The Future Kaiser Wilhelm II Dies Young

That means his brother will be named Kaiser Wilhelm III or Kaiser Albert I, also looking at his Wikipedia page i discover that he had little in common with his brother, the German Emperor. He lacked, for example, William II's erratic nature and egotism. The prince was truly popular in Northern Germany, and on account of his humble and open manner was beloved by those under his command. On foreign travels, he was a good diplomat, who, unlike his brother, was able to strike the right tone.

He might be a good choice to lead Germany, better than his brother.

Also, for the record, I think that Kaiser Heinrich will focus on building extensive defensive lines (indeed, think of a German Maginot Line) on Germany's western border before he will do this on Germany's eastern border. After all, if Germany successfully builds extensive defensive lines all of the way from its Swiss border to the its Dutch border (as in, to the Atlantic Ocean), then France is probably going to become much more unwilling to go to war with Germany, even with both Russia and Italy on its side. After all, in such a scenario, France would almost certainly suffer extremely high casualties and possible failure if it would try either attacking Germany directly or attacking Germany through Belgium, the Netherlands, and/or Luxembourg. Meanwhile, attacking Germany through Switzerland would almost certainly be an extreme disaster for France since France would almost certainly suffer extremely high casualties and possible failure due to both Switzerland's extremely mountainous terrain and the extremely well-armed nature of Switzerland's citizenry (indeed, doesn't almost everyone in Switzerland own guns and have militia/military training?).

The key word here is "tries," though; after all, "trying" certainly isn't the same thing as "succeeding."

Interesting scenario futurist. If war broke out and especially with Germany having such a strong enconomy and powerful defences I find it hard to see their bloc not winning such a war. Italy would be economically weak, especially in the face of probable allied naval superiority and the Austrians have a very strong defensive position. Russia would be isolated even more than OTL being opposed to rather than allied to Britain and Japan. Even France is likely to both see heavy losses in attacks on German defences and British attacks on their trade, colonies and possibly coastal target.

Not sure whether Heinrich would build such detailed defences. Its alien to the Prussia military tradition plus expanding them to the North sea would mean basically saying to the Belgium and Dutch they would be left hanging in the event of a French attack. However definitely powerful defences on the French border and appropriate parts of the border with Russia.

Also, here is how I can imagine World War I breaking out in this TL:

-1929: German Kaiser Heinrich dies due to cancer. He is succeeded as the German Kaiser by his (non-hemophiliac) son Friedrich, who takes the regal name Friedrich IV. (In this TL, since he is the German Kaiser, Heinrich is going to name his children differently than he did in our TL.)

-1930: Russia, France, and Italy hold a war council. In this war council, they conclude that their alliance is now sufficiently strong to win a quick victory against both Austria-Hungary and Germany and that thus if an opportunity to wage war on these countries emerges (even at the risk of also fighting Britain) in the next ten years, they should swiftly seize this opportunity rather than allowing this opportunity to escape. In this war council, France and Italy also agree to a Russian proposal to try increasing ethnic and nationalistic agitation in both Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire (which is allied to Germany, Britain, Austria-Hungary, et cetera).

-1935: In large part as a result of Russo-Franco-Italian agitation, an Arab revolt breaks out in the Ottoman Empire. Quickly seizing this moment, Russia, France, and Italy quickly publish stories (some true, some embellished, and some outright made-up) of Ottoman atrocities against Arabs during this conflict.

-1936: As the Ottoman Empire is gaining the upper hand in this conflict, the Russo-Franco-Italian alliance decides to offer the Ottoman Empire an ultimatum: The Ottoman Empire can either withdraw from all of its Arab-majority areas and give them independence, or the Russo-Franco-Italian alliance will declare war on the Ottoman Empire. The Ottoman leaders ask both Kaiser Friedrich IV of Germany and Britain's government about how exactly they should respond to this Russo-Franco-Italian ultimatum; both Kaiser Friedrich and Britain's government advise a rejection of this ultimatum. Thus, the Ottoman Empire rejects this ultimatum. Afterwards, Russia, France, and Italy all declare war on the Ottoman Empire. In response to this, Britain, Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Japan all declare war on Russia, France, and Italy. Thus, World War I has now begun:

