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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Feb 21, 2021 7:28:01 GMT
A bit of question, with Jesse Jackson being the first African-American President, wouldn't there be an equivalent of birther conspiracy theories similar to Obama in 2008? I remember Baby Boomers on the internet would share conspiracy videos of Obama being not born in the U.S., a foreign agent, head of a shadow government, the Anti-Christ, a reptilian communist, and what other craziness out there. If Jackson gets hounded by his opponents like that, then we'd see the rise of the far-right/alt-right way earlier in this timeline. Unlike Obama, Jesse Jackson wouldn't have one of those birther conspiracy theories hanging over his head. The accusations of him being a communist wouldn't be far off, since he would definitely hang the Philippines out to dry, with him 'allowing' the Chinese to bomb the Philippines and Vietnam, to a lesser extent. We already have the CIA rogue factions (Cowboys and Corsairs) already doing things behind the President's back (Deep State conspiracy theory), and accusations of him being a globalist might also catch on. Remember the part where a Democrat issues an Articles of Impeachment against President Jackson over allowing China to literally get away with bloody murder because he wanted Tadiar to be weakened long enough for him to be deposed? You might see infighting within both the Democrat and Republican Parties ITTL, and the one crucial point here is Lyndon LaRouche's political presence might become even nastier ITTL. You might also see a rise in the far-left way earlier as well. This will definitely come back at a future update, when the entire Second Russian Civil War Arc is done. Also, we are going to see a lot more of Nicanor Faeldon as well, though in this case he might become an actual fascist in the mold of Jose Primo de Rivera, Mussolini, Hitler, and Sadao Araki, with a touch of Saddam Hussein as well. We might also touch base at what Burma is doing, since I would definitely say that there will be no Burmese junta ITTL, since Burma ITTL will take the place of OTL Philippines. |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Feb 21, 2021 7:31:20 GMT
Chapter Thirty-Eight: The Second Russian Civil War Part Thirteen
RUSSIAN PROVISIONAL GOVERNMENT REACHES DEAL WITH BALTIC STATES REGARDING THE LEGALITY OF THE SOVIET ANNEXATION
The Sun
March 21, 1993
Riga, LATVIA – In a meeting between representatives of the Russian Provisional Government and those of the three Baltic States that are technically a part of the Soviet Union, RPG Acting President Gennady Burbulis has declared the Soviet annexations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania as an illegal act of unilateral annexation, due to the presence of the Red Army occupation in those states, as well as the dubious nature of how the referendum was carried out. The international community had never recognized the Soviet takeover of the Baltic States, except for Australia, which recognized the annexation as legal in the 1970s, and even then, it was just an informal matter. Yet, the meeting that took place in Riga, Latvia is significant, because the Russian Provisional Government’s first act as a de facto legitimate entity that represents the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, was to nullify the results of the referendum that led to the Soviet annexation of the Baltic States, and at the same time, has recognized the independence of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, despite those states not carrying out the planned independence referendum yet, until April of this year.
“The Soviet Union’s occupation of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania had been in violation of several international laws that were in place by the League of Nations back then. However, no other nation has challenged the legality of this Soviet decision so far,” comments the Russian Provisional Government representative Oleg Bessmertnykh while attending the Baltic Summit in Riga, Latvia. “In addition, we are also the first ones to recognize the legitimacy of the Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian government-in-exiles, and have started negotiations with Enno Penno and Lennari Meri on the final fate of the Estonian Republic.”
The agreement made by the Russian Provisional Government and the Baltic States included the repatriation of all ethnic Russians that have immigrated to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, after 1945. Previous Russian communities that existed in the Baltic States prior to the Bolshevik Revolution may stay, or they can also have an option to relocate back to Russia as well. The Russian population of Lithuania had agreed to relocate to Kaliningrad Oblast, which made the transition a lot easier, as they only number around 5% of the population of Lithuania, but the Belarusian community in Lithuania are also facing pressure to relocate to Belarus, or to immigrate to other nations. However, the Russian populations of Estonia and Latvia had already been relocated to the border regions, where they will wait for the border services personnel attached to the National Redemption Army would take them in. Estonia had agreed to cede the town of Narva to Russia, in exchange for Russia taking in all its people that have settled in Estonia, even prior to the Soviet occupation period between 1940 until the German invasion of the USSR. Moreover, there are no current towns in Latvia that could be ceded to Russia, due to the Russian community there electing to move back to Russia, through enlisting in the National Redemption Army.
--- BALTIC STATES DECLARE INDEPENDENCE FROM SOVIET UNION, WHILE UNITED NATIONS WILL HOLD AN EMERGENCY MEETING TO ADMIT NEW NATIONS THAT SECEDED FROM USSR
The New York Times
April 18, 1993
New York City, NEW YORK – The United Nations General Assembly has announced an emergency meeting regarding the admissions of newly declared independent nations that have seceded from the Soviet Union, though at the same time it has also held a session regarding the legal status of the Russian Provisional Government that have proved itself during the Second Russian Civil War. Although the Soviet Union holds veto power in the UN, its representative is rumored to have left the Soviet diplomatic corps and have presented his credentials to the Russian Provisional Government. The UN General Assembly emergency meeting was called for, in response to the Baltic referendums on whether they can secede from the USSR or not. The referendum, which was held just a week ago, resulted in a 96% of the vote in Estonia in favor of independence, 91% in favor of independence for Latvia, and 93% in favor of independence for Lithuania. Finland is the first nation to recognize the independence of the Baltic States, followed by Sweden and Poland. Poland, which had contributed a good number of its volunteers to the civil war in the Soviet Union, had been a surprise factor for the recognition of Lithuania as an independent state, given the historical ties that the two nations shared from its time in the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
In addition, an upcoming referendum on the independence of Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan will take place in the coming months as the Second Russian Civil War seems to have settled down in the Western Theater, except for the Baltic States, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, where the fighting is at its thickest. In the case of Central Asia though, the entry of Chinese troops in the area could prove to be difficult, as they have intervened upon the request of the Soviet government, and the presence of Uyghur training camps in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have given the People’s Liberation Army a pretext for a military intervention there. Unfortunately, the presence of Al-Qaeda had grown to the point where they now control the entirety of southern Turkmenistan and southern Uzbekistan, which shares a border with Afghanistan. The control of the borders makes it easier for Al-Qaeda to transport more of their terrorists into southern Central Asia to expand on their base of operations, although their difficulty increases once they reach the border between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
--- RUSSIA, BALTIC STATES, TO COMPLETE POPULATION EXCHANGES BETWEEN BALTIC RUSSIANS AND BALTIC DEPORTEES RELOCATED TO SIBERIA DURING SOVIET RULE BY THE END OF THIS YEAR
Moscow Times
July 4, 2001
St. Petersburg, ST. PETERSBURG FEDERAL CITY – Russian President Nikolay Azarov has announced that the relocation of the Baltic Russians back to the Motherland will be completed by the end of this year, as the repatriation of the Baltic deportees sent to Siberia during the Soviet period almost reaches its conclusion. The population exchanges between the Russian Federation and the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, is a part of the agreement made by the Russian Provisional Government and the Baltic governments-in-exile, in which Russia condemned the Soviet takeover of the Baltic nations in 1940. Moreover, it was also announced that the former Estonian city of Narva had been absorbed into the Russian town of Ivangorod.
