Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 9, 2019 1:15:43 GMT
'No Napoleon Bonaparte'.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 9, 2019 13:37:08 GMT
Again it depends on what butterflies occur to prevent his rise to power? The republic was in a mess by the time he seized control so if not him some other military strong man probably would have taken power. An alternative might not have been as great a general as Napoleon was in his prime so the resultant empire might not have lasted until 1814/15. On the other hand they might have escaped his hubris and hence established a smaller but lasting French empire.
Another alternative might be that the republic is crushed very early on, or simply never comes into being. In which case Napoleon either is a minor artillery officer in the French army or dies in some minor clash and is basically unknown to history.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 16, 2019 20:20:37 GMT
‘How Early Could American Slavery Realistically Be Abolished?’
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Nov 16, 2019 20:28:20 GMT
‘How Early Could American Slavery Realistically Be Abolished?’ A lot has to happen I think, most of that in the South I guess.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 16, 2019 21:49:18 GMT
‘How Early Could American Slavery Realistically Be Abolished?’ A lot has to happen I think, most of that in the South I guess. Probably. I'd ask about the viability of technological solutions in hastening slavery's abolition in the States, but fear that--depending on how much the precise execution backfires--we may have another cotton-gin scenario on our hands.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 17, 2019 11:27:38 GMT
A lot has to happen I think, most of that in the South I guess. Probably. I'd ask about the viability of technological solutions in hastening slavery's abolition in the States, but fear that--depending on how much the precise execution backfires--we may have another cotton-gin scenario on our hands.
Well that's one option that I've seen suggested. That slavery was actually declining in importance, even in the south, until the gin was invented so if that was delayed for even a couple of decades you might have seen the deep south settled by small farmers rather than large slave plantations and a continued decline in its importance. Not sure how viable this scenario is however.
Another possible option is that the US is faced with a clear threat and needs every available resource. The only at all likely option I could see here would be if Napoleon decided to keep to the Peace of Ameins, hence avoiding war with Britain, doesn't get bogged down in Haiti [or wins quickly there] and decided to keep Louisiana, which he would have grabbed back from Spain. In which case there is the possibility of a French-US war where the US would be faced with serious problems and if it offered freedom to any slave willing to fight against the French you could possibly see a very large free black population, even in the south and the resultant collapse of the plantation system.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 17, 2019 23:25:08 GMT
Probably. I'd ask about the viability of technological solutions in hastening slavery's abolition in the States, but fear that--depending on how much the precise execution backfires--we may have another cotton-gin scenario on our hands.
Well that's one option that I've seen suggested. That slavery was actually declining in importance, even in the south, until the gin was invented so if that was delayed for even a couple of decades you might have seen the deep south settled by small farmers rather than large slave plantations and a continued decline in its importance. Not sure how viable this scenario is however.
Another possible option is that the US is faced with a clear threat and needs every available resource. The only at all likely option I could see here would be if Napoleon decided to keep to the Peace of Ameins, hence avoiding war with Britain, doesn't get bogged down in Haiti [or wins quickly there] and decided to keep Louisiana, which he would have grabbed back from Spain. In which case there is the possibility of a French-US war where the US would be faced with serious problems and if it offered freedom to any slave willing to fight against the French you could possibly see a very large free black population, even in the south and the resultant collapse of the plantation system.
Alright, then; interesting means of abolishing slavery that you’ve just posited. I’m guessing that with the US government offering freedom to slaves who fight on their behalf, it’ll have to assert its authority much sooner than IOTL—leading to an earlier, en-masse government expansion in the ensuing decades? Plus, in the immediate time frame, might it have to compensate slave owners for the “liberation of their property”, via the Fifth Amendment of the US Constitution (I think)? If so, I’m unsure how much money Capitol Hill will have to cough up, or whether it can do so at the moment since America’s heading to war with Napoleonic France in its own backyard.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 18, 2019 12:08:09 GMT
Well that's one option that I've seen suggested. That slavery was actually declining in importance, even in the south, until the gin was invented so if that was delayed for even a couple of decades you might have seen the deep south settled by small farmers rather than large slave plantations and a continued decline in its importance. Not sure how viable this scenario is however.
Another possible option is that the US is faced with a clear threat and needs every available resource. The only at all likely option I could see here would be if Napoleon decided to keep to the Peace of Ameins, hence avoiding war with Britain, doesn't get bogged down in Haiti [or wins quickly there] and decided to keep Louisiana, which he would have grabbed back from Spain. In which case there is the possibility of a French-US war where the US would be faced with serious problems and if it offered freedom to any slave willing to fight against the French you could possibly see a very large free black population, even in the south and the resultant collapse of the plantation system.
