Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Oct 30, 2019 14:00:07 GMT
How would that come to be, exactly? Iraqi explosives experts were already working on implosion lenses in 1990, and Saddam’s ‘crash program’ would have delivered 25kg of highly enriched uranium (HEU) by the end of 1991 (15kg of UEU is necessary for an implosion device). He also still had 75kg of enriched uranium supplied by the French in the initial contract from the start of the Iraqi program. Uh-huh. So I suppose in that case, Saddam’s Iraq armed with WMDs will actually be justification for Western military action against the country itself ITTL. For another 20th Century PoD that also effects the Middle East, how about the ‘US Refuses Iranian Shah’ when he’s looking for cancer treatment? |
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 31, 2019 1:14:13 GMT
Iraqi explosives experts were already working on implosion lenses in 1990, and Saddam’s ‘crash program’ would have delivered 25kg of highly enriched uranium (HEU) by the end of 1991 (15kg of UEU is necessary for an implosion device). He also still had 75kg of enriched uranium supplied by the French in the initial contract from the start of the Iraqi program. Uh-huh. So I suppose in that case, Saddam’s Iraq armed with WMDs will actually be justification for Western military action against the country itself ITTL. For another 20th Century PoD that also effects the Middle East, how about the ‘US Refuses Iranian Shah’ when he’s looking for cancer treatment? Supposedly the Iranians were one vote away from choosing to attack the Soviet embassy as opposed to the American.... |
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Oct 31, 2019 4:01:21 GMT
Uh-huh. So I suppose in that case, Saddam’s Iraq armed with WMDs will actually be justification for Western military action against the country itself ITTL. For another 20th Century PoD that also effects the Middle East, how about the ‘US Refuses Iranian Shah’ when he’s looking for cancer treatment? Supposedly the Iranians were one vote away from choosing to attack the Soviet embassy as opposed to the American.... Well then, having the Iranians storm the Soviet embassy and take hostages might make quite a PoD in of itself. How would the Kremlin respond to its own version of the Iranian Hostage Crisis, I wonder? As another PoD I came up with just tonight, ‘ Blue Dog Dubya’—or, what if George W. Bush became a conservative Democrat, maybe even running for POTUS as one and governing accordingly if he ever entered office? At least, this all starts with the assumption that Bush doesn’t turn out unrecognizable from his counterpart IOTL. Maybe we could pair the above scenario with ‘Republican Barack Obama’ or Bill Clinton, if not make them their own standalone PoDs. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 31, 2019 17:03:57 GMT
Supposedly the Iranians were one vote away from choosing to attack the Soviet embassy as opposed to the American.... Well then, having the Iranians storm the Soviet embassy and take hostages might make quite a PoD in of itself. How would the Kremlin respond to its own version of the Iranian Hostage Crisis, I wonder?
I think in a word violently. In a 2nd word/expression, on a large scale.
Also although it would cause concern in the west the fact the Iranian regime, which had already behaved so badly, had attacked a diplomatic embassy would put them beyond the pale for many people.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Oct 31, 2019 17:10:57 GMT
Well then, having the Iranians storm the Soviet embassy and take hostages might make quite a PoD in of itself. How would the Kremlin respond to its own version of the Iranian Hostage Crisis, I wonder?
I think in a word violently. In a 2nd word/expression, on a large scale.
Also although it would cause concern in the west the fact the Iranian regime, which had already behaved so badly, had attacked a diplomatic embassy would put them beyond the pale for many people.
Since that’s the prediction, I take it that Iran was better off taking embassy hostages from a more negotiable US IOTL? Also, could this diplomatic crisis potentially instigate war in the Middle East—albeit launched by the USSR rather than its American counterpart? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 31, 2019 18:14:11 GMT
I think in a word violently. In a 2nd word/expression, on a large scale.
Also although it would cause concern in the west the fact the Iranian regime, which had already behaved so badly, had attacked a diplomatic embassy would put them beyond the pale for many people.
Since that’s the prediction, I take it that Iran was better off taking embassy hostages from a more negotiable US IOTL? Also, could this diplomatic crisis potentially instigate war in the Middle East—albeit launched by the USSR rather than its American counterpart?
a) Almost certainly. The Soviets would react very strong but probably not a full scale invasion however the Iranians are going to find themselves in the proverbial "between a rock and a hard place". Which would only get worse if they killed any hostages or made other attacks on Soviet interests. [Don't know if they might say attack other WP embassies or try terrorist attacks inside the USSR].
Also during the early years of the Islamic Republic there was strong opposition from left wing elements with quite a successful guerilla campaign killing a lot of authority figures that only really petered out after the Iraqi invasion. Here it might become unpopular if communism is seen as a greater threat to Iran or it could gain due to possibly a lot more support from the Soviets.
b) It could possibly lead to a wider war. If Iran is seriously destablished or say Iraq still invades but does better because of this disruption and Soviet aid then this possibly prompts western intervention in support of an alternative non-clerical faction that might occur. Or coupled with the already occurring Soviet occupation of Afghanistan if it does see Iran falling under Soviet control the western powers demand their withdrawal.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Oct 31, 2019 18:20:15 GMT
Since that’s the prediction, I take it that Iran was better off taking embassy hostages from a more negotiable US IOTL? Also, could this diplomatic crisis potentially instigate war in the Middle East—albeit launched by the USSR rather than its American counterpart?
a) Almost certainly. The Soviets would react very strong but probably not a full scale invasion however the Iranians are going to find themselves in the proverbial "between a rock and a hard place". Which would only get worse if they killed any hostages or made other attacks on Soviet interests. [Don't know if they might say attack other WP embassies or try terrorist attacks inside the USSR].
