything here appears to be going well. I have met with both the British government and the Japanese. The North Americans have refused all invitations for even an exchange of notes. The English foreign secretary has also attempted to speak to their ambassador, but he told be that they refuse any mediation. I fear that it will be necessary to inflict further defeats on them before they can be made to see reason. Fortunately, it seems that the Russians agree with our position and have promised to declare war as well. Our French friends for now refuse to do such a thing, but have agreed to allow us to use any bases we might require. Anyways, I spoke to the Japanese delegation. They desire an end to this war as much as we do, if only because of what I have heard through English sources that I've started to develop. Their government is losing the confidence of the populace, which will lead to them being replaced if the situation continues as it does. I do not believe that there is much of a risk of a popular revolt which would only create more enemies for us in the long run. We have agreed that the ceasefire will be extended and we are currently negotiating an armistice. For the final peace, it has been agreed that it will be discussed here in London once their prime minister has arrived. Together with the French, we are also involved in secret talks with the Italians. If we can bring them into the war, it will provide a valuable distraction for our enemies and they will be forced to back away from further attacks. They however remain unsure, so I am hoping for the success of our upcoming attacks to force their hand. I have also had the distinct displeasure of reading the English newspapers. There appear to be many who believe that we are planning to invade them to permanently break their empire. It also seems that there is considerable internal unrest in Ireland and more and more men are being shifted there. I even read that some believe that we are in league with the Irish, who seem to be deeply divided by faith. Some of them actually are protestant, unlike the English, who deny being Papist while only having made superficial changes. There has also been a rather shocking surprise on the personal level. Elsbeth appears to have left Germany and arrived just the day before. She was quite well, but has had so much to say. It seems that my dear friend Karen has been placed under arrest, being accused of espionage on our behalf. Naturally, such a thing is preposterous, so I will be writing the German ambassador here at once. Elsbeth told me that she has also been accused, and that an attempt was made to arrest her. Fortunately, she managed to escape and using a false name, made her way to England where she heard of my presence here. Naturally, I have offered her to stay here with me for the time being. I hope you do not disapprove. Most of my time has been eaten up by the constant talks and in the evening, there have been so many receptions. I however have also been looking at buildings, and am considering making use of the former Belgian embassy here. I pray that you remain safe and long to be back home. Your loving daughter, Jakoba Battlecruiser Vlijt, January 28, 1914
Dearest Jakoba, It does your mother and me good to hear that you are doing well, but I have to warn you, the English by their very nature are treacherous and you would do well to not trust them. What you write of the North Americans is shocking, but I presume it to be mere bluster. Now that their capitol is fully in our hands and they have suffered so many losses already. Extra liners have been requisitioned to be able to move all the prisoners that have been taken away, which I disagree with because of the threat to the Homeland. I hope that you are correct about the yellows, they appear to be more capable than one would expect of their race, and perhaps more civilised too. But still, they cannot be trusted especially because the English are bound to the Japanese. Their newspapers support this idea. By a French colleague, the commander of their small Channel Fleet, I've been told that the English and the French are traditional enemies, so it is only to be expected that they are waiting for the right moment to stab us into the back. We however are deeply shocked that a friend of yours has been arrested for espionage! How and why would she ever have done such a thing? It's strong proof of German duplicity. They must have arrested Karen out of sheer spite. At least your other friend managed to escape, and I applaud you for offering her sanctuary. At the moment, I don't have much else to say, but I urge you to keep a close eye on the newspapers. Your loving father, Johan Rots
Raunchel
Great to see this active again and definitely missing my fix.
Jakoba's reaction to Hendrik's injury seems rather excessive since her father referred to it as only a leg injury. Unless she's got more news since that its worse or possibly become infected, which is always a problem before antibiotics.
Rather surprised that the Russia have been willing to jump off the fence and actually go to war with the US. They have some knowledge of its resources and potential as a power and despite the political differences between the two were traditionally on fairly decent terms. [Even if someone had started hinting about 'regaining' Alaska I doubted that would be a big enough bait. Also a bit about the Americans being unwilling to meet at all with the Dutch. [Can see the two sides being so far apart that they can't agree at all]. Possibly its a factor of the division inside the US government and no one at this point dares suggest anything but ultimate victory for fear of ending up like Wilson?
I find the sentence highlighted in the para on Japan a bit odd. Does she mean that she doesn't think there would be a revolt against the current government in Japan or that if one occurred it would be no help to the Dutch as it would be markedly more hostile to any concessions to the Dutch? Could understand the latter but the wording sounds wrong for her saying that. Mind you even Johan seems to be coming around to some limited respect of Japan so that could help.
Not surprised that Italy is in talks with the EP [if we call them that for simplicity sake] or that given the belligerent attitude of the Dutch navy earlier and their actions around the world there is a lot of concern about Dutch intentions. If she's actually trying to claim that Anglican - or other Protestant - churches are still fundamentally Catholic, which it might have some accuracy in terms of relevant doctrinal processes it will undermine her standing in negotiations. Whether people view her as offensive or simply foolish it will make it more difficult for them to take her seriously.
