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Post by La Rouge Beret on Nov 20, 2020 23:17:06 GMT
Than in time the Navy can take over responsibility for operating them, except the Air Force will still want that capability. So you end up with 2 services operating the same platform, which sets it up for some delicious turf wars.
The other option is that the Tu 16s are transferred, when the Air Force upgrades to the Blinder.
Do the Indonesians invade Portugese Timor ittl too?
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ssgtc
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Post by ssgtc on Nov 20, 2020 23:46:27 GMT
Than in time the Navy can take over responsibility for operating them, except the Air Force will still want that capability. So you end up with 2 services operating the same platform, which sets it up for some delicious turf wars. The other option is that the Tu 16s are transferred, when the Air Force upgrades to the Blinder. Do the Indonesians invade Portugese Timor ittl too? It depends on Indonesia's alignment. If they stay in their current Soviet leaning direction, they're more likely to support the FRETILIN rebels in an effort to force out the Portugese. If they come back to a Western leaning alignment, they could invade to overthrow the Communist backed government after independence. It's more than just a little convoluted. Honestly, it's shocking just how much of a tinder box that entire region is and is astonishing that it was as stable and peaceful as it was in OTL. It really wouldn't take much of a spark to throw the entire South West Pacific area into near constant war |
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Post by La Rouge Beret on Nov 21, 2020 0:05:25 GMT
Than in time the Navy can take over responsibility for operating them, except the Air Force will still want that capability. So you end up with 2 services operating the same platform, which sets it up for some delicious turf wars. The other option is that the Tu 16s are transferred, when the Air Force upgrades to the Blinder. Do the Indonesians invade Portugese Timor ittl too? It depends on Indonesia's alignment. If they stay in their current Soviet leaning direction, they're more likely to support the FRETILIN rebels in an effort to force out the Portugese. If they come back to a Western leaning alignment, they could invade to overthrow the Communist backed government after independence. It's more than just a little convoluted. Honestly, it's shocking just how much of a tinder box that entire region is and is astonishing that it was as stable and peaceful as it was in OTL. It really wouldn't take much of a spark to throw the entire South West Pacific area into near constant war My undergraduate major was focused on SE Asia, so it's been an area of interest for a long time. As you suggest move a few chess pieces differently and a benign situation turns quite hostile quickly. This entire thread has got me thinking and I might drop you a line about a possible scenario for you to include in your story. Otherwise, I might write it as a standalone story. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 21, 2020 11:41:05 GMT
Than in time the Navy can take over responsibility for operating them, except the Air Force will still want that capability. So you end up with 2 services operating the same platform, which sets it up for some delicious turf wars. The other option is that the Tu 16s are transferred, when the Air Force upgrades to the Blinder. Do the Indonesians invade Portugese Timor ittl too? It depends on Indonesia's alignment. If they stay in their current Soviet leaning direction, they're more likely to support the FRETILIN rebels in an effort to force out the Portugese. If they come back to a Western leaning alignment, they could invade to overthrow the Communist backed government after independence. It's more than just a little convoluted. Honestly, it's shocking just how much of a tinder box that entire region is and is astonishing that it was as stable and peaceful as it was in OTL. It really wouldn't take much of a spark to throw the entire South West Pacific area into near constant war
That doesn't sound good given that OTL there was a fair amount of conflict, largely based around Java's imperial ambitions. [Dutch New Guinea, Portuguese Timor, Malaysian Borneo and didn't they also dabble in the southern Philippines]. Especially since there's more petrol being spread around the bomb-fire site here with the closer alignment with the Soviets and resultant military build up.
