futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 19, 2016 2:57:57 GMT
What if French King Louis XV was a realist rather than an idealist and would have thus kept the Austrian Netherlands in 1748.
Indeed, any thoughts on this?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 19, 2016 8:35:19 GMT
If we look at this map it now appears that the Netherlands shares a border with the Kingdom of France.  |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 19, 2016 15:13:23 GMT
Initial thoughts as follows:
a) Britain keeps the colonial possessions that it returned OTL.
b) Your likely to see the diplomatic revolution of OTL no occurring. So Britain and Austria stay as allies as does France and Prussia. The next war, which is likely to be about the same time as OTL Seven Years War is likely to be with Britain, Austria and Russia against France, Prussia and probably at some stage Spain, if the Bourbon Compact is signed as OTL. The big difference is that you are likely to see the Netherlands supporting the allies instead of being neutral as French controlled southern Netherlands is a direct threat to their independence. You might also have other powers being more active against France as, as with Louis XIV its starting to look too powerful.
c) I would say the big loser here might be Prussia as will France may provide more direct aid and will put more pressure on western Germany it doesn't have the fiscal power to support Prussia as Britain did. Also Russia might stay hostile to Prussia longer. So you might see Prussia's rise tom power in Germany blocked with E Prussia and Silesia lost. [Understand that Russia had plans to annex E Prussia and swap it for Courtland with Poland. It might however go the other way with significant gains further gains for France in Europe. Which is likely to set the scene for later conflicts.
Presuming Pitt the Elder become PM Britain is likely to win the colonial war, possibly by even more than OTL if France is putting more into seeking gains in Europe but it could be longer and bloodier. However as in 1748 OTL you might see Britain returning colonial gains in return for France ceding back lands in Europe.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jul 5, 2016 4:49:57 GMT
Initial thoughts as follows: a) Britain keeps the colonial possessions that it returned OTL. b) Your likely to see the diplomatic revolution of OTL no occurring. So Britain and Austria stay as allies as does France and Prussia. The next war, which is likely to be about the same time as OTL Seven Years War is likely to be with Britain, Austria and Russia against France, Prussia and probably at some stage Spain, if the Bourbon Compact is signed as OTL. The big difference is that you are likely to see the Netherlands supporting the allies instead of being neutral as French controlled southern Netherlands is a direct threat to their independence. You might also have other powers being more active against France as, as with Louis XIV its starting to look too powerful. c) I would say the big loser here might be Prussia as will France may provide more direct aid and will put more pressure on western Germany it doesn't have the fiscal power to support Prussia as Britain did. Also Russia might stay hostile to Prussia longer. So you might see Prussia's rise tom power in Germany blocked with E Prussia and Silesia lost. [Understand that Russia had plans to annex E Prussia and swap it for Courtland with Poland. It might however go the other way with significant gains further gains for France in Europe. Which is likely to set the scene for later conflicts. d) Presuming Pitt the Elder become PM Britain is likely to win the colonial war, possibly by even more than OTL if France is putting more into seeking gains in Europe but it could be longer and bloodier. However as in 1748 OTL you might see Britain returning colonial gains in return for France ceding back lands in Europe. A. Agreed. B. Agreed with all of this. Also, though, it's Louis XV, not Louis XIV.  C. Why exactly would Russia stay hostile to Prussia longer, though? Due to Prussia being weaker in comparison to real life? D. Wouldn't Britain have placed more value on it keeping the former French North American colonies than on having France withdraw from its conquests in Europe, though? |
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jul 5, 2016 4:50:37 GMT
If we look at this map it now appears that the Netherlands shares a border with the Kingdom of France. Yep. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 5, 2016 17:07:52 GMT
Initial thoughts as follows: a) Britain keeps the colonial possessions that it returned OTL. b) Your likely to see the diplomatic revolution of OTL no occurring. So Britain and Austria stay as allies as does France and Prussia. The next war, which is likely to be about the same time as OTL Seven Years War is likely to be with Britain, Austria and Russia against France, Prussia and probably at some stage Spain, if the Bourbon Compact is signed as OTL. The big difference is that you are likely to see the Netherlands supporting the allies instead of being neutral as French controlled southern Netherlands is a direct threat to their independence. You might also have other powers being more active against France as, as with Louis XIV its starting to look too powerful. c) I would say the big loser here might be Prussia as will France may provide more direct aid and will put more pressure on western