The plight of Karen and appearance of Elsbeth is interesting but I wouldn't be too surprised at the Germans seeing Jakoba's friendly that way.
Johan, about from the standard bigotry/xenophobia and the brief mark of respect for the Japanese is worrying about the number of Americans being forcibly deported. That will further anger the US when they hear about it and not sure where and how those prisoners will be held.
Anyway good to see this back again.
Steve
Jakoba is mostly shocked by the injury because it basically is proof of how dangerous war is. Her brother actually got shot and hit, and remains at the front lines. That isn't something she feels all that happy or good about. Russia has gone to war for multiple reasons. One of the main ones is pressure from their new ally which is promising to send supplies. The Dutch also really want to increase the pressure to somehow get the Americans to finally see reason and fold. Naturally, it's not really going to work, but they don't know that. The Russians also don't see much of a great cost in it, they expect the Americans to give up soon anyways, and they might even profit from this! Of course, not all of the Tsar's advisors are the very best that can be found. She thinks that any revolt in Japan would have bad effects, because she thinks that it will lead to a government less likely to make peace. She however thinks that it is very unlikely that the government can be brought down. The American issue indeed is partially caused by a fear of further assassinations, but there also is a lot more happening in there. Jakoba isn't publicly claiming that Anglicanism is a form of Catholicism, but from an outside perspective, it very strongly looks like that. Theologically, they also are rather close. None of that is being said in public of course. Jakoba isn't that stupid. The Germans have plenty of reason to want to arrest those who are close with Jakoba. She after all did manage to obtain quite some non-public information. And, of course, it always is clever to look closely at people who associated with the few representatives of a country that you have just found yourself at war with. Unfortunately, they weren't too kind to suspected spies at the time. But Elsbeth did escape at least. The people being shipped out also are prisoners of war, quite a few of them have been taken in poorly-organised attacks and the like. Of course, deportations also are a low priority because there are far more important people to be moved, like masses of soldiers. Thank you. Johan is careful about military secrets. You never know where there could be spies! Especially if a letter has to go to England. More will be revealed about the American political situation in the coming updates, but suffice to say, it won't be a clean transition of power. The Dutch indeed have a relatively small home army, but it's been supplemented by white units from the overseas provinces. One thing that the home army especially is lacking in is cavalry because they actually find it difficult to keep several divisions in their heavily urbanised homeland. If they had had a proper cavalry arm, their could have achieved much more against the Germans at the outbreak of the war. Of course, once the frontlines freeze, cavalry is reduced to infantry with fancy names. One big problem is that many units are from 'warrior peoples', these are capable troops, but politically, it's not feasible to bring them to the mainland. They however are being used to effect in America. My spell checker appears to be behaving more or less normally. And it's not like my autocomplete which appears to believe all sorts of funny things. I am however watching it carefully. The Carribean Revolt is one of the things that led to whites in the non-provinces also gaining representation. There were other factors as well of course, there were some parties that thought that they could profit from it (as always). There will of course be all sorts of problems cropping up in America, and by the time it's done, there will be a lot of hatred and there will be a significantly reduced population as well. This however will have all sorts of causes that can be linked to the war and other issues. Ships of neutral powers that aren't actively trading with the USA are allowed to pass. If evidence is found of them visiting American ports however, they are in serious trouble. A moderate peace means one without major penalties to the loser and no major gains to the winner. The Dutch will be aiming to prevent new threats from arising in the future. And a large angry power with a large army and navy definitely qualifies as a threat. So, now the objective in the American war basically is to ensure that the Americans don't actually get any of the wrong ideas. One thing that doesn't help here is that the Dutch don't have a lot of respect for them. They aren't seeing the Americans as a great power because they could kick down the door like they could do to second-rate powers. That's something that won't help with making peace. At the same time, the Dutch indeed have other priorities, especially in Europe. They're willing to settle with the Americans, but the Americans just don't want to talk. They've had their pride hurt too much for that. The Japanese war is a different question. Within Dutch naval circles, some appreciation for the Japanese has arisen because of their good handling of their ships and things like that. Of course, they were still outmatched and beaten, but there is some measure of respect that clashes with the racism. That makes things a bit complicated, but basically, they are willing to make a deal now that Dutch pride has been sated by driving the Japanese back to port and eliminating their capital ships. Jakoba basically is a spokesperson, someone who allows the Dutch government to negotiate without openly doing so. To them, that is a logical way to deal with such matters because it allows for talks without loss of face but also without foreign intermediaries. Right now, they don't really trust anyone. Italy is something that I'm working on. Secret negotiations are underway, but there are lots of complicating factors there. And a lot of Italian nationalism of course. Whatever happens, Italy will be joining the war, but which side remains to be decided. The Dutch don't have a very strong chemical industry like the Germans do have, so they are at a disadvantage there. The Germans will probably be the first to try it, although, of course, some desperate Americans might also try something. The Dutch are aware of a potential for chemical weapons like the other powers were, but it's not something they're prepared for. Of course, such preparations can be made very quickly when the actual need arises. In terms of submarines, that probably is the best way for the Germans to go about things. The Dutch