“There are approximately 50,000 Baltic deportees living in Siberia today, and we have Stalin to thank for that. It is an easy process to repatriate the Baltic deportees to their homelands, but it is difficult to bring back some of our people who were transplanted into those territories during Soviet rule, and this is on top of the earlier Russian communities that have been established in the 18th century,” Azarov explains in front of the Estonian parliament during a visit last month. “All the properties that have been owned by the Baltic Russian population are sold to their respective governments, as we have agreed upon as well.”
The nicknamed ‘Baltic Transfer Agreement’, in reference to the infamous but unheard of agreement between the Nazi regime and the British colonial authorities in Palestine, where German Jews are allowed to move to Palestine with their wealth, had a provision where the Baltic Russian population have to sell all but their essential belongings to their governments, and the profits made from the sales would go through the newly created White Sea Logistics and Finances, founded by close Yeltsin business partner Anatoly Sobchak. Upon arrival in Russia, the Baltic Russian customer would receive the same amount of money that he or she had deposited in a special account from when they were still in the Baltic States. However, a 28% deduction in the profits made from the sales of the property is imposed, with the deductions going towards the reparations program that Azarov had made, in agreement with the Baltic governments.
“When you think about it, 28% of the profits made by the White Sea Logistics and Finances that are deducted is nothing but a drop in the ocean. The Russian government is going to foot the bill in paying reparations to descendants of the Baltic deportees, and even that might not be enough,” comments Estonian President Ene Ergma after being asked about the status of the reparations. “Although it is courageous for the Russian government to admit its past crimes in front of the whole world as a way of undergoing a national catharsis.”
--- LAST SOVIET LOYALIST STRONGHOLD IN NORTH CAUCASUS FALLS AS NATIONAL REDEMPTION ARMY AND CHECHEN FIGHTERS RETAKE GROZNY FROM RED ARMY
Sydney Herald
April 19, 1993
Grozny, CHECHENO-INGUSH ASSR – In a repeat of the decisive rebel victory against the Soviet loyalist forces at the Battle of Chernobyl, the joint NRA-Chechen rebel forces had succeeded in trapping the Red Army’s feared 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division, inside the Checheno-Ingush ASSR’s capital, Grozny. Most of the nicknamed Taman Division’s T-80 battle tanks have been disabled and destroyed by the lighter armed Chechen rebel fighters, while the National Redemption Army’s own T-80 and older model T-72 battle tanks have been successful in destroying any redoubts held by the Red Army. However, it was mostly infantry units within both sides that have carried out much of the fighting, with the occasional airstrikes made by mainly the National Redemption Army’s air arm, while helicopters are also deployed by the loyalists to pin down the rebels, though they proved to be easy targets for both the NRA and Chechen rebels’ anti-air weapons. In addition, the Red Army infantry’s morale was slowly sagging, as the Chechen veterans of the Soviet War in Afghanistan have joined the main Chechen rebel group, rather than the National Redemption Army.
However, the recent victory in Chernobyl, along with the additional seizure of airfields within the Russian SFSR by the National Redemption Army had slowly resulted in the loss of air superiority for the loyalists, who are now in the process of moving much of their heavy equipment to the Turkestan Military District, to prevent it from falling into the hands of the National Redemption Army and other pro-independence forces seeking to have their respective nations secede from the USSR. Even as Grozny falls, much of the North Caucasus region had already been captured by the NRA and have already made power-sharing agreements with the Russian Provisional Government. Even better, the Georgian military has been helpful in blockading the rest of the North Caucasus from Armenia and Azerbaijan, thereby preventing any loyalist forces stationed in the area from reinforcing the besieged Red Army garrison in Grozny. With the fall of Grozny, the National Redemption Army is now in total control of the entire North Caucasus region, and is poised to intervene in the ongoing conflict in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, though it is unclear as to which side the NRA will take.
National Redemption Army soldiers enter the ruined city of Grozny after several days of heavy bombing campaign by the rebel bombers against Soviet loyalist positions within the city.--- “So, what is the Provisional Government of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea? It is a de facto alternative government that was established by Kim Pyong-il, the younger son of the late North Korean dictator, Kim Il-Sung. Although the PGDPRK was only recognized by the South Korean government as an alternative government to the one in Pyongyang, it was soon followed by the Russian Provisional Government, which had already severed ties with the Pyongyang-based Kim regime over the failed attempt by the North Korean official government to invade Vladivostok, and their defeat at the hands of the National Redemption Army. Since the fateful defeat, much of the Korean People’s Army’s VI Corps had been living in the Russian Far East as auxiliary troops carrying out guard duties and performed basic menial tasks, such as repairs and clean up duty. Their lives remained in legal limbo until the Continuation War of 2004, when during the clashes between the two Koreas occurred, Russia had sent the KPA’s VI Corps into South Korea, through Japanese maritime waters, despite the furious reaction in Tokyo over the presence of rebellious North Korean soldiers on what is essentially Japanese territory. The VI Corps’s officers have played a role in giving crucial information to their South Korean military peers, and even helped the US military navigate through the hostile North Korean terrain while launching an invasion of North Korea itself. However, it was the VI Corps’ participation in the liberations of the border towns that led to the famous Battle of Kumchon, where an entire Filipino Army division had taken the town and had to defend it against an onslaught of Chinese volunteers that were deployed to North Korea to defend it. Kumchon would become one of the most brutal battles of the 21st century, surpassing even the Siege of Sverdlovsk during the Second Russian Civil War, with both Filipino and Chinese soldiers slaughtering each other while taking no prisoners at all. The final phase of the Battle of Kumchon occurred when Filipino reinforcements had taken the town of Namchonjom, and had converged on Kumchon, where Chinese troops preferred to die fighting than surrender. The result of this was that the Continuation War had resulted in the collapse of the North Korean dictatorship, and the establishment of the Transitional Council for the Recovered Northern Territories, which became a successor to the PGDPRK. While the TCRNT still kept its North Korean staff, much of the civilian positions would be taken by various South Korean chaebols, or rich families, especially in the finance sector. However, the controversy would arise when it is revealed that a good chunk of the chaebols that have taken over the civilian sector of the TCRNT were descended from prominent Korean collaborators who served the Japanese colonial government when Japan annexed Korea in 1910. The appointment of the chinilpa descendants is also a risky move by the reunified Korean government, as it was willing to appoint descendants of national traitors to rule over what is essentially a defeated former communist nation.” From the documentary “The Korean Reunification”, published by SBS, May 19, 2017.
--- SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS MAKE THEIR RETURN DEBUT TO NEWLY BUILT JERRY RICE MEMORIAL STADIUM AS JESSE JACKSON PRESIDES OVER THE OFFICIAL OPENING OF NEW STADIUM BUILT AFTER THE LOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKE
San Francisco Chronicle
September 5, 1993
San Francisco, CALIFORNIA – Well, if it is not a surprising homecoming for the San Francisco 49ers, which had quickly regained their team name and logo, after spending their last three seasons in Portland, Oregon, as the Portland Storm. The 1992 NFL Season was the last season that the temporarily renamed Portland Storm had played their games in Portland, and it was one of their rarest seasons that they ever had, coming off a 11-5 record, though they would unfortunately lose to the Philadelphia Eagles, who would eventually defeat the Dallas Cowboys by a score of 13-10, only to lose to the Buffalo Bills in the 1993 Super Bowl. Since then, the announcement that the Jerry Rice Memorial Stadium in San Francisco had completed its construction electrified the Bay Area, which had eagerly waited for the San Francisco 49ers to return to their new home. With the 1993 NFL Season set to kick off later today, Jerry Rice Memorial Stadium will have a special guest of honor, who will preside over the annual tradition of the Ceremonial Kickoff and Throwoff, where the sitting American president will kick the ball to both teams and throw the football to the team captains. The announcement that President Jesse Jackson will come to visit Jerry Rice Memorial Stadium to preside over this new tradition has also resulted in the biggest sellouts in the history of the 49ers, as over 100,000 tickets have been sold to an eager 49ers fans that are excited to see their teams back.
