Yel Gods! Even for a somewhat deranged military dictator Tadiar is turning into a total nut case and a worse disaster for the Philippines than Marcos. I would say
That was one of the reasons why the Philippine economy suffered between 1995 and 1997, but luckily, we did not come close to a depression, or Tadiar would have been overthrown in 1998 instead of resigning in May 9, 2016.
that should be unlucky for the Philippines as it would have seen his removal a couple of decades earlier. Not surprised now that Reagan's involvement in the overthrown of the Aquino government was seen as worse than the Iran-Contra scandal.
I can't really see Vietnam having a pre-communist government 'restored' especially since it never ruled the north and would have been put in place in large parts by China by the sound of it. Mind you surprised that, unless they had a lot of external support Vietnam lasted so long against China. Can see them winning a short war as they did in 1979 I think it was but a multi-year one where China's greater numbers and resources can wear them down seems unlikely. Or have I totally misunderstood?
Post by TheRomanSlayer on Dec 28, 2020 14:23:16 GMT
I will probably address the Second Sino-Vietnamese War at a different update or a retcon, but the border clashes did not end until 1991. That is also including the 1988 seizure of Paracel Islands as well, though in most likely scenario a Chinese controlled “North Vietnam” might also emerge as a rump puppet state controlled by whatever is left of the Vietnamese communist government. Also, while China can win in a short term conflict, there is also a historical precedent in the Sino-Vietnamese conflicts of earlier years where they actually lost. Vietnam is a tough place for even superpowers to win in, after all. The 1979 OTL Sino-Vietnamese War lasted only three weeks, and it was a disputed victory. At the same time, Vietnam didn't end their occupation of Cambodia until 1989.
Also, the Second war between China and Vietnam was the result of a false flag attack. However, if it was the Green Shirts disguising themselves as Vietnamese troops, then Vietnam would be seen as the aggressors. If on the other hand, the Green Shirts disguised themselves as PLA troops, then that might be different. Basically after 1995, Tadiar is looking to bleed the Chinese in multiple directions.
However, there was the OTL FULRO insurgency in Vietnam between the Vietnamese communist government and the United Front for the Liberation of Oppressed Races, or FULRO/Front uni de lutte des races opprimées until 1992, so I could also tie that in at a future update.
(Note: the retcon is now done, and instead of a Second Sino-Vietnamese War, we now have Tadiargate 2.0, now involving the Vietnamese government-in-exile)
By the way, how would the Philippine Army be equipped in this alternate timeline?
It might be equipped with different weapons, and as the updates will show, we will definitely see a more active role by Armscor. As I posted in a previous update, there is an arms embargo on the Philippines, resulting in more farmers resorting to illegal gun making. (OTL they only produced illegal handguns)
Post by TheRomanSlayer on Dec 30, 2020 5:34:14 GMT
Chapter Fourteen: The New Three Kingdoms
15th STRIKE WING CARRIES OUT AERIAL BOMBING OF PALAWAN, PRO-TADIAR FORCES REPULSED BY AQUINO-ALIGNED FORCES IN CALAMIAN ISLANDS, PRO-VER FORCES REPULSED IN NORTHERN SAMAR Manila Post June 13, 1987
Busuanga Island, CALAMIAN ISLANDS – Despite the aerial bombardment carried out by the 15th Strike Wing Squadron on Palawan Island, three Philippine Marine Corps regiments aligned with Brigadier General Artemio Tadiar suffered significant casualties in their attempt to capture the Calamian Islands, as forces aligned with President Corazon Aquino managed to repel their attempt to capture the islands. Though small, the Calamian Islands is seen as a crucial, strategic point by all sides of the civil war. The 16th Attack Squadron, based in Antonio Bautista Airfield since Sangley Point Air Base is currently under the control of forces loyal to restored dictator Ferdinand Marcos and new Vice President Fabian Ver, played a crucial role in strafing and bombing the landing craft carrying the pro-Tadiar Marine Corps troops and the naval vessels supporting the bombardment of nearby Coron Island. Despite the defeat, the pro-Tadiar troops remained confident in their mission, while pro-Aquino troops boosted their sagging morale. However, the pro-Tadiar forces made up for their defeat in the Calamian Islands offensive by repulsing a surprise attempt by pro-Ver forces to capture the town of Allen, Northern Samar.
