Miscellaneous: 1900 (Alternate) History Thread

  I don't think the Germans were quite as exposed in 41 as 42 but if Stalin had concentrated his reserves in the region around Moscow it could have been far costlier for Army Group Centre.  Possibly not breaking it as completely as the victory around Stalingrad but it would really strain the Germans.  The down side might be if they make a significant salient which itself is vulnerable to a German counter attack in spring/summer of 42.

  I was actually thinking of if the Soviet counter strike was concentrated against AGC and pushed the Germans back more there. creating something of a salient.  [One side issue here is that with less forces going to the Leningrad front the city will at least suffered even worse deaths from bombardment and starvation and it possibly might even lead to the fall of the Leningrad pocket.  Similarly with the lack of support in the south Sevastopol might also fall.  Either/both of those could free up significant German forces for redeployment into the threatened central region towards the end of winter].  

  Then if an over-confident Stalin insists on early spring offensives as OTL and concentrations them in the centre again you could see a lot of the Soviet active forces concentrated in a somewhat exposed position and then badly mauled if not largely destroyed as the offensive runs out of steam and the Germans get a large encirclement and destroy the resulting pocket.  Possibly then since the bulk of the German forces have been drawn into the central region Hitler listens to his generals and agrees that the main effort would be against Moscow.  The fall of this - as the worst case scenario - wouldn't necessarily cause the collapse of the USSR but would cause serious problems.

  On the other hand of course if Stalin's gamble paid off you might see much of AGC destroyed during the winter or with such heavy casualties that the Germans can't even manage the OTL 42 offensives on anything like the same scale.  This would be even more likely if the Germans had had a bit more success in 41 in the centre and actually got into Moscow and become bogged down in urban fighting where a lot of their experience and firepower advantage would have been nullified, an option I had mentioned in the past. 

  War is virtually always a risky business and when the dice are rolled few can say with any certainty what what happen.

  I would guess it was seen, at least by Konoye as a suitable half way point between the two nations heartlands.

  I suspect given the differences between the two nations it wouldn't have made any real difference.  The US wanted the Japanese out of China - although there were some uncertainties about Manchuria - while its difficult to see the army agreeing to that and between their political position and the tendency for political assassinations in recent Japanese history I can't see a government agreeing to such a withdrawal or leading members reliably surviving attempting to do such.

  Interesting idea.  There wasn't one due until 1940 but he could do it.  Possibly because he wants to confirm that the country is anti-war and supports his policies to make the pact with Germany.  Ironically I think Labour was even more strongly pacifist than the Tories at this point and was also still weakened by the split in 1931 and the Liberals were divided so I think the Tories would win a clear and commanding majority.  

  Of course baring unlikely butterflies it all comes apart in March 39 when Germany occupies the rump Czech state and starts making demands on Poland.  At this point does Chamberlain do what he did OTL with speeding up rearmament and agreeing with France for a BEF and guarantees to Poland?  Or does he feel that such a total reversal after winning an election on the issue of appeasement is too big a change and either keeps up denial for a bit longer or possibly even decides that he has to resign?  Not quite sure when his health starts to decline but that might also be a factor here, especially if his doctors don't keep the fact its cancer a secret from him.

  Well given the s**tstorm that would be likely after the occupation of rump Bohemia I think someone more supportive to rearmament is likely to be selected by the Tories and for all his issues and past errors Churchill would be a big candidate.  Assuming war comes roughly as OTL I don't know how things would change.  [One thing is that Churchill is unlikely to form the MoD in peacetime and also give himself the role so you could avoid the loss of Courageous.

Better than IOTL. German isn't tainted as the language of the Nazis, very probably no state of Israel...

  Whether Israel is formed or not would still be uncertain.  Without the Holocaust you would still have the bulk of the OTL 1947 Jewish settlement in Palestine and the hostility of the Arabs to any Jewish state.  Your still likely to have a lot of discrimination, not just in eastern Europe either and hence if an Israeli state emerges there are a lot more Jews that might want to emigrate to it and Israel is likely to welcome as many as it could get.

  Without the Holocaust you wouldn't have the same sympathy for the Jews in the west, although assuming you still get the Nazis rising to power and some sort of WWII as OTL - without which so much would be so greatly changed - your likely to have an increased level of persecution.  Such a lower level of sympathy could work at least two ways.  I.e. less support for an Israeli state or possibly more in some areas, such as the US and parts of western Europe because for a "we don't want them here, send them to Palestine" factor.  Britain might oppose this as it wants stability in Palestine and hence sought to restrict Jewish settlement there but if WWII has gone roughly as OTL Britain is very much a spent power and to anyone but an idiot the empire is going plus also the US, at least until it realised how hostile the Soviet were were eager to dismantle the British empire.  As such I would see events in Palestine going similar to OTL with Britain being pressurised to move to a UN mandate and then go and a resulting religious war.  If Israel survives that initial stage then many players could see it as the obvious dumping ground for unwanted Jews and markedly largely Jewish settlement developing.