“Bring it on! We supported the Portland Storm when the 49ers relocated to Portland, and now that the 49ers are coming back here to play, I would say that it is time for us to shine once again!” says 49ers fan Ken Lesley while holding a mug of beer. “Let’s hope to win the Super Bowl this season!”
Thanks to the popularity of the erstwhile Portland Storm, NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue has announced that the NFL will award expansion franchises to Portland, Baltimore, Charlotte, and Omaha in 1999, followed by an additional expansion goal into Canada. Tagliabue is also holding talks with the representatives of the CFL, including current CFL Commissioner Larry W. Smith, on the possible merger of the two football leagues, provided that certain changes in the rules that both the NFL and CFL had employed for their games. Although President Jackson is not a fan of any NFL team, his invitation to watch the first 49ers game in the new stadium may yet result in him becoming a new 49ers fan.
“It is a great honor for each American president to come and have a nice conversation with the American people, and this way of life is exactly why America is the greatest country in the world,” President Jackson explains before his trip to the Jerry Rice Memorial Stadium, in front of journalists who will cover his visit to San Francisco. “Yes, I may still be flying in an airplane, but rest assured, even after I finish my two terms as President, the American people will begin to see their President and Vice President travel by magnet trains and fall in love with railways once again.”
--- “While I agree with the major focus on the domestic front, I think that President Jackson has neglected foreign policy. We had just learned that Saddam Hussein has invaded Kuwait and is in the process of taking it over, and for what? Just so he can regain those territories that he lost to the Iranians in the last war that Iraq fought against Iran, and that is not to say that our forces can stop the conflict. Yes, we have started to pull out of Nicaragua, and it has resulted in the Nicaraguans bragging at how they defeated us. This is another defeat that we sustained, and the second one since Vietnam. If we do not change the way we conduct our wars, then our military’s reputation will take a hit, and we will become a laughingstock. We need to also pay attention to the Middle East, now more than ever, because if the Turks, Syrians, and Iranians succeed in suppressing the Kurdish revolt that is going on, they will eventually expel them from their territories, and push them into Iraqi Kurdistan, and that is something that we do not need right now. Israel’s security will remain in danger unless we do something about it.” Daniel Moynihan, speaking about the American response to Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait while Iraq is dealing with a Kurdish uprising.
--- 1994 FIFA World Cup Qualified Teams:
AFC: South Korea, Japan CAF: Ivory Coast, Zambia, Cameroon CONCACAF: Mexico (Canada lost the CONCACAF/OFC playoff to Australia) CONMEBOL: Colombia, Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina (advances to the playoffs and defeats Australia) OFC: none (Argentina defeated Australia to take the CONMEBOL spot) UEFA: Germany, Denmark, Spain, Hungary, Yugoslavia, Greece, Belgium, Romania, England, Sweden, Italy, Poland, France (world champions) Group A: United States (hosts), Greece, Japan, Uruguay Group B: France, Romania, Yugoslavia, Zambia Group C: Colombia, Denmark, Germany, Mexico Group D: Argentina, Belgium, England, South Korea Group E: Cameroon, Italy, Spain, Poland Group F: Brazil, Hungary, Ivory Coast, Sweden --- 1992 Major League Baseball Season Playoffs
American League: Toronto Blue Jays (96-66) vs Minnesota Twins (94-68)
National League: Pittsburgh Pirates (96-66) vs Cincinnati Reds (95-67)
Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins (TOR wins series 4-1)
Game 1: Minnesota 3-5 Toronto
Game 2: Minnesota 1-3 Toronto
Game 3: Toronto 4-2 Minnesota
Game 4: Toronto 2-3 Minnesota (10 innings)
Game 5: Toronto 4-3 Minnesota (11 innings)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds (CIN wins series 4-2)
Game 1: Pittsburgh 2-4 Cincinnati
Game 2: Pittsburgh 2-6 Cincinnati
Game 3: Cincinnati 0-1 Pittsburgh
Game 4: Cincinnati 3-4 Pittsburgh
Game 5: Cincinnati 4-1 Pittsburgh
Game 6: Pittsburgh 2-5 Cincinnati
1992 World Series – Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds
Game 1: Cincinnati 2-0 Toronto
Game 2: Cincinnati 2-4 Toronto
Game 3: Toronto 4-1 Cincinnati
Game 4: Toronto 9-2 Cincinnati
Game 5: Toronto 2-5 Cincinnati
Game 6: Cincinnati 3-2 Toronto
Game 7: Cincinnati 1-3 Toronto
Toronto Blue Jays win World Series 4 games to 2 (2nd Title)
1993 Major League Baseball Playoffs
ALCS: Toronto Blue Jays (94-68) vs Chicago White Sox (95-67)
NLCS: Montreal Expos (96-66) vs San Francisco Giants (105-87)
Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox
Game 1: Chicago WS 2-0 Toronto
Game 2: Chicago WS 7-4 Toronto
Game 3: Toronto 5-1 Chicago WS
Game 4: Toronto 3-1 Chicago WS
Game 5: Toronto 7-1 Chicago WS
Game 6: Chicago WS 4-2 Toronto
Game 7: Chicago WS 3-4 Toronto (13 innings)
TOR wins series 4-3
Montreal Expos vs San Francisco Giants
Game 1: Montreal 4-3 San Francisco
Game 2: Montreal 1-5 San Francisco
Game 3: San Francisco 2-1 Montreal
Game 4: San Francisco 0-4 Montreal
Game 5: San Francisco 2-3 Montreal (11 innings)
Game 6: Montreal 1-3 San Francisco
Game 7: Montreal 2-1 San Francisco (12 innings)
1993 World Series – Toronto Blue Jays vs Montreal Expos
Game 1: Toronto 2-3 Montreal (12 innings)
Game 2: Toronto 5-3 Montreal
Game 3: Montreal 0-4 Toronto
Game 4: Montreal 4-1 Toronto
Game 5: Montreal 3-2 Toronto (12 innings)
Game 6: Toronto 2-4 Montreal (14 innings)
MON wins series 4 games to 2
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Feb 21, 2021 10:22:20 GMT
A bit of question, with Jesse Jackson being the first African-American President, wouldn't there be an equivalent of birther conspiracy theories similar to Obama in 2008? I remember Baby Boomers on the internet would share conspiracy videos of Obama being not born in the U.S., a foreign agent, head of a shadow government, the Anti-Christ, a reptilian communist, and what other craziness out there. If Jackson gets hounded by his opponents like that, then we'd see the rise of the far-right/alt-right way earlier in this timeline. Unlike Obama, Jesse Jackson wouldn't have one of those birther conspiracy theories hanging over his head. The accusations of him being a communist wouldn't be far off, since he would definitely hang the Philippines out to dry, with him 'allowing' the Chinese to bomb the Philippines and Vietnam, to a lesser extent. We already have the CIA rogue factions (Cowboys and Corsairs) already doing things behind the President's back (Deep State conspiracy theory), and accusations of him being a globalist might also catch on. Remember the part where a Democrat issues an Articles of Impeachment against President Jackson over allowing China to literally get away with bloody murder because he wanted Tadiar to be weakened long enough for him to be deposed? You might see infighting within both the Democrat and Republican Parties ITTL, and the one crucial point here is Lyndon LaRouche's political presence might become even nastier ITTL. You might also see a rise in the far-left way earlier as well. This will definitely come back at a future update, when the entire Second Russian Civil War Arc is done. Also, we are going to see a lot more of Nicanor Faeldon as well, though in this case he might become an actual fascist in the mold of Jose Primo de Rivera, Mussolini, Hitler, and Sadao Araki, with a touch of Saddam Hussein as well. We might also touch base at what Burma is doing, since I would definitely say that there will be no Burmese junta ITTL, since Burma ITTL will take the place of OTL Philippines.
