stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 9, 2024 18:38:47 GMT
Well that was bloody but especially for the Japanese. IF I countered it rightly we lost Nelson, Indomitable and an unnamed BC - presumably one of Hood, Renown or Repulse with Formidable and Ark Royal damaged although the latter was still able to operate. The IJN lost 3 CV along with another damaged and a BB - probably one of the Kongo's rather than one of their slower ones or the Nagato's? Along with probably a number of lighter vessels damaged.
It was a surprising good performance for the RN and also for the French given the quality edge the Japanese would have had in aircraft and pleasantly shocked that 1st attack was so successful. Ironic that the Ark survived because the Japanese prepared to attack armoured carriers.  I mention the French because the Japanese could have used a lot of aircraft from Hainan for attacks on FIC. Did the allies get any shocks from the performance of the Zeros?
I assume that they had tightened up on general security as OTL it seemed the Japanese had a fair number of intelligence sources in Malaya so the level of surprise was very useful, as well as the way they co-ordinated the repeated attacks on the Japanese as they withdrew. Part of it of course is that Japan has little or no working radar, although I would suspect their aware of its existence. I love the way Chinese spies on Hainan are being blamed for the success of French attacks, which could keep the Japanese complacent about their code security but is likely to be very unpleasant for the Chinese population there. 
Overall its been a significant defeat for the Japanese both tactically and strategically and likely some heads will roll while I think the IJN will lose a lot of influence. Coupled with Stalin making signs in the north and that additional aid will now be reaching the KMT its going to be a demanding time for the Japanese army as well. Not surprised that Hong Kong and Kwangchowan were lost as they were so defenseless. Very surprised that we managed to get some people out of Honk Kong and hopefully the losses of the naval forces weren't too heavy. Given that there was no attack on the US yet does this mean that the International Settlement in Shanghai hasn't yet been attacked?
Japan is effectively defeated, although it could take some time for this to be realised, especially in Japan. Assuming their in a similar supply situation as OTL late 41 their now got zero ability to capture most of the southern territories which means no oil, rubber or metal. Possibly they can take northern Borneo but even if the allies don't destroy the oil facilities before their captured they will be vulnerable to bombing attacks and attacks on tankers by subs. It might be they can overrun at least northern FIC but it will take a lot of fighting which means that Malaya and the western DEI along with Burma will be secure. In this situation Thailand is likely to stay not only neutral but could be 'persuaded' to allow some shipments of materials, even if not arms through their territory to FIC.
The Japanese can probably attack from their mandated territories into the ANZ ones south of the equator and also New Guinea and possibly towards the Solomon's. This would be difficult for the allies to defend against unless and until they can get enough land based air there without exposing the western territories [Malaya and the western DEI] by switching the fleet that far east. However with Britain still being the primary defender of Australia and New Zealand the path to the US is markedly less important and the Japanese would be straining their logistics a hell of a lot.
Possibly their best approach might be a central one via Celebes towards Java although the allies would be more able to oppose that.
Not sure what Stalin is planning. Unless he's actually going to attack the Japanese in Manchuria this drains Japanese forces as their forced to maintain more units there, which helps the western powers. He could be planning to attack, underestimating the Japanese and relying on the arrival of new equipment, especially tanks such as the T-34 and the KV-1 but the Red Army is still very poor in quality, although he could fail to realise this. As such while he's likely to win it would be a costly slog.
The big question of course is what happens with the US? Given the mauling the Japanese have taken their likely to decide not to extend the war to the US. However will Roosevelt be willing and able to get a dow on Japan or will he be happy with the European powers clearing up the mess?
Anyway a great chapter and an excellent performance by the allies. Have to see what develops.
Cheers;
thought a lot on this one - but as You previously alluded to the British and French had some 2 years of active war experience and with the use of radar I thought this wasn't out of the realm of realism. Remember reading something about the Japanese using AP bombs on USN Carriers and with their probably anticipating the RN armoured ones it was the way to go regarding the Ark. With that I thought that a Midway could be in the cards for the RN to pull on the IJN. The RN lost one CV, Illustrious with Formidable and Ark Royal damaged, as well as a Nelson BB and Renown BC against the IJN 3 Fleet Carriers lost and 1 damaged and a Kongo BB lost - hence why the RN Battlecruisers would be able to engage.
I'll get into the losses and situation in the next post with an outline of IJN builds going on.
The issue of the Zero at Bungaran Is would be that a lot of first wave would run low on fuel and a lot destroyed on the lost and damaged Fleet Carriers - but still making for serious losses of RN aircraft. FIC is another issue as the Zero's would be some 500 km/312 mi off Hainan and thus have better range but they have to protect bombers though the Japanese weren't adverse to let these operate without protection but with real fighter defences of Dewoitine De 520 fighters and radar as well as info from Hainan they would be alerted for reception. (the Chinese on Hainan will suffer but so they did OTL from Japanese occupation and were able to run a resistance)
Agree that the Zero was a good figther though unarmoured and the IJN pilots topnotch but the French had learned it the hard way against Luftwaffe so I would expect this to ease out the difference. OTL the French were able with inferior rated fighters to defend from the Luftwaffe - their pilots were well trained.
Frankly I don't see the IJN in a position of being the attacker for the time being but more on this in the next post.
What's going on in Stalins mind? IDK but he have been robbed of legal prey of Bessarabia and the Baltic Nations so will in usual Russian fashion turn east now for fame and fortune - I expect. 
Don't know about the US position - have some ideas but it isn't drawn up yet. Shanghai int. settlement.. haven't thought of that..
I was thinking the Japanese would seek to keep some offensive operations at least attempted because it was in the nature of the army and navy at this time and also they know they need to make progress before their swamped by the greater industrial base of the allies and the problems with fuel and other materials. Also the IJN has suffered a real big loss of prestige so I expect at least some of them will want to do something to regain this. Hence was looking to see what they might try where.
If Stalin does drive east its going to be a bloodbath and where he will seek to stop. Doubt an invasion of Japan would be practical but Korea, S Sakhalin and possibly the Kurils could be options albeit that it would be bloody for both sides. Also how far into China would they end up and what they might demand in return for withdrawing. Note I'm not expecting this early, possibly not even until 43/44 but the Soviets do have the industrial strength and population base if Stalin is determined to continue.