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ssgtc
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Post by ssgtc on Nov 21, 2020 12:03:27 GMT
It depends on Indonesia's alignment. If they stay in their current Soviet leaning direction, they're more likely to support the FRETILIN rebels in an effort to force out the Portugese. If they come back to a Western leaning alignment, they could invade to overthrow the Communist backed government after independence. It's more than just a little convoluted. Honestly, it's shocking just how much of a tinder box that entire region is and is astonishing that it was as stable and peaceful as it was in OTL. It really wouldn't take much of a spark to throw the entire South West Pacific area into near constant war
That doesn't sound good given that OTL there was a fair amount of conflict, largely based around Java's imperial ambitions. [Dutch New Guinea, Portuguese Timor, Malaysian Borneo and didn't they also dabble in the southern Philippines]. Especially since there's more petrol being spread around the bomb-fire site here with the closer alignment with the Soviets and resultant military build up.
Nope, not good at all. On the plus side, the Soviets generally tried to keep their client states from doing anything too batshit insane. Destabilize a region? Sure. Trigger WWIII? Not so much. |
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Post by La Rouge Beret on Nov 22, 2020 4:32:46 GMT
Sukarno had a good relationship with both the Soviets and the Chinese. ITTL do you think Chinese & Soviet cliques might form? Also have these butterflies impacted on Vietnam at all?
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ssgtc
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Post by ssgtc on Nov 22, 2020 8:07:30 GMT
Sukarno had a good relationship with both the Soviets and the Chinese. ITTL do you think Chinese & Soviet cliques might form? Also have these butterflies impacted on Vietnam at all? Let's just say that the Sino-Soviet split will have some interesting effects. And no, no effect on Vietnam. At least not yet. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Nov 22, 2020 8:09:17 GMT
Sukarno had a good relationship with both the Soviets and the Chinese. ITTL do you think Chinese & Soviet cliques might form? Also have these butterflies impacted on Vietnam at all? Let's just say that the Sino-Soviet split will have some interesting effects. And no, no effect on Vietnam. At least not yet. So will Indonesia have to choice between one of them to be its sugar daddy. |
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ssgtc
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Post by ssgtc on Nov 22, 2020 13:39:06 GMT
Let's just say that the Sino-Soviet split will have some interesting effects. And no, no effect on Vietnam. At least not yet. So will Indonesia have to choice between one of them to be its sugar daddy. *Inspects fingernails and whistles innocently* |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Nov 22, 2020 16:33:07 GMT
So will Indonesia have to choice between one of them to be its sugar daddy. *Inspects fingernails and whistles innocently* Well whoever Indonesia picks as sugar daddy, both side have pros and cons. I think the Soviet Union is the best of the two, but then again, i am not the person in charge in Jakarta. |
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ssgtc
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Post by ssgtc on Nov 30, 2020 22:13:19 GMT
August 5, 1958
Washington, DC, USA
The Senate Armed Services Committee hears arguments both for and against the proposed transfer of ex-Leyte to Argentina. Several of the Senators express reservations about transferring a fully operational fleet carrier, and it's associated air wing, to another country. The hearings last several hours and though not all of the concerns raised by the Senators are allayed, the committee is showing favorable signs of approving the transfer. The Armed Services Committee adjourns the hearing for the day with plans to reconvene the next day.
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ssgtc
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Post by ssgtc on Nov 30, 2020 22:45:08 GMT
August 6, 1958
Washington, DC, USA
The Senate Armed Services Committee reconvenes to consider the transfer of ex-Leyte to Argentina. To allay some of the Senator's concerns, Argentina's agreement not to use the carrier against American allies is emphasized, as is Argentina's close historic relationship with the United States. In an effort to get the transfer approved, a second provision is proposed. The United States Navy will have the right to inspect Leyte and any American supplied combat aircraft at any time to ensure that neither the ship nor the aircraft have been modified to store, maintain or employ nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. This provision, along with the understanding that the United States Navy will inspect the ship at least once a year, placates the most opposed Senators. After further discussions, a vote is held and the transfer is approved by a vote of 6 in favor to 3 opposed. The proposal is then sent on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations for their approval.
The hearing before the Foreign Relations Committee is much more pro forma than the one before the Armed Services Committee. Primarily because the majority of the Senator's concerns have already been resolved by the various restrictions placed on the use of the carrier. After a three hour discussion, the sale is approved.