The failed attempt by pro-Ver forces was a large gamble for him, since his forces had to leave by San Andres, Quezon instead of continuing to push towards the Bicol region, as suggested by other pro-Ver officers. The Bicol Region remains in the hands of the pro-Aquino forces as well, and in fact, one of the transport planes that was supposed to land in Sorsogon City from the US, had made an emergency landing in Catarman, Northern Samar instead, where pro-Tadiar forces ‘confiscated’ the military supplies earmarked for the pro-Aquino forces one week prior to the failed Calamian Islands Offensive. However, the arrival of an additional 10 M41 Walker Bulldog tanks had successfully landed in Legazpi City’s domestic airport. The acquisition of the Walker Bulldog tanks was a much-needed relief for the pro-Aquino forces, which struggled to keep it forces intact from the tank offensive launched by pro-Ver forces. Moreover, Colonel Gregorio Honasan, the de facto leader of the pro-Aquino forces, had reorganized his army and prepared itself for the incoming attack by either the pro-Marcos/Ver forces or the pro-Tadiar forces.
NEGOTIATIONS BEGUN BETWEEN PRO-TADIAR FORCES AND MORO SECESSIONIST FORCES ON STATUS OF AUTONOMOUS REGION OF MUSLIM MINDANAO Manila Post July 29, 1987
Tubod, LANAO DEL NORTE – Both the pro-Tadiar forces and the Moro secessionist rebels have begun negotiations for a possible ceasefire between the two forces as the former is offering to cede the province of Sultan Kudarat to the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao in exchange for Lanao Del Sur. Though both the Moro National Liberation Front and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front were open to the deal made by Tadiar, the latter has rejected it due to the option of independence not being offered on the table. The MNLF on the other hand, has thought about accepting the offer, though Tadiar also proposed an exchange of populations, with the Christian population residing in Sultan Kudarat relocating to Lanao Del Sur, and the Muslim population of Lanao Del Sur relocating to Sultan Kudarat province.
“The offer by Brigadier General Artemio Tadiar is appealing, although officially he has no authority to conduct negotiations with us. The main job of negotiating with us falls on President Corazon Aquino, but now she is unable to send an envoy to negotiate on her behalf,” said Nur Misuari, the official leader of the MNLF. “However, we appreciate the offer made by Brigadier General Tadiar in an attempt to create a lasting peace between the Philippine government and the Moro revolutionary movement.”
In addition, the pro-Tadiar leadership also offered Misuari a role in the ambitious federalization project that Tadiar himself is proposing for the entire country, with the additional proposal for turning over the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao to a newly devolved governing body that will administer the autonomous province. The final approval will only take place when the civil war in the Philippines end and when Misuari’s MNLF will have its final say. However, there is no mention as to what will happen with the New People’s Army, as Tadiar did not say what he will do to them. On the positive side, the ceasefire between the Moro secessionist rebels and the pro-Tadiar forces would allow Tadiar to free up his troops for further offensives against the New People’s Army, while the rest of the Philippine Navy and Air Force will be reinforced by extra warships and CAS aircraft. However, Tadiar’s negotiations with the Moro secessionist rebels had aroused criticism from both the pro-Aquino and pro-Marcos/Ver camps.
“Mr. Tadiar, whatever his rank is, has no authority in negotiating with known terrorists. Whatever he has negotiated with these terrorists, is not valid under Philippine law. I for one, am appalled to see him go behind the back of the legitimate government to negotiate with them,” Fabian Ver said during a political rally in Plaridel, Bulacan, attended by a few Marcos loyalists who came out in the open.
Equally furious with Tadiar’s negotiation with the Moro secessionist rebels was the Aquino administration, which threatened to once again, arrest not only Tadiar, but Majors Edgardo Doromal and Saulito Aromin.