have a slightly better doctrine than the British do to deal with them (convoys), but aside from that, they aren't really ready. The Germans also are incredibly close, which will be another reason for the Dutch to want to press the Frisian Islands campaign. The Dutch also have airships, but only really use them for scouting. To them, using them to bomb people basically is a war crime. Funnily enough, the first air raids on British civilian targets happened in January 1915, but here, they will be looking for other targets. So expect something about that soon. Jakoba indeed is in a position to catch the blame, but she also is in a position to actually influence things. To her, that's more than worth it. She will however have to be very careful indeed, because this is her way to any kind of actual influence. There indeed are lots of issues between the French and the Dutch, over all sorts of things. From the downright petty to big things like who is in command where, and also indeed the deployment of colonial troops. The Dutch don't want them in their homeland, and for now, the French agree. Of course, if the war lasts longer, the Dutch will have to budge on points like that (but then again, that will also concern their own colonial troops). The offensive has been well-planned and of course, there have been discussions about the victory parade through Berlin I however won't say much more than that. Johan knows about it because he is involved in the planning (even if only because the navy right now still dominates the army, and of course, the marine divisions which remain under the navy, although that may change in time). The Marines however have been used all over the world, including in New York (they stormed the coastal fortresses as part of the operation when it still was just a raid), the taking of the first few German Frisian Islands, and a few more such things. The army however really wants to use these troops elsewhere as well. Flooding remains a plan, but because of population growth, it wasn't possible to stop building in areas that were to be flooded. This makes it very difficult, especially politically. In some more outlying areas, it might be possible, but Fortress Holland (and Antwerpen and the like for that matter), just can't be inundated.
Raunchel
The comments about the US and especially about there being a significantly reduced population sounds very worrying. Unless its that the Dutch end up offering the bulk of the black population a somewhat less abusive status than the US currently but I fear that's not going to be the reason for the population drop.
How are the Dutch getting food imports currently? N America isn't going to be supplying any as Canada and what the US can export is probably going to Britain and with Turkey in the war they won't be getting any from Russia. Possibly their colonies in S Africa and S American are providing a lot but that could well be disrupted because of the war. [Thinking less enemy action, although that might start occurring with mining and the like of Dutch ports than simply the disruption of trade as shipping is being diverted to military demands. Not expecting serious shortfalls but probably some disruption of supplies as a result.
The problem I see with attempts at a moderate peace with the US is that I can't see the US not rejected any military reductions on its forces, especially after its been shown to be so vulnerable. Nor with the stance of the Dutch that many of their leaders will think "to ensure that the Americans don't actually get any of the wrong ideas" will be exactly to make clear to them that they can't have such forces. As such I can see a lasting impasse here.
Agree its virtually certain that the Germans will start using chemical weapons, especially since in a number of ways their position looks bad. [Although after the forthcoming Franco-Dutch campaign which for a number of reasons I expect to fail badly, they may be less worried.] Also that they will seek to use subs, both by mines and torpedoes to counter their inferiority at sea. Although they need to be careful with that as USW is likely to anger Britain and that's the last thing they can afford to do. Ditto quite possibly they will use airships for bombing as well as scouting and the Dutch cities are a lot closer than the British ones which could make such attacks a lot easier.
I suspect the French will be happy, after their losses, keeping their colonial troops defending France but how many troops they will commit to fighting in the Netherland would be an issue and under what circumstances. OTL Britain largely followed the French lead on the western front because the French army was vastly larger, until 1916 at least and more experienced. Here the Dutch have the smaller army, although I suspect they will be seeking to raise a lot more men and its largely their own country that is going to be fought over so there will be pressure on them to make concessions.
What stance is the government taking on increasing the size of the army? Still hoping it won't be necessary, calling for volunteers or do they have a conscription system?
Marines are pretty good for what their trained for, especially amphibious assaults and operating small naval forces on shore or in river combats but they lack the heavy equipment and doctrine for a frontal land battle, especially a prolonged one. At least unless the attack is somewhere they can get naval gun support, which could be difficult I suspect. As such if their thrown into a big battle they could suffer badly, as will all forces unprepared for such conflicts, which other than to a limited degree the French and German armies after the clashes so far, is everybody else. Unless the Dutch have recent experience of such conflicts in their own world but it doesn't sound like it.
Two other points to consider.
a) OTL the Gallipoli campaign seems to have delayed the Bulgarian decision to join the CPs. Presuming something like that hasn't happened yet it could be that Bulgaria will make such a move earlier, which would be the end for Serbia as even if the Germans didn't get forces there it exposes the long Serbia eastern flank. This would free up Austrian forces for defence against Italy and Russia a bit earlier and also give an overland link between Turkey and the rest of the CPs.
b) What is the status of Scandinavia? OTL it weaved a nervous neutrality, trading with both sides and putting up with EP limitations on its imports to minimise what was passed onto Germany. The Dutch are an unknown factor and sound distinctly more aggressive on issues of total blockade so I wonder if there will be tension here and what the three Scandinavia states will do in response. Also too much pressure on them could upset Britain which also has trade with them. Its all a very messy situation and could go any number of ways.
