stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,836 
Likes: 13,224
|
Post by stevep on May 11, 2024 9:57:56 GMT
Sounds like unless there is a sudden outbreak of sanity in Japan its going to jump. Assuming it goes as OTL, against both the western allies and the US then its going to be a messy conflict. Can't see them having the resources to try a Pearl Harbour attack against the US Pacific fleet because of the forces that the allies will be bringing in to protect their interests. Plus with FIC held against them attacks against Malaya and the western DEI will be harder. While any attack against the DEI will be a political own goal as its a neutral nation but will be necessary if they want its resources.
However if there are Japanese attacks against the Philippines, Guam and Wake while the main strength heads south what does the US do>
Also if war breaks out in the Pacific what is Stalin's decision, sit tight, try some nibbling at the fringes somewhere, go east against Japan or go west against the allies. I think initially sit tight as he might think Japan will go down quickly then possibly move in for the kill to try and get some 'easy' gains.
I am really in several minds - there is no US oil boycot as there have been no Japanese pressure to get bases in FIC or move into it. OTOH I have really difficulty in seeing where Japanese would go if not the Soviets as with the British - French naval presence it seems unlikely that the IJN should split its forces to go at both Pearl and SEA. They would have to to counter British and French Carriers and Air. With a Soviet Union having its back free in the West and still supplying KMT/China Japan have limited options.
The Japanese going for DEI oil and Straits rubber would need to neutralize the US and British - French. The Dutch really would like an alliance with the Great Powers. Going against the Soviets really won't yield much except territory in Sibiria.. I don't see the Soviets getting anything from the US - British - French in such a scenario.
Really the Japanese have painted themselves into a corner. Any ideas - comments welcome.
Well, if they do got against the western powers I don't see the Pearl attack happening for three reasons.
a) They can't really afford to send a large force on such a risky mission when they will need everything they can to drive south and also support operations against the Philippines especially.
b) One of the military 'rules' is concentration of forces and spreading their battle fleet widely where they can't support each other is generally considered a big error. Albeit that's pretty much what they did at Midway, with the failed distraction in the Aleutians and the main attack towards Midway being split into several groups.
c) The drive south is the absolutely crucial operation. If their going to war with the western powers as a whole they need those resources and a failure to secure them would doom any war effort, which even the current Japanese military leadership must see so it would seem folly not to do everything they could to ensure that succeeds.
Also the plan for the attack on Pearl was a relatively late decision and prior to this the Japanese plan, which it still was to a degree, was to have the USN come to them in the expectation/hope of wearing it down before some final victory. OTL it could be argued that the Pearl attack backfired for Japan in several ways. One of which was that the losses at Pearl, coupled with the related US involvement in the European conflict meant that the US didn't have the naval strength to quickly attack. By the time they did start a major drive across the Pacific not only were they able to rely on massive new construction in place but the IJN was already bleed. Its possible that Japan's best bet here would be striking south quickly in the hope that they can defeat the allied forces quickly and win the resources they desire then be in place to counter a USN drive.
In terms of what the USN does in the case of war that would in part depend on the circumstances but some questions come to mind. a) Is their fleet actually forward based at Pearl? IIRC it was only moved from California in 1941 OTL and that was in part as an attempted deterrent to Japan. Here with France still free and the Germans already collapsing, plus now a major allied reinforcement of the SEA region, as well as no occupation of FIC would there be the same incentive for such a move? If it hasn't occurred then that makes an attack on the naval base pretty much redundant.
b) Assuming the Pacific fleet is at Pearl and with an allied victory in Europe has the US transferred more forces west to the Pacific? c) What are the US plans in the event of a war alongside the allied against Japan? Would they considering spending major forces to SEA or keep their fleet concentrated in the Pacific, possibly with a move to operate what they can - supply being an issue - in the SW Pacific region, to secure communications with Australia and threaten the eastern flank of the Japanese position in a role similar to OTL? d) If there are plans for co-operation with the allies how quickly would such US forces appear and where? If the Japanese were able to inflict a crushing defeat on a possibly over-confident allied fleet then the US sending a proportion of their fleet towards SEA while the rest stays in the Pacific could invite defeat in detail. As such that would only be a good idea if any US forces arrive while there are still substantial allied forces fighting. Similarly what would be set up to support any US force in the region in terms of their logistics and supply, especially in terms of munitions and spares which in many cases would be US specific.
Basically IF Japan goes to war I think that a strike against SEA as their overwhelming effort would be the priority with isolation and slow conquest of the Philippines and preferably for them Guam and Wake as secondary aims. They don't need to to control the Philippines as much as deny them to the allies as a location from which to attack the Japanese SLOC. It could also be argued that a Philippines slowly being overrun is better than one quickly conquered as it would put political pressure on the US to do something! I know that the naval plan was that the islands were indefensible and they couldn't be relieved but under political pressure the USN might come under pressure in some way.
One other point is that if war comes the Japanese will probably be striking a few months earlier, which would mean, especially with less tension with the US, that the US garrisons in the western Pacific would be somewhat less developed. As such it would be easier for Japan to take them, although Wake could end up as a poisoned chalice here as defending it against US attacks could be a problem for the IJN. On the down side here they would be without the two Shokaku clash CVs which were only entering in service in the last couple of months of 1941. Unless they could be rushed into service a bit earlier, which would make them pretty raw there would only be 4CV and some smaller converts.
Also how are things going in China? Probably a bit better for China because their likely getting more supplies. FIC hasn't fallen, cutting that route and providing another path for Japan to attack SE China and Britain wasn't forced to close the Burma road for a while in 1940 - albeit that according to some sources that was relatively trival as it was during the monsoon season so relatively little could be moved. Also unless the deal with Stalin included some restriction on Soviet aid to China the Soviets have probably also been able to increase their aid to China, both because they would be competing with the western powers and of course their not reeling from Operation Barbarossa. With the allied powers now at peace their likely to be able to increase aid significantly and I think you did mention the possibility of some equipment as the armies go back to a peace-time footing being transferred to China. The change at the moment is probably not massive and the Japanese would still be on top but unable to make any significant progress but it gives a suggestion that China can hold out until an isolated Japan is worn down, which would be an incentive for Japan to do something to change the situation. Especially with the fear/probability that western aid to China would greatly increase now Europe is at peace.