Well that would be a definite improvement for Burma but would require quite a change as the military has been in charge and brutally suppressing any opposition pretty much since independence.
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gillan1220
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I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
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Post by gillan1220 on Feb 21, 2021 13:04:53 GMT
How are the Olympics changed here? I'm sure 1988 would still be held in Seoul and 1992 in Barcelona since those were already planned before the POD. So 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020 Olympics would be different locations from OTL.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Feb 21, 2021 20:58:51 GMT
Well that would be a definite improvement for Burma but would require quite a change as the military has been in charge and brutally suppressing any opposition pretty much since independence. As we speak, I am making another Omake that will cover Burma right now. Keep in mind that the 1988 Uprising had occurred almost at the same time as the end of the Philippine Civil War, so it would not be surprising if Burma does end up entangled in a civil war. Also, the Burmese junta had been mired in several ethnic uprisings against the Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Rakhine, and Shan states, so a civil war against the junta might not be out of the question. It could also give Aung San Suu Kyi an opportunity to build a stable democracy in Burma, and given the ongoing coup that is going on now, and the protests, I wanted to give TTL Burma a sense of how it can develop itself into a stable democracy, though on a level that may be a bit better than both OTL Philippines and OTL Burma. How are the Olympics changed here? I'm sure 1988 would still be held in Seoul and 1992 in Barcelona since those were already planned before the POD. So 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020 Olympics would be different locations from OTL. So far, we have the 1988 Seoul Olympics, and the 1992 Olympics in Barcelona. 1996 onwards, that might have to be covered in another Omake, or throw it in with the Omake update that I am doing right now. I can guarantee you though, that ITTL no one will definitely award the Olympics (Summer or Winter otherwise) to China, not only because of the Tiananmen Square massacre, but TTL's Chinese aggression in the West Philippine Sea as well. The Winter Olympics might also be different as well, and we could even have an Olympics being hosted in Russia (though, it might not be out of the question if the Olympics were to be hosted in Volgograd, or Yekaterinburg/Isetgrad instead of Sochi). The 1994 World Cup would still be held in the United States, but I might as well list TTL's locations for the next World Cup: 1998: France (like IOTL) 2002: Japan (no joint tournaments would be allowed by FIFA, as told in the Prologue) 2006: South Africa (I will explain how this came to being, as the simple PoD of Charlie Dempsey voting for South Africa would have tied the votes, forcing Sepp Blatter to vote for South Africa instead) 2010: Colombia 2014: Kazakhstan (ITTL they would remain with the AFC, instead of switching to the UEFA, as they did IOTL 2002) 2018: Spain 2022: United States 2026: TBA |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Feb 22, 2021 2:41:32 GMT
OMAKE TEN: The Burmese Way Out of Socialism
Excerpts from the documentary “To Fight Your Way into Democracy: The Tragic Tale of Burma After Socialism”
Australian Broadcasting Corporation, released on May 25, 2016
“Before the riots of 1988 had occurred, Burma had been under a totalitarian, left-wing junta that governed the country, through the ongoing insurgencies at that time meant that Burma was always teetering on the brink of political collapse. The 1986 revolution in the Philippines had alerted the Burmese junta to the possibility of a civil war if the military had gone out of control, and with the rise of Artemio Tadiar as the junta’s leader after a grueling civil war in 1988, it was not impossible that a similar civil war would break out within Burma. The so-called 8888 Uprising, because it happened on August 8, 1988, erupted because of economic instability and the insurgency in the five States containing ethnic minorities that had a legitimate grievance against the Burmese government. Much of the early pro-democracy protests had been aimed at toppling the military junta led by Ne Win, though it was usually accompanied by riots. Following on July 23, 1988, as demands for democracy increased, Ne Win would stun the nation, and resign from his post, but not before appointing a successor who was even more reviled than he was: Sein Lwin. Finally, on August 7, 1988, Sein Lwin would order the Tatmadaw, or the Burmese military, to kill the protesters without any hint of mercy. The Rangoon Massacre, as it was later called, resulted in over 500 Burmese anti-regime student activists dead, and an additional 1,400 injured activists. The catalyst for the civil war in Burma would not come from the capital, but from the second largest city in Burma, Mandalay. In Mandalay, on August 8, a military unit of the Tatmadaw was ordered to deploy into the capital of Rangoon, but the commander of the Mandalay garrison, Aung Gyi, refused to follow the order, as he had grown disillusioned with the socialist junta. Subsequently, he reached out to Aung San Suu Kyi, the daughter of Burma’s founding father, for a compromise, promising that if civil war were to break out in Burma, his military will fight on the side of democracy. True to his word, the Mandalay garrison rebelled against the loyalist Tatmadaw units and detained its pro-junta officers, resulting in subsequent rebellions throughout Burma that has not been affected by the ethnic revolts in the north.
The foundation of the Reformed Tatmadaw, or the Reformed Burmese Military, had not been done in complete haste, as the other mutineers that later joined Aung Gyi came from military regiments that were fighting the Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Rakhine, and Shan states. The Communist Party of Burma had also been involved in the rebellions against the Burmese socialist junta, though their struggle would now be put on hold, as much of the CPB had fled across the border, and into China. Much of the CPB’s leadership would later be retrained in China, as Ye Fei’s long-term plan of a Chinese regional hegemony of Asia will certainly involve Burma as well. It was in Burma that the first growing pains of a neo-Maoist movement would be witnessed, as the Chinese government realized that with Pakistan remaining a Chinese ally in the West that could threaten India, Burma could also be used to contain India as well. Thus, Ye Fei and Wang Dongxing would be instrumental in giving greater support to the CPB. As for the Burmese loyalist forces, their diplomatic isolation rapidly grew as the international community, even including the socialist bloc, had cut off ties to Burma. Such a move made it harder for Burma to gain necessary allies to suppress the pro-democracy movement. On the other hand, the Burmese pro-democracy faction had gained significant support from the United States and Great Britain, but it was Australia that mainly supported it, through shipment of supplies and ammunition. However, the pro-democracy supporters and their Western backers had to rely on Thailand to act as a logistics center for the delivery of supplies, as they could not directly ship it through Rangoon, as it was the center of the junta. In addition, the five ethnic states in the north had also gained support from the Western powers, as their demands for autonomy would have fit in with Aung Gyi’s fight for democracy.