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ssgtc
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Post by ssgtc on Nov 30, 2020 22:54:24 GMT
August 10, 1958
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
An intelligence report is delivered to the heads of the Royal Australian Air Force and the Royal Australian Navy. It is from a well placed source in Indonesia. Attached to the report are two grainy photographs. One shows a fighter very similar to Indonesia's MiG-17s, though with some differences. The other has a much large aircraft in it. The sleek, twin engined bomber fills the frame of the photograph. The report that the photos are stapled to provides the explanation. The pictured aircraft are the first MiG-19s and Tu-16s delivered to the Indonesian Air Force. They had arrived just over a week ago.
The new information nearly throws both services into a panic. The new aircraft thoroughly outclassed every fighter and bomber type in the Air Force and the Fleet Air Arm. This development lent new urgency to the planned replacements for the Air Force and Navy. At a joint meeting, a decision is made to narrow the field even further. Messages are sent to Lockheed, Hawker and Dassault that their aircraft were no longer under consideration to fulfill the joint fighter specification that had been issued a month earlier. The primary reason given to Lockheed and Dassault is the lack of carrier suitability in their designs and the length of time required to modify the design to allow carrier operations. The reason provided to Hawker is that the projected in service date is too far in the future and, again, the lack of a naval variant. Concurrently with the rejection messages, requests are delivered to Grumman, McDonnell and Vought asking for their final, best proposals for the F11F-1F, F4H-1 and F8U-3 fighters. Responses are required no latter than August thirty-first.
In conjunction with the fighter specification, the Royal Australian Navy begins preparing a proposal to replace Melbourne. Though the carrier was still nearly new, it was nearly entirely incapable of operating the next generation of carrier aircraft. The rough outline of the proposal requires a ship no smaller than an American Essex class carrier and with the ability to operate the most modern combat aircraft. Getting the government to pay for it though would be far easier said than done.
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Post by La Rouge Beret on Nov 30, 2020 23:12:53 GMT
In the interim perhaps the RAN FAA can operate FJ 4 Furies, which are still outclassed compared to the Mig 19 except that the gap isn't as large as the Sea Venoms. It would also provide an interim step to operating higher performance jets and give me another model kit to build (the most important part). I'm intriguied by the well placed source within the Indonesian government - shades of the year of living dangerously (Mel Gibson film based on a book).
While Argentina can acquire an ESSEX class ship given the parlous state of their economy I think she will end up as a white elephant that spends most of her time alongside, with the occasional time at sea. Much like the Thai aircraft carrier that put to sea the night before we came alongside at Sattahip RTNB, so that she could have a grand entrance next to us the following day.
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ssgtc
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Post by ssgtc on Dec 1, 2020 0:07:33 GMT
In the interim perhaps the RAN FAA can operate FJ 4 Furies, which are still outclassed compared to the Mig 19 except that the gap isn't as large as the Sea Venoms. It would also provide an interim step to operating higher performance jets and give me another model kit to build (the most important part). I'm intriguied by the well placed source within the Indonesian government - shades of the year of living dangerously (Mel Gibson film based on a book). While Argentina can acquire an ESSEX class ship given the parlous state of their economy I think she will end up as a white elephant that spends most of her time alongside, with the occasional time at sea. Much like the Thai aircraft carrier that put to sea the night before we came alongside at Sattahip RTNB, so that she could have a grand entrance next to us the following day. In this case, the source is an Indonesian plane mechanic that the ASIS has some compromising photos of. They're using it to blackmail him into cooperating with them and providing them with information on the state of Indonesia's Air Force. Surprisingly, Argentina can actually pretty easily afford it. They have three light cruisers in service (one British training ship and the two American Brooklyn class), plus a gaggle of mismatched American and British destroyers. They operated all those plus their OTL carrier. So just a little fleet rationalization and they can actually use an Essex effectively. |
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