With the Zeros I was thinking there was some probability that the allies would be rather complacent and not realise that the Japanese had both the aircraft and the pilots to match them in quality, albeit that numbers would be another issue. All Japanese aircraft were fragile compared to western ones, in part because they lacked the engine power of western designs and also access to higher quality fuel so they went for light designs to get a similar performance. Its going to be a temporary factor but it could produce a shock or two.
Of course with victory in both Europe and ultimately in the Far East a lot less costly than OTL the costs of decolonization are likely to be a hell of a lot higher for both the western powers and the colonies in most cases. However that's some time in the future and possibly beyond the scope of the TL.
How are the economies of Britain and France fairing? They avoided a lot of the worst destruction and problems of OTL but there was a bloody ~18 months of fighting against the Germans and now war in the east. OTL Britain was fiscally exhausted by ~April 41 and the US had to pass the L-L bill to keep them afloat as a counter to the Germans. Hence its not going to be as bad but its going to be costly.
One other thing that just occurred to me. OTL a new election was due in 1940 in Britain. Obviously it didn't happen until the war in Europe ended OTL but since that happened in 1941 here there's going to be some interesting questions. The Tories might still win, based on victory in the war against Germany but they are vulnerable on social and economic issues and also having been in power for pretty much a decade.
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575
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Post by 575 on Jun 10, 2024 6:42:19 GMT
The Shanghai option (got me thinking and is pondering two ways for this to go)
a)
A few hours following the IJN attack upon Singapore and FIC reports emanated from Shanghai, China where the IJA moved in the early morning hours still in darkness to seize the British and French areas and disarm their armed forces and seizing their gunboats there.
The British and French put up stiff resistance and during the fighting both the Italian and US areas were overrun but Japanese troops that tried to bottle up the fighting forces and the remaining USN gunboats.
Caught in the crossfires around the city the fes Italian troops and the US 4. Marine Infantry Regiment were also engulfed in the fighting.
Apparently the IJA had tried to stop their units fighting the Italians and US but failed as the intensity of the fighting had engulfed the troops.
The arrival of the news in the evening in the USA with reports of US Marines being attacked by IJA troops and annihalated while trying to protect US other European and Chinese citizens along the remnants of the British, French and Italian troops made for an outcry within the US.
President Roosevelt immediately put any export to Japan on embargo and awaited more information before making other decisions.
The next day the Imperial Japanese Government informed the US Ambassador that it regretted the fighting against US troops in Shanghai but those troops had taken up arms against the IJA so an armed clash had been inevitable. Japan offered to repatriate US troops and citizens from Shanghai in return of the US lifting the export embargo.
Roosevelt took these news to Congress but during the debate news arrived from Britain that the European troops in Shanghai had been killed to the last man and the civilians deported to an unknown place.
This message set the Congress in a uproar and the debated centered upon a declaration of War on the Empire of Japan.
b)
A few hours following the IJN attack upon Singapore and FIC reports emanated from Shanghai, China where the IJA moved in the early morning hours still in darkness to seize the British and French areas and disarm their armed forces and seizing their gunboats there.
The British and French put up stiff resistance and during the fighting both the Italian and US areas were overrun but Japanese troops that tried to bottle up the fighting forces and the remaining USN gunboats.
Caught in the crossfires around the city the fes Italian troops and the US 4. Marine Infantry Regiment were also engulfed in the fighting.
However the Japanese had been able to end the fighting against the Italians and US areas and had sealed these off from the British and French areas.
The Italians and US troops and civilians were evacuated during the following days by ship for Hawaii. During the journey it was revealed by the US and Italian officers that the British and French military personnel had been massacred as had their civilians though not before having been heavily abused by the Japanese troops – women and girls all having been raped.
The story leaked from Italy as Mussolini was deeply enraged by the information declaring war on Japan and his going to be sending off a naval force headed by a Battleship and several Airforce Sqd.s both fighter and bombers as well as an Infantry Division.
This led to an inquirery with US Congress on the possible action against Japanese aggression. The fate of the troops and civilians of the Old Revolutionary Ally France was most grieving and some called for aiding the French against barbary of the Orientals. Others saw general hatreat upon Europeans brutally unfolded with only Italians and Americans being spared due to circumstances of Japanese need of trade with the USA.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 10, 2024 12:39:22 GMT
The Shanghai option (got me thinking and is pondering two ways for this to go) a) A few hours following the IJN attack upon Singapore and FIC reports emanated from Shanghai, China where the IJA moved in the early morning hours still in darkness to seize the British and French areas and disarm their armed forces and seizing their gunboats there. The British and French put up stiff resistance and during the fighting both the Italian and US areas were overrun but Japanese troops that tried to bottle up the fighting forces and the remaining USN gunboats. Caught in the crossfires around the city the fes Italian troops and the US 4. Marine Infantry Regiment were also engulfed in the fighting. Apparently the IJA had tried to stop their units fighting the Italians and US but failed as the intensity of the fighting had engulfed the troops. The arrival of the news in the evening in the USA with reports of US Marines being attacked by IJA troops and annihalated while trying to protect US other European and Chinese citizens along the remnants of the British, French and Italian troops made for an outcry within the US. President Roosevelt immediately put any export to Japan on embargo and awaited more information before making other decisions. The next day the Imperial Japanese Government informed the US Ambassador that it regretted the fighting against US troops in Shanghai but those troops had taken up arms against the IJA so an armed clash had been inevitable. Japan offered to repatriate US troops and citizens from Shanghai in return of the US lifting the export embargo. Roosevelt took these news to Congress but during the debate news arrived from Britain that the European troops in Shanghai had been killed to the last man and the civilians deported to an unknown place. This message set the Congress in a uproar and the debated centered upon a declaration of War on the Empire of Japan. b) A few hours following the IJN attack upon Singapore and FIC reports emanated from Shanghai, China where the IJA moved in the early morning hours still in darkness to seize the British and French areas and disarm their armed forces and seizing their gunboats there. The British and French put up stiff resistance and during the fighting both the Italian and US areas were overrun but Japanese troops that tried to bottle up the fighting forces and the remaining USN gunboats. Caught in the crossfires around the city the fes Italian troops and the US 4. Marine Infantry Regiment were also engulfed in the fighting. However the Japanese had been able to end the fighting against the Italians and US areas and had sealed these off from the British and French areas. The Italians and US troops and civilians were evacuated during the following days by ship for Hawaii. During the journey it was revealed by the US and Italian officers that the British and French military personnel had been massacred as had their civilians though not before having been heavily abused by the Japanese troops – women and girls all having been raped. The story leaked from Italy as Mussolini was deeply enraged by the information declaring war on Japan and his going to be sending off a naval force headed by a Battleship and several Airforce Sqd.s both fighter and bombers as well as an Infantry Division. This led to an inquirery with US Congress on the possible action against Japanese aggression. The fate of the troops and civilians of the Old Revolutionary Ally France was most grieving and some called for aiding the French against barbary of the Orientals. Others saw general hatreat upon Europeans brutally unfolded with only Italians and Americans being spared due to circumstances of Japanese need of trade with the USA.
