mullauna
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Post by mullauna on Dec 4, 2017 0:42:29 GMT
Even those who oppose N III in France will be horribly reactionary by 2017 standards, so what kind of government can the EU establish to replace Napoleon. I doubt that many 2017 people will tolerate the 1870'ers views of the role of women.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 4, 2017 3:46:41 GMT
Even those who oppose N III in France will be horribly reactionary by 2017 standards, so what kind of government can the EU establish to replace Napoleon. I doubt that many 2017 people will tolerate the 1870'ers views of the role of women. The EU might make a deal with Napoleon III.
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Mar 15, 2018 13:31:56 GMT
Haha... a 1870-france swapped with the modern one... this would cause this: 1.) confusion, a lot communication lines broken, airports vanished, rail connections broken (think about a TGV trying to enter french area without electrification, or ships trying to reach french ports and running aground or get shot on 2.) Realisation: quickly - propably the first or second day later, the european neighbours would recognize that the france they had known had gone, replaced by a - for 2018-standards, full racist, radical, brutal regime, in that people see non-white-french as lesser persons. They are VERY intolerant, so gay tourists kissing each other (after they tried to cross the borders) could get in harms way. By the way, border control... that could cause a shock, if people try to move on streets that end exactly at the border, for example the rhine-bridges could get destroyed if only the german side is existing. People who try to cross the channel by train would die (the moment the old france jump in the rail route is replaced by massive stone and mud (french border side). Another point is the gigantic shock, the full panic in france. Remember, that france of 1870 is less developted as north korea or any subsahara-african country. Airplanes, helicopters, cars - do not exist. So every airplane trying to land in france would cause a mass panic. The second the politicans of the european countries recognize they speak with the original french dictator, they will alarm their armed forces (basically a tank batallion could conquer the whole of france... say a belgian tank brigade do it)and start a diplomatic mission to explain the situation to the near-panic frenchmen. If the french - in utterly wrong national pride - start to attack their german neighbour (for them it was short before the unification war of 1870, suddenly the arch enemy sit at the border, full of wonders (cars, hifi, computers, airplanes), so you could expect the french military demanding to strike fast "for the empire". Or they wet their trousers.. who knows? in 1870, i see a declaration of war, shootings at the border and the try to attack the "hun". Even the actual Bundeswehr could defeat this france, the UN would try to avoid a conflict. But the fallout of one of the big economies having replaced by some 5th world backyard racist group of politicans cause for sure a crash in economics. Germany will be hit hard, they have strong ties with france, econoically... now suddenly gone. The french in other countries (modern people) will face ugly opportunities. Either go back and be "aliens" in old style france or live in the civilized world and fight the evil empire. For sure the western world, the EU, would know that this france need "reeducation", propably one generation. The kids could grow up in a democratic modern style, but all in an age of 40 or older are a huge problem. You need all the "alien" frenchmen and people from belgium, the netherlands, germany and spain, propably also italy who could speak and teach french, also a lot africans who have french ties (if they still exist) to reeducate the population. the Napoleon the 3rd need to get removed from power, also ALL politicans and ALL Military leadership. Every single one. They are not compatible with the modern world. Basically you have a forced occupation (peacefully, with no or very limited destructions) and an modern industrialisation, financed by the UN and the EU, to build up france to the levels of the modern world. So around 10 years to make em "survivers" of the new world, 10-20 more years to recognize how things work and then 20 years to retake their place in the economic world (minus nukes). But to build up modern infrastructure to this france will cost a lot time, money and hard work.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 15, 2018 14:37:53 GMT
Haha... a 1870-france swapped with the modern one... this would cause this: 1.) confusion, a lot communication lines broken, airports vanished, rail connections broken (think about a TGV trying to enter french area without electrification, or ships trying to reach french ports and running aground or get shot on 2.) Realisation: quickly - propably the first or second day later, the european neighbours would recognize that the france they had known had gone, replaced by a - for 2018-standards, full racist, radical, brutal regime, in that people see non-white-french as lesser persons. They are VERY intolerant, so gay tourists kissing each other (after they tried to cross the borders) could get in harms way. By the way, border control... that could cause a shock, if people try to move on streets that end exactly at the border, for example the rhine-bridges could get destroyed if only the german side is existing. People who try to cross the channel by train would die (the moment the old france jump in the rail route is replaced by massive stone and mud (french border side). Another point is the gigantic shock, the full panic in france. Remember, that france of 1870 is less developted as north korea or any subsahara-african country. Airplanes, helicopters, cars - do not exist. So every airplane trying to land in france would cause a mass panic. The second the politicans of the european countries