Getting back to the key issue I think Japan will have to react, either going to war or withdrawing from China proper. They can possibly argue for keeping control of Manchuria which some elements in the west might well accept, both to avoid pushing Japan too much into a corner and so that Japan is a counter factor to the USSR but that along with keeping Taiwan would be the maximum that I think would be tolerated by the west. Whether the Japanese leadership would be agreeable to such a deal or between their delusion self-confidence and the lose of face this would mean for the military, especially probably the army I don't know. The IJN would also be in an awkward position as they would know their large naval programme will be swamped by what the US is already building.
Because of their power and very blinkered world view I think the military leadership will decide on war, regardless of how hopeless the situation as a matter of honour. You might get some politician figures managing to persuade the emperor to step in but my gut feeling is war is likely.
In terms of the Soviets I don't think Stalin would step in in the short term at least. Assuming the non-aggression pact has been signed with Japan as OTL and given the dire Japanese position he's possibly feeling more secure about the eastern border than the western one. Possibly stepping in when Japan is really on the ropes, by which time the Red Army would be stronger or alternatively in the short term supplying Japan with the materials they need - to avoid the mistake he made with Hitler of sending too little too late.
That does open up a 3rd alternative. Not sure what Japan could supply in return but would there be a possibility of a deal between Japan and the USSR similar to that earlier with the Nazis. Japan gets the raw materials they need without going to war with the western powers and Stalin gets imperial Japan and their involvement in China as an additional force the western powers have to consider. I think this would be unlikely however as the two leaderships wouldn't trust each other much and also it would only delay things for the Japanese.
Anyway rabbited on but hopefully the above thoughts are useful.
|
|
575
Captain
There is no Purgatory for warcriminals - they go directly to Hell!
Posts: 2,732
Likes: 4,109
|
Post by 575 on May 11, 2024 10:28:28 GMT
I am really in several minds - there is no US oil boycot as there have been no Japanese pressure to get bases in FIC or move into it. OTOH I have really difficulty in seeing where Japanese would go if not the Soviets as with the British - French naval presence it seems unlikely that the IJN should split its forces to go at both Pearl and SEA. They would have to to counter British and French Carriers and Air. With a Soviet Union having its back free in the West and still supplying KMT/China Japan have limited options.
The Japanese going for DEI oil and Straits rubber would need to neutralize the US and British - French. The Dutch really would like an alliance with the Great Powers. Going against the Soviets really won't yield much except territory in Sibiria.. I don't see the Soviets getting anything from the US - British - French in such a scenario.
Really the Japanese have painted themselves into a corner. Any ideas - comments welcome.
Well, if they do got against the western powers I don't see the Pearl attack happening for three reasons.
a) They can't really afford to send a large force on such a risky mission when they will need everything they can to drive south and also support operations against the Philippines especially.
b) One of the military 'rules' is concentration of forces and spreading their battle fleet widely where they can't support each other is generally considered a big error. Albeit that's pretty much what they did at Midway, with the failed distraction in the Aleutians and the main attack towards Midway being split into several groups.
c) The drive south is the absolutely crucial operation. If their going to war with the western powers as a whole they need those resources and a failure to secure them would doom any war effort, which even the current Japanese military leadership must see so it would seem folly not to do everything they could to ensure that succeeds.
Also the plan for the attack on Pearl was a relatively late decision and prior to this the Japanese plan, which it still was to a degree, was to have the USN come to them in the expectation/hope of wearing it down before some final victory. OTL it could be argued that the Pearl attack backfired for Japan in several ways. One of which was that the losses at Pearl, coupled with the related US involvement in the European conflict meant that the US didn't have the naval strength to quickly attack. By the time they did start a major drive across the Pacific not only were they able to rely on massive new construction in place but the IJN was already bleed. Its possible that Japan's best bet here would be striking south quickly in the hope that they can defeat the allied forces quickly and win the resources they desire then be in place to counter a USN drive.
In terms of what the USN does in the case of war that would in part depend on the circumstances but some questions come to mind. a) Is their fleet actually forward based at Pearl? IIRC it was only moved from California in 1941 OTL and that was in part as an attempted deterrent to Japan. Here with France still free and the Germans already collapsing, plus now a major allied reinforcement of the SEA region, as well as no occupation of FIC would there be the same incentive for such a move? If it hasn't occurred then that makes an attack on the naval base pretty much redundant.
b) Assuming the Pacific fleet is at Pearl and with an allied victory in Europe has the US transferred more forces west to the Pacific? c) What are the US plans in the event of a war alongside the allied against Japan? Would they considering spending major forces to SEA or keep their fleet concentrated in the Pacific, possibly with a move to operate what they can - supply being an issue - in the SW Pacific region, to secure communications with Australia and threaten the eastern flank of the Japanese position in a role similar to OTL? d) If there are plans for co-operation with the allies how quickly would such US forces appear and where? If the Japanese were able to inflict a crushing defeat on a possibly over-confident allied fleet then the US sending a proportion of their fleet towards SEA while the rest stays in the Pacific could invite defeat in detail. As such that would only be a good idea if any US forces arrive while there are still substantial allied forces fighting. Similarly what would be set up to support any US force in the region in terms of their logistics and supply, especially in terms of munitions and spares which in many cases would be US specific.
Basically IF Japan goes to war I think that a strike against SEA as their overwhelming effort would be the priority with isolation and slow conquest of the Philippines and preferably for them Guam and Wake as secondary aims. They don't need to to control the Philippines as much as deny them to the allies as a location from which to attack the Japanese SLOC. It could also be argued that a Philippines slowly being overrun is better than one quickly conquered as it would put political pressure on the US to do something! I know that the naval plan was that the islands were indefensible and they couldn't be relieved but under political pressure the USN might come under pressure in some way.
One other point is that if war comes the Japanese will probably be striking a few months earlier, which would mean, especially with less tension with the US, that the US garrisons in the western Pacific would be somewhat less developed. As such it would be easier for Japan to take them, although Wake could end up as a poisoned chalice here as defending it against US attacks could be a problem for the IJN. On the down side here they would be without the two Shokaku clash CVs which were only entering in service in the last couple of months of 1941. Unless they could be rushed into service a bit earlier, which would make them pretty raw there would only be 4CV and some smaller converts.
