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Post by simon darkshade on Dec 17, 2018 23:20:14 GMT
For GDP information, look for the works of Angus Maddison; plenty of useful stuff in the horizontal file on his website. Populstat is reliable for historical populations. I have quite precise historical population data for South Africa in the early 1900s; from what I can deduce from your figures, the population there is larger tenfold or more. $514 billion and 240 million are very, very big numbers and it might be too high to even keep a veneer of realism. In South America, for example, Argentina and Brazil had 1914 GDPs of $26 billion and $18 billion, or 25% of the quoted figure of South American GDP. Even with increased population, that degree of growth is going to be difficult without a different world. If you cut the overall figures in half to $260-300 billion and 125-150 million, then that would be realistic and achievable. Using South American and West Indian bases to operate convoys from lessens the logistical challenges, but the majority of supplies would still have to come from the main industrial heartland. Getting the weekly ~50,000 tons of supplies needed for high tempo operations for a field army would burn through South American production very quickly and push their port capacity to the absolute maximum; there would need to be a continuous cycle of 4-5 convoy groups, each of which would need an escort of up to 10 destroyers and several cruisers, preferably along with a heavy cover force of dreadnoughts or predreadnoughts. That would draw a huge portion of WW1 level forces away from the main Dutch fleet, let alone other global operations. Thanks for the detailed reply and for the opportunity to talk logistics first thing in the morning.  |
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Dec 18, 2018 14:17:06 GMT
Paris, January 2, 1915Dearest father, I am truly happy that all of you are well and pray that that remains so. I celebrated the new year with the French president, a truly forceful man who seems to bear a deep hatred of the Germans. It seems that he was born in an area that the Germans have been occupying for decades now. Anyways, he was delighted when I told him about my meeting with the German emperor, and he said that he would certainly ask our government for my presence at the negotiating of the treaty that we’ll force the Germans to sign. He appeared full of confidence and the next day, he was happy to sign our alliance for the European war. Unfortunately, the French couldn’t be persuaded to join against the North Americans, but they have agreed to a complete trade embargo concerning our overseas enemies. It however seems that there are plenty of issues with the French. They are quite angry about our possession of the Kales area, which they claim to be part of their country. The French government currently isn’t aiming at gaining those territories, but I fear that in the long term, it will lead to issues. We simply can’t trust our new allies. I however heard something else that truly shocked me. When speaking to a French general, I found that hundreds of thousands of French soldiers have already died, with many more wounded or missing. To my surprise, he didn’t seem shaken by this, only emboldened. He even claimed that they would soon enough force the Germans back. He however was a little surprised when I told him what the German emperor had told me, but soon enough, countered that the Germans obviously were lying to make themself seem stronger. Despite all of this, I have also had the opportunity to explore the city of Paris. It truly is one of the most beautiful places I have ever visited, far eclipsing Berlin and even many of our own cities. My guide here is a young lady, Lilianne, the daughter of a senior official of the French foreign service. She has shown me the city, we visited the museums and some of their grandest monuments together. She told me some pretty shocking things. She herself doesn’t believe in God at all, but far more shocking is that their own president is a secret Catholic! He apparently married his wife in secret, but, of course, it came out. Earlier today, instructions from The Hague arrived. They ask me to attend a meeting there on the sixth, and I will be leaving Paris soon. I will travel past Antwerpen, and hope to be able to see you or Mother there. There is so much that I have to tell you, and, perhaps more importantly, I truly long to be with our family. Your loving daughter, Jakoba Battlecruiser Vlijt, January 9, 1915Dearest Jakoba, I am truly sorry that I couldn’t be there when you visited your mother in Antwerpen. Duty called me to sea. Enemy warships had been sighted leaving port at night, and I moved to intercept them. We fought a minor engagement. It appeared that the enemy battlefleet had sortied in an attempt to bombard Borkum to allow it to be retaken. I believe that they seek to strengthen their flank as our army has taken Aurich and pushed all the way north to Norden. I encountered the enemy fleet north of Norderney and at long range, opened fire. Naturally, I did not close on the enemy, which had superior numbers and armour. To my surprise, they turned back despite having numbers on their side. On our side, a single destroyer was damaged but at least one of their battleships has been hit, although I don’t know about any damage. Of course, I shadowed their fleet, but was forced to turn away by an attack from their destroyers of which two were sunk. I remained at sea for several more days, mostly to prevent another such attack while marines took Juist in order to further secure the Ems. I presume that you have been told about our army in the Americas having forced the Bolivians to surrender, and have now taken a city named Baltimore and have started the attack on the enemy capital. If that has been taken, they are bound to give up the war. I pray that you will be allowed to return to us and I asked your mother to send you this letter as soon as she has an address where she can reach you. Your loving father, Johan Rots
Raunchel
Some interesting nuggets here. The fact that the continentals on our world are used to much larger losses than the Dutch are and the deep divisions between Catholic and secular groups in France, neither for different reasons being that likely to be popular with the Dutch.
Not surprised that the French refused to go to war with the US. Even if they did their present commitment would mean it was only a token action as the US no longer has the forces to threaten French possessions in the Americas - which looking again at the map are already in Dutch hands I think apart from the two islands off Newfoundland and the French are fully committed against the Germans so I don't think the Dutch are losing anything at the moment.
If the alliance works I don't think they need fear too much from the French about Calais/Kales as they will be too exhausted by the war and also will have time to accept that the people in the region have been Dutch for probably a few centuries and think of themselves as such.
Didn't realise they were at war with Bolivia as well as Chile but the former has always been rather a weak military power, being heavily defeated in OTL by Chile - even when allied with Peru and in the 1930's by Paraguay. The US will fight hard for Washington but I doubt they will agree to a cease-fire when it falls, at least not at anything like the terms the Dutch will be proposing. I wonder where they will move their capital to? Somewhere more central, say along the Mississippi or north of the Ohio would probably be more secure but could go even further west.
Not surprised the Germans turned away even if they thought they might have superior numbers. They know their own fleet is smaller and also less lightly armed although whether the Dutch have any of the problems Britain had with shells, powder instability and bad practice on removing flash protection devices, or other shortcomings to counter this I don't know. However they can't really afford to lose too much especially since they have to consider the French and Russian fleets as well.
Steve
PS Just seen the last part of this ninjed by your last post.  The European powers were more used to casualties, especially after the first extremely bloody months of the war. The Dutch still have to experience that, and it will come at a cost. Both groups in France are seen as less reliable than they could be, but the Republicans are better, they might be secular, but they're not catholics! Those people really can't be trusted because they serve the interests of the pope/Spain/their international secret conspiracy/lizardpeople/whatever. It's bad, okay. The French aren't completely crazy. They don't need another war and besides, they don't have any reason to go to war with the Americans. They don't really have lots of bases anymore, although the Dutch are of course pressuring them to gain the use of the nearby islands to help with their blockade. The whole French empire boycotting the USA however is something that will have some kind of impact. There also was a war with Bolivia, but that was mostly about large parts of the country suddenly being Dutch. As soon as they had dealt with the more important and powerful Chile, the Dutch moved on to basically send a column there to force them into a peace. The USA indeed is fighting hard for Washington. They really can't afford to give up the city without a fight. I'm still thinking about where they could move the capital, but I'm assuming somewhere away from the fighting (and the coast), but not too far to not seem cowardly. I mean, moving all the way to Montana or the like won't resonate well with the people. I'm currently thinking about a place like Atlanta, Nashville, or Chicago. Too far south also isn't entirely safe due to the war with Mexico and the withdrawal of most decent units from there to either train new ones or be sent right into Dutch artillery and machine guns. The Germans weren't crazy or stupid. They didn't know how strong the Dutch fleet was. Sure, they saw the battlecruiser force, but for all they knew, the whole battlefleet was close behind it. And the Germans always tried to conserve their strength. The Dutch have some flaws, but they won't become visible until later on. The thing is, the Germans think that the Dutch Home Fleet is close behind, and they don't want to risk losing their whole fleet. So no Battle of Jutland type engagement for now between the Germans and the Republic. Not yet, the Germans aren't going to risk such a thing right away, even though the Dutch really want one. They have to eliminate the German fleet so they can focus on those dastardly Englishmen. They're mostly running it from South America and bases in the Carribean. They have the good fortune of holding the port of New York, and these Dutch have a bit of a tradition of expeditionary forces. Further expansion of their forces there however will take more time. But, they have an army there, and it should be enough to finally get the Americans to give in. Any day now... It is important to keep in mind that the majority of the Dutch population actually lives overseas, with a total of some 66 million (Yes, there has been a lot of immigration/remigration and shuffling up of genealogies to make white people 'Dutch'. There also are some 82 million Asians, 44 million Blacks, 3 million Arabs and the like of various kinds, 7 million native Americans, 3 million Catholics (including Orthodox), 750k Pacific islanders, 2 million Jews, and almost 30 million Coloureds (mixed race of partial white descent). I made a simple list to keep track of the population per area, using the categories that the Republic would use. This gives a total population of roughly 243 million. I find it hard to determine a good GDP, especially for the empires (any help of course is welcome). So, I used a list of GDPs per capita to determine the GDP per population group per area. Basically, the foremost economic area consists of the South American provinces ($ 178 bln), especially because of the large Dutch population combined with the pretty big nonwhite groups. Next comes the Continental Netherlands ($ 145 bln), and then of course the colonies and South Africa. The total GDP of the Dutch empire is something like 514 billion. They can take on the Americans more or less (slightly lower GDP, but they did deliver a pretty serious blow to the US). But not when they also have to fight anyone else. They have also not invested enough in the army to be able to fight the Germans on their own (and basically, wasted a lot of money building Johan's fancy battleships). The heavy units were concentrated in Europa because that's where they were vulnerable to attempts at blockade and the like. Elsewhere, the fleet is a bit lighter, so to say. The Americans can indeed produce sickening amounts of materials, but their issue is that that takes time. In the long run however, that will lead to a lot of fun.
Raunchel
OK thanks that gives a better idea of what the empire contains. Probably I've got it wrong but I make it ~238 million on those figure? Tried adding it up several times but can't see anything I'm missing. Just to clarify the 66M Dutch include those in the Netherlands itself? If so roughly how many are there please? Also you mention both Catholics and native Americans and I assume that the non-Dutch in S America were at one stage at least partially Catholic because of Spanish and Portuguese rule but have most of them been converted to Calvinism?
Of those figures presumably the Dutch and the Coloureds are available for military use, along with possibly some of the other groups as local militia or in rare occasions elsewhere. That gives nearly 100M along with possibly the Jews and Catholics which would push it just over that figure. That's a hell of a lot of potential manpower but its spread about a fair bit and not sure how loyal/trusted the coloureds might be in all cases if their still denied full equality. Plus while their in a much better position than the US, even without them being invaded, they have a markedly smaller military I suspect probably more like Britain's so it would take time to fully moblise this.
Overall a potential super-power, and pretty much one in naval terms but could take some effort to get it fully moblised if the society isn't used to that? Plus there is always the situation of do any of the overseas Dutch see themselves as more S Americans or Africans than Dutch Europeans? Basically like the British dominions looking to increase their self-government from the homeland? Possibly less so as they have direct representation in the 'imperial' parliament.
Working from the Caribbean and S America will be a lot easier than working from Europe to supply the forces in the US but its still going to be a significant commitment although with its world wide empire the Netherlands, like Britain OTL has a good degree of experience in this. Possibly an equivalent of the 2nd Boer War for Britain, although without the significant population in the Boer states that would welcome the British.
You mention that the Dutch have New York and other ports, but factors here could depend on what condition its in and how helpful or not the local population are in handling the port and other local facilities for transporting and storing supplies and equipment. Especially on the railways you could see some sabotage, either physical or even by mis-direction to hinder supply movement as well as the need to capture, maintain and use trains, carriages, tracks etc. Not going to be a killer but expecting some friction here.