Before I forget how are events in Ireland without the invasion of Belgium prompting British intervention in the war? Still a ticking time bomb or is the wider world crisis meaning both extremes are more willing to compromise. There were attempts that came close OTL and possibly that could happen here, although it would take years at least to get a wider degree of mutual respect between the two communities.
Anyway enough for now. Thanks again for the update.
Steve
There are going to be lots of reasons for a population drop, ranging from rather heavy casualties, a disrupted infrastructure, internal issues, and a few more fun things. The Dutch still have enough food for their own territories, mostly from Africa and South America. They however are suffering some issues with sending sufficient food to the bits of America they have now occupied. This means rationing, and that also has its very own issues. The US will naturally reject any and all overtures for peace, especially if it includes any reductions on them. At the same time, the Dutch can't let them off, especially not now they're busy burning the country to the ground. The command situation between the Dutch and French indeed is complicated, and there are lots of talks going on there. Both however really need each other. If the Germans can break through the Dutch, the French face a rather difficult situation there. At the same time, the Dutch can't do without French troops yet, especially with the distraction in North America (even if it is mostly being met with colonial troops). The Dutch government is doing everything it can to increase the size of the army, they have even gone as far as passing a law that allows for the recruitment of mixed-race soldiers for use overseas. They have also activated the conscription laws that they had for emergencies. Marines indeed are best for naval operations. At the time however, there is a need for trained troops. And those troops have to be found somewhere. Unfortunately, that's the kind of thing that can lead to troops being wasted in a role that doesn't fit them. There will soon be some big developments, but for now, Bulgaria remains neutral along with several other countries. In Scandinavia, there now is more pressure on Sweden and Norway. The Swedes haven't yet mined the Sound, because the German pressure hasn't worked its effect yet. There is a lot of insecurity there about the international situation, but for now, some kind of peace remains. Ireland is starting to catch fire, but the government is focusing on other things, like vital parts of the empire being gone and the world being on fire already. |
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Jan 8, 2019 17:15:54 GMT
London, February 2 1915
Dear Father,
There is so much happening, but your letters are a solid rock to support me. I can’t help but worry in this difficult time, with Hendrik being injured, showing the danger that he is in, and I know that you face a similar peril, and that Johan will soon face it as well.
And so many of my thoughts go to Karen. I have spoken to the Germans about this, indirectly of course, but they believe that there is little that can be done. The case has also been publicized about, much to my surprise. They claim that Karen was involved in stealing documents and meetings with officials, which is utterly unbelievable because she was busy enough as my secretary.
Just two days ago, I received an invitation for tea from the wife of Navy Secretary, who is called the First Lord of the Admiralty here. I was a little curious about why this would be, so I couldn’t refuse. So, I called on her and was introduced to the lady and her husband. To my surprise, he congratulated me on your engagement with the Germans.
To my surprise, he seemed to be most curious about you and our fleet, but I managed to not say much while using many words. Despite my hopes, he didn’t leave us alone to speak of more ladylike subjects and kept asking about our navy. I presume that he hoped that I would reveal more, but naturally, I didn’t. He also spoke about the current American war. It seems that his mother is from North America, so he feels attached to them and hopes that some kind of peace can be achieved. I expressed that that also is one of my deepest wishes, but that it so far has been impossible to establish contact.
Through sources that I’m developing here, I found a little more about the North American political situation that confirms what we already knew. Their president was assassinated by extreme elements in the army, with an officer shooting him. The natural successor, the vice president, has not been given the position at first and it seems that it has been offered to this warmonger Roosevelt I mentioned in an earlier letter. He however refused, leading to the vice president ascending to the presidency, although English sources report that he is under close control of a group of extremists.
There however also are much more shocking things that have been happening. I have been told that there have been many horrible murders and other crimes taking place, especially ones aimed at immigrants of Dutch descent. There have also been primitivist religious groups that have been attacked because of beliefs that they support us. Merely reading or hearing about such things is terrible, and I pray that something can be done to protect these innocents.
The Japanese situation also is becoming more complicated. I have been told that they are calling on the English to support them openly now that the Russians have declared war on North America alongside us. They seem to believe that we are planning on bringing in the Russians against them as well. This unfortunately has led to a temporary setback in our talks, so I concluded that more pressure will be necessary. Because of this, I asked Mr Roelands to send a message to The Hague to request admiral Oude Luttinkhuis if he sees any opportunity to do this.
The English press remains busy with all sorts of things, but the Irish question is coming to the forefront. It seems that there have been violent clashes on the island, but overall, the situation remains unclear. It seems that those who wish to remain with England are actually attacking the English. Or so it seems. I fear that this whole situation just is beyond me.
