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Post by american2006 on Oct 22, 2020 19:23:57 GMT
Senator Ted Cruz steps out onto a podium on the campus of the Liberty University in Virginia. The date is March 23rd, 2015. “Ladies and gentlemen,” he begins, “I’m here to answer the question I’ve so frequently been asked, that is, whether or not I shall seek the Presidency of the United States in the upcoming Presidential Election. My answer is I will stand for liberty! I will restore the ideals of Lincoln and Reagan into the White House. We will make America Great Again!” The crowd applause as Cruz gives the remainder of his speech announcing his candidacy.
Cruz was the first to announce his candidacy in the race. His campaign slogan, Make America Great Again, caught on with many conservative voters but his often moderate message helped attract moderates. His though, was not the only campaign seeking the GOP nomination. Jeb Bush would announce his candidacy two months later. Other minor candidates included Ben Carson, Donald Trump, and Mitt Romney. Jeb Bush initially lead in polling, but his support was challenged by Cruz. Bush attempted to attack Cruz, but when Cruz brushed off the attacks, his support grew substantially. Cruz decisively won the first in the nation Iowa caucus, followed by wins in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. Cruz won the first Super Tuesday voted by a wide margin and gained the nomination soon after.
Meanwhile, the Democratic primaries saw a fierce competition between Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Hillary Clinton. However, with the moderate votes split between Biden and Clinton, Sanders gained the nomination.
The next step for each candidacy would be selecting their running mates. Sanders chose Montana Governor Steve Bullock. Cruz chose primary challenge Jeb Bush. Going into Election Day, Cruz had a 9 point lead over Sanders, but they were neck-in-neck in non-white support.
On Election Day, however, everyone was in for a surprise. Latinos/Latinas, Black Americans, Asians and others favor d the young Cuban Cruz over the old white Sanders. Cruz won this demographic by 3 points, enough to flip 13 states and Maines second district. Most significantly was the wins in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania , Delaware, and New Jersey, destroying the blue wall. Ted Cruz would be the 45th President of the United States.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Oct 22, 2020 20:16:58 GMT
Now this looks like an interesting one. In a match-up between two exceedingly conservative/liberal candidates, who'd win? Obviously, TTL has favored Cruz to do so (and I lean slightly towards him prevailing anyway), though whether he'd carry a nine-point lead into Election Day, I don't know. Granted, Sanders' stances may be rather much for the average Middle American (i.e. abolishing private health insurance), but whether he could boost youth turnout to compensate for that fact is an interesting question, I think.
Perhaps it's coming eventually (and therefore renders my question redundant), but how might TTL 2016 election map likely look? Again, I can get behind Sanders being too far to the left for most of Middle America. I could be wrong on this point, but Cruz doesn't strike me as someone who has the unionized, blue-collar support that Trump grabbed up with his promises to bring manufacturing back and slap tariffs on China. So the extent to which he'd win the Midwest and New England seems somewhat unclear to me.
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Post by american2006 on Oct 22, 2020 20:44:19 GMT
Now this looks like an interesting one. In a match-up between two exceedingly conservative/liberal candidates, who'd win? Obviously, TTL has favored Cruz to do so (and I lean slightly towards him prevailing anyway), though whether he'd carry a nine-point lead into Election Day, I don't know. Granted, Sanders' stances may be rather much for the average Middle American (i.e. abolishing private health insurance), but whether he could boost youth turnout to compensate for that fact is an interesting question, I think. Perhaps it's coming eventually (and therefore renders my question redundant), but how might TTL 2016 election map likely look? Again, I can get behind Sanders being too far to the left for most of Middle America. I could be wrong on this point, but Cruz doesn't strike me as someone who has the unionized, blue-collar support that Trump grabbed up with his promises to bring manufacturing back and slap tariffs on China. So the extent to which he'd win the Midwest and New England seems somewhat unclear to me. The big thing here is Cruz (a hispanic) could be attractive to Hispanics and other non-whites. Therefore, instead of the 59 point Democratic lead, it is a 3 point GOP lead. The actual map would be more red, without some of trumps comments before and during the election. So Midwest yes, but only New Hampshire and ME-2 by narrow leads. |
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Oct 22, 2020 21:11:13 GMT