The first major battle of the Burmese Civil War occurred just three days after the uprising started, with the loyalist attempts to retake Mandalay from the rebels. However, guerrilla attacks launched by the Reformed Tatmadaw had resulted in the loyalist retreat to Rangoon. At the same time, the Royal Australian Navy had deployed much of its surface vessels to enact a naval blockade of southern Burma, with the Royal Thai Navy participating in it as well. The military junta responded by retreating to the safer, more secure city of Naypyitaw, serving as a temporary capital while Rangoon was blockaded. From Naypyitaw, the loyalist Tatmadaw forces would constantly attack Mandalay, while the insurgents in the north would resort to guerrilla warfare. China at this point, was still mired with the Vietnamese situation, making a possible covert support for the CPB fighters impossible. The civil war in Burma became deadlier as the months went by, with much of the country pretty much divided, with the loyalists entrenched in the south and the west, the ethnic insurgents in the north, and Aung Gyi’s rebels in the center and the east. Additional instability would also take place, with the CPB returning to Burma to wage a guerrilla war against all three factions, seizing control of much of the eastern regions from Aung Gyi’s rebels, forcing them to retreat to Mandalay. Much of the rest of the conflict degenerated into a virtual warzone, with various generals declaring themselves as warlords, taking control of various provinces throughout Burma. The only positive sign to the civil war was the assassination of Sein Lwin on June 19, 1990, by a sniper affiliated with the All-Burma Students’ Democratic Front, which had taken place in the town of Pyinmana. Unfortunately, the loyalists would up the ante by assassinating Aung San Suu Kyi, during the second anniversary of the 8888 Uprising, when a loyalist hit squad had shot her in the chest, along with Aung Gyi himself, who was there to protect her.”
--- NATIONAL LEAGUE FOR DEMOCRACY REACHES DEAL WITH OTHER OPPOSITION GROUPS FOR CLOSER TIES, AMIDST GROWING INSTABILITY IN BURMA
Sydney Herald
July 13, 1990
Mandalay, BURMA – The new chairwoman of the National League for Democracy, May Win Myit, had met with representatives of Burma’s other opposition groups, to coordinate closer activities with each other, amidst the escalating situation inside the country. Representatives of the All-Burma Students’ Democratic Front, and the Communist Party of Burma, also attended the peace summit in Mandalay, even though most of the other opposition groups refused to even talk to the CPB’s representatives. The attempts at a ceasefire between rival opposition groups had been negotiated with much difficulty, as neither side wanted to give up much of their power to the other. However, Than Khe, the leader of the ABSDF, had proposed to merge the militant arms of their respective factions to fight the loyalist junta on an equal footing, even appointing U Thuzana as the overall commander, despite not holding a military rank at all, but leads the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army. The appointment of an ethnic Karen as a leader of the later named Burmese Democratic Defense Force was significant, as the National League for Democracy was willing to negotiate with the ethnic minorities in the north to win their support for the civil war.
“The only way for Burma to heal itself of the divisions that was imposed on it by outside factors would be to make concessions towards the ethnic minorities. Though most Burmese would ne uncomfortable with an ethnic minority member leading this group, it is a necessary step that needs to be taken to show the junta that a new Burma will be built on democratic principles,” says U Thuzana after confirming his appointment as the leader of the BDDF. “I will also share power with May Win Myit, as a way of demonstrating my commitment to the principles of federalism and power sharing.”
At the same time, the Communist Party of Burma’s main militant arm, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, had continued to gain support from the Chinese government, and even invited senior officers of the People’s Liberation Army to help train the MNDAA with modern military tactics, and survival skills. Ye Fei, who is conscious of Burma’s role in the possible Chinese containment of India, gave his support for the spreading of the neo-Maoist ideology in Burma, at a time when the Second Russian Civil War had become more dangerous for the socialist bloc. Although no Burmese volunteers were reported to have joined the Soviet loyalist side in the Second Russian Civil War, several Soviet junior officers were seen in Naypyitaw, consorting with the loyalist junta forces.
--- “Burma is our lifeline to the Indian Ocean. Without Burma, we cannot hope to keep India contained, and with it, our hopes of gaining access to the Indian Ocean. We have already seized Nansha Islands from SE Asia and have obtained Vietnam’s surrender to our glorious forces. We have also kept Laos and Cambodia under our influence and are making progress with Burma. Thailand, although a monarchy, could be persuaded to align with us, though on the Finnish model. Having all of Indochina and Burma will also serve to contain Thailand as well, and with it, our path to Malaysia and Indonesia will be clear. However, the Philippines will soon no longer be an obstacle, as we would have wiped out their pathetic military and force the Manila fascists to bow down to us. If there is even one nation in all of Asia that can oppose our march to regional hegemony, we will never feel safe and secure. India will remain a hostile enemy of China, and Japan is a bitter reminder of their militarist past. Once we neutralize India and Japan, then we can truly feel secure in our supremacy over all of Asia. If necessary, we may have to break India apart to establish entities that will be friendly to our interests. Asia must be harmonized once again, and this time, we will no longer tolerate competition from the Western nations. Our civilization has outlasted even the ancient civilizations of the West, proving that it is far superior to theirs.” Wang Dongxing, addressing a cadre of neo-Maoist followers within the People’s Liberation Army, February 22, 1996.
--- WAR AIMS OF A FUTURE CONFLICT BETWEEN CHINA AND INDIA:
1) The Arunachal Pradesh territory, as well as Aksai Chin, Demchok, Chumar, Kaurik, Tashigang-Shipki La, Pulam Sumda, Nelang, Sang Jadhang, Tirpani, Mana Pass, and Bara Hoti, will be ceded to China from India. This is to ensure the enlargement of the Tibet Autonomous Region and maintaining the loyalty of the Tibetan people to the Chinese state.
2) All of Jammu and Kashmir will be ceded to Pakistan, while fomenting separatist movements within India. China will support certain separatist factions within India that will serve Chinese interests (ie: Sikkim, Khalistan, northeast India). Afghanistan would also be stabilized, with the removal of Islamist terror groups from the region.
3) Alternatively, China could also support the idea of an enlarged Bengali state as a way of creating another buffer state to India, in exchange for partitioning Arunachal Pradesh between China and a larger Bengali state, with the McMahon Line as the permanent border between the two nations. Moreover, West Bengal in India will be ceded to Bangladesh.
--- BELOW: The map of what Ye Fei might consider Greater China, which is close to the territories held by the Qing Dynasty. 
