futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 20, 2016 2:04:40 GMT
What if the 1991 Soviet coup plotters would have chickened out at the last minute and refused to launch a coup attempt?
Would a slightly reduced Soviet Union (as in, minus the Baltic countries, Georgia, et cetera) have survived to the present-day in this scenario?
Indeed, any thoughts on this?
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 22, 2016 7:29:09 GMT
Anyone?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 22, 2016 14:00:38 GMT
What if the 1991 Soviet coup plotters would have chickened out at the last minute and refused to launch a coup attempt? Would a slightly reduced Soviet Union (as in, minus the Baltic countries, Georgia, et cetera) have survived to the present-day in this scenario? Indeed, any thoughts on this? You mean have it still called the Soviet Union. |
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jun 22, 2016 14:13:32 GMT
What if the 1991 Soviet coup plotters would have chickened out at the last minute and refused to launch a coup attempt? Would a slightly reduced Soviet Union (as in, minus the Baltic countries, Georgia, et cetera) have survived to the present-day in this scenario? Indeed, any thoughts on this? It's possible. There were plans to transform the Soviet Union into a Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics that was far more decentralized and liberal. If there is no coup attempt, said plans might have succeeded. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 22, 2016 14:22:40 GMT
What if the 1991 Soviet coup plotters would have chickened out at the last minute and refused to launch a coup attempt? Would a slightly reduced Soviet Union (as in, minus the Baltic countries, Georgia, et cetera) have survived to the present-day in this scenario? Indeed, any thoughts on this? It's possible. There were plans to transform the Soviet Union into a Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics that was far more decentralized and liberal. If there is no coup attempt, said plans might have succeeded. You mean the Union of Sovereign States |
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jun 22, 2016 14:24:20 GMT
It's possible. There were plans to transform the Soviet Union into a Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics that was far more decentralized and liberal. If there is no coup attempt, said plans might have succeeded. You mean the Union of Sovereign StatesThat name is a later name of the proposal I discussed. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 22, 2016 14:28:42 GMT
That name is a later name of the proposal I discussed. Yes you are correct the new nation was to be called the Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics first but it was changed to Union of Sovereign States, this never worked out and the only thing that came from this proposal was the Commonwealth of Independent States. |
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jun 22, 2016 14:30:45 GMT
That name is a later name of the proposal I discussed. Yes you are correct the new nation was to be called the Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics first but it was changed to Union of Sovereign States, this never worked out and the only thing that came from this proposal was the Commonwealth of Independent States. My impression was that the CIS was supposed to be more centralized than it ultimately turned out to be. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 22, 2016 14:39:32 GMT
Yes you are correct the new nation was to be called the Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics first but it was changed to Union of Sovereign States, this never worked out and the only thing that came from this proposal was the Commonwealth of Independent States. My impression was that the CIS was supposed to be more centralized than it ultimately turned out to be. Mikhail Gorbachev, the president of the Soviet Union who in OTL wanted to hold a referendum to preserve the Union as the Union of Sovereign States. but the Communist Party hardliners attempted coup came in the way and thus the republics declared their independence fearing another coup, but with no coup the referendum can be held and might be passed if the republics want to be part of a new smaller version of the Soviet Union but who of course will be called the Union of Sovereign States. |
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 22, 2016 21:32:25 GMT
Yes you are correct the new nation was to be called the Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics first but it was changed to Union of Sovereign States, this never worked out and the only thing that came from this proposal was the Commonwealth of Independent States. My impression was that the CIS was supposed to be more centralized than it ultimately turned out to be. In Russia's view? Yes, very possibly. In Ukraine's view? No, I don't think so. Of course, it is certain worth noting that the charter of the CIS said this: www.dipublico.org/100617/charter-establishing-the-commonwealth-of-independent-states-cis/"The Commonwealth is not a state and does not hold supranational powers." Thus, Ukraine's position appears to have been more in tune with the letter of the CIS.  |
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 22, 2016 23:12:29 GMT
