lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 11, 2016 11:51:20 GMT
From this page called io9 comes a article 10 Shocking Ways the Second World War Could Have Ended Differently, so which scenario is the one you like the most. 1. Germany Invades Britain Instead of the Soviet Union
Hitler's invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941 proved to be his undoing, but it didn't have to unfold in the way it did. After the fall of France a year earlier, Hitler seriously considered invading Britain. In fact, he even had his military chiefs come up with a plan, an operation dubbed Sea Lion. Preparations began in earnest, with both the British and Americans convinced that an invasion was imminent. What's more, with the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact securely in place (a treaty of non-aggression between Germany and the USSR), Hitler didn't have to worry about a Soviet incursion; Stalin was content with his share of Poland, and he had his sights set on Finland. But Hitler nixed the plans to invade Britain. For starters, it became painfully obvious that more time and preparations were needed. An invasion in 1940 would have been met with utter failure. Britain's navy controlled the Channel, and as the Battle of Britain revealed, the Luftwaffe could not dominate the skies in the way needed to support the attack. What's more, Hitler was unreasonably impatient about wanting to attack Russia. Some historians say Hitler convinced himself that he'd die young, precluding him from seeing his ultimate dream come true. History's most notorious gambler decided to make his move. But instead of invading Britain in 1940 or the Soviet Union in 1941, one of two things could have happened differently. For one, Hitler could have delayed his attack on Russia until 1942 or 1943 (Stalin would have been none-the-wiser). Or, Germany could have continued its air assault on Britain while continuing its naval blockade around the Isles. Then, after an appropriate period of preparation, an amphibious landing could have commenced on British shores in either 1941 or 1942. This isn't ridiculous considering how long it took the Allies to prepare for its invasion of Normandy — something that wouldn't happen until mid-1944. Then, with Britain knocked out, Germany could have started its preparations for an attack on the Soviet Union. Had Sea Lion been successful, a likely scenario would have seen the British government and monarchy relocated to Canada. From there, working with the Americans, the Allies could have planned for an invasion of Africa, which in turn could have led to further incursions in Italy and the Balkans. One thing's for sure, however, it wouldn't have been easy — especially if Germany's subsequent invasion of the Soviet Union turned out to be successful. 2. Japan Refrains From Invading Pearl Harbor
The isolationist movement in the United States was alive and well in 1941. It was not a foregone conclusion that the country was going to enter into the war — especially after its harrowing experience in the Great War. But with Japan's invasion of Pearl Harbor, the President's hand was forced. Japan's fateful decision to confront the United States stemmed from its need to secure oil and rubber reserves from the Dutch East Indies and southeast Asia. Had it not attacked Hawaii, its expansionist policies would have likely drawn in the United States eventually, say, after an invasion of the Philippines. But for argument's sake, let's assume that the U.S. were never given a reason to formally enter into the war. In such a scenario, Britain and her colonial allies would have been left in the lurch. America's support for Britain and the USSR would have consisted exclusively of material aid. Britain's RAF would have struggled in Africa, likely never achieving the ability to invade Italy or some other "soft underbelly" region. No Western Front would have emerged. The Soviet Union would have likely still defeated Germany, but it would have taken considerably longer. And under those conditions, Stalin would have likely claimed all of Europe for himself. 3. The Germans Take Moscow in 1941
A longstanding debate among historians is whether or not Operation Barbarossa could have actually succeeded. Several mistakes were made during the operation, including a 38-day delay to start the invasion and Hitler's catastrophic decision to divert the main thrust southwards to help Army Group South capture Ukraine, thus delaying the attack on Moscow. By the time Army Group Central reached the outskirts of Moscow in early December 1941 — a teasingly close distance of 15 miles (German soldiers could actually see the spires of the Kremlin) — winter had set in, forever thwarting Hitler's plans to take the nation's capital. This is one of the most significant events of the Second World War, if not the most significant event. Things would have turned out quite differently had the Soviet Union fallen. First, it would have knocked out a significant military power. Then, armed with Russia's vast resources (including the oil regions to the south and the breadbasket regions of Ukraine), the Third Reich would have converted into the autarchy of Hitler's fantasies. Nazi Germany would have likely emerged as a superpower, eventually defeating Britain and claiming all of the Middle East (probably linking up with Japanese forces). It would have eventually developed nuclear capabilities, kindling a Cold War with the United States. Frighteningly, the Nazis would have succeeding in murdering all the Jews and Romani of Europe. And through the diabolical Hunger Plan, they would have starved tens of millions of slavs to death as well, "cleansing" the occupied territories of its native peoples (Hitler was a big fan of the American pioneering model). Needless to say, this would have been a humanitarian catastrophe of the highest order, possibility setting the stage for a totalitarian dark age (though as history has since shown, even the Soviet Union eventually collapsed). 4. Russia and Germany Make a Separate Peace
Imagine a scenario in which both Hitler and Stalin came to a mutual agreement to cease hostilities on the Eastern Front. With the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact restored, Germany could focus its efforts on defeating Britain. This one's a bit of a stretch for at least two reasons. First, Germany desperately needed Russia's oil reserves to continue its war effort. Second, Stalin would have been extremely hesitant at allowing Germany to continue running roughshod around Europe; the Third Reich would continue to pose a serious existential threat to the USSR. Still, the possibility that this could've happened is quite frightening. 5. The Nazis Develop the Bomb Before the Allies
Given Hitler's penchant for so-called "wonder weapons," there's little doubt he would have used the atomic bomb if he had it. This is the same regime, after all, that developed a precursor to the intercontinental ballistic missile. The Nazis even used mosquitoes as biological weapons. Needless to say, it would have been lights-out for the Allies had Germany come up with the bomb first. It would have resulted in victory for Germany on all fronts. Mercifully, the Nazis never appreciated the potential for a weapon that was so closely associated with "Jewish science." 6. No Western Front
Had it been up to Winston Churchill there would have been no Western Front. With memories of the Great War's static Western Front still haunting him, he was resistant to launch an amphibious attack on France, preferring instead his "soft underbelly" strategy of attacking Axis powers through Italy and the Balkans. But by the time the United States consolidated itself in the war, Churchill and the British military had to take a back seat to American planners. Hence the attack on Normandy in June 1944. Of course, Stalin also demanded a Western Front — not only to offset the terrible losses incurred by the Red Army (Stalin would later say, "You paid with your steel, we paid with our blood"), but to also prevent rival Allied forces from establishing a foothold in Eastern and Central Europe. He was already looking ahead to post-war Europe and the creation of a communist bloc. But had Churchill gotten his way, it's likely that an exceptionally strong Allied invasion of both Italy and the Balkans would have occurred. Alternately (or in supplemental fashion), an invasion force could have come through Norway (which is why Hitler insisted on stationing over 400,000 troops there over the course of the entire war — even as Berlin burned). The complexion of the war would have been vastly different, with the bulk of anti-Axis forces coming from the east and south. It's difficult to predict what would have happened next, but a German defeat would have still been likely. Though it's interesting to think about France's fate given such a scenario. 7. The July 1944 Plot to Assassinate Hitler Succeeds
The 20 July 1944 plot to assassinate Adolf Hitler was a tragedy on multiple levels. Not only did it fail in its primary objective, but it led to the capture of 7,000 people, of which 4,980 were executed. Worse, it resulted in a retrenched and further radicalized Nazi party. Called Operation Valkyrie, the plot was organized by Wehrmacht officers who wanted Hitler out of the picture. They were hoping to make a separate peace with the Allies and continue the war against the USSR. It's highly unlikely, however, that the Western Allies would have gone for it (recalling Roosevelt's infamous "unconditional surrender" speech — and the fact that the Allies already had an agreement in place stating no separate peace under any circumstances). There's been much debate over what would have happened had Hitler been killed at that stage in the war. It's unlikely that his death would have resulted in the collapse of the Nazi party or the war effort. Even Claus von Stauffenberg, a leading member of the Valkyrie Plot, accepted that he would "go down in German history as a traitor." Indeed, despite the sorry state of the war, the cult of personality surrounding Hitler was very much alive and well. Had the plot been successful, however, a likely scenario would have seen either Hermann Göring or the fanatical Heinrich Himmler ascend to the lead role. Either of them would have had the plotters captured and executed. The Nazis would have continued the war, but there would have been an increased chance of an early surrender (though, the regime would have undoubtedly been accused of committing a Great War-like Stab in the Back). Germany could have potentially avoided the cataclysm that was to befall them in the following months. Another possible scenario is that the death of Hitler could have kick-started a more vociferous internal resistance movement — one that could have even started a civil war. But owing to widespread German patriotism and sense of duty, this scenario is quite improbable. 8. Stalin's Red Army Continues West After Taking Berlin