Now this looks like an interesting one. In a match-up between two exceedingly conservative/liberal candidates, who'd win? Obviously, TTL has favored Cruz to do so (and I lean slightly towards him prevailing anyway), though whether he'd carry a nine-point lead into Election Day, I don't know. Granted, Sanders' stances may be rather much for the average Middle American (i.e. abolishing private health insurance), but whether he could boost youth turnout to compensate for that fact is an interesting question, I think. Perhaps it's coming eventually (and therefore renders my question redundant), but how might TTL 2016 election map likely look? Again, I can get behind Sanders being too far to the left for most of Middle America. I could be wrong on this point, but Cruz doesn't strike me as someone who has the unionized, blue-collar support that Trump grabbed up with his promises to bring manufacturing back and slap tariffs on China. So the extent to which he'd win the Midwest and New England seems somewhat unclear to me. The big thing here is Cruz (a hispanic) could be attractive to Hispanics and other non-whites. Therefore, instead of the 59 point Democratic lead, it is a 3 point GOP lead. The actual map would be more red, without some of trumps comments before and during the election. So Midwest yes, but only New Hampshire and ME-2 by narrow leads. I can understand him having more appeal to those demographics than the average Republican candidate, but closing a sixty-two point gap seems rather ASB to me. Cruz may be less likely to turn people off than Trump was, though how he'll respond to Sanders's claims about how single-payer would cost less (which I'm someone skeptical of myself), I don't know. |
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Post by american2006 on Oct 22, 2020 22:08:25 GMT
The big thing here is Cruz (a hispanic) could be attractive to Hispanics and other non-whites. Therefore, instead of the 59 point Democratic lead, it is a 3 point GOP lead. The actual map would be more red, without some of trumps comments before and during the election. So Midwest yes, but only New Hampshire and ME-2 by narrow leads. I can understand him having more appeal to those demographics than the average Republican candidate, but closing a sixty-two point gap seems rather ASB to me. Cruz may be less likely to turn people off than Trump was, though how he'll respond to Sanders's claims about how single-payer would cost less (which I'm someone skeptical of myself), I don't know. To be fair, it was a 44 point gap in 2012. It's a stretch, I know, but I think Cruz could pull it off. In 2004 (when both candidate where white) the gap was 54-44, so it would just be a 13 point shift from the pre-Obama Era. |
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Post by american2006 on Oct 22, 2020 23:27:18 GMT
January 2017
This month marked the first for the Ted Cruz administration, beginning when President Ted Cruz and Vice President Jeb Bush took the Oath of Office. It also marked a new era for the country as a whole. Republicans won Senate races in Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire, kept the House and Senate majorities, and picked up gubernatorial seats in Missouri, New Hampshire, and Vermont. The GOP was ready for power after 8 years of Obama. However, some pundits began to remark that since the landslide 1972 Presidential election, a Bush had been on each winning GOP ticket. Many began to call the GOP the Party of Bush. However, news soon turned back to President Cruz.
He began with for the Secretary of the Treasury, President of the Trump Organization Donald Trump. For the Secretary of State, he chose Mitt Romney. For the Secretary of Health and Human Services, he chose Ben Carson. These were his first announced picks. He announced their would be no nominee for the departments of Education, Energy, Commerce, or HUD. Those positions responsibilities would either be repealed entirely or go to the Department of the Interior. Mike Pence of Indiana, Marco Rubio of Florida, and John Kasich of Ohio are also announced to cabinet positions.
President Cruz continued his presidency by pulling the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Cruz then announced plans for the "Freedom of Education Act", proposed by Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC).
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 23, 2020 10:37:46 GMT
January 2017This month marked the first for the Ted Cruz administration, beginning when President Ted Cruz and Vice President Jeb Bush took the Oath of Office. It also marked a new era for the country as a whole. Republicans won Senate races in Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire, kept the House and Senate majorities, and picked up gubernatorial seats in Missouri, New Hampshire, and Vermont. The GOP was ready for power after 8 years of Obama. However, some pundits began to remark that since the landslide 1972 Presidential election, a Bush had been on each winning GOP ticket. Many began to call the GOP the Party of Bush. However, news soon turned back to President Cruz. He began with for the Secretary of the Treasury, President of the Trump Organization Donald Trump. For the Secretary of State, he chose Mitt Romney. For the Secretary of Health and Human Services, he chose Ben Carson. These were his first announced picks. He announced their would be no nominee for the departments of Education, Energy, Commerce, or HUD. Those positions responsibilities would either be repealed entirely or go to the Department of the Interior. Mike Pence of Indiana, Marco Rubio of Florida, and John Kasich of Ohio are also announced to cabinet positions. President Cruz continued his presidency by pulling the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Cruz then announced plans for the "Freedom of Education Act", proposed by Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC).
