El Camino de la Sangre/The Road of Blood

The most immediate effects of killing off Churchill would be felt on the domestic front, as the Tonypandy Riots of 1910-11 would either be butterflied away or it would have a different outcome. I might end up setting a scenario where Lord Salisbury could somehow lose an election a lot earlier, and we may also end up seeing the necessity of developing a kind of manufacturing base in the colonies. 

Britain's victory in this version of the Second Boer War would be all but assured, but it would depend on how costly the victory would be, since the Boers might make smarter moves. However, the only question that I had was that why didn't Britain try to open up another front against the Transvaal Republic from their colony in Rhodesia? A two pronged attack from both the Cape Colony and Rhodesia would have actually shortened the conflict, and it would have proven to be extremely devastating for the Boer cause.

I would probably say that it might be the Philippines that would be extremely traumatized by a longer war against the US, although the Americans wouldn't have it easy in this conflict as well, since now they have to deal with a general that ironically enough, they had a lot of respect for. In fact, OTL Antonio Luna's death had pretty much sealed the fate of the Philippines, since without a general that knows a bit more about military affairs than the other generals, it was only a matter of time before the OTL president (who is now dead, which was the PoD) was eventually captured. Look for the Philippines to develop its own strand of anti-imperialism that might be borderline Marxist.

My guess is that almost the entirety of Asia might actually become far more anti-Western, though in the Prologue (and IOTL as well), there are hints of the Mongolian independence movement receiving some significant backing from Russia. Russia's reasoning for backing Mongolian independence was to acquire a buffer state against the Chinese. 

Another possible side effect of having a longer lasting Second Boer War would be that Britain would have to postpone or cancel their plans for the Tibetan Expedition, since those forces there, along with the colonial armies of the British Raj, will have to be used in a British intervention against both the Boxers, as well as the Succession Crisis between supporters of Prince Pujun and Prince Puwei. It would basically be the Wars of the Roses, but with modern weaponry, and a far larger population that is becoming extremely hostile to the ruling Manchu Qing Dynasty. 

On the other hand, we would still get a Dominion of Australia and a Dominion of New Zealand happening, plus a possible surviving Dominion of Newfoundland that practically acts as either the Northern Hemisphere version of New Zealand, or it becomes a direct part of the UK. 

It was indeed a blocking position, though the relief of Mafeking was at best a great British defensive action, and at worst, a Boer blunder. Why the blunder, is because the Boer commandos are essentially built as a guerrilla force, and attempting a siege would more likely suit a well equipped conventional army. On the other hand, I thought Rhodes himself would have been more open to the idea of tackling the danger that the Boers posed to southern Rhodesia, plus opening up another front from Rhodesia would have indeed shortened the war.

We might actually see more colonial troops being used in the conflict against the Boers, especially the ones from Canada and Australia. That would be somewhat an additional 90,000 to 100,000 more colonial soldiers that will add up to the already present of 200,000 British soldiers already in South Africa plus a possible deployment of say, another 150,000 troops from the UK proper.


Let's not forget that the early 1900s was the apex of Western imperialism, so there might also be a push from the hardline pro-war faction for greater escalation of the conflict in the Philippines, which in itself would face more opposition from the anti-war faction. Of course, Japan would have to restrict its own anti-Western sentiment to be mainly anti-US, although there may be a slight chance that we could have a rapprochement between Britain and Germany. The only problems would be that Wilhelm II was reckless in his naval expansion, and Edward VII personally detested Wilhelm II.

Most likely that Outer Mongolia would want Inner Mongolia to be included. Though Russia may not like the idea of a larger Mongolian state, due to its pan-Mongolic ideology that would be behind it, the civil war between the two claimants on the Qing throne might open a door to a larger Mongolian state expanding. However, Russia and Japan might also take advantage of this kind of chaos for their own purposes, as the Boxer Rebellion will be a bit more destructive.

I could see the naval arms race going on a different direction. For one thing, I actually think that the resources that were used to built the very first British HMS Dreadnought would have been used to build say, the C, D, and E-classes of submarines. The Germans were the first ones to actually use it to such devastating effect. I think that the main future of naval warfare in this TL would either be destroyers, submarines, and carriers, a lot sooner.
McKinley wouldn't get assassinated in this case, mostly because as we will see, he still wins the election. Someone else dies instead. I would say that a longer lasting Philippine-American War might actually result in America becoming a bit militarisitc much earlier, which could have some interesting effects if they end up in an alternate version of WWI.

It would be more like the British forces coming from Great Britain itself being transported by rail from the Cape Colony to Rhodesia instead of raising a local army from within the Rhodesian colony itself. However, I am not butterflying the events of Black Week, mostly because it might precipitate a much needed deeper reform of the British military for later campaigns against the Boers.

It is also true that a larger Mongolia that includes Inner Mongolia, would have to rely on Russia as its own ally and protector as well, although the population of Inner Mongolia is slightly larger than that of Outer Mongolia. 

