France attacked 25 October 1939

   From what I've read about it, it has the potential to be a disaster, for the Germans.

  Not only is a lot of equipment lost/damaged and the weather markedly worse, which will help the defenders but the army also wanted to use time to reorganise units and do a lot of training as they had been less than happy with the performance of a lot of their units.  Remember that Germany had only introduced conscription in 1935 and most units were a lot more recent than that.  Plus with conscription being banned since 1919 they had no vast reserve of men with experience of military training.

  Furthermore this was the original plan which was largely identical to that carried out in 1914 and what the allies were expecting.  As such they would have to fight their way through Belgium defences in wet weather and mud before the allied main forces come to their aid.  There was no sickle cut to isolate those forces as happened in 1940 when they had been drawn north into Belgium and the Netherlands to be isolated.  As such its going to be a frontal assault on the allies best forces and what would be left of the Belgium forces. 

  I didn't realise the initial plan didn't include invading the Netherlands as occurred in 1940.  That saves that country, although the war might spill over but would mean a relatively narrow front on which the Germans could strike. 

  Overall I suspect that such an attack would become a grind in which the Germans might have an initial qualitative edge but that would be restricted by the weather, which would probably also have a big impact on air activity, which would be a net negative for the Axis at this point.  Your likely to see a good chunk of Belgium overrun along with Luxembourg and possibly parts of France but probably no more and with heavy German losses.  Coupled with the serious shortages that Germany suffered OTL in the winter of 1939-40 its likely to make the conflict deeply unpopular in Germany - although how affective that would be to their war effort I don't know.  You would get something like the WWI 1917-18 period but with more advanced air and mechanized forces but without one side being exhausted as Germany was from mid 1918 its going to be a prolonged slog.  Which could mean those army concerns about munition supplies could be another issue.

  One side effect of this is that Norway could well be saved as well as possibly the Netherlands.  Denmark might be occupied at some point so Germany could totally close the Baltic.  Not sure what the impact would be on the Winter war?

  Longer term unless there's some sort of army coup - which wouldn't necessarily end the war quickly as the German armies plans for a settlement is likely to be considerably different from what the allies would be happy with. just as in 1944 - then the war probably goes into 1915-16 before Germany is defeated.  Which will have a lot of impacts on the rest of the world.  Questions that come to mind:

a)  Not sure how much Stalin might get up to while the other European great powers are occupied?

b)  Italy probably remains neutral although Mussolini might also fish in troubled waters with an attack on either Greece or Yugoslavia in which case what would the allies do? 

c)   Ditto with how things develop in the Far East.  The European allies are tied up in a big war but Japan would be likely to have to fight for FIC and be opposed in any attack on the DEI while the sort of war I'm seeing in Europe would leave a lot of the allied navies fairly free and steadily increasing production could mean in the event of tension the Anglo-French could send some forces east.  [After all no war in the Med and France stays a major combatant and industrial power.]

PS  While I was writing this I see quite an exchange between the pair of you.

Netherland wasn't included in the attack untill a plan-reworking on 29. October 1939! Schichelschnitt didn't enter planning untill 12. November 1939 and was adopted by OKH 24. February 1940 following the forced landing at 10. January 1940 at Malines, Belgium.

This makes the Eben Emael much more important to the Germans than OTL for their march into Belgium - would they pressure the Dutch successfully to pass through Maastricht as Hitler seems to do which an older book I have says? Otherwise no Airborne attack on the fort - the training for the Glider Assault Force only began late November - early December 1939 and lasted untill May 1940. The Hollow Charge had been ready by 1938 but a Parachute attack had been deemed too difficult - too much scatter of force on landing to be effective. I expect the Brandenburg Commandoes to pick up Belgian instead of Dutch Uniforms and try a ruse of the bridges across Albert Canal perhaps in conjunction with a small Parachute drop of Combat Engineers. However weather may not permit the latter.

a) - sort'a:

I expect events in Scandinavia to depend upon Soviet actions and possible WAllies response if Finland/Winter War happens - I think it well could - or a Soviet move into the Baltics. Hitler will see to that the Eastern Border is manned even if it detracts from the attack force in the West - mainly because ITTL OKH will only have an Infantry Reserve of 5 newly raised Divisions. The rest is in the attack force and 18 Divisions are guarding the East Border.

If Stalin moves on Finland - which he didn't do till 30. November 1939 this leave a month for fighting in the West - by which time the WAllies may still be heavily engaged and unlike OTL won't have the resources to spare for Norway - Finland. I won't expect such.

Musso however could promote himself as the saviour of the Finn's and deliver arms in larger amounts than OTL. The Swedes may ITTL depending on developments in Belgium - France, how much are the Germans tied up, decide to support the Finns some more than OTL - an Air Wing and an Infantry Brigade.

Denmark will mine the Straits as OTL and as the RN don't have a friendly base in the Baltic for its Subs (as during WWI) I don't really see a venture there.

To the Germans OTL Scandinavia was a sideshow and with much less Infantry I don't see OKH parting with even a couple of Divisions for Denmark much less a Motorized Brigade or a Panzer Battalion. Luftwaffe wouldn't even consider it as they won't most of the time know what they would be bombing due to weather!

Churchill may still plan mining Norwegian waters to deter shipping of Swedish iron ore from Narvik but this not happening in a Phoney War may make the Armie's less interested in participation. At such an early point a lot of the Polish units in the West haven't formed among these a Mountain Brigade that participated in Norway.

b)

Musso had promised Graziani plenty time before comitting to war and in the event left him with 6 months supply in Libya. Musso may be deluded by the German win in Poland but it would really depend on how good the Germans does. Italy was unprepared in 1940 so would be even less so in 1939. Unless something really delicious turns up I'd expect him to lie low. Also he just occupied Albania 7. April 1939 so would need time to build up anything.

c)

I don't see the Japanese do much - yet. The decision to go Pacific/South was only taken post Barbarossa launched - on 2. July 1941. Ofc this may be different depend when the Japanese talk plans with the Germans.

As long as the WAllies seems to be going strong I don't see them going aggressive on their Colonial holdings in the Far East. Also the substituting of previous generation of Army and Navy Fighter Aircraft haven't been effected which would leave them at a disadvantage.

I am reading some of Lord Gorts briefings to Government during his time in France as Commander BEF. The two Corps initially consisting of two Divisions each. Only on 26. October! was 5. Division build from newly arrived Brigades. Also RAF Ex.Force was in area. A German signals-intelligence work by the Germans for the US Army post war outline that the WAllied codes weren't broken. Reconnaisance being the order of the day - as the WAllies also found. However with running bad weather there won't be such in numbers. Gort describe high-level German reconnaisance taking place.

There were problems of communications in between the Allies - apparently the British had few French-speaking Officers and the French spoke French. Surprise? Verbal communications by phone or radio was problematic with Personal meetings a must.

The Dewoitine 520 only took to the skies a year ago and it won't appear untill January 1940. However the French may not have an instant panic once the German attack unfold as the weather will ground air-operations a lot. So perhaps better handling of French airresources. That could have a serious impact on operations once the skies clear.

There won't be any British troops in the Maginot Line area - that was only initiated 4. December 1939 to have Officers gain experience in leadership under fire! Initiated by Gort. Clever one that man; though here the experience will be forthcoming soon.

I'd expect OKH to send the heavy Artillery Brigades to the Belgian Border to help reduce Eben Emael and Liege Fortifications when hostilities are initiated. At least as a precaution should the Para/Commando scheme for it fail.

This might give the WAllies a few important days for deciding how far they go into Belgium as OTL decision was made 24. October 1939..