Sorry to ask so many questions but a fascinating TL.
Steve
The numbers don't add up completely because I did some rounding because of the smaller territories and the like adding tens or hundreds of thousands. The non-Dutch in South America indeed used to be mostly catholic, but a lot of effort has been put into efforts at conversion. Some of the coloureds and the like also remain Catholics, but they only really count white Catholics for obvious reasons. Mostly because I didn't want to count twice. For now, only the Dutch, the Jews are fully available. There also are select other peoples from which regiments are recruited, more in the colonial forces and of the 'warrior races'. The coloureds also aren't fully trusted, and there is a tendency to keep them out of the most developed areas. The issues with developed areas wanting independence are channeled by giving them full representation in the republic and elevating some of them to the status of provinces. This has also led to some of the most important provinces being overseas. There are some thirty million people living in the European Netherlands, which indeed is a huge lot. This is a heavily urbanised industrial powerhouse with some pretty severe issues in terms of agriculture, pollution, and all those other fun things. They used to partially depend on the countries just across the border to basically supply them with food and a general hinterland, but that's gone now which is leading to quite some difficulties. The American campaign is very difficult right now. Fortunately for the Dutch, they managed to capture a reasonably intact rail network and perhaps more importantly, one that was quite well-developed. Perhaps not to European standards, but it certainly was better than it is now. They for a short war there, so the infrastructure is being protected, but they're not doing things like retooling it for their needs. There indeed are issues with resistance, which are being dealt with. Perhaps not always in the best possible manner. And seriously, don't worry about asking questions. It's good to keep me thinking. For GDP information, look for the works of Angus Maddison; plenty of useful stuff in the horizontal file on his website. Populstat is reliable for historical populations. I have quite precise historical population data for South Africa in the early 1900s; from what I can deduce from your figures, the population there is larger tenfold or more. $514 billion and 240 million are very, very big numbers and it might be too high to even keep a veneer of realism. In South America, for example, Argentina and Brazil had 1914 GDPs of $26 billion and $18 billion, or 25% of the quoted figure of South American GDP. Even with increased population, that degree of growth is going to be difficult without a different world. If you cut the overall figures in half to $260-300 billion and 125-150 million, then that would be realistic and achievable. Using South American and West Indian bases to operate convoys from lessens the logistical challenges, but the majority of supplies would still have to come from the main industrial heartland. Getting the weekly ~50,000 tons of supplies needed for high tempo operations for a field army would burn through South American production very quickly and push their port capacity to the absolute maximum; there would need to be a continuous cycle of 4-5 convoy groups, each of which would need an escort of up to 10 destroyers and several cruisers, preferably along with a heavy cover force of dreadnoughts or predreadnoughts. That would draw a huge portion of WW1 level forces away from the main Dutch fleet, let alone other global operations. Thanks for the detailed reply and for the opportunity to talk logistics first thing in the morning. I will certainly take a look there. This South America is far more developed than it was in our world, more to the level of otl North America. Mostly because I wanted to make it a truly major power, and that is an area that has been seriously underdeveloped for a very long time. So, I decided to really boost it. This also gives the ability to supply the North American operation until more important duties arise. These forces are drawn from the South American fleet along with elements of the South African one. The European fleet remains mostly intact and is itching for a fight that won't come too quickly. The convoy escorts mostly consist of destroyers and cruisers, and usually at least a single predreadnought battleship. Added to that are roving patrols (that also accompany the convoys) of pairs of dreadnoughts from Wolters' fleet. He no longer has to worry over larger amounts of American heavy units and believes that if it comes to a fight with equal numbers, Dutch superior gunnery, seamanship, and light units will save the day. There aren't as many bombardment raids anymore, especially on the East Coast, and the Dutch ships mostly busy themselves with either being in port, supporting the army, and these convoy duties. Of course, further at sea, cruisers and the like are very active indeed. And one last thing: my spell checker for some reason no longer accepts the word 'peace', I wonder what this means. |
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Dec 18, 2018 14:17:55 GMT
Den Haag, January 10, 1914
Dear father,
I am so very sorry for having missed you in Antwerpen, although, when I was in The Hague, I did hear about your action on our northern shores, and am truly proud of how you defend our fatherland and take the war to our enemies.
Fortunately, I was able to meet with Mother, as she doubtlessly told you, and could stay with her for a day. Only when I came there did I find out how much I had missed her, and I struggled to not part from her in tears. Her health seemed to be fine, and she took what I told her of her brother’s loss with the dignity that is to be expected of a woman like her. This dignity made me immensely proud to be her daughter and I aspire to be more like her.
Unfortunately, duty called upon me, and I continued to The Hague for four days of meetings. I was received by the pensionary of foreign affairs, who questioned me about what happened in Germany, and the nature of our diplomatic contacts there. He particularly asked about the ceasefire with the Japanese, that appears to have fallen through now that we are at war with Germany. We also discussed how we could resolve our situation with the Germans, and my perception of other powers.
From there, we moved to our recent allies. He revealed that he believes that none of our new allies can be trusted, and asked me about my perception of those people I missed there. He pointed out that our allies basically all were Catholics, and for that alone were untrustworthy. I however did point out that they were bound to us by need for now, and that we couldn’t stand alone given the difficult position.
I spent the evening with my dear friend Trui. She is expecting her first child, but she is worried for her husband who has been called to war and has taken up a small command on the German front. She was worried about the war, but remained confident in speedy victory.
On the second day, I was asked to speak before a committee of Deputies, and have to confess that I was quite nervous. They questioned me about the embassy’s conduct, and about the idea of a treaty with the Japanese. I explained that our efforts were based on starting a ceasefire, in order to secure the return of our civilians from enemy hands.
One deputy from Nieuw-Vlaanderen was quite critical of this Japanese ceasefire, and I have to admit that his conduct cowed me. I however could steel myself, thinking of those poor people in the hands of the yellow barbarians, and defended this plan. It seems that many of the newspapers are opposed, as is much of popular opinion, but I believe that we can make some sort of ceasefire there in order to deal with our more immediate enemies.
Finally, the decision was reached to ask me to found a Committee for the Establishment of Peace, and to become the head regentess of this committee. Naturally, I am lacking in formal powers, but I will act as a liaison between our government and the powers with which we are at war. I have been given permission to travel to London, where I can meet with their representatives and hopefully negotiate.
During my stay, I heard several very interesting things. Our army seems to have pierced North American fortifications surrounding their capital both on the east and the north. As a less relevant aside, have taken their naval academy despite the defense by its cadets. It also appears that their president has been assassinated, but it’s unknown who did it and who is taking over.
I have also been told that the enemy is severely lacking in armaments, but there are significant issues with the local population resisting. In response to this, general Bussenmaeckers has been given permission to use the same methods that were used in repressing the Carribean Revolt. He is permitting women and children to leave freely, but all men of military age are to be controlled, and any potentially dangerous elements are to be imprisoned to prevent further unlawful violence.
One representative I spoke to said that these men could perhaps be used for the major construction works in our overseas territories, although others disagree because of the immorality of forcing white men to labour.
It however seems that soon enough, a law will be passed that will allow for the recruitment of coloureds into the army and even to give them a partial vote. There still is a lot of discussion about it, but the basic idea is to give them a fifth of a vote each, without the ability to gain multiple votes for having families or paying higher taxes. There also is a plan to start the recruitment of openly catholic units, but given their difficult loyalty, that remains difficult. Although I was told that some believe that they deserve equal rights to other whites, just like the Jews.
Other than on learning these little things, I spent the rest of my time in preparing for this task, and ensuring that I would have the support of our ambassador in London and secure communications with The Hague. I fortunately had the opportunity to say goodbye to several dear friends, and now I will be departing to further uncertainties. I pray that peace may return to the world.
Your loving daughter,
Jakoba
Antwerpen, January 16, 1914
Dearest Jakoba,
It has taken me some time to be able to write you, but I have returned to port where some of my ships are getting some rest from the intense operations. I am pleased to say that ships under my command have sunk multiple German warships and have taken many prizes.
The offensive in the north appears to have stalled despite our actions. The Germans have placed many more mines and it seems that large numbers of troops have been brought to the front there. This however has weakened the push against Luik and it now looks like the fortress will be able to be held.
I am truly shocked that coloureds will be recruited into the army. I am aware that there is a need for manpower, and this will allow for the recruitment of at least two million more soldiers. It however does worry me, they will demand more rights soon enough, and that will be the end of us. Giving them the vote, even if only in part, is pure insanity.
It fills me with both pride and sorrow that you have to be given the tasks that have been thrust upon you. I wish that you could live a more content life, at home, hopefully surrounded by your children. This however is a difficult time for our nation, so I understand that this call has been made on you.
That the Caribbean methods are to be used is a good sign. It means that our government is taking things seriously and is doing its utmost to avoid unnecessary suffering by putting the potentially hostile parts of the enemy population into camps where they can be controlled. I however fear that this will eat up more manpower, and our supplies have to come a long way already.
Which in turn brings me to other news. Hendrik has written us that he is doing well and has been given a promotion. He did suffer a minor injury, but that’s nothing to worry about. It’s mere proof that he is a true brave man and a son to be proud of, despite being in the army.
Johannes is doing well at the Naval Academy, but he appears to have been caught by a strange desire. In his spare time, he has started learning to fly an aeroplane. Of course, given that our enemies are using armed aerial vehicles this will become more important, but for his further career, it would be better to aim for an assignment to the heart of our fleet.
Naturally, I pray for your continued success and safety in this difficult time.
Your loving father,
Johan Rots
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Post by eurowatch on Dec 18, 2018 15:24:24 GMT
One Thing I worry about is how the next war is going to develop. The Americans are not going to take to forgive the Dutch for invading and occupying New York and Washington and are not going to consider the war over until they have managed to occupy the Dutch heartland, lack of navy be damnded.
So it is very possible that the US Will use the next twenty years to prepare for the next war under a leader With near dictator levels of power.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 18, 2018 15:28:01 GMT
One Thing I worry about is how the next war is going to develop. The Americans are not going to take to forgive the Dutch for invading and occupying New York and Washington and are not going to consider the war over until they have managed to occupy the Dutch heartland, lack of navy be damnded. So it is very possible that the US Will use the next twenty years to prepare for the next war under a leader With near dictator levels of power. You mean making the United States this version of Weimar Germany and the corporal who we all know took over the place and whith it brought destruction upon the world. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 18, 2018 15:28:59 GMT
Raunchel
Some interesting nuggets here. The fact that the continentals on our world are used to much larger losses than the Dutch are and the deep divisions between Catholic and secular groups in France, neither for different reasons being that likely to be popular with the Dutch.
Not surprised that the French refused to go to war with the US. Even if they did their present commitment would mean it was only a token action as the US no longer has the forces to threaten French possessions in the Americas - which looking again at the map are already in Dutch hands I think apart from the two islands off Newfoundland and the French are fully committed against the Germans so I don't think the Dutch are losing anything at the moment.
If the alliance works I don't think they need fear too much from the French about Calais/Kales as they will be too exhausted by the war and also will have time to accept that the people in the region have been Dutch for probably a few centuries and think of themselves as such.
Didn't realise they were at war with Bolivia as well as Chile but the former has always been rather a weak military power, being heavily defeated in OTL by Chile - even when allied with Peru and in the 1930's by Paraguay. The US will fight hard for Washington but I doubt they will agree to a cease-fire when it falls, at least not at anything like the terms the Dutch will be proposing. I wonder where they will move their capital to? Somewhere more central, say along the Mississippi or north of the Ohio would probably be more secure but could go even further west.
Not surprised the Germans turned away even if they thought they might have superior numbers. They know their own fleet is smaller and also less lightly armed although whether the Dutch have any of the problems Britain had with shells, powder instability and bad practice on removing flash protection devices, or other shortcomings to counter this I don't know. However they can't really afford to lose too much especially since they have to consider the French and Russian fleets as well.