Also during the early years of the Islamic Republic there was strong opposition from left wing elements with quite a successful guerilla campaign killing a lot of authority figures that only really petered out after the Iraqi invasion. Here it might become unpopular if communism is seen as a greater threat to Iran or it could gain due to possibly a lot more support from the Soviets.
Mm'kay. I suppose that caving into Soviet outrage would make Iran look like its bark outweighs its bite to the point of weakness, which would embolden the USSR and other world powers to push it around (which sucks for maintaining its interests in the long haul). Additionally, with their communist foe's embassy getting stormed instead of their own like IOTL, how would the United States likely be affected ITTL? For one, I assume that President Carter suffers less public scrutiny over the crisis (though Stagflation likely still wracks his reputation nationwide). |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 31, 2019 18:43:00 GMT
a) Almost certainly. The Soviets would react very strong but probably not a full scale invasion however the Iranians are going to find themselves in the proverbial "between a rock and a hard place". Which would only get worse if they killed any hostages or made other attacks on Soviet interests. [Don't know if they might say attack other WP embassies or try terrorist attacks inside the USSR].
Also during the early years of the Islamic Republic there was strong opposition from left wing elements with quite a successful guerilla campaign killing a lot of authority figures that only really petered out after the Iraqi invasion. Here it might become unpopular if communism is seen as a greater threat to Iran or it could gain due to possibly a lot more support from the Soviets.
Mm'kay. I suppose that caving into Soviet outrage would make Iran look like its bark outweighs its bite to the point of weakness, which would embolden the USSR and other world powers to push it around (which sucks for maintaining its interests in the long haul). Additionally, with their communist foe's embassy getting stormed instead of their own like IOTL, how would the United States likely be affected ITTL? For one, I assume that President Carter suffers less public scrutiny over the crisis (though Stagflation likely still wracks his reputation nationwide).
Sorry, only answered part of your question then edited it and seen your replied while I was doing so.
I can't see the clerics caving in unless possibly Moscow is threatening nuclear strikes which I think would be highly unlikely. Even if there was a full scale Soviet invasion they would problem go down fighting and screaming insults at Moscow. It would be likely to be a very big resource sink for the Soviets if they did that and I suspect it would be unlikely. More likely there would be a lot of air attacks on targets and possibly some assassination attempts and support for the left wing insurgency that was active at this time. Likely to be bloody for Iran and messy for the Soviets.
Carter would do better but possibly not greatly so. His plain speaking and insistence in morality in politics had won him a fair amount of support initially but he was being seen as naive and too weak in foreign affairs so with the Soviets following up invading Afghanistan with possibly major interventions in Iran he would be vulnerable to attack by Reagan. He might not do as badly and could even win if the USSR got into a quagmire in Iran but suspect that is unlikely.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 1, 2019 14:33:44 GMT
'Bob Dole Wins The 1996 Presidential Election'.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 2, 2019 17:38:02 GMT
‘Earlier Acceptance Of Gay Marriage’, at least as it applies to America.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 4, 2019 2:03:27 GMT
'Longest Possible World War One'.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 4, 2019 16:08:55 GMT
'Longest Possible World War One'.
Well if you have the 1918 spring offensive somehow win in terms of forcing the collapse of the French army and possibly most of France occupied and then Italy decides to make peace with say an Anglo-American force holding on in say Brittany then the war might go on into 1919 or possibly even the following year. However Germany is already very much on its last legs, as are its allies so it would be a matter of time unless either the UK or US loses the will to fight on.
Possibly if by some means France was forced to collapse in 1916 and again Britain is reduced to a bridgehead, say in the channel region and/or Brittany and then the Germans accelerate the use of USW bringing the US into the war. With France largely out, although it could fight on from N Africa along with some forces in the allied bridgehead, hopefully Russia would switch more to the defensive which could see it lasting a good bit longer. In this case it could be a long time before Germany and its allies are defeated, possibly even 1920 or later. Going to be a lot more deaths I fear here.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 5, 2019 3:37:26 GMT
‘More Even Demographic Distribution Of Left/Right-Wing Voters’—i.e. conservative young people and minorities being roughly as numerous as their left-wing counterparts, and the same for senior citizens who identify as liberal.
This would probably belong in ‘Politics and Current Affairs’ more than anywhere else on Alternate Timelines, but I thought to introduce the idea here nonetheless.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 6, 2019 15:27:41 GMT
'More Popular George W. Bush'. His popularity may have skyrocketed after 9/11, but I imagine that was more due to the newfound crisis than the man himself doing such a bang-up job in the eyes of the American people.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 7, 2019 16:03:46 GMT
'Two Chinas--One Capitalist And The Other Communist'.
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