By the time the Battle of Stalingrad had ended, the Soviet Union had transitioned itself from Great Power status to something approximating a Superpower. By early 1943, the war was no longer in doubt, with Stalin's Red Army persistently pushing the Wehrmacht back towards Germany. And as it went, it gobbled up territories that would later form an Iron Curtain separating Eastern Europe from the West. But as historian Anthony Beevor has noted, Stalin —for a brief time — seriously considered taking all of Europe for himself. And he might have been able to do it, despite the fact that Russia was importing copious amounts of material and equipment from the U.S. (Russian soldiers were eating American canned food and driving in Jeeps and Studebaker trucks). But after the fall of Berlin, the Red Army consisted of 12 million men spread across an astounding 300 divisions. Meanwhile, the Allies had 4 million men spread across 85 divisions. By V-E Day, the Americans were still several months away from developing the bomb — enough time for the Soviets to push the Allies back into the French waters. What would have happened after that, with the advent of the bomb, is anyone's guess. 9. Churchill Immediately Starts World War III
On the flip side of this alt-history coin, we also seriously need to consider Churchill's Operation Unthinkable — the continuation of the war against the Soviet Union after the fall of Nazi Germany. Like Stalin, Churchill had anticipated hostilities after the war and wondered if there was no better time to wage World War III than the present. But cooler heads prevailed. The Red Army stopped at Berlin and Eisenhower never considered waging war against the Reds (unlike his compatriate, George Patton). 10. The Allies Invade Japan Instead of Dropping the Bomb
The bomb was dropped on Japan because military experts presented President Truman with projections showing millions of U.S. casualties by the time Japan would surrender (these projections were based on casualties incurred during the fight for Okinawa). Had Truman refused to drop the bomb, Operation Downfall would have been put into effect — and it would have been the largest amphibious operation in human history. The two-part invasion was set to commence in October of 1945. Operation Olympic would have seen the capture of the southern third of the southernmost main Japanese island, Kyushu, while Okinawa would have been used as a staging area. Then, in spring 1946, Operation Coronet would have seen the invasion of the Kanto Plain, near Tokyo. Airbases on Kyushu captured in Operation Olympic would have allowed land-based air support for this second phase of the attack. In total, 30 divisions would have been required. In response, the Japanese were preparing for an all-out defense of Kyushu. Had it gone down, it would have been a bloody mess.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 11, 2016 14:21:25 GMT
From this page called io9 comes a article 10 Shocking Ways the Second World War Could Have Ended Differently, so which scenario is the one you like the most. 1. Germany Invades Britain Instead of the Soviet Union
Hitler's invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941 proved to be his undoing, but it didn't have to unfold in the way it did. After the fall of France a year earlier, Hitler seriously considered invading Britain. In fact, he even had his military chiefs come up with a plan, an operation dubbed Sea Lion. Preparations began in earnest, with both the British and Americans convinced that an invasion was imminent. What's more, with the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact securely in place (a treaty of non-aggression between Germany and the USSR), Hitler didn't have to worry about a Soviet incursion; Stalin was content with his share of Poland, and he had his sights set on Finland. But Hitler nixed the plans to invade Britain. For starters, it became painfully obvious that more time and preparations were needed. An invasion in 1940 would have been met with utter failure. Britain's navy controlled the Channel, and as the Battle of Britain revealed, the Luftwaffe could not dominate the skies in the way needed to support the attack. What's more, Hitler was unreasonably impatient about wanting to attack Russia. Some historians say Hitler convinced himself that he'd die young, precluding him from seeing his ultimate dream come true. History's most notorious gambler decided to make his move. But instead of invading Britain in 1940 or the Soviet Union in 1941, one of two things could have happened differently. For one, Hitler could have delayed his attack on Russia until 1942 or 1943 (Stalin would have been none-the-wiser). Or, Germany could have continued its air assault on Britain while continuing its naval blockade around the Isles. Then, after an appropriate period of preparation, an amphibious landing could have commenced on British shores in either 1941 or 1942. This isn't ridiculous considering how long it took the Allies to prepare for its invasion of Normandy — something that wouldn't happen until mid-1944. Then, with Britain knocked out, Germany could have started its preparations for an attack on the Soviet Union. Had Sea Lion been successful, a likely scenario would have seen the British government and monarchy relocated to Canada. From there, working with the Americans, the Allies could have planned for an invasion of Africa, which in turn could have led to further incursions in Italy and the Balkans. One thing's for sure, however, it wouldn't have been easy — especially if Germany's subsequent invasion of the Soviet Union turned out to be successful. 2. Japan Refrains From Invading Pearl Harbor
The isolationist movement in the United States was alive and well in 1941. It was not a foregone conclusion that the country was going to enter into the war — especially after its harrowing experience in the Great War. But with Japan's invasion of Pearl Harbor, the President's hand was forced. Japan's fateful decision to confront the United States stemmed from its need to secure oil and rubber reserves from the Dutch East Indies and southeast Asia. Had it not attacked Hawaii, its expansionist policies would have likely drawn in the United States eventually, say, after an invasion of the Philippines. But for argument's sake, let's assume that the U.S. were never given a reason to formally enter into the war. In such a scenario, Britain and her colonial allies would have been left in the lurch. America's support for Britain and the USSR would have consisted exclusively of material aid. Britain's RAF would have struggled in Africa, likely never achieving the ability to invade Italy or some other "soft underbelly" region. No Western Front would have emerged. The Soviet Union would have likely still defeated Germany, but it would have taken considerably longer. And under those conditions, Stalin would have likely claimed all of Europe for himself. 3. The Germans Take Moscow in 1941
A longstanding debate among historians is whether or not Operation Barbarossa could have actually succeeded. Several mistakes were made during the operation, including a 38-day delay to start the invasion and Hitler's catastrophic decision to divert the main thrust southwards to help Army Group South capture Ukraine, thus delaying the attack on Moscow. By the time Army Group Central reached the outskirts of Moscow in early December 1941 — a teasingly close distance of 15 miles (German soldiers could actually see the spires of the Kremlin) — winter had set in, forever thwarting Hitler's plans to take the nation's capital. This is one of the most significant events of the Second World War, if not the most significant event. Things would have turned out quite differently had the Soviet Union fallen. First, it would have knocked out a significant military power. Then, armed with Russia's vast resources (including the oil regions to the south and the breadbasket regions of Ukraine), the Third Reich would have converted into the autarchy of Hitler's fantasies. Nazi Germany would have likely emerged as a superpower, eventually defeating Britain and claiming all of the Middle East (probably linking up with Japanese forces). It would have eventually developed nuclear capabilities, kindling a Cold War with the United States. Frighteningly, the Nazis would have succeeding in murdering all the Jews and Romani of Europe. And through the diabolical Hunger Plan, they would have starved tens of millions of slavs to death as well, "cleansing" the occupied territories of its native peoples (Hitler was a big fan of the American pioneering model). Needless to say, this would have been a humanitarian catastrophe of the highest order, possibility setting the stage for a totalitarian dark age (though as history has since shown, even the Soviet Union eventually collapsed). 4. Russia and Germany Make a Separate Peace
Imagine a scenario in which both Hitler and Stalin came to a mutual agreement to cease hostilities on the Eastern Front. With the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact restored, Germany could focus its efforts on defeating Britain. This one's a bit of a stretch for at least two reasons. First, Germany desperately needed Russia's oil reserves to continue its war effort. Second, Stalin would have been extremely hesitant at allowing Germany to continue running roughshod around Europe; the Third Reich would continue to pose a serious existential threat to the USSR. Still, the possibility that this could've happened is quite frightening. 5. The Nazis Develop the Bomb Before the Allies
Given Hitler's penchant for so-called "wonder weapons," there's little doubt he would have used the atomic bomb if he had it. This is the same regime, after all, that developed a precursor to the intercontinental ballistic missile. The Nazis even used mosquitoes as biological weapons. Needless to say, it would have been lights-out for the Allies had Germany come up with the bomb first. It would have resulted in victory for Germany on all fronts. Mercifully, the Nazis never appreciated the potential for a weapon that was so closely associated with "Jewish science." 6. No Western Front