Steve
PS Just seen the last part of this ninjed by your last post. The European powers were more used to casualties, especially after the first extremely bloody months of the war. The Dutch still have to experience that, and it will come at a cost. Both groups in France are seen as less reliable than they could be, but the Republicans are better, they might be secular, but they're not catholics! Those people really can't be trusted because they serve the interests of the pope/Spain/their international secret conspiracy/lizardpeople/whatever. It's bad, okay. The French aren't completely crazy. They don't need another war and besides, they don't have any reason to go to war with the Americans. They don't really have lots of bases anymore, although the Dutch are of course pressuring them to gain the use of the nearby islands to help with their blockade. The whole French empire boycotting the USA however is something that will have some kind of impact. There also was a war with Bolivia, but that was mostly about large parts of the country suddenly being Dutch. As soon as they had dealt with the more important and powerful Chile, the Dutch moved on to basically send a column there to force them into a peace. The USA indeed is fighting hard for Washington. They really can't afford to give up the city without a fight. I'm still thinking about where they could move the capital, but I'm assuming somewhere away from the fighting (and the coast), but not too far to not seem cowardly. I mean, moving all the way to Montana or the like won't resonate well with the people. I'm currently thinking about a place like Atlanta, Nashville, or Chicago. Too far south also isn't entirely safe due to the war with Mexico and the withdrawal of most decent units from there to either train new ones or be sent right into Dutch artillery and machine guns. The Germans weren't crazy or stupid. They didn't know how strong the Dutch fleet was. Sure, they saw the battlecruiser force, but for all they knew, the whole battlefleet was close behind it. And the Germans always tried to conserve their strength. The Dutch have some flaws, but they won't become visible until later on. So no Battle of Jutland type engagement for now between the Germans and the Republic. Not yet, the Germans aren't going to risk such a thing right away, even though the Dutch really want one. They have to eliminate the German fleet so they can focus on those dastardly Englishmen.
Raunchel
OK thanks that gives a better idea of what the empire contains. Probably I've got it wrong but I make it ~238 million on those figure? Tried adding it up several times but can't see anything I'm missing. Just to clarify the 66M Dutch include those in the Netherlands itself? If so roughly how many are there please? Also you mention both Catholics and native Americans and I assume that the non-Dutch in S America were at one stage at least partially Catholic because of Spanish and Portuguese rule but have most of them been converted to Calvinism?
Of those figures presumably the Dutch and the Coloureds are available for military use, along with possibly some of the other groups as local militia or in rare occasions elsewhere. That gives nearly 100M along with possibly the Jews and Catholics which would push it just over that figure. That's a hell of a lot of potential manpower but its spread about a fair bit and not sure how loyal/trusted the coloureds might be in all cases if their still denied full equality. Plus while their in a much better position than the US, even without them being invaded, they have a markedly smaller military I suspect probably more like Britain's so it would take time to fully moblise this.
Overall a potential super-power, and pretty much one in naval terms but could take some effort to get it fully moblised if the society isn't used to that? Plus there is always the situation of do any of the overseas Dutch see themselves as more S Americans or Africans than Dutch Europeans? Basically like the British dominions looking to increase their self-government from the homeland? Possibly less so as they have direct representation in the 'imperial' parliament.
Working from the Caribbean and S America will be a lot easier than working from Europe to supply the forces in the US but its still going to be a significant commitment although with its world wide empire the Netherlands, like Britain OTL has a good degree of experience in this. Possibly an equivalent of the 2nd Boer War for Britain, although without the significant population in the Boer states that would welcome the British.
You mention that the Dutch have New York and other ports, but factors here could depend on what condition its in and how helpful or not the local population are in handling the port and other local facilities for transporting and storing supplies and equipment. Especially on the railways you could see some sabotage, either physical or even by mis-direction to hinder supply movement as well as the need to capture, maintain and use trains, carriages, tracks etc. Not going to be a killer but expecting some friction here.
Sorry to ask so many questions but a fascinating TL.
Steve
The numbers don't add up completely because I did some rounding because of the smaller territories and the like adding tens or hundreds of thousands. The non-Dutch in South America indeed used to be mostly catholic, but a lot of effort has been put into efforts at conversion. Some of the coloureds and the like also remain Catholics, but they only really count white Catholics for obvious reasons. Mostly because I didn't want to count twice. For now, only the Dutch, the Jews are fully available. There also are select other peoples from which regiments are recruited, more in the colonial forces and of the 'warrior races'. The coloureds also aren't fully trusted, and there is a tendency to keep them out of the most developed areas. The issues with developed areas wanting independence are channeled by giving them full representation in the republic and elevating some of them to the status of provinces. This has also led to some of the most important provinces being overseas. There are some thirty million people living in the European Netherlands, which indeed is a huge lot. This is a heavily urbanised industrial powerhouse with some pretty severe issues in terms of agriculture, pollution, and all those other fun things. They used to partially depend on the countries just across the border to basically supply them with food and a general hinterland, but that's gone now which is leading to quite some difficulties. The American campaign is very difficult right now. Fortunately for the Dutch, they managed to capture a reasonably intact rail network and perhaps more importantly, one that was quite well-developed. Perhaps not to European standards, but it certainly was better than it is now. They for a short war there, so the infrastructure is being protected, but they're not doing things like retooling it for their needs. There indeed are issues with resistance, which are being dealt with. Perhaps not always in the best possible manner. And seriously, don't worry about asking questions. It's good to keep me thinking. For GDP information, look for the works of Angus Maddison; plenty of useful stuff in the horizontal file on his website. Populstat is reliable for historical populations. I have quite precise historical population data for South Africa in the early 1900s; from what I can deduce from your figures, the population there is larger tenfold or more. $514 billion and 240 million are very, very big numbers and it might be too high to even keep a veneer of realism. In South America, for example, Argentina and Brazil had 1914 GDPs of $26 billion and $18 billion, or 25% of the quoted figure of South American GDP. Even with increased population, that degree of growth is going to be difficult without a different world. If you cut the overall figures in half to $260-300 billion and 125-150 million, then that would be realistic and achievable. Using South American and West Indian bases to operate convoys from lessens the logistical challenges, but the majority of supplies would still have to come from the main industrial heartland. Getting the weekly ~50,000 tons of supplies needed for high tempo operations for a field army would burn through South American production very quickly and push their port capacity to the absolute maximum; there would need to be a continuous cycle of 4-5 convoy groups, each of which would need an escort of up to 10 destroyers and several cruisers, preferably along with a heavy cover force of dreadnoughts or predreadnoughts. That would draw a huge portion of WW1 level forces away from the main Dutch fleet, let alone other global operations. Thanks for the detailed reply and for the opportunity to talk logistics first thing in the morning. I will certainly take a look there. This South America is far more developed than it was in our world, more to the level of otl North America. Mostly because I wanted to make it a truly major power, and that is an area that has been seriously underdeveloped for a very long time. So, I decided to really boost it. This also gives the ability to supply the North American operation until more important duties arise. These forces are drawn from the South American fleet along with elements of the South African one. The European fleet remains mostly intact and is itching for a fight that won't come too quickly. The convoy escorts mostly consist of destroyers and cruisers, and usually at least a single predreadnought battleship. Added to that are roving patrols (that also accompany the convoys) of pairs of dreadnoughts from Wolters' fleet. He no longer has to worry over larger amounts of American heavy units and believes that if it comes to a fight with equal numbers, Dutch superior gunnery, seamanship, and light units will save the day. There aren't as many bombardment raids anymore, especially on the East Coast, and the Dutch ships mostly busy themselves with either being in port, supporting the army, and these convoy duties. Of course, further at sea, cruisers and the like are very active indeed. And one last thing: my spell checker for some reason no longer accepts the word 'peace', I wonder what this means.
Raunchel
Of those options I suspect Chicago might be the best. Its deep in the industrial heartland and also near Canada and hence contact with the outside world that the Dutch can't easily block. [Could end up with a Trent types incident here if there was an attempt to take diplomats off a British ship - see Trent_Affair, if your not familiar with it. Actually there is the possibility as well, given their knowledge of the affair that someone could try and set something up like that, which could have some nasty consequences.
So Jakoba is as hostile to Catholics as her father. I thought she might be more tolerant, or is this just her fitting in?
If currently only the Dutch and the Jews could be used effectively then that significantly reduces the force pool available, plus with such feeling and large numbers of non-citizens in S Africa and the DEIs especially I suspect that they will also want to keep significant 'Dutch' forces back to protect those regions against both attack and also possible internal unrest. They still have significant forces to throw into the battle against Germany and with their industrial resources as well and the fleet its a significant force for the EP, even without their distractions elsewhere. Probably not as great as Britain OTL because we had less distractions and were more willing to make use of 'native' forces.
It does sound like Dutch S Africa sounds rather like OTL S Africa under apartheid and presumably there are some other elements in S America including former slaves who might be discontent but probably a lot more stable than S Africa. However would expect unrest here only if the war is prolonged and starts going badly for the Dutch or they seriously upset the Coloureds.
One thing I forgot to say with regards to air warfare, which will be going on in Europe as well as the US is that the ability for any sort of ground attack is minimal at the moment. Most a/c are so fragile and under-powered that they can't carry much in the way of weapons and early in the war pilots were taking up pistols to fire at opponents and probably wouldn't have anything heavier than a few grenades to throw against targets on the ground. Of course things started developing rapidly and I'm just think where a Mr Fokker stands currently - see Anthony_Fokker. He's only moved to Germany permanently a couple of years before and could both have divided loyalties - although its not strictly speaking his Netherlands - and also there could be some mistrust of him by Germany under those circumstances. However if Germany effectively loses him it will hurt them a bit, although other manufacturers and members of his company would probably take up most of the slack.
Spell-checkers are always to be treated with cautious. The one I have hear tries to mis-spell everything into American.  However it doesn't sound like a good sign that peace is a concept its struggling with.
