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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 24, 2023 17:41:36 GMT
This I read when researching Gibraltar in WW2: Before the war, some British politicians had thought: Gibraltar is small, and most of it consists of the famous rock. So it'd be impossible to build bigger fortifications, harbors, etc. OTOH, Ceuta at the opposite side of the Med, had no big rock in the way. So they considered swapping Gibraltar for Ceuta.
If this had happened, Spain would have kept Gibraltar...
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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Jun 26, 2023 12:53:34 GMT
WI: Winter War takes place in summer.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 26, 2023 15:13:42 GMT
WI: Winter War takes place in summer.
Difficult without major alterations to the wider war. Summer 40 means war before Germany attacks Poland or there is a Nazi-Soviet pact so it could changes political decisions in Berlin, Warsaw, Paris and London. Summer 41 means that the Soviets have significant forces tied up in Finland when the s**t hits the fan in the south.
Possibly if the German attack on France failed and there is an attritional war in the west going into summer 41 then Stalin could wait until that date before attacking Finland. However this assumes that he realises how weak the Red Army is and unprepared for war in winter in the north, which seems rather unlikely given his general mindset.
If they did however then better weather makes it easier for the Soviets to use their massively superior numbers, even if the quality is still appalling. Plus it makes it easier for the Soviet airforce to use its own massive numbers. As such I would expect, while losses would be heavy the Soviets would do better in the initial stages of the campaign. This could mean larger actual Soviet losses overall because Stalin continues the war until he has conquered Finland and imposed a puppet government, or possibly even converted it into another SSR inside the USSR itself.
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575
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Post by 575 on Jun 26, 2023 15:25:23 GMT
Summer War begins end August 1939 following Molotov-Ribbentrop deal 23 August. The Wallies would be really alarmed with a shooting war in Scandinavia and then come 1 September and Germany invade Poland.
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575
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Post by 575 on Jun 26, 2023 16:12:35 GMT
WI: Winter War takes place in summer.
Difficult without major alterations to the wider war. Summer 40 means war before Germany attacks Poland or there is a Nazi-Soviet pact so it could changes political decisions in Berlin, Warsaw, Paris and London. Summer 41 means that the Soviets have significant forces tied up in Finland when the s**t hits the fan in the south.
Possibly if the German attack on France failed and there is an attritional war in the west going into summer 41 then Stalin could wait until that date before attacking Finland. However this assumes that he realises how weak the Red Army is and unprepared for war in winter in the north, which seems rather unlikely given his general mindset.
If they did however then better weather makes it easier for the Soviets to use their massively superior numbers, even if the quality is still appalling. Plus it makes it easier for the Soviet airforce to use its own massive numbers. As such I would expect, while losses would be heavy the Soviets would do better in the initial stages of the campaign. This could mean larger actual Soviet losses overall because Stalin continues the war until he has conquered Finland and imposed a puppet government, or possibly even converted it into another SSR inside the USSR itself.
Generally agree though the Germans during Summer in Northern Finland did as badly as the Soviets during Winter. Also them forest's have lots of wetlands - Land of 1000 Lakes remeber - and Tanks don't move well in swampy dense forest. Ardennes come to mind. Think the Soviets may be close to unstoppable on the southern coast with Helsinki falling but if the Finn's fall back into the dense forest's Stalin may set up a Commy Republic and the Finns will grit their teeth and mumble - we'll wait for Winter.. Soviet VDV may have superior numbers but didn't help much during the Winter War or Continuation War. Them Finn's pilots like a lot of other small western nation pilots were very well trained in contrast to the Soviet opposition. Finn's, Dutch, Poles, Czech's, Danes, Norwegians.. Just didn't have the numbers but still quality.