recognize they speak with the original french dictator, they will alarm their armed forces (basically a tank batallion could conquer the whole of france... say a belgian tank brigade do it)and start a diplomatic mission to explain the situation to the near-panic frenchmen. If the french - in utterly wrong national pride - start to attack their german neighbour (for them it was short before the unification war of 1870, suddenly the arch enemy sit at the border, full of wonders (cars, hifi, computers, airplanes), so you could expect the french military demanding to strike fast "for the empire". Or they wet their trousers.. who knows? in 1870, i see a declaration of war, shootings at the border and the try to attack the "hun". Even the actual Bundeswehr could defeat this france, the UN would try to avoid a conflict. But the fallout of one of the big economies having replaced by some 5th world backyard racist group of politicans cause for sure a crash in economics. Germany will be hit hard, they have strong ties with france, econoically... now suddenly gone. The french in other countries (modern people) will face ugly opportunities. Either go back and be "aliens" in old style france or live in the civilized world and fight the evil empire. For sure the western world, the EU, would know that this france need "reeducation", propably one generation. The kids could grow up in a democratic modern style, but all in an age of 40 or older are a huge problem. You need all the "alien" frenchmen and people from belgium, the netherlands, germany and spain, propably also italy who could speak and teach french, also a lot africans who have french ties (if they still exist) to reeducate the population. the Napoleon the 3rd need to get removed from power, also ALL politicans and ALL Military leadership. Every single one. They are not compatible with the modern world. Basically you have a forced occupation (peacefully, with no or very limited destructions) and an modern industrialisation, financed by the UN and the EU, to build up france to the levels of the modern world. So around 10 years to make em "survivers" of the new world, 10-20 more years to recognize how things work and then 20 years to retake their place in the economic world (minus nukes). But to build up modern infrastructure to this france will cost a lot time, money and hard work. The French do have basses across the world, so you will have to look to the highest 2018 member of the French government not being in France to form a Government in Exile in London.
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Mar 15, 2018 16:35:40 GMT
Haha... a 1870-france swapped with the modern one... this would cause this: 1.) confusion, a lot communication lines broken, airports vanished, rail connections broken (think about a TGV trying to enter french area without electrification, or ships trying to reach french ports and running aground or get shot on 2.) Realisation: quickly - propably the first or second day later, the european neighbours would recognize that the france they had known had gone, replaced by a - for 2018-standards, full racist, radical, brutal regime, in that people see non-white-french as lesser persons. They are VERY intolerant, so gay tourists kissing each other (after they tried to cross the borders) could get in harms way. By the way, border control... that could cause a shock, if people try to move on streets that end exactly at the border, for example the rhine-bridges could get destroyed if only the german side is existing. People who try to cross the channel by train would die (the moment the old france jump in the rail route is replaced by massive stone and mud (french border side). Another point is the gigantic shock, the full panic in france. Remember, that france of 1870 is less developted as north korea or any subsahara-african country. Airplanes, helicopters, cars - do not exist. So every airplane trying to land in france would cause a mass panic. The second the politicans of the european countries recognize they speak with the original french dictator, they will alarm their armed forces (basically a tank batallion could conquer the whole of france... say a belgian tank brigade do it)and start a diplomatic mission to explain the situation to the near-panic frenchmen. If the french - in utterly wrong national pride - start to attack their german neighbour (for them it was short before the unification war of 1870, suddenly the arch enemy sit at the border, full of wonders (cars, hifi, computers, airplanes), so you could expect the french military demanding to strike fast "for the empire". Or they wet their trousers.. who knows? in 1870, i see a declaration of war, shootings at the border and the try to attack the "hun". Even the actual Bundeswehr could defeat this france, the UN would try to avoid a conflict. But the fallout of one of the big economies having replaced by some 5th world backyard racist group of politicans cause for sure a crash in economics. Germany will be hit hard, they have strong ties with france, econoically... now suddenly gone. The french in other countries (modern people) will face ugly opportunities. Either go back and be "aliens" in old style france or live in the civilized world and fight the evil empire. For sure the western world, the EU, would know that this france need "reeducation", propably one generation. The kids could grow up in a democratic modern style, but all in an age of 40 or older are a huge problem. You need all the "alien" frenchmen and people from belgium, the netherlands, germany and spain, propably also italy who could speak and teach french, also a lot africans who have french ties (if they still exist) to reeducate the population. the Napoleon the 3rd need to get removed from power, also ALL politicans and ALL Military leadership. Every single one. They are not compatible with the modern world. Basically you have a forced occupation (peacefully, with no or very limited destructions) and an modern industrialisation, financed