Alright, then; interesting means of abolishing slavery that you’ve just posited. I’m guessing that with the US government offering freedom to slaves who fight on their behalf, it’ll have to assert its authority much sooner than IOTL—leading to an earlier, en-masse government expansion in the ensuing decades? Plus, in the immediate time frame, might it have to compensate slave owners for the “liberation of their property”, via the Fifth Amendment of the US Constitution (I think)? If so, I’m unsure how much money Capitol Hill will have to cough up, or whether it can do so at the moment since America’s heading to war with Napoleonic France in its own backyard.
In a crisis against the world's current No. 1 military power with bases [Louisiana] and a fleet able to both threaten their coastline and bring over and supply substantial army forces I think there would be a widespread acceptance that such a power would be required, albeit probably with a lot of questions post war, depending on how that conflict goes.
In terms of compensation I think that would be required. Depending on the state of the union after the war this could become an empty gesture, say if the currency is in the pits and hence former owners being given worthless government script simply because it can't afford anything else. Or given the imbalance of forces, assuming no one [cough Britain cough] comes to the US's aid or Napoleon isn't distracted by new wars in Europe you could end up with French annexations, especially of the western portions of the US i.e. those just to the east of the Mississippi which could make some of the issue moot. Albeit that I think there wasn't much white settlement [and hence black slaves] in that region at the time. We're also got the issue that Florida is still under Spanish control at this point and albeit with some resentment Spain is a French ally.
If the US does come out of it much better then its in a condition to pay such compensation although it might be a burden on the country and hence a source of resentment by the non slave holding majority. A lot might depend on how the freed slaves are treated as well. Could there be attempts to renege on the deal and re-enslave those freed under the agreement?
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 22, 2019 17:56:42 GMT
‘No Copyright Act of 1931’.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 23, 2019 19:10:04 GMT
‘No Copyright Act of 1931’. Sorry, I meant 1831. Of course 1931 PoDs don’t belong here . Anyways, ‘No FDR’. As in, he’s never born (which would’ve taken place in 1882, if I recall correctly).
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 24, 2019 10:57:27 GMT
‘No Copyright Act of 1931’. Sorry, I meant 1831. Of course 1931 PoDs don’t belong here . Anyways, ‘No FDR’. As in, he’s never born (which would’ve taken place in 1882, if I recall correctly).
Well he was a semi-influential figure, secretary of the navy for instance in WWI so there would be butterfly, some possibly significant from long before the depression. However if the depression did still occur and someone didn't replace him as an advocate for Keynesian policies then opinions differ but I suspect it could be very bad for the US and for the world as a whole.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 25, 2019 15:32:29 GMT
'No Jim Crow Laws'. Maybe that'd be an ASB premise in the midst of an embittered South after the Civil War that lets the Ku Klux Klan run rampant, but I thought to introduce the idea here nonetheless.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 25, 2019 19:46:52 GMT
'No Jim Crow Laws'. Maybe that'd be an ASB premise in the midst of an embittered South after the Civil War that lets the Ku Klux Klan run rampant, but I thought to introduce the idea here nonetheless.
Unfortunately the only at all likely way I could see for something like that would be if [virtually] all the black population of the south had been killed or forcibly expelled. I.e. such laws wouldn't be needed because there was no black population to control.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 25, 2019 20:18:50 GMT
'No Jim Crow Laws'. Maybe that'd be an ASB premise in the midst of an embittered South after the Civil War that lets the Ku Klux Klan run rampant, but I thought to introduce the idea here nonetheless.
Unfortunately the only at all likely way I could see for something like that would be if [virtually] all the black population of the south had been killed or forcibly expelled. I.e. such laws wouldn't be needed because there was no black population to control. Uh-huh. So, the South goes all Third Reich on it’s black population, while the North sits back and effectively does nothing (which in of itself sounds ASB)? Wow. Although, weren’t firms doing business with newly freed blacks after the Civil War, only for politicians to pass Segregationist laws that inhibited this exchange? That’s what I recall hearing once, though not from precisely where or when.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 25, 2019 21:40:59 GMT
Unfortunately the only at all likely way I could see for something like that would be if [virtually] all the black population of the south had been killed or forcibly expelled. I.e. such laws wouldn't be needed because there was no black population to control. Uh-huh. So, the South goes all Third Reich on it’s black population, while the North sits back and effectively does nothing (which in of itself sounds ASB)? Wow. Although, weren’t firms doing business with newly freed blacks after the Civil War, only for politicians to pass Segregationist laws that inhibited this exchange? That’s what I recall hearing once, though not from precisely where or when.
I wouldn't say that would occur, or that the north would do nothing. Just that's I suspect its the only way, unless you continue to have northern control of the south as during construction lasting much longer, to avoid something like Jim Crow developing as the white majority in the south regained political control of their lands and sought to cement that and their 'revenge' by suppressing any black political power.
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