-1936 (continued): In this TL, Russia adopts a Schlieffen-style plan during World War I; to elaborate on this, it places most of its troops on its western borders in an attempt to quickly knock both Austria-Hungary and Germany out of World War I. Meanwhile, with the exception of a token offensive force against the Ottoman Empire (in order to help the Arabs who are rebelling there), Russia is playing defense on its other fronts for the time being. Anyway, once Russia attacks Austria-Hungary using overwhelming force, the Austro-Hungarian Army is significantly weakened over the first several months of this war. Thus, Germany has to step it to help its Austro-Hungarian allies, which it turns means that Germany now has less troops to protect its own borders. Meanwhile, in Germany, Russia attacks on an extremely broad front from Allestein to Posen using overwhelming force. While German defenses initially slow the pace and limit the scope of the Russian advance, Austria-Hungary's semi-collapse causes Germany to realize that it cannot simultaneously protect all of its own territory and protect its ally Austria-Hungary. Thus, Germany engages in a retreat from both East Prussia and Pomerania in order to avoid having its troops there be encircled and captured by the Russians. These German troops are subsequently sent to either Austria-Hungary or Silesia. Meanwhile, after making mincemeat out of Austria-Hungary's army, Russia successfully breaks through the Carpathian Mountains and races towards Budapest. However, once Russia approaches Budapest, it stops in order to strengthen its own logistical situation as well as to help its ally Serbia (who by now entered World War I on Russia's side) capture Bosnia and Croatia. Eventually, though, it becomes clear to both Germany and Austria-Hungary that Russia is aiming to encircle and to besiege Budapest (which is actually very possible for Russia to do since it has already captured most of Slovakia and since Russian and Serbian troops have now captured both Bosnia and Croatia) rather than to launch a headlong attack into Budapest. Thus, due to their own troop limitations, Germany and Austria-Hungary withdraw from Budapest and thus allow Russo-Serbian forces to capture it. Afterwards, the withdrawn troops are sent to Vienna and Bohemia in order to strengthen the German and Austro-Hungarian troop presence there. Meanwhile, on the Western Front, France invades Belgium but is stopped by German-Belgian forces in its tracks near Brussels. Afterwards, a temporary stalemate emerges in the West. As for Italy, Austria-Hungary's weakening allows a combination of Italian, Serbian, and Russian troops to successfully capture Slovenia, thus creating a land connection between the armies of Russia, Serbia, Italy, and France. Also, for the record, Germany successfully halts the Russians in Silesia, including in Upper Silesia.

-1937: After its capture of Budapest and the improvement in its logistical situation, Russia now feels sufficiently confident to attack Vienna. Meanwhile, France is hoping to cut off and encircle the German Army in Belgium by launching a surprise attack through the Ardennes and then by advancing all of the way up to the southern coast of the Netherlands. Also, as a decoy, Russian, Serbian, and Italian troops are going to attack the Austrian city of Graz. Once Germany becomes aware of this surprise French attack through the Ardennes, Germany does two things: 1) somewhat fortify its own presence in the Ardennes; 2) prepare its own "revolving-door" plan in regards to this. Once France launches its Ardennes offensive, its successfully gets as far as the outskirts of Liege before German and Belgian forces stop this French advance. Meanwhile, Germany and the BEF (British Expeditionary Force) launch a counter-offensive which successfully captures the French Channel ports and the French industrial city of Lille. Afterwards, Germany and the BEF stage a decoy attack towards Paris while their main attack is towards Sedan (the so-called "revolving door"). With the help of German and British air power, Germany and the BEF successfully capture Sedan and prevent the French forces in the Ardennes from escaping and breaking out. In other words, Germany and the BEF have now successfully encircled a huge amount of French forces in the Ardennes. After some additional fighting, the French forces in the Ardennes capitulate and surrender to the German and BEF forces which are stationed there. This defeat is a huge, but not a fatal, blow for France. Indeed, the threat of Russia in the East prevents Germany and the BEF from exploiting their victory over France to try capturing Paris. In the east, Germany and Austria-Hungary quickly withdraw from Graz (and thus allowed Graz to be captured by Russian, Serbian, and Italian forces) due to their (accurate) belief that the main battle in the East would be over Vienna. In Vienna, German and Austro-Hungarian forces successfully manage to defeat Russian, Serbian, and Italian forces. After its victory in the Ardennes (with its "revolving door" plan), Germany is able to send some of its own troops from the West over to the East. With these additional troops, Germany and Austria-Hungary are able to launch a counter-offensive against Russia which causes German and Austro-Hungarian troops to advance towards Budapest. Meanwhile, in the other sectors of the war, Russia's almost exclusively defensive strategy (in order to be able to provide overwhelming force for offensive warfare against both Austria-Hungary and Germany, both of which Russia falsely believed that it and its allies could quickly knocked out of the war) is failing. In the Caucasian sector, the Ottoman Army and colonial British troops (from Egypt, India, et cetera) have made significant inroads into the Caucasus by now--specifically by capturing both Yerevan and Tiflis (Tbilisi). Meanwhile, in the Asian/Siberian/Pacific sector, Japan has already captured not only northern Sakhalin and the Kamchatka Peninsula, but also as much of Siberia that its logistics and logistical situation would allow. By this point in time, Russia, France, and Italy have all come to believe that, other than an outright defeat, a compromise peace is the only realistic option.