What if the 1991 Soviet coup plotters would have chickened out at the last minute and refused to launch a coup attempt? Would a slightly reduced Soviet Union (as in, minus the Baltic countries, Georgia, et cetera) have survived to the present-day in this scenario? Indeed, any thoughts on this? It's possible. There were plans to transform the Soviet Union into a Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics that was far more decentralized and liberal. If there is no coup attempt, said plans might have succeeded. Completely agreed. After all, I find it hard to believe that an independence referendum in Ukraine would have passed at all in late 1991 or sometime in 1992 without this prior Soviet coup attempt. Indeed, if Ukraine is actually willing to commit to a new union, then so is Russia and the Soviet Union avoids collapsing (though some of the peripheral SSRs will almost certainly still secede from the Soviet Union). |
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Post by spanishspy on Jun 23, 2016 1:22:08 GMT
It's possible. There were plans to transform the Soviet Union into a Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics that was far more decentralized and liberal. If there is no coup attempt, said plans might have succeeded. Completely agreed. After all, I find it hard to believe that an independence referendum in Ukraine would have passed at all in late 1991 or sometime in 1992 without this prior Soviet coup attempt. Indeed, if Ukraine is actually willing to commit to a new union, then so is Russia and the Soviet Union avoids collapsing (though some of the peripheral SSRs will almost certainly still secede from the Soviet Union). Generally, the Central Asian republics were not too peeved with Moscow, as were Belarus and Azerbaijan. A restricted union would lose the Baltics, Moldova, Georgia, and Armenia, but retain the rest. I can see several Autonomous Republics becoming full members of the Union as well. |
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 23, 2016 1:30:21 GMT
Completely agreed. After all, I find it hard to believe that an independence referendum in Ukraine would have passed at all in late 1991 or sometime in 1992 without this prior Soviet coup attempt. Indeed, if Ukraine is actually willing to commit to a new union, then so is Russia and the Soviet Union avoids collapsing (though some of the peripheral SSRs will almost certainly still secede from the Soviet Union). 1. Generally, the Central Asian republics were not too peeved with Moscow, as were Belarus and Azerbaijan. 2. A restricted union would lose the Baltics, Moldova, Georgia, 3. and Armenia, but retain the rest. 4. I can see several Autonomous Republics becoming full members of the Union as well. 1. Completely agreed. Indeed, in early 1991, even in Ukraine, only Galicia and Kiev voted against the new Union Treaty:  2. Completely agreed. 3. For the time being, Yes, but if Azerbaijan will continue to be able to draw on the resources of the Soviet Union in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict/War, then we might see a switch between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Specifically, Armenia might reenter the Soviet Union while Azerbaijan might withdraw from the Soviet Union afterwards (since Azerbaijan probably isn't going to want to be in a union together with Armenia and since, even without the resources of the Soviet Union to draw upon, Azerbaijan appears to have enough oil to sustain itself and its independence). I agree that Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and all of the Central Asian countries will remain in the Soviet Union in this scenario, though. 4. Would Russia actually agree to that, though? After all, while the Soviet Union avoided collapse in 1991-1992 in this scenario, who exactly is to say that the Soviet Union will not collapse at some future point in time in this scenario? |
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Post by spanishspy on Jun 23, 2016 1:53:20 GMT
1. Generally, the Central Asian republics were not too peeved with Moscow, as were Belarus and Azerbaijan. 2. A restricted union would lose the Baltics, Moldova, Georgia, 3. and Armenia, but retain the rest. 4. I can see several Autonomous Republics becoming full members of the Union as well. 1. Completely agreed. Indeed, in early 1991, even in Ukraine, only Galicia and Kiev voted against the new Union Treaty: 2. Completely agreed. 3. For the time being, Yes, but if Azerbaijan will continue to be able to draw on the resources of the Soviet Union in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict/War, then we might see a switch between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Specifically, Armenia might reenter the Soviet Union while Azerbaijan might withdraw from the Soviet Union afterwards (since Azerbaijan probably isn't going to want to be in a union together with Armenia and since, even without the resources of the Soviet Union to draw upon, Azerbaijan appears to have enough oil to sustain itself and its independence). I agree that Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and all of the Central Asian countries will remain in the Soviet Union in this scenario, though. 4. Would Russia actually agree to that, though? After all, while the Soviet Union avoided collapse in 1991-1992 in this scenario, who exactly is to say that the Soviet Union will not collapse at some future point in time in this scenario? I doubt that once Armenia leaves that they would be let back in while letting Azerbaijan leave. Only having Armenia would have a poorly defensible exclave. I also find it interesting to note the Ukrainian vote's division among ethnic lines. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 23, 2016 3:20:53 GMT
I also find it interesting to note the Ukrainian vote's division among ethnic lines. It is what we see now going on in Ukraine, but maybe here we see a small part of Ukraine becoming a independent country while the rest will join Russia. |
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