by the UN and the EU, to build up france to the levels of the modern world. So around 10 years to make em "survivers" of the new world, 10-20 more years to recognize how things work and then 20 years to retake their place in the economic world (minus nukes). But to build up modern infrastructure to this france will cost a lot time, money and hard work. The French do have basses across the world, so you will have to look to the highest 2018 member of the French government not being in France to form a Government in Exile in London. Yes, and to be smart, there will be the "liberation" of the mind-suppressed old-french, the political leaders of the military forces that enforce the defeat of the "Old army" will be french... so hopefully the old french recognize how hopeless it is (the comune will be happy - because this world is very similar to what they want, die-hard-militarists and rightwinger will be disappointed, because the Grande Nation is reduced to the second EU-power - again - no Nukes allowed for the "new" france. Wait - if the french nuclear subs are outside france and they are in the real world, they could keep em... but i have no clue if they could use their nukes without their military command. That is propably top secret) I see hundreds or thousends of feminist activist pouring in the country to "liberate" suppressed woman! What a fun to see (from outside)... as i tried to explain, that france will need quite some time to recover/readjust itself to the modern world.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 15, 2018 16:36:38 GMT
that france will need quite some time to recover/readjust itself to the modern world. With ore without a certain Napoleon III on the throne.
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Mar 15, 2018 17:56:02 GMT
that france will need quite some time to recover/readjust itself to the modern world. With ore without a certain Napoleon III on the throne. Without - Napoleon was instable, a dictator/absolute monarch. No European state that could wipe out all of the french army (basically every single one, including Vaduz, Andorra and Monaco) would allow him to sit on his throne. He could abdict and leave the country, same is true for every single politican/military leader. These 60+ age people are incompatible with modern western europe. The foreign-french will know this, the other european countries, too. So they all have to leave, kindly, but they leave. If they try to resist they end imprisoned. With 4-5 years the most (99%) french of the old france will see how much better their country will be in the modern world. But it cost time to adjust these "half apes" to modern standards (half ape = people who have technological stoneage-minds - no insult against french as a general quote - switch UK, germany, USA, russia, what ever state - from 1870 to modern times and the same would be true)
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 15, 2018 20:37:43 GMT
The French do have basses across the world, so you will have to look to the highest 2018 member of the French government not being in France to form a Government in Exile in London. Yes, and to be smart, there will be the "liberation" of the mind-suppressed old-french, the political leaders of the military forces that enforce the defeat of the "Old army" will be french... so hopefully the old french recognize how hopeless it is (the comune will be happy - because this world is very similar to what they want, die-hard-militarists and rightwinger will be disappointed, because the Grande Nation is reduced to the second EU-power - again - no Nukes allowed for the "new" france. Wait - if the french nuclear subs are outside france and they are in the real world, they could keep em... but i have no clue if they could use their nukes without their military command. That is propably top secret)I see hundreds or thousends of feminist activist pouring in the country to "liberate" suppressed woman! What a fun to see (from outside)... as i tried to explain, that france will need quite some time to recover/readjust itself to the modern world. That opens up one nasty possibility. I think there's either one or two subs on partrol at any point, at least that was the situation during the cold war. What would be their sealed orders if all contact with France was lost? I doubt they would actually launch a nuclear strike as its no longer the cold war and they would be able to pick up radio signs from the rest of the world but it could be a bit harder. Not sure what would happen to the subs as they couldn't be maintained long without external support. Which might not be available as most powers might want to remove France as a nuclear power, at least while the vast majority of French citizens are so different from the rest of modern Europe plus since their pretty much in house French designs even support from Britain or the US would be more difficult. As I said in an earlier post mullauna suggested this ISOT included the French empire, which would cause a hell of a lot of additional problems as the French overseas departments have also been thrown backwards and what colonial empire they had then which would include at the least large parts of Algeria and Senegal. There might be modern French expats and travellers in other countries but there's no French overseas lands to provide a nucleus to help modernise France. One other thought. Europe thinks its got a migration problem now. What would happen in this situation when there are about 30-40 million French who are suddenly surrounded by a much richer and more advanced continent that offers far more for people than 1870's France can possibly do. As well as pay massively more for work that many French peasants and factory workers would find pretty easy and very short working houses. I suspect that the EU would quickly decide that 1870's France was NOT a part of the EU, arguing this because it never applied for membership and because it meets few/none of the requirements for membership of the EU.