On the other hand, here's the first chapter. 

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TURN ONE: OF FIRE, BLOOD AND POISON

The death of Emilio Aguinaldo in the Battle of Marilao River had a major effect on the entirety of the Philippine government, as the cabinet surrounding Prime Minister Apolinario Mabini had a heated discussion on who they should select as the new President. Luckily for them, Antonio Luna was far too busy managing the war effort but one of his subordinates, a Lieutenant Paco Roman, had suggested that they should establish a junta to centralize the war effort when he and General Luna were discussing it during the defense of Malolos from March 31st to April 4th. It was then that Lt. Roman suggested Jose Alejandrino for the position of President to Luna, but Luna disagreed, since Mabini could theoretically take the Presidency, while Alejandrino could take the post of Prime Minister. Thus, acting on General Luna's orders, Alejandrino would go to the cabinet ministers and nominated Mabini for the post of President while he himself will take the Prime Minister position. In turn, prominent flamboyant politician Pedro Paterno would become the new Foreign Minister. (1) Mabini would approve Alejandrino's suggestion, and on April 30th, Mabini would formally be sworn in as the second President of the Philippines. Yet, at the same time, Alejandrino was tasked by Luna to keep an eye on the cabinet ministers, in case one of them was feeding information to the Americans. Four days after Mabini was sworn in as the new President, he issued orders for the entire cabinet to evacuate to the town of Aritao in Nueva Vizcaya. Mabini's choice of Aritao was a strategically wise move: it lay at the foot of the Cordillera Mountains, which was the site of the mountain redoubt that General Luna had ordered the fortifications to be built. Additionally, Mabini would issue a controversial order that forever haunted much of his Presidency: he ordered the civilians to evacuate from their homes and burn their houses down to deprive the Americans of a much needed shelter from the occasional tropical storms. The results of Mabini's order was rather mixed: though the Americans were denied supplies and houses to guard their troops, they ordered engineers to build new houses that resembled the barracks seen in the American mainland. Furthermore, the destruction of the huts by Filipino civilians gave US Army General Adna Chafee, another officer stationed in the Philippines, an opportunity to rebuild the occupied town of Apalit into a proper American style small city. Ironically enough, Apalit would eventually become one of the fastest growing cities in the Philippine Republic, with immigrants arriving from Korea and Japan being the sizeable majority by 1970.

At the same time as the American successes in Luzon, the Filipino revolutionaries had scored a few significant victories in Visayas, and in Mindanao. In December of 1899, approximately 100 Filipino guerrillas had surprised a lone American supply depot in Seminara Island, just a few miles away from northern Samar. Though the guerrillas had managed to occupy Seminara Island, it was not until January 15th that American reinforcements would retake the islands. However, one of the war crimes that the American military had committed had taken place during another minor skirmish outside the town of Carigara, in Leyte Island. On February 8th, 1900, approximately over 900 US soldiers under the command of Major Littleton Waller had ambushed over 400 guerrilla fighters. When the guerrilla fighters surrendered, Major Waller rounded them up, and dragged them into Carigara, where they arrested over 200 civilians that were suspected of aiding the guerrillas. The American soldiers forced the captured guerrillas to dig large ditches for over 3 hours, before ordering his own soldiers to kill them. Once the captured guerrillas were executed. the rest of the American soldiers tied up the arrested civilians and ordered the Gatling gunners to kill them. The reprisals in Carigara would eventually result in over 1,300 civilians killed, though the series of atrocities would not end with the Carigara Massacre. Samar and Leyte will be known in the minds of anti-imperialists as the place of genocides. Even the succeeding Balangiga and Quinapondan Massacres of 1901 will dwarf of the Carigara massacres, as Major Waller would continue his rampage throughout those two islands.