Germany it doesn't have the fiscal power to support Prussia as Britain did. Also Russia might stay hostile to Prussia longer. So you might see Prussia's rise tom power in Germany blocked with E Prussia and Silesia lost. [Understand that Russia had plans to annex E Prussia and swap it for Courtland with Poland. It might however go the other way with significant gains further gains for France in Europe. Which is likely to set the scene for later conflicts. d) Presuming Pitt the Elder become PM Britain is likely to win the colonial war, possibly by even more than OTL if France is putting more into seeking gains in Europe but it could be longer and bloodier. However as in 1748 OTL you might see Britain returning colonial gains in return for France ceding back lands in Europe. A. Agreed. B. Agreed with all of this. Also, though, it's Louis XV, not Louis XIV. C. Why exactly would Russia stay hostile to Prussia longer, though? Due to Prussia being weaker in comparison to real life? D. Wouldn't Britain have placed more value on it keeping the former French North American colonies than on having France withdraw from its conquests in Europe, though? Just to clarify I meant that France under Louis XV is looking as threatening to numerous powers as it was under Louis XIV. True I forgot that with Empress Anne's death you get the pro-Prussian Paul coming to the throne. As such that point is likely to be void. It depends on the circumstances. European lands are still very important and especially what's now Belgium, as England/Britain has long had a major policy aim of keeping that area outside of the control of large hostile continental powers. [Which is pretty much the definition of France as far as Britain is concerned at this time]. France having naval bases here are a direct threat to Britain's independence whereas French control of say Canada or some Caribbean islands is more of an irratate. Therefore European territories, especially strategically vital ones such as Belgium weigh a hell of a lot more on the mind of London than vast, barely settled regions of wilderness. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 5, 2016 17:09:43 GMT
A. Agreed. B. Agreed with all of this. Also, though, it's Louis XV, not Louis XIV. C. Why exactly would Russia stay hostile to Prussia longer, though? Due to Prussia being weaker in comparison to real life? D. Wouldn't Britain have placed more value on it keeping the former French North American colonies than on having France withdraw from its conquests in Europe, though? Just to clarify I meant that France under Louis XV is looking as threatening to numerous powers as it was under Louis XIV. True I forgot that with Empress Anne's death you get the pro-Prussian Paul coming to the throne. As such that point is likely to be void. It depends on the circumstances. European lands are still very important and especially what's now Belgium, as England/Britain has long had a major policy aim of keeping that area outside of the control of large hostile continental powers. [Which is pretty much the definition of France as far as Britain is concerned at this time]. France having naval bases here are a direct threat to Britain's independence whereas French control of say Canada or some Caribbean islands is more of an irratate. Therefore European territories, especially strategically vital ones such as Belgium weigh a hell of a lot more on the mind of London than vast, barely settled regions of wilderness. Would the Netherlands with France keeping Austrian Netherlands seeks closer relation with the United Kingdom or will they fall under French influence now they share a border with France. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 5, 2016 19:17:02 GMT
Just to clarify I meant that France under Louis XV is looking as threatening to numerous powers as it was under Louis XIV. True I forgot that with Empress Anne's death you get the pro-Prussian Paul coming to the throne. As such that point is likely to be void. It depends on the circumstances. European lands are still very important and especially what's now Belgium, as England/Britain has long had a major policy aim of keeping that area outside of the control of large hostile continental powers. [Which is pretty much the definition of France as far as Britain is concerned at this time]. France having naval bases here are a direct threat to Britain's independence whereas French control of say Canada or some Caribbean islands is more of an irratate. Therefore European territories, especially strategically vital ones such as Belgium weigh a hell of a lot more on the mind of London than vast, barely settled regions of wilderness. Would the Netherlands with France keeping Austrian Netherlands seeks closer relation with the United Kingdom or will they fall under French influence now they share a border with France. Historically France had replaced Spain as the major threat to Dutch independence, hence for instance William of Orange's role in the wars against Louis XIV. It did have a right to maintain fortifications in Belgium, in part to deter French influence/control and not sure exactly when that expired or was abandon. It sat out the Seven Years War, 1756-63, but had fought in the war of the Austrian Succession, 1740-48 so I suspect it would strongly oppose French control of Belgium. Also France was Catholic whereas both the Dutch and British were Protestant and while religion wasn't as influential as it had been the previous centuries it ws still a factor. The Dutch were not the power they had been the previous conflicts but they were still a significant 2nd level power with a useful reserve of wealth and naval strength as well. |