Had it been up to Winston Churchill there would have been no Western Front. With memories of the Great War's static Western Front still haunting him, he was resistant to launch an amphibious attack on France, preferring instead his "soft underbelly" strategy of attacking Axis powers through Italy and the Balkans. But by the time the United States consolidated itself in the war, Churchill and the British military had to take a back seat to American planners. Hence the attack on Normandy in June 1944. Of course, Stalin also demanded a Western Front — not only to offset the terrible losses incurred by the Red Army (Stalin would later say, "You paid with your steel, we paid with our blood"), but to also prevent rival Allied forces from establishing a foothold in Eastern and Central Europe. He was already looking ahead to post-war Europe and the creation of a communist bloc. But had Churchill gotten his way, it's likely that an exceptionally strong Allied invasion of both Italy and the Balkans would have occurred. Alternately (or in supplemental fashion), an invasion force could have come through Norway (which is why Hitler insisted on stationing over 400,000 troops there over the course of the entire war — even as Berlin burned). The complexion of the war would have been vastly different, with the bulk of anti-Axis forces coming from the east and south. It's difficult to predict what would have happened next, but a German defeat would have still been likely. Though it's interesting to think about France's fate given such a scenario. 7. The July 1944 Plot to Assassinate Hitler Succeeds
The 20 July 1944 plot to assassinate Adolf Hitler was a tragedy on multiple levels. Not only did it fail in its primary objective, but it led to the capture of 7,000 people, of which 4,980 were executed. Worse, it resulted in a retrenched and further radicalized Nazi party. Called Operation Valkyrie, the plot was organized by Wehrmacht officers who wanted Hitler out of the picture. They were hoping to make a separate peace with the Allies and continue the war against the USSR. It's highly unlikely, however, that the Western Allies would have gone for it (recalling Roosevelt's infamous "unconditional surrender" speech — and the fact that the Allies already had an agreement in place stating no separate peace under any circumstances). There's been much debate over what would have happened had Hitler been killed at that stage in the war. It's unlikely that his death would have resulted in the collapse of the Nazi party or the war effort. Even Claus von Stauffenberg, a leading member of the Valkyrie Plot, accepted that he would "go down in German history as a traitor." Indeed, despite the sorry state of the war, the cult of personality surrounding Hitler was very much alive and well. Had the plot been successful, however, a likely scenario would have seen either Hermann Göring or the fanatical Heinrich Himmler ascend to the lead role. Either of them would have had the plotters captured and executed. The Nazis would have continued the war, but there would have been an increased chance of an early surrender (though, the regime would have undoubtedly been accused of committing a Great War-like Stab in the Back). Germany could have potentially avoided the cataclysm that was to befall them in the following months. Another possible scenario is that the death of Hitler could have kick-started a more vociferous internal resistance movement — one that could have even started a civil war. But owing to widespread German patriotism and sense of duty, this scenario is quite improbable. 8. Stalin's Red Army Continues West After Taking Berlin
By the time the Battle of Stalingrad had ended, the Soviet Union had transitioned itself from Great Power status to something approximating a Superpower. By early 1943, the war was no longer in doubt, with Stalin's Red Army persistently pushing the Wehrmacht back towards Germany. And as it went, it gobbled up territories that would later form an Iron Curtain separating Eastern Europe from the West. But as historian Anthony Beevor has noted, Stalin —for a brief time — seriously considered taking all of Europe for himself. And he might have been able to do it, despite the fact that Russia was importing copious amounts of material and equipment from the U.S. (Russian soldiers were eating American canned food and driving in Jeeps and Studebaker trucks). But after the fall of Berlin, the Red Army consisted of 12 million men spread across an astounding 300 divisions. Meanwhile, the Allies had 4 million men spread across 85 divisions. By V-E Day, the Americans were still several months away from developing the bomb — enough time for the Soviets to push the Allies back into the French waters. What would have happened after that, with the advent of the bomb, is anyone's guess. 9. Churchill Immediately Starts World War III
On the flip side of this alt-history coin, we also seriously need to consider Churchill's Operation Unthinkable — the continuation of the war against the Soviet Union after the fall of Nazi Germany. Like Stalin, Churchill had anticipated hostilities after the war and wondered if there was no better time to wage World War III than the present. But cooler heads prevailed. The Red Army stopped at Berlin and Eisenhower never considered waging war against the Reds (unlike his compatriate, George Patton). 10. The Allies Invade Japan Instead of Dropping the Bomb
The bomb was dropped on Japan because military experts presented President Truman with projections showing millions of U.S. casualties by the time Japan would surrender (these projections were based on casualties incurred during the fight for Okinawa). Had Truman refused to drop the bomb, Operation Downfall would have been put into effect — and it would have been the largest amphibious operation in human history. The two-part invasion was set to commence in October of 1945. Operation Olympic would have seen the capture of the southern third of the southernmost main Japanese island, Kyushu, while Okinawa would have been used as a staging area. Then, in spring 1946, Operation Coronet would have seen the invasion of the Kanto Plain, near Tokyo. Airbases on Kyushu captured in Operation Olympic would have allowed land-based air support for this second phase of the attack. In total, 30 divisions would have been required. In response, the Japanese were preparing for an all-out defense of Kyushu. Had it gone down, it would have been a bloody mess. Lordroel A lot here but quick thoughts: 1) Possible but I don't know if Germany could have knocked out Britain. The Channel still makes a very effective moat and Britain was out-producing the Germans in many areas, including air power for much of the war until the Germans fully mobilised after Stalingrad. Even if they do this from June 40 onwards its going to be a huge and costly battle with no certainty of success for Germany. Plus the idea of Britain falling and its navy and industry coming under German control is the thing, other than a direct attack on the US, most likely to bring the US off the fence. That could still make for a very long and bitter war. Stalin has potentially what he wanted in terms of fascists and democrats involved in a bitter and prolonged war draining both of them. Alternatively it could be that the western powers are unwilling to wage a bitter fight against the massive forces at German disposal and some compromise peace is agreed which leads to a tri-polar world. If Britain did fall I'm not sure that Germany would find the Soviets that easy. The latter would still have the problem of Stalin's stupidity and poor leadership, which at times rivalled that of Hitler. However an extra year to rearm and rebuild after the purges would greatly boost the Red Army. Also one reason Stalin refused to accept Hitler would attack was that it would be stupid for him to do so while still fighting Britain. If Britain had fallen there is a much clearer and immediate threat to Stalin and his empire. 2. Japan Refrains From Invading Pearl Harbor I think this is a far more dangerous threat. If the US isn't attacked and doesn't quickly join the conflict, at least in the Pacific, I could see Britain being forced to make peace with Japan and probably fairly quickly with Germany simply because it would be vastly overstretched in this position. Churchill would almost certainly fall and Britain might well have to make substantial concessions in both the ME and Pacific. Its difficult to tell who would have won in Europe then with possibly a peace of exhaustion between the Nazis and Soviets as the most likely result. Just to clarify the key point is not the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour, which was a tactical success but a strategic disaster of the 1st order for Japan, but that Japan doesn't attack any US controlled territory. Even if the US does declare war as a result, for a number of reasons Japan is in a superior position to OTL. 3. The Germans Take Moscow in 1941 This has been the centre of much debate as you say but I tend to the view it would have been virtually impossible for the Germans to take Moscow in 41, for the following reasons: a) The delay was partly due to the campaign against Yugoslavia and Greece but even if that had been avoided I doubt the Germans could have attacked effectively that much earlier due to the wet spring conditions. b) The diversion to secure the encirclement around Kiev is often sited but without it could AGS have defeated those sizeable forces on its own. If not AGC's attack towards Moscow leaves it on an exposed salient with its southern flank very exposed. c) As sources say the vanguard of German forces were on the outskirts of Moscow, which is a huge urban area. Provided there isn't a pretty much total collapse of Soviet will to resist, which is possibly but difficult to tell how likely, a more successful Operation Typhoon could be a fatal disaster for the Germans. You could well have an earlier and much larger Stalingrad fought in Moscow. While the Red Army is markedly weaker, in both quality and quantity in Dec 41 than a year later AGC is at the very limits of its supply lines and pretty much totally unprepared for the winter about to hit. If the Germans got to Moscow say a couple of weeks earlier and started to fight their way in I can't see Hitler being willing to accept the city can't be won at that time and insisting on continuing the attack come what may. The Red Army probably won't have the strength for a huge encirclement as in Operation Saturn but AGC could be bled white, with much larger losses than OTL and basically collapse, similar to the French in 1812 with a retreat turning into a rout. 4. Russia and Germany Make a Separate Peace Its possible, and more likely than Hitler making a separate peace with the western powers once the US is in the war but as you say extremely unlikely. Neither leader has any trust for the other and when discussions did occur in 43 they were so far apart as to be unreasonable. [Hitler wanted something roughly along the Dnieper while I think the Soviets were suggesting the pre-1914 border]. Also given the hatred between the two sides any such peace would have come at huge political costs and while both sides were ruthless dictatorships a lot of people would have been deeply unhappy. 