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Mar 15, 2018 21:48:20 GMT
Yes, and to be smart, there will be the "liberation" of the mind-suppressed old-french, the political leaders of the military forces that enforce the defeat of the "Old army" will be french... so hopefully the old french recognize how hopeless it is (the comune will be happy - because this world is very similar to what they want, die-hard-militarists and rightwinger will be disappointed, because the Grande Nation is reduced to the second EU-power - again - no Nukes allowed for the "new" france. Wait - if the french nuclear subs are outside france and they are in the real world, they could keep em... but i have no clue if they could use their nukes without their military command. That is propably top secret)I see hundreds or thousends of feminist activist pouring in the country to "liberate" suppressed woman! What a fun to see (from outside)... as i tried to explain, that france will need quite some time to recover/readjust itself to the modern world. That opens up one nasty possibility. I think there's either one or two subs on partrol at any point, at least that was the situation during the cold war. What would be their sealed orders if all contact with France was lost? I doubt they would actually launch a nuclear strike as its no longer the cold war and they would be able to pick up radio signs from the rest of the world but it could be a bit harder. Not sure what would happen to the subs as they couldn't be maintained long without external support. Which might not be available as most powers might want to remove France as a nuclear power, at least while the vast majority of French citizens are so different from the rest of modern Europe plus since their pretty much in house French designs even support from Britain or the US would be more difficult. As I said in an earlier post mullauna suggested this ISOT included the French empire, which would cause a hell of a lot of additional problems as the French overseas departments have also been thrown backwards and what colonial empire they had then which would include at the least large parts of Algeria and Senegal. There might be modern French expats and travellers in other countries but there's no French overseas lands to provide a nucleus to help modernise France. One other thought. Europe thinks its got a migration problem now. What would happen in this situation when there are about 30-40 million French who are suddenly surrounded by a much richer and more advanced continent that offers far more for people than 1870's France can possibly do. As well as pay massively more for work that many French peasants and factory workers would find pretty easy and very short working houses. I suspect that the EU would quickly decide that 1870's France was NOT a part of the EU, arguing this because it never applied for membership and because it meets few/none of the requirements for membership of the EU. Interesting points. a.) cheap workers - basically all french workers are "cheap", compared to the surronding european countries. For sure they need training, but basically they work HARD for little money (in the beginning). Basically the EU need some restrictions so large companies can´t plunder the new french working force. But in the same time the specialists from france have gone. That is bad. Think about the airbus industries... lots of specialists from france.. or the ESA.. not good! b.) nuclear subs... i think they will see the problem and offer their power to the exile french, later the "modern" french government. Some VERY problematic point - no french scientists are able to maintanance the french nuclear subs or nukes. Propably a french-british or french-american (not in the moment!) joint venture? Maybe some german-french agreements? I could see the french exile government will be based in germany, so they ask germany for support (not to get the nukes, but to keep em workable, the actual political situation will benefit the EU if the french nukes and nuclear subs will stay in EU hands... with UK dropping out these are the ONLY nuclear weapons now. Hard choices...
