The 13 Colonies stay British (discussion)
Aug 23, 2024 14:43:40 GMT
Max Sinister and Carolus Orlandus like this
Post by stevep on Aug 23, 2024 14:43:40 GMT
The pro-slavery links will be stronger but so will anti-slavery ones as, as you yourself admit many people saw large numbers of slaves as determent to their interests.
That the 1st push for a ban on the slave trade occurred at the start of a period of reactionary swell in Britain due to the revolutionary events in France - which as we both agree won't be happening at the same time here - shows there was pressure for reform. Also without the revolutionary and Napoleonic wars of OTL and Napoleon's attempts to exclude British controlled goods there's far less incentive for the development of much improved sugar beet yields.
The sugar beets being less developed is a boon to the Slave-holding Caribbean plantations.
The crown supported the interests of the slave trade but any settlement of the conflict in the colonies is going to see some concessions on both sides so its ability to impose its will without risk is likely to be reduced.
If later wars happen, especially with Britain boosted by the wealthy N American colonies - doubly so if their able to apply some direct taxes to partially fund the latter's defence - then French is likely to see very heavy expenditure. Especially since with industrialization developing rapidly in Britain the latter is going to pull steadily ahead in economic capacity. Sooner or later there's going to be a serious debt crisis given the malfunctioning governmental system in France and more pressure for reform. It could fail, which would mean more repression and an even dire economic and fiscal situation in France. It could see modern political reform or as OTL it could go all the way to violent overthrow of the ancient regime as OTL. However there will be an economic and political crisis at some stage, probably within a couple of decades of OTL.
I don't think its very likely that an elite determined on repression will be driven from Britain and then find a secure home in N America. Britain already has substantial ability to constrain the monarchy established for some centuries and especially from 1688 and 1714 and it will also have growing middle class elements who also seen a need for reform. Violent revolution is still markedly more likely to occur in France which lacks any real restraint on the monarchy or the privileged elites of the clergy and aristocracy.
a) Some definitely did, hence Pennsylvania's restraints on slavery and Washington's nomadic movements as a result. Also as your arguing a large increase in the inflow of slaves to meet a new need would heighten the concerns about numbers as OTL. - A fair number of the original generation of US leaders decided to let the issue lie because they considered it a dying activity. It was the invention of the cotton gin and the availability of vast new areas in the southern states/colonies that prompted the vast increase in the inflow. The former is likely to occur sooner or later but the latter could be more constricted with continued British rule. - Both because protection of Indian lands and if Spain doesn't go for a new war with a markedly more powerful Britain and hence lose Louisiana. Also your arguing that the monopoly of the RAC will continue and that could also restrict numbers.
b) What reforms by the ancient regimes? There were military ones in response to the revolutionary and Napoleonic wars but your arguing that those won't occur here. Similarly there was some radical reforms in French controlled states or their allies but many of those were repudiated by the winners after 1814-15 and anyway won't occur here. Your likely to see the HRE continue as a haphazard tangle of hundreds of states, most very small but determined to maintain their independence and privileges with Prussia, the primary great power on the continent that saw social and economic reforms OTL staying a fossilized version of Frederick the Great's organization with further complications by very large numbers of Poles as a result of the partitions of that country. Without the ideas of the revolution nationalism will continue to be a relatively local and secondary characteristic across much of the continent and hence won't be a driver either.
c) Without the OTL costs from the war France will still have budget issues from the way the state is so badly Mal-administered and the next war is likely to cause a similar crisis. Food might or might not be as great an issue but the general corruption and incompetence are still going to be massive issues.
d) No we haven't. A continued British control of eastern N America is going to be tempered by the geographical distances and the strong characteristics and habits already in place in the colonies. Their not going to be pay full taxes as people in Britain itself will - that was never the intent. The main advantages for Britain of the continued possession of the colonies will be a bigger market for British goods and manpower locally in N America. The latter will be important in locations such as Louisiana and possibly neighbouring areas but the Americans aren't going to be sending thousands of troops to Britain so that an autocratic monarch can suppress Parliament and legal rights, especially since its obviously not in their interests. Their far more likely to object strongly to such actions and either make a new attempt to break away, probably with wider local support or to send resources, which could include money and men, to help Parliament suppress such a monarch.
The opportunity for an autocratic monarchy, baring very drastic changes, died its death in the 1640's. Charles II and then James II tried to regain more power but the two failed, the latter fatally for his crown. The resulting settlements in 1688 and 1714 further reduced monarch power as did the development of a thriving and broad economy which didn't exist in places like France. A very skilled monarch - which George III definitely wasn't in his early days - could possibly sit at the top of an unsteady pyramid for a while by playing off assorted factions and groups against each other but any move to restrict everybody's rights drastically is going to cause the vast majority of those factors to unite, against the monarch making such a proposal.
