lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 20, 2020 13:40:25 GMT
So how did the CSA get Cuba, are Porto Rico, Guam and the Philippines still Spanish are did we see a joint USA/CSA war against Spain with Guam and the Philippines ending up becoming USA territories. I think EwellHolmes , is working from his posts in the underused 1000-1900 PODs, see page 12 of that thread. Not only does he assume a decisive victory for the CSA in late 1863 but also the later invasion of Cuba [and probably Puerto Rico] is successful because the 3rd Carlist war takes the same path as OTL, leading to Spain being in chaos and that no other power opposes the conquest. - Although in the above post he's changed that to the purchase of Cuba, from one or other Spanish faction? Furthermore he assumes that Maximilian's regime limps on without French support and when he dies at the age of 44 its without an heir and the south is able to annex it. This leads to war with the north but the latter is defeated. [He has some assumptions mentioned above which may not be accurate. Forces on a Slave Patrol Militia won't necessarily make good infantry in a full scale battle and the fact that the south boosts its artillery is an incentive for the north to do likewise.] Plus the liberals were still successfully resisting the imperials and once the French forces withdraw, in part due to American pressure and also to Napoleon's growing fears about Prussia - which in 1866 by its defeat of Austria and other German states became the primary challenge to the French position in Europe.
As I said in that thread I can't see it actually happening and if they do manage to take over most of Mexico without the latter receiving direct military support its likely to be a hell of a resource sink for them, probably leading to a collapse of the empire in a decade or two at most. Steve
I would assume that if Maximilian is like his brother he would live to the old age of 86. but then again he is emperor of Mexico so that takes a couple of years. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 20, 2020 13:54:17 GMT
I think EwellHolmes , is working from his posts in the underused 1000-1900 PODs, see page 12 of that thread. Not only does he assume a decisive victory for the CSA in late 1863 but also the later invasion of Cuba [and probably Puerto Rico] is successful because the 3rd Carlist war takes the same path as OTL, leading to Spain being in chaos and that no other power opposes the conquest. - Although in the above post he's changed that to the purchase of Cuba, from one or other Spanish faction? Furthermore he assumes that Maximilian's regime limps on without French support and when he dies at the age of 44 its without an heir and the south is able to annex it. This leads to war with the north but the latter is defeated. [He has some assumptions mentioned above which may not be accurate. Forces on a Slave Patrol Militia won't necessarily make good infantry in a full scale battle and the fact that the south boosts its artillery is an incentive for the north to do likewise.] Plus the liberals were still successfully resisting the imperials and once the French forces withdraw, in part due to American pressure and also to Napoleon's growing fears about Prussia - which in 1866 by its defeat of Austria and other German states became the primary challenge to the French position in Europe.
As I said in that thread I can't see it actually happening and if they do manage to take over most of Mexico without the latter receiving direct military support its likely to be a hell of a resource sink for them, probably leading to a collapse of the empire in a decade or two at most. Steve
I would assume that if Maximilian is like his brother he would live to the old age of 86. but then again he is emperor of Mexico so that takes a couple of years.
Would agree that 44 does seem rather young if your assuming his death wasn't due to violence, disease or something like that. Which if the empire survived that long would tend to give it more viability.
Of course what it needed was for Maximilian's appeal to more liberal elements to succeed without alienating the more reactionary elements that were the basis of support for the French. Which was a rather catch 22 position he found himself in.
