Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 25, 2019 22:44:46 GMT
Uh-huh. So, the South goes all Third Reich on it’s black population, while the North sits back and effectively does nothing (which in of itself sounds ASB)? Wow. Although, weren’t firms doing business with newly freed blacks after the Civil War, only for politicians to pass Segregationist laws that inhibited this exchange? That’s what I recall hearing once, though not from precisely where or when.
I wouldn't say that would occur, or that the north would do nothing. Just that's I suspect its the only way, unless you continue to have northern control of the south as during construction lasting much longer, to avoid something like Jim Crow developing as the white majority in the south regained political control of their lands and sought to cement that and their 'revenge' by suppressing any black political power.
Okay, then. So, as such, Washington flexes it muscles and implements firmer, more dedicated Reconstruction efforts to more thoroughly reform the South in the post-Civil War era and beyond? If so, I am somewhat concerned that the perceived iron grip of the North might instill further resentment and a notion of lost freedom within white southerners to the extent that maybe the nutters among them take out their anger on vulnerable, still-disenfranchised black folks and other such minority communities anyway. That sort of derangement might claim more than a few abolitionist and anti-racist white folks as well, I fear. Then again, hate crimes of that nature occurred in the Deep South without such harsh Reconstruction efforts. So whether we can expect that to be worse ITTL or not, I don’t know off the top of my head.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 26, 2019 11:00:18 GMT
I wouldn't say that would occur, or that the north would do nothing. Just that's I suspect its the only way, unless you continue to have northern control of the south as during construction lasting much longer, to avoid something like Jim Crow developing as the white majority in the south regained political control of their lands and sought to cement that and their 'revenge' by suppressing any black political power.
Okay, then. So, as such, Washington flexes it muscles and implements firmer, more dedicated Reconstruction efforts to more thoroughly reform the South in the post-Civil War era and beyond? If so, I am somewhat concerned that the perceived iron grip of the North might instill further resentment and a notion of lost freedom within white southerners to the extent that maybe the nutters among them take out their anger on vulnerable, still-disenfranchised black folks and other such minority communities anyway. That sort of derangement might claim more than a few abolitionist and anti-racist white folks as well, I fear. Then again, hate crimes of that nature occurred in the Deep South without such harsh Reconstruction efforts. So whether we can expect that to be worse ITTL or not, I don’t know off the top of my head.
I think your bound to have some problems plus such a prolonged move would be costly and politically unpopular in much of the north, not only because of the racism there as well. However if prolong, say for a generation or more and with a lot of effort on education its possible that you might get a fair number of southern whites to accept free and empowered blacks. Probably not as equals for a long while but as fellow citizens. [Actually thinking about it a prolonged occupation that's seen as economically damaging and affects the welfare of the blacks as well might actually mean something of a coming together of the two against the common 'enemy' but I must admit such a scenario would be unlikely].
Another option, although it could be explosive might be if the victorious union set aside a 'homeland' for the freed blacks, to geographically separate them from the whites. Where this would be, probably in one or more southern states, I don't know. Or just possibly, as some northerners had I think suggested a 'return to Africa' movement but less brutal than what a resentful south might impose.
Basically I doubt there's any way to significant reduce either the duration or depth of the period of race hatred, possibly especially in the south. Human nature unfortunately doesn't seem to work that way. Racism and the fact the blacks will be a fairly obvious target for southern whites resentful of their defeat and determined to regain their power, at least in their our states seems to make it a certainty there will be some sort of repression when the whites regain full political power. Especially since by this time Darwin and Wallace had made public their ideas on evolution and it was so quickly perverted by assorted evil groups. Ironic in that the white south was such an hostile opponent of an idea that they actually based their world view on.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 27, 2019 15:01:07 GMT
‘Thomas Aquinas Keeps Writing’.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Dec 1, 2019 21:41:31 GMT
'US Stays Out Of WW1'.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 2, 2019 19:56:14 GMT
Would depend on the exact circumstances but probably either a stalemate peace or a narrower allied victory. - Thinking that since the allied powers supplied the vast bulk of their own munitions and can get food and other such materials from their colonies and allies overseas a big cut in imports from the US once Britain runs out of liquid funds won't make a massive difference although lack of US forces in the final months of the war might make for a somewhat longer conflict. Possibly also greater instability in much of central and eastern Europe afterwards with more communist unrest.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Dec 2, 2019 20:36:56 GMT
Would depend on the exact circumstances but probably either a stalemate peace or a narrower allied victory. - Thinking that since the allied powers supplied the vast bulk of their own munitions and can get food and other such materials from their colonies and allies overseas a big cut in imports from the US once Britain runs out of liquid funds won't make a massive difference although lack of US forces in the final months of the war might make for a somewhat longer conflict. Possibly also greater instability in much of central and eastern Europe afterwards with more communist unrest.