-1938: In an effort to strengthen its position in any compromise peace that might emerge, Russia uses overwhelming force to invade Silesia (which is well-defended by Germany). While Russia initially manages to achieve some success and even to encircle and besiege Breslau, the Austro-Hungarian defenses in the Sudeten Mountains prove to be too difficult for Russia to successfully break through. Afterwards, with the help of a newly built large-scale British Army, Germany and Austria-Hungary successfully manage to break the Russian siege of Breslau and to kick the Russians out of all of Silesia. Afterwards, the initiative in this war is firmly on the side of Britain, Germany, Austria-Hungary, and their allies. Taking the initiative following their victory in Silesia, Britain, Germany, and Austria-Hungary launch a successful attack towards Budapest and successfully besiege Budapest. After failed Russian attempts to break the siege of Budapest, Budapest falls and surrenders to Britain, Germany, and Austria-Hungary. Afterwards, Russia, France, and Italy jointly ask the Anglo-German alliance for a return to the status quo ante bellum--an offer that the Anglo-German alliance swiftly and bluntly rejects. Meanwhile, Russia withdraws some of its troops from Europe in order to fortify its defenses in Baku, realizing that the fall of Baku would be a devastating blow to Russia's and its allies' war effort(s).

-1939: Their efforts at compromise rejected, France and Italy (with Russia's approval) very reluctantly launch unrestricted submarine warfare (USW) against Britain. However, unrestricted submarine warfare fails to bring Britain to its knees and only significantly provokes the U.S., thus causing the U.S. to enter World War I on the side of the Anglo-German alliance. Meanwhile, capitalizing on their victory in Budapest, Britain, Germany, and Austria-Hungary successfully recapture the Austrian city of Graz and launch an invasion of eastern Italy through Slovenia. While the Anglo-German alliance successfully captures northern Italy, the Apennines halt the Anglo-German advance for the time being. Meanwhile, with the help of recently arrived U.S. troops, the Anglo-German alliance launches a successful offensive in eastern Germany; indeed, this offensive results in the Russians being pushed back all of the way back to the Vistula River.

-1940: This year, the Anglo-German alliance (with extremely large numbers of American troops helping them, of course) stages several offensives all along the entire front in the East (while standing still in both France and Italy). In the north, Russian forces are not only pushed out of East Prussia, but also pushed as far back as the outskirts of Riga. Meanwhile, in the center, Russian forces are pushed out of all Austro-Hungarian territory and out of Russian Poland. In the south, Russian, Serbian, and Italian forces are pushed out of Croatia and Bosnia and the Anglo-German alliance also successfully manages to capture Belgrade (Serbia's capital). Meanwhile, in the Caucasian (Caucasus) sector, the Anglo-German alliance (again with extremely large numbers of American troops helping them, of course) launches a successful large-scale attack on Baku, breaks through the Russian defenses there, successfully besieges Baku, and successfully forces Baku to capitulate and surrender after several months of failed Russian attempts to relieve the siege of Baku. As a result of all of these defeats, Russia descends into revolution and Russian Tsar Nicholas II is overthrown. Afterwards, Russia quickly sues for peace and signs an armistice (a de facto surrender, in this case) with the Anglo-German alliance shortly afterwards. After all of this, the Anglo-German alliance quickly launches a successful large-scale offensive against France and another successful large-scale offensive against Italy. Both France and Italy, seeing the writing on the wall, follow Russia's lead and sign an armistice (again, a de facto surrender) with the Anglo-German alliance shortly afterwards.