Steve
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Post by eurowatch on Dec 18, 2018 15:37:01 GMT
One Thing I worry about is how the next war is going to develop. The Americans are not going to take to forgive the Dutch for invading and occupying New York and Washington and are not going to consider the war over until they have managed to occupy the Dutch heartland, lack of navy be damnded. So it is very possible that the US Will use the next twenty years to prepare for the next war under a leader With near dictator levels of power. You mean making the United States this version of Weimar Germany and the corporal who we all know took over the place and whith it brought destruction upon the world. I mean that it is a distinct possibility that the United States ends up With a similar mindset at least, that they could have won the war if they just kept going instead of the government signing a peace treaty. The certain private (in OTL he was never a corporal, that was just something the WAllies came up With to mock him) won't travel to America he considered himself throughly German (Austrian accent be Damned). And who knows where Raunchel takes this TL? Maybe the Germans Will consider themselves beaten fair and square and have little interest in another war? Maybe the Dutch Will be more willing to ignore Japanese attrocities in China and there won't be an embargo that leads to a Pacific war? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 18, 2018 15:51:25 GMT
Den Haag, January 10, 1914Dear father, I am so very sorry for having missed you in Antwerpen, although, when I was in The Hague, I did hear about your action on our northern shores, and am truly proud of how you defend our fatherland and take the war to our enemies. Fortunately, I was able to meet with Mother, as she doubtlessly told you, and could stay with her for a day. Only when I came there did I find out how much I had missed her, and I struggled to not part from her in tears. Her health seemed to be fine, and she took what I told her of her brother’s loss with the dignity that is to be expected of a woman like her. This dignity made me immensely proud to be her daughter and I aspire to be more like her. Unfortunately, duty called upon me, and I continued to The Hague for four days of meetings. I was received by the pensionary of foreign affairs, who questioned me about what happened in Germany, and the nature of our diplomatic contacts there. He particularly asked about the ceasefire with the Japanese, that appears to have fallen through now that we are at war with Germany. We also discussed how we could resolve our situation with the Germans, and my perception of other powers. From there, we moved to our recent allies. He revealed that he believes that none of our new allies can be trusted, and asked me about my perception of those people I missed there. He pointed out that our allies basically all were Catholics, and for that alone were untrustworthy. I however did point out that they were bound to us by need for now, and that we couldn’t stand alone given the difficult position. I spent the evening with my dear friend Trui. She is expecting her first child, but she is worried for her husband who has been called to war and has taken up a small command on the German front. She was worried about the war, but remained confident in speedy victory. On the second day, I was asked to speak before a committee of Deputies, and have to confess that I was quite nervous. They questioned me about the embassy’s conduct, and about the idea of a treaty with the Japanese. I explained that our efforts were based on starting a ceasefire, in order to secure the return of our civilians from enemy hands. One deputy from Nieuw-Vlaanderen was quite critical of this Japanese ceasefire, and I have to admit that his conduct cowed me. I however could steel myself, thinking of those poor people in the hands of the yellow barbarians, and defended this plan. It seems that many of the newspapers are opposed, as is much of popular opinion, but I believe that we can make some sort of ceasefire there in order to deal with our more immediate enemies. Finally, the decision was reached to ask me to found a Committee for the Establishment of Peace, and to become the head regentess of this committee. Naturally, I am lacking in formal powers, but I will act as a liaison between our government and the powers with which we are at war. I have been given permission to travel to London, where I can meet with their representatives and hopefully negotiate. During my stay, I heard several very interesting things. Our army seems to have pierced North American fortifications surrounding their capital both on the east and the north. As a less relevant aside, have taken their naval academy despite the defense by its cadets. It also appears that their president has been assassinated, but it’s unknown who did it and who is taking over. I have also been told that the enemy is severely lacking in armaments, but there are significant issues with the local population resisting. In response to this, general Bussenmaeckers has been given permission to use the same methods that were used in repressing the Carribean Revolt. He is permitting women and children to leave freely, but all men of military age are to be controlled, and any potentially dangerous elements are to be imprisoned to prevent further unlawful violence. One representative I spoke to said that these men could perhaps be used for the major construction works in our overseas territories, although others disagree because of the immorality of forcing white men to labour. It however seems that soon enough, a law will be passed that will allow for the recruitment of coloureds into the army and even to give them a partial vote. There still is a lot of discussion about it, but the basic idea is to give them a fifth of a vote each, without the ability to gain multiple votes for having families or paying higher taxes. There also is a plan to start the recruitment of openly catholic units, but given their difficult loyalty, that remains difficult. Although I was told that some believe that they deserve equal rights to other whites, just like the Jews. Other than on learning these little things, I spent the rest of my time in preparing for this task, and ensuring that I would have the support of our ambassador in London and secure communications with The Hague. I fortunately had the opportunity to say goodbye to several dear friends, and now I will be departing to further uncertainties. I pray that peace may return to the world. Your loving daughter, Jakoba Antwerpen, January 16, 1914Dearest Jakoba, It has taken me some time to be able to write you, but I have returned to port where some of my ships are getting some rest from the intense operations. I am pleased to say that ships under my command have sunk multiple German warships and have taken many prizes. The offensive in the north appears to have stalled despite our actions. The Germans have placed many more mines and it seems that large numbers of troops have been brought to the front there. This however has weakened the push against Luik and it now looks like the fortress will be able to be held. I am truly shocked that coloureds will be recruited into the army. I am aware that there is a need for manpower, and this will allow for the recruitment of at least two million more soldiers. It however does worry me, they will demand more rights soon enough, and that will be the end of us. Giving them the vote, even if only in part, is pure insanity. It fills me with both pride and sorrow that you have to be given the tasks that have been thrust upon you. I wish that you could live a more content life, at home, hopefully surrounded by your children. This however is a difficult time for our nation, so I understand that this call has been made on you. That the Caribbean methods are to be used is a good sign. It means that our government is taking things seriously and is doing its utmost to avoid unnecessary suffering by putting the potentially hostile parts of the enemy population into camps where they can be controlled. I however fear that this will eat up more manpower, and our supplies have to come a long way already. Which in turn brings me to other news. Hendrik has written us that he is doing well and has been given a promotion. He did suffer a minor injury, but that’s nothing to worry about. It’s mere proof that he is a true brave man and a son to be proud of, despite being in the army. Johannes is doing well at the Naval Academy, but he appears to have been caught by a strange desire. In his spare time, he has started learning to fly an aeroplane. Of course, given that our enemies are using armed aerial vehicles this will become more important, but for his further career, it would be better to aim for an assignment to the heart of our fleet. Naturally, I pray for your continued success and safety in this difficult time. Your loving father, Johan Rots
Raunchel
Interesting that Jokaba is going to be visiting London rather back to Paris as as I would expect that the Americans and Japanese would have diplomatic representation there its unlikely the French would give that up unless they actually went to war with them. However it does give a chance to see how things are developing in the British empire and how their reacting to all those events. Be interesting if she meets any of the Pankhurst's while she's there.
Also that while Jokaba is the formal head of this new committee she doesn't really have any actual power which could make things bloody awkward. That's assuming that's what head regentess means?
From the mention of the ability to gain additional votes by having a family or paying higher taxes is this something available to 'Dutch' citizens? If so it could mean that the rich are somewhat more powerful than their actual numbers actually are. The problem with giving coloureds even a limited vote and having them going off to war, apart from the reaction by the more reactionary elements, is that the veterans coming back from the war are likely to be less pliable to being discriminated against as before, as the US for instance found after both world wars.
Guessing the "Caribbean Revolt" was by former slaves who tried to gain either independence or at least a lesser degree of discrimination/abuse?
Afraid I'm no good at Dutch but guessing that Nieuw-Vlaanderen is one of the overseas republics? Makes me think of S Africa but possibly just because it seems rather Boer sounding.
One thing the Dutch will have to consider in the area they occupy in the US is that the coastal cities especially have a lot of non-Americans, which will confuse matters. Many may want to leave anyway as much of the employment they have will have disappeared although some, such as Slavs from Austria or Poles and Jews from Russia could be unwilling to go to their former 'homes' and there would be the question of how they got back to Europe. I take it that men aren't being allowed to leave with their families, which probably means a lot of families will want to stay together and that will be a lot of mouths to feed.
Those camps sound rather like the concentration camps Britain used in S Africa which, albeit more through mis-management and cultural differences than intent caused a lot of deaths and suffering.  Also it does assume that women aren't "potentially hostile parts of the enemy population", which could be a mistake.
Not sure how likely the Dutch would be to take prizes, at least of warships but does sound like they are inflicting significant casualties on the HSF. How much of this might be Johan exaggerating his and his fleet's performance and of course he would be unlikely to admit to Dutch losses but it is sounding like they are having at least limited success.
Steve
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 18, 2018 16:10:35 GMT
Den Haag, January 10, 1914Dear father, I am so very sorry for having missed you in Antwerpen, although, when I was in The Hague, I did hear about your action on our northern shores, and am truly proud of how you defend our fatherland and take the war to our enemies. Fortunately, I was able to meet with Mother, as she doubtlessly told you, and could stay with her for a day. Only when I came there did I find out how much I had missed her, and I struggled to not part from her in tears. Her health seemed to be fine, and she took what I told her of her brother’s loss with the dignity that is to be expected of a woman like her. This dignity made me immensely proud to be her daughter and I aspire to be more like her. Unfortunately, duty called upon me, and I continued to The Hague for four days of meetings. I was received by the pensionary of foreign affairs, who questioned me about what happened in Germany, and the nature of our diplomatic contacts there. He particularly asked about the ceasefire with the Japanese, that appears to have fallen through now that we are at war with Germany. We also discussed how we could resolve our situation with the Germans, and my perception of other powers. From there, we moved to our recent allies. He revealed that he believes that none of our new allies can be trusted, and asked me about my perception of those people I missed there. He pointed out that our allies basically all were Catholics, and for that alone were untrustworthy. I however did point out that they were bound to us by need for now, and that we couldn’t stand alone given the difficult position. I spent the evening with my dear friend Trui. She is expecting her first child, but she is worried for her husband who has been called to war and has taken up a small command on the German front. She was worried about the war, but remained confident in speedy victory. On the second day, I was asked to speak before a committee of Deputies, and have to confess that I was quite nervous. They questioned me about the embassy’s conduct, and about the idea of a treaty with the Japanese. I explained that our efforts were based on starting a ceasefire, in order to secure the return of our civilians from enemy hands. One deputy from Nieuw-Vlaanderen was quite critical of this Japanese ceasefire, and I have to admit that his conduct cowed me. I however could steel myself, thinking of those poor people in the hands of the yellow barbarians, and defended this plan. It seems that many of the newspapers are opposed, as is much of popular opinion, but I believe that we can make some sort of ceasefire there in order to deal with our more immediate enemies. Finally, the decision was reached to ask me to found a Committee for the Establishment of Peace, and to become the head regentess of this committee. Naturally, I am lacking in formal powers, but I will act as a liaison between our government and the powers with which we are at war. I have been given permission to travel to London, where I can meet with their representatives and hopefully negotiate. During my stay, I heard several very interesting things. Our army seems to have pierced North American fortifications surrounding their capital both on the east and the north. As a less relevant aside, have taken their naval academy despite the defense by its cadets. It also appears that their president has been assassinated, but it’s unknown who did it and who is taking over. I have also been told that the enemy is severely lacking in armaments, but there are significant issues with the local population resisting. In response to this, general Bussenmaeckers has been given permission to use the same methods that were used in repressing the Carribean Revolt. He is permitting women and children to leave freely, but all men of military age are to be controlled, and any potentially dangerous elements are to be imprisoned to prevent further unlawful violence. One representative I spoke to said that these men could perhaps be used for the major construction works in our overseas territories, although others disagree because of the immorality of forcing white men to labour. It however seems that soon enough, a law will be passed that will allow for the recruitment of coloureds into the army and even to give them a partial vote. There still is a lot of discussion about it, but the basic idea is to give them a fifth of a vote each, without the ability to gain multiple votes for having families or paying higher taxes. There also is a plan to start the recruitment of openly catholic units, but given their difficult loyalty, that remains difficult. Although I was told that some believe that they deserve equal rights to other whites, just like the Jews. Other than on learning these little things, I spent the rest of my time in preparing for this task, and ensuring that I would have the support of our ambassador in London and secure communications with The Hague. I fortunately had the opportunity to say goodbye to several dear friends, and now I will be departing to further uncertainties. I pray that peace may return to the world. Your loving daughter, Jakoba Antwerpen, January 16, 1914Dearest Jakoba, It has taken me some time to be able to write you, but I have returned to port where some of my ships are getting some rest from the intense operations. I am pleased to say that ships under my command have sunk multiple German warships and have taken many prizes. The offensive in the north appears to have stalled despite our actions. The Germans have placed many more mines and it seems that large numbers of troops have been brought to the front there. This however has weakened the push against Luik and it now looks like the fortress will be able to be held. I am truly shocked that coloureds will be recruited into the army. I am aware that there is a need for manpower, and this will allow for the recruitment of at least two million more soldiers. It however does worry me, they will demand more rights soon enough, and that will be the end of us. Giving them the vote, even if only in part, is pure insanity. It fills me with both pride and sorrow that you have to be given the tasks that have been thrust upon you. I wish that you could live a more content life, at home, hopefully surrounded by your children. This however is a difficult time for our nation, so I understand that this call has been made on you. That the Caribbean methods are to be used is a good sign. It means that our government is taking things seriously and is doing its utmost to avoid unnecessary suffering by putting the potentially hostile parts of the enemy population into camps where they can be controlled. I however fear that this will eat up more manpower, and our supplies have to come a long way already. Which in turn brings me to other news. Hendrik has written us that he is doing well and has been given a promotion. He did suffer a minor injury, but that’s nothing to worry about. It’s mere proof that he is a true brave man and a son to be proud of, despite being in the army. Johannes is doing well at the Naval Academy, but he appears to have been caught by a strange desire. In his spare time, he has started learning to fly an aeroplane. Of course, given that our enemies are using armed aerial vehicles this will become more important, but for his further career, it would be better to aim for an assignment to the heart of our fleet. Naturally, I pray for your continued success and safety in this difficult time. Your loving father, Johan Rots Another good update raunchel |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 18, 2018 16:12:00 GMT
You mean making the United States this version of Weimar Germany and the corporal who we all know took over the place and whith it brought destruction upon the world. I mean that it is a distinct possibility that the United States ends up With a similar mindset at least, that they could have won the war if they just kept going instead of the government signing a peace treaty. The certain private (in OTL he was never a corporal, that was just something the WAllies came up With to mock him) won't travel to America he considered himself throughly German (Austrian accent be Damned). And who knows where Raunchel takes this TL? Maybe the Germans Will consider themselves beaten fair and square and have little interest in another war? Maybe the Dutch Will be more willing to ignore Japanese attrocities in China and there won't be an embargo that leads to a Pacific war?