Also how are things going in China? Probably a bit better for China because their likely getting more supplies. FIC hasn't fallen, cutting that route and providing another path for Japan to attack SE China and Britain wasn't forced to close the Burma road for a while in 1940 - albeit that according to some sources that was relatively trival as it was during the monsoon season so relatively little could be moved. Also unless the deal with Stalin included some restriction on Soviet aid to China the Soviets have probably also been able to increase their aid to China, both because they would be competing with the western powers and of course their not reeling from Operation Barbarossa. With the allied powers now at peace their likely to be able to increase aid significantly and I think you did mention the possibility of some equipment as the armies go back to a peace-time footing being transferred to China. The change at the moment is probably not massive and the Japanese would still be on top but unable to make any significant progress but it gives a suggestion that China can hold out until an isolated Japan is worn down, which would be an incentive for Japan to do something to change the situation. Especially with the fear/probability that western aid to China would greatly increase now Europe is at peace.
Getting back to the key issue I think Japan will have to react, either going to war or withdrawing from China proper. They can possibly argue for keeping control of Manchuria which some elements in the west might well accept, both to avoid pushing Japan too much into a corner and so that Japan is a counter factor to the USSR but that along with keeping Taiwan would be the maximum that I think would be tolerated by the west. Whether the Japanese leadership would be agreeable to such a deal or between their delusion self-confidence and the lose of face this would mean for the military, especially probably the army I don't know. The IJN would also be in an awkward position as they would know their large naval programme will be swamped by what the US is already building.
Because of their power and very blinkered world view I think the military leadership will decide on war, regardless of how hopeless the situation as a matter of honour. You might get some politician figures managing to persuade the emperor to step in but my gut feeling is war is likely.
In terms of the Soviets I don't think Stalin would step in in the short term at least. Assuming the non-aggression pact has been signed with Japan as OTL and given the dire Japanese position he's possibly feeling more secure about the eastern border than the western one. Possibly stepping in when Japan is really on the ropes, by which time the Red Army would be stronger or alternatively in the short term supplying Japan with the materials they need - to avoid the mistake he made with Hitler of sending too little too late.
That does open up a 3rd alternative. Not sure what Japan could supply in return but would there be a possibility of a deal between Japan and the USSR similar to that earlier with the Nazis. Japan gets the raw materials they need without going to war with the western powers and Stalin gets imperial Japan and their involvement in China as an additional force the western powers have to consider. I think this would be unlikely however as the two leaderships wouldn't trust each other much and also it would only delay things for the Japanese.
Anyway rabbited on but hopefully the above thoughts are useful.
stevep;
Very usefull thoughts! Does reinforce my thoughts on what would be the real objective of Japan. Hadn't thought that the USN might not have deployed forward but as the oilembargo haven't been declared the USN may well be at San Diego and other West Coast ports.
Of course one should concentrate ones forces which was part of my last post - the IJN wouldn't like the prospect of splitting up to attack in one area and watch the other end! Hence why I wrote that this being the last moment for a Japanese entry into war.
Stalin - well he can't offer the Japanese rubber which they badly need but oil, coal and metals indeed. Would he be so devious as to supply the Chinese AND the Japanese at the same time? I don't think so. OTOH he certainly won't inform the Allies when the Japanese are determined on going south as in OTL. Just lean back ready to pick up the spoils - Manchuria as OTL.
The Chinese have been benefitting from continued Soviet supply and increased Allied such of surplus materiel though of course the Monsoon have constrained use of the Burma Road though the raillines from Tonkin should be generally operable. Thus a Japanese attack in SEA would be a landing at Tonkin and raids on Cam Rahn Bay and Singapore to eliminate the Allied Naval threat to shield the main operation into DEI.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,836
Likes: 13,224
|
Post by stevep on May 11, 2024 12:32:44 GMT
Well, if they do got against the western powers I don't see the Pearl attack happening for three reasons.
a) They can't really afford to send a large force on such a risky mission when they will need everything they can to drive south and also support operations against the Philippines especially.
b) One of the military 'rules' is concentration of forces and spreading their battle fleet widely where they can't support each other is generally considered a big error. Albeit that's pretty much what they did at Midway, with the failed distraction in the Aleutians and the main attack towards Midway being split into several groups.
c) The drive south is the absolutely crucial operation. If their going to war with the western powers as a whole they need those resources and a failure to secure them would doom any war effort, which even the current Japanese military leadership must see so it would seem folly not to do everything they could to ensure that succeeds.
Also the plan for the attack on Pearl was a relatively late decision and prior to this the Japanese plan, which it still was to a degree, was to have the USN come to them in the expectation/hope of wearing it down before some final victory. OTL it could be argued that the Pearl attack backfired for Japan in several ways. One of which was that the losses at Pearl, coupled with the related US involvement in the European conflict meant that the US didn't have the naval strength to quickly attack. By the time they did start a major drive across the Pacific not only were they able to rely on massive new construction in place but the IJN was already bleed. Its possible that Japan's best bet here would be striking south quickly in the hope that they can defeat the allied forces quickly and win the resources they desire then be in place to counter a USN drive.
In terms of what the USN does in the case of war that would in part depend on the circumstances but some questions come to mind. a) Is their fleet actually forward based at Pearl? IIRC it was only moved from California in 1941 OTL and that was in part as an attempted deterrent to Japan. Here with France still free and the Germans already collapsing, plus now a major allied reinforcement of the SEA region, as well as no occupation of FIC would there be the same incentive for such a move? If it hasn't occurred then that makes an attack on the naval base pretty much redundant.
b) Assuming the Pacific fleet is at Pearl and with an allied victory in Europe has the US transferred more forces west to the Pacific? c) What are the US plans in the event of a war alongside the allied against Japan? Would they considering spending major forces to SEA or keep their fleet concentrated in the Pacific, possibly with a move to operate what they can - supply being an issue - in the SW Pacific region, to secure communications with Australia and threaten the eastern flank of the Japanese position in a role similar to OTL? d) If there are plans for co-operation with the allies how quickly would such US forces appear and where? If the Japanese were able to inflict a crushing defeat on a possibly over-confident allied fleet then the US sending a proportion of their fleet towards SEA while the rest stays in the Pacific could invite defeat in detail. As such that would only be a good idea if any US forces arrive while there are still substantial allied forces fighting. Similarly what would be set up to support any US force in the region in terms of their logistics and supply, especially in terms of munitions and spares which in many cases would be US specific.
Basically IF Japan goes to war I think that a strike against SEA as their overwhelming effort would be the priority with isolation and slow conquest of the Philippines and preferably for them Guam and Wake as secondary aims. They don't need to to control the Philippines as much as deny them to the allies as a location from which to attack the Japanese SLOC. It could also be argued that a Philippines slowly being overrun is better than one quickly conquered as it would put political pressure on the US to do something! I know that the naval plan was that the islands were indefensible and they couldn't be relieved but under political pressure the USN might come under pressure in some way.