Steve
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Post by EwellHolmes on May 21, 2020 0:43:13 GMT
 PoD: Stonewall Jackson isn't killed at the Battle of Chancellorsville, but instead is wounded and returns to active duty in charge of II Corps by September, 1863. Lee's Army of Northern Virginia is thereafter is able to win a decisive Battle of Bristoe Station in October, resulting in Anglo-French intervention and Northern war weariness forcing an end to the conflict. The Confederates thereafter have over a decade to get their debt paid off and rebuild. E.P. Alexander is able to get Richmond to buy up the British Armstrong guns when the UK begins to sell them off, while Cuba is purchased from Spain. Meanwhile in the United States, as a consequence of the war, West Point is shut down; there was a movement to do this IOTL due to the high number of ex-cadets that joined the CSA. By 1875, the C.S. Army has the better officer corps (The Citadel and VMI) as well as better trained infantry (Slave Patrol Militia system) and the more modern artillery due to the Armstrongs. The U.S. meanwhile has the larger overall force, in both Army and Navy, and the better small arms due to their larger industrial base. Anyway, in 1876 the Emperor Maxmillian dies without issue or a designated heir (He never had one IOTL and was likely infertile). The Mexican Liberals have long been defeated but the loss of the Monarchy leaves Mexico unstable and in a power vacuum. The Confederate States thus steps in and annexes the country, due to its ties to local strongmen like Santiago Vidaurri as well as heavy influence on the Mexican military and economy. This emerges as a campaign issue for the upcoming 1876 Election in the U.S. and the incumbent Presidency attempts to use it to his advantage, with this resulting in both nations blundering into a war. The U.S. has the numbers and logistics, so it gradually is able to advance into the CSA steadily but at great cost, due to the quality of the C.S. Army and its advantage in artillery. Ultimately, between the increased demands of the war on railway traffic and political dissatisfaction at the high casualties being taken for an unpopular cause, the 1877 Railway Strikes spark off and are worse than IOTL. With the collapse in their logistics system, the U.S. Army comes to a halt in its advance and the Confederates are able to encircle and destroy several elements in their own ATL Sedan. Adding to the woes of the American military is the need to divert formations to put down communes in cities like Pittsburgh, Chicago and others. In the end, Washington is forced to sue for peace, ending the war with the Confederate annexation of Mexico recognized. From there on, both the C.S. and the U.S. seek to achieve and maintain good ties, as the cost of war for both is recognized as just not worth it. So how did the CSA get Cuba, are Porto Rico, Guam and the Philippines still Spanish are did we see a joint USA/CSA war against Spain with Guam and the Philippines ending up becoming USA territories. Cuba was bought by the C.S.A. while Puerto Rico remained Spanish. I'd imagine the Philippines would probably end up going independent, perhaps under Japanese or British auspices, or perhaps be bought by Italy or Germany. |
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Post by EwellHolmes on May 21, 2020 0:45:45 GMT
I think EwellHolmes , is working from his posts in the underused 1000-1900 PODs, see page 12 of that thread. Not only does he assume a decisive victory for the CSA in late 1863 but also the later invasion of Cuba [and probably Puerto Rico] is successful because the 3rd Carlist war takes the same path as OTL, leading to Spain being in chaos and that no other power opposes the conquest. - Although in the above post he's changed that to the purchase of Cuba, from one or other Spanish faction? Furthermore he assumes that Maximilian's regime limps on without French support and when he dies at the age of 44 its without an heir and the south is able to annex it. This leads to war with the north but the latter is defeated. [He has some assumptions mentioned above which may not be accurate. Forces on a Slave Patrol Militia won't necessarily make good infantry in a full scale battle and the fact that the south boosts its artillery is an incentive for the north to do likewise.] Plus the liberals were still successfully resisting the imperials and once the French forces withdraw, in part due to American pressure and also to Napoleon's growing fears about Prussia - which in 1866 by its defeat of Austria and other German states became the primary challenge to the French position in Europe.
As I said in that thread I can't see it actually happening and if they do manage to take over most of Mexico without the latter receiving direct military support its likely to be a hell of a resource sink for them, probably leading to a collapse of the empire in a decade or two at most. Steve
I would assume that if Maximilian is like his brother he would live to the old age of 86. but then again he is emperor of Mexico so that takes a couple of years. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 21, 2020 8:19:35 GMT
So how did the CSA get Cuba, are Porto Rico, Guam and the Philippines still Spanish are did we see a joint USA/CSA war against Spain with Guam and the Philippines ending up becoming USA territories. Cuba was bought by the C.S.A. while Puerto Rico remained Spanish. I'd imagine the Philippines would probably end up going independent, perhaps under Japanese or British auspices, or perhaps be bought by Italy or Germany. Think Germany might buy the Philippines and Guam. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 21, 2020 9:57:24 GMT
Cuba was bought by the C.S.A. while Puerto Rico remained Spanish. I'd imagine the Philippines would probably end up going independent, perhaps under Japanese or British auspices, or perhaps be bought by Italy or Germany. Think Germany might buy the Philippines and Guam.