With that, I however have to end this letter. I look forward to seeing your next one and pray for your continued safety.
Your faithful daughter,
Jakoba
Battlecruiser Geweten, February 6 1915
Dearest Jakoba,
The German enemy is proving himself to be truly monstrous. A day after you sent your last letter, from an airship, they threw bombs on Groningen. Several houses have been struck, and whole families were murdered. Mere hours after that terrible act, I launched my planned attack. By radio I was informed of this, and naturally, I told my men about what had happened which stoked the fire of righteousness within them.
I attacked in the night, alongside rear admiral Roeland Knap’s ninth battle squadron of older ships. They delivered a bombardment on Heligoland, and as I had hoped, the Germans sortied. Knap withdrew as we had planned when the enemy scouting forces arrived, and I was able to engage them until their main body would arrive. During this firefight, Vlijt was hit several times, and will have to be repaired.
Our ships however did fire back as they should, and two enemy battlecruisers suffered serious hits and one withdrew with a heavy list. We also sunk at least one cruiser, further weakening them. It is not the victory that we hope for, and for that, I am sorry, but it shows the Germans their place. I wish that I could have been in the position to bombard their cities in retaliation for their crimes, both to our own population and to your friend.
The North American situation that you describe is troublesome, but there is no other option but to put further pressure on them by inflicting further defeats. I have been told that for now, no further offensives will take place, except on a local level to reach more easily defended ground.
I pray for your continued good health and that you may soon come home again.
Your loving father,
Johan Rots
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 8, 2019 19:25:03 GMT
London, February 2 1915Dear Father, There is so much happening, but your letters are a solid rock to support me. I can’t help but worry in this difficult time, with Hendrik being injured, showing the danger that he is in, and I know that you face a similar peril, and that Johan will soon face it as well. And so many of my thoughts go to Karen. I have spoken to the Germans about this, indirectly of course, but they believe that there is little that can be done. The case has also been publicized about, much to my surprise. They claim that Karen was involved in stealing documents and meetings with officials, which is utterly unbelievable because she was busy enough as my secretary. Just two days ago, I received an invitation for tea from the wife of Navy Secretary, who is called the First Lord of the Admiralty here. I was a little curious about why this would be, so I couldn’t refuse. So, I called on her and was introduced to the lady and her husband. To my surprise, he congratulated me on your engagement with the Germans. Another good update raunchel Would this be a certain Churchill she is meeting. Through sources that I’m developing here, I found a little more about the North American political situation that confirms what we already knew. Their president was assassinated by extreme elements in the army, with an officer shooting him. The natural successor, the vice president, has not been given the position at first and it seems that it has been offered to this warmonger Roosevelt I mentioned in an earlier letter. He however refused, leading to the vice president ascending to the presidency, although English sources report that he is under close control of a group of extremists. Well the United states is in a dire situation when this happens, a coup event almost. |
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Jan 9, 2019 9:49:10 GMT
London, February 2 1915Dear Father, There is so much happening, but your letters are a solid rock to support me. I can’t help but worry in this difficult time, with Hendrik being injured, showing the danger that he is in, and I know that you face a similar peril, and that Johan will soon face it as well. And so many of my thoughts go to Karen. I have spoken to the Germans about this, indirectly of course, but they believe that there is little that can be done. The case has also been publicized about, much to my surprise. They claim that Karen was involved in stealing documents and meetings with officials, which is utterly unbelievable because she was busy enough as my secretary. Just two days ago, I received an invitation for tea from the wife of Navy Secretary, who is called the First Lord of the Admiralty here. I was a little curious about why this would be, so I couldn’t refuse. So, I called on her and was introduced to the lady and her husband. To my surprise, he congratulated me on your engagement with the Germans. Another good update raunchel Would this be a certain Churchill she is meeting. Through sources that I’m developing here, I found a little more about the North American political situation that confirms what we already knew. Their president was assassinated by extreme elements in the army, with an officer shooting him. The natural successor, the vice president, has not been given the position at first and it seems that it has been offered to this warmonger Roosevelt I mentioned in an earlier letter. He however refused, leading to the vice president ascending to the presidency, although English sources report that he is under close control of a group of extremists. Well the United states is in a dire situation when this happens, a coup event almost. Jakoba indeed got to meet the Churchills, who of course, are very hard to keep away from prominence. And in the US, there basically was a coup yes. I know that it is a bit shocking, but this is a pretty horrific situation for the US to be in, and extremist elements are taking over. |
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Jan 9, 2019 9:49:44 GMT
London, February 10, 1914
Dear Father,
The most terrible news has come from Germany. Karen has been convicted, and they are going to execute her for treason and espionage. I don’t know what I can do except pray. I have given the German ambassador a letter to present to the emperor, calling on his friendship and asking for mercy for poor Karen. I know that there is so little chance that I can do anything at all, but I don’t know what else can be done.
