lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 14, 2018 11:34:42 GMT
Another fine update raunchel. So the war with Germany has begun, I wonder if the Republican will lay siege of Tsingtao, like what the Japanese did in OTL. So we might have a faction made up of the United States, Japan and Germany versus France, Netherlands and maybe in the furure the United Kingdom. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 14, 2018 11:41:35 GMT
Raunchel
IIRC it was referenced on a discussion on a naval history site about a US - UK war in the 1920's which unfortunately got locked after one poster got too disruptive. Did look back through the pages but couldn't find the thread. Possibly because it was locked it was deleted or is hidden from view. However will ask on the site if anyone can given me the link.
Don't think the Americans in the Philippines will cause the Dutch local forces many problems but they will be another distraction and if the Dutch come down too heavily on the Filipinos that could be another issue. By that time a fair number of the locals were co-operating with the US so its a possibility but could go either way.
Sounds like things are bad in Berlin although hopefully not as bad as that. While tensions got high during the war and there were abused in occupied territories and at sea it does seem a bit odd that the German government allowed rioting against an embassy in their own capital. Although given your research did something like that happen OTL?
I hope and suspect that Jakoba is OK and wonder if she was outside the embassy at the time visiting one of her friends and possibly unsure what had happened. Given her uncle's poor health it might be that there was an hostile crowd outside and he had some sort of heart attack or stoke triggered by that. Sounds a bit more likely than the suggestion of the embassy being stormed. Anyway will find out in due course. Johan of course will, understandably in those circumstances, not be happy.
If the Germans are attacking in strength it could be difficult for the Dutch and does suggest some intent by the German authorities. Alternative if they have moved most of their forces away to fight elsewhere and its just forces left on the border the Dutch, especially with reserves still called up I suspect, should be able to hold. A lot of course depends on how the Dutch compare with our world organised armies. The only fighting of note so far has been with the Japan as the Chileans would have lost a lot of their troops and the US was caught unprepared and largely unarmed.
Steve
Steve
The Americans there indeed wouldn't be much of a problem. At first, the Dutch will be too busy to really be too awful in their new part of the East Indies, but over time, that can change of course. Of course, by the time that happens, the war will have been going on for a bit longer which can change everything. Concerning the situation in Berlin, everything will be revealed in the next update. If the Germans attack with their full strength, they'll smash right through the Dutch because, well, that was the thing their army was good at. Especially because they would already have their siege artillery ready to pulverise Dutch fortresses with everyone in them (including Jakoba's eldest brother of course, he's in Luik, right where the Germans would originally have focused their efforts). Germany will indeed be the first 'real' enemy where both sides employ first rate land forces. The Japanese war is more of a naval affair, the Chilean (and other Latin American) wars are against third-rate militaries, and as you say, the US just didn't have the kind of military power to really fight back yet. Of course, more will be revealed soon. Raunchel
No reply yet on the other site but did some searching on Ytube and found "Giants with feet of Clay: The US Army enters WWII" by Richard S Faulkner. Its one of a series under the category of "Pershing Lecture Series" on WWI and you might find others of interest for some of the information on the state of the armies and the problems they faced. Pretty certain this was the guy I remember and although the presentation doesn't seem exactly as I remember it I think he's done it or something similar more than once or possibly just my memory playing up. However covers most of the ground I recall and hopefully is helpful. About 60 minutes long but the 1st ~5 minutes is waffle by two people introducing him and there is a Q&A section from about the hour mark. Hope it helps.
Steve
Thanks for telling me about it. I'll be watching/listening to it later today when I'm doing some lab work.
Good to hear. Hopefully on this last bit the lab work doesn't involve anything potentially hazardous does it in case you get too distracted. I don't think its exactly the presentation I recall from before but their got a common origin. Pretty certain there was less about the political infighting over military enlargement prior to the US dow and also about some of Pershing's choices of staff and more about how dependent the US was on allied equipment but the same basic problem of massive expansion from a pretty small base is the core of it. Overall the situation is somewhat worse here for the US. They don't have to go up against the sort of experienced forces of 1917/18 and are fighting at home. However their starting from scratch against an experienced, well equipped and pretty large - I would gather - land power and between politics, economics and geography they have very little chance of getting outside equipment or advice from anywhere else. Plus the fact their fighting at home means they don't really have any time to try and train anyone up and their own small regular forces are being put through the grinder. Plus their losing some of their most important economic areas.
I am wondering if in a short while Britain will offer mediation between the Dutch and both the US and Japan. Waiting a bit to have the Dutch see how big a problem they have in Europe so their more willing to make peace with their other opponents. Working on the basis that Britain doesn't want to see either power lose too heavily and also wants trade with the US to resumes ASAP. The key factor I suspect will be that neither power will be happy with any idea of being forcible disarmed, which leaves them vulnerable to future attacks, let along the Dutch aims to solely control Japanese trade. On the other hand the Dutch will be aware that the US especially will be a potential opponent who is both capable of and likely to rearm to regain lost territories and influence. Possibly some compromise which sets limits on their naval power but their allowed to build up their home defences?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 14, 2018 12:17:02 GMT
Paris, December 25, 1914Dear Father, I am truly sorry for my lack of recent writing, but so much has happened to stop me from doing so. Just before we would have left to deliver the ultimatum, Uncle Sytze read the final text. I fear that his health couldn’t bear it anymore, and he collapsed. I fear that Mother doesn’t yet know, and want to ask you to tell her delicately. I couldn’t bring myself to write her about this myself, for which I’m sorry. There was little time to mourn, and we decided that I would instead present the document to the emperor. He was incensed, to say the least, denying that one of his submarines had attacked one of our ships, in order to lure us to war with the French. This was despite all our evidence to the contrary. He barely restrained himself from striking me, but didn’t allow me to explain any further. Naturally, we demanded a formal apology and acceptance of guilt and reparations in both this attack and the earlier one along with the handing over of senior naval officers for trial. I suggested that some officers might have been acting behind his back, an idea that he strongly rejected. The emperor told me that this ultimatum was completely unacceptable, and almost chased me out. The population didn’t yet know what had happened, so I could return to the embassy without undue problems. Later that day, things however had changed and a crowd had gathered in front of the embassy. It was truly frightening. I used that time to make all the necessary arrangements, especially concerning Uncle Sytze’s funeral. I asked the English minister to see to that, and he kindly agreed, for which I remain grateful. I’m deeply sorry that I wasn’t able to be there myself, but the situation demanded otherwise. The last of our papers and codes were burned, and I said my goodbyes to Karen and Elsbeth. I hope that this war can quickly be resolved so I can see them again. It was a tearful goodbye and I gave them a few gifts to say goodbye. They then helped me pack my things while outside, the demonstration grew larger. Later in the afternoon, German policemen entered the embassy, informing us that they were there to escort us to the train station because war had broken out. We needed their escort, it was downright frightening to see the crowds. Because of the fighting on the border, we were sent southward, into Switzerland. From there, our small fellowship made its way to France, where we now reside in our embassy there. Mr. Bussenmaecker has been kind enough to allow us to stay for a little while, and has offered me a temporary posting. Gladly, I agreed. I know that I promised to return home, but I can still offer something to my country. How are you? And how is Hendrik? I am worried over him, as it seems that he was right into the path of the German army when they launched their attack. I prayed for all of you every day, as well as for this war being over. Your loving daughter, Jakoba Battlecruiser Vlijt, December 30, 1914Dearest Jakoba, You don’t know how much good it does me to receive your letter. We were all in a state of mourning, the English had told us about the death of Uncle Sytze, but it was unknown how you were and we all feared for the worst. Your mother feared that all sorts of terrible things had happened to you, and she deeply wishes for your quick return. There has been no word from or about Hendrik, which makes me confident that he remains safe. A few days after war was declared however, terrible fighting around Luik started, the German forces appear very strong but at least the French have sent reinforcements. Personally, I have been active in the North Sea in order to protect our shipping and shores. Your mother has returned from Ameland, also on my urging, because it would have been terribly exposed. The battlefleet has also been active in supporting operations to further secure our coastal position, including an assault on Borkum, which I covered at a distance by an attack on German patrols near Heligoland leading to a small victory. I have also busied myself with other matters. Because we are now at war, the building of lighter ships has been increased in order to have sufficient escorts for our convoys. The admiralty of Antwerpen has been kind enough to offer your mother the honour of christening a newly launched light cruiser and to name it in your honour. On land, we are on the defensive in the south, facing the bulk of the German forces arrayed against us, but fortunately, there is a small offensive to take the other side of the Ems underway. From what I’ve heard, they have taken Papenburg and Emden. Unfortunately, it seems that your Japanese ceasefire has broken down in response to this, and the treacherous yellows have declared war again. I unfortunately know little about the fighting there. In North America, Philadelphia has been taken and the ships in its harbour were scuttled. Our troops, now reinforced to a total of eight divisions along with auxiliary units, have also taken large parts the Delmarva peninsula, allowing them to threaten the enemy capital. Our generals there are requesting more men, but given the military situation, they are instead being sent here. The day after tomorrow, I will be going to sea again, and pray for victory. Your loving father, Johan Rots
Raunchel
Good to here that Jakoba is OK and nothing too nasty went on in Berlin, which does makes sense in the circumstances. I suspect Wilhelm probably didn't know what was going on as it was a pretty stupid thing to do, and while he was rash I'm not sure he would agree to something like that. Hence a few heads might roll in the navy for the mess created but the German leadership are unlikely to admit their forces were responsible. Probably also since while their still vehemently denying it they have some hope of keeping Britain from joining the war against them.