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 26, 2023 16:18:06 GMT
Summer War begins end August 1939 following Molotov-Ribbentrop deal 23 August. The Wallies would be really alarmed with a shooting war in Scandinavia and then come 1 September and Germany invade Poland. It becomes much entangled with both the Germans and British faced with "pick a side". Finland and Norway as a single strategic package have to be considered. The UK government (Churchill), who never could resist a wrong strategy to choose in WWII or a military operation to bungle in that war, might move against Norway earlier. See MAPs. Industria sueca de mineral de hierro durante la Segunda Guerra MundialTranslated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
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575
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Post by 575 on Jun 26, 2023 17:14:00 GMT
I actually expected something like this - the Allies will be much more pressed for "doing something" at least in their own view. Luleå is icebound during Winter. There is not yet the heavy railroad down the Swedish interior to Ystad so if not Narvik available during Winter it will be Oxelösund port from which iron ore will be shipped. With Nazi-Germany and Sovietunion allied it will be more than difficult to operate in the Baltic. Without the lull of the phoney war i.e. war going on in Scandinavia and Eastern Europe the Wallies will be bound to do something. On the other hand the Germans are not ready for Weserübung yet and will have to come up with something soon;
Kriegsmarine 1939: 2 pre-Dreadnought S-H, Schlesien, 2 BC Scharnhorst, Gneisenau, 3 Heavy Cruisers/Raiders/Pocket Battleships Deutschland, Adm. Scheer, Adm. Graf Spee, 1 Heavy Cruiser Adm. Hipper, 6 Light Cruiser Emden, Königsberg, Karlsruhe, Köln, Leipzig, Nürnberg, 21 Type 34, 34A, 36 Destroyers, 12 old Torpedoboats/Destroyers, 5 Minelayers, (46) Minesweepers, 40? Raumboote/Minesweepers, 30+ S-boats/E-Boats, 2 Training Submarines, 30 Coastal Submarines, 19 Type VIIA and VIIB Submarines, 2 Artillery Training Ships, 10? F-class Escort Ships, Tenders, Auxillaries, Gunboats.
And then Khalkin-Gol Battle etc.
Expect lots of stress on both sides.
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 26, 2023 17:40:23 GMT
I actually expected something like this - the Allies will be much more pressed for "doing something" at least in their own view. Luleå is icebound during Winter. There is not yet the heavy railroad down the Swedish interior to Ystad so if not Narvik available during Winter it will be Oxelösund port from which iron ore will be shipped. With Nazi-Germany and Sovietunion allied, it will be more than difficult to operate in the Baltic. Without the lull of the phoney war, i.e. war going on in Scandinavia and Eastern Europe, the Wallies will be bound to do something. On the other hand, the Germans are not ready for Weserübung yet and will have to come up with something soon; Kriegsmarine 1939: 2 pre-Dreadnought S-H, Schlesien, 2 BC Scharnhorst, Gneisenau, 3 Heavy Cruisers/Raiders/Pocket Battleships Deutschland, Adm. Scheer, Adm. Graf Spee, 1 Heavy Cruiser Adm. Hipper, 6 Light Cruiser Emden, Königsberg, Karlsruhe, Köln, Leipzig, Nürnberg, 21 Type 34, 34A, 36 Destroyers, 12 old Torpedoboats/Destroyers, 5 Minelayers, (46) Minesweepers, 40? Raumboote/Minesweepers, 30+ S-boats/E-Boats, 2 Training Submarines, 30 Coastal Submarines, 19 Type VIIA and VIIB Submarines, 2 Artillery Training Ships, 10? F-class Escort Ships, Tenders, Auxiliaries, Gunboats. And then Khalkin-Gol Battle etc. Expect lots of stress on both sides. Nobody, except the Japanese and they have only a couple of regiments for it for Manchuria, maintain the proper equipment for a Norway campaign. The only smart move is to mine the North Sea traffic route, which Churchill as First Sea Lord and the RN bungled, and for the Wallies to hurry up during the Phony War to fix things in France. This could form a case study for the British navy in the Alternate Washington Naval Treaty thread. They really should have stood up an expeditionary brigade for just this kind of predictable situation.
