stevep
Fleet admiral
Member is Online
Posts: 24,832 
Likes: 13,222
|
Post by stevep on Aug 25, 2023 15:16:45 GMT
Not sure whether the French revolution would occur on scheduled without the massive drain on resources due to prolonged French involvement in the revolt The French revolution will happen, it was combination of economic/finance Missmanagement, despotism of nobility, lack of interest by King on situation and famine, all this let to revolution of 1789. Kingdom of France was serious weaken from The Seven Years War (1756–1763) It lost territory in colonies to Britain, let to French colonial trade declined by 81% ! had large financial debt of 700 Millionen Livre or roughly 10 billion in today euros. France was insolvency for three years after that war. Étienne de Silhouette try as finance minister, to bring France out disaster, but nobility and church opposed to pay tax, So the King Louis XV replace him with others less competent men. unter King Louis XVI happen the American revolution, he put last reserve into this conflict to help them and hurt British...
I think its still likely to happen, unless there is serious reform which failed spectacularly as you point out OTL. However without the massive expenditure during the OTL conflict til 1783 its likely to be somewhat later. Furthermore a short but dramatic defeat as you describe could be a trigger for a more serious economic reform attempt. I don't think it would succeed but am reluctant to rule anything out.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Member is Online
Posts: 24,832
Likes: 13,222
|
Post by stevep on Aug 25, 2023 15:21:10 GMT
Do you know "For Want of a Nail"? Thank to you, i know now of that novel ! The following battles ended in defeat for the Continental Army, while Gates "retreat" alone on Horse over distance of 250 km ! This match, when British General John Burgoyne defeats American Generals Horatio Gates at the Battle of Saratoga in October 1777. depicted in Novel (in my senario general Benedict Arnold switch side and work for British) Odd is in Novel is state of Jefferson (Texas) i was thinking also to create a Texas as buffer state between Mexico and British empire. After British conquer Louisiana in Coalition wars. what let to quiet different outcome for Napoleon A Texas republic with more German, Belgium and Irish settler. Oh by the way, Belgium take Australia as colony instead British empire, who show little interest in this part in world here.
Fully agree that the existence of Jefferson and its strange history, becoming a super-power albeit one controlled by a shady mega-corporation by the end of the novel is the oddest element in the developments in the Americas.
Its possibly but unlikely that Britain will ignore Australia but assuming Leopold still emerges and becomes king of Belgium, a country that might well not exist and then makes it their colony seems unlikely to me.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Member is Online
Posts: 24,832
Likes: 13,222
|
Post by stevep on Aug 25, 2023 15:40:54 GMT
Talking of different histories in which the colonies stay with Britain has anyone read " The Two Georges" by Richard Dreyfuss and Harry Turtledove? Its rather weird with the basic idea being a meeting between George III and George Washington settling differences between Britain and the colonies and by the current day their one of the three super-powers with the others being a Bourbon union - dominated by French IIRC but controlling most of Latin America although the British/Americans have won Texas, California and other OTL territories in a war some time in the past and the continuing imperial Russia. technology is somewhat behind OTL with most flight being by airships - petrol engines not seeming to have been developed and ground vehicles are largely steam powered. Which for the British empire means the crucial importance of the Pennsylvania coal fields and heavy pollution in the region from the coal mining and use. Also somehow N America has much stricter gun controls with one of the characters lamenting that due to smuggling from Russian Alaska there could be as many as a dozen unregistered firearms in the California region. [Which given how freely guns were sold in Britain prior to ~1920 is frankly extremely unlikely].