With Jakoba in Paris that will give an insight on how the French are doing, although shaded of course by French rather than German bias.  Also on whether the two powers become formal allies or just associated powers. Mind you at least now the French should have less concern about nitrate supplies.
I'm guessing that Luik is Liege and Delmarva is Delaware? That sounds like potentially a lot of territory for 8 divisions to hold, even with auxiliaries, although given how weak the Americans are at the moment this isn't currently a problem but without further reinforcements because of the war in Europe it could be. Plus supply lines could be vulnerable to sub and possibly light forces attacks although by the sound of it the Dutch are used to convoying in wartime, both for military units and commerce. Which would fit in with the frequent wars with England their used to.
In Europe how well defended are the Dutch borders? Presumably some fortifications at Liege and other places and probably in the north the plans to flood areas to help defend the core areas along the coastal regions. However since their not used to having powerful neighbours they might not be as strong as OTL Liege. Still the Germans have most of their forces already committed elsewhere and if necessary they can call on French support. Plus it does sound like their actually attacking and occupying German territory in the north. This is likely to prompt the Germans to switch forces from other fronts, most likely the Polish one against the Russians.
This situation could mean that Bulgaria decides to stay neutral rather than join the CPs as it could look like their going to go down, possibly soon, although not as quickly I suspect many would expect.
Anyway will be interested to see how things develop. Many thanks for another good chapter.
Steve
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 14, 2018 12:26:15 GMT
Another fine update raunchel . So the war with Germany has begun, I wonder if the Republican will lay siege of Tsingtao, like what the Japanese did in OTL. So we might have a faction made up of the United States, Japan and Germany versus France, Netherlands and maybe in the furure the United Kingdom.
I would expect that Tsingtao and the other German possessions in the Pacific will be attacked although they might prioritise the war against the Japanese and mopping up the Philippines 1st but the areas is now fairly complex. Be interesting what Admiral von Spee does with the German Pacific fleet. Its nowhere near strong enough to oppose the Dutch openly but could be a pain raiding targets, or possibly end up with the US either in Hawaii or the Pacific coast.
Was thinking that a formal alliance between Germany [+Austria & Turkey], the US and Japan was unlikely but thinking that you have isolated sets of forces from all three powers in the Pacific/Far East you could see them co-operating locally and if the Dutch don't seek to end one of the other wars quickly, on for them generous terms, then it could occur. In which case because Japan is Britain's only formal ally and the US such an important trading partner I'm not sure what London would do. Think they would be quite happy to join a war against the central powers but if their in formal alliance with the other two it becomes very awkward as to which way Britain goes.
Steve
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Dec 16, 2018 12:40:25 GMT
Another fine update raunchel . So the war with Germany has begun, I wonder if the Republican will lay siege of Tsingtao, like what the Japanese did in OTL. So we might have a faction made up of the United States, Japan and Germany versus France, Netherlands and maybe in the furure the United Kingdom. Thank you. The Republic will be moving against any German forces and holdings in the area, if only to protect their shipping. And don't forget Russia... The Americans there indeed wouldn't be much of a problem. At first, the Dutch will be too busy to really be too awful in their new part of the East Indies, but over time, that can change of course. Of course, by the time that happens, the war will have been going on for a bit longer which can change everything. Concerning the situation in Berlin, everything will be revealed in the next update. If the Germans attack with their full strength, they'll smash right through the Dutch because, well, that was the thing their army was good at. Especially because they would already have their siege artillery ready to pulverise Dutch fortresses with everyone in them (including Jakoba's eldest brother of course, he's in Luik, right where the Germans would originally have focused their efforts). Germany will indeed be the first 'real' enemy where both sides employ first rate land forces. The Japanese war is more of a naval affair, the Chilean (and other Latin American) wars are against third-rate militaries, and as you say, the US just didn't have the kind of military power to really fight back yet. Of course, more will be revealed soon. Thanks for telling me about it. I'll be watching/listening to it later today when I'm doing some lab work.
Good to hear. Hopefully on this last bit the lab work doesn't involve anything potentially hazardous does it in case you get too distracted. I don't think its exactly the presentation I recall from before but their got a common origin. Pretty certain there was less about the political infighting over military enlargement prior to the US dow and also about some of Pershing's choices of staff and more about how dependent the US was on allied equipment but the same basic problem of massive expansion from a pretty small base is the core of it. Overall the situation is somewhat worse here for the US. They don't have to go up against the sort of experienced forces of 1917/18 and are fighting at home. However their starting from scratch against an experienced, well equipped and pretty large - I would gather - land power and between politics, economics and geography they have very little chance of getting outside equipment or advice from anywhere else. Plus the fact their fighting at home means they don't really have any time to try and train anyone up and their own small regular forces are being put through the grinder. Plus their losing some of their most important economic areas.
I am wondering if in a short while Britain will offer mediation between the Dutch and both the US and Japan. Waiting a bit to have the Dutch see how big a problem they have in Europe so their more willing to make peace with their other opponents. Working on the basis that Britain doesn't want to see either power lose too heavily and also wants trade with the US to resumes ASAP. The key factor I suspect will be that neither power will be happy with any idea of being forcible disarmed, which leaves them vulnerable to future attacks, let along the Dutch aims to solely control Japanese trade. On the other hand the Dutch will be aware that the US especially will be a potential opponent who is both capable of and likely to rearm to regain lost territories and influence. Possibly some compromise which sets limits on their naval power but their allowed to build up their home defences?
There isn't anything particularly hazardous about it. Of course, most things are rather toxic (that's what you get in biochemistry), but I like to think that I'm fairly skilled by now, and besides, I'm not swallowing anything. I'm not doing this with some of my most 'fun' compounds (not going to say which, that would tell too much about what I'm doing), but I have enough poison on my shelf to kill a city. At least, if you manage to properly feed it to them, which is impossible. It was a fascinating thing to listen to, and I have to admit, I listened to some other lectures afterwards. The numbers alone were downright shocking and I will be making use of that. And, of course, I really pity the Americans. Even in 1917, they couldn't even arm their own men, and that was with at least a partially-built war industry. Based on what I could find, the war (from the Dutch perspective), will be most like a colonial war rather than one between peer powers. That unfortunately will also bring some unpleasantries to the fore. The Brits are really stuck now. They have to deal with their formal ally being at war with the power that is the co-belligerent of their informal allies. The American war also is the first ever war between two democracies, which further complicated matters. The UK also has a strong interest in the Atlantic being at peace, because it is threatening their vital trade and imports, especially with the loss of South Africa and Argentine. Paris, December 25, 1914Dear Father, I am truly sorry for my lack of recent writing, but so much has happened to stop me from doing so. Just before we would have left to deliver the ultimatum, Uncle Sytze read the final text. I fear that his health couldn’t bear it anymore, and he collapsed. I fear that Mother doesn’t yet know, and want to ask you to tell her delicately. I couldn’t bring myself to write her about this myself, for which I’m sorry. There was little time to mourn, and we decided that I would instead present the document to the emperor. He was incensed, to say the least, denying that one of his submarines had attacked one of our ships, in order to lure us to war with the French. This was despite all our evidence to the contrary. He barely restrained himself from striking me, but didn’t allow me to explain any further. Naturally, we demanded a formal apology and acceptance of guilt and reparations in both this attack and the earlier one along with the handing over of senior naval officers for trial. I suggested that some officers might have been acting behind his back, an idea that he strongly rejected. The emperor told me that this ultimatum was completely unacceptable, and almost chased me out. The population didn’t yet know what had happened, so I could return to the embassy without undue problems. Later that day, things however had changed and a crowd had gathered in front of the embassy. It was truly frightening. I used that time to make all the necessary arrangements, especially concerning Uncle Sytze’s funeral. I asked the English minister to see to that, and he kindly agreed, for which I remain grateful. I’m deeply sorry that I wasn’t able to be there myself, but the situation demanded otherwise. The last of our papers and codes were burned, and I said my goodbyes to Karen and Elsbeth. I hope that this war can quickly be resolved so I can see them again. It was a tearful goodbye and I gave them a few gifts to say goodbye. They then helped me pack my things while outside, the demonstration grew larger. Later in the afternoon, German policemen entered the embassy, informing us that they were there to escort us to the train station because war had broken out. We needed their escort, it was downright frightening to see the crowds. Because of the fighting on the border, we were sent southward, into Switzerland. From there, our small fellowship made its way to France, where we now reside in our embassy there. Mr. Bussenmaecker has been kind enough to allow us to stay for a little while, and has offered me a temporary posting. Gladly, I agreed. I know that I promised to return home, but I can still offer something to my country. How are you? And how is Hendrik? I am worried over him, as it seems that he was right into the path of the German army when they launched their attack. I prayed for all of you every day, as well as for this war being over. Your loving daughter, Jakoba Battlecruiser Vlijt, December 30, 1914Dearest Jakoba, You don’t know how much good it does me to receive your letter. We were all in a state of mourning, the English had told us about the death of Uncle Sytze, but it was unknown how you were and we all feared for the worst. Your mother feared that all sorts of terrible things had happened to you, and she deeply wishes for your quick return. There has been no word from or about Hendrik, which makes me confident that he remains safe. A few days after war was declared however, terrible fighting around Luik started, the German forces appear very strong but at least the French have sent reinforcements. Personally, I have been active in the North Sea in order to protect our shipping and shores. Your mother has returned from Ameland, also on my urging, because it would have been terribly exposed. The battlefleet has also been active in supporting operations to further secure our coastal position, including an assault on Borkum, which I covered at a distance by an attack on German patrols near Heligoland leading to a small victory. I have also busied myself with other matters. Because we are now at war, the building of lighter ships has been increased in order to have sufficient escorts for our convoys. The admiralty of Antwerpen has been kind enough to offer your mother the honour of christening a newly launched light cruiser and to name it in your honour. On land, we are on the defensive in the south, facing the bulk of the German forces arrayed against us, but fortunately, there is a small offensive to take the other side of the Ems underway. From what I’ve heard, they have taken Papenburg and Emden. Unfortunately, it seems that your Japanese ceasefire has broken down in response to this, and the treacherous yellows have declared war again. I unfortunately know little about the fighting there. In North America, Philadelphia has been taken and the ships in its harbour were scuttled. Our troops, now reinforced to a total of eight divisions along with auxiliary units, have also taken large parts the Delmarva peninsula, allowing them to threaten the enemy capital. Our generals there are requesting more men, but given the military situation, they are instead being sent here. The day after tomorrow, I will be going to sea again, and pray for victory. Your loving father, Johan Rots
Raunchel
Good to here that Jakoba is OK and nothing too nasty went on in Berlin, which does makes sense in the circumstances. I suspect Wilhelm probably didn't know what was going on as it was a pretty stupid thing to do, and while he was rash I'm not sure he would agree to something like that. Hence a few heads might roll in the navy for the mess created but the German leadership are unlikely to admit their forces were responsible. Probably also since while their still vehemently denying it they have some hope of keeping Britain from joining the war against them.