I am also using all the contacts that I still have in Berlin, I can’t stand the thought of such a dear friend being murdered over a misunderstanding. She’s completely innocent, all she did was deliver some letters for me. That’s all of it. She never did anything even vaguely illegal, she just delivered some notes to some friends because I was too busy to do it myself. I don’t know what to do about this.
Your desperate daughter,
Jakoba
Battlecruiser Geweten, February 14, 1914
Dearest Jakoba,
It truly pains me to read that your friend has been convicted for espionage, and I am completely certain that she is completely innocent of all these accusations. It is truly beyond words that they would murder a young woman like your dear friend, and I pray that your work will achieve some measure of success. It is hard for me to admit it, but I don’t see any way in which I can help. Only ending the war right now could do that, and such a thing isn’t in my power as the Germans avoid a direct confrontation.
Here, things have been running their normal course for the war so far. The Germans have remained in their ports, reducing us to patrolling the seas to keep them there. They however have persisted in their aerial attacks, and have bombed Groningen a second time, and our own army has proven to be helpless against it. It has been decided that special units of aeroplanes will be formed that will be tasked with protecting our country from this peril.
But that naturally is of little interest to you, and I want you to know that you are in my prayers. Several verses come to mind, Deuteronomy 19:16 in particular. Scripture is clear enough on how wrong it is to accuse the innocent, and I am solid in my faith that God will have His justice.
Your mother wants me to write that she too is shocked, and that we all pray for your dear friend.
Your loving father,
Johan Rots
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 9, 2019 13:39:26 GMT
London, February 10, 1914Dear Father, The most terrible news has come from Germany. Karen has been convicted, and they are going to execute her for treason and espionage. I don’t know what I can do except pray. I have given the German ambassador a letter to present to the emperor, calling on his friendship and asking for mercy for poor Karen. I know that there is so little chance that I can do anything at all, but I don’t know what else can be done. I am also using all the contacts that I still have in Berlin, I can’t stand the thought of such a dear friend being murdered over a misunderstanding. She’s completely innocent, all she did was deliver some letters for me. That’s all of it. She never did anything even vaguely illegal, she just delivered some notes to some friends because I was too busy to do it myself. I don’t know what to do about this. Your desperate daughter, Jakoba Battlecruiser Geweten, February 14, 1914Dearest Jakoba, It truly pains me to read that your friend has been convicted for espionage, and I am completely certain that she is completely innocent of all these accusations. It is truly beyond words that they would murder a young woman like your dear friend, and I pray that your work will achieve some measure of success. It is hard for me to admit it, but I don’t see any way in which I can help. Only ending the war right now could do that, and such a thing isn’t in my power as the Germans avoid a direct confrontation. Here, things have been running their normal course for the war so far. The Germans have remained in their ports, reducing us to patrolling the seas to keep them there. They however have persisted in their aerial attacks, and have bombed Groningen a second time, and our own army has proven to be helpless against it. It has been decided that special units of aeroplanes will be formed that will be tasked with protecting our country from this peril. But that naturally is of little interest to you, and I want you to know that you are in my prayers. Several verses come to mind, Deuteronomy 19:16 in particular. Scripture is clear enough on how wrong it is to accuse the innocent, and I am solid in my faith that God will have His justice. Your mother wants me to write that she too is shocked, and that we all pray for your dear friend. Your loving father, Johan Rots Great update as always raunchel. Did the Germans already in 1914 have the bombers and the range to reach a city like Groningen. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 9, 2019 19:09:56 GMT
Raunchel
Great to see this active again and definitely missing my fix.
Jakoba's reaction to Hendrik's injury seems rather excessive since her father referred to it as only a leg injury. Unless she's got more news since that its worse or possibly become infected, which is always a problem before antibiotics.
Rather surprised that the Russia have been willing to jump off the fence and actually go to war with the US. They have some knowledge of its resources and potential as a power and despite the political differences between the two were traditionally on fairly decent terms. [Even if someone had started hinting about 'regaining' Alaska I doubted that would be a big enough bait. Also a bit about the Americans being unwilling to meet at all with the Dutch. [Can see the two sides being so far apart that they can't agree at all]. Possibly its a factor of the division inside the US government and no one at this point dares suggest anything but ultimate victory for fear of ending up like Wilson?
I find the sentence highlighted in the para on Japan a bit odd. Does she mean that she doesn't think there would be a revolt against the current government in Japan or that if one occurred it would be no help to the Dutch as it would be markedly more hostile to any concessions to the Dutch? Could understand the latter but the wording sounds wrong for her saying that. Mind you even Johan seems to be coming around to some limited respect of Japan so that could help.
Not surprised that Italy is in talks with the EP [if we call them that for simplicity sake] or that given the belligerent attitude of the Dutch navy earlier and their actions around the world there is a lot of concern about Dutch intentions. If she's actually trying to claim that Anglican - or other Protestant - churches are still fundamentally Catholic, which it might have some accuracy in terms of relevant doctrinal processes it will undermine her standing in negotiations. Whether people view her as offensive or simply foolish it will make it more difficult for them to take her seriously.