Indeed, does all of this sound realistic?

Also, if so, exactly what will the post-World War I peace terms look like in this TL?

Any thoughts on this?

  Didn't you know?  He converted to Judaism and moved to Jerusalem.

Aug 19, 2016 0:19:36 GMT 1 futurist said:




Futurist

Trying to put a few quick replies together. My responses in red

2. Frankly, in my honest opinion, the two main questions here are these:

A. Are the Russo-Franco-Italian alliance able to quickly knock out (using overwhelming force on their own part, of course) both Germany and Austria-Hungary out of the war?

I would say not given the probable balance of population, industrial strength and military organisation. The former will significantly favour the Russian bloc but the latter's the German bloc, using the name of the primary power in each alliance for simplicity.

B. Is Britain willing to provide extremely large numbers of troops to help Germany and its other allies (Austria-Hungary, et cetera) fight the Russo-Franco-Italian alliance?

It would depend on the circumstances but, while alien to most of Britain's history we did it in WWI and I suspect there would be the willingness to do so here. Its likely to take ~12-18 months as it did in 1914 before there is a very large British army, Although with less of a threat of immediate collapse for our main allies you might not see the core of the peacetime professional army bled so white so it might be possible a little sooner.

One related situation here might be the status of the dominions and India. The latter might well have dominion status itself now and could at least initially be unwilling to join the conflict depending on the internal political situation in India.

IMHO, the only way that the Russo-Franco-Italian alliance can win this war is either by quickly knocking both Austria-Hungary and Germany out of the war before Britain is able to provide a large number of troops to help them out or to somehow have Britain (and the U.S., obviously) avoid sending a large number of troops to Europe throughout this entire war.

Also, here is another question for you--do you think that the Russo-Franco-Italian alliance is likely to do something to severely anger the U.S. and thus to cause the U.S. to enter World War I on the Anglo-German side?

I think that an increasingly isolated France might well do as you suggest in your TL. Attacking through the the neutral states and then using USW. Its suitable for a weaker naval power but likely to give the same result. Britain may be less vulnerable to such pressure with alliances with a powerful German-Austrian bloc and easier access to neutral areas such as Scandinavia.

In addition to this, when do you think that World War I is likely to break out in this TL? After all, I certainly don't think that the Russo-Franco-Italian alliance will consider themselves to be sufficiently strong to fight the Anglo-German-Austro-Hungarian-Ottoman-Japanese alliance in either the 1910s or the 1920s!

It depends on how the war breaks out. You assume a deliberately planned conflict but it could come from an accident and a period of tension that takes events outside the control of the politicians and leaders.

4. Against Italy? Perhaps. Against Russia? Probably not--at least not in the very north.

Sorry I meant against the Italians in the Alps. Austria, with a reformed army and society is still going to be tough to crack in getting through the Carpathians and weight of numbers can only take the Russians so far. However, while possibly not as far as you suggest, I would expect the Russians to be able to fight their way through the Mts in time, but think its going to be costly.


5. True, but Russia will also likely have an additional 15+ years of industrialization, economic development, and military modernization under its belt in this TL.

True but it depends on how much reform of society they get because without that the Russians will continue to be handicapped by a poorly educated and divided society. [Which is likely to be true, albeit to a lesser degree, for Austria and Italy.


6. Completely agreed.

Don't forget that as long as Britain and allies dominate the seas then while Russia has Baku where will France and Italy get oil from? This might not be too significant if armies are still basically slightly advanced from 1914 and motorisation is minimal, although by 1938 this is unlikely. However its going to be crippling for their air force and navy, which will restrict their other military activities while Italy especially is likely to be forced to make peace soon, especially if as in your scenario they see a good chunk of their northern lands occupied.