IF the US signs a humiliating peace treaty and that may not end up being the case given events in Europe, then they will be looking for revenge and I can't see any way of imposing military limitations on such a large state as was done, even in a limited fashion with OTL Germany. Even if a more moderate peace is signed they will view the Dutch as a potential future enemy and a serious threat to their security and there's likely to be a significant arms race both on land and at sea. Which would reduce the rate of economic growth and recovery in the US but seems pretty much a given. Possibly not to the point of American forces standing in an occupied and devastated Amsterdam and the Hague but they will definitely want to regain domination of the Caribbean region as its just too important for them economically.
How Germany goes, presuming its defeated which looks likely but not certain. A heavier defeat and more brutal peace terms, which do seem rather likely if they lose might cause them to react as after 45 and seek to avoid another war, although there would be nothing like the level of guilt about their actions as after OTL WWII. A lesser defeat could see a desire to regain lost territory and prestige but whether it descends into the sort of insanity of the Nazis or is a more 'ordinary' and hence possibly more dangerous desire for revenge and a more secure position would again depend on the circumstances. A lot of events brought the Nazis to power, including the great depression and the establishment of communism in Russia which coupled with the withdrawal of the US into isolationism were all needed for a revival of German power. Although of course this time both Germany and the US, along with possibly Japan could all be revanchist powers.
I doubt you will get anything like the OTL Japanese invasion of China. More likely might be Japan staying more liberal and also quite possibly an ally of China against European economic encroachment.
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Post by eurowatch on Dec 18, 2018 17:07:57 GMT
I mean that it is a distinct possibility that the United States ends up With a similar mindset at least, that they could have won the war if they just kept going instead of the government signing a peace treaty. The certain private (in OTL he was never a corporal, that was just something the WAllies came up With to mock him) won't travel to America he considered himself throughly German (Austrian accent be Damned). And who knows where Raunchel takes this TL? Maybe the Germans Will consider themselves beaten fair and square and have little interest in another war? Maybe the Dutch Will be more willing to ignore Japanese attrocities in China and there won't be an embargo that leads to a Pacific war?
IF the US signs a humiliating peace treaty and that may not end up being the case given events in Europe, then they will be looking for revenge and I can't see any way of imposing military limitations on such a large state as was done, even in a limited fashion with OTL Germany. Even if a more moderate peace is signed they will view the Dutch as a potential future enemy and a serious threat to their security and there's likely to be a significant arms race both on land and at sea. Which would reduce the rate of economic growth and recovery in the US but seems pretty much a given. Possibly not to the point of American forces standing in an occupied and devastated Amsterdam and the Hague but they will definitely want to regain domination of the Caribbean region as its just too important for them economically.
How Germany goes, presuming its defeated which looks likely but not certain. A heavier defeat and more brutal peace terms, which do seem rather likely if they lose might cause them to react as after 45 and seek to avoid another war, although there would be nothing like the level of guilt about their actions as after OTL WWII. A lesser defeat could see a desire to regain lost territory and prestige but whether it descends into the sort of insanity of the Nazis or is a more 'ordinary' and hence possibly more dangerous desire for revenge and a more secure position would again depend on the circumstances. A lot of events brought the Nazis to power, including the great depression and the establishment of communism in Russia which coupled with the withdrawal of the US into isolationism were all needed for a revival of German power. Although of course this time both Germany and the US, along with possibly Japan could all be revanchist powers.
I doubt you will get anything like the OTL Japanese invasion of China. More likely might be Japan staying more liberal and also quite possibly an ally of China against European economic encroachment.
The most likely result in my opinion Will be a white peace. But that won't remove the insult to national honour and the US being shown as weak on an international scale. Remember that the Dutch were able to just show up, occupy two of the most famous and imprtant American cities and it Will take at several months to a year for the Americans to kick them out, that kind of embarassment won't be forgiven easily. Germany is up in the air, it could end up more cautious about throwing its weight around or be up for revaunch. I am pretty certain a Japanese allience With China is off the table, primary because the country is two years away from tearing itself to pieces and already starting to collapse at the edges. And secondary because Japan Will still need to gain an easy Source of raw materials to support and defend its empire. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 18, 2018 21:27:10 GMT
IF the US signs a humiliating peace treaty and that may not end up being the case given events in Europe, then they will be looking for revenge and I can't see any way of imposing military limitations on such a large state as was done, even in a limited fashion with OTL Germany. Even if a more moderate peace is signed they will view the Dutch as a potential future enemy and a serious threat to their security and there's likely to be a significant arms race both on land and at sea. Which would reduce the rate of economic growth and recovery in the US but seems pretty much a given. Possibly not to the point of American forces standing in an occupied and devastated Amsterdam and the Hague but they will definitely want to regain domination of the Caribbean region as its just too important for them economically.
How Germany goes, presuming its defeated which looks likely but not certain. A heavier defeat and more brutal peace terms, which do seem rather likely if they lose might cause them to react as after 45 and seek to avoid another war, although there would be nothing like the level of guilt about their actions as after OTL WWII. A lesser defeat could see a desire to regain lost territory and prestige but whether it descends into the sort of insanity of the Nazis or is a more 'ordinary' and hence possibly more dangerous desire for revenge and a more secure position would again depend on the circumstances. A lot of events brought the Nazis to power, including the great depression and the establishment of communism in Russia which coupled with the withdrawal of the US into isolationism were all needed for a revival of German power. Although of course this time both Germany and the US, along with possibly Japan could all be revanchist powers.
I doubt you will get anything like the OTL Japanese invasion of China. More likely might be Japan staying more liberal and also quite possibly an ally of China against European economic encroachment.
The most likely result in my opinion Will be a white peace. But that won't remove the insult to national honour and the US being shown as weak on an international scale. Remember that the Dutch were able to just show up, occupy two of the most famous and imprtant American cities and it Will take at several months to a year for the Americans to kick them out, that kind of embarassment won't be forgiven easily. Germany is up in the air, it could end up more cautious about throwing its weight around or be up for revaunch. I am pretty certain a Japanese allience With China is off the table, primary because the country is two years away from tearing itself to pieces and already starting to collapse at the edges. And secondary because Japan Will still need to gain an easy Source of raw materials to support and defend its empire.
In terms of the Dutch v US war I agree. The US would be unable to drive the Dutch from their home territory for probably 3-4 years if it wasn't for the war in Europe because, under the present circumstances they would really take that long to be able to build up an army strong enough and well enough equipped to do so, given the horrendous losses they will take in the intervening period. However with the war in Europe I suspect the Dutch will have to make peace on [for them] very moderate terms. Which as you said will likely mean another war some years down the line. The US will of course have to consider a new Dutch attack once the war in Europe is over although depending on how long and bloody the latter is that may not actually be a threat.
The problem for Germany may be exactly that it doesn't think it can wage a long war. In which case its likely to try and win a quick victory which is probably not its best bet. In which case it might make its primary attack against the Dutch as they would probably look weaker, at least in their European territories, than the French or Russians and since occupying much of the Dutch area would open up new avenues against the French and also hopefully weaken and displace the dangerous Dutch fleet. I would think in that they would probably be better off attacking the northern part of the country rather than in the south as apart from anything else success there opens up a salient which could be attacked by the Dutch from the north and the French from the south. However possibly the extensive railway structure they built up to support the planned attack through Belgium is too useful here?
China is already pretty chaotic but Japan is going to be in a vastly different position here. Instead of the dominant military power in the region, even if it keeps Korea and its interests in Manchuria its going to be a defensive power, fearing new attacks from the Dutch so its more likely to be eager to keep liberal and looking for allies. Britain could well stay friendly and the US in those circumstances are likely to be friendly as well as both are threatened more by the Dutch and each other. More importantly in terms of China Japan isn't going to be strong enough to be a threat and both are going to be highly concerned about the Dutch - presuming of course they come out of the current conflict largely as they are now - so a liberal Japan is likely to continue to support Sun Yat-sen's KMT.
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Post by eurowatch on Dec 18, 2018 23:22:12 GMT
The most likely result in my opinion Will be a white peace. But that won't remove the insult to national honour and the US being shown as weak on an international scale. Remember that the Dutch were able to just show up, occupy two of the most famous and imprtant American cities and it Will take at several months to a year for the Americans to kick them out, that kind of embarassment won't be forgiven easily. Germany is up in the air, it could end up more cautious about throwing its weight around or be up for revaunch. I am pretty certain a Japanese allience With China is off the table, primary because the country is two years away from tearing itself to pieces and already starting to collapse at the edges. And secondary because Japan Will still need to gain an easy Source of raw materials to support and defend its empire.
In terms of the Dutch v US war I agree. The US would be unable to drive the Dutch from their home territory for probably 3-4 years if it wasn't for the war in Europe because, under the present circumstances they would really take that long to be able to build up an army strong enough and well enough equipped to do so, given the horrendous losses they will take in the intervening period. However with the war in Europe I suspect the Dutch will have to make peace on [for them] very moderate terms. Which as you said will likely mean another war some years down the line. The US will of course have to consider a new Dutch attack once the war in Europe is over although depending on how long and bloody the latter is that may not actually be a threat.
The problem for Germany may be exactly that it doesn't think it can wage a long war. In which case its likely to try and win a quick victory which is probably not its best bet. In which case it might make its primary attack against the Dutch as they would probably look weaker, at least in their European territories, than the French or Russians and since occupying much of the Dutch area would open up new avenues against the French and also hopefully weaken and displace the dangerous Dutch fleet. I would think in that they would probably be better off attacking the northern part of the country rather than in the south as apart from anything else success there opens up a salient which could be attacked by the Dutch from the north and the French from the south. However possibly the extensive railway structure they built up to support the planned attack through Belgium is too useful here?
China is already pretty chaotic but Japan is going to be in a vastly different position here. Instead of the dominant military power in the region, even if it keeps Korea and its interests in Manchuria its going to be a defensive power, fearing new attacks from the Dutch so its more likely to be eager to keep liberal and looking for allies. Britain could well stay friendly and the US in those circumstances are likely to be friendly as well as both are threatened more by the Dutch and each other. More importantly in terms of China Japan isn't going to be strong enough to be a threat and both are going to be highly concerned about the Dutch - presuming of course they come out of the current conflict largely as they are now - so a liberal Japan is likely to continue to support Sun Yat-sen's KMT.