With Jakoba in Paris that will give an insight on how the French are doing, although shaded of course by French rather than German bias. Also on whether the two powers become formal allies or just associated powers. Mind you at least now the French should have less concern about nitrate supplies.
I'm guessing that Luik is Liege and Delmarva is Delaware? That sounds like potentially a lot of territory for 8 divisions to hold, even with auxiliaries, although given how weak the Americans are at the moment this isn't currently a problem but without further reinforcements because of the war in Europe it could be. Plus supply lines could be vulnerable to sub and possibly light forces attacks although by the sound of it the Dutch are used to convoying in wartime, both for military units and commerce. Which would fit in with the frequent wars with England their used to.
In Europe how well defended are the Dutch borders? Presumably some fortifications at Liege and other places and probably in the north the plans to flood areas to help defend the core areas along the coastal regions. However since their not used to having powerful neighbours they might not be as strong as OTL Liege. Still the Germans have most of their forces already committed elsewhere and if necessary they can call on French support. Plus it does sound like their actually attacking and occupying German territory in the north. This is likely to prompt the Germans to switch forces from other fronts, most likely the Polish one against the Russians.
This situation could mean that Bulgaria decides to stay neutral rather than join the CPs as it could look like their going to go down, possibly soon, although not as quickly I suspect many would expect.
Anyway will be interested to see how things develop. Many thanks for another good chapter.
Steve
It will take a lot for the Germans to admit responsibility. That could only really be done if they are beaten in the war and subjected to a Versailles-style treaty. Or maybe someone could brag about it years later in his memoirs. And get promptly told by the government that he's a liar of course. Jakoba is indeed going to be meeting with some important French figures, and it gives a good opportunity to explore that a little. and of course, to include a little more about how the French are doing (winning, obviously, any day now. Just one more push). Luik indeed is Liege. I just refuse to call it Liege out of principle. Delmarva is the official name of the peninsula that most of Delaware is on. It basically puts the Dutch incredibly close to Washington, with all the effects that will have. The war the Dutch are fighting there is mostly suppressing partisans (including by atrocities, some of which are done by colonial troops with all the effects that will have). Or, to troll the Americans, it's a matter of marching. The Dutch indeed use a convoy system, which is a basic part of their military doctrine. It will certainly be a surprise to the powers in our world who firmly rejected it. The Dutch border security is based on a series of fortresses (like Luik, Maastricht, and a few others), that have been given reinforcements. It however isn't enough to just stop the full might of the German army. The offensive in the north is in Ostfriesland, and basically has units of the Dutch army approaching Wilhelmshaven. So, the Germans really have to react there. This also is a fun area to fight a land war, given the rather high level of the ground water which will be a lot of fun when they have to dig in. Or someone just floods the place of course. Many will now be thinking that the Central Powers will now quickly fall, but, as always, nothing is quick. Especially not with the huge sunk costs that have already ben incurred. Another fine update raunchel . So the war with Germany has begun, I wonder if the Republican will lay siege of Tsingtao, like what the Japanese did in OTL. So we might have a faction made up of the United States, Japan and Germany versus France, Netherlands and maybe in the furure the United Kingdom.
I would expect that Tsingtao and the other German possessions in the Pacific will be attacked although they might prioritise the war against the Japanese and mopping up the Philippines 1st but the areas is now fairly complex. Be interesting what Admiral von Spee does with the German Pacific fleet. Its nowhere near strong enough to oppose the Dutch openly but could be a pain raiding targets, or possibly end up with the US either in Hawaii or the Pacific coast.
Was thinking that a formal alliance between Germany [+Austria & Turkey], the US and Japan was unlikely but thinking that you have isolated sets of forces from all three powers in the Pacific/Far East you could see them co-operating locally and if the Dutch don't seek to end one of the other wars quickly, on for them generous terms, then it could occur. In which case because Japan is Britain's only formal ally and the US such an important trading partner I'm not sure what London would do. Think they would be quite happy to join a war against the central powers but if their in formal alliance with the other two it becomes very awkward as to which way Britain goes.
Steve
The priority basically is getting rid of bases for raiders first, everything else can be dealt with later on. In a way, the Dutch are like the British in this regard, their shipping is what matters the most. The heart of warfare for them isn't even in major fleet engagements (those are important however), but in ensuring that their commerce can keep going. That's why they also still have convoys and the like. Some of which are even escorted by modern capital ships. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 16, 2018 19:55:23 GMT
Another fine update raunchel . So the war with Germany has begun, I wonder if the Republican will lay siege of Tsingtao, like what the Japanese did in OTL. So we might have a faction made up of the United States, Japan and Germany versus France, Netherlands and maybe in the furure the United Kingdom. Thank you. The Republic will be moving against any German forces and holdings in the area, if only to protect their shipping. And don't forget Russia...
Good to hear. Hopefully on this last bit the lab work doesn't involve anything potentially hazardous does it in case you get too distracted. I don't think its exactly the presentation I recall from before but their got a common origin. Pretty certain there was less about the political infighting over military enlargement prior to the US dow and also about some of Pershing's choices of staff and more about how dependent the US was on allied equipment but the same basic problem of massive expansion from a pretty small base is the core of it. Overall the situation is somewhat worse here for the US. They don't have to go up against the sort of experienced forces of 1917/18 and are fighting at home. However their starting from scratch against an experienced, well equipped and pretty large - I would gather - land power and between politics, economics and geography they have very little chance of getting outside equipment or advice from anywhere else. Plus the fact their fighting at home means they don't really have any time to try and train anyone up and their own small regular forces are being put through the grinder. Plus their losing some of their most important economic areas.
I am wondering if in a short while Britain will offer mediation between the Dutch and both the US and Japan. Waiting a bit to have the Dutch see how big a problem they have in Europe so their more willing to make peace with their other opponents. Working on the basis that Britain doesn't want to see either power lose too heavily and also wants trade with the US to resumes ASAP. The key factor I suspect will be that neither power will be happy with any idea of being forcible disarmed, which leaves them vulnerable to future attacks, let along the Dutch aims to solely control Japanese trade. On the other hand the Dutch will be aware that the US especially will be a potential opponent who is both capable of and likely to rearm to regain lost territories and influence. Possibly some compromise which sets limits on their naval power but their allowed to build up their home defences?
There isn't anything particularly hazardous about it. Of course, most things are rather toxic (that's what you get in biochemistry), but I like to think that I'm fairly skilled by now, and besides, I'm not swallowing anything. I'm not doing this with some of my most 'fun' compounds (not going to say which, that would tell too much about what I'm doing), but I have enough poison on my shelf to kill a city. At least, if you manage to properly feed it to them, which is impossible. It was a fascinating thing to listen to, and I have to admit, I listened to some other lectures afterwards. The numbers alone were downright shocking and I will be making use of that. And, of course, I really pity the Americans. Even in 1917, they couldn't even arm their own men, and that was with at least a partially-built war industry. Based on what I could find, the war (from the Dutch perspective), will be most like a colonial war rather than one between peer powers. That unfortunately will also bring some unpleasantries to the fore. The Brits are really stuck now. They have to deal with their formal ally being at war with the power that is the co-belligerent of their informal allies. The American war also is the first ever war between two democracies, which further complicated matters. The UK also has a strong interest in the Atlantic being at peace, because it is threatening their vital trade and imports, especially with the loss of South Africa and Argentine.
Raunchel
Good to here that Jakoba is OK and nothing too nasty went on in Berlin, which does makes sense in the circumstances. I suspect Wilhelm probably didn't know what was going on as it was a pretty stupid thing to do, and while he was rash I'm not sure he would agree to something like that. Hence a few heads might roll in the navy for the mess created but the German leadership are unlikely to admit their forces were responsible. Probably also since while their still vehemently denying it they have some hope of keeping Britain from joining the war against them.