“Our government does not negotiate with terrorists, but apparently Colonel Tadiar has decided to circumvent my authority in talking to them. His offer is considered invalid under our current law,” says President Aquino when asked about the possible ceasefire order, while not recognizing the unofficial promotion of Tadiar to Brigadier General. “However, I do not recognize Fabian Ver’s demotion of Colonel Tadiar to Lieutenant on the grounds that his demotion was not recognized by my administration, and the demotion happened only after Marcos was deposed.”
PHILIPPINE CIVIL WAR COMBATANTS
1) Legitimate Government of the Republic of the Philippines: Officially the legally recognized Government of the Republic of the Philippines, this faction is dominated by the legitimately elected Presidency of Corazon Aquino. Unofficially called the “Yellows”, after the yellow ribbon carried by pro-Aquino protesters, the Aquino government has struggled in its struggle against both forces loyal to either the restored Presidency of former President Ferdinand Marcos or his self-declared Acting Vice President (though rumored to be the real puppet master) Fabian Ver. Their advantage lies not only with their diplomatic support of the international community, but the many supporters of the new President who protested the former dictatorship. However, their alliance with the leftists have been shattered because of Tadiar’s order to assassinate Jose Maria Sison, the former leader of the Communist Party of the Philippines.
2) True Government of the Republic of the Philippines: The self-declared “Restored” government of the Republic of the Philippines, this faction is dominated by supporters of former President Ferdinand Marcos (although he is at most a figurehead, as his current health prevents him from exercising his authority) and the self-declared Acting Vice President Fabian Ver, the “Restored” government challenged the election results of the 1986 Philippine presidential election. Although not as popular as the Aquino government, the “Restored” government has taken control of a good portion of Luzon, but lost Samar and Leyte to the forces led by renegade mastermind of the EDSA Massacre, Artemio Tadiar. Their unofficial color is light blue, in reference to the earlier shade of blue they used in the Philippine flag before Marcos’s downfall.
3) Council for National Sovereignty: The emerging military junta led by former Marcos loyalist turned renegade mastermind of the EDSA Massacre, Artemio Tadiar, this faction controls 80% of the Philippine Marines, 35% of the Philippine Army, 78% of the Philippine Air Force, and 57% of the Philippine Navy. Its advantage comes from its control of the entire Visayan Islands region, and three quarters of Mindanao, while the only inter-entity border in the Philippines that they have is with the Moro secessionist rebels. Moreover, the pro-Tadiar forces have no border with either the pro-Aquino faction or the pro-Marcos/Ver faction. However, they have no presence in Luzon, as their only stronghold in Nueva Ecija fell to General Ver’s forces during the early stages of the Philippine Civil War, with the death of Marcelo Blando. They are unofficially called the “Blacks”, referencing the black armbands they used in peace time, but their adopted flag is the red-blue-black tricolor, like the flag used by Gregorio Del Pilar. They are also the only faction that is the most battle hardened, as they have used the time given to them by the conflict between the pro-Marcos/Ver and pro/Aquino forces to fight the Moro secessionist rebels and the New People’s Army.
BLITZKRIEG! PRO-MARCOS/VER FORCES LAUNCH DEVASTATING OFFENSIVE AGAINST PRO-AQUINO FORCES IN BICOL, BULACAN AND BATAAN Manila Post September 21, 1987
Meycauayan, BULACAN – Backed by artillery pieces and other heavy weapons, forces loyal to General Ver and former President Ferdinand Marcos launched a three-pronged attack on pro-Aquino positions in Bicol, Bulacan and Bataan. Codenamed “Miranda”, after the Plaza Miranda bombing attack that led to Marcos’s declaration of Martial Law (it is also the 15th Anniversary its declaration as well), the offensive caught the pro-Aquino forces by surprise, after two months of constant skirmishes and guerrilla-style attacks inflicted on them. Several army divisions under Ver’s command had taken the town of Meycauayan and other border towns at the NCR-Bulacan provincial border, while pro-Aquino forces led by Gregorio Honasan managed to repel the initial attack made by Ver on the town of Del Gallego, before being forced to pull back to the town of Sipocot. On the other hand, other pro-Aquino forces have been pummelled by airstrikes carried out by the 16th Attack Squadron of the Philippine Air Force loyal to General Ver, targeting key positions in Tarlac City, Tarlac and Dagupan, Pangasinan. Pro-Ver forces, however, were careful not to hit any US military installations in the country by accident, despite its supposed neutrality in the conflict.