Well that's not a good sign. He might sound more moderate that Trump but that's a pretty reactionary programme. To ignore the main strength of the nation, i.e. its people and presumably the environment is not a good idea. Plus having a known fraudster like Trump in the Treasury isn't going to be good for American finance either! Guessing the others are also hard right reactionaries.
Because he's more subtle that Trump Cruz following this path could be even worse for the US than Trump has been.
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Post by american2006 on Oct 23, 2020 11:42:14 GMT
January 2017This month marked the first for the Ted Cruz administration, beginning when President Ted Cruz and Vice President Jeb Bush took the Oath of Office. It also marked a new era for the country as a whole. Republicans won Senate races in Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire, kept the House and Senate majorities, and picked up gubernatorial seats in Missouri, New Hampshire, and Vermont. The GOP was ready for power after 8 years of Obama. However, some pundits began to remark that since the landslide 1972 Presidential election, a Bush had been on each winning GOP ticket. Many began to call the GOP the Party of Bush. However, news soon turned back to President Cruz. He began with for the Secretary of the Treasury, President of the Trump Organization Donald Trump. For the Secretary of State, he chose Mitt Romney. For the Secretary of Health and Human Services, he chose Ben Carson. These were his first announced picks. He announced their would be no nominee for the departments of Education, Energy, Commerce, or HUD. Those positions responsibilities would either be repealed entirely or go to the Department of the Interior. Mike Pence of Indiana, Marco Rubio of Florida, and John Kasich of Ohio are also announced to cabinet positions. President Cruz continued his presidency by pulling the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Cruz then announced plans for the "Freedom of Education Act", proposed by Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC).
Well that's not a good sign. He might sound more moderate that Trump but that's a pretty reactionary programme. To ignore the main strength of the nation, i.e. its people and presumably the environment is not a good idea. Plus having a known fraudster like Trump in the Treasury isn't going to be good for American finance either! Guessing the others are also hard right reactionaries.
Because he's more subtle that Trump Cruz following this path could be even worse for the US than Trump has been.
He said he would get rid of the four cabinet positions and their respective departments, and actually Trump isn’t going to play a major role. Without the attention of the media on him, many controversies never come out. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 23, 2020 11:55:51 GMT
Well that's not a good sign. He might sound more moderate that Trump but that's a pretty reactionary programme. To ignore the main strength of the nation, i.e. its people and presumably the environment is not a good idea. Plus having a known fraudster like Trump in the Treasury isn't going to be good for American finance either! Guessing the others are also hard right reactionaries.
Because he's more subtle that Trump Cruz following this path could be even worse for the US than Trump has been.
He said he would get rid of the four cabinet positions and their respective departments, and actually Trump isn’t going to play a major role. Without the attention of the media on him, many controversies never come out.
Without the attention of the media on him Trump isn't going to be happy so he will look for some way to gain publicity. More to the point with his track record how long before he suggests the US solves its debt problem simply by defaulting? 
Its the broad basis of a reactionary right government, especially as you say with a less unstable leader than Trump, that is going to be the real threat to the US.
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Post by american2006 on Oct 23, 2020 14:50:33 GMT
He said he would get rid of the four cabinet positions and their respective departments, and actually Trump isn’t going to play a major role. Without the attention of the media on him, many controversies never come out.
Without the attention of the media on him Trump isn't going to be happy so he will look for some way to gain publicity. More to the point with his track record how long before he suggests the US solves its debt problem simply by defaulting?
Its the broad basis of a reactionary right government, especially as you say with a less unstable leader than Trump, that is going to be the real threat to the US.