With Jakoba in Paris that will give an insight on how the French are doing, although shaded of course by French rather than German bias. Also on whether the two powers become formal allies or just associated powers. Mind you at least now the French should have less concern about nitrate supplies.
I'm guessing that Luik is Liege and Delmarva is Delaware? That sounds like potentially a lot of territory for 8 divisions to hold, even with auxiliaries, although given how weak the Americans are at the moment this isn't currently a problem but without further reinforcements because of the war in Europe it could be. Plus supply lines could be vulnerable to sub and possibly light forces attacks although by the sound of it the Dutch are used to convoying in wartime, both for military units and commerce. Which would fit in with the frequent wars with England their used to.
In Europe how well defended are the Dutch borders? Presumably some fortifications at Liege and other places and probably in the north the plans to flood areas to help defend the core areas along the coastal regions. However since their not used to having powerful neighbours they might not be as strong as OTL Liege. Still the Germans have most of their forces already committed elsewhere and if necessary they can call on French support. Plus it does sound like their actually attacking and occupying German territory in the north. This is likely to prompt the Germans to switch forces from other fronts, most likely the Polish one against the Russians.
This situation could mean that Bulgaria decides to stay neutral rather than join the CPs as it could look like their going to go down, possibly soon, although not as quickly I suspect many would expect.
Anyway will be interested to see how things develop. Many thanks for another good chapter.
Steve
It will take a lot for the Germans to admit responsibility. That could only really be done if they are beaten in the war and subjected to a Versailles-style treaty. Or maybe someone could brag about it years later in his memoirs. And get promptly told by the government that he's a liar of course. Jakoba is indeed going to be meeting with some important French figures, and it gives a good opportunity to explore that a little. and of course, to include a little more about how the French are doing (winning, obviously, any day now. Just one more push). Luik indeed is Liege. I just refuse to call it Liege out of principle. Delmarva is the official name of the peninsula that most of Delaware is on. It basically puts the Dutch incredibly close to Washington, with all the effects that will have. The war the Dutch are fighting there is mostly suppressing partisans (including by atrocities, some of which are done by colonial troops with all the effects that will have). Or, to troll the Americans, it's a matter of marching. The Dutch indeed use a convoy system, which is a basic part of their military doctrine. It will certainly be a surprise to the powers in our world who firmly rejected it. The Dutch border security is based on a series of fortresses (like Luik, Maastricht, and a few others), that have been given reinforcements. It however isn't enough to just stop the full might of the German army. The offensive in the north is in Ostfriesland, and basically has units of the Dutch army approaching Wilhelmshaven. So, the Germans really have to react there. This also is a fun area to fight a land war, given the rather high level of the ground water which will be a lot of fun when they have to dig in. Or someone just floods the place of course. Many will now be thinking that the Central Powers will now quickly fall, but, as always, nothing is quick. Especially not with the huge sunk costs that have already ben incurred.
I would expect that Tsingtao and the other German possessions in the Pacific will be attacked although they might prioritise the war against the Japanese and mopping up the Philippines 1st but the areas is now fairly complex. Be interesting what Admiral von Spee does with the German Pacific fleet. Its nowhere near strong enough to oppose the Dutch openly but could be a pain raiding targets, or possibly end up with the US either in Hawaii or the Pacific coast.
Was thinking that a formal alliance between Germany [+Austria & Turkey], the US and Japan was unlikely but thinking that you have isolated sets of forces from all three powers in the Pacific/Far East you could see them co-operating locally and if the Dutch don't seek to end one of the other wars quickly, on for them generous terms, then it could occur. In which case because Japan is Britain's only formal ally and the US such an important trading partner I'm not sure what London would do. Think they would be quite happy to join a war against the central powers but if their in formal alliance with the other two it becomes very awkward as to which way Britain goes.
Steve
The priority basically is getting rid of bases for raiders first, everything else can be dealt with later on. In a way, the Dutch are like the British in this regard, their shipping is what matters the most. The heart of warfare for them isn't even in major fleet engagements (those are important however), but in ensuring that their commerce can keep going. That's why they also still have convoys and the like. Some of which are even escorted by modern capital ships.
Raunchel
Ah biochemistry. So your the lead scientist for the IS bio-warfare department European branch.  Seriously I remember blundering about in a chemistry lab when doing my ) and A levels, which if you know the history of the English education system dates me. Good at the theory but gifted with ten thumbs so never liked the practicals.  Mind you I learnt to use a pipette by the old method, sucking the air out manually, which would probably breach no end of H&S rules nowadays. [With the exception of oxalic acid which we were told was so poisonous they had us using suction bulbs I guess you would call them. Amazing some of the things that stuck in the memory as its nearly 40 years since I was in a lab, other than the computing type.]
To the modern ear the numbers of casualties in WWI can't really be understood. Even someone a bit older like me and with a long interest in military history.  As you say the US are in an even worse situation here as they have no allies to help them, and with no warning time and the enemy invading their core territories their got to throw raw recruits straight into battle without any substantial trained and equipped forces to advise them. The only saving grace is that the Dutch are relatively thin on the ground and operating from some distance away. They might be able to make some attacks on convoys, although mines are probably the best bet, given the Dutch experience with convoys. [Depending on how much they have had to do with resisting air and sub attack especially but even the existence of a convoy can substantially reduce losses, although there will be costs in terms of reduced throughput for the route.]
I'm not sure what's best for Britain although verging towards neutrality but offering their services as mediators in the conflicts with the US and Japan, although I doubt the Dutch would be willing to do that, or moderate their terms until they start to run into problems. Also staying neutral, while it may leave them diplomatically exposed, could not only avoid a murderous war but also provide security for their trade, especially with all the disruption and the different rules the Dutch are using.
The German government may deny it but if the Dutch have actual physical evidence, such as components from the sub, which is clearly German or remains most people will accept the Dutch point of view.
Looking forward to seeing how Jakoba gets on in Paris. It is still strongly Catholic but also a republic so her reactions could be interesting. The French are probably realising by now that the war is going to be long and bloody, although Dutch involvement could well boost [false] optimism of an early victory. Think its definitely going to be a long and quite possibly even bloodier war than OTL. Likely that the CPs will end up losing but suspect, because of their weaker military as opposed to naval force and their distractions with Japan and the US the Dutch aren't going to be as powerful as Britain/Dominions/Empire and a late entering US. Also their homeland is threatened in a way Britain's never was and if the Germans still have a lot of their seige weapons in the region even the most powerful fortresses aren't going to last long without a lot of support.
The HSF can't match the Dutch home fleet but your likely to see a lot of clashes and raids and also sub work, especially given the Dutch approach on merchantmen, which would given an excuse, in German eyes anyway for USW. Although they have to be careful as the bulk of the war will be in the southern N Sea and that's going to involve a lot of British trade as well. Hopefully Britain will [re-]learn from the Dutch the advantages of using convoys, although given the sheer size of the Dutch forces I suspect there will be a high priority on finishing more capital ships, especially since the Dutch seem to be turning them out at a fair rate. A bit surprised at the successes Johan is reporting as I thought the German islands and coastline were pretty heavily fortified, in part because the Germans were obsessed with the idea of a pre-emptive British strike on their fleet. If they are approaching Wilhelmshaven apart from land forces they could find themselves coming under very heavy bombardment from the fleet in port as well, which could ruin anyone's day, although the German fleet, designed for shorter ranged slug-fests didn't have the same elevation as the RN.
Anyway, looking forward to seeing how things develop.
Steve
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Dec 17, 2018 10:02:16 GMT
Thank you. The Republic will be moving against any German forces and holdings in the area, if only to protect their shipping. And don't forget Russia... There isn't anything particularly hazardous about it. Of course, most things are rather toxic (that's what you get in biochemistry), but I like to think that I'm fairly skilled by now, and besides, I'm not swallowing anything. I'm not doing this with some of my most 'fun' compounds (not going to say which, that would tell too much about what I'm doing), but I have enough poison on my shelf to kill a city. At least, if you manage to properly feed it to them, which is impossible. It was a fascinating thing to listen to, and I have to admit, I listened to some other lectures afterwards. The numbers alone were downright shocking and I will be making use of that. And, of course, I really pity the Americans. Even in 1917, they couldn't even arm their own men, and that was with at least a partially-built war industry. Based on what I could find, the war (from the Dutch perspective), will be most like a colonial war rather than one between peer powers. That unfortunately will also bring some unpleasantries to the fore. The Brits are really stuck now. They have to deal with their formal ally being at war with the power that is the co-belligerent of their informal allies. The American war also is the first ever war between two democracies, which further complicated matters. The UK also has a strong interest in the Atlantic being at peace, because it is threatening their vital trade and imports, especially with the loss of South Africa and Argentine. It will take a lot for the Germans to admit responsibility. That could only really be done if they are beaten in the war and subjected to a Versailles-style treaty. Or maybe someone could brag about it years later in his memoirs. And get promptly told by the government that he's a liar of course. Jakoba is indeed going to be meeting with some important French figures, and it gives a good opportunity to explore that a little. and of course, to include a little more about how the French are doing (winning, obviously, any day now. Just one more push). Luik indeed is Liege. I just refuse to call it Liege out of principle. Delmarva is the official name of the peninsula that most of Delaware is on. It basically puts the Dutch incredibly close to Washington, with all the effects that will have. The war the Dutch are fighting there is mostly suppressing partisans (including by atrocities, some of which are done by colonial troops with all the effects that will have). Or, to troll the Americans, it's a matter of marching. The Dutch indeed use a convoy system, which is a basic part of their military doctrine. It will certainly be a surprise to the powers in our world who firmly rejected it. The Dutch border security is based on a series of fortresses (like Luik, Maastricht, and a few others), that have been given reinforcements. It however isn't enough to just stop the full might of the German army. The offensive in the north is in Ostfriesland, and basically has units of the Dutch army approaching Wilhelmshaven. So, the Germans really have to react there. This also is a fun area to fight a land war, given the rather high level of the ground water which will be a lot of fun when they have to dig in. Or someone just floods the place of course. Many will now be thinking that the Central Powers will now quickly fall, but, as always, nothing is quick. Especially not with the huge sunk costs that have already ben incurred. The priority basically is getting rid of bases for raiders first, everything else can be dealt with later on. In a way, the Dutch are like the British in this regard, their shipping is what matters the most. The heart of warfare for them isn't even in major fleet engagements (those are important however), but in ensuring that their commerce can keep going. That's why they also still have convoys and the like. Some of which are even escorted by modern capital ships.