7. Well, do you think that Kaiser Heinrich would choose to go to war in the 1910s and use the Schlieffen Plan instead? After all, the Schlieffen Plan appears to be the epitome of Prussian military tradition--specifically a plan to achieve quick and decisive victory using overwhelming military force!

I would hope not, especially as it would make British support more difficult. It is in the Prussian military tradition but if Germany did take such an approach I wouldn't suspect it would occur before the 1920's. Before then, especially with Britain and Japan as allies, Germany should be confident enough not to feel they need to attack their enemies. Also it sounds very alien to the mentality of both Kaiser Heinrich and the more social Germany that he is developing.

8. True. Indeed, perhaps it would be wiser from both a political perspective and from a logistical perspective to avoid building such extensive defenses on Germany's borders with Belgium, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands. After all, in addition to the political factors, logistically speaking, it would probably be better for Germany to contain the French advance along a relatively narrow front line in Belgium than to have German soldiers be stationed in an extremely long and extremely extensive defensive line which extends all of the way up to the Atlantic Ocean. Indeed, manning such an extensive defensive line will probably require a lot of German troops!

I was thinking very much of the example of the French with the Maginot Line and suspecting similar reasons will apply. Not sure that prolonging the line to the North Sea would be that costly in terms of manpower as the basic idea behind defences is it reduces the garrison needed to defend a front but it would tie up troops to man such fortifications which are lost unless and until the enemy attacks them.


9. Completely agreed. Also, Germany will probably encourage its allies (Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, et cetera) to likewise build such extensive defenses whenever they think that it is necessary.

There is less scope here because the front is somewhat longer but in particular positions this could be useful. Especially on the Carpathians against the main expected Russian attack and in the Alps against the Italians the Austrians have good natural defences which they built upon. Their more likely to be vulnerable from say Romania joining the Russian bloc as that greatly extends the front, especially with Serbia also again them. However your likely to see Bulgaria on their side I suspect given their differences with the Serbs.


Also, in addition to all of this, here are several additional points:

1. If Kaiser Heinrich still marries Princess Irene in this TL, then there is certainly a risk that Heinrich's son(s) will have hemophilia. (Indeed, 2 out of Heinrich's 3 sons had hemophilia in our TL. ) Indeed, if Heinrich's eldest son has hemophilia in this TL (just like in our TL), then Heinrich will probably need to remove his eldest son from the line of succession to the German throne (since it would probably be too risky for Germany to have a Kaiser who is more concerned about his own survival than about actually running the country). (Yes, Russian Tsar Nicholas II didn't do this in our TL; however, presumably unlike Henrich, Nicholas appears to have been a bit of a dunce.) Thankfully, though, since Princess Irene doesn't appear to have been as crazy and emotional as her younger sister (Tsarina) Alexandra (Alix) was, the risk of a German Rasputin appearing in the German court in this TL appears to be pretty low.

This is definitely a point to consider although I'm not really clear why/how hemophilia appeared so suddenly in Victoria's children and seems to have largely been removed since.

I think even if the German heir was afflicted between their greater sophistication and Henrich's character its unlikely that a Rasputin type figure would be tolerated.


3. If Kaiser Heinrich has some daughters with the hemophilia gene in this TL, then Europe is probably going to have even more hemophiliac royalty than it actually did in real life. After all, Kaiser Heinrich's daughters will almost certainly marry other European royalty and thus will have the opportunity to pass down their hemophilia gene (if they themselves actually have such a gene, that is).

Agreed!

4. Due to the butterfly effect, it is certainly very possible that Russian Tsar Nicholas II will have at least one healthy (as in, non-hemophiliac) son in this TL. In turn, this means that there might be less worrying at the Russian royal court than there was in our TL. Of course, if Nicholas has at least one son with hemophilia in this TL, then we probably still see Rasputin and/or other shady figures eventually appear and acquire extremely large influence in the Russian royal court.

Agreed

5. With a more cooperative and liberal German Kaiser, radical socialism might be less popular in Germany than it was in our TL.

Again I agree. With scope for steady moderate reform there will be less incentive for more extreme methods to be considered.

