Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 1, 2019 1:53:05 GMT
‘US Economy Without Tariffs’.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 1, 2019 10:58:32 GMT
‘US Economy Without Tariffs’.
Going to be somewhat slower industrial development and the country might stay more agricultural longer as European exports are going to have less problem from high tariffs meaning infant US industries take longer to get to the point where they are competitive. Especially assuming that as OTL Britain is the only other country that stays free trade in an otherwise protectionist world. Probably at some stages large scale industrial production will start off in the US, given the growing home market and the sheer availability of raw materials there. However going to be somewhat later. This will however mean a bit more money in the hands of the ordinary American in the shorter term as they get cheaper industrial goods. [In the longer term a smaller industrial base will however mean less exports and also less industrial workers, some of which will be on higher wages compared to agricultural ones.]
The other impact is what does the US government do for funds as for a lot of the period until 1945 a large proportion of their revenue, sometimes a very high one, was from tariffs on imports. Either its going to be a lot smaller or its going to have to find money another way.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 1, 2019 12:39:53 GMT
‘US Economy Without Tariffs’.
Going to be somewhat slower industrial development and the country might stay more agricultural longer as European exports are going to have less problem from high tariffs meaning infant US industries take longer to get to the point where they are competitive. Especially assuming that as OTL Britain is the only other country that stays free trade in an otherwise protectionist world. Probably at some stages large scale industrial production will start off in the US, given the growing home market and the sheer availability of raw materials there. However going to be somewhat later. This will however mean a bit more money in the hands of the ordinary American in the shorter term as they get cheaper industrial goods. [In the longer term a smaller industrial base will however mean less exports and also less industrial workers, some of which will be on higher wages compared to agricultural ones.]
The other impact is what does the US government do for funds as for a lot of the period until 1945 a large proportion of their revenue, sometimes a very high one, was from tariffs on imports. Either its going to be a lot smaller or its going to have to find money another way.
Alright. I assume that even though this may not be the case now, tariffs still had their place then? Moreover, I’m wondering if there’s any way(s)—however unlikely—that America could’ve still become a comparable industrial superpower with mostly free trade in place throughout its existence. Or, would that be an ASB premise?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 1, 2019 17:58:34 GMT
Going to be somewhat slower industrial development and the country might stay more agricultural longer as European exports are going to have less problem from high tariffs meaning infant US industries take longer to get to the point where they are competitive. Especially assuming that as OTL Britain is the only other country that stays free trade in an otherwise protectionist world. Probably at some stages large scale industrial production will start off in the US, given the growing home market and the sheer availability of raw materials there. However going to be somewhat later. This will however mean a bit more money in the hands of the ordinary American in the shorter term as they get cheaper industrial goods. [In the longer term a smaller industrial base will however mean less exports and also less industrial workers, some of which will be on higher wages compared to agricultural ones.]
The other impact is what does the US government do for funds as for a lot of the period until 1945 a large proportion of their revenue, sometimes a very high one, was from tariffs on imports. Either its going to be a lot smaller or its going to have to find money another way.
Alright. I assume that even though this may not be the case now, tariffs still had their place then? Moreover, I’m wondering if there’s any way(s)—however unlikely—that America could’ve still become a comparable industrial superpower with mostly free trade in place throughout its existence. Or, would that be an ASB premise?
Well the US, baring some serious disaster, has a hell of a lot of resources, a pretty well educated population and relatively low needs for military spending. So it will have the basis for an economic super-power. Plus its likely that at some time Europe, its main rival, will have at least one almighty war that is likely to seriously disrupt its economy and give the US a big boost. However as long as the US is free trade in a protectionist world, like the UK OTL its going to seriously hamper its economic development. To really become the sort of titan it can it will have to either introduce tariffs or other restrictions itself or persuade the bulk of the rest of the developed world to lower/remove their own tariffs.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 1, 2019 19:46:13 GMT
Alright. I assume that even though this may not be the case now, tariffs still had their place then? Moreover, I’m wondering if there’s any way(s)—however unlikely—that America could’ve still become a comparable industrial superpower with mostly free trade in place throughout its existence. Or, would that be an ASB premise?
Well the US, baring some serious disaster, has a hell of a lot of resources, a pretty well educated population and relatively low needs for military spending. So it will have the basis for an economic super-power. Plus its likely that at some time Europe, its main rival, will have at least one almighty war that is likely to seriously disrupt its economy and give the US a big boost. However as long as the US is free trade in a protectionist world, like the UK OTL its going to seriously hamper its economic development. To really become the sort of titan it can it will have to either introduce tariffs or other restrictions itself or persuade the bulk of the rest of the developed world to lower/remove their own tariffs.