Raunchel
Ah biochemistry. So your the lead scientist for the IS bio-warfare department European branch. Seriously I remember blundering about in a chemistry lab when doing my ) and A levels, which if you know the history of the English education system dates me. Good at the theory but gifted with ten thumbs so never liked the practicals. Mind you I learnt to use a pipette by the old method, sucking the air out manually, which would probably breach no end of H&S rules nowadays. [With the exception of oxalic acid which we were told was so poisonous they had us using suction bulbs I guess you would call them. Amazing some of the things that stuck in the memory as its nearly 40 years since I was in a lab, other than the computing type.]
To the modern ear the numbers of casualties in WWI can't really be understood. Even someone a bit older like me and with a long interest in military history. As you say the US are in an even worse situation here as they have no allies to help them, and with no warning time and the enemy invading their core territories their got to throw raw recruits straight into battle without any substantial trained and equipped forces to advise them. The only saving grace is that the Dutch are relatively thin on the ground and operating from some distance away. They might be able to make some attacks on convoys, although mines are probably the best bet, given the Dutch experience with convoys. [Depending on how much they have had to do with resisting air and sub attack especially but even the existence of a convoy can substantially reduce losses, although there will be costs in terms of reduced throughput for the route.]
I'm not sure what's best for Britain although verging towards neutrality but offering their services as mediators in the conflicts with the US and Japan, although I doubt the Dutch would be willing to do that, or moderate their terms until they start to run into problems. Also staying neutral, while it may leave them diplomatically exposed, could not only avoid a murderous war but also provide security for their trade, especially with all the disruption and the different rules the Dutch are using.
The German government may deny it but if the Dutch have actual physical evidence, such as components from the sub, which is clearly German or remains most people will accept the Dutch point of view.
Looking forward to seeing how Jakoba gets on in Paris. It is still strongly Catholic but also a republic so her reactions could be interesting. The French are probably realising by now that the war is going to be long and bloody, although Dutch involvement could well boost [false] optimism of an early victory. Think its definitely going to be a long and quite possibly even bloodier war than OTL. Likely that the CPs will end up losing but suspect, because of their weaker military as opposed to naval force and their distractions with Japan and the US the Dutch aren't going to be as powerful as Britain/Dominions/Empire and a late entering US. Also their homeland is threatened in a way Britain's never was and if the Germans still have a lot of their seige weapons in the region even the most powerful fortresses aren't going to last long without a lot of support.
The HSF can't match the Dutch home fleet but your likely to see a lot of clashes and raids and also sub work, especially given the Dutch approach on merchantmen, which would given an excuse, in German eyes anyway for USW. Although they have to be careful as the bulk of the war will be in the southern N Sea and that's going to involve a lot of British trade as well. Hopefully Britain will [re-]learn from the Dutch the advantages of using convoys, although given the sheer size of the Dutch forces I suspect there will be a high priority on finishing more capital ships, especially since the Dutch seem to be turning them out at a fair rate. A bit surprised at the successes Johan is reporting as I thought the German islands and coastline were pretty heavily fortified, in part because the Germans were obsessed with the idea of a pre-emptive British strike on their fleet. If they are approaching Wilhelmshaven apart from land forces they could find themselves coming under very heavy bombardment from the fleet in port as well, which could ruin anyone's day, although the German fleet, designed for shorter ranged slug-fests didn't have the same elevation as the RN.
Anyway, looking forward to seeing how things develop.
Steve
Chemistry and biochemistry aren't that hard. You just have to know what you're doing and leave the boring parts to students and technicians And be willing to work at least twelve hours a day of course, but that's just a question of will. Nowadays, using your mouth to pipet is strictly forbidden (and besides, we have these nice electronic devices for those larger amounts), if only because you really don't want to 'accidentally' drink some pathogens, or worse, contaminate your stuff! WW1 levels of casualties are simply stunning. I've done some reading on it, and it's truly mind-numbing. I mean, there were single days where armies lost tens of thousands in deaths. Not wounded, captured, or anything like that, but deaths. The US will at some point be able to fight back, but for now, they're in immense trouble. The more I read and think about it, the worse it basically gets. Their minuteman myth and the like won't mean too much, only that more people will die. This is a war of industry, and industry takes time to get started. They're bleeding horribly, with units that have basically been given a semblance of some sort of uniform and any weapons they can find being thrown into the front. At the same time, the small cadres that were there have mostly been bled white because they too are undermanned, undergunned, and undertrained. The immigrants indeed are a bit of an issue, they now are under occupation, but at least, they're less likely to take up arms. Later on, there will be attacks by torpedo boats, mines, and submarines, but that will take time to get started. The Dutch don't really have much experience with subs or air attacks, but some thought has been given to sub attacks on a higher level. Air attacks are something they saw as forbidden, so they will put any pilots they capture on trial. At least, at first. And of course, these early planes would have been rather vulnerable. That doesn't mean that they can't do damage of course. Subs will take more time, the Americans first have to build them, and then they actually have to train up crews. The Dutch are capable of sending and building up a considerable army, but that will take them time and will never match what the British and Americans combined could bring to the table. Especially because they're dealing with some large distractions overseas. The Frisian Islands campaign really is an attack on the small coastal islands which weren't as heavily fortified, and in this case, they also get attacked from inland. The Dutch are securing them to further protect the northern offensive. This offensive has multiple reasons to it, and not all of them are about taking East Frisia or the like. It also threatens the German Navy in its main base, which will make things more difficult for them and will force the Germans to react (hopefully by sending less forces against Luik. They're not crazy enough to try a naval assault on Wilhelmshaven, because those approaches actually are very well-fortified, just like Heligoland. The Dutch however are planning to bottle up the German fleet, or to force them into a fleet action. There are lots of small clashes in the North Sea, more than in otl, both because the Dutch are closer, but also because they are more aggressive in some ways. But especially because the Dutch light units are all in close range and even have a base in the Ems, which is being fought over. |
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Dec 17, 2018 10:09:49 GMT
Paris, January 2, 1915
Dearest father,
I am truly happy that all of you are well and pray that that remains so. I celebrated the new year with the French president, a truly forceful man who seems to bear a deep hatred of the Germans. It seems that he was born in an area that the Germans have been occupying for decades now.
Anyways, he was delighted when I told him about my meeting with the German emperor, and he said that he would certainly ask our government for my presence at the negotiating of the treaty that we’ll force the Germans to sign. He appeared full of confidence and the next day, he was happy to sign our alliance for the European war. Unfortunately, the French couldn’t be persuaded to join against the North Americans, but they have agreed to a complete trade embargo concerning our overseas enemies.
It however seems that there are plenty of issues with the French. They are quite angry about our possession of the Kales area, which they claim to be part of their country. The French government currently isn’t aiming at gaining those territories, but I fear that in the long term, it will lead to issues. We simply can’t trust our new allies.
I however heard something else that truly shocked me. When speaking to a French general, I found that hundreds of thousands of French soldiers have already died, with many more wounded or missing. To my surprise, he didn’t seem shaken by this, only emboldened. He even claimed that they would soon enough force the Germans back. He however was a little surprised when I told him what the German emperor had told me, but soon enough, countered that the Germans obviously were lying to make themself seem stronger.
Despite all of this, I have also had the opportunity to explore the city of Paris. It truly is one of the most beautiful places I have ever visited, far eclipsing Berlin and even many of our own cities. My guide here is a young lady, Lilianne, the daughter of a senior official of the French foreign service. She has shown me the city, we visited the museums and some of their grandest monuments together.
She told me some pretty shocking things. She herself doesn’t believe in God at all, but far more shocking is that their own president is a secret Catholic! He apparently married his wife in secret, but, of course, it came out.
Earlier today, instructions from The Hague arrived. They ask me to attend a meeting there on the sixth, and I will be leaving Paris soon. I will travel past Antwerpen, and hope to be able to see you or Mother there. There is so much that I have to tell you, and, perhaps more importantly, I truly long to be with our family.
Your loving daughter,
Jakoba
Battlecruiser Vlijt, January 9, 1915
Dearest Jakoba,
I am truly sorry that I couldn’t be there when you visited your mother in Antwerpen. Duty called me to sea. Enemy warships had been sighted leaving port at night, and I moved to intercept them. We fought a minor engagement. It appeared that the enemy battlefleet had sortied in an attempt to bombard Borkum to allow it to be retaken. I believe that they seek to strengthen their flank as our army has taken Aurich and pushed all the way north to Norden.