5. The Nazis Develop the Bomb Before the Allies There are serious problems here with finding the resources, even without the dead-ends the German programmes [there were a number of them given the bureaucratic nature of the Nazi regime] dived into. Its not just building the bomb itself, which is going to be difficult to hide from the western allies who will seek to bomb the crap out of any such project and if they think the Nazis are getting close might even resort to massed gas attacks, at which point things get very nasty for continental Europe. There's also the delivery of such a weapon. You need a delivery system which means either a large strategic bomber, which the Nazis don't have the resources for without giving up a lot of other projects or just possibly a suicidal U boat mission. Not sure of a Fat Man type bomb could fit into a normal submarine and even if it could you need to get through allied ASW defences and can only attack coastal targets. Especially since warheads are going to expensive and few in number in early years this could be very hit and miss. Then again allied stocks of mustard gas and possibly even anthrax come into play. 6. No Western Front I must admit I'm a fan of this approach. Remember it being mentioned in one of the alternative history books, think it was one called the Hitler Options, - checking yes, Chapter 6, through the Soft Underbelly. There are a number of advantages of a serious concentration on the Med. a) Instead of waiting until the US has built up massive forces in Britain [and maintaining them there in a relatively small island under siege] you can deploy them as they become available. b) Europe has very good east-west railways and lines of communications but, at the time, poor north south ones. As such its more difficult for the Germans to switch forces from Germany, the eastern front or occupation of France [as they still have to have some forces there] to the Balkans than between the other fronts. Correspondingly its more difficult for the allies to storm quickly northwards but if your starting in say 43 with smaller forces that shouldn't be the intent. c) As well as the strategic target of Romanian oil going through the Med gives the opportunity to take out German allies [Italy, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary] who provide a lot of troops to support German forces, especially in the east. Also once you have taken Bulgaria out then it should be practical to strong arm the Turks into allowing supplies through the straits which is far more efficient in sending aid to the Soviets than other routes and can go virtually directly to those units fighting their way through the Ukraine. d) If you can commit the US to commit to this route, especially in making amphibious shipping available then Italy turns from a very tough operating fighting all the way up the peninsula to a potentially very deadly trap for any German forces there. Simultaneous landings on east and west coasts, with massive air support, should be able to sever the relatively narrow coastal plains and then the rivers cutting east and west along the peninsula become barriers not to the advancing allies but the Germans trying to fight their way northwards. As in the chapter I mention, recommend it as a good read, a landing in N France is still possible, as part of the end game as things fall apart for Nazi Germany, rather than seeking to attack them while strong there. I don't believe Norway would have been a practical alternative. It offers some options, making the Murmansk run a lot safer for the allied convoys and can provide some bases for attacking Germany by air but doesn't have the land and other resources to be a base for an attack on N Germany, plus you would also need Denmark to be able to get into the Baltic. 7. The July 1944 Plot to Assassinate Hitler Succeeds I would agree with most of your comments here. Can't see even a successful assassination of Hitler and [as you said even less likely] overthrowing of the Nazis leading to a quick peace as the German military had vastly unrealistic aims for what gains they would be allowed to keep. You might even prolong the war as a militarily lead Germany, with the population feeling desperate and deserted by the rejection of peace proposals, puts up a more efficient defence while there is more scope for German resentment after the war. 8. Stalin's Red Army Continues West After Taking Berlin He might have tried this but I doubt it would have succeeded. The Red Army has numbers but is operating over long and exposed supply lines through often bitterly hostile territory. Not just German, Hungarian and Romania but Polish, Ukrainian and just about everybody else. The allies would be enraged at such a betrayal and they have massive air strength while with Lend-Lease cut off the Red Army will quickly be consuming itself as it runs out of supplies and equipment. Its possible that Stalin could get vital support from communist elements in western Europe, including possibly in western forces, but I doubt it would be enough and expect that the Red Army would be stopped either at the Rhine or say near the French border. Then things get messy. There is a long grind ahead while the Japanese will have got the ally they wanted in the Soviets and hence will no longer fear about their northern border and may get some supplies of raw materials, which will make them more determined to resist. The bomb will be used, probably with early targets as Moscow and Baku and it could be a bitter fight. 9. Churchill Immediately Starts World War III I was surprised checking up that the 1st of the two Operation Unthinkable plans was actually offensive, but not surprised it was quickly rejected. [See en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable] The 2nd one made plans about what would happen if the Soviets attacked the western powers, which runs into option 8 above. This occurs a little later with the US already withdrawing forces for operations against Japan or to demobilise them so the odds were worse, although I am surprised the British leaders were so worried that they would be pushed totally from the continent. So possibly I was too optimistic in my response above. 10. The Allies Invade Japan Instead of Dropping the Bomb Presuming the bomb wasn't used for whatever reason and Japan fights as long as some sources predicted, then it could easily make something like a 50% increase in the total number of deaths in WWII. [Although that may exclude the losses in China pre-1941]. Both because of the mix of massive American fire-power against massed human wave attacks by fanatical resistance and probably even more the condition of a lot of the Japanese population by this time. You would probably see a complete collapse of the Japanese economy and transport systems, already badly battered, accompanied by mass starvation and pandemic disease outbreaks. It would be very nasty and even if there is a Korean war a few years down the line I doubt Japan would be in any condition to stage the sort of recovery it managed OTL. Also bitterness and mistrust could be so great that Japan goes communist or at the very least the US needs to keep a stronger presence there. However, while the bombs were important in prompting a Japanese surrender I don't know if even they would have continued to resist all the way through into mid-46. The invasion of Manchuria by the Soviets both removed an unrealistic hope that the latter might be an ally or at least friendly intermediate for them but also raised the fear of communist control of Japan itself while the massive losses that would be suffered in trying to prevent the initial landings in Operation Olympic is almost certain to take them over the edge into surrender. Anyway, some interesting ideas.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 11, 2016 14:28:23 GMT
From this page called io9 comes a article 10 Shocking Ways the Second World War Could Have Ended Differently, so which scenario is the one you like the most. 1. Germany Invades Britain Instead of the Soviet Union
Hitler's invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941 proved to be his undoing, but it didn't have to unfold in the way it did. After the fall of France a year earlier, Hitler seriously considered invading Britain. In fact, he even had his military chiefs come up with a plan, an operation dubbed Sea Lion. Preparations began in earnest, with both the British and Americans convinced that an invasion was imminent. What's more, with the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact securely in place (a treaty of non-aggression between Germany and the USSR), Hitler didn't have to worry about a Soviet incursion; Stalin was content with his share of Poland, and he had his sights set on Finland. But Hitler nixed the plans to invade Britain. For starters, it became painfully obvious that more time and preparations were needed. An invasion in 1940 would have been met with utter failure. Britain's navy controlled the Channel, and as the Battle of Britain revealed, the Luftwaffe could not dominate the skies in the way needed to support the attack. What's more, Hitler was unreasonably impatient about wanting to attack Russia. Some historians say Hitler convinced himself that he'd die young, precluding him from seeing his ultimate dream come true. History's most notorious gambler decided to make his move. But instead of invading Britain in 1940 or the Soviet Union in 1941, one of two things could have happened differently. For one, Hitler could have delayed his attack on Russia until 1942 or 1943 (Stalin would have been none-the-wiser). Or, Germany could have continued its air assault on Britain while continuing its naval blockade around the Isles. Then, after an appropriate period of preparation, an amphibious landing could have commenced on British shores in either 1941 or 1942. This isn't ridiculous considering how long it took the Allies to prepare for its invasion of Normandy — something that wouldn't happen until mid-1944. Then, with Britain knocked out, Germany could have started its preparations for an attack on the Soviet Union. Had Sea Lion been successful, a likely scenario would have seen the British government and monarchy relocated to Canada. From there, working with the Americans, the Allies could have planned for an invasion of Africa, which in turn could have led to further incursions in Italy and the Balkans. One thing's for sure, however, it wouldn't have been easy — especially if Germany's subsequent invasion of the Soviet Union turned out to be successful. 2. Japan Refrains From Invading Pearl Harbor