The plot of the story is about a painting of the legendary meeting of the two Georges which has become very much an icon being stolen by American radicals who want independent - they exist but are a small minority - and the attempt to retrieve it prior a visit by King Charles III to N America. - It was written in 1996 so the authors assumed that Queen Elizabeth doesn't live as long but there are some character somehow appearing from OTL including a Martin Luther King who is not only still alive in the alternative 1996 but also Governor General of North America.
|
|
michelvan
Sub-lieutenant
Posts: 488
Likes: 804
|
Post by michelvan on Aug 25, 2023 16:25:39 GMT
Its possibly but unlikely that Britain will ignore Australia but assuming Leopold still emerges and becomes king of Belgium, a country that might well not exist and then makes it their colony seems unlikely to me. So far i understand British history, after they lost 13 colonies they focus afterwards on Australia. before 1780 was Australia more resupply harbour for Royal Navy and some outpost, they were even willig to share the continent with Dutch. how Belgium come in existence, depends how the Napoleonic war play out in this scenario. still we got the Dutch als alternative. One thing is sure, the outcome of Napoleonic war, let here to complete different Europa. |
|
michelvan
Sub-lieutenant
Posts: 488
Likes: 804
|
Post by michelvan on Aug 26, 2023 6:57:50 GMT
On Europa we have several options
The French revolution will happen, the kingdom was run down.
It's question what happen next ?
The rise of Napoleon will happen, the right guy, in right place, at right time.
But would remain this way, there events that could be fatal for him, like he perish with ship he escaped Egypt.
He would not take over French first republic
It would ironic if refugee Thomas Jefferson (survive the Robespierres terror), manage solve crisis by installing new french republic with him as first President...
but question if this French Republic survive the Coalition wars without genius of Napoleon ?
With Napoleon als french leader and General France has chance to survive longer,
because there is problem Louisiana, Napoleon sold it to USA for 80 million french franc
here is no USA and Britain Empire simply can invade Louisiana.
This cause problem that France is almost bankrupt after fourth Coalition war.
Here Napoleon is force to go Diplomatic
This let to total different Europa
the French Empire with series of Buffer states at long it border, like Rheinbund or Italian states under Napoleon family control.
Prussia would remain neutral, never become the future military power of Europe ?
Napoleon is unable to intervene military in dispute between King Carlos IV and prince Fernando, do lack of money.
Now would British Empire push the French into fifth Coalition war to bankrupt them ?
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Member is Online
Posts: 24,832
Likes: 13,222
|
Post by stevep on Aug 26, 2023 10:44:51 GMT
On Europa we have several options The French revolution will happen, the kingdom was run down. It's question what happen next ? The rise of Napoleon will happen, the right guy, in right place, at right time. But would remain this way, there events that could be fatal for him, like he perish with ship he escaped Egypt. He would not take over French first republic It would ironic if refugee Thomas Jefferson (survive the Robespierres terror), manage solve crisis by installing new french republic with him as first President... but question if this French Republic survive the Coalition wars without genius of Napoleon ? With Napoleon als french leader and General France has chance to survive longer, because there is problem Louisiana, Napoleon sold it to USA for 80 million french franc here is no USA and Britain Empire simply can invade Louisiana. This cause problem that France is almost bankrupt after fourth Coalition war. Here Napoleon is force to go Diplomatic This let to total different Europa the French Empire with series of Buffer states at long it border, like Rheinbund or Italian states under Napoleon family control. Prussia would remain neutral, never become the future military power of Europe ? Napoleon is unable to intervene military in dispute between King Carlos IV and prince Fernando, do lack of money. Now would British Empire push the French into fifth Coalition war to bankrupt them ?
The French Republic seems to have steadily degenerated in the late 1790's so some sort of military leader - possibly with a consul period as OTL - taking charge but as you say it won't necessarily be Napoleon. There were a number of times he could have died in combat or simply from some other action - illness, accident, being caught by an enraged husband/father etc. Or simply another general takes power 1st and he either becomes a subordinate marshal or gets purged.
There were a lot of talented generals in the Revolutionary period so some sort of reformed republic or an alternative empire could be formed and reasonably successful but a lot would depend on the circumstances involved. A lasting peace from a Amiens type agreement might be longer lasting with a different French ruler - whether consul for life/dictator or king/emperor - especially possibly if Britain, operating from its American colonies had already secured Louisiana and possibly even ensured the collapse of French power in the Caribbean, which would have reduced British concerns about French actions and intent. Also with a larger colonial basis providing merchants and other wealth and resources - including no doubt some manpower - Britain would feel more secure. This might be enough to mean it wasn't massively worried by French domination of the low countries and the west bank of the Rhine say.