While I agree that Japan is going to be finding allies in the US, I suspect that the UK Will be more a potential ally here since they Will be more worried about the Dutch at home then over in the Far East. Japan also needs to rebuild its navy and for that it needs raw materials and oil it does not have. America would certainly be willing to provide those but given the distances involved (especially With a powerful Dutch Pacific squadron) and the Economic dependence on the US they Will be looking for alternate Sources closer to home. I don't think China is going to be worried all that much about the Dutch, the country was already gradually collapsing before they arrived and those Things tend to take precedence over a potential foreign invasion. So here Japan might be more interested in protecting its business interests rather then actually expanding its empire (though the latter is not out of the Question if an easy opportunity presents itself). |
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Dec 19, 2018 13:48:38 GMT
One Thing I worry about is how the next war is going to develop. The Americans are not going to take to forgive the Dutch for invading and occupying New York and Washington and are not going to consider the war over until they have managed to occupy the Dutch heartland, lack of navy be damnded. So it is very possible that the US Will use the next twenty years to prepare for the next war under a leader With near dictator levels of power. One Thing I worry about is how the next war is going to develop. The Americans are not going to take to forgive the Dutch for invading and occupying New York and Washington and are not going to consider the war over until they have managed to occupy the Dutch heartland, lack of navy be damnded. So it is very possible that the US Will use the next twenty years to prepare for the next war under a leader With near dictator levels of power. You mean making the United States this version of Weimar Germany and the corporal who we all know took over the place and whith it brought destruction upon the world. Something like that might be possible. The traditional American political system is feeling some pressure already (it's why Wilson was shot), and things will get interesting there. The European powers were more used to casualties, especially after the first extremely bloody months of the war. The Dutch still have to experience that, and it will come at a cost. Both groups in France are seen as less reliable than they could be, but the Republicans are better, they might be secular, but they're not catholics! Those people really can't be trusted because they serve the interests of the pope/Spain/their international secret conspiracy/lizardpeople/whatever. It's bad, okay. The French aren't completely crazy. They don't need another war and besides, they don't have any reason to go to war with the Americans. They don't really have lots of bases anymore, although the Dutch are of course pressuring them to gain the use of the nearby islands to help with their blockade. The whole French empire boycotting the USA however is something that will have some kind of impact. There also was a war with Bolivia, but that was mostly about large parts of the country suddenly being Dutch. As soon as they had dealt with the more important and powerful Chile, the Dutch moved on to basically send a column there to force them into a peace. The USA indeed is fighting hard for Washington. They really can't afford to give up the city without a fight. I'm still thinking about where they could move the capital, but I'm assuming somewhere away from the fighting (and the coast), but not too far to not seem cowardly. I mean, moving all the way to Montana or the like won't resonate well with the people. I'm currently thinking about a place like Atlanta, Nashville, or Chicago. Too far south also isn't entirely safe due to the war with Mexico and the withdrawal of most decent units from there to either train new ones or be sent right into Dutch artillery and machine guns. The Germans weren't crazy or stupid. They didn't know how strong the Dutch fleet was. Sure, they saw the battlecruiser force, but for all they knew, the whole battlefleet was close behind it. And the Germans always tried to conserve their strength. The Dutch have some flaws, but they won't become visible until later on. Not yet, the Germans aren't going to risk such a thing right away, even though the Dutch really want one. They have to eliminate the German fleet so they can focus on those dastardly Englishmen. The numbers don't add up completely because I did some rounding because of the smaller territories and the like adding tens or hundreds of thousands. The non-Dutch in South America indeed used to be mostly catholic, but a lot of effort has been put into efforts at conversion. Some of the coloureds and the like also remain Catholics, but they only really count white Catholics for obvious reasons. Mostly because I didn't want to count twice. For now, only the Dutch, the Jews are fully available. There also are select other peoples from which regiments are recruited, more in the colonial forces and of the 'warrior races'. The coloureds also aren't fully trusted, and there is a tendency to keep them out of the most developed areas. The issues with developed areas wanting independence are channeled by giving them full representation in the republic and elevating some of them to the status of provinces. This has also led to some of the most important provinces being overseas. There are some thirty million people living in the European Netherlands, which indeed is a huge lot. This is a heavily urbanised industrial powerhouse with some pretty severe issues in terms of agriculture, pollution, and all those other fun things. They used to partially depend on the countries just across the border to basically supply them with food and a general hinterland, but that's gone now which is leading to quite some difficulties. The American campaign is very difficult right now. Fortunately for the Dutch, they managed to capture a reasonably intact rail network and perhaps more importantly, one that was quite well-developed. Perhaps not to European standards, but it certainly was better than it is now. They for a short war there, so the infrastructure is being protected, but they're not doing things like retooling it for their needs. There indeed are issues with resistance, which are being dealt with. Perhaps not always in the best possible manner. And seriously, don't worry about asking questions. It's good to keep me thinking. I will certainly take a look there. This South America is far more developed than it was in our world, more to the level of otl North America. Mostly because I wanted to make it a truly major power, and that is an area that has been seriously underdeveloped for a very long time. So, I decided to really boost it. This also gives the ability to supply the North American operation until more important duties arise. These forces are drawn from the South American fleet along with elements of the South African one. The European fleet remains mostly intact and is itching for a fight that won't come too quickly. The convoy escorts mostly consist of destroyers and cruisers, and usually at least a single predreadnought battleship. Added to that are roving patrols (that also accompany the convoys) of pairs of dreadnoughts from Wolters' fleet. He no longer has to worry over larger amounts of American heavy units and believes that if it comes to a fight with equal numbers, Dutch superior gunnery, seamanship, and light units will save the day. There aren't as many bombardment raids anymore, especially on the East Coast, and the Dutch ships mostly busy themselves with either being in port, supporting the army, and these convoy duties. Of course, further at sea, cruisers and the like are very active indeed. And one last thing: my spell checker for some reason no longer accepts the word 'peace', I wonder what this means.
Raunchel
Of those options I suspect Chicago might be the best. Its deep in the industrial heartland and also near Canada and hence contact with the outside world that the Dutch can't easily block. [Could end up with a Trent types incident here if there was an attempt to take diplomats off a British ship - see Trent_Affair, if your not familiar with it. Actually there is the possibility as well, given their knowledge of the affair that someone could try and set something up like that, which could have some nasty consequences.
So Jakoba is as hostile to Catholics as her father. I thought she might be more tolerant, or is this just her fitting in?
If currently only the Dutch and the Jews could be used effectively then that significantly reduces the force pool available, plus with such feeling and large numbers of non-citizens in S Africa and the DEIs especially I suspect that they will also want to keep significant 'Dutch' forces back to protect those regions against both attack and also possible internal unrest. They still have significant forces to throw into the battle against Germany and with their industrial resources as well and the fleet its a significant force for the EP, even without their distractions elsewhere. Probably not as great as Britain OTL because we had less distractions and were more willing to make use of 'native' forces.
It does sound like Dutch S Africa sounds rather like OTL S Africa under apartheid and presumably there are some other elements in S America including former slaves who might be discontent but probably a lot more stable than S Africa. However would expect unrest here only if the war is prolonged and starts going badly for the Dutch or they seriously upset the Coloureds.
One thing I forgot to say with regards to air warfare, which will be going on in Europe as well as the US is that the ability for any sort of ground attack is minimal at the moment. Most a/c are so fragile and under-powered that they can't carry much in the way of weapons and early in the war pilots were taking up pistols to fire at opponents and probably wouldn't have anything heavier than a few grenades to throw against targets on the ground. Of course things started developing rapidly and I'm just think where a Mr Fokker stands currently - see Anthony_Fokker. He's only moved to Germany permanently a couple of years before and could both have divided loyalties - although its not strictly speaking his Netherlands - and also there could be some mistrust of him by Germany under those circumstances. However if Germany effectively loses him it will hurt them a bit, although other manufacturers and members of his company would probably take up most of the slack.
Spell-checkers are always to be treated with cautious. The one I have hear tries to mis-spell everything into American. However it doesn't sound like a good sign that peace is a concept its struggling with.
Steve
I guess that you're right on Chicago, and the Americans trying to provoke a Trent Affair is a great idea. Someone might just try something like that. Jakoba herself doesn't really hate catholics or the like, she however knows what she is supposed to say, both for political and personal reasons. There indeed are significant forces staying behind to keep the locals down, just like the European empires did otl. Only here, they are a bit more careful because a revolt in the provinces would be really really bad. They can built up a significant army to fight the Germans, but they have to travel and of course, have to be built up. They didn't have the huge armies of the Germans and French (although that buildup of course started a few months ago already). The whole Dutch empire works a bit like South Africa (if only because that's what I know best, and South America has a similar demographic composition in terms of a white ruling class with many non-whites below them). That basically requires something like Apartheid. Unrest always is a possibility in an empire, but generally, that didn't really happen on a large scale until things went seriously wrong. The post-war era is something completely different of course. I hadn't thought about Fokker yet, but it makes sense that he will feel at least a little conflicted. And of course, his employers might also be at least a little bit distrustful towards him now... Concerning my spell checker, I think that it has read my notes. You mean making the United States this version of Weimar Germany and the corporal who we all know took over the place and whith it brought destruction upon the world. I mean that it is a distinct possibility that the United States ends up With a similar mindset at least, that they could have won the war if they just kept going instead of the government signing a peace treaty. The certain private (in OTL he was never a corporal, that was just something the WAllies came up With to mock him) won't travel to America he considered himself throughly German (Austrian accent be Damned). And who knows where Raunchel takes this TL? Maybe the Germans Will consider themselves beaten fair and square and have little interest in another war? Maybe the Dutch Will be more willing to ignore Japanese attrocities in China and there won't be an embargo that leads to a Pacific war? I have some plans for the TL, but not much is set completely in stone because there is so much that I don't know so I will probably be changing up lots of things in the future. But let's say that this won't be the War to End All Wars Forever (this time for real). Den Haag, January 10, 1914Dear father, I am so very sorry for having missed you in Antwerpen, although, when I was in The Hague, I did hear about your action on our northern shores, and am truly proud of how you defend our fatherland and take the war to our enemies. Fortunately, I was able to meet with Mother, as she doubtlessly told you, and could stay with her for a day. Only when I came there did I find out how much I had missed her, and I struggled to not part from her in tears. Her health seemed to be fine, and she took what I told her of her brother’s loss with the dignity that is to be expected of a woman like her. This dignity made me immensely proud to be her daughter and I aspire to be more like her. Unfortunately, duty called upon me, and I continued to The Hague for four days of meetings. I was received by the pensionary of foreign affairs, who questioned me about what happened in Germany, and the nature of our diplomatic contacts there. He particularly asked about the ceasefire with the Japanese, that appears to have fallen through now that we are at war with Germany. We also discussed how we could resolve our situation with the Germans, and my perception of other powers. From there, we moved to our recent allies. He revealed that he believes that none of our new allies can be trusted, and asked me about my perception of those people I missed there. He pointed out that our allies basically all were Catholics, and for that alone were untrustworthy. I however did point out that they were bound to us by need for now, and that we couldn’t stand alone given the difficult position. I spent the evening with my dear friend Trui. She is expecting her first child, but she is worried for her husband who has been called to war and has taken up a small command on the German front. She was worried about the war, but remained confident in speedy victory. On the second day, I was asked to speak before a committee of Deputies, and have to confess that I was quite nervous. They questioned me about the embassy’s conduct, and about the idea of a treaty with the Japanese. I explained that our efforts were based on starting a ceasefire, in order to secure the return of our civilians from enemy hands. One deputy from Nieuw-Vlaanderen was quite critical of this Japanese ceasefire, and I have to admit that his conduct cowed me. I however could steel myself, thinking of those poor people in the hands of the yellow barbarians, and defended this plan. It seems that many of the newspapers are opposed, as is much of popular opinion, but I believe that we can make some sort of ceasefire there in order to deal with our more immediate enemies. Finally, the decision was reached to ask me to found a Committee for the Establishment of Peace, and to become the head regentess of this committee. Naturally, I am lacking in formal powers, but I will act as a liaison between our government and the powers with which we are at war. I have been given permission to travel to London, where I can meet with their representatives and hopefully negotiate. During my stay, I heard several very interesting things. Our army seems to have pierced North American fortifications surrounding their capital both on the east and the north. As a less relevant aside, have taken their naval academy despite the defense by its cadets. It also appears that their president has been assassinated, but it’s unknown who did it and who is taking over. I have also been told that the enemy is severely lacking in armaments, but there are significant issues with the local population resisting. In response to this, general Bussenmaeckers has been given permission to use the same methods that were used in repressing the Carribean Revolt. He is permitting women and children to leave freely, but all men of military age are to be controlled, and any potentially dangerous elements are to be imprisoned to prevent further unlawful violence. One representative I spoke to said that these men could perhaps be used for