The isolationist movement in the United States was alive and well in 1941. It was not a foregone conclusion that the country was going to enter into the war — especially after its harrowing experience in the Great War. But with Japan's invasion of Pearl Harbor, the President's hand was forced. Japan's fateful decision to confront the United States stemmed from its need to secure oil and rubber reserves from the Dutch East Indies and southeast Asia. Had it not attacked Hawaii, its expansionist policies would have likely drawn in the United States eventually, say, after an invasion of the Philippines. But for argument's sake, let's assume that the U.S. were never given a reason to formally enter into the war. In such a scenario, Britain and her colonial allies would have been left in the lurch. America's support for Britain and the USSR would have consisted exclusively of material aid. Britain's RAF would have struggled in Africa, likely never achieving the ability to invade Italy or some other "soft underbelly" region. No Western Front would have emerged. The Soviet Union would have likely still defeated Germany, but it would have taken considerably longer. And under those conditions, Stalin would have likely claimed all of Europe for himself. 3. The Germans Take Moscow in 1941
A longstanding debate among historians is whether or not Operation Barbarossa could have actually succeeded. Several mistakes were made during the operation, including a 38-day delay to start the invasion and Hitler's catastrophic decision to divert the main thrust southwards to help Army Group South capture Ukraine, thus delaying the attack on Moscow. By the time Army Group Central reached the outskirts of Moscow in early December 1941 — a teasingly close distance of 15 miles (German soldiers could actually see the spires of the Kremlin) — winter had set in, forever thwarting Hitler's plans to take the nation's capital. This is one of the most significant events of the Second World War, if not the most significant event. Things would have turned out quite differently had the Soviet Union fallen. First, it would have knocked out a significant military power. Then, armed with Russia's vast resources (including the oil regions to the south and the breadbasket regions of Ukraine), the Third Reich would have converted into the autarchy of Hitler's fantasies. Nazi Germany would have likely emerged as a superpower, eventually defeating Britain and claiming all of the Middle East (probably linking up with Japanese forces). It would have eventually developed nuclear capabilities, kindling a Cold War with the United States. Frighteningly, the Nazis would have succeeding in murdering all the Jews and Romani of Europe. And through the diabolical Hunger Plan, they would have starved tens of millions of slavs to death as well, "cleansing" the occupied territories of its native peoples (Hitler was a big fan of the American pioneering model). Needless to say, this would have been a humanitarian catastrophe of the highest order, possibility setting the stage for a totalitarian dark age (though as history has since shown, even the Soviet Union eventually collapsed). 4. Russia and Germany Make a Separate Peace
Imagine a scenario in which both Hitler and Stalin came to a mutual agreement to cease hostilities on the Eastern Front. With the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact restored, Germany could focus its efforts on defeating Britain. This one's a bit of a stretch for at least two reasons. First, Germany desperately needed Russia's oil reserves to continue its war effort. Second, Stalin would have been extremely hesitant at allowing Germany to continue running roughshod around Europe; the Third Reich would continue to pose a serious existential threat to the USSR. Still, the possibility that this could've happened is quite frightening. 5. The Nazis Develop the Bomb Before the Allies
Given Hitler's penchant for so-called "wonder weapons," there's little doubt he would have used the atomic bomb if he had it. This is the same regime, after all, that developed a precursor to the intercontinental ballistic missile. The Nazis even used mosquitoes as biological weapons. Needless to say, it would have been lights-out for the Allies had Germany come up with the bomb first. It would have resulted in victory for Germany on all fronts. Mercifully, the Nazis never appreciated the potential for a weapon that was so closely associated with "Jewish science." 6. No Western Front
Had it been up to Winston Churchill there would have been no Western Front. With memories of the Great War's static Western Front still haunting him, he was resistant to launch an amphibious attack on France, preferring instead his "soft underbelly" strategy of attacking Axis powers through Italy and the Balkans. But by the time the United States consolidated itself in the war, Churchill and the British military had to take a back seat to American planners. Hence the attack on Normandy in June 1944. Of course, Stalin also demanded a Western Front — not only to offset the terrible losses incurred by the Red Army (Stalin would later say, "You paid with your steel, we paid with our blood"), but to also prevent rival Allied forces from establishing a foothold in Eastern and Central Europe. He was already looking ahead to post-war Europe and the creation of a communist bloc. But had Churchill gotten his way, it's likely that an exceptionally strong Allied invasion of both Italy and the Balkans would have occurred. Alternately (or in supplemental fashion), an invasion force could have come through Norway (which is why Hitler insisted on stationing over 400,000 troops there over the course of the entire war — even as Berlin burned). The complexion of the war would have been vastly different, with the bulk of anti-Axis forces coming from the east and south. It's difficult to predict what would have happened next, but a German defeat would have still been likely. Though it's interesting to think about France's fate given such a scenario. 7. The July 1944 Plot to Assassinate Hitler Succeeds
The 20 July 1944 plot to assassinate Adolf Hitler was a tragedy on multiple levels. Not only did it fail in its primary objective, but it led to the capture of 7,000 people, of which 4,980 were executed. Worse, it resulted in a retrenched and further radicalized Nazi party. Called Operation Valkyrie, the plot was organized by Wehrmacht officers who wanted Hitler out of the picture. They were hoping to make a separate peace with the Allies and continue the war against the USSR. It's highly unlikely, however, that the Western Allies would have gone for it (recalling Roosevelt's infamous "unconditional surrender" speech — and the fact that the Allies already had an agreement in place stating no separate peace under any circumstances). There's been much debate over what would have happened had Hitler been killed at that stage in the war. It's unlikely that his death would have resulted in the collapse of the Nazi party or the war effort. Even Claus von Stauffenberg, a leading member of the Valkyrie Plot, accepted that he would "go down in German history as a traitor." Indeed, despite the sorry state of the war, the cult of personality surrounding Hitler was very much alive and well. Had the plot been successful, however, a likely scenario would have seen either Hermann Göring or the fanatical Heinrich Himmler ascend to the lead role. Either of them would have had the plotters captured and executed. The Nazis would have continued the war, but there would have been an increased chance of an early surrender (though, the regime would have undoubtedly been accused of committing a Great War-like Stab in the Back). Germany could have potentially avoided the cataclysm that was to befall them in the following months. Another possible scenario is that the death of Hitler could have kick-started a more vociferous internal resistance movement — one that could have even started a civil war. But owing to widespread German patriotism and sense of duty, this scenario is quite improbable. 8. Stalin's Red Army Continues West After Taking Berlin
By the time the Battle of Stalingrad had ended, the Soviet Union had transitioned itself from Great Power status to something approximating a Superpower. By early 1943, the war was no longer in doubt, with Stalin's Red Army persistently pushing the Wehrmacht back towards Germany. And as it went, it gobbled up territories that would later form an Iron Curtain separating Eastern Europe from the West. But as historian Anthony Beevor has noted, Stalin —for a brief time — seriously considered taking all of Europe for himself. And he might have been able to do it, despite the fact that Russia was importing copious amounts of material and equipment from the U.S. (Russian soldiers were eating American canned food and driving in Jeeps and Studebaker trucks). But after the fall of Berlin, the Red Army consisted of 12 million men spread across an astounding 300 divisions. Meanwhile, the Allies had 4 million men spread across 85 divisions. By V-E Day, the Americans were still several months away from developing the bomb — enough time for the Soviets to push the Allies back into the French waters. What would have happened after that, with the advent of the bomb, is anyone's guess. 9. Churchill Immediately Starts World War III
On the flip side of this alt-history coin, we also seriously need to consider Churchill's Operation Unthinkable — the continuation of the war against the Soviet Union after the fall of Nazi Germany. Like Stalin, Churchill had anticipated hostilities after the war and wondered if there was no better time to wage World War III than the present. But cooler heads prevailed. The Red Army stopped at Berlin and Eisenhower never considered waging war against the Reds (unlike his compatriate, George Patton). 10. The Allies Invade Japan Instead of Dropping the Bomb