I’m going to go ahead and say this is not going to be a dystopia, as you have suggested (not more then 2020 anyways). Really it’s seeing how Cruz would respond to the same issues Trump has faced, and also an alternate 2020 election down the road (ie Sanders won’t be running, so someone will have to replace him. Most Presidential Candidates don’t run again after they lose a national election.) |
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Oct 23, 2020 15:33:00 GMT
To be fair, it was a 44 point gap in 2012. It's a stretch, I know, but I think Cruz could pull it off. In 2004 (when both candidate where white) the gap was 54-44, so it would just be a 13 point shift from the pre-Obama Era. Noted. I still think it's a gap far too big for the GOP to close in four years. But in any case, I suppose you've given me more to look at anyway. As it applies to your second chapter, I'm curious as to Cruz's exact stances on trade and other issues that Trump was hammering during OTL 2016? I note that he pulled out of the TPP, but considering what a regulatory monstrosity the thing is, I'm unsure whether Cruz did so with the goal of promoting actual free trade, simplifying trade agreements, or enacting tariffs to revive domestic industries being outsourced elsewhere? Even if it was only briefly, the GOP being branded the party of Bush doesn't sound all that great to me due to the disastrous legacy of Bush the Younger and how much it directly contributed to Obama's ascendance in 2008. Whether the Republicans can change form under Cruz--who seems like less of a war hawk to me anyway--is a pertinent concern to be addressed here, I think. Lastly, I'd ask who the candidates are for ATL 2020, but then that'd spoil some key questions of how history progresses here. With Sanders handily defeated by Cruz, I assume that the Democrats will search for a younger, more moderate nominee to win over areas and demographics that Bernie's campaign couldn't. Obviously, their success in the general will be predicated on how things are under a Cruz administration, since the better things are under Cruz, the less they have to criticize and the less of a case they have for why they should be POTUS instead (with the reverse being equally true as well). |
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Post by american2006 on Oct 23, 2020 17:21:07 GMT
To be fair, it was a 44 point gap in 2012. It's a stretch, I know, but I think Cruz could pull it off. In 2004 (when both candidate where white) the gap was 54-44, so it would just be a 13 point shift from the pre-Obama Era. Noted. I still think it's a gap far too big for the GOP to close in four years. But in any case, I suppose you've given me more to look at anyway. As it applies to your second chapter, I'm curious as to Cruz's exact stances on trade and other issues that Trump was hammering during OTL 2016? I note that he pulled out of the TPP, but considering what a regulatory monstrosity the thing is, I'm unsure whether Cruz did so with the goal of promoting actual free trade, simplifying trade agreements, or enacting tariffs to revive domestic industries being outsourced elsewhere? Even if it was only briefly, the GOP being branded the party of Bush doesn't sound all that great to me due to the disastrous legacy of Bush the Younger and how much it directly contributed to Obama's ascendance in 2008. Whether the Republicans can change form under Cruz--who seems like less of a war hawk to me anyway--is a pertinent concern to be addressed here, I think. Lastly, I'd ask who the candidates are for ATL 2020, but then that'd spoil some key questions of how history progresses here. With Sanders handily defeated by Cruz, I assume that the Democrats will search for a younger, more moderate nominee to win over areas and demographics that Bernie's campaign couldn't. Obviously, their success in the general will be predicated on how things are under a Cruz administration, since the better things are under Cruz, the less they have to criticize and the less of a case they have for why they should be POTUS instead (with the reverse being equally true as well). I will give a few candidates names, though not the nominees. Of course, Cruz is the GOP nominee and Jeb Bush his VP nominee, though that’s no spoiler. With the Democrats, Bullock, Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, Booker, and Warren will run, as in 2020, but others will show up. Cruz won’t jump in head first with free trade, he’ll do something completely different. Things aren’t going to be drastically different under Cruz, though different it will be. Beginning with the next chapter, actually, a major change will occur. |
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Post by american2006 on Oct 23, 2020 17:44:27 GMT
Ted Cruz had called an emergency meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in the White House. The American leader calls the meeting to order.
“Welcome, friends, I’m glad to be able to meet with you all here in the White House. I have something I need to propose to the body of NATO, if I may.”
“You called a meeting of the worlds most powerful leaders for a tidbit of policy! We have ambassadors you know!” PM Theresa May says.
“I won’t call it a tidbit. First, I propose the admittance of 42 countries into NATO, and I propose amending the Constitution of NATO to reflect a new global nature, the Global Treaty Organization.”
Gasps go around the room. “My, why!” The Prime Minister of Canada says.
“To protect our mutual allies around the world, and the stop China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Iraq from expanding their spheres of influence.”
“I have no objection.” The lame duck president of Germany says. “Let’s vote on this.”
The final vote is 20-8, adopting countries around the world, from Argentina to Japan to Israel to Mexico, into the worlds most powerful alliance.
This enraged the enemies of NATO, most especially North Korea. Kim Jon-Un. In a statement on February 2nd, days after the NATO White House conference, Kim said “The Americans, in their adoption of a rebel state in the southern region of our beautiful peninsula, risk war with our nation.”