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"Major Waller and General Jacob Smith were two American officers who gained notoriety during the Philippine-American War when their harsh military occupation policies had played a role in the massacres of Filipino civilians in the island of Samar and Leyte. However, General Smith's new position as the Military Governor-General of Visayas, along with Henry Ware Lawton's appointment as the Military Governor-General of Luzon and Leonard Wood's appointment as the Military Governor-General of Mindanao, would add to the greater misery that the Filipino civilians suffered. Though by now, 1900 was becoming an election year and both President William McKinley and his opponent in William Bryan were campaigning hard on the ongoing conflict in the Philippines. McKinley's campaign was built on winning the war in the Philippines, and that a second McKinley administration would escalate the war against the Filipino rebels, but will be a total pacification campaign. That McKinley's decision to use the death of Emilio Aguinaldo on the battlefield of the Marilao River as an example of how the United States will shorten the war garnered intense criticism from his opponents, especially the radical activists of the Anti-Imperialist League. The Anti-Imperialist League had grown horrified that a sitting US president can use his enemy's death as an example of what America is doing had confirmed their worst fears of a second McKinley administration being a more militaristic period. (2) Unfortunately, six months into the 1900 electoral campaign, the Democrats and their allies in the center and the left would be struck by a tragedy. On August 8, 1900, while greeting his audience after finishing his speech on Imperialism, William Bryan was shot twice; the first bullet struck him in the throat, and the second bullet struck him in the lung. He would instantly die from the wounds he sustained. At the same time, the assassin named Michael Czolgosz (3), who was a veteran of the Philippine-American War, had shot himself after being cornered by Indianapolis law enforcement. Before his death, the veteran Czolgosz had written in a suicide note his reasons for killing Mr. Bryan: fearful that the war in the Philippines might eventually end in an American defeat, and therefore the sacrifices that his comrades had made, would be all for nothing, Czolgosz acted to prevent Bryan from winning. An emergency election to replace Adlai Stevenson I, who now took Bryan's place, as Vice President was held on August 29th, with David Hill becoming the new Vice Presidential Candidate. Ultimately, the murder of William Bryan proved to be pointless, as President McKinley would be re-elected in November of 1900. The second McKinley administration will now become the Era of Fire, Blood, and Poison, as American militarism had become more pronounced. Additionally, the Aparri Incident that occurred back in September of 1899 would lead to President McKinley's decision to improve ties with Japan's nearby rival, Russia. To the Jewish organizations that played a role in helping their ethnic brethren escape from the Tsarist pogroms, McKinley's decision to back Russian ambitions in Asia over that of Japan was considered a slap in the face, as the American government is essentially rewarding the Tsarist government for its brutal treatment of the Jews. Indeed, One of McKinley's biggest backers, John Jacob Astor IV, whose family had funded McKinley's presidential campaign, was sent to the court of Russian Tsar Nicholas II, along with several other delegates working on behalf of US Secretary of State John Hay. Yet, one of the biggest scandals that have struck the Russian Empire occurred on February 21st, 1901, when the Tsar's personal carriage was held up for a three hour delay because another train was passing by and both trains were on the same rail line. (4) The delay occurred just approximately 300 kilometers outside the city of Tyumen. The 3 hour delay eventually turned into a 21 hour delay, and by the time Nicholas II's train was able to resume its journey, the Tsar himself complained to the train operator as to why there was a huge delay. The operator promptly responded by saying that the Trans-Siberian Railway only had one track, to which the Tsar was dumbfounded. By the time he arrived in the city of Vladivostok to receive the American delegates, it was already March 6th (as additional delays in Irkutsk and Ulan Ude had added to his woes). Needless to say, the American delegates were not happy with the late arrival, but Nicholas II's complaints about the Trans-Siberian Railway being a one track railway had stunned both Astor and the other American delegates." From 'McKinley and the Rise of the American Empire', released by American Broadcasting Network, August 25th, 2010.

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Excerpts from 'When Death Came at China's Door: Two Conflicts that Destroyed the Qing'
by: Masao Takenaka
University of Northern British Columbia Printing Press, released on October 12, 2017

Chapter Four: Boxers and Claimants

In addition to the Mongolian separatists that launched an uprising against the Qing on July 19th of 1900, the conflict between the supporters of Prince Pujun, known for his title of the Guoliang Emperor, and those who support the claim of Prince Puwei, who has taken the title of the Yongnian Emperor has erupted. The reactionaries have taken control of a good portion of northern and central China, especially Gansu, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Henan provinces. Puwei's supporters however, had the advantage of controlling the Manchu heartland, as they took control of Fengtian, Heilongjiang, and Jilin. In addition, the same Russian delegate that traveled to Vladivostok for a meeting with top American officials led by John Jacob Astor IV had dispatched Sergey Sazonov to Mudanjiang for further diplomatic wrangling with Prince Puwei's faction. Sazonov was instructed by Nicholas II to offer his faction the city of Port Arthur, or Qingniwa in Mandarin Chinese, to Puwei, in exchange for Russia acquiring another warm water port elsewhere. That elsewhere eventually resulted in the Russian Empire acquiring a small sliver of northeastern Hamgyong province where the future city of Nazhin, or Najin in Korean, would be built. However, the Boxer Rebellion that broke out at the same time as the Qing Succession War, had electrified much of the Han Chinese population to the point where there were more defections from two Green Standard Armies controlled by both claimants to the Boxers.