Mm'kay. So, as one (probably ASB) solution, make the developed world of the time free trade-friendly and America could still become an economic colossus like IOTL?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 2, 2019 13:35:04 GMT
Well the US, baring some serious disaster, has a hell of a lot of resources, a pretty well educated population and relatively low needs for military spending. So it will have the basis for an economic super-power. Plus its likely that at some time Europe, its main rival, will have at least one almighty war that is likely to seriously disrupt its economy and give the US a big boost. However as long as the US is free trade in a protectionist world, like the UK OTL its going to seriously hamper its economic development. To really become the sort of titan it can it will have to either introduce tariffs or other restrictions itself or persuade the bulk of the rest of the developed world to lower/remove their own tariffs.
Mm'kay. So, as one (probably ASB) solution, make the developed world of the time free trade-friendly and America could still become an economic colossus like IOTL?
Yes. It would take a bit longer as free trade tends to advantage the established powers but sooner or later the sheer economic potential of the US, unless it suffers serious long term problems due to the butterflies, is likely to make it one of the biggest players.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 2, 2019 13:47:14 GMT
Mm'kay. So, as one (probably ASB) solution, make the developed world of the time free trade-friendly and America could still become an economic colossus like IOTL?
Yes. It would take a bit longer as free trade tends to advantage the established powers but sooner or later the sheer economic potential of the US, unless it suffers serious long term problems due to the butterflies, is likely to make it one of the biggest players.
Mm’kay. As much as I’d like to explore the development and implications of a ‘No-Tariff US’ (or at least, a consistently low-tariff one), the rest of that conversation is probably best left to its own thread. That said, the notion of ‘Global Free Trade Pre-1900’ does sound like quite a PoD in of itself. Since nations would rely on one another to keep their economies from suffering, could there be less war (though surely some measure of spats and trade disputes), as one example?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 2, 2019 14:22:59 GMT
Yes. It would take a bit longer as free trade tends to advantage the established powers but sooner or later the sheer economic potential of the US, unless it suffers serious long term problems due to the butterflies, is likely to make it one of the biggest players.
Mm’kay. As much as I’d like to explore the development and implications of a ‘No-Tariff US’ (or at least, a consistently low-tariff one), the rest of that conversation is probably best left to its own thread. That said, the notion of ‘Global Free Trade Pre-1900’ does sound like quite a PoD in of itself. Since nations would rely on one another to keep their economies from suffering, could there be less war (though surely some measure of spats and trade disputes), as one example?
I have seen it argued that the world was probably freer of barrier to trade - despite widespread protectionism - and more interconnected in the period just before WWI than any other time in history excepting possibly the last couple of decades. Some of the people who were arguing that any war would be short were doing so on the basis that everybody depended so much on trade with what became hostile nations it simply couldn't last long without world-wide economic collapse or at least widespread depression and economic shortages.
As such its unlikely in itself to make the world markedly safer. There is the possibility, with two or more nations accusing each other of cheating - like currently between China and the US - it could heighten tensions as compared to a protectionist world where restrictions are largely in the open.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 4, 2019 14:05:33 GMT
‘Largest Possible USA’.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 4, 2019 16:11:07 GMT
Look at some of Eurofed's TLs as he like wanking it. Often has virtually all the American continent along with Australasia and chunks of E Asia. Not very realistic but possible.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 4, 2019 16:14:36 GMT
What if the Chartists gain serious political support and there is much greater political and social reform in Britain in the 1st half of the 19th century. Possibly say Princess Charlotte survived childbirth in 1817 and succeeds her father George IV in 1830 as she seemed to favour reform.
Depending on the circumstances Britain could have a lot more internal development earlier which could mean less interest in expanding the empire and lower migration from the country, although its still likely to be considerable.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 4, 2019 16:42:14 GMT
Reminded by the entry in the events this day thread but what if the Rebellion_of_Tupac_Amaru_II, had succeeded? Say he heads north as suggested by his wife, capturing Cuzco before the Spanish can be reinforced. Possibly some rebel turns out to be a brilliant leader? If it lasts long enough Britain might offer aid as a way of countering Spain's efforts in supporting the US rebels.
Not sure how this could end up but if say OTL Peru/Bolivia becomes an independent mainly native state which gets trade with other powers and manages to maintain itself. Quite possibly then picking up some other areas, such as part/all of Chile and Ecuador when Spanish rule collapses.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 5, 2019 12:51:34 GMT
Another idea just occurred to me from Lordroel's events this day. What if the Hindu ruler Hem Chandra has won the Second_Battle_of_Panipat? Either by him winning the battle directly, which was hard fought and his forces still had an edge when he was knocked unconcious by an arrow and his army panicked or possibly better the earlier capture of his artillery train a few days before.
This would snuff out the attempted revival of the Mughal Empire's attempted revival under Akbar and lead, at least for a while to a Hindu ruled empire in most of northern India. Which could have some dramatic impacts on the history of the country.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 5, 2019 14:21:37 GMT
‘Earlier Industrial Revolution’.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Nov 7, 2019 1:45:17 GMT
'Kinder Gilded Age'. I dunno how nice or generous the general public can get it in a society currently going through mass-industrialization without already-established powers to help it out first, but compared to how OTL went in this regard, well...
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