“The constant skirmishes have proven to be a devastating blow for us, because we were weakened by General Ver’s small scale attacks on our position. At the same time though, he is careful not to provoke Tadiar into attacking him, even though the only time Tadiar lost a battle was in the Calamian Islands, which we held,” Colonel Honasan said after being debriefed on their retreat from the front line. “Unfortunately, our tanks were placed at the wrong place, as we thought we could retake Nueva Ecija from the pro-Ver forces, but we miscalculated.”
The remaining naval units under Ver’s command took part in the assault on Corregidor Island and captured it in a three-hour battle that saw much of the pro-Aquino forces sustain severe casualties before being forced to withdraw to Mariveles. Bataan. However, a mutiny broke out within three vessels under the operational command of Naval Forces Southern Luzon where the crew from the three vessels, the BRP Rajah Lakandula, BRP Andres Bonifacio and BRP Diego Silang, detained their senior officers for their pro-Ver loyalties while the junior officers (suspected of being double agents) had declared their loyalty to Brigadier General Artemio Tadiar. The mutiny occurred during the naval component of the offensive, had taken a wrong turn towards Marinduque Island, the only island in the Luzon region held by pro-Tadiar forces, and were also captured by naval units under Tadiar’s command. Within six hours of the start of Operation: Miranda, the pro-Marcos/Ver forces managed to capture 376 pro-Aquino soldiers and killed over 174 of them. Meanwhile, with the three vessels defecting from the pro-Marcos/Ver forces to the pro-Tadiar forces, the momentum of the civil war had been slightly leaning towards the latter, while the pro-Aquino forces are suffering additional casualties as a result of the devastating offensive in the Bicol region.
“I could have advised Mr. Marcos to cut clean and to leave the country. I could have also advised him on many other things, but that advice went out of the window the moment one of his military officers had killed the protesters. Even if the civilians tried to come closer, they were unarmed, for Christ’s sakes! Now we have that very same madman fighting a civil war against both the new President and the asshole who brought Mr. Marcos back from his captivity, at the same time! And now, we find out that another American president has decided to make the same mistake as Nixon did with Pinochet in Chile in 1973 and threw his lot with Brigadier General Tadiar! Even worse, it is the same President whom I once considered as a friend, until Iran-Contra and Tadiargate had sunk the presidential aspirations of former Vice President Bush. Now I am disgusted with how Ronald and George could have sunk so low as to pull a Nixon. In the Philippines, nonetheless! And we taught the Filipinos the values of the American democratic system! How could we fall so low as to go back on those principles! After this upcoming election, I am going to back Bob Dole in his path to the presidency. And then, I will retire from politics for good.” Paul Laxalt, from “From Marcos to Tadiar: A Half-Century of Democratic Failure”.