The plight of Karen and appearance of Elsbeth is interesting but I wouldn't be too surprised at the Germans seeing Jakoba's friendly that way.
Johan, about from the standard bigotry/xenophobia and the brief mark of respect for the Japanese is worrying about the number of Americans being forcibly deported. That will further anger the US when they hear about it and not sure where and how those prisoners will be held.
Anyway good to see this back again.
Steve
Jakoba is mostly shocked by the injury because it basically is proof of how dangerous war is. Her brother actually got shot and hit, and remains at the front lines. That isn't something she feels all that happy or good about. Russia has gone to war for multiple reasons. One of the main ones is pressure from their new ally which is promising to send supplies. The Dutch also really want to increase the pressure to somehow get the Americans to finally see reason and fold. Naturally, it's not really going to work, but they don't know that. The Russians also don't see much of a great cost in it, they expect the Americans to give up soon anyways, and they might even profit from this! Of course, not all of the Tsar's advisors are the very best that can be found. She thinks that any revolt in Japan would have bad effects, because she thinks that it will lead to a government less likely to make peace. She however thinks that it is very unlikely that the government can be brought down. The American issue indeed is partially caused by a fear of further assassinations, but there also is a lot more happening in there. Jakoba isn't publicly claiming that Anglicanism is a form of Catholicism, but from an outside perspective, it very strongly looks like that. Theologically, they also are rather close. None of that is being said in public of course. Jakoba isn't that stupid. The Germans have plenty of reason to want to arrest those who are close with Jakoba. She after all did manage to obtain quite some non-public information. And, of course, it always is clever to look closely at people who associated with the few representatives of a country that you have just found yourself at war with. Unfortunately, they weren't too kind to suspected spies at the time. But Elsbeth did escape at least. The people being shipped out also are prisoners of war, quite a few of them have been taken in poorly-organised attacks and the like. Of course, deportations also are a low priority because there are far more important people to be moved, like masses of soldiers.
Raunchel
The comments about the US and especially about there being a significantly reduced population sounds very worrying. Unless its that the Dutch end up offering the bulk of the black population a somewhat less abusive status than the US currently but I fear that's not going to be the reason for the population drop.
How are the Dutch getting food imports currently? N America isn't going to be supplying any as Canada and what the US can export is probably going to Britain and with Turkey in the war they won't be getting any from Russia. Possibly their colonies in S Africa and S American are providing a lot but that could well be disrupted because of the war. [Thinking less enemy action, although that might start occurring with mining and the like of Dutch ports than simply the disruption of trade as shipping is being diverted to military demands. Not expecting serious shortfalls but probably some disruption of supplies as a result.
The problem I see with attempts at a moderate peace with the US is that I can't see the US not rejected any military reductions on its forces, especially after its been shown to be so vulnerable. Nor with the stance of the Dutch that many of their leaders will think "to ensure that the Americans don't actually get any of the wrong ideas" will be exactly to make clear to them that they can't have such forces. As such I can see a lasting impasse here.
Agree its virtually certain that the Germans will start using chemical weapons, especially since in a number of ways their position looks bad. [Although after the forthcoming Franco-Dutch campaign which for a number of reasons I expect to fail badly, they may be less worried.] Also that they will seek to use subs, both by mines and torpedoes to counter their inferiority at sea. Although they need to be careful with that as USW is likely to anger Britain and that's the last thing they can afford to do. Ditto quite possibly they will use airships for bombing as well as scouting and the Dutch cities are a lot closer than the British ones which could make such attacks a lot easier.
I suspect the French will be happy, after their losses, keeping their colonial troops defending France but how many troops they will commit to fighting in the Netherland would be an issue and under what circumstances. OTL Britain largely followed the French lead on the western front because the French army was vastly larger, until 1916 at least and more experienced. Here the Dutch have the smaller army, although I suspect they will be seeking to raise a lot more men and its largely their own country that is going to be fought over so there will be pressure on them to make concessions.
What stance is the government taking on increasing the size of the army? Still hoping it won't be necessary, calling for volunteers or do they have a conscription system?
Marines are pretty good for what their trained for, especially amphibious assaults and operating small naval forces on shore or in river combats but they lack the heavy equipment and doctrine for a frontal land battle, especially a prolonged one. At least unless the attack is somewhere they can get naval gun support, which could be difficult I suspect. As such if their thrown into a big battle they could suffer badly, as will all forces unprepared for such conflicts, which other than to a limited degree the French and German armies after the clashes so far, is everybody else. Unless the Dutch have recent experience of such conflicts in their own world but it doesn't sound like it.