the major construction works in our overseas territories, although others disagree because of the immorality of forcing white men to labour. It however seems that soon enough, a law will be passed that will allow for the recruitment of coloureds into the army and even to give them a partial vote. There still is a lot of discussion about it, but the basic idea is to give them a fifth of a vote each, without the ability to gain multiple votes for having families or paying higher taxes. There also is a plan to start the recruitment of openly catholic units, but given their difficult loyalty, that remains difficult. Although I was told that some believe that they deserve equal rights to other whites, just like the Jews. Other than on learning these little things, I spent the rest of my time in preparing for this task, and ensuring that I would have the support of our ambassador in London and secure communications with The Hague. I fortunately had the opportunity to say goodbye to several dear friends, and now I will be departing to further uncertainties. I pray that peace may return to the world. Your loving daughter, Jakoba Antwerpen, January 16, 1914Dearest Jakoba, It has taken me some time to be able to write you, but I have returned to port where some of my ships are getting some rest from the intense operations. I am pleased to say that ships under my command have sunk multiple German warships and have taken many prizes. The offensive in the north appears to have stalled despite our actions. The Germans have placed many more mines and it seems that large numbers of troops have been brought to the front there. This however has weakened the push against Luik and it now looks like the fortress will be able to be held. I am truly shocked that coloureds will be recruited into the army. I am aware that there is a need for manpower, and this will allow for the recruitment of at least two million more soldiers. It however does worry me, they will demand more rights soon enough, and that will be the end of us. Giving them the vote, even if only in part, is pure insanity. It fills me with both pride and sorrow that you have to be given the tasks that have been thrust upon you. I wish that you could live a more content life, at home, hopefully surrounded by your children. This however is a difficult time for our nation, so I understand that this call has been made on you. That the Caribbean methods are to be used is a good sign. It means that our government is taking things seriously and is doing its utmost to avoid unnecessary suffering by putting the potentially hostile parts of the enemy population into camps where they can be controlled. I however fear that this will eat up more manpower, and our supplies have to come a long way already. Which in turn brings me to other news. Hendrik has written us that he is doing well and has been given a promotion. He did suffer a minor injury, but that’s nothing to worry about. It’s mere proof that he is a true brave man and a son to be proud of, despite being in the army. Johannes is doing well at the Naval Academy, but he appears to have been caught by a strange desire. In his spare time, he has started learning to fly an aeroplane. Of course, given that our enemies are using armed aerial vehicles this will become more important, but for his further career, it would be better to aim for an assignment to the heart of our fleet. Naturally, I pray for your continued success and safety in this difficult time. Your loving father, Johan Rots
Raunchel
Interesting that Jokaba is going to be visiting London rather back to Paris as as I would expect that the Americans and Japanese would have diplomatic representation there its unlikely the French would give that up unless they actually went to war with them. However it does give a chance to see how things are developing in the British empire and how their reacting to all those events. Be interesting if she meets any of the Pankhurst's while she's there.
Also that while Jokaba is the formal head of this new committee she doesn't really have any actual power which could make things bloody awkward. That's assuming that's what head regentess means?
From the mention of the ability to gain additional votes by having a family or paying higher taxes is this something available to 'Dutch' citizens? If so it could mean that the rich are somewhat more powerful than their actual numbers actually are. The problem with giving coloureds even a limited vote and having them going off to war, apart from the reaction by the more reactionary elements, is that the veterans coming back from the war are likely to be less pliable to being discriminated against as before, as the US for instance found after both world wars.
Guessing the "Caribbean Revolt" was by former slaves who tried to gain either independence or at least a lesser degree of discrimination/abuse?
Afraid I'm no good at Dutch but guessing that Nieuw-Vlaanderen is one of the overseas republics? Makes me think of S Africa but possibly just because it seems rather Boer sounding.
One thing the Dutch will have to consider in the area they occupy in the US is that the coastal cities especially have a lot of non-Americans, which will confuse matters. Many may want to leave anyway as much of the employment they have will have disappeared although some, such as Slavs from Austria or Poles and Jews from Russia could be unwilling to go to their former 'homes' and there would be the question of how they got back to Europe. I take it that men aren't being allowed to leave with their families, which probably means a lot of families will want to stay together and that will be a lot of mouths to feed.
Those camps sound rather like the concentration camps Britain used in S Africa which, albeit more through mis-management and cultural differences than intent caused a lot of deaths and suffering. Also it does assume that women aren't "potentially hostile parts of the enemy population", which could be a mistake.
Not sure how likely the Dutch would be to take prizes, at least of warships but does sound like they are inflicting significant casualties on the HSF. How much of this might be Johan exaggerating his and his fleet's performance and of course he would be unlikely to admit to Dutch losses but it is sounding like they are having at least limited success.
Steve
The Japanese and Americans indeed have representations in Paris, but the British are better mediators in this situation. If only because they remain neutral and really have strong reasons to want peace. They're looking for a counterbalance to the Dutch, and right now, there isn't really one available. And of course, I want to take a look at Britain here. Jakoba is the formal head of this committee, but the committee basically is a charitable organisation that she has founded, not an official part of the government. There are several reasons for this. First of all, Jakoba is a woman and the government doesn't employ women in any responsible roles, and no married women whatsoever. The second reason is that they want to maintain some distance, so they're not strictly bound by what she says while she can create an opening. This helps a bit with public opinion. They chose Jakoba because she did negotiate the ceasefire with the Japanese, and did quite some work with other countries in Berlin. Dutch citizens can indeed have multiple votes for paying certain amounts of taxes, and for having a wife and children. I took that from the Belgian voting system at the time. Every Dutch adult man has the vote, but those of the elite have more votes. Giving the coloureds the vote indeed is a huge problem, but at the same time, there is a huge need for manpower and the Dutch government believes that they will need much larger forces (and besides, the coloureds are much more disposable). It will however lead to difficulties later on. The Caribbean Revolt was an attempt by several groups to gain independence, even including some white settlers. It was quite an unpleasant war in the last century, but as is to be expected, it was quite thoroughly crushed. Nieuw-Vlaanderen is in South America, mostly around Buenos Aires. Vlaanderen was one of the provinces that managed to name a significant enough colony after itself to have it become a province as well. The occupation will be very complicated. There isn't much of an intention to stay around in the long run, but things will only keep escalating there. For now, they're putting people into camps to hopefully stop further attacks. It's not going to be fun for anyone involved. There will also be some attempts to send back emigrants to their home countries, but that will take even more time. And, depending on the country, could lead to some serious issues for the people involved (like being sent back to Russia). And there is no way that women would take up arms. That's just not in our nature The prizes that the Dutch are taking are basically merchant ships. They tend to try to capture them, and there still were a few at sea. Of course, that is seriously dying down by now, but some money was made there. Warships have only been captured in America, and that's mostly because of the geography and the general lack of preparation and competence by the Americans. Den Haag, January 10, 1914Dear father, I am so very sorry for having missed you in Antwerpen, although, when I was in The Hague, I did hear about your action on our northern shores, and am truly proud of how you defend our fatherland and take the war to our enemies. Fortunately, I was able to meet with Mother, as she doubtlessly told you, and could stay with her for a day. Only when I came there did I find out how much I had missed her, and I struggled to not part from her in tears. Her health seemed to be fine, and she took what I told her of her brother’s loss with the dignity that is to be expected of a woman like her. This dignity made me immensely proud to be her daughter and I aspire to be more like her. Unfortunately, duty called upon me, and I continued to The Hague for four days of meetings. I was received by the pensionary of foreign affairs, who questioned me about what happened in Germany, and the nature of our diplomatic contacts there. He particularly asked about the ceasefire with the Japanese, that appears to have fallen through now that we are at war with Germany. We also discussed how we could resolve our situation with the Germans, and my perception of other powers. From there, we moved to our recent allies. He revealed that he believes that none of our new allies can be trusted, and asked me about my perception of those people I missed there. He pointed out that our allies basically all were Catholics, and for that alone were untrustworthy. I however did point out that they were bound to us by need for now, and that we couldn’t stand alone given the difficult position. I spent the evening with my dear friend Trui. She is expecting her first child, but she is worried for her husband who has been called to war and has taken up a small command on the German front. She was worried about the war, but remained confident in speedy victory. On the second day, I was asked to speak before a committee of Deputies, and have to confess that I was quite nervous. They questioned me about the embassy’s conduct, and about the idea of a treaty with the Japanese. I explained that our efforts were based on starting a ceasefire, in order to secure the return of our civilians from enemy hands. One deputy from Nieuw-Vlaanderen was quite critical of this Japanese ceasefire, and I have to admit that his conduct cowed me. I however could steel myself, thinking of those poor people in the hands of the yellow barbarians, and defended this plan. It seems that many of the newspapers are opposed, as is much of popular opinion, but I believe that we can make some sort of ceasefire there in order to deal with our more immediate enemies. Finally, the decision was reached to ask me to found a Committee for the Establishment of Peace, and to become the head regentess of this committee. Naturally, I am lacking in formal powers, but I will act as a liaison between our government and the powers with which we are at war. I have been given permission to travel to London, where I can meet with their representatives and hopefully negotiate. During my stay, I heard several very interesting things. Our army seems to have pierced North American fortifications surrounding their capital both on the east and the north. As a less relevant aside, have taken their naval academy despite the defense by its cadets. It also appears that their president has been assassinated, but it’s unknown who did it and who is taking over. I have also been told that the enemy is severely lacking in armaments, but there are significant issues with the local population resisting. In response to this, general Bussenmaeckers has been given permission to use the same methods that were used in repressing the Carribean Revolt. He is permitting women and children to leave freely, but all men of military age are to be controlled, and any potentially dangerous elements are to be imprisoned to prevent further unlawful violence. One representative I spoke to said that these men could perhaps be used for the major construction works in our overseas territories, although others disagree because of the immorality of forcing white men to labour. It however seems that soon enough, a law will be passed that will allow for the recruitment of coloureds into the army and even to give them a partial vote. There still is a lot of discussion about it, but the basic idea is to give them a fifth of a vote each, without the ability to gain multiple votes for having families or paying higher taxes. There also is a plan to start the recruitment of openly catholic units, but given their difficult loyalty, that remains difficult. Although I was told that some believe that they deserve equal rights to other whites, just like the Jews. Other than on learning these little things, I spent the rest of my time in preparing for this task, and ensuring that I would have the support of our ambassador in London and secure communications with The Hague. I fortunately had the opportunity to say goodbye to several dear friends, and now I will be departing to further uncertainties. I pray that peace may return to the world. Your loving daughter, Jakoba Antwerpen, January 16, 1914Dearest Jakoba, It has taken me some time to be able to write you, but I have returned to port where some of my ships are getting some rest from the intense operations. I am pleased to say that ships under my command have sunk multiple German warships and have taken many prizes. The offensive in the north appears to have stalled despite our actions. The Germans have placed many more mines and it seems that large numbers of troops have been brought to the front there. This however has weakened the push against Luik and it now looks like the fortress will be able to be held. I am truly shocked that coloureds will be recruited into the army. I am aware that there is a need for manpower, and this will allow for the recruitment of at least two million more soldiers. It however does worry me, they will demand more rights soon enough, and that will be the end of us. Giving them the vote, even if only in part, is pure insanity. It fills me with both pride and sorrow that you have to be given the tasks that have been thrust upon you. I wish that you could live a more content life, at home, hopefully surrounded by your children. This however is a difficult time for our nation, so I understand that this call has been made on you. That the Caribbean methods are to be used is a good sign. It means that our government is taking things seriously and is doing its utmost to avoid unnecessary suffering by putting the potentially hostile parts of the enemy population into camps where they can be controlled. I however fear that this will eat up more manpower, and our supplies have to come a long way already. Which in turn brings me to other news. Hendrik has written us that he is doing well and has been given a promotion. He did suffer a minor injury, but that’s nothing to worry about. It’s mere proof that he is a true brave man and a son to be proud of, despite being in the army. Johannes is doing well at the Naval Academy, but he appears to have been caught by a strange desire. In his spare time, he has started learning to fly an aeroplane. Of course, given that our enemies are using armed aerial vehicles this will become more important, but for his further career, it would be better to aim for an assignment to the heart of our fleet. Naturally, I pray for your continued success and safety in this difficult time. Your loving father, Johan Rots Another good update raunchel Thank you! I mean that it is a distinct possibility that the United States ends up With a similar mindset at least, that they could have won the war if they just kept going instead of the government signing a peace treaty. The certain private (in OTL he was never a corporal, that was just something the WAllies came up With to mock him) won't travel to America he considered himself throughly German (Austrian accent be Damned). And who knows where Raunchel takes this TL? Maybe the Germans Will consider themselves beaten fair and square and have little interest in another war? Maybe the Dutch Will be more willing to ignore Japanese attrocities in China and there won't be an embargo that leads to a Pacific war?