One other point is that if war comes the Japanese will probably be striking a few months earlier, which would mean, especially with less tension with the US, that the US garrisons in the western Pacific would be somewhat less developed. As such it would be easier for Japan to take them, although Wake could end up as a poisoned chalice here as defending it against US attacks could be a problem for the IJN. On the down side here they would be without the two Shokaku clash CVs which were only entering in service in the last couple of months of 1941. Unless they could be rushed into service a bit earlier, which would make them pretty raw there would only be 4CV and some smaller converts.
Also how are things going in China? Probably a bit better for China because their likely getting more supplies. FIC hasn't fallen, cutting that route and providing another path for Japan to attack SE China and Britain wasn't forced to close the Burma road for a while in 1940 - albeit that according to some sources that was relatively trival as it was during the monsoon season so relatively little could be moved. Also unless the deal with Stalin included some restriction on Soviet aid to China the Soviets have probably also been able to increase their aid to China, both because they would be competing with the western powers and of course their not reeling from Operation Barbarossa. With the allied powers now at peace their likely to be able to increase aid significantly and I think you did mention the possibility of some equipment as the armies go back to a peace-time footing being transferred to China. The change at the moment is probably not massive and the Japanese would still be on top but unable to make any significant progress but it gives a suggestion that China can hold out until an isolated Japan is worn down, which would be an incentive for Japan to do something to change the situation. Especially with the fear/probability that western aid to China would greatly increase now Europe is at peace.
Getting back to the key issue I think Japan will have to react, either going to war or withdrawing from China proper. They can possibly argue for keeping control of Manchuria which some elements in the west might well accept, both to avoid pushing Japan too much into a corner and so that Japan is a counter factor to the USSR but that along with keeping Taiwan would be the maximum that I think would be tolerated by the west. Whether the Japanese leadership would be agreeable to such a deal or between their delusion self-confidence and the lose of face this would mean for the military, especially probably the army I don't know. The IJN would also be in an awkward position as they would know their large naval programme will be swamped by what the US is already building.
Because of their power and very blinkered world view I think the military leadership will decide on war, regardless of how hopeless the situation as a matter of honour. You might get some politician figures managing to persuade the emperor to step in but my gut feeling is war is likely.
In terms of the Soviets I don't think Stalin would step in in the short term at least. Assuming the non-aggression pact has been signed with Japan as OTL and given the dire Japanese position he's possibly feeling more secure about the eastern border than the western one. Possibly stepping in when Japan is really on the ropes, by which time the Red Army would be stronger or alternatively in the short term supplying Japan with the materials they need - to avoid the mistake he made with Hitler of sending too little too late.
That does open up a 3rd alternative. Not sure what Japan could supply in return but would there be a possibility of a deal between Japan and the USSR similar to that earlier with the Nazis. Japan gets the raw materials they need without going to war with the western powers and Stalin gets imperial Japan and their involvement in China as an additional force the western powers have to consider. I think this would be unlikely however as the two leaderships wouldn't trust each other much and also it would only delay things for the Japanese.
Anyway rabbited on but hopefully the above thoughts are useful.
stevep;
Very usefull thoughts! Does reinforce my thoughts on what would be the real objective of Japan. Hadn't thought that the USN might not have deployed forward but as the oilembargo haven't been declared the USN may well be at San Diego and other West Coast ports.
Of course one should concentrate ones forces which was part of my last post - the IJN wouldn't like the prospect of splitting up to attack in one area and watch the other end! Hence why I wrote that this being the last moment for a Japanese entry into war.
Stalin - well he can't offer the Japanese rubber which they badly need but oil, coal and metals indeed. Would he be so devious as to supply the Chinese AND the Japanese at the same time? I don't think so. OTOH he certainly won't inform the Allies when the Japanese are determined on going south as in OTL. Just lean back ready to pick up the spoils - Manchuria as OTL.
The Chinese have been benefitting from continued Soviet supply and increased Allied such of surplus materiel though of course the Monsoon have constrained use of the Burma Road though the raillines from Tonkin should be generally operable. Thus a Japanese attack in SEA would be a landing at Tonkin and raids on Cam Rahn Bay and Singapore to eliminate the Allied Naval threat to shield the main operation into DEI.
I must admit I only thought whether the US Pacific fleet was at Pearl while writing the post as it didn't occur to me earlier.
Its difficult and I suspect that Stalin won't do a trade deal with Japan to help them if they end up at war with the western powers but I was thinking he might regret not supporting Hitler more economically and keeping the western allies busy and seeing Japan as an alternative for keeping the western powers distracted. However it would poison relations with the KMT and cause problems with the western powers so agree its unlikely. Just an idea that occurred to me as an outside possibility.
|
|
575
Captain
There is no Purgatory for warcriminals - they go directly to Hell!
Posts: 2,732
Likes: 4,109
|
Post by 575 on May 11, 2024 16:26:20 GMT
stevep;
Very usefull thoughts! Does reinforce my thoughts on what would be the real objective of Japan. Hadn't thought that the USN might not have deployed forward but as the oilembargo haven't been declared the USN may well be at San Diego and other West Coast ports.
Of course one should concentrate ones forces which was part of my last post - the IJN wouldn't like the prospect of splitting up to attack in one area and watch the other end! Hence why I wrote that this being the last moment for a Japanese entry into war.
Stalin - well he can't offer the Japanese rubber which they badly need but oil, coal and metals indeed. Would he be so devious as to supply the Chinese AND the Japanese at the same time? I don't think so. OTOH he certainly won't inform the Allies when the Japanese are determined on going south as in OTL. Just lean back ready to pick up the spoils - Manchuria as OTL.
The Chinese have been benefitting from continued Soviet supply and increased Allied such of surplus materiel though of course the Monsoon have constrained use of the Burma Road though the raillines from Tonkin should be generally operable. Thus a Japanese attack in SEA would be a landing at Tonkin and raids on Cam Rahn Bay and Singapore to eliminate the Allied Naval threat to shield the main operation into DEI.
I must admit I only thought whether the US Pacific fleet was at Pearl while writing the post as it didn't occur to me earlier.
Its difficult and I suspect that Stalin won't do a trade deal with Japan to help them if they end up at war with the western powers but I was thinking he might regret not supporting Hitler more economically and keeping the western allies busy and seeing Japan as an alternative for keeping the western powers distracted. However it would poison relations with the KMT and cause problems with the western powers so agree its unlikely. Just an idea that occurred to me as an outside possibility.