Some interesting possibilities here. Assuming that Japan attacks the international settlement as you says its unlikely that the other nations would be able to avoid being attacked, especially given the disciplinary problems the Japanese had with their troops even if ordered not to attack neutrals or civilians.
Is there any reason Mussolini is acting in option b) but not in option a) or is that just an oversight. I could see him making some sort of gesture both because it would appeal to his nature and he might see it as a good way to get on better terms with the allies who after their victory over Nazi Germany are the dominant force in Europe. It might be difficult integrating a naval force into the war as the Italians would have their own logistical needs and their ships, designed for the Med were notoriously short legged.
I definitely think that a US embargo would occur and if Japan demanded it being removed in return for the freedom of US soldiers and civilians captured during the attack its likely to incense feeling in the US further. You would have to decide whether or not the US declares war but I think an embargo would stay. Japan is already in the US's bad books for its actions in China and this further act of aggression, especially if coupled with reports of massacres of westerners and abuse of women, even if the Americans largely escape such actions, coupled with the attacks on the American people is likely to cause a lot of outrage. - Your also likely to see a rough time for Japanese Americans which could raise tensions further.
On another issue I was assuming that the Japanese would seek to maintain the offensive but its possible they might try a version of their battle plan for war with the US, i.e. seeking to lure the allied fleet into a climatic battle. However of course the allies don't really need to invade Japan to win the war as they can simply sit tight or even send forces to operate alongside the Chinese on the mainland. Which even ignoring any Soviet actions would help drive the Japanese out of mainland China and provide bases for air and naval operations against Japan. All the while Japan is running out of supplies even if the allies don't try unrestricted submarine warfare.
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575
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Post by 575 on Jun 10, 2024 14:50:41 GMT
The Shanghai option (got me thinking and is pondering two ways for this to go) a) A few hours following the IJN attack upon Singapore and FIC reports emanated from Shanghai, China where the IJA moved in the early morning hours still in darkness to seize the British and French areas and disarm their armed forces and seizing their gunboats there. The British and French put up stiff resistance and during the fighting both the Italian and US areas were overrun but Japanese troops that tried to bottle up the fighting forces and the remaining USN gunboats. Caught in the crossfires around the city the fes Italian troops and the US 4. Marine Infantry Regiment were also engulfed in the fighting. Apparently the IJA had tried to stop their units fighting the Italians and US but failed as the intensity of the fighting had engulfed the troops. The arrival of the news in the evening in the USA with reports of US Marines being attacked by IJA troops and annihalated while trying to protect US other European and Chinese citizens along the remnants of the British, French and Italian troops made for an outcry within the US. President Roosevelt immediately put any export to Japan on embargo and awaited more information before making other decisions. The next day the Imperial Japanese Government informed the US Ambassador that it regretted the fighting against US troops in Shanghai but those troops had taken up arms against the IJA so an armed clash had been inevitable. Japan offered to repatriate US troops and citizens from Shanghai in return of the US lifting the export embargo. Roosevelt took these news to Congress but during the debate news arrived from Britain that the European troops in Shanghai had been killed to the last man and the civilians deported to an unknown place. This message set the Congress in a uproar and the debated centered upon a declaration of War on the Empire of Japan. b) A few hours following the IJN attack upon Singapore and FIC reports emanated from Shanghai, China where the IJA moved in the early morning hours still in darkness to seize the British and French areas and disarm their armed forces and seizing their gunboats there. The British and French put up stiff resistance and during the fighting both the Italian and US areas were overrun but Japanese troops that tried to bottle up the fighting forces and the remaining USN gunboats. Caught in the crossfires around the city the fes Italian troops and the US 4. Marine Infantry Regiment were also engulfed in the fighting. However the Japanese had been able to end the fighting against the Italians and US areas and had sealed these off from the British and French areas. The Italians and US troops and civilians were evacuated during the following days by ship for Hawaii. During the journey it was revealed by the US and Italian officers that the British and French military personnel had been massacred as had their civilians though not before having been heavily abused by the Japanese troops – women and girls all having been raped. The story leaked from Italy as Mussolini was deeply enraged by the information declaring war on Japan and his going to be sending off a naval force headed by a Battleship and several Airforce Sqd.s both fighter and bombers as well as an Infantry Division. This led to an inquirery with US Congress on the possible action against Japanese aggression. The fate of the troops and civilians of the Old Revolutionary Ally France was most grieving and some called for aiding the French against barbary of the Orientals. Others saw general hatreat upon Europeans brutally unfolded with only Italians and Americans being spared due to circumstances of Japanese need of trade with the USA.
Some interesting possibilities here. Assuming that Japan attacks the international settlement as you says its unlikely that the other nations would be able to avoid being attacked, especially given the disciplinary problems the Japanese had with their troops even if ordered not to attack neutrals or civilians.