I encountered the enemy fleet north of Norderney and at long range, opened fire. Naturally, I did not close on the enemy, which had superior numbers and armour. To my surprise, they turned back despite having numbers on their side. On our side, a single destroyer was damaged but at least one of their battleships has been hit, although I don’t know about any damage.
Of course, I shadowed their fleet, but was forced to turn away by an attack from their destroyers of which two were sunk. I remained at sea for several more days, mostly to prevent another such attack while marines took Juist in order to further secure the Ems.
I presume that you have been told about our army in the Americas having forced the Bolivians to surrender, and have now taken a city named Baltimore and have started the attack on the enemy capital. If that has been taken, they are bound to give up the war.
I pray that you will be allowed to return to us and I asked your mother to send you this letter as soon as she has an address where she can reach you.
Your loving father,
Johan Rots
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Post by simon darkshade on Dec 17, 2018 12:20:28 GMT
Running an 8 division army across the Atlantic is no mean logistical feat, considering that a 1918 division required 1000 tons/day on the offensive, or two trains of 50 carriages. Even with convoys, getting a consistent amount of supplies across the Atlantic (3230nm from Rotterdam to Philadelphia is a 14 day journey on the shortest route) is going to take a very heavy escort and a lot of supplies in its own right.
With a metropolitan population of ~30 million, the maximum Dutch mobilisation strength would be somewhere between 3 and 3.6 million, putting it substantially below Italy. This would be further reduced by the needs of a very large fleet from a smaller population base than either Germany or Britain.
That population figure is very impressive; historically, the Netherlands + Belgium had a 1914 GDP of $54 billion in 1990 USD, compared to $226 billion for Britain and $202 billion for Germany. Per capita figures have Belgium in 1913 with $4220, taking the largest Low Country figure, meaning that to put it on a par with Britain and Germany, the Super Netherlands would need a per capita GDP of ~$8400, achieved by the USA in 1942, Switzerland in 1947 and the Netherlands in 1959/60.
It is easy to underestimate American production in WW1, but once they got rolling it provided a foretaste of 1942 and 1943; 1919 plans called for the production of 20,000 artillery pieces alone.
Economically and industrially, the Netherlands may be biting off more than they can chew. If you need any stats, let me know; I have a fair bit on the era.
Nevertheless, you've got an intriguing tale on the go here that shows the chaos that can be caused by a well placed ISOT. I'm also quite a fan of any Dutch Great Power stories/ideas, so keep it up.
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Dec 17, 2018 14:54:24 GMT
Running an 8 division army across the Atlantic is no mean logistical feat, considering that a 1918 division required 1000 tons/day on the offensive, or two trains of 50 carriages. Even with convoys, getting a consistent amount of supplies across the Atlantic (3230nm from Rotterdam to Philadelphia is a 14 day journey on the shortest route) is going to take a very heavy escort and a lot of supplies in its own right. With a metropolitan population of ~30 million, the maximum Dutch mobilisation strength would be somewhere between 3 and 3.6 million, putting it substantially below Italy. This would be further reduced by the needs of a very large fleet from a smaller population base than either Germany or Britain. That population figure is very impressive; historically, the Netherlands + Belgium had a 1914 GDP of $54 billion in 1990 USD, compared to $226 billion for Britain and $202 billion for Germany. Per capita figures have Belgium in 1913 with $4220, taking the largest Low Country figure, meaning that to put it on a par with Britain and Germany, the Super Netherlands would need a per capita GDP of ~$8400, achieved by the USA in 1942, Switzerland in 1947 and the Netherlands in 1959/60. It is easy to underestimate American production in WW1, but once they got rolling it provided a foretaste of 1942 and 1943; 1919 plans called for the production of 20,000 artillery pieces alone. Economically and industrially, the Netherlands may be biting off more than they can chew. If you need any stats, let me know; I have a fake bit on the era. Nevertheless, you've got an intriguing tale on the go here that shows the chaos that can be caused by a well placed ISOT. I'm also quite a fan of any Dutch Great Power stories/ideas, so keep it up. They're mostly running it from South America and bases in the Carribean. They have the good fortune of holding the port of New York, and these Dutch have a bit of a tradition of expeditionary forces. Further expansion of their forces there however will take more time. But, they have an army there, and it should be enough to finally get the Americans to give in. Any day now... It is important to keep in mind that the majority of the Dutch population actually lives overseas, with a total of some 66 million (Yes, there has been a lot of immigration/remigration and shuffling up of genealogies to make white people 'Dutch'. There also are some 82 million Asians, 44 million Blacks, 3 million Arabs and the like of various kinds, 7 million native Americans, 3 million Catholics (including Orthodox), 750k Pacific islanders, 2 million Jews, and almost 30 million Coloureds (mixed race of partial white descent). I made a simple list to keep track of the population per area, using the categories that the Republic would use. This gives a total population of roughly 243 million. I find it hard to determine a good GDP, especially for the empires (any help of course is welcome). So, I used a list of GDPs per capita to determine the GDP per population group per area. Basically, the foremost economic area consists of the South American provinces ($ 178 bln), especially because of the large Dutch population combined with the pretty big nonwhite groups. Next comes the Continental Netherlands ($ 145 bln), and then of course the colonies and South Africa. The total GDP of the Dutch empire is something like 514 billion. They can take on the Americans more or less (slightly lower GDP, but they did deliver a pretty serious blow to the US). But not when they also have to fight anyone else. They have also not invested enough in the army to be able to fight the Germans on their own (and basically, wasted a lot of money building Johan's fancy battleships). The heavy units were concentrated in Europa because that's where they were vulnerable to attempts at blockade and the like. Elsewhere, the fleet is a bit lighter, so to say. The Americans can indeed produce sickening amounts of materials, but their issue is that that takes time. In the long run however, that will lead to a lot of fun. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 17, 2018 15:39:54 GMT
Raunchel
Ah biochemistry. So your the lead scientist for the IS bio-warfare department European branch. Seriously I remember blundering about in a chemistry lab when doing my ) and A levels, which if you know the history of the English education system dates me. Good at the theory but gifted with ten thumbs so never liked the practicals. Mind you I learnt to use a pipette by the old method, sucking the air out manually, which would probably breach no end of H&S rules nowadays. [With the exception of oxalic acid which we were told was so poisonous they had us using suction bulbs I guess you would call them. Amazing some of the things that stuck in the memory as its nearly 40 years since I was in a lab, other than the computing type.]
To the modern ear the numbers of casualties in WWI can't really be understood. Even someone a bit older like me and with a long interest in military history. As you say the US are in an even worse situation here as they have no allies to help them, and with no warning time and the enemy invading their core territories their got to throw raw recruits straight into battle without any substantial trained and equipped forces to advise them. The only saving grace is that the Dutch are relatively thin on the ground and operating from some distance away. They might be able to make some attacks on convoys, although mines are probably the best bet, given the Dutch experience with convoys. [Depending on how much they have had to do with resisting air and sub attack especially but even the existence of a convoy can substantially reduce losses, although there will be costs in terms of reduced throughput for the route.]
I'm not sure what's best for Britain although verging towards neutrality but offering their services as mediators in the conflicts with the US and Japan, although I doubt the Dutch would be willing to do that, or moderate their terms until they start to run into problems. Also staying neutral, while it may leave them diplomatically exposed, could not only avoid a murderous war but also provide security for their trade, especially with all the disruption and the different rules the Dutch are using.
The German government may deny it but if the Dutch have actual physical evidence, such as components from the sub, which is clearly German or remains most people will accept the Dutch point of view.
Looking forward to seeing how Jakoba gets on in Paris. It is still strongly Catholic but also a republic so her reactions could be interesting. The French are probably realising by now that the war is going to be long and bloody, although Dutch involvement could well boost [false] optimism of an early victory. Think its definitely going to be a long and quite possibly even bloodier war than OTL. Likely that the CPs will end up losing but suspect, because of their weaker military as opposed to naval force and their distractions with Japan and the US the Dutch aren't going to be as powerful as Britain/Dominions/Empire and a late entering US. Also their homeland is threatened in a way Britain's never was and if the Germans still have a lot of their seige weapons in the region even the most powerful fortresses aren't going to last long without a lot of support.
The HSF can't match the Dutch home fleet but your likely to see a lot of clashes and raids and also sub work, especially given the Dutch approach on merchantmen, which would given an excuse, in German eyes anyway for USW. Although they have to be careful as the bulk of the war will be in the southern N Sea and that's going to involve a lot of British trade as well. Hopefully Britain will [re-]learn from the Dutch the advantages of using convoys, although given the sheer size of the Dutch forces I suspect there will be a high priority on finishing more capital ships, especially since the Dutch seem to be turning them out at a fair rate. A bit surprised at the successes Johan is reporting as I thought the German islands and coastline were pretty heavily fortified, in part because the Germans were obsessed with the idea of a pre-emptive British strike on their fleet. If they are approaching Wilhelmshaven apart from land forces they could find themselves coming under very heavy bombardment from the fleet in port as well, which could ruin anyone's day, although the German fleet, designed for shorter ranged slug-fests didn't have the same elevation as the RN.
Anyway, looking forward to seeing how things develop.