6. Kaiser Heinrich is probably going to do more about the German genocide in Namibia than Wilhelm did in our TL. Indeed, I would think that a decent Kaiser such as Heinrich would be appalled by this genocide (in spite of the racist and imperialist mentality that almost any German Kaiser during this time will have) and thus would probably be more willing to demand investigations of this genocide and sufficiently harsh punishments for those Germans who were involved in this genocide.

This is a possibility, although given the culture across the western world I'm not so sure a great deal would be done here as in other western atrocities.

7. I think that Kaiser Heinrich will avoid outright transforming Germany into a British-style constitutional monarchy in this TL but will nevertheless try his utmost best to cooperate with the German Reichstag as much as possible and to try fulfilling their various demands and passing various laws that are popular among German Reichstag members.

Agreed, although it would probably come sooner or later.

8. I think that, in this TL, a fatalistic feeling might still eventually develop in Germany about the need to fight the Franco-Russian-Italian alliance sooner rather than later. Indeed, while Kaiser Heinrich would probably try to contain such feelings among his generals and ministers and among the general German public, even Kaiser Heinrich (and his successor(s)) might eventually come to the conclusion that, since war might be inevitable, it is better to fight this war sooner rather than later (as long as Britain actually agrees with this, that is).

This might be the case although it depends on how strong the enemy, which will basically mean Russia look.

9. Since Heinrich spent his career in the Navy (rather than in the Army) in our TL, perhaps Kaiser Heinrich (in this TL) would be more willing to promote things such as technological development than Wilhelm was in our TL. Indeed, Kaiser Heinrich could work with the German Reichstag and with the German military in order to try fighting out how Germany can accelerate its pace of technological development and technological innovation. In turn, this might mean that, among other things, Germany's military could have a lot of new and modern technological gadgets to "play with" in this TL--especially by the time that World War I breaking out is actually a realistic prospect/possibility in this TL.

Think this is quite likely. Which might prompt a bit of a power struggle between the traditionalists who emphasis doctrine and training and gadgeteers. This could be useful in prompting new ideas provided its kept within limits but could have some nasty effects

10. If Austro-Hungarian Crown Prince Rudolf has a son rather than a daughter in 1883 in this TL (the PoD for this TL is 1880 or earlier, which in turn certainly makes this very possible), then Franz Ferdinand probably never becomes the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne(s). Plus, in this TL, in 1889 (as in, after Crown Prince Rudolf commits suicide), Austro-Hungarian Emperor Franz Joseph has a five-year-old grandson whom he has 25+ years (after all, in this TL, Franz Joseph is probably going to die 25+ years after 1889--as in, in 1914 or later, just like he did in our TL) to shape, educate, and transform to his liking.

That might be very bad for Austria as I'm not sure about Rudolf but if he still commits suicide Franz Joseph could have far too much influence on the young heir. Franz Ferdinand had his faults but he did seem willing to face up to the Hungarian nobles and bring the Slavs into a more equal role and I think both are necessary for the empire to not decline further and probably collapse.


Anyway, any thoughts on everything that I wrote here, Steve?


A few other points:
a) In your scenario I think you were too pessimistic about how Austria, with German support, would hold up against the Russia attacks. Unless the latter showed a clear edge on say armoured/motorised warfare or possibly flanking the main defences by attacking through a friendly Romania.

b) I suspect Serbia is likely to find Bulgaria opposed to it which could well help Austria defend in the south as I doubt the Serbs would have a major offensive ability. Especially if there has been reform which reduces the power of the Magyar nobility which will strengthen the loyalty of many Slavs to the empire.

c) I suspect also that it would be the western allies, especially Italy, that would falter before Russia, especially if the latter has developed as suggested. Italy would have the weaker economy, be very vulnerable to allied naval power and the cutting of imports and coastal shipping, plus both it and France are likely to face problems with oil and possibly other vital imports.

d) One big bonus from a liberal Germany and an aggressive Russia, for the former is that its likely Germany and the Poles are likely to come to terms in support of a Polish state carved out of mainly Russian lands.

e) What happens in China and the far east could be important as well. If China has some stable development it could be becoming a medium sized regional power or if it stays unstable it could lure Russia and Japan especially into conflict over influence or outright control there.

f) For your TL I would say that it would take the US at least 18 months minimum to build up a significant army in the modern period and doubt they would be fighting much against the Russians while France and Italy are in the war.