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Post by lordroel on Jul 5, 2016 19:20:21 GMT
The Dutch were not the power they had been the previous conflicts but they were still a significant 2nd level power with a useful reserve of wealth and naval strength as well. Wich was by the American Revolutionary War was degraded much more to a point they they where not even a 2nd level power anymore. |
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Post by stevep on Jul 6, 2016 19:02:25 GMT
The Dutch were not the power they had been the previous conflicts but they were still a significant 2nd level power with a useful reserve of wealth and naval strength as well. Wich was by the American Revolutionary War was degraded much more to a point they they where not even a 2nd level power anymore. Possibly although I would have thought they were at least as powerful as say Hanover or even possibly Bavaria and hence not to be ignored in the balance of conflict. |
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Post by lordroel on Jul 6, 2016 19:16:23 GMT
Wich was by the American Revolutionary War was degraded much more to a point they they where not even a 2nd level power anymore. Possibly although I would have thought they were at least as powerful as say Hanover or even possibly Bavaria and hence not to be ignored in the balance of conflict. No, a example during the Fourth Anglo-Dutch War (1780–1784) the Netherlands began building new warships (95 warships in the last quarter of the 18th century), the British doubling their fleet in the same time, so you can see the Netherlands was outproduced by the British. |
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Post by stevep on Jul 6, 2016 20:35:41 GMT
Possibly although I would have thought they were at least as powerful as say Hanover or even possibly Bavaria and hence not to be ignored in the balance of conflict. No, a example during the Fourth Anglo-Dutch War (1780–1784) the Netherlands began building new warships (95 warships in the last quarter of the 18th century), the British doubling their fleet in the same time, so you can see the Netherlands was outproduced by the British. True and the Dutch ships tended to be smaller because of problems with shallow waters restricting tonage. However even so its a sizeable number of ships and combined with others can make a difference. As Britain, fighting three powers and facing the Baltic bloc during this period found out to its costs.  |
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Post by lordroel on Jul 7, 2016 3:11:44 GMT
No, a example during the Fourth Anglo-Dutch War (1780–1784) the Netherlands began building new warships (95 warships in the last quarter of the 18th century), the British doubling their fleet in the same time, so you can see the Netherlands was outproduced by the British. True and the Dutch ships tended to be smaller because of problems with shallow waters restricting tonage. However even so its a sizeable number of ships and combined with others can make a difference. As Britain, fighting three powers and facing the Baltic bloc during this period found out to its costs. I think in this timeline with the French in control of Austrian Netherlands the Netherlands needs a strong ally, it could be the United Kingdom but also could be one of the Germans states. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 7, 2016 16:10:41 GMT
True and the Dutch ships tended to be smaller because of problems with shallow waters restricting tonage. However even so its a sizeable number of ships and combined with others can make a difference. As Britain, fighting three powers and facing the Baltic bloc during this period found out to its costs. I think in this timeline with the French in control of Austrian Netherlands the Netherlands needs a strong ally, it could be the United Kingdom but also could be one of the Germans states. Ironically, given their earlier history, I suspect that it would be Austria as it would be the only continental state powerful enough and with the incentive. Expect that also Britain would be heavily inviolved because they would want to support any measure that keeps France out of the Netherlands. |
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Post by lordroel on Jul 7, 2016 16:24:09 GMT
I think in this timeline with the French in control of Austrian Netherlands the Netherlands needs a strong ally, it could be the United Kingdom but also could be one of the Germans states. Ironically, given their earlier history, I suspect that it would be Austria as it would be the only continental state powerful enough and with the incentive. Expect that also Britain would be heavily inviolved because they would want to support any measure that keeps France out of the Netherlands. Well the country did control Austrian Netherlands due the British and Dutch insistence, as these powers feared potential French domination of the region. Question the subject is France Keeps the Austrian Netherlands, but if you look at this map the grey area is under control of the Prince-Bishopric of Liège, would they still be independent or would they also have become part of the Kingdom of France.  |
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