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Post by kyuzoaoi on Feb 22, 2021 5:14:46 GMT
With only Taiwan needed and it would be perfect.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Feb 22, 2021 5:31:23 GMT
With only Taiwan needed and it would be perfect. Good catch. I already edited the map. Although I did not include the Ryukyu Islands, even though the Chinese might claim that the former Ryukyu Kingdom was a Chinese tributary state from the Ming Dynasty. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Feb 22, 2021 5:42:13 GMT
With only Taiwan needed and it would be perfect. Good catch. I already edited the map. Although I did not include the Ryukyu Islands, even though the Chinese might claim that the former Ryukyu Kingdom was a Chinese tributary state from the Ming Dynasty. I'm sure Russia would not allow China to take Primorsky Krai and Mongolia. This could escalate into a nuclear conflict. Below: Map of Chinese claims by both the ROC and the PRC  From Reddit: Greater China - China claimed large parts of Asia as Chinese territory during the 20th century. |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Feb 22, 2021 6:06:48 GMT
Yes, Russia would certainly not allow China to 'regain' its lost territories, since there is also a possibility of China expanding beyond the Amur region. Hence, the post-Soviet Russian governments under Burbulis, Azarov, Domash, Rogozin and Bolhovets would find it more practical to join forces with the US, but even that might not be easy, as the Americans are also feeling nervous about a resurgent Russia. Even with a more influential 'Ukrainian Lobby' as the communist diehards would call the main faction that holds sway over the Russian government, the West would still be nervous at the idea of a stronger Russia. I also threw in a hint of India becoming a target of Chinese destabilization efforts, just to cut them down to size since they are aware that TTL India has a bigger potential to become an economic giant that OTL China is. I would also say that it might even be possible for China to have designs on northern Vietnam too.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Feb 22, 2021 9:37:37 GMT
Posting this here for reference from OTL. Equipments and Firepower (1988)Armed Forces of the PhilippinesSource: Asia 1988 YearbookPhilippine Army- Light tanks: 28 x Scorpion IFV
- Armored Fighting Vehicles - Mechanized Infantry Combat Vehicles: 45 x AIFV (YPR-765 PRI)
- Armored Personnel Carrier: 80 x M113, 20 x Chaimite, 120 x V-150
- Artillery/Howitzer: 105 mm: 260 x M101/M102; 155 mm: 12 M-114, mortar: 81 mm; 107 mm x 40
- Anti-tank weapons: Recoilless launcher: 75mm: M-20; 90 mm: M-67; 106 mm: M-40
Philippine Navy7 x Frigates[1]:- 4 x Casco-class cutter (non-operational)
- 1 x Savage-class destroyer escort[2]
- 2 x Cannon-class destroyer escort
10 x Corvettes:
- 2 x Auk-class minesweeper
- 7 x PCE-827
- 1 x Admirable-class minesweeper
Patrol craft:
13 x Large:- 1 x command
- 4 x Kagitingan-class patrol craft (unserviceable)
- 4 x PGM-39
- 1 x PGM-71
- 2 x US PC-461
- 1 x SAR ship
73 x Coastal:- 31 x de Haviland 9209
- 39 x Sewart Swift Mks 1/2/3
- 3 x others
Amphibious:- 3 x support
- 24 x Landing Ship, Tank
- 4 x Landing Ship, Medium
- 61 x Landing Craft Medium/mechanized
- 7 x Landing Craft, Vehicles, and personnel
- 3 x Landing Craft Utility
Search and Rescue:- 1 squadron with 6 x N-24A Searchmaster aircraft
- 5 x BO-105 helicopters
Support:
- 2 x Presidential yachts
- 3 x repair ships
- 1 x support ship
- 2 x tankers
Philippine Marines- Armored Personnel Carrier: 30 x LVTP-5, 55 x LVTP-70[3]
- Artillery/Howitzer: 105 mm: 150 x M101
- Mortar: 4.2-in (107 mm): M30
Philippine Coast Guard- Equipment: Some 65 patrol craft including 3 large Search and Rescue, 2 light aircraft
- Much of the above equipment is unserviceable; status of the orders listed below is unclear.
- (On order: 2 x ex-US destroyers, 3 x PSMM-5 Fast Attack Craft [Gun]; 6 x Kagitingan-class patrol craft large, 50 small patrol boats [some 19 x swift-type for coast guard]; 1 Landing Craft, Vehicles, and Personnel, amphibious).
Philippine Air Force- Total: 51 x combat aircraft, 16 x armed helicopter
- Fighter Ground Attack: 1 squadron with 12 x F-8H (to be withdrawn)
- Air Defense: 1 squadron with 10 x F-5A/B
- Counterinsurgency (COIN): aircraft: 3 squadrons with 26 x T-28D; helicopter: 1 wing with 41 x Bell UH-1H, 16 x S-76
- Maritime Reconnaissance: 3 x F-27 Maritime
- Transport: Presidential airlift wing: aircraft: 1 x F-28, 2 x F-27; helicopter: 1 x S-76, 1 x SA-330 Puma, 1 x S-70AS, 1 x Bell 212
- Transport: 5 squadrons: aircraft: 1 with x 6 Hercules (3 x C-130H, 3 x L-100); 1 with 3 x C-47 (Douglas DC-3), 8 x F-27; 1 with 7 x N-22B Missionmaster; 1 with 19 x BN-2 Islander; helicopter: 1 with 10 x BO-105, 18 x UH-1H
- Liason: 2 x Cessna 10
- Training: 3 squadrons: 1 with 21 x T/RT-33A, 18 x T-14D; 1 with 24 x SIAI-Marchetti SF-260
- Air-to-air missile: Sidewinder
Notes:
[1] Typographical error. The Philippine Navy never operated frigates. The largest ships at the time were destroyer escorts (DE).
[2] Another typographical error. The correct name is Edsall-class destroyer escort. The ship being referred here is the BRP Rajah Lakandula (PF-4), which was formerly in the Republic of Vietnam Navy as the RVNS Tran Hung Dao (HQ-1). Prior to that, it was known as the USS Camp (DE-251).
[3] Error: Numbers are smaller in reality than the ones published.
China's Ballistic Missile Programs: Technologies, Strategies, GoalsJoshua Wilson Lewis and Hua Di Page 20 (Browser Page 16) mentions: China: Ballistic and Cruise MissilesCRS Report to Congress Updated: August 10, 2000 Page 10 (CRS-7) states the following: |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 22, 2021 16:13:43 GMT
Well that would be a definite improvement for Burma but would require quite a change as the military has been in charge and brutally suppressing any opposition pretty much since independence. As we speak, I am making another Omake that will cover Burma right now. Keep in mind that the 1988 Uprising had occurred almost at the same time as the end of the Philippine Civil War, so it would not be surprising if Burma does end up entangled in a civil war. Also, the Burmese junta had been mired in several ethnic uprisings against the Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Rakhine, and Shan states, so a civil war against the junta might not be out of the question. It could also give Aung San Suu Kyi an opportunity to build a stable democracy in Burma, and given the ongoing coup that is going on now, and the protests, I wanted to give TTL Burma a sense of how it can develop itself into a stable democracy, though on a level that may be a bit better than both OTL Philippines and OTL Burma. How are the Olympics changed here? I'm sure 1988 would still be held in Seoul and 1992 in Barcelona since those were already planned before the POD. So 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020 Olympics would be different locations from OTL. So far, we have the 1988 Seoul Olympics, and the 1992 Olympics in Barcelona. 1996 onwards, that might have to be covered in another Omake, or throw it in with the Omake update that I am doing right now. I can guarantee you though, that ITTL no one will definitely award the Olympics (Summer or Winter otherwise) to China, not only because of the Tiananmen Square massacre, but TTL's Chinese aggression in the West Philippine Sea as well. The Winter Olympics might also be different as well, and we could even have an Olympics being hosted in Russia (though, it might not be out of the question if the Olympics were to be hosted in Volgograd, or Yekaterinburg/Isetgrad instead of Sochi). The 1994 World Cup would still be held in the United States, but I might as well list TTL's locations for the next World Cup: 1998: France (like IOTL) 2002: Japan (no joint tournaments would be allowed by FIFA, as told in the Prologue) 2006: South Africa (I will explain how this came to being, as the simple PoD of Charlie Dempsey voting for South Africa would have tied the votes, forcing Sepp Blatter to vote for South Africa instead) 2010: Colombia 2014: Iran 2018: Spain 2022: United States 2026: TBA
Interesting and the list of world cups make me think about two of them, a) 2006 - given that S Africa seems to have a much bloodier transition to majority rule I'm assuming it calms down a lot and also that the country, with many of its white population having fled and taking their expertise with them would it have the resources to host a tournament.
b) 2014 - that suggests that Iran will change a hell of a lot with the collapse of the clerical dictatorship. Otherwise I can't see them wanting it or most nations being willing to vote for them.