Steve
Chemistry and biochemistry aren't that hard. You just have to know what you're doing and leave the boring parts to students and technicians And be willing to work at least twelve hours a day of course, but that's just a question of will. Nowadays, using your mouth to pipet is strictly forbidden (and besides, we have these nice electronic devices for those larger amounts), if only because you really don't want to 'accidentally' drink some pathogens, or worse, contaminate your stuff! WW1 levels of casualties are simply stunning. I've done some reading on it, and it's truly mind-numbing. I mean, there were single days where armies lost tens of thousands in deaths. Not wounded, captured, or anything like that, but deaths. The US will at some point be able to fight back, but for now, they're in immense trouble. The more I read and think about it, the worse it basically gets. Their minuteman myth and the like won't mean too much, only that more people will die. This is a war of industry, and industry takes time to get started. They're bleeding horribly, with units that have basically been given a semblance of some sort of uniform and any weapons they can find being thrown into the front. At the same time, the small cadres that were there have mostly been bled white because they too are undermanned, undergunned, and undertrained. The immigrants indeed are a bit of an issue, they now are under occupation, but at least, they're less likely to take up arms. Later on, there will be attacks by torpedo boats, mines, and submarines, but that will take time to get started. The Dutch don't really have much experience with subs or air attacks, but some thought has been given to sub attacks on a higher level. Air attacks are something they saw as forbidden, so they will put any pilots they capture on trial. At least, at first. And of course, these early planes would have been rather vulnerable. That doesn't mean that they can't do damage of course. Subs will take more time, the Americans first have to build them, and then they actually have to train up crews. The Dutch are capable of sending and building up a considerable army, but that will take them time and will never match what the British and Americans combined could bring to the table. Especially because they're dealing with some large distractions overseas. The Frisian Islands campaign really is an attack on the small coastal islands which weren't as heavily fortified, and in this case, they also get attacked from inland. The Dutch are securing them to further protect the northern offensive. This offensive has multiple reasons to it, and not all of them are about taking East Frisia or the like. It also threatens the German Navy in its main base, which will make things more difficult for them and will force the Germans to react (hopefully by sending less forces against Luik. They're not crazy enough to try a naval assault on Wilhelmshaven, because those approaches actually are very well-fortified, just like Heligoland. The Dutch however are planning to bottle up the German fleet, or to force them into a fleet action. There are lots of small clashes in the North Sea, more than in otl, both because the Dutch are closer, but also because they are more aggressive in some ways. But especially because the Dutch light units are all in close range and even have a base in the Ems, which is being fought over.
OK thanks for clarifying. 
With the US as you say the old Minuteman militia idea simply isn't practical nowadays, other than to a degree as a guerilla force in rough terrain, which doesn't really apply where the fighting currently is. They have a lot of industry but converting it to military use, especially the more specialised heavy artillery and other such units will take time. Even longer to then get men anything like adequately trained in their use, especially since they losing people hand over fist and currently they have no really appropriate doctrine for such a war. Even with the Dutch distraction in Europe its going to be a long and bloody meat grinder for the US, unless they manage to make a peace deal that allows them to regroup and rearm but the Dutch will seek to avoid that.
Germany will face problems with its fleet as the Dutch home fleet is markedly larger than its and very close to its base, although a close blockade is still likely to be impractical. The Dutch will want to force a fleet battle because they hope to seriously weaken the HSF so as to free up forces for elsewhere, as well as their probably still concerned about a possible clash with Britain.
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Dec 17, 2018 15:48:33 GMT
Chemistry and biochemistry aren't that hard. You just have to know what you're doing and leave the boring parts to students and technicians And be willing to work at least twelve hours a day of course, but that's just a question of will. Nowadays, using your mouth to pipet is strictly forbidden (and besides, we have these nice electronic devices for those larger amounts), if only because you really don't want to 'accidentally' drink some pathogens, or worse, contaminate your stuff! WW1 levels of casualties are simply stunning. I've done some reading on it, and it's truly mind-numbing. I mean, there were single days where armies lost tens of thousands in deaths. Not wounded, captured, or anything like that, but deaths. The US will at some point be able to fight back, but for now, they're in immense trouble. The more I read and think about it, the worse it basically gets. Their minuteman myth and the like won't mean too much, only that more people will die. This is a war of industry, and industry takes time to get started. They're bleeding horribly, with units that have basically been given a semblance of some sort of uniform and any weapons they can find being thrown into the front. At the same time, the small cadres that were there have mostly been bled white because they too are undermanned, undergunned, and undertrained. The immigrants indeed are a bit of an issue, they now are under occupation, but at least, they're less likely to take up arms. Later on, there will be attacks by torpedo boats, mines, and submarines, but that will take time to get started. The Dutch don't really have much experience with subs or air attacks, but some thought has been given to sub attacks on a higher level. Air attacks are something they saw as forbidden, so they will put any pilots they capture on trial. At least, at first. And of course, these early planes would have been rather vulnerable. That doesn't mean that they can't do damage of course. Subs will take more time, the Americans first have to build them, and then they actually have to train up crews. The Dutch are capable of sending and building up a considerable army, but that will take them time and will never match what the British and Americans combined could bring to the table. Especially because they're dealing with some large distractions overseas. The Frisian Islands campaign really is an attack on the small coastal islands which weren't as heavily fortified, and in this case, they also get attacked from inland. The Dutch are securing them to further protect the northern offensive. This offensive has multiple reasons to it, and not all of them are about taking East Frisia or the like. It also threatens the German Navy in its main base, which will make things more difficult for them and will force the Germans to react (hopefully by sending less forces against Luik. They're not crazy enough to try a naval assault on Wilhelmshaven, because those approaches actually are very well-fortified, just like Heligoland. The Dutch however are planning to bottle up the German fleet, or to force them into a fleet action. There are lots of small clashes in the North Sea, more than in otl, both because the Dutch are closer, but also because they are more aggressive in some ways. But especially because the Dutch light units are all in close range and even have a base in the Ems, which is being fought over.
OK thanks for clarifying.
With the US as you say the old Minuteman militia idea simply isn't practical nowadays, other than to a degree as a guerilla force in rough terrain, which doesn't really apply where the fighting currently is. They have a lot of industry but converting it to military use, especially the more specialised heavy artillery and other such units will take time. Even longer to then get men anything like adequately trained in their use, especially since they losing people hand over fist and currently they have no really appropriate doctrine for such a war. Even with the Dutch distraction in Europe its going to be a long and bloody meat grinder for the US, unless they manage to make a peace deal that allows them to regroup and rearm but the Dutch will seek to avoid that.
Germany will face problems with its fleet as the Dutch home fleet is markedly larger than its and very close to its base, although a close blockade is still likely to be impractical. The Dutch will want to force a fleet battle because they hope to seriously weaken the HSF so as to free up forces for elsewhere, as well as their probably still concerned about a possible clash with Britain.
Yes, that's the basic situation. The Dutch want to force a fleet battle, but know that they can't just assault Wilhelmshaven or the like. So, they need to do it in another way. And right now, that way is by nibbling at the tiny little islands and pushing through Ostfriesland. Which, by the way, was offered to the Dutch by the French before the war began. The Dutch blockade isn't really a close one, they only have scout units that far forward, but it's closer than the British one was. And of course, Johan is having a lot of fun with his fast force, picking at anything that moves into the open. To his surprise, the HSF did withdraw from him instead of trying to fully engage his ships and destroy them. The thing is, the Germans think that the Dutch Home Fleet is close behind, and they don't want to risk losing their whole fleet. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 17, 2018 15:59:08 GMT
Paris, January 2, 1915Dearest father, I am truly happy that all of you are well and pray that that remains so. I celebrated the new year with the French president, a truly forceful man who seems to bear a deep hatred of the Germans. It seems that he was born in an area that the Germans have been occupying for decades now. Anyways, he was delighted when I told him about my meeting with the German emperor, and he said that he would certainly ask our government for my presence at the negotiating of the treaty that we’ll force the Germans to sign. He appeared full of confidence and the next day, he was happy to sign our alliance for the European war. Unfortunately, the French couldn’t be persuaded to join against the North Americans, but they have agreed to a complete trade embargo concerning our overseas enemies. It however seems that there are plenty of issues with the French. They are quite angry about our possession of the Kales area, which they claim to be part of their country. The French government currently isn’t aiming at gaining those territories, but I fear that in the long term, it will lead to issues. We simply can’t trust our new allies. I however heard something else that truly shocked me. When speaking to a French general, I found that hundreds of thousands of French soldiers have already died, with many more wounded or missing. To my surprise, he didn’t seem shaken by this, only emboldened. He even claimed that they would soon enough force the Germans back. He however was a little surprised when I told him what the German emperor had told me, but soon enough, countered that the Germans obviously were lying to make themself seem stronger. Despite all of this, I have also had the opportunity to explore the city of Paris. It truly is one of the most beautiful places I have ever visited, far eclipsing Berlin and even many of our own cities. My guide here is a young lady, Lilianne, the daughter of a senior official of the French foreign service. She has shown me the city, we visited the museums and some of their grandest monuments together. She told me some pretty shocking things. She herself doesn’t believe in God at all, but far more shocking is that their own president is a secret Catholic! He apparently married his wife in secret, but, of course, it came out. Earlier today, instructions from The Hague arrived. They ask me to attend a meeting there on the sixth, and I will be leaving Paris soon. I will travel past Antwerpen, and hope to be able to see you or Mother there. There is so much that I have to tell you, and, perhaps more importantly, I truly long to be with our family. Your loving daughter, Jakoba Battlecruiser Vlijt, January 9, 1915Dearest Jakoba, I am truly sorry that I couldn’t be there when you visited your mother in Antwerpen. Duty called me to sea. Enemy warships had been sighted leaving port at night, and I moved to intercept them. We fought a minor engagement. It appeared that the enemy battlefleet had sortied in an attempt to bombard Borkum to allow it to be retaken. I believe that they seek to strengthen their flank as our army has taken Aurich and pushed all the way north to Norden. I encountered the enemy fleet north of Norderney and at long range, opened fire. Naturally, I did not close on the enemy, which had superior numbers and armour. To my surprise, they turned back despite having numbers on their side. On our side, a single destroyer was damaged but at least one of their battleships has been hit, although I don’t know about any damage. Of course, I shadowed their fleet, but was forced to turn away by an attack from their destroyers of which two were sunk. I remained at sea for several more days, mostly to prevent another such attack while marines took Juist in order to further secure the Ems. I presume that you have been told about our army in the Americas having forced the Bolivians to surrender, and have now taken a city named Baltimore and have started the attack on the enemy capital. If that has been taken, they are bound to give up the war. I pray that you will be allowed to return to us and I asked your mother to send you this letter as soon as she has an address where she can reach you. Your loving father, Johan Rots
Raunchel
Some interesting nuggets here. The fact that the continentals on our world are used to much larger losses than the Dutch are and the deep divisions between Catholic and secular groups in France, neither for different reasons being that likely to be popular with the Dutch.