The first province to fall under the control of the Boxers was Fujian, known for its close proximity to Japanese Taiwan. It was largely thanks to the fallout from the notorious incident in the Philippine port of Aparri where the Japanese freight ship the Nunobiki Maru had been sunk by an American warship after US military authorities spotted a large shipment of Murata rifles destined for the Philippine Republican Army, that Japan would not join the Eight Nation Alliance in suppressing the Boxer Revolt. Additionally, the US couldn't join in the suppression of the Boxers, as it needed to focus all of its energies in the Philippine Islands. As a result, the Japanese government largely saw the Boxers as a useful patsy in weakening the Qing Dynasty a bit further. Likewise, the Russians didn't view the Mongolian separatists as a patsy, but rather a kind of shield against any revanchist Chinese state. Tragically, the Qing Succession War would split the Eight Nation Alliance more than anything else, as the German Empire under Kaiser Wilhelm II would fully support Prince Pujun's claim on the throne. The Germans didn't support Pujun because of Dowager Empress Cixi's reactionary allies, but rather because they saw Pujun as a useful puppet that would serve German interests. Likewise, Austria-Hungary has thrown its diplomatic support behind Pujun as well, for the sake of stability. Not only that, a Pujun/Guoliang-ruled China would be a useful ally against Russia, should the latter end up in a war against Austria-Hungary. Only Russia and France would throw their support behind Prince Puwei's claim on the throne, though in June of 1900, Britain would also show their diplomatic support for Prince Puwei/Yongnian Emperor. The United States, as mentioned earlier, would not show support behind either claimant, as it was distracted by the Philippine-American War.

The first battle between the two claimants occurred on June 28th, 1900, in the city of Chengde. Pujun's forces, which was numbered around 13,000 soldiers, against Puwei's 17,000 defenders. Though both sides had initially lacked artillery pieces, they made up for it with cavalry equipped with the latest Mauser rifles. Though the siege only lasted for only two weeks, Pujun's forces were forced to pull back from Chengde when it became apparent that the Boxers were gaining more strength in Shandong province, and had to redeploy much of its army to suppress the rebellion. Yet, a mutiny led by several Han Chinese soldiers outside Binzhou on July 12th had resulted in their defection to the Boxers, though they were grouped under a separate unit, as the Boxers themselves mostly carried spears and swords. In addition, the Mutual Defense Pact of the Southeastern Provinces, an agreement made by several governors who opposed the Imperial call for a declaration of war against the intervening foreign powers involved in the Succession Crisis, had taken the task of suppressing the Boxers themselves. However, the governors of the southeastern Chinese provinces that were a part of the Mutual Defense Pact, had not taken either side of the claimants, since they feared being punished for choosing the wrong side. Luckily or unluckily for the governors of those southeastern provinces, they would have to deal with another uprising in the north. This time, both claimants would be surprised and stunned when on July 19th, 1900, the Mongolian War of National Liberation and Independence would break out. Prince Tögs-Ochiryn Namnansüren and many other Outer and Inner Mongolian leaders, would declare Mongolia's independence and formally asked the international community to recognize their sovereignty. Only Russia and Japan would recognize the independence of Mongolia the very next day, as many other foreign powers that have chosen to intervene in the Qing Succession Crisis, recognized Qing sovereignty over Mongolia. However, the Mongolian independence activists would not only fight for the freedom of their homeland, but to avenge the deaths of the Inner Mongols that were slaughtered during the Jindandao Massacre of 1891.

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"The Sipido Incident of April 4th, 1900 had revealed the growing anarchist threat, not just to Europe, but the whole world at large, in such ways that it has never experienced before. That the incident named after the assassin who killed Britain's heir apparent Prince Edward, was more of a directed anger at the British Empire over the suffering inflicted upon the Boer peoples of South Africa, than ideological motivation. Prince Edward's death had a negative effect on an already soured relations between Great Britain and Belgium, though the ideological brand that Jean-Baptiste Sipido had displayed awakened Europe to the anarchist danger. In response, Belgian authorities began to crack down on anarchist organizations to cleanse itself of such a danger. Georges Thonar, one of the few Belgian anarchist leaders who was responsible for leading an anarchist section in the town of Liege, was arrested on August 16th, 1900, by Belgian police. However, the nature of which he was interrogated was rather brutal; on one occasion, the police had stepped on Thonar's fingers, causing him to yell out in pain. Likewise, Thonar was also subjected to water boarding and other physical beatings, before proceeding to break several bones in his body, especially his legs and knees. Yet, the nature of Thonar's torture at the hands of Belgian authorities had triggered a backlash, as several parcel bomb attacks had struck every building in Liege. In left-wing circles, the news of Thonar's torture had angered several leaders, including Emile Armand, who wrote an article that condemned both Sipido's hotheaded behavior in the murder of Prince Edward, and the Belgian police agents that tortured Thonar. The fact that Thonar would later die from wounds sustained by torture in November 6th of 1900, would electrify much of the anarchist and leftist worlds, as a general strike would be called by November 10th in the rest of Belgium. However, the Belgian General Strike of 1900 would coincide with a Congolese Revolt of the same year, as the Congolese laborers working in the rubber plantations, initiated the uprising in Sungamboyo against Belgian colonial authorities. The reports of appalling atrocities committed against the Congolese laborers that not only worked on the rubber plantations, but other mineral resource extractions, had garnered more hostility towards King Leopold II, to the point where the Belgian parliament was demanding that the king cede control of his personal Congolese domain to the Belgian government as a whole. By then, the uprising had spread into several other areas along the Yekokora and Lopori Rivers, culminating in the fall of Basankusu. Paul Lafargue, the son-in-law of Karl Marx, had written a book on the inevitability of the Congolese rebellion against their Belgian overlords as an example of a successful leftist version of the Roman slave revolts, though the political paralysis of the Belgian government as a result of the General Strike of 1900 crippled their ability to suppress the Congolese Revolt, paving the way for Africa's first attempt at creating a worker's republic, though that effort ended in failure, largely thanks to conflicting interests between the former slave laborers who differed in their ideological output." From 'Children of Anarchy', documentary released by PolitVision channel.