IF the US signs a humiliating peace treaty and that may not end up being the case given events in Europe, then they will be looking for revenge and I can't see any way of imposing military limitations on such a large state as was done, even in a limited fashion with OTL Germany. Even if a more moderate peace is signed they will view the Dutch as a potential future enemy and a serious threat to their security and there's likely to be a significant arms race both on land and at sea. Which would reduce the rate of economic growth and recovery in the US but seems pretty much a given. Possibly not to the point of American forces standing in an occupied and devastated Amsterdam and the Hague but they will definitely want to regain domination of the Caribbean region as its just too important for them economically.
How Germany goes, presuming its defeated which looks likely but not certain. A heavier defeat and more brutal peace terms, which do seem rather likely if they lose might cause them to react as after 45 and seek to avoid another war, although there would be nothing like the level of guilt about their actions as after OTL WWII. A lesser defeat could see a desire to regain lost territory and prestige but whether it descends into the sort of insanity of the Nazis or is a more 'ordinary' and hence possibly more dangerous desire for revenge and a more secure position would again depend on the circumstances. A lot of events brought the Nazis to power, including the great depression and the establishment of communism in Russia which coupled with the withdrawal of the US into isolationism were all needed for a revival of German power. Although of course this time both Germany and the US, along with possibly Japan could all be revanchist powers.
I doubt you will get anything like the OTL Japanese invasion of China. More likely might be Japan staying more liberal and also quite possibly an ally of China against European economic encroachment.
If the Americans sign any sort of treaty, it will lead to lots of domestic issues. They are having issues with the population and those are very hard to get under control. Only a real defeat could deal with that, but the Dutch (and anyone else for that matter) don't have the strength to do anything close to that. That means that if any sort of treaty is signed, there will be a lot to gain politically by advocating revanchism and military buildup. At the same time, movements for peace will be suspect. At least, in the medium term. I won't speak too much about how things will develop in Germany and other European countries, because there, there are far too many things to be explored. I however don't just want to follow OTL unless it really makes sense.
IF the US signs a humiliating peace treaty and that may not end up being the case given events in Europe, then they will be looking for revenge and I can't see any way of imposing military limitations on such a large state as was done, even in a limited fashion with OTL Germany. Even if a more moderate peace is signed they will view the Dutch as a potential future enemy and a serious threat to their security and there's likely to be a significant arms race both on land and at sea. Which would reduce the rate of economic growth and recovery in the US but seems pretty much a given. Possibly not to the point of American forces standing in an occupied and devastated Amsterdam and the Hague but they will definitely want to regain domination of the Caribbean region as its just too important for them economically.
How Germany goes, presuming its defeated which looks likely but not certain. A heavier defeat and more brutal peace terms, which do seem rather likely if they lose might cause them to react as after 45 and seek to avoid another war, although there would be nothing like the level of guilt about their actions as after OTL WWII. A lesser defeat could see a desire to regain lost territory and prestige but whether it descends into the sort of insanity of the Nazis or is a more 'ordinary' and hence possibly more dangerous desire for revenge and a more secure position would again depend on the circumstances. A lot of events brought the Nazis to power, including the great depression and the establishment of communism in Russia which coupled with the withdrawal of the US into isolationism were all needed for a revival of German power. Although of course this time both Germany and the US, along with possibly Japan could all be revanchist powers.
I doubt you will get anything like the OTL Japanese invasion of China. More likely might be Japan staying more liberal and also quite possibly an ally of China against European economic encroachment.
The most likely result in my opinion Will be a white peace. But that won't remove the insult to national honour and the US being shown as weak on an international scale. Remember that the Dutch were able to just show up, occupy two of the most famous and imprtant American cities and it Will take at several months to a year for the Americans to kick them out, that kind of embarassment won't be forgiven easily. Germany is up in the air, it could end up more cautious about throwing its weight around or be up for revaunch. I am pretty certain a Japanese allience With China is off the table, primary because the country is two years away from tearing itself to pieces and already starting to collapse at the edges. And secondary because Japan Will still need to gain an easy Source of raw materials to support and defend its empire. Even a white peace won't be enough to get the Americans to back down. They now feel deeply insulted, and will be looking for a way to hit back to reassert their masculinity. The most likely result in my opinion Will be a white peace. But that won't remove the insult to national honour and the US being shown as weak on an international scale. Remember that the Dutch were able to just show up, occupy two of the most famous and imprtant American cities and it Will take at several months to a year for the Americans to kick them out, that kind of embarassment won't be forgiven easily. Germany is up in the air, it could end up more cautious about throwing its weight around or be up for revaunch. I am pretty certain a Japanese allience With China is off the table, primary because the country is two years away from tearing itself to pieces and already starting to collapse at the edges. And secondary because Japan Will still need to gain an easy Source of raw materials to support and defend its empire.
In terms of the Dutch v US war I agree. The US would be unable to drive the Dutch from their home territory for probably 3-4 years if it wasn't for the war in Europe because, under the present circumstances they would really take that long to be able to build up an army strong enough and well enough equipped to do so, given the horrendous losses they will take in the intervening period. However with the war in Europe I suspect the Dutch will have to make peace on [for them] very moderate terms. Which as you said will likely mean another war some years down the line. The US will of course have to consider a new Dutch attack once the war in Europe is over although depending on how long and bloody the latter is that may not actually be a threat.
The problem for Germany may be exactly that it doesn't think it can wage a long war. In which case its likely to try and win a quick victory which is probably not its best bet. In which case it might make its primary attack against the Dutch as they would probably look weaker, at least in their European territories, than the French or Russians and since occupying much of the Dutch area would open up new avenues against the French and also hopefully weaken and displace the dangerous Dutch fleet. I would think in that they would probably be better off attacking the northern part of the country rather than in the south as apart from anything else success there opens up a salient which could be attacked by the Dutch from the north and the French from the south. However possibly the extensive railway structure they built up to support the planned attack through Belgium is too useful here?
China is already pretty chaotic but Japan is going to be in a vastly different position here. Instead of the dominant military power in the region, even if it keeps Korea and its interests in Manchuria its going to be a defensive power, fearing new attacks from the Dutch so its more likely to be eager to keep liberal and looking for allies. Britain could well stay friendly and the US in those circumstances are likely to be friendly as well as both are threatened more by the Dutch and each other. More importantly in terms of China Japan isn't going to be strong enough to be a threat and both are going to be highly concerned about the Dutch - presuming of course they come out of the current conflict largely as they are now - so a liberal Japan is likely to continue to support Sun Yat-sen's KMT.
The Dutch will be aiming for a rather moderate peace, which is one of the reasons why Jakoba is talking to them. But it will be hard for the Americans to really accept it, especially now that Wilson has been shot for basically not doing enough to fight back. But whatever happens, the paranoid streak that has always been present in American politics will be seriously strengthened. |
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raunchel
Commander
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Post by raunchel on Dec 19, 2018 13:49:32 GMT
London, January 15, 1914
Dear father,
Please, tell me that Hendrik’s injuries aren’t too terrible and that he is in safety. I am immensely proud of his heroism and sacrifice. But still, as a sister, I am pained that he suffers. Johannes always had a fascination for these flying machines, Mother often warned him of their danger, but I fear that it only strengthened his manly desire to risk himself for achievements.
Just before I departed, I met with several members of the council of pensionaries, including the grand pensionary. Kersten seemed to me to be far more mild-mannered than he is often depicted to be in the newspapers that I now occasionally read because of my unpleasant duties. It is quite striking to me that a man who is often described as strong and even overbearing is in fact a man who tends to carefully chosen words.
In this meeting, I was instructed about the terms that I would be allowed to offer, but they also told me that initially, I should offer far less. Here, I must confess that pride filled me as I already was aware of this and that such illustrious gentlemen place such confidence in me.
Once I arrived in London, I was taken to the embassy where I was introduced to the staff and also to one of my fellow regentesses, Mrs Roelands, the ambassador’s wife. She is a kind woman with a stern manner, as a woman of standing should possess. It feels strange to me to be placed in some way on the same or a higher level than a woman almost thrice my age, whose own daughters are older than me and already married.
Unfortunately, because we are to remain somewhat independent of the embassy, I will be staying at a hotel until a proper building has been purchased and furnished for the needs of my committee.
London as a city appears to be struck by a sort of depression, there are soldiers everywhere, but they all seem to experience a mixture between boredom and anger. At the bakeries and other such shops, there are lines of women, as it seems that shortages have arisen, a bit like I have also seen in Amsterdam.
In about an hour, I will be meeting with the English foreign secretary to discuss the current situation and our hope to restore peace. He has kindly invited me, and has indicated that he is involved in making arrangements for me to speak with representatives of the Japanese and North American governments.
Your loving daughter,
Jakoba
Battlecruiser Vlijt, January 19, 1914
Dearest Jakoba,
I am truly grateful for your letter and hope that London is treating you well. I once visited the city, and I hope that your reception is kinder than the one I received at that time.
What you mention about your committee however fills me with questions and worries with which your mother fully agrees with me. Is there any intention for further travel? And do you have accompaniment from true representatives of our government?
Hendrik is fine. He was wounded in the leg, but can still walk and has made a full recovery. He remains at the front, it’s just not possible to withdraw units from it as long as the Germans remain on our sacred soil. The first French units have arrived at the front, and I’ve been told that there have been issues in command of those troops, with the French claiming to be the superiors of our own officers. As you know, the army isn’t the epitome of quality, but this is our country, and our officers certainly are superior to some papists.
It appears that significant German forces have been shifted to the north and an assault was mounted on the islands we hold, but we managed to beat them back. Our army however has been forced to withdraw, although it remains on German soil.
I have been told about a more general war plan being prepared, and a major offensive will take place in March. Naturally, I cannot write about this as it is possible that my letters will be read. I believe that this will allow us to put an end to this war.
Your loving father,
Johan Rots
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However it doesn't sound like a good sign that peace is a concept its struggling with.
Also it does assume that women aren't "potentially hostile parts of the enemy population", which could be a mistake.