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Post by raharris1973 on Sept 25, 2023 23:31:51 GMT
From repeated discussions of medieval Russian history and 'no Mongol invasion' proposals I have heard a couple things from Russia mavens. #1 That even prior to the Mongol invasions, Kiev's days as the leader of the Rus Principalities were done, and their center of gravity was moving north toward Vladimir-Suzdal, the Duchy/Princedom from which the Moscow Grand Dukes and later Tsars rose. and #2 Invasions, weakening and destruction of southern and central Rus principalities did open up a vacuum which allowed the Lithuanian Grand Duchy to dominate a great many Rus cities and lands, and this domination of western Rus lands (Belarus, most of Ukraine, some of Russia) carried over to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. If the Mongols never coalesce into an all-conquering, or even major conquering Horde under Temujin or any similarly gifted leader, could their lack of invasion, ravaging, and tribute collection from the Rus lands from Genghis and Batu and Ogedei and continuing through the Golden Horde's preeminence, lasting roughly the 257 years from 1223-1480 CE, have opened up a Eurasian power vacuum that a Rus state, likely Vladimir-Suzdal, would have filled earlier, much like Muscovy did later on in OTL? Could the lack of devastation of western and southern Rus principalities by Mongol invaders have kept Lithuania from ballooning as big as it ever got across all Belarus and Ukraine? Might the Rus principalities in that area, due to cultural, religious and dynastic ties and affinities with a dynamically growing and strengthening Vladimir-Suzdal, have naturally fallen into the latter's political orbit in the late Medieval/Renaissance era, with perhaps only principalities on the western edge of the Rus lands, like Galich and Polotsk, under contested influences of powers to the west like Hungary, Poland, or Lithuania. Here is a link to the Eurasian map of 1200 AD: www.gifex.com/fullsize-en/2010-02-10-11748/Eurasia_in_1200.htmlWe see to the south and east of the Rus states the Cumans or Kipchak Khaganate, a tough opponent ruling the steppe. And, absent the Mongols, they would seem the logical people to continue ruling the steppe and harassing the Rus frontiers. But would they have the skills, vitality, and demographic power, without the Mongol flows and warmaking techniques to completely to take the historic place of the Mongols and Golden Horde for 250 plus years in keeping the Russians on the back foot and stymieing any eastward advances by the Russian peoples? Or would they start decaying and become vulnerable to Rus inroads toward the Black Sea, Caspian or Urals as we approach 1300 or 1400 ? If things go well for Vladimir-Suzdalian Russia, would it be unreasonable for a Russian state centered there to run from Moscow to Alaska by the year 1560 AD? Having reached Pacific shores through the forest belt in in the middle 1400s, breached the Urals barrier in the middle or late 1300s, and satellitized/incorporated the other Rus states outside of Vladimir-Suzdal by the mid-1400s? Why or why not? If established and reaching such an extent, what kind of future could such a massive Rurikid renaissance state have? |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Sept 26, 2023 0:40:18 GMT
Without the Mongol conquests, a Vladimir-Suzdal Rus' would have eventually tried their luck in expanding to the Volga River area, since the trade to Persia was also lucrative in its own right. However, you also have the Novgorod Republic in existence as well, and Galicia-Volhynia is also a major player in its own right. What can potentially happen is that Galicia-Volhynia expands into what is essentially OTL Belarus, Novgorod Republic tries its luck at expanding into Finland and Vladimir-Suzdal would be more likely to expand into the Cuman-Kipchak lands. However though, Novgorod would still be facing the same weakness as it did IOTL when it could not stand up to Muscovy.
Cuman-Kipchak entity would eventually face possible disintegration if they have a succession crisis unfolding. At the same time though, without the Mongols coalescing, the Khitans would simply replace the Mongols. In fact, one of the Khitans Khans could have easily defeated and killed Genghis Khan, but Genghis won in the end.