However war could still be quite possible at some stage depending on how the new French state acts and the rest of Europe responds to it. Especially if its still even only formally, a republic as that would cause tension with the bulk of its conservative neighbours. So much would depend on the circumstances. You might even still get Napoleon as ruler but because of some butterflies he's less obsessed with security by military conquest and willing to rule an enlarged French and puppets as the 1st among equals on the continent.
|
|
|
|
Post by diamondstorm on Sept 11, 2023 4:27:16 GMT
With regards to a French Revolution happening in a scenario where the American Revolution fails or averted, I think it’s still possible it occurs if there is still a worldwide Anglo-French War (especially if Britain intervenes in the Spanish-Portuguese War on the Portuguese side like they had hoped; it depends on when the American Revolution is defeated) and if there is still a Patriot Revolution or an analogue to it in the Netherlands. I would say yes because anti-monarchist sentiment had been building in the Netherlands for years and the Dutch had been helping smuggle tea, weapons, etc into America before and during the American Revolution. Hence, even though it might not take the same path as OTL, a French Revolution is still possible.
As for colonies, I don’t think the British would allow for unification of the Thirteen North American colonies into one large dominion since divide and conquer was the name of the game at the time for the Crown. More likely you see perhaps 3-5 smaller dominions split along geographic lines. I agree that the Southern colonies would continue to take the lions share of British convicts but I do think there would still be interest in exploring the area for resources like timber, hemp, and as a possible trading base in the Pacific. I can see Australia being colonized by multiple European powers rather than just Britain, who I think would start to send settlers over in the 1830s and 1840s which was the time they started colonizing New Zealand IOTL.
|
|
michelvan
Sub-lieutenant
Posts: 488
Likes: 804
|
Post by michelvan on Sept 14, 2023 19:45:58 GMT
I have still open questions about British rule of North America
it would be realistic the London transform the 13 Colonies into Dominion
As compromise between British Government and Colonist.
This could let to declaration of Kingdom of Canada
(It was proposed but Edward Henry Stanley, 15. Earl of Derby refused it, he not wanted any problem with US of A.)
But how would Britain deal with Louisiana ? make it a Territory, since it was mostly sparsely populated ?
The Case for Texas
If Mexico allow European settlers in there norther province
and those wanted become independent from Mexico, would British empire help them ?
in exchange they would gain a Buffer State between them and Mexico.
And would Russia try to sell Alaska to British Empire, its rival ?
it would have interesting outcome, if Russia can't sell Alaska !
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Member is Online
Posts: 24,832
Likes: 13,222
|
Post by stevep on Sept 14, 2023 20:47:09 GMT
I have still open questions about British rule of North America it would be realistic the London transform the 13 Colonies into Dominion As compromise between British Government and Colonist. This could let to declaration of Kingdom of Canada (It was proposed but Edward Henry Stanley, 15. Earl of Derby refused it, he not wanted any problem with US of A.) But how would Britain deal with Louisiana ? make it a Territory, since it was mostly sparsely populated ? The Case for Texas If Mexico allow European settlers in there norther province and those wanted become independent from Mexico, would British empire help them ? in exchange they would gain a Buffer State between them and Mexico. And would Russia try to sell Alaska to British Empire, its rival ? it would have interesting outcome, if Russia can't sell Alaska !
Some good points there. Initial thoughts: a) I suspect unless there was a later division between the colonies and homeland that one or more kingdoms would be established. Whether they would be directly shared with the British monarchy or possibly given to younger sons so the regions have their own monarchs after a period of time.
b) Assuming Britain takes over Louisiana, which seems likely sooner or later assuming it keeps the colonies because of the demographic and power imbalance, then its probably going to be one or more territories depending on how things have developed in the eastern colonies and how the region is settled.
c) Again with the initial assumption of Britain keeping the empire a lot would depend on how the Spanish empire ends? If its absorbed into a French empire - which I've seen in some suggests then it would depend on what happens in future wars. However assuming Britain gets Louisiana then Texas is distinctly vulnerable assuming Britain maintains naval dominance - which should be likely with colonial power added to the home territories. This would be whether its still part of a greater Bourbon empire or a fringe area of a Mexican successor state. If London is still technically in charge then it might be more reluctant than Washington was OTL to get into something like the 1864 war. If British settlers became dominant in Texas I would suspect that sooner or later it would end up joining the other kingdoms/dominions unless it shifted somewhat in culture or political identity.