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 15, 2018 21:52:56 GMT
That opens up one nasty possibility. I think there's either one or two subs on partrol at any point, at least that was the situation during the cold war. What would be their sealed orders if all contact with France was lost? I doubt they would actually launch a nuclear strike as its no longer the cold war and they would be able to pick up radio signs from the rest of the world but it could be a bit harder. Not sure what would happen to the subs as they couldn't be maintained long without external support. Which might not be available as most powers might want to remove France as a nuclear power, at least while the vast majority of French citizens are so different from the rest of modern Europe plus since their pretty much in house French designs even support from Britain or the US would be more difficult. As I said in an earlier post mullauna suggested this ISOT included the French empire, which would cause a hell of a lot of additional problems as the French overseas departments have also been thrown backwards and what colonial empire they had then which would include at the least large parts of Algeria and Senegal. There might be modern French expats and travellers in other countries but there's no French overseas lands to provide a nucleus to help modernise France. One other thought. Europe thinks its got a migration problem now. What would happen in this situation when there are about 30-40 million French who are suddenly surrounded by a much richer and more advanced continent that offers far more for people than 1870's France can possibly do. As well as pay massively more for work that many French peasants and factory workers would find pretty easy and very short working houses. I suspect that the EU would quickly decide that 1870's France was NOT a part of the EU, arguing this because it never applied for membership and because it meets few/none of the requirements for membership of the EU. Interesting points. a.) cheap workers - basically all french workers are "cheap", compared to the surronding european countries. For sure they need training, but basically they work HARD for little money (in the beginning). Basically the EU need some restrictions so large companies can´t plunder the new french working force. But in the same time the specialists from france have gone. That is bad. Think about the airbus industries... lots of specialists from france.. or the ESA.. not good! b.) nuclear subs... i think they will see the problem and offer their power to the exile french, later the "modern" french government. Some VERY problematic point - no french scientists are able to maintanance the french nuclear subs or nukes. Propably a french-british or french-american (not in the moment!) joint venture? Maybe some german-french agreements? I could see the french exile government will be based in germany, so they ask germany for support (not to get the nukes, but to keep em workable, the actual political situation will benefit the EU if the french nukes and nuclear subs will stay in EU hands... with UK dropping out these are the ONLY nuclear weapons now. Hard choices... Only one Nuke submarine of the French Navy is on patrol at each given time, so it most likely can go to French Guiana where i think the French government in exile will be located until the problems on mainland france have been resolved. Also the question is raised, what about the French permanent membership of the UN security council.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 15, 2018 22:29:11 GMT
Interesting points. a.) cheap workers - basically all french workers are "cheap", compared to the surronding european countries. For sure they need training, but basically they work HARD for little money (in the beginning). Basically the EU need some restrictions so large companies can´t plunder the new french working force. But in the same time the specialists from france have gone. That is bad. Think about the airbus industries... lots of specialists from france.. or the ESA.. not good! b.) nuclear subs... i think they will see the problem and offer their power to the exile french, later the "modern" french government. Some VERY problematic point - no french scientists are able to maintanance the french nuclear subs or nukes. Propably a french-british or french-american (not in the moment!) joint venture? Maybe some german-french agreements? I could see the french exile government will be based in germany, so they ask germany for support (not to get the nukes, but to keep em workable, the actual political situation will benefit the EU if the french nukes and nuclear subs will stay in EU hands... with UK dropping out these are the ONLY nuclear weapons now. Hard choices... Only one Nuke submarine of the French Navy is on patrol at each given time, so it most likely can go to French Guiana where i think the French government in exile will be located until the problems on mainland france have been resolved. Also the question is raised, what about the French permanent membership of the UN security council. I think that will go. There is no basis for France to retain the seat as its nature, government and population has totally changed. It could end up with a new permanent member with India possibly being the most likely candidate but I can't see it staying with France.
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Mar 16, 2018 8:28:55 GMT
Only one Nuke submarine of the French Navy is on patrol at each given time, so it most likely can go to French Guiana where i think the French government in exile will be located until the problems on mainland france have been resolved. Also the question is raised, what about the French permanent membership of the UN security council. I think that will go. There is no basis for France to retain the seat as its nature, government and population has totally changed. It could end up with a new permanent member with India possibly being the most likely candidate but I can't see it staying with France. Nah, with UK leaving the EU (as OTL), they will either switch it to the EU (as a member) or it goes to germany. They tried a few years ago but it failed because Mr.B (little Mussolini) from Italy blew it up. The problem with this is - as long as the UN stay to its rules, france could keep its veto rights. (it could veto anything to change it ) Even italy would not want to have the European Union no real power in the UN. So either it goes to the EU (if possible) or germany (as the strongest EU-member).