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Summary of American Foreign Policy of the Second McKinley Administration:

The growing escalation of the conflict between the United States and the Philippines had played a role in the growth of American militarism, as the McKinley administration had decided to pay attention to the development of its own navy. Although submarines have yet to play a role in the evolution of naval warfare, naval officers gave much of their output on the development of the submarines, especially the Plunger-class submarine. It was largely thanks to Britain's decision to cancel the project for a planned massive battleship in favor of a stronger development in its own submarines that would eventually phase out the era where massive battleships ruled the oceans. Although the concept of a two ocean navy was not yet fully materialized until the 1940s, it was first proposed by Elihu Root, shortly before he was replaced by Robert Bacon, as a necessary security measure in the event that the US would end up fighting a two front naval conflict. Although much of the shipbuilding hub mainly lay with the East Coast, the emerging importance of the Pacific has played a role in expanding the shipbuilding capabilities in the American Pacific Coast. Moreover, the US territory of Alaska has began to play a crucial role in the McKinley administration's foreign policy shift from being pro-Japan to anti-Japan, as a result of the Aparri Incident of 1899. However, President McKinley himself would gradually lose support of the Jewish bloc, as his decision to improve ties to the Tsarist government in Russia had garnered public outrage, in light of the Tsarist pogroms against its Jewish minority. However, both the Republican and Democratic Parties have historically been known for a tradition of virulent anti-Semitism, as they discouraged Jews from joining both parties. Indeed, when news of both the Kishinev (1903) and later on the infamous Slonim Pogrom of 1904 had reached the McKinley Administration, the President was at loss of words as to how he should respond. On one hand, the American Jewish population had become more politically active to the point where they could influence several politicians to persuade President McKinley to moderate or even reverse his decision to improve ties between the US and the Russian Empire. On the other hand, President McKinley could not afford to alienate the only other ally that he has left in the Pacific, considering that Britain may or may not be friendly towards any American suggestions regarding China. Indeed, the McKinley administration's proposal of an Open Door Policy regarding trade with China has come under jeopardy due to the Qing Succession Crisis. Furthermore, a weakened China might not stand up to the might of an increasingly strengthened Japanese Empire, whose ambitions and designs on Korea is well known.

McKinley's other policy aimed at Latin America was more in favor of direct interventionism, perhaps even stronger than interventionism in the Philippines, as its control of Cuba and Puerto Rico has resulted in a more pronounced American influence in the Caribbean. Furthermore, the European presence in the Caribbean flew in the face of the Monroe Doctrine, as European colonialism in the Western Hemisphere threatened American security. It was not until after the McKinley administration formally ended in 1905 that succeeding American presidents would pay more attention to the rest of the Western Hemisphere that it began to craft some hidden plans for a possible American territorial expansion in the rest of the Western Hemisphere. In 1903, the McKinley administration would recognize Panama as a sovereign state, independent from Colombia, in order to proceed with the construction of the Panama Canal. However, the Teller Agreement in which McKinley signed on a couple of years back in exchange for domestic support for the war with Spain, had practically stymied deeper American plans regarding Cuba. In contrast to Cuba, which was going to become a US protectorate, American plans for the Philippines was more along the lines of direct annexation, with the long standing policy of benevolent assimilation as the aim of assimilating and integrating the predominantly brown skinned Filipinos into the American system. Unfortunately, the increasing costs of the Philippine-American War, coupled with the loss of trust in the United States from among the Filipino population, had nearly destroyed the policy of benevolent assimilation. Furthermore, hardline US military generals that witnessed the increasing casualties of their own soldiers would resort to brutal, often appalling measures that exposed McKinley's 'civilizational mission' as a lie. The Anti-Imperialist League, now slightly weakened by the assassination of William Jennings Bryan, had nominated Moorfield Storey as its next de facto leader. Viewing both the Republican and Democratic Parties as two groups that didn't have the best interests of the average worker and farmer, as well as the African-American and Hispanic-American minorities within the US, the Anti-Imperialist League would approach the newly formed Socialist Party of America for an alliance in which anti-imperialism would become an integral part of the socialist program.