d) If Britain is combined with most/all OTL US and Canada then Russia might not have much choice on the issue of Alaska. Either due to Britain being the only practical buyer or simply its a war gain. The region would be bloody difficult for Russia to maintain once Britain is established on the west coast of N America. You could possibly also have some equivalent of the Monroe Doctrine in that Britain/Colonies would insist they had the say in any transfer of territories in at least northern and central America between states.
Steve
|
|
michelvan
Sub-lieutenant
Posts: 488
Likes: 804
|
Post by michelvan on Sept 15, 2023 9:10:49 GMT
b) Assuming Britain takes over Louisiana, which seems likely sooner or later assuming it keeps the colonies because of the demographic and power imbalance, In this Senario French Revolution happens and Napoleon get Emperor Only problem he can't sell Louisiana, because there is no USA and British Empire send troop to occupy it (analog to war of 1812) What let for Napoleon serious finance problems later on. on Russia selling Alaska, here some background info: From 1853 to 1856 happen the Crimean War, were Russia expanded there territory (today Ukraine and Crimean) on Ottoman Empire. in this conflict the British and french declared war on Russia. in end lost Russia the Crimean War, it status as superpower and was almost bankrupt. The new Tsar Alexander II needed money and since Alaska became unprofitable do over hunting, why not selling it ? (note the Russian use Siberia and Alaska in that time period for fur production) In our time Russia sold Alaska to USA, what solve allot problems for Russia. But in this senario we have no USA only the British Empire with Kingdom of Canada and Dominion (and Territory of Louisiana) Would Russia sell Alaska to it Political rival ? There were other candidates! in 2015 the prince of Lichtenstein confirmed a rumor, that Russia proposed Alaska to them in 1867, but the Prince Johann II polite decline the offer. Belgium under Leopold I & II wanted despaired a colony, Leopold II even try acquire the Philippines. here it would quite interesting to see what happen if Belgium get Alaska and not the Congo in their fingers. If Belgium even exist in this senario, is yet another question. it could be there will be no Belgium in Europe in senario (i try to figure out a Europa were Napoleon has no money to fight further) There could be instead the united Netherlands or one of Napoleon proposed Buffer states and the dutch would show little interest in Alaska, too far away form Indonesia and focus on colonisation of west Australia under permission of British Empire |
|
michelvan
Sub-lieutenant
Posts: 488
Likes: 804
|
Post by michelvan on Mar 25, 2024 11:38:28 GMT
Found interest Video on Louis 16th demise
Like Louis decision to support Revolution in America in 1775.
Despite it drove France into state bankrupt.
Had he listen on his finance minister Jacques Turgot and Abandon the idea.
The American Revolution would ended in favour of Britain.
but it would not save Louis from the things to come...
although a surviving French monarchy would be fascinate topic.
Source:
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Member is Online
Posts: 24,832
Likes: 13,222
|
Post by stevep on Mar 25, 2024 13:48:43 GMT
Found interest Video on Louis 16th demise Like Louis decision to support Revolution in America in 1775. Despite it drove France into state bankrupt. Had he listen on his finance minister Jacques Turgot and Abandon the idea. The American Revolution would ended in favour of Britain. but it would not save Louis from the things to come... although a surviving French monarchy would be fascinate topic. Source:
Very interesting thanks. The best option would have been to not enter the US Revolution but there were other opportunities where Louis XVI could have avoided disaster. Any of which could have made for a considerably different world.