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575
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Post by 575 on Jun 26, 2023 17:59:07 GMT
Interestingly the RAF and Armé de l'Air sat on their hands out of fear of retaliation while the Germans and Danes was certain that the Douhet uttering "the Bomber will always get through" was false as historian, former RDAF Major Paul Ancher showed in his thesis of 1997: De danske militære flyverstyrkers udvikling 1910-47
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 26, 2023 18:12:42 GMT
Interestingly the RAF and Armé de l'Air sat on their hands out of fear of retaliation while the Germans and Danes was certain that the Douhet uttering "the Bomber will always get through" was false as historian, former RDAF Major Paul Ancher showed in his thesis of 1997: De danske militære flyverstyrkers udvikling 1910-47 1. Why did the British build up Fighter Command 1935-1940 if they believed that? Radar. 2. The French AdA was over-politicized. Like much else that was French in the late 1930s, the French military were just 1 year behind in the correct solutions to their problems.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 27, 2023 13:15:53 GMT
Summer War begins end August 1939 following Molotov-Ribbentrop deal 23 August. The Wallies would be really alarmed with a shooting war in Scandinavia and then come 1 September and Germany invade Poland.
That's a possibility but its still tight on time before winter comes and as you say its not just the cold weather as the terrain is also an issue, along with motivation.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 27, 2023 13:26:37 GMT
Interestingly the RAF and Armé de l'Air sat on their hands out of fear of retaliation while the Germans and Danes was certain that the Douhet uttering "the Bomber will always get through" was false as historian, former RDAF Major Paul Ancher showed in his thesis of 1997: De danske militære flyverstyrkers udvikling 1910-47
That's on of the great problems with the foundation of the RAF in 1918. Not only did it cripple naval aviation but the new service looking for an 'independent' role quickly picked on bombing and as the attention turned from colonial operations against bandits to a possible great war in Europe this took on ever increasing and costly scope in terms of large strategic bombers. Which drained resources from and support for working with the other services.
There was some degree of truth in the 'bomber will always get through' maxim before the development of radar and in the UK and then Germany a co-ordinated air defence system. Coupled with also the fear of widespread gas warfare which could have been devastating. Plus also there was in the west a desire to avoid total war and widespread civilian casualties which could cause a similar collapse of societies as was seen across much of central and eastern Europe after WWI.
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 29, 2023 8:23:59 GMT
A diplomatic WI: Churchill wrote that he had considered Lloyd George as new ambassador in DC after Lord Lothian died. Which surprised me, after Lloyd George had said something positive about the "führer" earlier. Is there a trick involved?
The more interesting repercussions would be of course: Halifax stays British Foreign Minister, and Eden... not.
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Post by stevep on Jun 29, 2023 20:24:36 GMT
A diplomatic WI: Churchill wrote that he had considered Lloyd George as new ambassador in DC after Lord Lothian died. Which surprised me, after Lloyd George had said something positive about the "führer" earlier. Is there a trick involved? The more interesting repercussions would be of course: Halifax stays British Foreign Minister, and Eden... not.
I think the issue would be that IIRC Lloyd George said those before the war actually started and with the horrors of WWI in mind. Did he still have such a stance once Hitler had forced war? I suspect not but don't know.
Checking the wiki entry for him the relevant sections seem to be.
It sounds like many others he was fooled by Hitler and believed war could be avoid.
and
He does seem to have been very pessimistic about Britain's chances of continuing the war against Nazi Germany. Possibly Petain was a good example as he seemed to think that continuing the war was not in the countries interests. There are arguments in support of such an idea of course but a lot would depend on the terms of any peace and what happened later on - especially in the USSR when attacked and in the Far East.
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mspence
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Post by mspence on Jul 2, 2023 9:10:14 GMT
So here's one that I don't think has been explored much-WI Lyndon Johnson had won the Democratic nomination and possibly the election in 1960?
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