Looked it up - seems the Fleet were at Pearl from April 1940 on the orders of Roosevelt and stayed there even though the real West Coast Base being at San Pedro close to LA, Calif. |
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,836
Likes: 13,224
|
Post by stevep on May 12, 2024 14:47:30 GMT
I must admit I only thought whether the US Pacific fleet was at Pearl while writing the post as it didn't occur to me earlier.
Its difficult and I suspect that Stalin won't do a trade deal with Japan to help them if they end up at war with the western powers but I was thinking he might regret not supporting Hitler more economically and keeping the western allies busy and seeing Japan as an alternative for keeping the western powers distracted. However it would poison relations with the KMT and cause problems with the western powers so agree its unlikely. Just an idea that occurred to me as an outside possibility.
Looked it up - seems the Fleet were at Pearl from April 1940 on the orders of Roosevelt and stayed there even though the real West Coast Base being at San Pedro close to LA, Calif.
Interesting thanks. I thought it was only sent west about a year latter as the tension got worse in the Pacific. That is a damning indictment of Roosevelt if fully accurate. It also suggests that the US Pacific fleet was lacking in training facilities and suffering morale problems which would have adversely affected its performance without the devastating strike on 7-12-41. Not sure how many of those shortcomings had been overcome by Dec 41.
Its strange that Roosevelt would argue the fleet was moved east then to deter against a Japanese strike into SEA as this was before the drastic fall of France and then the occupation of FIC by Japan. Coupled with the more isolationist position of the US at this point and that a crucial election was coming up in Nov I'm not sure how believable the argument that the US would go to war to support the western allies in those circumstances is. On the other hand it seems that Roosevelt made quite a number of political decisions which had little strategic or military merit.
That the fleet moved west so early would suggest their likely to still do that in this scenario and also stay there until this point. In which case an attack on it by Japan is a possible operation but with only 4 fleet CV until pretty much Nov its going to commit a significant proportion of their naval strength for the 1st few weeks of the war. With the advantage of hindsight I would suggest its an even worse idea for Japan than OTL but then I'm not in command of the Japanese military.
|
|
575
Captain
There is no Purgatory for warcriminals - they go directly to Hell!
Posts: 2,732
Likes: 4,109
|
Post by 575 on May 13, 2024 10:25:44 GMT
Something seriously had happened to the RN Carrier Fighter Aircraft. Allowed to test a French Grumman F-4F the test pilots had lots of praise; of course there was problems too but instead of developing a new singleseat Carrier border Fighter the RN decided to go for the F-4F – termed Martlet - to supply the Fairey Fulmars instead of Sea Gladiators as the 4x .50cal guns gave much more firepower than the 4x .303 of the Gladiator. The drawback to the RN was that the F-4F didn't have folding wings so usually stored on the flight deck.
This would prove a sound decision come December 1941 in the Far East.
Both the Illustrious Carriers had Swordfish with airborne radar of a range of 65km and type 79 with range up to 75km. Ark Royal carried the larger airgroup of 54 compared to the other carriers 38. All three had been loaded up with Spitfires as deckload for the reinforcement of Malayan airdefences.
Adding to these radars was those on Capital ships and Cruisers.
The defences of NEI/Netherlands East Indies incorporated 29 Operational Dornier 24K flying boats. These had been delivered prior to the German attack on France. More were enroute to DEI.
A number of Fokker D-XXI fighters had been shipped off crated during the war in Europe with British blessing and was making up fighter defences of NEI Army Airforce.
The IJA had reserved 10 Divisions and 3 Brigades for operations along some Airgroups of Bombers and Fighters.
IJN decided that Singapore would be attacked by a larger Carrier Group due to the distance from Hainan Island which meant that landbased Fighters wouldn't be able to support the IJN over Singapore Base.
The presence of the RN Battleship and Carrier Squadron along the Fighter Sqd's based there would necessiate an airumbrella which Hainan base couldn't provide.
The major problem vis-a-vis an attack across the Pacific towards Pearl Harbour in Hawaii was that the Carrier group had to travel close to potentially hostile waters – FIC and NEI from where reconnaisance might de dispatched.
Thus the attack needed much secrecy to not alarm the WAllies hence the Carrier group assembled at Taiwan to move up to east of Hainan before turning southwest through the South China Sea. Other approaches had been discussed but eventually it was decided that it was a risk to be taken and keep a fighter cap over the Carrier group during movement which would keep the pilots alert and make for eventual reconnaisance aircraft to be shot down.
Some deceptive means was employed to make the British at Hong Kong and their old ally Portugal at Macao blind to the manoevres mainly by staying off international routes of shipping.
The WAllies had been informed by the Chinese of the buildup of the IJA and IJN units on Hainan Island – land and air formations but the Japanese rejected allegations of possible attack by referring to operations in Kwangtung and Kwangsi provinces on the Chinese mainland where fighting was ongoing.
With no sign of major IJA units around Hainan the RAF had deployed a few Short Stirling aircraft rigged with radiointercept equipment to patrol at sea for finding the IJA. The range of the big aircraft well suited it for the task.
Such aircraft had also been deployed to Cam Rahn Bay airbase to support the French Battleships and fighter aircraft as the French had set up their Radar at Tonkin to intercept Japanese attackers going for the ports.
The position of Cam Rahn Bay just to the north in the bend of the FIC coast at Phan Rang was well suited to depart from to reconnoiter the South China Sea from a fleet going southwest from Taiwan; where the IJA Carrier group was supposed to assemble – if an attack on Singapore would be in the cards.
At Cam Rahn Bay a few venerable French Farman 221 and Potez 542 had been fitted out with RN on loan ASV Radar sets to enable the French to share the reconnaisance job.
Also in on the reconnaisance was FAA Short Sunderland flying boats operating out of Singapore and Brunei and the Dutch Donier Do24's flying out of NEI; formally neutrals as the British and French the Dutch had been open to visits by FAA Sunderlands enroute to Australia and New Zealand.
Totally secret a small MI6 team had been sent off to NEI with a couple of ASV radar sets and FAA operators to see these installed in some Dutch Dorniers. Those Dorniers would frequently visit Brunei on patrols to benefit from the on station Radar service unit and the British liquor at the Mess.