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 16, 2018 10:21:02 GMT
I think that will go. There is no basis for France to retain the seat as its nature, government and population has totally changed. It could end up with a new permanent member with India possibly being the most likely candidate but I can't see it staying with France. Nah, with UK leaving the EU (as OTL), they will either switch it to the EU (as a member) or it goes to germany. They tried a few years ago but it failed because Mr.B (little Mussolini) from Italy blew it up. The problem with this is - as long as the UN stay to its rules, france could keep its veto rights. (it could veto anything to change it ) Even italy would not want to have the European Union no real power in the UN. So either it goes to the EU (if possible) or germany (as the strongest EU-member). Not so sure. There would still be two western and three 'white' powers so I think there would be strong pressure for someone from somewhere else, either Indian or possibly Brazil. Japan is another option of course but with China we already have one east Asian power. Egypt might be an outside chance as both a Muslim and technically an African power so it would tick two boxes. Plus I think the EU as a collective group would be too complex as how would the delegation be selected and what rules would they vote by? If it ever became a fully unified single state that would be a different matter but I doubt that will be happening any time soon, if at all. There is the technicality of France having a veto and there might still be a French delegation in New York but would they still be viewed as identical with the 1870 France that now exists?
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Mar 16, 2018 11:19:18 GMT
Nah, with UK leaving the EU (as OTL), they will either switch it to the EU (as a member) or it goes to germany. They tried a few years ago but it failed because Mr.B (little Mussolini) from Italy blew it up. The problem with this is - as long as the UN stay to its rules, france could keep its veto rights. (it could veto anything to change it ) Even italy would not want to have the European Union no real power in the UN. So either it goes to the EU (if possible) or germany (as the strongest EU-member). Not so sure. There would still be two western and three 'white' powers so I think there would be strong pressure for someone from somewhere else, either Indian or possibly Brazil. Japan is another option of course but with China we already have one east Asian power. Egypt might be an outside chance as both a Muslim and technically an African power so it would tick two boxes. Plus I think the EU as a collective group would be too complex as how would the delegation be selected and what rules would they vote by? If it ever became a fully unified single state that would be a different matter but I doubt that will be happening any time soon, if at all. There is the technicality of France having a veto and there might still be a French delegation in New York but would they still be viewed as identical with the 1870 France that now exists? Well, the main problem is: The EU is still the most powerfull (economically) construct. With UK leaving they would have no real impact in the UN. So really, either they get the french "Veto" or - as a replacement FOR the EU (propably with some laws changed in germany so that germany act here for the EU) germany. You could discuss the problem "Veto" at all, that is something strange and unjust. But if you change the Veto-stuff, then it is either the EU or germany, nothing else. If they try to give it to some other country, then the EU would try to keep it french. There would be a lot of pressure, manipulations etc. to do that. If UK had stood in the EU i could see your path, but with them leaving - no way.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 16, 2018 11:25:25 GMT
Not so sure. There would still be two western and three 'white' powers so I think there would be strong pressure for someone from somewhere else, either Indian or possibly Brazil. Japan is another option of course but with China we already have one east Asian power. Egypt might be an outside chance as both a Muslim and technically an African power so it would tick two boxes. Plus I think the EU as a collective group would be too complex as how would the delegation be selected and what rules would they vote by? If it ever became a fully unified single state that would be a different matter but I doubt that will be happening any time soon, if at all. There is the technicality of France having a veto and there might still be a French delegation in New York but would they still be viewed as identical with the 1870 France that now exists? Well, the main problem is: The EU is still the most powerfull (economically) construct. With UK leaving they would have no real impact in the UN. So really, either they get the french "Veto" or - as a replacement FOR the EU (propably with some laws changed in germany so that germany act here for the EU) germany. You could discuss the problem "Veto" at all, that is something strange and unjust. But if you change the Veto-stuff, then it is either the EU or germany, nothing else. If they try to give it to some other country, then the EU would try to keep it french. There would be a lot of pressure, manipulations etc. to do that. If UK had stood in the EU i could see your path, but with them leaving - no way. Well the EU would want that but I could see a lot of the rest of the world not having it stay in Europe as that would keep 4 out of 5 seats 'white' so not sure how that would work out but there's bound to be a hell of a mess, not to mention quite a scrap over the issue. This also presumes that the EU can bother with that while the crisis of what to do about France and all the economic and other disruption the event will cause.
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