“Ironically, the Tadiar dictatorship had given the Muslim minority in the Philippines a much-needed autonomy and self-government, even if it fell short of complete independence for the Bangsamoro Autonomous Province, which replaced the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao in 1991. In addition, the inclusion of Nur Misuari into the Tadiar-run Council for National Sovereignty had laid out the plans for the long-awaited federalization project for the Philippines. Mindanao proved to be extremely tough, because of the various ethnic groups that inhabited the area. Tadiar, impatient as he always is, imposed a solution that was tough and controversial, even to this day. He resettled the Ilocanos who were ordered to leave the province of Sultan Kudarat (because it was going to be ceded to the Bangsamoro Autonomous Province), and the provinces of North and South Cotabato (before they merged to form a united Cotabato Province) into Central Luzon, most notably Nueva Ecija, where the first stages of the Philippine Civil War took place, with the inhabitants of southern Nueva Ecija being targeted by General Ver’s forces due to their opposition to the Marcos dictatorship. The linguistic map of Nueva Ecija changed within decades, as Ilocanos became a majority in Nueva Ecija, Tarlac and Zambales, while he simply resettled Kapampangans in Bataan to justify merging it with nearby Pampanga province. The Tagalogs would be pushed back to Bulacan province, while the Igorots, Ibanags and other mountain tribes had consolidated themselves in a single Cordillera Autonomous Province. Aurora Province too, eventually became Ilocano majority, with the Ilocanos from North and South Cotabato being resettled there as well. Despite all of that, some Tagalogs remained in Aurora and Nueva Ecija, simply to give the illusion of a linguistic diversity. In Visayas on the other hand, Samar and Leyte had been merged by Tadiar’s decree to form what he called ‘Bangsawaray’, or a unified Waray-speaking province. Cebu and Bohol were merged to form Sugbu Province, while Negros, Romblon and Panay were merged to form Madyas province, after the Confederation of Madyas. Palawan was simply left as it is, while Oriental and Occidental Mindoro were merged to form a united Mindoro province. The entire Bicol region was turned into one province, while the region of what is then Calabarzon were merged with Bulacan to form Selurong Province. The controversial population exchanges within the Philippines had contributed to a sense of growing regional self-identification, but it also allowed the Tadiar military dictatorship to turn these newly established provinces or Prefectures after 1999, into military districts where a military officer would effectively rule the province as a military governor. The former National Capital Region of Manila was simply turned into the Federal City District of Manila, while Kabankalan and its surrounding areas would become the Federal City District of Kabankalan. The ultimate irony is that by creating the federal system for the country, Tadiar had in fact sowed the seeds for the demise of his own dictatorship, because he gave more powers to his junior underlings, who were able to make shady deals with various unsavory characters, most notably with the Yakuza, the Kkangpae, and the various drug cartels operating out of Mexico and Colombia.”Jesse Robredo, from “Lost Decades: Marcos, Tadiar and the Butchering of Philippine Democracy”.
CHINESE TROOPS LAUNCH ATTACK AGAINST VIETNAMESE ARMY IN LAO CAI, INCURSION REPELLED WITH LIGHT CASUALTIES ON BOTH SIDES Japan Times September 23, 1987
Lao Cai, VIETNAM – Approximately 2,900 Chinese troops had attempted to cross the Sino-Vietnamese border into the town of Lao Cai, backed by massive artillery and aerial bombardment as Vietnamese forces managed to repel an attempted Chinese invasion. The attack comes at a time when Vietnam is still technically at war with Cambodia, though in reality it is at war with the Khmer Rouge faction of the Cambodian communist regime. Pro-Vietnamese Cambodian forces backed by the Vietnamese military occupation in Cambodia had also repelled an attempt by Thai forces to capture the mountainous area of Chong Bok. The Vietnamese commander of the military force occupying Cambodia, Le Duc Anh, had confidence in his troops’ ability to help their Cambodian counterparts in stopping a Thai offensive into Cambodia. Moreover, the Vietnamese government had accused Thailand of harboring Khmer Rouge militants on its borderlands, although Thai authorities denied the accusations and in turn, accused Vietnam of violating Thai territorial sovereignty. The Vietnamese occupation of Cambodia has so far aroused fears of a local conflict in SE Asia degenerating into a full-scale war, with the civil war breaking out in neighboring Philippines, between three factions, each claiming to be the legitimate ruling government of the Philippines.
“The Vietnamese government condemns the actions of our so-called Chinese fraternal brothers’ attempt at invading our lands, while at the same time we have been tasked by the true representatives of the Kampuchean people to clear out the Khmer Rouge from Kampuchea,” says Vo Chi Cong, the current President of Vietnam. “At the same time, we once again call upon the Thai government to stop giving refuge to the Khmer Rouge and to turn them over to both the legitimate Kampuchean and Vietnamese authorities, so they can stand trial for their heinous crimes against their own people.”