Churchill had very cautiously asked President Roosevelt on the US position in the South East Asia which had surprised the President. More than 2 years of battling Nazi-Germany taught the British and their French allies to be cautious and prepare for the worst.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,836
Likes: 13,224
|
Post by stevep on May 13, 2024 15:59:47 GMT
So it sounds like Japan is definitely heading south, or at least planning to. From the comment about how useful the Martlet would be in Dec 41 that would suggest that Japan is waiting until the historical date which means they would have 6 CV available plus possibly some merchant converts although they might be used elsewhere. As they realise the mission would need to approach through allied controlled waters so secrecy would be difficult, especially with allied radar capacity and war experience so it could be that they have to fight their way in, which if the fleet gets any warning would mean its likely to fail as the fleet should be able to get to sea. Of course with the size of the allied fleet and its probably larger preparation that the US OTL, plus lack of knowledge of Japanese carrier ability that the allies seek battle, which could be costly for both sides.
Electronic warfare could be important as well as the allies have experience from their work on the German enigma codes, although that could have been less developed OTL and how relative it might be to breaking Japanese codes, plus the OTL Japanese successes in deceiving the US as to the locations of their CV forces could nullify that threat.
Britain at least should have a fair number of subs on patrol in the region as well as the aircraft and with radar the latter would be especially dangerous for detecting the Japanese force at night.
One big issue is that the Japanese need to do two things to drive south successfully. That is defeat the allied naval forces and then land ground units to enable the occupation of the southern resource zone. Given an even partially prepared allied forces even if the allied fleet suffered a shattering defeat achieving the 2nd part of that requirement is going to be difficult. With FIC unfriendly and Thailand probably cautiously neutral Japan will have no bases south of the Hainan island region until they seize some and then have to supply such bases until they can secure air and naval security. This could be a bigger killing ground for the Japanese ships, both military and merchant than the Solomon's ever were. Frankly I can't see such an operation succeeding unless Japan can turn Thailand very quickly - and even then bases there would be isolated by FIC and/or get widespread support from rebels in the DEI.
Is the force attacking Singapore a purely naval one for an attack on the fleet or does it include army forces for invasions of locations such as Malaya? If the latter then the Japanese are going to have to keep forces around to support the landings and then protect supply forces. This is going to be very difficult and the CVs especially are likely to have to withdraw quickly as if nothing else their likely to run out of aviation fuel and bombs/torpedoes. If there is no invasion force attached then they can try a quick in, attack and withdrawal but that does mean that it leaves the allies warned for when invasion forces are sent. The 3rd option I suppose is having two separate forces for each task but that further increases the chances of the moves being detected and also would split escort forces.
Frankly the OTL operations for invading Malaya - and Borneo then other parts of SEA are drastically different from the purely naval strike operation at Pearl. Here the Japanese are going to have to do both in the same theatre, with a much more powerful allied fleet compared to OTL Force Z and with little/no land based air support. Despite the fact the Japanese are likely to have some big advantages in the skill of many of their units and probably too many western forces being over-confident this is going to be very difficult even without the issue of any fighting against Japan. Plus if the allies have started shipping land and air forces to the region their likely to have some combat experience, both in front line terms and also at officer levels which means their less likely to be as complacent.
Anyway babbling a bit but the Japanese have a huge task and I think they will fail, possibly very quickly if allied forces can sink key units, especially their CVs.
One problem the RN have with the Martlet's using deck storage is that they haven't done that before and that will cause some issues. Also it could run into problems when the monsoon period arrives.
|
|
575
Captain
There is no Purgatory for warcriminals - they go directly to Hell!
Posts: 2,732
Likes: 4,109
|
Post by 575 on May 13, 2024 19:28:26 GMT
So it sounds like Japan is definitely heading south, or at least planning to. From the comment about how useful the Martlet would be in Dec 41 that would suggest that Japan is waiting until the historical date which means they would have 6 CV available plus possibly some merchant converts although they might be used elsewhere. As they realise the mission would need to approach through allied controlled waters so secrecy would be difficult, especially with allied radar capacity and war experience so it could be that they have to fight their way in, which if the fleet gets any warning would mean its likely to fail as the fleet should be able to get to sea. Of course with the size of the allied fleet and its probably larger preparation that the US OTL, plus lack of knowledge of Japanese carrier ability that the allies seek battle, which could be costly for both sides.
Electronic warfare could be important as well as the allies have experience from their work on the German enigma codes, although that could have been less developed OTL and how relative it might be to breaking Japanese codes, plus the OTL Japanese successes in deceiving the US as to the locations of their CV forces could nullify that threat.
Britain at least should have a fair number of subs on patrol in the region as well as the aircraft and with radar the latter would be especially dangerous for detecting the Japanese force at night.
One big issue is that the Japanese need to do two things to drive south successfully. That is defeat the allied naval forces and then land ground units to enable the occupation of the southern resource zone. Given an even partially prepared allied forces even if the allied fleet suffered a shattering defeat achieving the 2nd part of that requirement is going to be difficult. With FIC unfriendly and Thailand probably cautiously neutral Japan will have no bases south of the Hainan island region until they seize some and then have to supply such bases until they can secure air and naval security. This could be a bigger killing ground for the Japanese ships, both military and merchant than the Solomon's ever were. Frankly I can't see such an operation succeeding unless Japan can turn Thailand very quickly - and even then bases there would be isolated by FIC and/or get widespread support from rebels in the DEI.
Is the force attacking Singapore a purely naval one for an attack on the fleet or does it include army forces for invasions of locations such as Malaya? If the latter then the Japanese are going to have to keep forces around to support the landings and then protect supply forces. This is going to be very difficult and the CVs especially are likely to have to withdraw quickly as if nothing else their likely to run out of aviation fuel and bombs/torpedoes. If there is no invasion force attached then they can try a quick in, attack and withdrawal but that does mean that it leaves the allies warned for when invasion forces are sent. The 3rd option I suppose is having two separate forces for each task but that further increases the chances of the moves being detected and also would split escort forces.
Frankly the OTL operations for invading Malaya - and Borneo then other parts of SEA are drastically different from the purely naval strike operation at Pearl. Here the Japanese are going to have to do both in the same theatre, with a much more powerful allied fleet compared to OTL Force Z and with little/no land based air support. Despite the fact the Japanese are likely to have some big advantages in the skill of many of their units and probably too many western forces being over-confident this is going to be very difficult even without the issue of any fighting against Japan. Plus if the allies have started shipping land and air forces to the region their likely to have some combat experience, both in front line terms and also at officer levels which means their less likely to be as complacent.
Anyway babbling a bit but the Japanese have a huge task and I think they will fail, possibly very quickly if allied forces can sink key units, especially their CVs.