Agree that China is very unlikely to see anything TTL and one in Russia after the new republic settles down does seem quite likely. I would be interested in your choice of Columbia for 2010? It has some experience of playing but would it be able to host such a large event. Under different circumstances I could seen Venezuela possibly as its oil wealth would give a basis for supporting a large tournament but not sure about Columbia. Also it would need a clear end to both the communist insurgency and the drug gangs that have plagued the country.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 22, 2021 16:39:48 GMT
OMAKE TEN: The Burmese Way Out of Socialism
Excerpts from the documentary “To Fight Your Way into Democracy: The Tragic Tale of Burma After Socialism”
Australian Broadcasting Corporation, released on May 25, 2016
“Before the riots of 1988 had occurred, Burma had been under a totalitarian, left-wing junta that governed the country, through the ongoing insurgencies at that time meant that Burma was always teetering on the brink of political collapse. The 1986 revolution in the Philippines had alerted the Burmese junta to the possibility of a civil war if the military had gone out of control, and with the rise of Artemio Tadiar as the junta’s leader after a grueling civil war in 1988, it was not impossible that a similar civil war would break out within Burma. The so-called 8888 Uprising, because it happened on August 8, 1988, erupted because of economic instability and the insurgency in the five States containing ethnic minorities that had a legitimate grievance against the Burmese government. Much of the early pro-democracy protests had been aimed at toppling the military junta led by Ne Win, though it was usually accompanied by riots. Following on July 23, 1988, as demands for democracy increased, Ne Win would stun the nation, and resign from his post, but not before appointing a successor who was even more reviled than he was: Sein Lwin. Finally, on August 7, 1988, Sein Lwin would order the Tatmadaw, or the Burmese military, to kill the protesters without any hint of mercy. The Rangoon Massacre, as it was later called, resulted in over 500 Burmese anti-regime student activists dead, and an additional 1,400 injured activists. The catalyst for the civil war in Burma would not come from the capital, but from the second largest city in Burma, Mandalay. In Mandalay, on August 8, a military unit of the Tatmadaw was ordered to deploy into the capital of Rangoon, but the commander of the Mandalay garrison, Aung Gyi, refused to follow the order, as he had grown disillusioned with the socialist junta. Subsequently, he reached out to Aung San Suu Kyi, the daughter of Burma’s founding father, for a compromise, promising that if civil war were to break out in Burma, his military will fight on the side of democracy. True to his word, the Mandalay garrison rebelled against the loyalist Tatmadaw units and detained its pro-junta officers, resulting in subsequent rebellions throughout Burma that has not been affected by the ethnic revolts in the north.
The foundation of the Reformed Tatmadaw, or the Reformed Burmese Military, had not been done in complete haste, as the other mutineers that later joined Aung Gyi came from military regiments that were fighting the Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Rakhine, and Shan states. The Communist Party of Burma had also been involved in the rebellions against the Burmese socialist junta, though their struggle would now be put on hold, as much of the CPB had fled across the border, and into China. Much of the CPB’s leadership would later be retrained in China, as Ye Fei’s long-term plan of a Chinese regional hegemony of Asia will certainly involve Burma as well. It was in Burma that the first growing pains of a neo-Maoist movement would be witnessed, as the Chinese government realized that with Pakistan remaining a Chinese ally in the West that could threaten India, Burma could also be used to contain India as well. Thus, Ye Fei and Wang Dongxing would be instrumental in giving greater support to the CPB. As for the Burmese loyalist forces, their diplomatic isolation rapidly grew as the international community, even including the socialist bloc, had cut off ties to Burma. Such a move made it harder for Burma to gain necessary allies to suppress the pro-democracy movement. On the other hand, the Burmese pro-democracy faction had gained significant support from the United States and Great Britain, but it was Australia that mainly supported it, through shipment of supplies and ammunition. However, the pro-democracy supporters and their Western backers had to rely on Thailand to act as a logistics center for the delivery of supplies, as they could not directly ship it through Rangoon, as it was the center of the junta. In addition, the five ethnic states in the north had also gained support from the Western powers, as their demands for autonomy would have fit in with Aung Gyi’s fight for democracy.
The first major battle of the Burmese Civil War occurred just three days after the uprising started, with the loyalist attempts to retake Mandalay from the rebels. However, guerrilla attacks launched by the Reformed Tatmadaw had resulted in the loyalist retreat to Rangoon. At the same time, the Royal Australian Navy had deployed much of its surface vessels to enact a naval blockade of southern Burma, with the Royal Thai Navy participating in it as well. The military junta responded by retreating to the safer, more secure city of Naypyitaw, serving as a temporary capital while Rangoon was blockaded. From Naypyitaw, the loyalist Tatmadaw forces would constantly attack Mandalay, while the insurgents in the north would resort to guerrilla warfare. China at this point, was still mired with the Vietnamese situation, making a possible covert support for the CPB fighters impossible. The civil war in Burma became deadlier as the months went by, with much of the country pretty much divided, with the loyalists entrenched in the south and the west, the ethnic insurgents in the north, and Aung Gyi’s rebels in the center and the east. Additional instability would also take place, with the CPB returning to Burma to wage a guerrilla war against all three factions, seizing control of much of the eastern regions from Aung Gyi’s rebels, forcing them to retreat to Mandalay. Much of the rest of the conflict degenerated into a virtual warzone, with various generals declaring themselves as warlords, taking control of various provinces throughout Burma. The only positive sign to the civil war was the assassination of Sein Lwin on June 19, 1990, by a sniper affiliated with the All-Burma Students’ Democratic Front, which had taken place in the town of Pyinmana. Unfortunately, the loyalists would up the ante by assassinating Aung San Suu Kyi, during the second anniversary of the 8888 Uprising, when a loyalist hit squad had shot her in the chest, along with Aung Gyi himself, who was there to protect her.”
--- NATIONAL LEAGUE FOR DEMOCRACY REACHES DEAL WITH OTHER OPPOSITION GROUPS FOR CLOSER TIES, AMIDST GROWING INSTABILITY IN BURMA
Sydney Herald
July 13, 1990
Mandalay, BURMA – The new chairwoman of the National League for Democracy, May Win Myit, had met with representatives of Burma’s other opposition groups, to coordinate closer activities with each other, amidst the escalating situation inside the country. Representatives of the All-Burma Students’ Democratic Front, and the Communist Party of Burma, also attended the peace summit in Mandalay, even though most of the other opposition groups refused to even talk to the CPB’s representatives. The attempts at a ceasefire between rival opposition groups had been negotiated with much difficulty, as neither side wanted to give up much of their power to the other. However, Than Khe, the leader of the ABSDF, had proposed to merge the militant arms of their respective factions to fight the loyalist junta on an equal footing, even appointing U Thuzana as the overall commander, despite not holding a military rank at all, but leads the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army. The appointment of an ethnic Karen as a leader of the later named Burmese Democratic Defense Force was significant, as the National League for Democracy was willing to negotiate with the ethnic minorities in the north to win their support for the civil war.