Interesting predictions. As much as I'd like to discuss this PoD further, though, I just realized that I shared it in the ' Before 1900' section of the forum instead of after!
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Dec 5, 2019 3:55:35 GMT
‘Tsar Alexander II Lives’. As in, the 1881 assassination attempt on him fails and he makes it out of the incident unscathed.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 5, 2019 11:23:09 GMT
‘Tsar Alexander II Lives’. As in, the 1881 assassination attempt on him fails and he makes it out of the incident unscathed.
Well as usual it would probably depend on the circumstances. However a quick look at his wiki entry, see Alexander_II_of_Russia, it might not be too great an affect. He was 62 so might not have lasted much longer and seems to have become more reactionary after an earlier assassination attempt in 1866 so another one could push him a bit further towards reaction. Possibly an intreresting butterfly might be if the 1866 attempt hadn't occurred for some reason. Although seeing the section titled "reaction after 1866" there were a number of such attempts.
Also it mentions that he was going for some more reforms when he was killed in 1881 to be replaced by his reactionary son. As such possibly his last years if the 1881 attack had failed/not occurred there would have been a relaxation of the autocracy, albeit probably only until he's succeeded by his son.
Anyway an interesting idea. If he lasted longer you could see some relatively minor changes but they could have larger impacts further down the line.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Dec 8, 2019 22:34:50 GMT
Christian II of Denmark becoming Holy Roman Emperor may be a bit too common, right? I want to see the effects on both the HRE and Denmark-Norway from that personal union in terms of demographics.
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Post by stevep on Dec 9, 2019 16:52:12 GMT
Christian II of Denmark becoming Holy Roman Emperor may be a bit too common, right? I want to see the effects on both the HRE and Denmark-Norway from that personal union in terms of demographics.
I don't know about common a TL as never really knew much about him before. Checking his Wiki entry, Christian_II_of_Denmark, it seems unlikely. For one thing he seemed rather erratic, including switching between Catholic and Lutheran and back again. Also his desire to have a more centralised power, albeit with more support for common people and bourgeoise, if only as a counter to the aristocracy and higher clerics seems like a recipe for conflict and disaster even if he had avoided his errors in Sweden for instance. If his long time lover, Dyveke Sigbritsdatter hadn't died it 1517 she might have moderated his behaviour somewhat but her continued influence would have caused a serious split with Charles V as Christian was married to an Hapsburg princess and his continuation of his relationship with Dyyeke was already souring this marriage.
As such he would have had to move a lot more carefully I suspect to maintain the Kalmar Union without a lot of continued conflict and I doubt if he would have been in a position to make a serious challenge for the HRE title. Were you thinking of him getting it instead of Charles V or at some later stage? The Hapsburg's were already gripping the title quite firmly and I suspect, even with an Hapsburg wife he would have been seen as too much of a rival while becoming HRE when the vast bulk of his territories were outside its boundaries could have also caused tensions, both within the empire and Scandinavia.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Dec 13, 2019 5:44:26 GMT
Christian II of Denmark becoming Holy Roman Emperor may be a bit too common, right? I want to see the effects on both the HRE and Denmark-Norway from that personal union in terms of demographics.
I don't know about common a TL as never really knew much about him before. Checking his Wiki entry, Christian_II_of_Denmark, it seems unlikely. For one thing he seemed rather erratic, including switching between Catholic and Lutheran and back again. Also his desire to have a more centralised power, albeit with more support for common people and bourgeoise, if only as a counter to the aristocracy and higher clerics seems like a recipe for conflict and disaster even if he had avoided his errors in Sweden for instance. If his long time lover, Dyveke Sigbritsdatter hadn't died it 1517 she might have moderated his behaviour somewhat but her continued influence would have caused a serious split with Charles V as Christian was married to an Hapsburg princess and his continuation of his relationship with Dyyeke was already souring this marriage.