One problem the RN have with the Martlet's using deck storage is that they haven't done that before and that will cause some issues. Also it could run into problems when the monsoon period arrives.
Soon coming up with more info leading up to the Japanese attack. Really the Japanese position is quite bad. I'd expect Japan to exchange Singapore for Pearl and use landbased Aircraft out of Hainan for FIC. Problem is they don't know what awaits them certainly not that these are war experienced forces both British and French with an ace up their sleeve of Radar. Next post will have something on that too. The IJN force for Singapore would comprise mainly those units to ensure RN defeat though the British also have landbased Air. Going from Taiwan and then through the South China Sea will be running the gauntle style for the IJN - with all that radar on the fringes it will be a matter of time before its detected. And yes RN and Dutch Subs will be in the drink. However sheer numbers and the will to press home may aid the IJN.
Intelligence and Ultra will also be part of that suffice to say the Allies know the Japanse is up to something - they just don't have a Richard Sorge at Tokyo. The various Japanese invasion forces made use in shifts of the IJN units which was perfectly possible with the weak Allied presence in area - this is another kettle of fish. Even the Dutch have gotten Fighter Aircraft into theatre.
|
|
575
Captain
There is no Purgatory for warcriminals - they go directly to Hell!
Posts: 2,732
Likes: 4,109
|
Post by 575 on May 13, 2024 19:28:58 GMT
Intelligence
GCHQ had a suspicion that the USN had cracked the Japanese codeengine but Churchill decided not to mention such though it seemed from information gathered when troops moved into Germany that there had been some radiotraffic between OKW HQ Zossen, Germany and Tokyo, Japan as well as to the German embassy.
Signals decoded indicated that Japan had been much into directing German searches for rawmaterials such as rubber, oil, manganese, chromium, cotton. There was some communications about this and also the transit at Vladivostok for stocks to be railed west through the Soviet Union.
GCHQ had asked the Ultra team at Bletchley Park of borrowing Turing and the remaing Poles for a special assignment sending these to Germany along the occupation troops to pick up any loose ends from the other side – among these any information on German procurement of vital rawmaterials mainly from the Far East especially those with a Japanese angle.
Though Ultra/Enigma had yielded valuable information on especially Luftwaffe dispositions Heer and Kriegsmarine pick-ups had been less. Kriegsmarine with the huge losses however mattered less.
Somebody at GCHQ had a hitch that the German Foreign Office information might have information regarding the relationship with Japan and the Soviet Union both regarding German dealings with the Soviets regarding their trade agreement but also the possibility that Japan had collaborated with Germany in securing the latter valuable raw materials needed for the war. There might just be hints of policy of Germany vis-a-vis Soviet Union and Germany vis-a-vis Japan which when compared might make for a more clear picture and perhaps uncover if any arrangements had been made regarding Japans role in a more global arrangement such as the Anti-Comintern Pact.
Both the German Foreign Office and Ministry of Trade had been found to offer interesting information regarding Japan and bits of Japanes cyphers translated into German. Which would prove the real can-opener.
Returning from Germany Turing and his team was given a new assignment – decrypt the radio communication of the Japanese Embassy at London; the French was setting up their own unit in Paris also tuning in on the Japanese mainly due to the aggressive stance of Japan regarding FIC and possible contacts of Ho Chi Mihn with the Japanese – or Americans.
The French had been very aggressive during the roundup in Germany of equipment, personnel and data emerging from Ultra/Enigma communication and had had the like ideas of the German Foreign Office and Ministry of Trade.
Thus besides the buildup at Hainan Island the WAllies began getting information making them able to assemble parts of the intelligence puzzle regarding Japanese intentions in the Far East.
The final piece to the puzzle was the route of the Japanese State Tankers which when leaving NEI always would have a short stop at Taiwan but only initiated recently and seemingly delivering oil much above the need at Taiwan even as was with active IJA and IJN air units based.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,836
Likes: 13,224
|
Post by stevep on May 13, 2024 23:17:08 GMT
This is going to be messy and probably bloody for both sides. I get the feeling Japan could win a victory in terms of doing a hell of a lot of damage to the allied fleets but take heavy losses themselves and hence be unable to force their way behind fringes of the region, i.e. probably Borneo and say Celebes along with attacks on FIC that may or may not work but would fail in any attempts against Malaya, Java and Sumatra. And that's possibly the high point they can really hope for.Coupled with I suspect some attacks on US possessions to neutralise them.
One point that might occur is the status of Wake Is. OTL it was able to put up a stiff defence but not for long. Here it could be less weakly defended, about the same or more heavily - especially since with no crisis in Europe the Us is able to concentrate resources in the Pacific once its clear Germany is no longer a threat. I can see Japan taking Guam and after a fight the Philippines but then steadily being worn down by the allied powers.
Anyway looking forward to seeing what you come up with.
|
|
575
Captain
There is no Purgatory for warcriminals - they go directly to Hell!
Posts: 2,732
Likes: 4,109
|
Post by 575 on May 14, 2024 10:15:41 GMT
Still some preparations before a War in the Far East may unfold:
Colonials
The early transport of Australian, New Zealand and Canadian troops to the Middle East and Britain building these into Divisions had due to the containment of the war to Europe meant that the Australians and New Zealand units had been moved to the Far East to garrison Malaya and Brunei as well as New Guinea; as some of the initial Brigades shipped to Britain had seen combat in France and then shipped to FE they made for an experienced cadre on which to build the Divisions. This wasn't just done to appease Australian and New Zealand Governments who wanted their troops closer to home as the political situation indicated a Japan possible of choosing a fight with Colonials in area just nobody knew where.
This was also a factor contributing to the French moving troops to FIC mainly to deter the Thai's from doing anything but also with Japan on nearby Hainan Island things just might escalate and there had been plenty Japanese complaints of the Colonial Powers aiding China which was an insult to Japan who wanted to rid the FE of the Colonials.
The Canadians had been kept in Britain for having an experienced defensive force ready should it be needed on the Continent or shipped to FE.
The Middle East and NA had seen no fighting but still a force in being was needed to watch the Italians though as the war in Europe drew to a close some units were returned there freeing up more units for FE both British and French.
The return of a major part of the French NA Divisions including the 6 DLC which had kept its Cavalry denomination but was a through and through heavy Armoured Division was party to keeping the Italians in check.