The bomb was dropped on Japan because military experts presented President Truman with projections showing millions of U.S. casualties by the time Japan would surrender (these projections were based on casualties incurred during the fight for Okinawa). Had Truman refused to drop the bomb, Operation Downfall would have been put into effect — and it would have been the largest amphibious operation in human history. The two-part invasion was set to commence in October of 1945. Operation Olympic would have seen the capture of the southern third of the southernmost main Japanese island, Kyushu, while Okinawa would have been used as a staging area. Then, in spring 1946, Operation Coronet would have seen the invasion of the Kanto Plain, near Tokyo. Airbases on Kyushu captured in Operation Olympic would have allowed land-based air support for this second phase of the attack. In total, 30 divisions would have been required. In response, the Japanese were preparing for an all-out defense of Kyushu. Had it gone down, it would have been a bloody mess. Lordroel A lot here but quick thoughts: 1) Possible but I don't know if Germany could have knocked out Britain. The Channel still makes a very effective moat and Britain was out-producing the Germans in many areas, including air power for much of the war until the Germans fully mobilised after Stalingrad. Even if they do this from June 40 onwards its going to be a huge and costly battle with no certainty of success for Germany. Plus the idea of Britain falling and its navy and industry coming under German control is the thing, other than a direct attack on the US, most likely to bring the US off the fence. That could still make for a very long and bitter war. Stalin has potentially what he wanted in terms of fascists and democrats involved in a bitter and prolonged war draining both of them. Alternatively it could be that the western powers are unwilling to wage a bitter fight against the massive forces at German disposal and some compromise peace is agreed which leads to a tri-polar world. If Britain did fall I'm not sure that Germany would find the Soviets that easy. The latter would still have the problem of Stalin's stupidity and poor leadership, which at times rivalled that of Hitler. However an extra year to rearm and rebuild after the purges would greatly boost the Red Army. Also one reason Stalin refused to accept Hitler would attack was that it would be stupid for him to do so while still fighting Britain. If Britain had fallen there is a much clearer and immediate threat to Stalin and his empire. 2. Japan Refrains From Invading Pearl Harbor I think this is a far more dangerous threat. If the US isn't attacked and doesn't quickly join the conflict, at least in the Pacific, I could see Britain being forced to make peace with Japan and probably fairly quickly with Germany simply because it would be vastly overstretched in this position. Churchill would almost certainly fall and Britain might well have to make substantial concessions in both the ME and Pacific. Its difficult to tell who would have won in Europe then with possibly a peace of exhaustion between the Nazis and Soviets as the most likely result. Just to clarify the key point is not the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour, which was a tactical success but a strategic disaster of the 1st order for Japan, but that Japan doesn't attack any US controlled territory. Even if the US does declare war as a result, for a number of reasons Japan is in a superior position to OTL. 3. The Germans Take Moscow in 1941 This has been the centre of much debate as you say but I tend to the view it would have been virtually impossible for the Germans to take Moscow in 41, for the following reasons: a) The delay was partly due to the campaign against Yugoslavia and Greece but even if that had been avoided I doubt the Germans could have attacked effectively that much earlier due to the wet spring conditions. b) The diversion to secure the encirclement around Kiev is often sited but without it could AGS have defeated those sizeable forces on its own. If not AGC's attack towards Moscow leaves it on an exposed salient with its southern flank very exposed. c) As sources say the vanguard of German forces were on the outskirts of Moscow, which is a huge urban area. Provided there isn't a pretty much total collapse of Soviet will to resist, which is possibly but difficult to tell how likely, a more successful Operation Typhoon could be a fatal disaster for the Germans. You could well have an earlier and much larger Stalingrad fought in Moscow. While the Red Army is markedly weaker, in both quality and quantity in Dec 41 than a year later AGC is at the very limits of its supply lines and pretty much totally unprepared for the winter about to hit. If the Germans got to Moscow say a couple of weeks earlier and started to fight their way in I can't see Hitler being willing to accept the city can't be won at that time and insisting on continuing the attack come what may. The Red Army probably won't have the strength for a huge encirclement as in Operation Saturn but AGC could be bled white, with much larger losses than OTL and basically collapse, similar to the French in 1812 with a retreat turning into a rout. 4. Russia and Germany Make a Separate Peace Its possible, and more likely than Hitler making a separate peace with the western powers once the US is in the war but as you say extremely unlikely. Neither leader has any trust for the other and when discussions did occur in 43 they were so far apart as to be unreasonable. [Hitler wanted something roughly along the Dnieper while I think the Soviets were suggesting the pre-1914 border]. Also given the hatred between the two sides any such peace would have come at huge political costs and while both sides were ruthless dictatorships a lot of people would have been deeply unhappy. 5. The Nazis Develop the Bomb Before the Allies There are serious problems here with finding the resources, even without the dead-ends the German programmes [there were a number of them given the bureaucratic nature of the Nazi regime] dived into. Its not just building the bomb itself, which is going to be difficult to hide from the western allies who will seek to bomb the crap out of any such project and if they think the Nazis are getting close might even resort to massed gas attacks, at which point things get very nasty for continental Europe. There's also the delivery of such a weapon. You need a delivery system which means either a large strategic bomber, which the Nazis don't have the resources for without giving up a lot of other projects or just possibly a suicidal U boat mission. Not sure of a Fat Man type bomb could fit into a normal submarine and even if it could you need to get through allied ASW defences and can only attack coastal targets. Especially since warheads are going to expensive and few in number in early years this could be very hit and miss. Then again allied stocks of mustard gas and possibly even anthrax come into play. 6. No Western Front I must admit I'm a fan of this approach. Remember it being mentioned in one of the alternative history books, think it was one called the Hitler Options, - checking yes, Chapter 6, through the Soft Underbelly. There are a number of advantages of a serious concentration on the Med. a) Instead of waiting until the US has built up massive forces in Britain [and maintaining them there in a relatively small island under siege] you can deploy them as they become available. b) Europe has very good east-west railways and lines of communications but, at the time, poor north south ones. As such its more difficult for the Germans to switch forces from Germany, the eastern front or occupation of France [as they still have to have some forces there] to the Balkans than between the other fronts. Correspondingly its more difficult for the allies to storm quickly northwards but if your starting in say 43 with smaller forces that shouldn't be the intent. c) As well as the strategic target of Romanian oil going through the Med gives the opportunity to take out German allies [Italy, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary] who provide a lot of troops to support German forces, especially in the east. Also once you have taken Bulgaria out then it should be practical to strong arm the Turks into allowing supplies through the straits which is far more efficient in sending aid to the Soviets than other routes and can go virtually directly to those units fighting their way through the Ukraine. d) If you can commit the US to commit to this route, especially in making amphibious shipping available then Italy turns from a very tough operating fighting all the way up the peninsula to a potentially very deadly trap for any German forces there. Simultaneous landings on east and west coasts, with massive air support, should be able to sever the relatively narrow coastal plains and then the rivers cutting east and west along the peninsula become barriers not to the advancing allies but the Germans trying to fight their way northwards. As in the chapter I mention, recommend it as a good read, a landing in N France is still possible, as part of the end game as things fall apart for Nazi Germany, rather than seeking to attack them while strong there. I don't believe Norway would have been a practical alternative. It offers some options, making the Murmansk run a lot safer for the allied convoys and can provide some bases for attacking Germany by air but doesn't have the land and other resources to be a base for an attack on N Germany, plus you would also need Denmark to be able to get into the Baltic. 7. The July 1944 Plot to Assassinate Hitler Succeeds I would agree with most of your comments here. Can't see even a successful assassination of Hitler and [as you said even less likely] overthrowing of the Nazis leading to a quick peace as the German military had vastly unrealistic aims for what gains they would be allowed to keep. You might even prolong the war as a militarily lead Germany, with the population feeling desperate and deserted by the rejection of peace proposals, puts up a more efficient defence while there is more scope for German resentment after the war. 8. Stalin's Red Army Continues West After Taking Berlin He might have tried this but I doubt it would have succeeded. The Red Army has numbers but is operating over long and exposed supply lines through often bitterly hostile territory. Not just German, Hungarian and Romania but Polish, Ukrainian and just about everybody else. The allies would be enraged at such a betrayal and they have massive air strength while with Lend-Lease cut off the Red Army will quickly be consuming itself as it runs out of supplies and equipment. Its possible that Stalin could get vital support from communist elements in western Europe, including possibly in western forces, but I doubt it would be enough and expect that the Red Army would be stopped either at the Rhine or say near the French border. Then things get messy. There is a long grind ahead while the Japanese will have got the ally they wanted in the Soviets and hence will no longer fear about their northern border and may get some supplies of raw materials, which will make them more determined to resist. The bomb will be used, probably with early targets as Moscow and Baku and it could be a bitter fight. 