Two other points to consider.
a) OTL the Gallipoli campaign seems to have delayed the Bulgarian decision to join the CPs. Presuming something like that hasn't happened yet it could be that Bulgaria will make such a move earlier, which would be the end for Serbia as even if the Germans didn't get forces there it exposes the long Serbia eastern flank. This would free up Austrian forces for defence against Italy and Russia a bit earlier and also give an overland link between Turkey and the rest of the CPs.
b) What is the status of Scandinavia? OTL it weaved a nervous neutrality, trading with both sides and putting up with EP limitations on its imports to minimise what was passed onto Germany. The Dutch are an unknown factor and sound distinctly more aggressive on issues of total blockade so I wonder if there will be tension here and what the three Scandinavia states will do in response. Also too much pressure on them could upset Britain which also has trade with them. Its all a very messy situation and could go any number of ways.
Before I forget how are events in Ireland without the invasion of Belgium prompting British intervention in the war? Still a ticking time bomb or is the wider world crisis meaning both extremes are more willing to compromise. There were attempts that came close OTL and possibly that could happen here, although it would take years at least to get a wider degree of mutual respect between the two communities.
Anyway enough for now. Thanks again for the update.
Steve
There are going to be lots of reasons for a population drop, ranging from rather heavy casualties, a disrupted infrastructure, internal issues, and a few more fun things. The Dutch still have enough food for their own territories, mostly from Africa and South America. They however are suffering some issues with sending sufficient food to the bits of America they have now occupied. This means rationing, and that also has its very own issues. The US will naturally reject any and all overtures for peace, especially if it includes any reductions on them. At the same time, the Dutch can't let them off, especially not now they're busy burning the country to the ground. The command situation between the Dutch and French indeed is complicated, and there are lots of talks going on there. Both however really need each other. If the Germans can break through the Dutch, the French face a rather difficult situation there. At the same time, the Dutch can't do without French troops yet, especially with the distraction in North America (even if it is mostly being met with colonial troops). The Dutch government is doing everything it can to increase the size of the army, they have even gone as far as passing a law that allows for the recruitment of mixed-race soldiers for use overseas. They have also activated the conscription laws that they had for emergencies. Marines indeed are best for naval operations. At the time however, there is a need for trained troops. And those troops have to be found somewhere. Unfortunately, that's the kind of thing that can lead to troops being wasted in a role that doesn't fit them. There will soon be some big developments, but for now, Bulgaria remains neutral along with several other countries. In Scandinavia, there now is more pressure on Sweden and Norway. The Swedes haven't yet mined the Sound, because the German pressure hasn't worked its effect yet. There is a lot of insecurity there about the international situation, but for now, some kind of peace remains. Ireland is starting to catch fire, but the government is focusing on other things, like vital parts of the empire being gone and the world being on fire already.
Raunchel
Thanks for the clarifications.
Actually there would probably be room for the US POWs to be shipped out as they could go on the return link of ships bringing in men, supplies and equipment to the US. Although that does mean more organisation and also making sure there are supplies for them. As well as deciding where to put them and how to use/maintain them. Unless the Dutch are managing to load down those ships with some form of loot from the US?
Must admit I wouldn't have thought that those factors would be a major factor in causing a population drop in the US, unless it assumes 41-44 eastern front scale of fighting and possibly brutality for both sides. Or that there is a massive flight of people to escape the war, which could be a big boost to Canada, although many might return after the war unless things are still very bad.
Agree that I can't see a Dutch - US peace settlement any time soon as the two sides are so far apart and the drivers for each are probably increasing the gulf. Depending on how things go I wonder if the US might be even more isolationist after the war or looking for alliances and greater links with other people to provide allies?
Could be messy for a while in the Franco-Dutch alliance. It took until 1918 and the apparent crisis of the German spring offensives for a combined HQ and chain of command to be set up by the western allies. Here things might go a bit faster but may not other than both nations having their homeland directly threatened, which could also cause tensions, they have less in common than France had with Britain OTL.
When you say most of the troops being used in the US are colonial do you mean as in from the Dutch colonies - but still largely Dutch/white - or as in non-Dutch coloured/black and possibly Latino in origins?
Was hoping that the greater chaos might moderate feelings in Ireland.
I presume that the UK, possibly in some co-operation with Australia and New Zealand, are making plans for what they would need to do if a war with the Netherlands broke out. [Although it would be complicated at this point with the other war(s) going on. [Being on the same side as the US and Japan wouldn't be a great problem but as Germany and in opposition to France and Russia would potentially be awkward.] Thinking they would need plans to secure Britain and its supply routes, to try and blockade the Dutch and also protecting the surviving dominions and colonies. Including if its possible to defend Malaya - probably not - and how to secure especially Yemen [so Britain can link up with India and Australia] and probably also 'regain' Ceylon and Tasmania as well as also supporting Canada. Basically the appearance of the Dutch empire especially has really screwed Britain's SLOC on which so much depends. Not saying I'm expecting an early conflict but any sensible government must have plans and alternative plans for different possibilities and potential threats.
Steve
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However it doesn't sound like a good sign that peace is a concept its struggling with.
Also it does assume that women aren't "potentially hostile parts of the enemy population", which could be a mistake.
Apologies for the size of this post.
Have you tried the Turning test on it yet? 