Is there any reason Mussolini is acting in option b) but not in option a) or is that just an oversight. I could see him making some sort of gesture both because it would appeal to his nature and he might see it as a good way to get on better terms with the allies who after their victory over Nazi Germany are the dominant force in Europe. It might be difficult integrating a naval force into the war as the Italians would have their own logistical needs and their ships, designed for the Med were notoriously short legged.
I definitely think that a US embargo would occur and if Japan demanded it being removed in return for the freedom of US soldiers and civilians captured during the attack its likely to incense feeling in the US further. You would have to decide whether or not the US declares war but I think an embargo would stay. Japan is already in the US's bad books for its actions in China and this further act of aggression, especially if coupled with reports of massacres of westerners and abuse of women, even if the Americans largely escape such actions, coupled with the attacks on the American people is likely to cause a lot of outrage. - Your also likely to see a rough time for Japanese Americans which could raise tensions further.
On another issue I was assuming that the Japanese would seek to maintain the offensive but its possible they might try a version of their battle plan for war with the US, i.e. seeking to lure the allied fleet into a climatic battle. However of course the allies don't really need to invade Japan to win the war as they can simply sit tight or even send forces to operate alongside the Chinese on the mainland. Which even ignoring any Soviet actions would help drive the Japanese out of mainland China and provide bases for air and naval operations against Japan. All the while Japan is running out of supplies even if the allies don't try unrestricted submarine warfare.
a) no Italian DOW is just because I wanted to put up two scenario's basically regarding US reaction - think You are right Musso may well declare war in this one too. I would expect some serious debate in Congress regarding US response besides embargo mainly as there had been US casualties before fighting would stop. Kinda day of infamy? Would congress mainly so the Rep. find it a weak response to an undeclared attack and an unjust deal? Mainly so because damage being done by an Asian nation. Of course if repraisals against Japanese in the US occur - and I would certainly expect so - Japan well may declare war or just attack US assets.
Anyway the outcome may be a given?
Regarding Japanese attack on US assets that I expect that would be the Philippines and Guam, Marcus and Wake Is. I don't really see them doing a PH with 3 Fleet Carriers (1 being in Home Waters at beginning of war) of which 2 already have seen battle and have some minor damage to be repaired and 2 Light ones. A Philippines attack might also be used to lure out the USN for a Gun-battle and try to lure the US Carriers out to hit them en-route to Manila.
Waiting to mid 1942 would make for another Fleet Carrier and 3 Light ones.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 10, 2024 20:16:23 GMT
Some interesting possibilities here. Assuming that Japan attacks the international settlement as you says its unlikely that the other nations would be able to avoid being attacked, especially given the disciplinary problems the Japanese had with their troops even if ordered not to attack neutrals or civilians.
Is there any reason Mussolini is acting in option b) but not in option a) or is that just an oversight. I could see him making some sort of gesture both because it would appeal to his nature and he might see it as a good way to get on better terms with the allies who after their victory over Nazi Germany are the dominant force in Europe. It might be difficult integrating a naval force into the war as the Italians would have their own logistical needs and their ships, designed for the Med were notoriously short legged.
I definitely think that a US embargo would occur and if Japan demanded it being removed in return for the freedom of US soldiers and civilians captured during the attack its likely to incense feeling in the US further. You would have to decide whether or not the US declares war but I think an embargo would stay. Japan is already in the US's bad books for its actions in China and this further act of aggression, especially if coupled with reports of massacres of westerners and abuse of women, even if the Americans largely escape such actions, coupled with the attacks on the American people is likely to cause a lot of outrage. - Your also likely to see a rough time for Japanese Americans which could raise tensions further.
On another issue I was assuming that the Japanese would seek to maintain the offensive but its possible they might try a version of their battle plan for war with the US, i.e. seeking to lure the allied fleet into a climatic battle. However of course the allies don't really need to invade Japan to win the war as they can simply sit tight or even send forces to operate alongside the Chinese on the mainland. Which even ignoring any Soviet actions would help drive the Japanese out of mainland China and provide bases for air and naval operations against Japan. All the while Japan is running out of supplies even if the allies don't try unrestricted submarine warfare.
a) no Italian DOW is just because I wanted to put up two scenario's basically regarding US reaction - think You are right Musso may well declare war in this one too. I would expect some serious debate in Congress regarding US response besides embargo mainly as there had been US casualties before fighting would stop. Kinda day of infamy? Would congress mainly so the Rep. find it a weak response to an undeclared attack and an unjust deal? Mainly so because damage being done by an Asian nation. Of course if repraisals against Japanese in the US occur - and I would certainly expect so - Japan well may declare war or just attack US assets.
Anyway the outcome may be a given?
Regarding Japanese attack on US assets that I expect that would be the Philippines and Guam, Marcus and Wake Is. I don't really see them doing a PH with 3 Fleet Carriers (1 being in Home Waters at beginning of war) of which 2 already have seen battle and have some minor damage to be repaired and 2 Light ones. A Philippines attack might also be used to lure out the USN for a Gun-battle and try to lure the US Carriers out to hit them en-route to Manila.
Waiting to mid 1942 would make for another Fleet Carrier and 3 Light ones.
It would depend on the political situation inside the US, at least for a dow from them but I could see it as quite likely with attacks on their position and people killed, even if only in fighting. News of atrocities afterwards - whether accurate or not - would make this more likely. This is why I'm rather surprised that the Japanese would attack the international settlement. However agree its likely that a dow from Washington would occur in those circumstances which would really be the last half dozen nails in the coffin for Japan.
Assuming that occurs then Japan would have to attack the Philippines which would create an interesting issues. The only way to get support to them would be from the south via the allies and Dutch territory, How far will the allies go to do that as it would expose their forces and what would they want from the US in return. Basically the shortest way to win the war would be from the south DEI/Malaya - Philippines - Taiwan or Okinawa. That can be done pretty much from the start, especially if the Philippines can be rescued. Any attack across the central Pacific really needed a lot more CV to provide air cover, as well as the more advanced aircraft probably. This wouldn't be practical until say mid 43 so would waste a hell of a lot of time.