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Excerpts from 'Balkan Intrigues and Games: A Civilizational Clash Between Austria-Hungary and Russia'
by: Zlatan Delic
Stanford University Printing Press

Chapter Two: Marriage Diplomacy

Although Alexander I of Serbia had been smitten by one of his mother's ladies in waiting, a certain Draga Masin, his father was negotiating with Prince William of Schaumbburg-Lippe for a marriage match between Princess Alexandra Karoline and the reigning Serbian King. (5) In order for the match to proceed, his mother, the Dowager Queen Natalija, suddenly dismissed Draga from her service, as a safety precaution. On August 9th, 1900, the wedding between Alexander I and Princess Alexandra occurred, with the latter converting to Orthodox Christianity and taking the baptismal name of Marija. However, the now crowned Queen Alexandra would keep her name upon taking the role as Queen of Serbia. While the House of Obrenovic had been strengthened by a rather unusual marriage match, both the other Serbian royal houses of Karadjordjevic and Petrovic-Njegos were also making their own marriage matches as well. Indeed, the Karadjordjevic family had been in exile for almost 30 years since the last time the very first Karadjordjevic ruler, Prince Alexander, had governed Serbia when it was just a Principality. Both families were more than just close to each other: Peter Karadjordjevic had married Princess Zorka, who was the daughter of Nicholas I of Montenegro, giving that marital alliance the necessary strength it needed to push off the Obrenovic family from the Serbian throne. To strengthen both families even further, Nicholas I would arrange marriage matches for his three youngest children:

- Princess Ksenija's engagement of Grand Duke Mikhail Aleksandrovich was confirmed, and the couple eventually married in 1903, amidst the worsening situation in both Western Europe and East Asia. From this marriage, four children would be born: Prince Pyotr Mikhailovich (1905-1979), Princess Elena Mikhailovna (1908-1973), Princess Natalia Mikhailovna (1912-1977), and Prince Vasily Mikhailovich (1914-1981)

- Princess Vjera eventually married Prince Andrew of Greece a year after Princess Ksenija's wedding to Grand Duke Mikhail Aleksandrovich. From this marriage, only two children would be born: Princess Anastasia (1906-1982), and Princess Maria (1908-1981)

- Prince Petar of Montenegro had actually fallen in love with Princess Eudoxia of Bulgaria while being dispatched to the Bulgarian capital of Sofia as a part of a diplomatic delegation on behalf of Montenegro, while negotiating for the creation of the Balkan League in 1912. They would not marry until 1916, by which time Prince Petar had already stayed in Bulgaria as a de facto diplomatic hostage of the Bulgarian court, in exchange for a Montenegrin-Bulgarian alliance.

Likewise, the Karadjordjevic dynasty was not idle in its own marriage matches as well. The head of the Karadjordjevic family, Prince Peter, had also looked for marriage matches for his surviving sons. To this end, he would also travel around Europe and the Russian Empire to negotiate the desired matches. Luckily for Prince Peter, he has managed to secure a match for his oldest son, Prince Djordje. While traveling to Denmark for an audience with the ageing and dying King Christian IX, he negotiated for Danish support for the Karadjordjevic claim on the Serbian throne. Additionally, he pitched the idea of a match between Prince Djordje and Princess Margaret as a symbol of that kind of marital alliance. At first, both King Christian IX and Margaret's father Prince Valdemar, were skeptical about the marriage match, as it was not like their other plans to wed Margaret to either another Protestant prince or a Catholic prince. Unfortunately, it would not be until 1915 to finally get the answer, in which war clouds were already gathering. On the other hand, the news that Queen Alexandra of Serbia's pregnancy had been announced back in February of 1901 had electrified the Serbian public, though her childbirth had been traumatic as she nearly died from complications surrounding the birth of her only daughter, Princess Elizabeth Obrenovic.(6) According to Serbian physicians and doctors placed in charge of the Queen's childbirth, the baby had to be removed by what modern health experts now called the Caesarean section. Queen Alexandra had lost an enormous amount of blood due to the complications of her childbirth, though she lived. However, she would never again have any children at all, sealing the fate of the Obrenovic dynasty.

News of Princess Elizabeth's birth on November 27th of 1901 had also stunned the Montenegrin court, as they now saw their chance of Prince Mirko being appointed as the new Crown Prince of Serbia, now that Alexander I could no longer have any sons of his own. Likewise, the Karadjordjevic family also saw that opportunity to match the infant Princess Elizabeth with the second son Prince Alexander. To this end, the Karadjordjevic family would travel to Serbia for an audience with King Alexander. While negotiating for a match between Prince Alexander and the infant Princess Elizabeth, several royal guards loyal to the Obrenovic dynasty had arrested both Prince Petar and Prince Djorde on charges of treason. Though in reality King Alexander simply wanted his Karadjordjevic rivals to be removed. Their public execution on November 29th had infuriated much of both the Serbian public and the surviving members of the Karadjordjevic family to the point where members of a radical nationalist group called the Black Hand had sworn their allegiance to Prince Alexander. Likewise, Prince Alexander himself objected to the engagement between himself and the daughter of the man who killed his father and younger brother. Consequently, the infant Princess Elizabeth would instead be engaged to a son of Prince Arsen of Serbia, Prince Paul.