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Post by raharris1973 on Sept 27, 2023 3:55:30 GMT
Without the Mongol conquests, a Vladimir-Suzdal Rus' would have eventually tried their luck in expanding to the Volga River area, since the trade to Persia was also lucrative in its own right. However, you also have the Novgorod Republic in existence as well, and Galicia-Volhynia is also a major player in its own right. What can potentially happen is that Galicia-Volhynia expands into what is essentially OTL Belarus, Novgorod Republic tries its luck at expanding into Finland and Vladimir-Suzdal would be more likely to expand into the Cuman-Kipchak lands. However though, Novgorod would still be facing the same weakness as it did IOTL when it could not stand up to Muscovy. Cuman-Kipchak entity would eventually face possible disintegration if they have a succession crisis unfolding. At the same time though, without the Mongols coalescing, the Khitans would simply replace the Mongols. In fact, one of the Khitans Khans could have easily defeated and killed Genghis Khan, but Genghis won in the end. Well, I had the Rus principalities, centered around Vladimir-Suzdal, the same general area housing Moscow, coalescing and then eventually expanding to reach the 1815 borders of the Romanov Tsar-Emperors of Muscovite Russia, only sort of crudely having them accomplish this some 250 years early, so before 1600, and probably under some Rurikid rulers. Your specific suggestions do seem to go along with the idea of the Vladimir Rus breaking through the Cumans, and back through the steppe down the Volga to the Caspian much more quickly than the Muscovites were able to do against the opposition of the Mongols, Golden Horde, and Khanates of Astrakhan and Kazan finally in the late 1500s reign of Ivan IV 'The Terrible'. You suggest a separate Novgorodian axis of advance to the Baltic, by way of Finland that might succeed, but suggest Novgorodian weakness like OTL. So this means absorption by Vladimir by no later than the 1500s like OTL? But also the growth of Galicia-Volhynia to Belarus...from its west Ukrainian base....so perhaps mega-Galicia remains its own independent Rus, Rusyn, or Russian state, independent of Vladimir, that occupies a similar geographic footprint for many centuries that is similar to OTL's Grand Duchy of Lithuania? Is that your thinking, it is more likely to stay separate than unify? |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Sept 27, 2023 4:17:53 GMT
Without the Mongol conquests, a Vladimir-Suzdal Rus' would have eventually tried their luck in expanding to the Volga River area, since the trade to Persia was also lucrative in its own right. However, you also have the Novgorod Republic in existence as well, and Galicia-Volhynia is also a major player in its own right. What can potentially happen is that Galicia-Volhynia expands into what is essentially OTL Belarus, Novgorod Republic tries its luck at expanding into Finland and Vladimir-Suzdal would be more likely to expand into the Cuman-Kipchak lands. However though, Novgorod would still be facing the same weakness as it did IOTL when it could not stand up to Muscovy. Cuman-Kipchak entity would eventually face possible disintegration if they have a succession crisis unfolding. At the same time though, without the Mongols coalescing, the Khitans would simply replace the Mongols. In fact, one of the Khitans Khans could have easily defeated and killed Genghis Khan, but Genghis won in the end. Well, I had the Rus principalities, centered around Vladimir-Suzdal, the same general area housing Moscow, coalescing and then eventually expanding to reach the 1815 borders of the Romanov Tsar-Emperors of Muscovite Russia, only sort of crudely having them accomplish this some 250 years early, so before 1600, and probably under some Rurikid rulers. Your specific suggestions do seem to go along with the idea of the Vladimir Rus breaking through the Cumans, and back through the steppe down the Volga to the Caspian much more quickly than the Muscovites were able to do against the opposition of the Mongols, Golden Horde, and Khanates of Astrakhan and Kazan finally in the late 1500s reign of Ivan IV 'The Terrible'. You suggest a separate Novgorodian axis of advance to the Baltic, by way of Finland that might succeed, but suggest Novgorodian weakness like OTL. So this means absorption by Vladimir by no later than the 1500s like OTL? But also the growth of Galicia-Volhynia to Belarus...from its west Ukrainian base....so perhaps mega-Galicia remains its own independent Rus, Rusyn, or Russian state, independent of Vladimir, that occupies a similar geographic footprint for