9. Churchill Immediately Starts World War III I was surprised checking up that the 1st of the two Operation Unthinkable plans was actually offensive, but not surprised it was quickly rejected. [See en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable] The 2nd one made plans about what would happen if the Soviets attacked the western powers, which runs into option 8 above. This occurs a little later with the US already withdrawing forces for operations against Japan or to demobilise them so the odds were worse, although I am surprised the British leaders were so worried that they would be pushed totally from the continent. So possibly I was too optimistic in my response above. 10. The Allies Invade Japan Instead of Dropping the Bomb Presuming the bomb wasn't used for whatever reason and Japan fights as long as some sources predicted, then it could easily make something like a 50% increase in the total number of deaths in WWII. [Although that may exclude the losses in China pre-1941]. Both because of the mix of massive American fire-power against massed human wave attacks by fanatical resistance and probably even more the condition of a lot of the Japanese population by this time. You would probably see a complete collapse of the Japanese economy and transport systems, already badly battered, accompanied by mass starvation and pandemic disease outbreaks. It would be very nasty and even if there is a Korean war a few years down the line I doubt Japan would be in any condition to stage the sort of recovery it managed OTL. Also bitterness and mistrust could be so great that Japan goes communist or at the very least the US needs to keep a stronger presence there. However, while the bombs were important in prompting a Japanese surrender I don't know if even they would have continued to resist all the way through into mid-46. The invasion of Manchuria by the Soviets both removed an unrealistic hope that the latter might be an ally or at least friendly intermediate for them but also raised the fear of communist control of Japan itself while the massive losses that would be suffered in trying to prevent the initial landings in Operation Olympic is almost certain to take them over the edge into surrender. Anyway, some interesting ideas. Thanks for responding, i would assume these 10 topics are among the most World War II AH ideas that show up, or are there more that can be added on how the Second World War could have ended differently.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 11, 2016 14:53:42 GMT
Lordroel A lot here but quick thoughts: 1) Possible but I don't know if Germany could have knocked out Britain. The Channel still makes a very effective moat and Britain was out-producing the Germans in many areas, including air power for much of the war until the Germans fully mobilised after Stalingrad. Even if they do this from June 40 onwards its going to be a huge and costly battle with no certainty of success for Germany. Plus the idea of Britain falling and its navy and industry coming under German control is the thing, other than a direct attack on the US, most likely to bring the US off the fence. That could still make for a very long and bitter war. Stalin has potentially what he wanted in terms of fascists and democrats involved in a bitter and prolonged war draining both of them. Alternatively it could be that the western powers are unwilling to wage a bitter fight against the massive forces at German disposal and some compromise peace is agreed which leads to a tri-polar world. If Britain did fall I'm not sure that Germany would find the Soviets that easy. The latter would still have the problem of Stalin's stupidity and poor leadership, which at times rivalled that of Hitler. However an extra year to rearm and rebuild after the purges would greatly boost the Red Army. Also one reason Stalin refused to accept Hitler would attack was that it would be stupid for him to do so while still fighting Britain. If Britain had fallen there is a much clearer and immediate threat to Stalin and his empire. 2. Japan Refrains From Invading Pearl Harbor I think this is a far more dangerous threat. If the US isn't attacked and doesn't quickly join the conflict, at least in the Pacific, I could see Britain being forced to make peace with Japan and probably fairly quickly with Germany simply because it would be vastly overstretched in this position. Churchill would almost certainly fall and Britain might well have to make substantial concessions in both the ME and Pacific. Its difficult to tell who would have won in Europe then with possibly a peace of exhaustion between the Nazis and Soviets as the most likely result. Just to clarify the key point is not the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour, which was a tactical success but a strategic disaster of the 1st order for Japan, but that Japan doesn't attack any US controlled territory. Even if the US does declare war as a result, for a number of reasons Japan is in a superior position to OTL. 3. The Germans Take Moscow in 1941 This has been the centre of much debate as you say but I tend to the view it would have been virtually impossible for the Germans to take Moscow in 41, for the following reasons: a) The delay was partly due to the campaign against Yugoslavia and Greece but even if that had been avoided I doubt the Germans could have attacked effectively that much earlier due to the wet spring conditions. b) The diversion to secure the encirclement around Kiev is often sited but without it could AGS have defeated those sizeable forces on its own. If not AGC's attack towards Moscow leaves it on an exposed salient with its southern flank very exposed. c) As sources say the vanguard of German forces were on the outskirts of Moscow, which is a huge urban area. Provided there isn't a pretty much total collapse of Soviet will to resist, which is possibly but difficult to tell how likely, a more successful Operation Typhoon could be a fatal disaster for the Germans. You could well have an earlier and much larger Stalingrad fought in Moscow. While the Red Army is markedly weaker, in both quality and quantity in Dec 41 than a year later AGC is at the very limits of its supply lines and pretty much totally unprepared for the winter about to hit. If the Germans got to Moscow say a couple of weeks earlier and started to fight their way in I can't see Hitler being willing to accept the city can't be won at that time and insisting on continuing the attack come what may. The Red Army probably won't have the strength for a huge encirclement as in Operation Saturn but AGC could be bled white, with much larger losses than OTL and basically collapse, similar to the French in 1812 with a retreat turning into a rout. 4. Russia and Germany Make a Separate Peace Its possible, and more likely than Hitler making a separate peace with the western powers once the US is in the war but as you say extremely unlikely. Neither leader has any trust for the other and when discussions did occur in 43 they were so far apart as to be unreasonable. [Hitler wanted something roughly along the Dnieper while I think the Soviets were suggesting the pre-1914 border]. Also given the hatred between the two sides any such peace would have come at huge political costs and while both sides were ruthless dictatorships a lot of people would have been deeply unhappy. 5. The Nazis Develop the Bomb Before the Allies There are serious problems here with finding the resources, even without the dead-ends the German programmes [there were a number of them given the bureaucratic nature of the Nazi regime] dived into. Its not just building the bomb itself, which is going to be difficult to hide from the western allies who will seek to bomb the crap out of any such project and if they think the Nazis are getting close might even resort to massed gas attacks, at which point things get very nasty for continental Europe. There's also the delivery of such a weapon. You need a delivery system which means either a large strategic bomber, which the Nazis don't have the resources for without giving up a lot of other projects or just possibly a suicidal U boat mission. Not sure of a Fat Man type bomb could fit into a normal submarine and even if it could you need to get through allied ASW defences and can only attack coastal targets. Especially since warheads are going to expensive and few in number in early years this could be very hit and miss. Then again allied stocks of mustard gas and possibly even anthrax come into play. 6. No Western Front I must admit I'm a fan of this approach. Remember it being mentioned in one of the alternative history books, think it was one called the Hitler Options, - checking yes, Chapter 6, through the Soft Underbelly. There are a number of advantages of a serious concentration on the Med. a) Instead of waiting until the US has built up massive forces in Britain [and maintaining them there in a relatively small island under siege] you can deploy them as they become available. b) Europe has very good east-west railways and lines of communications but, at the time, poor north south ones. As such its more difficult for the Germans to switch forces from Germany, the eastern front or occupation of France [as they still have to have some forces there] to the Balkans than between the other fronts. Correspondingly its more difficult for the allies to storm quickly northwards but if your starting in say 43 with smaller forces that shouldn't be the intent. c) As well as the strategic target of Romanian oil going through the Med gives the opportunity to take out German allies [Italy, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary] who provide a lot of troops to support German forces, especially in the east. Also once you have taken Bulgaria out then it should be practical to strong arm the Turks into allowing supplies through the straits which is far more efficient in sending aid to the Soviets than other routes and can go virtually directly to those units fighting their way through the Ukraine. d) If you can commit the US to commit to this route, especially in making amphibious shipping available then Italy turns from a very tough operating fighting all the way up the peninsula to a potentially very deadly trap for any German forces there. Simultaneous landings on east and west coasts, with massive air support, should be able to sever the relatively narrow coastal plains and then the rivers cutting east and west along the peninsula become barriers not to the advancing allies but the Germans trying to fight their way northwards. As in the chapter I mention, recommend it as a good read, a landing in N France is still possible, as part of the end game as things fall apart for Nazi Germany, rather than seeking to attack them while strong there. I don't believe Norway would have been a practical alternative. It offers some options, making the Murmansk run a lot safer for the allied convoys and can provide some bases for attacking Germany by air but doesn't have the land and other resources to be a base for an attack on N Germany, plus you would also need Denmark to be able to get into the Baltic. 