The unresolved issue of the Austrian occupation of the Ottoman Sanjak of Novi Pazar had been the source of tensions between the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Serbia. Indeed, Austria-Hungary had clear designs on Bosnia-Hercegovina and they didn't hide their desire to annex the former Ottoman vilayet. On the other hand the Austro-Hungarian Army was not yet ready for a major war against the other powers in the region, even though they could theoretically defeat Serbia in any conflict. However, Archduke Franz Ferdinand realized that to allow the Sanjak of Novi Pazar to be partitioned between Serbia and Montenegro would only encourage additional Serbian sedition in the Austro-Hungarian Empire, as its own Serbian minority would be encouraged to rebel and to join their ethnic brethren within Serbia itself. Eventually, Austria-Hungary would cede the Sanjak of Novi Pazar back to the Ottoman Empire, which reattached it to Kosovo Vilayet. However, it would ultimately be proved pointless, as events in Anatolia surrounding the Six Vilayets where the Ottoman Armenian population had resided would eventually go out of control, leading to not only an Armenian Revolt of 1909, but the First Balkan War of the same year.

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(1) Pedro Paterno IOTL had a notorious reputation for being a turncoat. First he sided with the Spaniards, then defected to the Filipino Revolutionaries, and finally to the Americans.

(2) The Anti-Imperialist League was opposed to the American annexation of the Philippines IOTL. Here, given the additional atrocities, the opposition to America becoming an imperial power in its own right would be stronger.

(3) The brother of Leon Czolgosz, who IOTL assassinated President McKinley. His brother Michael actually fought in the Philippines IOTL, and ITTL. 

(4) The problem of the Trans-Siberian Railroad being that it was only one track had plagued Russian logistics during the OTL Russo-Japanese War, which indirectly contributed to the spectacular Russian defeat on land against the Japanese.

(5) The previous King, Milan I, had apparently been negotiating for the marriage match between Princess Alexandra Karoline and King Alexander when he married Draga Masin IOTL. Here, given the earlier dismissal of Ms. Masin, Alexander eventually marries the woman he was supposed to marry IOTL.

(6) This should be a reference that anyone should recognize.

I recently got back to work, so sorry for the long delay in the response. So here goes:



There's a railway line that goes through Bechuanaland Protectorate, and into Rhodesia. Although judging by the map, it might be a bit more realistic to open up another front from Bechuanaland to the Transvaal, but the only barrier to that would be the Limpopo River. The only way that the British could theoretically open up a front from Portuguese Mozambique would be if the Boers had violated Portuguese colonial borders, and I wouldn't picture the Boers doing something monumentally stupid like invite Portugal to enter the war on Britain's side.

htonl.dev.openstreetmap.org/old-railway-maps/cgr-map-190x.jpeg



IOTL, the Teller and later Platt Agreements had only resulted in turning Cuba into a protectorate, though the Schurman and Taft Commissions, plus the Philippine Organic Act, had essentially established a brand new Philippine government. With the war becoming even nastier, coupled with atrocities and lingering bitterness and hatred, the US may either accept defeat and face internal turmoil due to their heavy losses and humiliation at the hands of the Filipino rebels, or they would double down on the total pacification campaign that would punish the Filipino people with a similar kind of system to the ones that the Germans created in Poland during WWII. Basically a General Government, but much worse.



If there is one thing that I almost forgot to address the immediate effects on the British crown, it would be an earlier death of Prince Edward, who became Edward VII IOTL. Removing him might, and I mean, might, temper down the possible hostility between Britain and Germany. Unlike Edward VII, King George V might have had a good relationship with both Wilhelm II and Tsar Nicholas II. However, Russia backing the claim of Prince Puwei is not as strong as the British and French claim, mostly because they're more interested in preserving Mongolia as a buffer, and if things go south rather quickly, they could just snatch Manchuria as a consolation prize, although I wouldn't rule out the idea or possibility of partitioning Manchuria between Russia and China, with the latter getting the areas that have already been populated by Han Chinese.



Unlike southern Manchuria, northern Manchuria is sparsely populated, and there's already a railway that was built by the Russians back in 1897 (the Chinese Eastern Railway), but it wouldn't be completed until 1902. Here, given that the issue of the Trans-Siberian Railway was that it wasn't double tracked, the completion of the CER, along with upgrading the TSR, would not be completed until well into the 1930s! Given that they will have to double track the western end of the Russian Empire, plus double track the Siberian heartland, before going to the Far East, that would definitely take an awfully long time to complete, and that's with just the paid labor. It could be slightly shorter if we take into account the Tsarist labor camps, or katorgas, where they could supply convict laborers, though conditions in the Tsarist katorgas might be similar to the conditions in the OTL Soviet gulags.