many centuries that is similar to OTL's Grand Duchy of Lithuania? Is that your thinking, it is more likely to stay separate than unify? It could depend on how exposed and divergent this Mega Galicia-Volhynia state would be, though if it came under direct Polish rule, you'd probably see that entity remain independent, but reach a compromise between Catholics and Orthodox. Vladimir-Suzdal could eventually absorb Novgorod through both direct and indirect means, but if it was direct, it wouldn't be as brutal as the OTL Muscovite conquest of Novgorod. The way I see it, the Vladimir-Suzdal conquest of the Cuman lands on the other hand, may involve absorbing a longer lasting Volga Bulgarian state that would be autonomous within Vladimir-Suzdal, followed by the eventual conquest of the rest of it. However, there might also be significant factors that we haven't gotten around to discuss, namely where will our Khitan Horde (Kuchlug absorbing Genghis Khan's soldiers would occur in a Mongol defeat), and which religion would the Cumans adopt. If Kuchlug does eventually go on a conquest spree, the Cumans adopting Islam would be a virtual death sentence, as Kuchlug didn't have a good track record when it came to Muslims. (Kuchlug came from a Nestorian Christian tribe, but his wife and father in law was a Buddhist) There could also be a possibility that Cumans may also end up adopting either Nestorianism or Buddhism as a means of appeasing the Khitans. What's left of the Cuman lands in the Pontic steppe would eventually fall, though with Cuman tribal leaders bending the knee and converting to Orthodox Christianity. I would suspect that this massive Vladimir-Suzdal state would eventually slow down their expansion for pragmatic reasons, the main reason being that they want to stabilize their conquests. Second, they would need to build lasting foundations within that expansive state, before going towards the rest of Siberia. Finally, we would have to guess as to how a Mega Vladimir-Suzdal state would interact with the Khitans. If they're going for a peaceful relationship with each other, then the Khitans could simply focus on conquering all of China and bits of SE Asia, while Vladimir-Suzdal would consolidate much of their territory, and Khwarezmian Empire would still survive a lot longer. |
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Post by Max Sinister on Sept 27, 2023 19:56:25 GMT
Sorry to toot my own horn, but the Chaos TL hopefully might answer some of your questions. About Kiev vs. Vladimir: Could be, but I expect that without the Mongols, Kiev will last longer. Also, without the Black Death, there's the question about German Ostsiedlung. If their population is still growing, where will they emigrate to? Pagan Lithuania might be their first victim, but then? In said Chaos TL, I had the Teutonic Order conquer the Russian princedom of Polozk first (because of course Orthodox Christians aren't the real kind of Christians...), and germanize it (Polozk -> Plotzeck); next is Turov-Pinsk (which becomes Thurau)... Realistic or Teutonic Order wank? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 27, 2023 23:36:59 GMT
The other question might be with either Kiev or Vladimir eastern expansion could be limited by other nomadic hordes, at least until the Russian state gets a clear technological and/or demographic lead. A Tamerlane type conqueror emerging from Central Asia could make a nasty mess of at least the steppe regions of either state and probably much along at least the middle Volga as well.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Sept 28, 2023 0:34:11 GMT
The other question might be with either Kiev or Vladimir eastern expansion could be limited by other nomadic hordes, at least until the Russian state gets a clear technological and/or demographic lead. A Tamerlane type conqueror emerging from Central Asia could make a nasty mess of at least the steppe regions of either state and probably much along at least the middle Volga as well. Certainly possible if there would be a Khitan equivalent of Tamerlane, though it would also depend on how and where the Khitans will expand. It may also depend on which religion would this alt-Tamerlane be raised in. That being said, I would suspect that a Mega Vladimir-Suzdal state would first consolidate control around the forested areas of what is essentially northern OTL Russia, followed by fortifying the areas along the Volga River and the Don River. Forests would be more helpful than the steppes, which is the factor that helped propel Muscovy into prominence in the first place. (Kiev is founded on a flat terrain). |
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