I can't really see the US attacking across the Pacific to try and relieve the Philippines as they had given them up for lost before the war and even with the Japanese weakened the USN would have to fight their way through the Japanese controlled islands. Also to have any real effect they would need to transport additional troops and plenty of supplies which would both slow the force down and mean more, vulnerable troopships and transports to protect. As I say, especially if the US defenders last as long as OTL - or better if MacArthur doesn't foul up - then going in from the south with allied support is a more practical option although it would need some time to organise and set up and a lot of the forces, probably especially the ground ones would have to be from the western allies.
Attacks on Guam would probably work but with a prepared and undamaged USN at Pearl and the Japanese in a mess Wake could probably hold and become another disaster for the Japanese, albeit on a smaller level.
Definitely no Pearl attack with the US on a war footing and the Japanese facing problems in the south.
Just to clarify my comment at the end of the last post about Japan trying to lure the enemy into a decisive battle in conditions that might enable them to win/do enough damage to force a peace was directed to what they might do against the western allies in this scenario but that really falls apart if their stupidity has brought the US into the war as well.
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575
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Post by 575 on Jun 10, 2024 21:56:16 GMT
Found this one on the Shanghai attack - as the Japanese attack ITTL happens during late October 1941 the 4. Marine Regiment haven't been withdrawn from Shanghai thus the US will be fighting the Japanese as I too don't expect the IJA to be able to restrain its troops once fighting is ongoing - and the Marines I expect to do their duty and defend the US area. I have to work some on the post but basically its going to be b) option. I also have to rework the following post's as these was outlined before stevep did mention Shanghai. I had some idea's about a Commonwealth buildup of forces in New Guinea and New Britain to defend these against possible Japanese attack and when possible move on Japanese Carolina's, Marshall's and Mariana's Is. Quite ambitious of course but in the longer run.. The RN already have decided upon a serious building programme of Aircraft Carriers - larger ones - but those won't be available for more than a year.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 11, 2024 10:13:05 GMT
Found this one on the Shanghai attack - as the Japanese attack ITTL happens during late October 1941 the 4. Marine Regiment haven't been withdrawn from Shanghai thus the US will be fighting the Japanese as I too don't expect the IJA to be able to restrain its troops once fighting is ongoing - and the Marines I expect to do their duty and defend the US area. I have to work some on the post but basically its going to be b) option. I also have to rework the following post's as these was outlined before stevep did mention Shanghai. I had some idea's about a Commonwealth buildup of forces in New Guinea and New Britain to defend these against possible Japanese attack and when possible move on Japanese Carolina's, Marshall's and Mariana's Is. Quite ambitious of course but in the longer run.. The RN already have decided upon a serious building programme of Aircraft Carriers - larger ones - but those won't be available for more than a year.
On the last point I can see a desire to defend areas of the empire, especially possibly New Guinea and New Britain as they shield Australia from attack. In terms of offensive action I would suspect the aim would be more likely to - since the US/Philippines are still neutral albeit not for long by the sound of it - moving via FIC and areas of the Chinese coast still in KMT hands to get land and air forces in China and assist them against the Japanese. For the following reasons.
a) Britain and France have just won a big victory but their fleet isn't really powerful enough to have the sort of overwhelming advantage, both in carriers and gun ships to securely support an advance through the Japanese mandated islands. From which they would have to turn NW any6way to close on Japan proper. As the US sho0wed in 44-45 they had an overwhelming numerical and quality edge but still took some heavy losses. [True the TTL people don't know that or about the probability of the Japanese using suicide weapons but they will have some concerns about amphibious assaults in the face of Japanese superiority - or at least serious threat - in land based air.]
b) Most of their experience from Europe has been with ground combat and while some of the heavier motorized and armoured units will have probables in China due to the poor roads even somewhat older/lighter stuff would outclass their Japanese equivalent and they can bring a decent amount of firepower and also land based air, which are material things the KMT are weak on. Also it has political and diplomatic advantages as it establishes the allies as friends of the Chinese in their fight for liberation and also gives the best chance of securing the lost facilities in southern China. The KMT will still provide the bulk of the manpower but powerful allied forces can play a big role in bleeding the Japanese, defeating Japanese attacks and then spearheading offensives against them.
I'm thinking in part here of the situation in the peninsula war in Spain. Wellington's forces were generally vastly outnumbered by the occupying French forces, even when their Portuguese allies were added into the account. However the French were divided into regional armies across Spain to hold down areas threatened by Spanish guerilla forces. If they stayed that way then in the latter part of the war they faced defeat in detail by Wellington's army while if they combined against him they lost control of much of Spain including the areas through which supply and communications run back to France. - In China things are even worse for Japan as as well as a lot of guerilla's the Chinese have substantial forces in the field that tied down most of their forces in China. - Also this aids co-operation with the Chinese as they can more easily be given western supplied and equipment and trained it their efficient use.
Yes this approach will be bloody given the ferocious resistance the Japanese will put up. However adding in the Chinese they will be heavily outnumbered as well as facing superior firepower and while the logistics are poor a continental theatre means there are options for outflanking powerful forces and either forcing them to withdraw or be isolated and left to wither on the vine - possibly aided by massive artillery and air attacks to bleed them white. The allies have more choice as to where they can attack and what they can leave more than in a campaign across relatively small and isolated Pacific islands.
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575
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Post by 575 on Jun 13, 2024 16:19:36 GMT
The Shanghai option (reworked edition)
A few hours following the IJN attack upon Singapore and FIC reports emanated from Shanghai, China where the IJA moved in the early morning hours still in darkness to seize the British and French areas and disarm their armed forces and seizing their gunboats there.
The British and French put up stiff resistance and during the fighting both the Italian and US areas were overrun but Japanese troops that tried to bottle up the fighting forces and the remaining USN gunboats.
Caught in the crossfires around the city the fes Italian troops and the US 4. Marine Infantry Regiment were also engulfed in the fighting.
Apparently the IJA had tried to stop their units fighting the Italians and US but failed as the intensity of the fighting had engulfed the troops.
The arrival of the news in the evening in the USA with reports of US Marines being attacked by IJA troops and annihalated while trying to protect US other European and Chinese citizens along the remnants of the British, French and Italian troops made for an outcry within the US.