You are right, and I agree with you. My only complaint about the Dreadnought-class super battleships was the enormous amount of iron and metal used to build such a thing. Such massive amount of resources that were devoted to building the Dreadnoughts could have been better used for building smaller, albeit faster, ships like destroyers and cruisers. I would think that the Germans would definitely be ahead in submarine development, as they would have to be more focused on sea denial tactics and weapons instead of playing catch up to the British. Given the Great Game still being a thing, I could also sense that the Russians would push for more research into the use of submarines. Out of all the great powers, I would think that Britain and America would be more focused on sea control tactics than sea denial.

Other than that, I'm not exactly sure which would be more realistic: an Anglo-German rapprochement, a Russo-German rapprochement, or an Anglo-Russian rapprochement?

That is exactly true, although the policy of benevolent assimilation had actually mitigated the problem of the Philippines being a step too far for the US to swallow.

That would be a huge problem with the British: either come to a rapprochement with France, and by extension, Russia, or come to a rapprochement with Germany, which might increase the danger to Britain's independence from a German hegemonic control of Europe. Given Germany's belligerence and its open support for the Boers, that might pose an awkward situation between Wilhelm II and George V. In the end, it might be inevitable for Britain and France to come a bit closer, but would have to find another willing ally that could join the Anglo-French club. Portugal, even if it was greatly weakened, might be a good choice, given the historical long relations between England and Portugal. I also think there could also be a good opening for more improved relations between Britain and Portugal, and it might involve the Second Boer War.

There's also China who might be interested in preserving what's left of their share of Manchuria if the Russians decide to occupy and steal the northern half. Even a weakened China that loses some territory could still end up posing a threat to both Russia and Japan, although if the US is desperate for an Asian ally that won't undermine its interest, China would naturally fit the bill. The only problem with this would be the Chinese Exclusion Act, which kinda puts another damper on Sino-American relations, although the US government can make an exception by exempting the US overseas territories in the Pacific and perhaps the Caribbean from the Chinese Exclusion Act.

It sounds like Tirpitz and the Kaiser are boneheads when it comes to such an ego-boosting competition with the British. Given that Germany is more of a land power, it would only make sense when they're improving ties with Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire.

There might also be an interesting angle regarding a possible war involving the Ottoman Empire that I could examine. In addition to a potential Armenian rebellion, there's also Italy's hunger for Ottoman Triploitania and a general Balkan War that may erupt. Perhaps it might be the Italians that could join this Balkan League, despite not being a Balkan power itself. An interesting reward could be in the cards for Italy if it joined the Balkan Wars against the Ottomans, and that would be what's left of Albania that hasn't been partitioned between Serbia, Montenegro, and Greece. Rump Albania, along with Ottoman Tripolitania, would be the realistic goal for the Italians. There could also be an additional opportunity for a rapprochement between France and Italy: perhaps trading Italian Eritrea to France for let's say, Tunisia. The Italians were also obsessed with getting Tunisia, though the French beat them to it.

Conversely, if Russia had lost a war in Europe, it would redirect much of its efforts and attention towards Asia. Seeing as Russia and the Ottoman Empire would have conflicting interests, it might also be possible for Britain and Russia to come to an agreement. However, Britain and the Ottomans also have complimentary interests in containing Russia as well, and Germany would be in an agreement on preventing Russia from getting too powerful.

I would definitely agree on the Franco-Russian alliance remaining a thing. Needless to say, if for some odd reason that Britain and Germany did end up mending their strained ties, then France and Russia would be more motivated to mend their ties with Japan. Although there could also be a chance that Wilhelm II might also want to mend ties with Russia as well, given the failed attempt to pass the Treaty of Bjorko, which was a mutual defense treaty between the German and Russian Empires. This was also how we ended up getting the Willy-Nicky correspondence as well. I also agree that Portugal isn't that much of a significant power, although their contribution in WWI was sadly not paid attention by the other major Allied powers.

The reformist bloc being backed by Britain and France, plus to a lesser extent, Russia, might give the reformists the advantage, but the reactionaries are still allies of the ailing Cixi. There's also another faction that is forgotten about, and that is the Mutual Pact for the Defense of the Southeast, which is a group of semi-independent Chinese officers that are tasked with putting down the Boxer rebels, either independent of the Qing government, or sometimes in cooperation with them. Whoever obtains the cooperation of this quasi-renegade group, would theoretically become the new power in China.

Wilhelm could be viewed as delusional, but his delusion is rather tame, compared to that of Hitler. On the other hand, Germany could have also been economically competitive against the established traditional powers of Europe by enhancing its industrial power a bit further with turning much of its colonies into a kind of proto-economic trading bloc. German technical and industrial expertise, combined with say, Austrian or Russian manpower, would have empowered Germany a lot in the economical and commercial sense. Taking advantage of its position as a land power could have been a good option for the Germans, as it can lessen its reliance on maritime trade, which the British has a dominant position in spades.