Meanwhile, China’s Premier Hu Yaobang had condemned Vietnamese ‘aggression’ against Thailand and their own puppet Cambodian communists, advising the Vietnamese government to reconsider their decision to attack Khmer Rouge positions in the Thai-Cambodian border, but so far Chinese military leaders are itching to re-ignite their war against Vietnam, citing the exhaustion of the Vietnamese military from their operations against the Khmer Rouge, alongside the pro-Hanoi People’s Republic of Kampuchea government.
“Operation: Miranda was basically General Ver’s version of Operation: Ichi-Go, with a massive military offensive against the pro-Aquino forces, striking at three targets within Luzon Island that have been under the control of her administration. General Ver made significant gains between the start of the operation and the end of the year, much of southern Luzon had fallen under the control of pro-Marcos/Ver forces, and even Marinduque Island had been besieged by November of 1987. It was the only victory that General Ver scored against Brigadier General Tadiar, mainly because he was far busier with the second attempt at attacking Calamian Islands and Palawan at the same time. It was a huge gamble for Tadiar, because the loss of Marinduque Island would allow General Ver to launch additional attacks on Romblon Island. The final area of Bicol region that remained under the control of pro-Aquino forces have fallen by December 4th of this year. As we speak, Pangasinan is already invaded by other forces aligned with General Ver, and Bataan is already under his control. Unlike the first attempt at taking the Calamian Islands that ended in Tadiar’s first defeat, the second attempt was successful, only because the pro-Aquino forces’ morale sunk even lower. This, gentlemen, is the reality that we are facing regarding the Philippines. Unless we intervene to stop the Marcos dictatorship from coming back to power, we will at least end up with a very weak Aquino administration. At worst, we may have to rely on that rogue general, Tadiar, for assistance. I am sorry to say, gentlemen, that all our options are not on the table. We may have to bring together President Aquino and Brigadier General Tadiar to the table if we are to stop the resurgent Marcos dictatorship from coming back.” Donald Rumsfeld, from “Lost Decades: Marcos, Tadiar and the Butchering of Philippine Democracy”.
“The two scenarios created for Joint Challenge Infinite Stratos involved a hypothetical communist rebellion in the Soviet Republic of Priamurye in the Russian Far East, which the armies of Vietnam, Australia, Canada, the United States, Japan, Korea and Russia are taking part in, would intervene to stop the rebellion and capture its leaders. That is Operation: Amatsubaki East. Operation: Blue Tears West would be a scenario where a fictional terrorist group called Black Phantom would initiate a hostile takeover of the Aland Island in Finland. With the cooperation and participation of the Finnish military, we would enter Aland Island to take the terrorists by surprise and terminate them. In each scenarios highlighted under the Joint Challenge, the participant nations are applying the Lebed-Van Riper Doctrine, which called for small scale infiltration missions to locate and destroy hostile targets, as well as operating with limited technology and resources. Finally, the third and last phase of the Joint Challenge will be simulating a Russian two pronged invasion. We have obtained approval from the three Baltic States, who also took part in the exercise as fellow NATO members, despite not being active participants in Operation: Blue Tears West. Following a Russian 'invasion' of the Baltics, NATO participants will develop a counter-strategy to oppose the invasion, and act accordingly. Mock suicide missions would be launched by the Polish, Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian contigent forces against the Russians, with most of American troops taking part in the counter-invasion of Krolevetsk Oblast to stop a planned Russian 'attack' on the Russo-Polish border. At the same time, another mock Russian 'invasion' will target the Japanese island of Hokkaido, and perform a behind enemy lines like thrust into the west and east coast of Honshu Island. The participants from Amatsubaki East will perform a delaying action mission until American, Australian and Japanese naval reinforcements will stop the Russian invasion. The final phase, we named it Operation: Silver Gospel. I am satisfied to say that Joint Challenge Infinite Stratos was an astounding success for all participants, as our governments continue to work with our Russian counterparts to contain Chinese aggression in Central and East Asia." From an unnamed US Marine Corps General, detailing the nature of Joint Challenge Infinite Stratos.
Initially it was a straight up Marcos/Ver vs Aquino and Tadiar vs NPA/MNLF before it degenerated into an actual free for all. And if anyone is familiar with Operation: Ichi-Go, you would probably know where this is headed.