President Roosevelt immediately put any export to Japan on embargo and awaited more information before making other decisions.
The next day the Imperial Japanese Government informed the US Ambassador that it regretted the fighting against US troops in Shanghai but those troops had taken up arms against the IJA so an armed clash had been inevitable. Japan offered to repatriate US troops and citizens from Shanghai in return of the US lifting the export embargo.
Roosevelt took these news to Congress but during the debate news arrived from Britain that the European troops in Shanghai had been killed to the last man and the civilians deported to an unknown place.
This message set the Congress in a uproar and the debated centered upon a declaration of War on the Empire of Japan.
During the journey from Shanghai it was revealed by the US and Italian officers that the British and French military personnel had been massacred as had their civilians though not before having been heavily abused by the Japanese troops – women and girls all having been raped.
The story leaked from Italy as Mussolini was deeply enraged by the information declaring war on Japan and his going to be sending off a naval force headed by a Battleship and several Airforce Sqd.s both fighter and bombers as well as an Infantry Division.
This led to an inquirery with US Congress on the possible action against Japanese aggression. The fate of the troops and civilians of the Old Revolutionary Ally France was most grieving and some called for aiding the French against barbary of the Orientals. Others saw general hatreat upon Europeans brutally unfolded with only Italians and Americans being spared due to circumstances of Japanese need of trade with the USA.
In California several reports soon emerged of Americans attacking Japanese living there in retaliation of the attack on Shanghai.
During debates in Congress the Japanese unprovoked attack at Shanghai was termed an infamous attack and calls for a declaration of war was heard probably because of Mussolini being deeply enraged by the information and declaring war on Japan and his going to be sending off a naval force headed by a Battleship and several Airforce Sqd.s both fighter and bombers as well as an Infantry Division.
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575
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Post by 575 on Jun 13, 2024 16:24:03 GMT
The IJN was aware it had too few Aircraft Carriers to provide aircover for major operations on the southern fringes of the South China Sea.
The two Fleet Carriers that had participated in the Singapore attack and Bunguran Battle had both suffered light damage and would soon be ready. The Zuiho Fleet Carrier that had been kept in Home Waters would be used as would the by now 2 Light Carriers available.
The Italian declaration of war would immediately matter little but it was paramount - at least untill producing oilfields had been secured – to keep on good terms with the USA.
For the time being an attack on the Philippines was shelved and means would be used to battling the British and French.
An attack on FIC had to be pressed through and would then succeed. Airunits would fly out of Hainan Island and bases in China.
If an attack could be pressed home with landing troops securing a or what could be turned into a landing strip then things would look differently and fighteraircraft could be ferried in to give local airsupport and more so defence.
Even with the major IJN base at Truk attacking New Guinea and New Britain seemed too much of a mouthfull with only minor islands within air range to support such an undertaking.
A lesser Carrier supported attack on British Borneo to capture the oilfields and refinery at Seria in Brunei and Miri in Sarawak were then deemed a viable option and decided upon. Land based bombers operating out of Kwangtung Province east of Hainan Island would support the landings with the IJN Carriers providing fighter cover.
Preparing for the operations the IJN again would change ciphers only alerting the WAllies that something was boiling.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 13, 2024 19:02:32 GMT
The IJN was aware it had too few Aircraft Carriers to provide aircover for major operations on the southern fringes of the South China Sea. The two Fleet Carriers that had participated in the Singapore attack and Bunguran Battle had both suffered light damage and would soon be ready. The Zuiho Fleet Carrier that had been kept in Home Waters would be used as would the by now 2 Light Carriers available. The Italian declaration of war would immediately matter little but it was paramount - at least untill producing oilfields had been secured – to keep on good terms with the USA. For the time being an attack on the Philippines was shelved and means would be used to battling the British and French. An attack on FIC had to be pressed through and would then succeed. Airunits would fly out of Hainan Island and bases in China. If an attack could be pressed home with landing troops securing a or what could be turned into a landing strip then things would look differently and fighteraircraft could be ferried in to give local airsupport and more so defence. Even with the major IJN base at Truk attacking New Guinea and New Britain seemed too much of a mouthfull with only minor islands within air range to support such an undertaking. A lesser Carrier supported attack on British Borneo to capture the oilfields and refinery at Seria in Brunei and Miri in Sarawak were then deemed a viable option and decided upon. Land based bombers operating out of Kwangtung Province east of Hainan Island would support the landings with the IJN Carriers providing fighter cover. Preparing for the operations the IJN again would change ciphers only alerting the WAllies that something was boiling.
Well sounds like the main battle will be in FIC although with another front in Borneo. The latter could be more profitable for Japan if it lures the allied fleet into a trap outside friendly land based air but that would also be risky for Japan after its losses in the 1st round. Also even if they take oil refineries in N Borneo without them being damaged/destroyed the Japanese would need to get the oil out in the face of air, sea and sub attacks.
When you say the 2 fleet carriers involved in the Singapore attack were only lightly damaged did you mean none were lost or was that a typo and others were lost as it sounded like the latter in the battle?
If the Japanese can establish a foothold in FIC and supply it, especially with Thailand being neutral it could prove difficult and dangerous for the allies to reinforce it but then it could also be a mincing operation for the Japanese as well and then if they do capture it either they have to go through Thailand or build up air bases in FIC which gives the allies time to build up more powerful resources.
Assuming the war goes into later 42 I wonder how the allies will react to the size of the two Yamato class ships! Mind you I wonder are the British working on Lion class now, which while still way smaller would be pretty damned formidable, especially with war experience added in.