“The only way for Burma to heal itself of the divisions that was imposed on it by outside factors would be to make concessions towards the ethnic minorities. Though most Burmese would ne uncomfortable with an ethnic minority member leading this group, it is a necessary step that needs to be taken to show the junta that a new Burma will be built on democratic principles,” says U Thuzana after confirming his appointment as the leader of the BDDF. “I will also share power with May Win Myit, as a way of demonstrating my commitment to the principles of federalism and power sharing.”
At the same time, the Communist Party of Burma’s main militant arm, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, had continued to gain support from the Chinese government, and even invited senior officers of the People’s Liberation Army to help train the MNDAA with modern military tactics, and survival skills. Ye Fei, who is conscious of Burma’s role in the possible Chinese containment of India, gave his support for the spreading of the neo-Maoist ideology in Burma, at a time when the Second Russian Civil War had become more dangerous for the socialist bloc. Although no Burmese volunteers were reported to have joined the Soviet loyalist side in the Second Russian Civil War, several Soviet junior officers were seen in Naypyitaw, consorting with the loyalist junta forces.
--- “Burma is our lifeline to the Indian Ocean. Without Burma, we cannot hope to keep India contained, and with it, our hopes of gaining access to the Indian Ocean. We have already seized Nansha Islands from SE Asia and have obtained Vietnam’s surrender to our glorious forces. We have also kept Laos and Cambodia under our influence and are making progress with Burma. Thailand, although a monarchy, could be persuaded to align with us, though on the Finnish model. Having all of Indochina and Burma will also serve to contain Thailand as well, and with it, our path to Malaysia and Indonesia will be clear. However, the Philippines will soon no longer be an obstacle, as we would have wiped out their pathetic military and force the Manila fascists to bow down to us. If there is even one nation in all of Asia that can oppose our march to regional hegemony, we will never feel safe and secure. India will remain a hostile enemy of China, and Japan is a bitter reminder of their militarist past. Once we neutralize India and Japan, then we can truly feel secure in our supremacy over all of Asia. If necessary, we may have to break India apart to establish entities that will be friendly to our interests. Asia must be harmonized once again, and this time, we will no longer tolerate competition from the Western nations. Our civilization has outlasted even the ancient civilizations of the West, proving that it is far superior to theirs.” Wang Dongxing, addressing a cadre of neo-Maoist followers within the People’s Liberation Army, February 22, 1996.
--- WAR AIMS OF A FUTURE CONFLICT BETWEEN CHINA AND INDIA:
1) The Arunachal Pradesh territory, as well as Aksai Chin, Demchok, Chumar, Kaurik, Tashigang-Shipki La, Pulam Sumda, Nelang, Sang Jadhang, Tirpani, Mana Pass, and Bara Hoti, will be ceded to China from India. This is to ensure the enlargement of the Tibet Autonomous Region and maintaining the loyalty of the Tibetan people to the Chinese state.
2) All of Jammu and Kashmir will be ceded to Pakistan, while fomenting separatist movements within India. China will support certain separatist factions within India that will serve Chinese interests (ie: Sikkim, Khalistan, northeast India). Afghanistan would also be stabilized, with the removal of Islamist terror groups from the region.
3) Alternatively, China could also support the idea of an enlarged Bengali state as a way of creating another buffer state to India, in exchange for partitioning Arunachal Pradesh between China and a larger Bengali state, with the McMahon Line as the permanent border between the two nations. Moreover, West Bengal in India will be ceded to Bangladesh.
--- BELOW: The map of what Ye Fei might consider Greater China, which is close to the territories held by the Qing Dynasty. View Attachment
Bloody but a better future for Burma/Myanmar than OTL.
One issue is that I don't think Naypyidaw existed at this point. It seems to have been an artificial creation in 2002.
Areas south of Vietnam have never, at least to my knowledge been under Chinese direct rule, although I can see an expansionist China wanting to control them. The nearest would be in the treasure ship period in the early 15thC when the commander of the missions - forget his name - traded with them and claimed they recognised themselves as tributary states of the Ming empire. However doubt if the states would ever read any agreement that way. At times Nepal was I think a tributary state of China and I think after Britain occupied Burma the Qing empire claimed it was a tributary states and Britain was willing to accept this but the Burmese strongly denied it.
Definitely agree that Russia wouldn't tolerate Chinese encroachment on their territory, especially with China intervening against them in Central Asia. If nothing else the Amur region is the most heavily populated in eastern Siberia and if China got hold of that then there would be no basis for Russia to hold the rest of eastern Siberia.
China would definitely seek to weaken India as the only other local nation except possibly Japan that could challenge their predominance in E Asia. However not sure they could get Islamic terrorists out of Afghanistan as that would mean a major clash with Pakistan. The latter country probably couldn't bring its own military elements that have been supporting the Taliban under control without a lot of effort that they might not be willing/able to engaged in.
Steve
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Feb 22, 2021 16:46:08 GMT
True, and a larger resources would have enabled South Africa to host the 2006 World Cup, but the economic and social effects of an earlier World Cup there may be far more negative (think Brazil 2014 IOTL).
IOTL Colombia was one of the candidates to host the 2014 World Cup. I could change that to Venezuela in a time when Hugo Chavez did not come to power. Iran might be feasible, though given the controversy that is the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, Iran toning down their authoritarian behavior may also require a much needed distraction (this is where Saddam’s Iraq would come in, and given the Kurdish revolt, and Abdullah Ocalan actually getting executed, you know where this might go). Either China or Russia might become a moderating influence for Iran in this case.
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Feb 22, 2021 16:57:21 GMT
True, and a larger resources would have enabled South Africa to host the 2006 World Cup, but the economic and social effects of an earlier World Cup there may be far more negative (think Brazil 2014 IOTL). IOTL Colombia was one of the candidates to host the 2014 World Cup. I could change that to Venezuela in a time when Hugo Chavez did not come to power. Iran might be feasible, though given the controversy that is the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, Iran toning down their authoritarian behavior may also require a much needed distraction (this is where Saddam’s Iraq would come in, and given the Kurdish revolt, and Abdullah Ocalan actually getting executed, you know where this might go). Either China or Russia might become a moderating influence for Iran in this case.
Interesting I didn't know/had forgotten that Columbia was a candidate for 2014.  Thanks.
Frankly as long as the clerics are in charge in Iran I can't see them being interested in something like the world cup, especially since it would mean a hell of a lot of foreigners and foreign press especially in the country. Nor could I see much of the rest of the world supporting such a bid while their in charge. The Sunni Muslim world as well as most of the west would be opposed and I can't really see Latin America supporting them either. China as you said is likely to be a pariah itself so I doubt it would have much influence in such international bodies. As such I think the clerics would have to be removed and probably some sort of democratic regime in power and reasonably stable to get the sort of open culture that would welcome such an event.
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Thanks.