Cruz, in response, tweeted out, “North Korea is a small mouse trying to fight a bear.” This resulted in the Democrats nicknaming Cruz, ‘The Bear,’ a nickname he fully embraced.
North Korea, however, was not appeased. Military units began to guard the armistice line with South Korea, and then North Korea’s navy blockaded Seoul. American naval vessels then surrounded the comparatively small North Korean fleet, forcing North Korea to stand down.
The North Korean Crisis now resolved, and NATO members on all continents, Cruz began with a popular foreign policy and an approval rating of 63%. However, not all was well in the world. The Middle East, Central Asia, and Kashmir all would become points of conflict internationally, but closer to home, a Supreme Court seat still sat vacant...
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Post by american2006 on Oct 23, 2020 22:46:29 GMT
2016 Election Results at all levels of government
Senate Races
114th Congress (2015-2017) - 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 2 Independents (caucus with Democrats)
115th Congress (2017-2019) - 55 Republicans, 43 Democrats, 2 Independents (caucus with Democrats)
-The GOP flipped Nevada's Senate District, and held on to the deemed battleground states in the Senate in AZ, MO, IL, WI, MI, IN, OH, FL, NC, PN, and NH. They also won the Senate Presidency (the Vice Presidency nationally)
House Races
114th Congress (2015-2017) - 246 Republicans, 186 Democrats (Independents and Third Parties caucused appropriately.)
115th Congress (2017-2019) - 250 Republicans, 182 Democrats (Independents and Third Parties caucused appropriately.)
Gubernatorial Races
Republican Hold: Utah, North Dakota, Idaho, North Carolina
Democratic Hold: Washington, Delaware
Republican Gain: Montana, West Virginia, Oregon, Vermont, New Hampshire
National Race
NV, CO, FL, MN, WI, MI, OH, PN, NJ, DE, NH, NM, VA flip to the Republicans
369 Cruz-169 Sanders
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 24, 2020 10:39:18 GMT
Ted Cruz had called an emergency meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in the White House. The American leader calls the meeting to order. “Welcome, friends, I’m glad to be able to meet with you all here in the White House. I have something I need to propose to the body of NATO, if I may.” “You called a meeting of the worlds most powerful leaders for a tidbit of policy! We have ambassadors you know!” PM Theresa May says. “I won’t call it a tidbit. First, I propose the admittance of 42 countries into NATO, and I propose amending the Constitution of NATO to reflect a new global nature, the Global Treaty Organization.” Gasps go around the room. “My, why!” The Prime Minister of Canada says. “To protect our mutual allies around the world, and the stop China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Iraq from expanding their spheres of influence.” “I have no objection.” The lame duck president of Germany says. “Let’s vote on this.” The final vote is 20-8, adopting countries around the world, from Argentina to Japan to Israel to Mexico, into the worlds most powerful alliance. This enraged the enemies of NATO, most especially North Korea. Kim Jon-Un. In a statement on February 2nd, days after the NATO White House conference, Kim said “The Americans, in their adoption of a rebel state in the southern region of our beautiful peninsula, risk war with our nation.” Cruz, in response, tweeted out, “North Korea is a small mouse trying to fight a bear.” This resulted in the Democrats nicknaming Cruz, ‘The Bear,’ a nickname he fully embraced. North Korea, however, was not appeased. Military units began to guard the armistice line with South Korea, and then North Korea’s navy blockaded Seoul. American naval vessels then surrounded the comparatively small North Korean fleet, forcing North Korea to stand down. The North Korean Crisis now resolved, and NATO members on all continents, Cruz began with a popular foreign policy and an approval rating of 63%. However, not all was well in the world. The Middle East, Central Asia, and Kashmir all would become points of conflict internationally, but closer to home, a Supreme Court seat still sat vacant...
Right, If we assume it could be done on a simple majority vote it wouldn't occur at the drop of an hat like that, even if just stating an intent to invite those nations to join. Furthermore I suspect that at least some of those 42 would raise questions on things like political and economic stability as well as human rights. I know Israel is unlikely to be acceptable to many because of their activities on the west bank and the very hostile reaction that would occur from the Muslim world. Similarly if your including Taiwan, not only is that not accepted as a national state, including by the US it would have China up in arms, quite probably literally.
Also has Cruz actually sounded out those 42 nations themselves? I suspect not as no way such an idea could be kept secret but I wonder if all of them would be willing to join if it ties them to assorted political and military commitments, especially at such short notice.
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