7. The July 1944 Plot to Assassinate Hitler Succeeds I would agree with most of your comments here. Can't see even a successful assassination of Hitler and [as you said even less likely] overthrowing of the Nazis leading to a quick peace as the German military had vastly unrealistic aims for what gains they would be allowed to keep. You might even prolong the war as a militarily lead Germany, with the population feeling desperate and deserted by the rejection of peace proposals, puts up a more efficient defence while there is more scope for German resentment after the war. 8. Stalin's Red Army Continues West After Taking Berlin He might have tried this but I doubt it would have succeeded. The Red Army has numbers but is operating over long and exposed supply lines through often bitterly hostile territory. Not just German, Hungarian and Romania but Polish, Ukrainian and just about everybody else. The allies would be enraged at such a betrayal and they have massive air strength while with Lend-Lease cut off the Red Army will quickly be consuming itself as it runs out of supplies and equipment. Its possible that Stalin could get vital support from communist elements in western Europe, including possibly in western forces, but I doubt it would be enough and expect that the Red Army would be stopped either at the Rhine or say near the French border. Then things get messy. There is a long grind ahead while the Japanese will have got the ally they wanted in the Soviets and hence will no longer fear about their northern border and may get some supplies of raw materials, which will make them more determined to resist. The bomb will be used, probably with early targets as Moscow and Baku and it could be a bitter fight. 9. Churchill Immediately Starts World War III I was surprised checking up that the 1st of the two Operation Unthinkable plans was actually offensive, but not surprised it was quickly rejected. [See en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable] The 2nd one made plans about what would happen if the Soviets attacked the western powers, which runs into option 8 above. This occurs a little later with the US already withdrawing forces for operations against Japan or to demobilise them so the odds were worse, although I am surprised the British leaders were so worried that they would be pushed totally from the continent. So possibly I was too optimistic in my response above. 10. The Allies Invade Japan Instead of Dropping the Bomb Presuming the bomb wasn't used for whatever reason and Japan fights as long as some sources predicted, then it could easily make something like a 50% increase in the total number of deaths in WWII. [Although that may exclude the losses in China pre-1941]. Both because of the mix of massive American fire-power against massed human wave attacks by fanatical resistance and probably even more the condition of a lot of the Japanese population by this time. You would probably see a complete collapse of the Japanese economy and transport systems, already badly battered, accompanied by mass starvation and pandemic disease outbreaks. It would be very nasty and even if there is a Korean war a few years down the line I doubt Japan would be in any condition to stage the sort of recovery it managed OTL. Also bitterness and mistrust could be so great that Japan goes communist or at the very least the US needs to keep a stronger presence there. However, while the bombs were important in prompting a Japanese surrender I don't know if even they would have continued to resist all the way through into mid-46. The invasion of Manchuria by the Soviets both removed an unrealistic hope that the latter might be an ally or at least friendly intermediate for them but also raised the fear of communist control of Japan itself while the massive losses that would be suffered in trying to prevent the initial landings in Operation Olympic is almost certain to take them over the edge into surrender. Anyway, some interesting ideas. Thanks for responding, i would assume these 10 topics are among the most World War II AH ideas that show up, or are there more that can be added on how the Second World War could have ended differently. Oh there are many, many more. Even if you don't include changes before 1-9-39. For instance the P-51 Mustang was a disappointment because its initial engine was hopelessly underpowered. It was only that the recommendation of an RAF pilot that it be re-engined with a Merlin, still in short supply, was taken up, initially by the British who had bought a few of the planes, that led to it being developed into the master aircraft it became. Someone might have done something similar later but possibly not and if so the USAAF in Europe could have taken much greater losses. There were other fighters with similar range, although not quite the same performance. Or there was the German a/c that crashed in neutral Belgium during the winter of 1939-40, with a copy of the German plan for the invasion of the Low Countries aboard. I think it was destroyed before the Belgians got their hands on it but the Germans didn't know that. True there was already concerns about the attack, which was basically a repeat of the 1914 offensive but on a larger scale, but this was a trigger in the change of plans than meant that just became a feint while the main attack was the drive through the Ardennes. If this hadn't have occurred the wide sweep planned would have been exactly what the allies were expecting. The Germans had a clear edge in aspects of doctrine, especially combined arms with close air support but their attack into the Low Countries could have been stalled and the fall of France avoided.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 11, 2016 15:06:27 GMT
Oh there are many, many more. Even if you don't include changes before 1-9-39. But those are not the fun once to discuse. For instance the P-51 Mustang was a disappointment because its initial engine was hopelessly underpowered. It was only that the recommendation of an RAF pilot that it be re-engined with a Merlin, still in short supply, was taken up, initially by the British who had bought a few of the planes, that led to it being developed into the master aircraft it became. Someone might have done something similar later but possibly not and if so the USAAF in Europe could have taken much greater losses. There were other fighters with similar range, although not quite the same performance. Yes the British who help the Americans make one of the best prop fighter of the war.
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jun 11, 2016 15:37:21 GMT
A lot of this is pulp AH. Most of it I've seen before and debated quite heavily.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 11, 2016 15:38:31 GMT
A lot of this is pulp AH. Most of it I've seen before and debated quite heavily. And thus i created this thread, is help to prevent 10 threads from appearing here while we can do it in one.
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jun 11, 2016 18:33:11 GMT
A lot of this is pulp AH. Most of it I've seen before and debated quite heavily. And thus i created this thread, is help to prevent 10 threads from appearing here while we can do it in one. Smart and economical of you to do, then.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 11, 2016 18:45:00 GMT
And thus i created this thread, is help to prevent 10 threads from appearing here while we can do it in one. Smart and economical of you to do, then. Thanks, also posted this on the two Facebook AH groups.
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jun 11, 2016 18:48:44 GMT
Smart and economical of you to do, then. Thanks, also posted this on the two Facebook AH groups. This is good marketing; making yourself a part of the community, not just posting ads everywhere.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 11, 2016 19:07:52 GMT
Thanks, also posted this on the two Facebook AH groups. This is good marketing; making yourself a part of the community, not just posting ads everywhere. 50% is advertisement. 50% is getting good things related to AH out to the people who love it.
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jun 11, 2016 19:16:32 GMT
This is good marketing; making yourself a part of the community, not just posting ads everywhere. 50% is advertisement. 50% is getting good things related to AH out to the people who love it. I'd say the two go together hand in hand.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 11, 2016 19:34:23 GMT
50% is advertisement. 50% is getting good things related to AH out to the people who love it. I'd say the two go together hand in hand. But which of these 10 scenario you never want to have a thread started on the forum.
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jun 11, 2016 20:31:50 GMT
I'd say the two go together hand in hand. But which of these 10 scenario you never want to have a thread started on the forum. The atomic bomb one is particularly egregious.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 11, 2016 20:37:47 GMT
But which of these 10 scenario you never want to have a thread started on the forum. The atomic bomb one is particularly egregious. Yes that is one that belongs in the ASB section.
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