Under the circumstances its going to be difficult for the Japanese to get a decent relationship with the US given everything that's happened and I can't see the embargo being lifted.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 13, 2024 19:06:48 GMT
The Shanghai option (reworked edition) A few hours following the IJN attack upon Singapore and FIC reports emanated from Shanghai, China where the IJA moved in the early morning hours still in darkness to seize the British and French areas and disarm their armed forces and seizing their gunboats there. The British and French put up stiff resistance and during the fighting both the Italian and US areas were overrun but Japanese troops that tried to bottle up the fighting forces and the remaining USN gunboats. Caught in the crossfires around the city the fes Italian troops and the US 4. Marine Infantry Regiment were also engulfed in the fighting. Apparently the IJA had tried to stop their units fighting the Italians and US but failed as the intensity of the fighting had engulfed the troops. The arrival of the news in the evening in the USA with reports of US Marines being attacked by IJA troops and annihalated while trying to protect US other European and Chinese citizens along the remnants of the British, French and Italian troops made for an outcry within the US. President Roosevelt immediately put any export to Japan on embargo and awaited more information before making other decisions. The next day the Imperial Japanese Government informed the US Ambassador that it regretted the fighting against US troops in Shanghai but those troops had taken up arms against the IJA so an armed clash had been inevitable. Japan offered to repatriate US troops and citizens from Shanghai in return of the US lifting the export embargo. Roosevelt took these news to Congress but during the debate news arrived from Britain that the European troops in Shanghai had been killed to the last man and the civilians deported to an unknown place. This message set the Congress in a uproar and the debated centered upon a declaration of War on the Empire of Japan. During the journey from Shanghai it was revealed by the US and Italian officers that the British and French military personnel had been massacred as had their civilians though not before having been heavily abused by the Japanese troops – women and girls all having been raped. The story leaked from Italy as Mussolini was deeply enraged by the information declaring war on Japan and his going to be sending off a naval force headed by a Battleship and several Airforce Sqd.s both fighter and bombers as well as an Infantry Division. This led to an inquirery with US Congress on the possible action against Japanese aggression. The fate of the troops and civilians of the Old Revolutionary Ally France was most grieving and some called for aiding the French against barbary of the Orientals. Others saw general hatreat upon Europeans brutally unfolded with only Italians and Americans being spared due to circumstances of Japanese need of trade with the USA. In California several reports soon emerged of Americans attacking Japanese living there in retaliation of the attack on Shanghai. During debates in Congress the Japanese unprovoked attack at Shanghai was termed an infamous attack and calls for a declaration of war was heard probably because of Mussolini being deeply enraged by the information and declaring war on Japan and his going to be sending off a naval force headed by a Battleship and several Airforce Sqd.s both fighter and bombers as well as an Infantry Division.
Well Japan gas I suspect burnt its bridges with the US. If they show some skill they may avoid war but I don't think demanding the US remove the embargo before their citizens are returned - effectively holding them as hostages will go down well. At least their had the sense not to extend the war by attacking US territory further although the longer they wait the more defensible the Philippines, Guam and Wake will become.
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575
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Post by 575 on Jun 14, 2024 6:35:00 GMT
The IJN was aware it had too few Aircraft Carriers to provide aircover for major operations on the southern fringes of the South China Sea. The two Fleet Carriers that had participated in the Singapore attack and Bunguran Battle had both suffered light damage and would soon be ready. The Zuiho Fleet Carrier that had been kept in Home Waters would be used as would the by now 2 Light Carriers available. The Italian declaration of war would immediately matter little but it was paramount - at least untill producing oilfields had been secured – to keep on good terms with the USA. For the time being an attack on the Philippines was shelved and means would be used to battling the British and French. An attack on FIC had to be pressed through and would then succeed. Airunits would fly out of Hainan Island and bases in China. If an attack could be pressed home with landing troops securing a or what could be turned into a landing strip then things would look differently and fighteraircraft could be ferried in to give local airsupport and more so defence. Even with the major IJN base at Truk attacking New Guinea and New Britain seemed too much of a mouthfull with only minor islands within air range to support such an undertaking. A lesser Carrier supported attack on British Borneo to capture the oilfields and refinery at Seria in Brunei and Miri in Sarawak were then deemed a viable option and decided upon. Land based bombers operating out of Kwangtung Province east of Hainan Island would support the landings with the IJN Carriers providing fighter cover. Preparing for the operations the IJN again would change ciphers only alerting the WAllies that something was boiling.
Well sounds like the main battle will be in FIC although with another front in Borneo. The latter could be more profitable for Japan if it lures the allied fleet into a trap outside friendly land based air but that would also be risky for Japan after its losses in the 1st round. Also even if they take oil refineries in N Borneo without them being damaged/destroyed the Japanese would need to get the oil out in the face of air, sea and sub attacks.
When you say the 2 fleet carriers involved in the Singapore attack were only lightly damaged did you mean none were lost or was that a typo and others were lost as it sounded like the latter in the battle?
If the Japanese can establish a foothold in FIC and supply it, especially with Thailand being neutral it could prove difficult and dangerous for the allies to reinforce it but then it could also be a mincing operation for the Japanese as well and then if they do capture it either they have to go through Thailand or build up air bases in FIC which gives the allies time to build up more powerful resources.
Assuming the war goes into later 42 I wonder how the allies will react to the size of the two Yamato class ships! Mind you I wonder are the British working on Lion class now, which while still way smaller would be pretty damned formidable, especially with war experience added in.
Under the circumstances its going to be difficult for the Japanese to get a decent relationship with the US given everything that's happened and I can't see the embargo being lifted.
The IJN lost three Fleet Aircraft Carriers and had one heavily damaged during the battle of Bungarun Islands the last two suffering light damage which is going to be repaired before new operations.
Read that the oil refineries and production sites had been readied for demolitions prior to Japanese attack OTL so assume this is also the case here.
ITTL there being no Thai-French War the Japanese are going to FIC to get closer to Thailand, Malaya and NEI as well as be able to close down Burma Road.
Thanks for the heads up on the Tiger Class BB - will have a look at those.
The Japanese certainly have to be wary of stepping on US toes!