Well OTL they were looking for an empire after ~1880 and got a lot of Pacific islands from Spain so those could well be included in such a purchase. Which could make a difference to any WWI type conflict. Very likely Germany will have substantially more forces garrisoning the Philippines so that will definitely be target No. 1 for Japan as it lies directly across their LOC. Might also mean the [probably somewhat larger] Germany Pacific fleet is busy defending that rather than raiding across the Pacific.
Steve
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 21, 2020 9:58:36 GMT
I think you have a faulty link here as its only going to this page.
Steve
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 21, 2020 9:58:52 GMT
Think Germany might buy the Philippines and Guam. Well OTL they were looking for an empire after ~1880 and got a lot of Pacific islands from Spain so those could well be included in such a purchase. Which could make a difference to any WWI type conflict. Very likely Germany will have substantially more forces garrisoning the Philippines so that will definitely be target No. 1 for Japan as it lies directly across their LOC. Might also mean the [probably somewhat larger] Germany Pacific fleet is busy defending that rather than raiding across the Pacific. Steve
I can presume that Hawaii is either going to the British ore Japanese. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 21, 2020 10:07:49 GMT
Well OTL they were looking for an empire after ~1880 and got a lot of Pacific islands from Spain so those could well be included in such a purchase. Which could make a difference to any WWI type conflict. Very likely Germany will have substantially more forces garrisoning the Philippines so that will definitely be target No. 1 for Japan as it lies directly across their LOC. Might also mean the [probably somewhat larger] Germany Pacific fleet is busy defending that rather than raiding across the Pacific. Steve
I can presume that Hawaii is either going to the British ore Japanese.
The US might still have an interest as it was a coup by American planters - only from the north in that case  - that lead to the overthrow of the monarchy and its colonisation by the US. Although that was opposed by elements in the US including the President at the time of the coup. Might also depend on how the US develops. Is it more imperialist in response to its defeat in the civil war - like France after 1870 - or more introvert and looking largely at its unpopular southern neighbour.
However Britain is probably a good bet given the historical and trading links and its location. If Britain hasn't moved in - or been invited in - by the monarchy and a lot of Japanese have settled in the islands as OTL then Japan might make a move although probably not until the late 1890's as their reach is still fairly limited. A lot might depend on how the islands develop, as the OTL sugar plantations might not be developed. France also has an influence in the Pacific but probably wouldn't seek to go that far north.
The wild card might be a more expansionist CSA but its a long way from them even if they manage to occupy Mexico and likely to be unwelcome in the islands which would prompt a look for a protection, likely Britain but possibly the US.
Steve
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mobiyuz
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Post by mobiyuz on Aug 24, 2020 6:36:37 GMT
 It's common in alternate history to approach the idea of the Philippine Islands being part of the United States. Which makes sense, the Philippines were one of the best-known expressions of the American Empire, conquered from Spain in the Spanish-American War and being ruled by the United States from 1898 to 1946, during which time the Philippines were in effect an American colony. So, let's ponder what might need to happen. The most likely route I can imagine is in World War II, when US efforts to liberate the Philippines from Japanese control spur a large pro-American movement, and that after the war Philippine independence is delayed long enough for mainland China to fall to the PRC. This might set in motion a new chain of events where the Filipinos may fear the new communist power on their doorstep, and seek for integration into the United States.