If France had avoided any aid to the rebels its likely, despite the very bad diplomatic mess Britain was making during this period, that Spain and the Netherlands wouldn't have done so either which would have both greatly weakened the rebels and relaxed pressure on Britain so the revolution is likely to fair but how things go from there depend on a lot of circumstances.
|
|
michelvan
Sub-lieutenant
Posts: 488
Likes: 804
|
Post by michelvan on Mar 25, 2024 16:00:36 GMT
The best option would have been to not enter the US Revolution but there were other opportunities where Louis XVI could have avoided disaster. Any of which could have made for a considerably different world. It would be quite different world: The Dominion of America, the Kingdom of Canada under British rule. France a Constitutional monarchy under House of Bourbon The Kingdom of Burgundy under Bavarian Wittenbachs, instead Austrian Netherlands and Belgium. Habsburg assimilate Bavaria. The Holy Roman Empire still exist, fragmented, were Prussia and Habsburg fight for domination. |
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Member is Online
Posts: 24,832
Likes: 13,222
|
Post by stevep on Mar 25, 2024 18:18:20 GMT
The best option would have been to not enter the US Revolution but there were other opportunities where Louis XVI could have avoided disaster. Any of which could have made for a considerably different world. It would be quite different world: The Dominion of America, the Kingdom of Canada under British rule. France a Constitutional monarchy under House of Bourbon The Kingdom of Burgundy under Bavarian Wittenbachs, instead Austrian Netherlands and Belgium. Habsburg assimilate Bavaria. The Holy Roman Empire still exist, fragmented, were Prussia and Habsburg fight for domination.
I suspect the initial idea would be for whatever American state to form being a kingdom as well as whatever happens in Canada. In fact with the colonies staying loyal I suspect its more likely to become a kingdom than Canada. Similarly because British settlers are going to go overwhelmingly to the former so Canada could well stay majority French speaking Catholic. In which there might be hostility at some point or another to staying in any British imperial system.
On the others France could become a constitutional monarchy or Louis or one of his successors really fouls things up. Or lacking the industrial base of some other counties - i.e. iron and coal France might get eclipsed and for some reason or another ending up with some totally system of government or at least a different dynasty.
Similarly with the other points a lot depends on what develops. Without the Napoleonic wars but with constitutional reform of some kind in France and Britain going to be massively changed by remaining in control - at least for a while - there are going to be some huge butterflies and especially possibly in Europe. What's going to happen with the partition of Poland not being changed fairly dramatically by the rise and fall of Napoleon and what happens with Russia growing to super-power status.
|
|
michelvan
Sub-lieutenant
Posts: 488
Likes: 804
|
Post by michelvan on Mar 25, 2024 21:31:02 GMT
I suspect the initial idea would be for whatever American state to form being a kingdom as well as whatever happens in Canada. In fact with the colonies staying loyal I suspect its more likely to become a kingdom than Canada. Similarly because British settlers are going to go overwhelmingly to the former so Canada could well stay majority French speaking Catholic. In which there might be hostility at some point or another to staying in any British imperial system. We had that discussion earlier, it more realistic that 13 colonies after failed revolution, will become a Dominion of Britain Its best compromise between Government in London and colonist. On the others France could become a constitutional monarchy or Louis or one of his successors really fouls things up. Or lacking the industrial base of some other counties - i.e. iron and coal France might get eclipsed and for some reason or another ending up with some totally system of government or at least a different dynasty. It sound paradox, but Louis XVI could become the People king, if he made the Estates General of 1789 into The National Constituent Assembly In order to deal with french Finance crisis. (more act of idiocy, as brilliant statesmanship) It could let to Revolte, but were the nobility goes against the King and People. But will this be game changer like French Revolution and rise of Napoleon ? Would be interesting if industrial revolution will happen in France or not, either as part of solution to finance crisis or delay ? Without the bloody revolution of 1789 and Napoleon rise to power, Europa will not get Reset and new kickstart, the Holy Roman Empire would still be there. Similarly with the other points a lot depends on what develops. Without the Napoleonic wars but with constitutional reform of some kind in France and Britain going to be massively changed by remaining in control - at least for a while - there are going to be some huge butterflies and especially possibly in Europe. What's going to happen with the partition of Poland not being changed fairly dramatically by the rise and fall of Napoleon and what happens with Russia growing to super-power status. Certainly Russia will rise to super power, but also there is Habsburger vs Prussia, France that recover from it crisis, Britain, Spain under new Management. I wonder how the french Enlightenment, will influence rest of Europe special that patchwork rug called the Holy Roman Empire... |
|