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575
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Post by 575 on Jun 14, 2024 6:48:55 GMT
The Shanghai option (reworked edition) A few hours following the IJN attack upon Singapore and FIC reports emanated from Shanghai, China where the IJA moved in the early morning hours still in darkness to seize the British and French areas and disarm their armed forces and seizing their gunboats there. The British and French put up stiff resistance and during the fighting both the Italian and US areas were overrun but Japanese troops that tried to bottle up the fighting forces and the remaining USN gunboats. Caught in the crossfires around the city the fes Italian troops and the US 4. Marine Infantry Regiment were also engulfed in the fighting. Apparently the IJA had tried to stop their units fighting the Italians and US but failed as the intensity of the fighting had engulfed the troops. The arrival of the news in the evening in the USA with reports of US Marines being attacked by IJA troops and annihalated while trying to protect US other European and Chinese citizens along the remnants of the British, French and Italian troops made for an outcry within the US. President Roosevelt immediately put any export to Japan on embargo and awaited more information before making other decisions. The next day the Imperial Japanese Government informed the US Ambassador that it regretted the fighting against US troops in Shanghai but those troops had taken up arms against the IJA so an armed clash had been inevitable. Japan offered to repatriate US troops and citizens from Shanghai in return of the US lifting the export embargo. Roosevelt took these news to Congress but during the debate news arrived from Britain that the European troops in Shanghai had been killed to the last man and the civilians deported to an unknown place. This message set the Congress in a uproar and the debated centered upon a declaration of War on the Empire of Japan. During the journey from Shanghai it was revealed by the US and Italian officers that the British and French military personnel had been massacred as had their civilians though not before having been heavily abused by the Japanese troops – women and girls all having been raped. The story leaked from Italy as Mussolini was deeply enraged by the information declaring war on Japan and his going to be sending off a naval force headed by a Battleship and several Airforce Sqd.s both fighter and bombers as well as an Infantry Division. This led to an inquirery with US Congress on the possible action against Japanese aggression. The fate of the troops and civilians of the Old Revolutionary Ally France was most grieving and some called for aiding the French against barbary of the Orientals. Others saw general hatreat upon Europeans brutally unfolded with only Italians and Americans being spared due to circumstances of Japanese need of trade with the USA. In California several reports soon emerged of Americans attacking Japanese living there in retaliation of the attack on Shanghai. During debates in Congress the Japanese unprovoked attack at Shanghai was termed an infamous attack and calls for a declaration of war was heard probably because of Mussolini being deeply enraged by the information and declaring war on Japan and his going to be sending off a naval force headed by a Battleship and several Airforce Sqd.s both fighter and bombers as well as an Infantry Division.
Well Japan gas I suspect burnt its bridges with the US. If they show some skill they may avoid war but I don't think demanding the US remove the embargo before their citizens are returned - effectively holding them as hostages will go down well. At least their had the sense not to extend the war by attacking US territory further although the longer they wait the more defensible the Philippines, Guam and Wake will become.
The Japanese had the sense NOT to keep the US troops and citizens hostage - they had to get the oil flowing but now the clock is ticking. Found this on Japanese oil consumption during WWII. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 14, 2024 12:21:31 GMT
Well sounds like the main battle will be in FIC although with another front in Borneo. The latter could be more profitable for Japan if it lures the allied fleet into a trap outside friendly land based air but that would also be risky for Japan after its losses in the 1st round. Also even if they take oil refineries in N Borneo without them being damaged/destroyed the Japanese would need to get the oil out in the face of air, sea and sub attacks.
When you say the 2 fleet carriers involved in the Singapore attack were only lightly damaged did you mean none were lost or was that a typo and others were lost as it sounded like the latter in the battle?
If the Japanese can establish a foothold in FIC and supply it, especially with Thailand being neutral it could prove difficult and dangerous for the allies to reinforce it but then it could also be a mincing operation for the Japanese as well and then if they do capture it either they have to go through Thailand or build up air bases in FIC which gives the allies time to build up more powerful resources.
Assuming the war goes into later 42 I wonder how the allies will react to the size of the two Yamato class ships! Mind you I wonder are the British working on Lion class now, which while still way smaller would be pretty damned formidable, especially with war experience added in.
Under the circumstances its going to be difficult for the Japanese to get a decent relationship with the US given everything that's happened and I can't see the embargo being lifted.
The IJN lost three Fleet Aircraft Carriers and had one heavily damaged during the battle of Bungarun Islands the last two suffering light damage which is going to be repaired before new operations.
Read that the oil refineries and production sites had been readied for demolitions prior to Japanese attack OTL so assume this is also the case here.
ITTL there being no Thai-French War the Japanese are going to FIC to get closer to Thailand, Malaya and NEI as well as be able to close down Burma Road.
Thanks for the heads up on the Tiger Class BB - will have a look at those.
The Japanese certainly have to be wary of stepping on US toes!
Ouch that's worse than I thought. They have a number of CVL and merchant ships designed for quick conversion but will have lost a lot of their experienced carrier trained aircrew so they will be very difficult to replace, especially with oil shortages.
The class title was Lion not Tiger and the planned 6 ships, with differing designs in 38,42 and 44. Here you might have seen a delay with redesigns but what sort of I don't know. The 1st two laid down in 1938 were named Lion and Temeraire with Conqueror & Thunderer ordered in autumn 39. Construction was largely cancelled in Oct 39 but work continued on the 16" guns and their turrets but only at a minimal rate.
Depending on how things have gone in this conflict as to with what determination construction has been continued, what redesigns have occurred and whether the British government are still interested in building large new capital ships. I would say with Italy still present along with Japan the answer to the last point is yes and some level work will resume rapidly as soon as the war with Germany ends.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 14, 2024 12:25:45 GMT
Well Japan gas I suspect burnt its bridges with the US. If they show some skill they may avoid war but I don't think demanding the US remove the embargo before their citizens are returned - effectively holding them as hostages will go down well. At least their had the sense not to extend the war by attacking US territory further although the longer they wait the more defensible the Philippines, Guam and Wake will become.
The Japanese had the sense NOT to keep the US troops and citizens hostage - they had to get the oil flowing but now the clock is ticking. Found this on Japanese oil consumption during WWII.
The reason why I said what I did was because you said.
That sounds to me like Japan is insisting on the embargo being lifted as a result which I would consider a hostage type situation.
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I mention the French because the Japanese could have used a lot of aircraft from Hainan for attacks on FIC. Did the allies get any shocks from the performance of the Zeros? 