In doing so, it's unlikely that the Philippines would be made into a single state. The 1948 census conducted by the new Filipino government indicated a population of 19,234,182, which would immediately make it the largest state not just by area but by population. Thus it's likely that the US would have divided the islands into at least three states (possibly more, but kept at just three here for simplicity) to lower the overall impact of the region as a single US state. This would have the effect of tripling the Filipino representation in the Senate, but representation in the House would remain mostly the same and would eventually be diluted somewhat by the post-war growth of states like California, Texas, and so on. Even then, the current population of the Philippines as of 2015 is more than 100 million, which would raise the current OTL US population by a full third. This would easily make Filipinos the largest minority group in the United States, though this could be counterbalanced in a situation where more Filipinos migrate to the continental United States, and more Anglo, Afro, and Asian-Americans move to the Philippines.
Realistically the United States likely wouldn't have annexed the islands not just for the logistical issues of having states on the other side of the largest ocean on Earth, or even for the political issues of having already promised the Philippines independence by that point, but also out of simple racism: the Jim Crow-era United States simply wouldn't like having a massive new minority population added to the country, and just wouldn't have wanted to annex it. If they were going to they'd likely have kept it as a territory, or multiple territories, the way that Puerto Rico or Guam or the Northern Mariana Islands are. Still, it's fun to think about, and it makes a good map. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Aug 24, 2020 6:43:05 GMT
It's common in alternate history to approach the idea of the Philippine Islands being part of the United States. Which makes sense, the Philippines were one of the best-known expressions of the American Empire, conquered from Spain in the Spanish-American War and being ruled by the United States from 1898 to 1946, during which time the Philippines were in effect an American colony. So, let's ponder what might need to happen. The most likely route I can imagine is in World War II, when US efforts to liberate the Philippines from Japanese control spur a large pro-American movement, and that after the war Philippine independence is delayed long enough for mainland China to fall to the PRC. This might set in motion a new chain of events where the Filipinos may fear the new communist power on their doorstep, and seek for integration into the United States.
In doing so, it's unlikely that the Philippines would be made into a single state. The 1948 census conducted by the new Filipino government indicated a population of 19,234,182, which would immediately make it the largest state not just by area but by population. Thus it's likely that the US would have divided the islands into at least three states (possibly more, but kept at just three here for simplicity) to lower the overall impact of the region as a single US state. This would have the effect of tripling the Filipino representation in the Senate, but representation in the House would remain mostly the same and would eventually be diluted somewhat by the post-war growth of states like California, Texas, and so on. Even then, the current population of the Philippines as of 2015 is more than 100 million, which would raise the current OTL US population by a full third. This would easily make Filipinos the largest minority group in the United States, though this could be counterbalanced in a situation where more Filipinos migrate to the continental United States, and more Anglo, Afro, and Asian-Americans move to the Philippines.
Realistically the United States likely wouldn't have annexed the islands not just for the logistical issues of having states on the other side of the largest ocean on Earth, or even for the political issues of having already promised the Philippines independence by that point, but also out of simple racism: the Jim Crow-era United States simply wouldn't like having a massive new minority population added to the country, and just wouldn't have wanted to annex it. If they were going to they'd likely have kept it as a territory, or multiple territories, the way that Puerto Rico or Guam or the Northern Mariana Islands are. Still, it's fun to think about, and it makes a good map. As a Filipino myself this is an interesting scenario. However, I would see Mindanao having a problem. It would probably be the first U.S. State to have an ongoing insurgency since the Moros would not want to be under the U.S. Their history dates back to 400 years of fighting the Spaniards, the Americans (1898-1913), the Japanese, and even their fellow countrymen. Mindanao will have this status as state with most Islamic practitioners, surpassing Dearborn, MI. |
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mobiyuz
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Post by mobiyuz on Aug 24, 2020 6:45:43 GMT
It's common in alternate history to approach the idea of the Philippine Islands being part of the United States. Which makes sense, the Philippines were one of the best-known expressions of the American Empire, conquered from Spain in the Spanish-American War and being ruled by the United States from 1898 to 1946, during which time the Philippines were in effect an American colony. So, let's ponder what might need to happen. The most likely route I can imagine is in World War II, when US efforts to liberate the Philippines from Japanese control spur a large pro-American movement, and that after the war Philippine independence is delayed long enough for mainland China to fall to the PRC. This might set in motion a new chain of events where the Filipinos may fear the new communist power on their doorstep, and seek for integration into the United States.