As such he would have had to move a lot more carefully I suspect to maintain the Kalmar Union without a lot of continued conflict and I doubt if he would have been in a position to make a serious challenge for the HRE title. Were you thinking of him getting it instead of Charles V or at some later stage? The Hapsburg's were already gripping the title quite firmly and I suspect, even with an Hapsburg wife he would have been seen as too much of a rival while becoming HRE when the vast bulk of his territories were outside its boundaries could have also caused tensions, both within the empire and Scandinavia.
Would a different spouse for Christian II of Denmark have turned out differently for said King? Although if we could somehow butterfly his affair with Dyyeke (perhaps through a different Danish foreign policy that would have made them turn eastwards or even towards England or Scotland), we wouldn't have the whole friction with the future Charles V of the Holy Roman Empire.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 13, 2019 12:08:33 GMT
I don't know about common a TL as never really knew much about him before. Checking his Wiki entry, Christian_II_of_Denmark, it seems unlikely. For one thing he seemed rather erratic, including switching between Catholic and Lutheran and back again. Also his desire to have a more centralised power, albeit with more support for common people and bourgeoise, if only as a counter to the aristocracy and higher clerics seems like a recipe for conflict and disaster even if he had avoided his errors in Sweden for instance. If his long time lover, Dyveke Sigbritsdatter hadn't died it 1517 she might have moderated his behaviour somewhat but her continued influence would have caused a serious split with Charles V as Christian was married to an Hapsburg princess and his continuation of his relationship with Dyyeke was already souring this marriage.
As such he would have had to move a lot more carefully I suspect to maintain the Kalmar Union without a lot of continued conflict and I doubt if he would have been in a position to make a serious challenge for the HRE title. Were you thinking of him getting it instead of Charles V or at some later stage? The Hapsburg's were already gripping the title quite firmly and I suspect, even with an Hapsburg wife he would have been seen as too much of a rival while becoming HRE when the vast bulk of his territories were outside its boundaries could have also caused tensions, both within the empire and Scandinavia.
Would a different spouse for Christian II of Denmark have turned out differently for said King? Although if we could somehow butterfly his affair with Dyyeke (perhaps through a different Danish foreign policy that would have made them turn eastwards or even towards England or Scotland), we wouldn't have the whole friction with the future Charles V of the Holy Roman Empire.
I suspect the best bet might be for him being willing to compromise and rule within the traditional constrains of the limited monarchies that existed in Scandinavia at that time. It would have left him weaker in terms of being reliant on the good rule of the assorted ruling elites but without the continued unrest that marked his reign, Probably still some problems in Sweden because of the latter's national identity but should have a decent chance of winning the majority of Swedes over to the continuation of the Kalmar Union. Unrest there, especially if led by assorted nobles with claims to the throne could give him a good excuse for political and economic reform there, which with skilled handling might also be spread over time over the rest of the greater kingdom. This might give a power base to undermine the nobles, although whether it would still lead to he making a push for absolute monarchy or he goes for something like the system that emerged in Britain after 1688 - using that as the example I know best - but with more actual power for the monarch.
Frankly I can't see him becoming HRE unless you manage to butterfly the rise of the Hapsburg's to such a level of dominance inside Germany - which could cause other problems with the Turks driving up through Hungary. Scandinavia if stabalised and prosperous would be a good power base but its almost totally outside the HRE. Plus there is the question of the Reformation that starts in 1517. Which way does Charles go? If he goes Protestant and supports those nobles in Germany taking that stance and can take his people with him then he could emerge as the leading power in N Germany but would that then mean seeking to include Scandinavia inside the HRE or some northern successor? This might be better for developing its commercial and economic power and would fit in with support of a growing merchant class. However its likely to split the HRE permanently. If he goes Catholic and makes it stick he could emerge as the defender of the church and Papacy and gain a lot of power but its likely to be very bloody suppressing the assorted reformers and even if he manages to supplant the Hapsburgs he's going to replace them pretty quickly as well in terms of being the prime rival of the Papacy. Also its likely to slow economic development while those unhappy with his rule are going to look toward Lutheran ideas as an argument to centralise around.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Jan 1, 2020 11:04:12 GMT
Entente lose the war by the Summer of 1917.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 1, 2020 11:05:41 GMT
Entente lose the war by the Summer of 1917. Only way that can happen if Germany does not piss of the United States with its submarine warfare and Mexico debacle.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Jan 1, 2020 11:06:30 GMT
Mexico and Cuba could be acquired if the Southern Whigs followed their instincts and rejected seeking Kansas in favor of pursuing Cuba through the Black Warrior Affair.
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