Not surprised that the French refused to go to war with the US. Even if they did their present commitment would mean it was only a token action as the US no longer has the forces to threaten French possessions in the Americas - which looking again at the map are already in Dutch hands I think apart from the two islands off Newfoundland and the French are fully committed against the Germans so I don't think the Dutch are losing anything at the moment.
If the alliance works I don't think they need fear too much from the French about Calais/Kales as they will be too exhausted by the war and also will have time to accept that the people in the region have been Dutch for probably a few centuries and think of themselves as such.
Didn't realise they were at war with Bolivia as well as Chile but the former has always been rather a weak military power, being heavily defeated in OTL by Chile - even when allied with Peru and in the 1930's by Paraguay. The US will fight hard for Washington but I doubt they will agree to a cease-fire when it falls, at least not at anything like the terms the Dutch will be proposing. I wonder where they will move their capital to? Somewhere more central, say along the Mississippi or north of the Ohio would probably be more secure but could go even further west.
Not surprised the Germans turned away even if they thought they might have superior numbers. They know their own fleet is smaller and also less lightly armed although whether the Dutch have any of the problems Britain had with shells, powder instability and bad practice on removing flash protection devices, or other shortcomings to counter this I don't know. However they can't really afford to lose too much especially since they have to consider the French and Russian fleets as well.
Steve
PS Just seen the last part of this ninjed by your last post. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 17, 2018 16:05:54 GMT
The thing is, the Germans think that the Dutch Home Fleet is close behind, and they don't want to risk losing their whole fleet. So no Battle of Jutland type engagement for now between the Germans and the Republic. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 17, 2018 16:33:26 GMT
Running an 8 division army across the Atlantic is no mean logistical feat, considering that a 1918 division required 1000 tons/day on the offensive, or two trains of 50 carriages. Even with convoys, getting a consistent amount of supplies across the Atlantic (3230nm from Rotterdam to Philadelphia is a 14 day journey on the shortest route) is going to take a very heavy escort and a lot of supplies in its own right. With a metropolitan population of ~30 million, the maximum Dutch mobilisation strength would be somewhere between 3 and 3.6 million, putting it substantially below Italy. This would be further reduced by the needs of a very large fleet from a smaller population base than either Germany or Britain. That population figure is very impressive; historically, the Netherlands + Belgium had a 1914 GDP of $54 billion in 1990 USD, compared to $226 billion for Britain and $202 billion for Germany. Per capita figures have Belgium in 1913 with $4220, taking the largest Low Country figure, meaning that to put it on a par with Britain and Germany, the Super Netherlands would need a per capita GDP of ~$8400, achieved by the USA in 1942, Switzerland in 1947 and the Netherlands in 1959/60. It is easy to underestimate American production in WW1, but once they got rolling it provided a foretaste of 1942 and 1943; 1919 plans called for the production of 20,000 artillery pieces alone. Economically and industrially, the Netherlands may be biting off more than they can chew. If you need any stats, let me know; I have a fake bit on the era. Nevertheless, you've got an intriguing tale on the go here that shows the chaos that can be caused by a well placed ISOT. I'm also quite a fan of any Dutch Great Power stories/ideas, so keep it up. They're mostly running it from South America and bases in the Carribean. They have the good fortune of holding the port of New York, and these Dutch have a bit of a tradition of expeditionary forces. Further expansion of their forces there however will take more time. But, they have an army there, and it should be enough to finally get the Americans to give in. Any day now... It is important to keep in mind that the majority of the Dutch population actually lives overseas, with a total of some 66 million (Yes, there has been a lot of immigration/remigration and shuffling up of genealogies to make white people 'Dutch'. There also are some 82 million Asians, 44 million Blacks, 3 million Arabs and the like of various kinds, 7 million native Americans, 3 million Catholics (including Orthodox), 750k Pacific islanders, 2 million Jews, and almost 30 million Coloureds (mixed race of partial white descent). I made a simple list to keep track of the population per area, using the categories that the Republic would use. This gives a total population of roughly 243 million. I find it hard to determine a good GDP, especially for the empires (any help of course is welcome). So, I used a list of GDPs per capita to determine the GDP per population group per area. Basically, the foremost economic area consists of the South American provinces ($ 178 bln), especially because of the large Dutch population combined with the pretty big nonwhite groups. Next comes the Continental Netherlands ($ 145 bln), and then of course the colonies and South Africa. The total GDP of the Dutch empire is something like 514 billion. They can take on the Americans more or less (slightly lower GDP, but they did deliver a pretty serious blow to the US). But not when they also have to fight anyone else. They have also not invested enough in the army to be able to fight the Germans on their own (and basically, wasted a lot of money building Johan's fancy battleships). The heavy units were concentrated in Europa because that's where they were vulnerable to attempts at blockade and the like. Elsewhere, the fleet is a bit lighter, so to say. The Americans can indeed produce sickening amounts of materials, but their issue is that that takes time. In the long run however, that will lead to a lot of fun.
Raunchel
OK thanks that gives a better idea of what the empire contains. Probably I've got it wrong but I make it ~238 million on those figure? Tried adding it up several times but can't see anything I'm missing. Just to clarify the 66M Dutch include those in the Netherlands itself? If so roughly how many are there please? Also you mention both Catholics and native Americans and I assume that the non-Dutch in S America were at one stage at least partially Catholic because of Spanish and Portuguese rule but have most of them been converted to Calvinism?
Of those figures presumably the Dutch and the Coloureds are available for military use, along with possibly some of the other groups as local militia or in rare occasions elsewhere. That gives nearly 100M along with possibly the Jews and Catholics which would push it just over that figure. That's a hell of a lot of potential manpower but its spread about a fair bit and not sure how loyal/trusted the coloureds might be in all cases if their still denied full equality. Plus while their in a much better position than the US, even without them being invaded, they have a markedly smaller military I suspect probably more like Britain's so it would take time to fully moblise this.
Overall a potential super-power, and pretty much one in naval terms but could take some effort to get it fully moblised if the society isn't used to that? Plus there is always the situation of do any of the overseas Dutch see themselves as more S Americans or Africans than Dutch Europeans? Basically like the British dominions looking to increase their self-government from the homeland? Possibly less so as they have direct representation in the 'imperial' parliament.
Working from the Caribbean and S America will be a lot easier than working from Europe to supply the forces in the US but its still going to be a significant commitment although with its world wide empire the Netherlands, like Britain OTL has a good degree of experience in this. Possibly an equivalent of the 2nd Boer War for Britain, although without the significant population in the Boer states that would welcome the British.
You mention that the Dutch have New York and other ports, but factors here could depend on what condition its in and how helpful or not the local population are in handling the port and other local facilities for transporting and storing supplies and equipment. Especially on the railways you could see some sabotage, either physical or even by mis-direction to hinder supply movement as well as the need to capture, maintain and use trains, carriages, tracks etc. Not going to be a killer but expecting some friction here.
Sorry to ask so many questions but a fascinating TL.
Steve
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Also on whether the two powers become formal allies or just associated powers. Mind you at least now the French should have less concern about nitrate supplies.
Seriously I remember blundering about in a chemistry lab when doing my ) and A levels, which if you know the history of the English education system dates me. Good at the theory but gifted with ten thumbs so never liked the practicals. 
Mind you I learnt to use a pipette by the old method, sucking the air out manually, which would probably breach no end of H&S rules nowadays. [With the exception of oxalic acid which we were told was so poisonous they had us using suction bulbs I guess you would call them. Amazing some of the things that stuck in the memory as its nearly 40 years since I was in a lab, other than the computing type.] 
As you say the US are in an even worse situation here as they have no allies to help them, and with no warning time and the enemy invading their core territories their got to throw raw recruits straight into battle without any substantial trained and equipped forces to advise them. The only saving grace is that the Dutch are relatively thin on the ground and operating from some distance away. They might be able to make some attacks on convoys, although mines are probably the best bet, given the Dutch experience with convoys. [Depending on how much they have had to do with resisting air and sub attack especially but even the existence of a convoy can substantially reduce losses, although there will be costs in terms of reduced throughput for the route.]