The French also had begun due to the tension in FE sending some of the Colonial Divisions which had been a not insignificant part of the French Infantry home one of which went to FIC heavily boosting the French Army present and providing it with a battle experienced cadre to up training of those units already there.
As with ground troops Naval and Air units had also been shifting to FE; the Naval units as the German Kriegsmarine thread had been eliminated and the Air units following the defeat of Germany and which had the ability of fast relocation as base element hardware would be left in situ and readily moveable such shipped off from the Middle East or India.
War had taught some much needed friction less moving of units and with Churchill still at the helm the Armed forces of Britain didn't see an immediate demobilization – units were needed to secure the peace in Europe and trained manpower of all kinds needed for reinforcing the FE.
Besides the Aus and NZ units the Indian Army being in place had had its training updated by dissiminated information on tactic changes due to the experiences in Europe making that more realistic and up to date.
As the RN Force of Battleships and Aircraft Carriers reached Singapore the parts of the Australian and New Zealand Navies was attached it.
|
|
575
Captain
There is no Purgatory for warcriminals - they go directly to Hell!
Posts: 2,732
Likes: 4,109
|
Post by 575 on May 14, 2024 12:31:20 GMT
Have been looking up possible Japanese War plans for SEA and Pacific - seems really to have been more policy than actual planning. Which leaves me a lot of freedom. Will have to think things through though!  |
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,836
Likes: 13,224
|
Post by stevep on May 14, 2024 13:00:30 GMT
One other point that comes to mind, although it might not make a big difference is whether or not the P-51 comes into existence in TTL, or at least become an existing design. It was being developed by NAA [North American Aviation] in response to a request from Britain for a design but was initially fitted with a Allison engine without supercharger and was rather disappointing in performance. I have read it was nearly dropped but the suggestion was made in the UK of fitting it with a supercharged Merlin which drastically improve its performance, especially at high altitude. Without the same problems for the UK it might not be proposed or possibly not modified, especially with the war in Europe ending when it did.
The key section from the wiki link on the P51 Mustang is here.
It probably wouldn't make a great difference in history as other craft would be developed over time and also I don't think it had any major role in the Pacific theatre which is likely to be radically different here anyway even assuming that the US is involved as a combatant.
More generally relations between Britain, France and the US are going to be different here post war as there's going to be a lot more tension between the allies and the US both on political and economic issues. Although the allies will most likely bear the brute of the war in the Pacific as they did in Europe their not going to be anything like as economically shatter here as they were OTL so likely to be economic tensions between the two. The US will still be the greatest economic power by a big distance but its going to have some rivals which means that its unlikely to switch to a free trade agenda. Also with the allies in better condition there's not going to be any L-L here or Marshall Plan after the fighting ends.
|
|
575
Captain
There is no Purgatory for warcriminals - they go directly to Hell!
Posts: 2,732
Likes: 4,109
|
Post by 575 on May 14, 2024 14:06:17 GMT
One other point that comes to mind, although it might not make a big difference is whether or not the P-51 comes into existence in TTL, or at least become an existing design. It was being developed by NAA [North American Aviation] in response to a request from Britain for a design but was initially fitted with a Allison engine without supercharger and was rather disappointing in performance. I have read it was nearly dropped but the suggestion was made in the UK of fitting it with a supercharged Merlin which drastically improve its performance, especially at high altitude. Without the same problems for the UK it might not be proposed or possibly not modified, especially with the war in Europe ending when it did.
The key section from the wiki link on the P51 Mustang is here.
It probably wouldn't make a great difference in history as other craft would be developed over time and also I don't think it had any major role in the Pacific theatre which is likely to be radically different here anyway even assuming that the US is involved as a combatant.
More generally relations between Britain, France and the US are going to be different here post war as there's going to be a lot more tension between the allies and the US both on political and economic issues. Although the allies will most likely bear the brute of the war in the Pacific as they did in Europe their not going to be anything like as economically shatter here as they were OTL so likely to be economic tensions between the two. The US will still be the greatest economic power by a big distance but its going to have some rivals which means that its unlikely to switch to a free trade agenda. Also with the allies in better condition there's not going to be any L-L here or Marshall Plan after the fighting ends.
I think the Mustang is very tempting though ITTL I see the Dewoitine D520 filling that long range role. It had a range of the late Mustang without eksternal tanks and with a continued development - more powerfull engine the Hispano-Suiza 12Z of 1800 hp like the Klimov clone made by Soviet Union powering the Yak-3 fighter - it would fill that niche and this was just the OTL development. An internal fueltank like in the Mustang would have provided even more range though as it would change the balance of the aircraft external drop-tanks could have been developed.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,836
Likes: 13,224
|
Post by stevep on May 16, 2024 13:41:19 GMT
One other point that comes to mind, although it might not make a big difference is whether or not the P-51 comes into existence in TTL, or at least become an existing design. It was being developed by NAA [North American Aviation] in response to a request from Britain for a design but was initially fitted with a Allison engine without supercharger and was rather disappointing in performance. I have read it was nearly dropped but the suggestion was made in the UK of fitting it with a supercharged Merlin which drastically improve its performance, especially at high altitude. Without the same problems for the UK it might not be proposed or possibly not modified, especially with the war in Europe ending when it did.
The key section from the wiki link on the P51 Mustang is here.
It probably wouldn't make a great difference in history as other craft would be developed over time and also I don't think it had any major role in the Pacific theatre which is likely to be radically different here anyway even assuming that the US is involved as a combatant.
More generally relations between Britain, France and the US are going to be different here post war as there's going to be a lot more tension between the allies and the US both on political and economic issues. Although the allies will most likely bear the brute of the war in the Pacific as they did in Europe their not going to be anything like as economically shatter here as they were OTL so likely to be economic tensions between the two. The US will still be the greatest economic power by a big distance but its going to have some rivals which means that its unlikely to switch to a free trade agenda. Also with the allies in better condition there's not going to be any L-L here or Marshall Plan after the fighting ends.
I think the Mustang is very tempting though ITTL I see the Dewoitine D520 filling that long range role. It had a range of the late Mustang without eksternal tanks and with a continued development - more powerfull engine the Hispano-Suiza 12Z of 1800 hp like the Klimov clone made by Soviet Union powering the Yak-3 fighter - it would fill that niche and this was just the OTL development. An internal fueltank like in the Mustang would have provided even more range though as it would change the balance of the aircraft external drop-tanks could have been developed.
Well that would be an interesting twist. A French aircraft becoming the dominant long ranged high performance fighter of the great wars of the 1940's. |
|