In doing so, it's unlikely that the Philippines would be made into a single state. The 1948 census conducted by the new Filipino government indicated a population of 19,234,182, which would immediately make it the largest state not just by area but by population. Thus it's likely that the US would have divided the islands into at least three states (possibly more, but kept at just three here for simplicity) to lower the overall impact of the region as a single US state. This would have the effect of tripling the Filipino representation in the Senate, but representation in the House would remain mostly the same and would eventually be diluted somewhat by the post-war growth of states like California, Texas, and so on. Even then, the current population of the Philippines as of 2015 is more than 100 million, which would raise the current OTL US population by a full third. This would easily make Filipinos the largest minority group in the United States, though this could be counterbalanced in a situation where more Filipinos migrate to the continental United States, and more Anglo, Afro, and Asian-Americans move to the Philippines.
Realistically the United States likely wouldn't have annexed the islands not just for the logistical issues of having states on the other side of the largest ocean on Earth, or even for the political issues of having already promised the Philippines independence by that point, but also out of simple racism: the Jim Crow-era United States simply wouldn't like having a massive new minority population added to the country, and just wouldn't have wanted to annex it. If they were going to they'd likely have kept it as a territory, or multiple territories, the way that Puerto Rico or Guam or the Northern Mariana Islands are. Still, it's fun to think about, and it makes a good map. As a Filipino myself this is an interesting scenario. However, I would see Mindanao having a problem. It would probably be the first U.S. State to have an ongoing insurgency since the Moros would not want to be under the U.S. Their history dates back to 400 years of fighting the Spaniards, the Americans (1898-1913), the Japanese, and even their fellow countrymen. Mindanao will have this status as state with most Islamic practitioners, surpassing Dearborn, MI. I'd like to think that in this timeline, the US' rule mellows things out and the Moros more easily adapt to being part of the US. That said, I might also find it interesting if the Moros had a state to themselves, becoming the only Muslim-majority state in the US and allowing them to have more control over their own affairs. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Aug 24, 2020 6:48:32 GMT
As a Filipino myself this is an interesting scenario. However, I would see Mindanao having a problem. It would probably be the first U.S. State to have an ongoing insurgency since the Moros would not want to be under the U.S. Their history dates back to 400 years of fighting the Spaniards, the Americans (1898-1913), the Japanese, and even their fellow countrymen. Mindanao will have this status as state with most Islamic practitioners, surpassing Dearborn, MI. I'd like to think that in this timeline, the US' rule mellows things out and the Moros more easily adapt to being part of the US. That said, I might also find it interesting if the Moros had a state to themselves, becoming the only Muslim-majority state in the US and allowing them to have more control over their own affairs. The thing is it would take an insane amount of compromise just to satisfy the Moros. Even in World War II during the Japanese occupation, one Moro leader boasted how glorious it was to fight the Japanese, Americans, and the Filipinos all at once. If ever there is an insurgency, this would be the first time in over a century where another state tries to secede from the union. |
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mobiyuz
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Post by mobiyuz on Sept 9, 2020 7:38:19 GMT
 With the 9th of September being the anniversary of California's creation as a state and me being the chauvinistic Californian that I am (not really), I figured I'd bang out a map like this. A brief description is included.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jan 6, 2021 10:27:39 GMT
From my DeviantArt: Alternate NATO members  For some reason the image is cut at the last part. Click the link to see the full graphic. |
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- that lead to the overthrow of the monarchy and its colonisation by the US. Although that was opposed by elements in the US including the President at the time of the coup. Might also depend on how the US develops. Is it more imperialist in response to its defeat in the civil war - like France after 1870 - or more introvert and looking largely at its unpopular southern neighbour.
