Dan
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Post by Dan on Jul 15, 2019 6:51:42 GMT
A thought struck me. Imagine, if after years of negotiation, the Southern states issue their notice of Secession. Lincoln and his cabinet refer back to the letters of his predecessors*, take a look at the economics of the Southern States, the potential economic costs of a civil war and, (in diplomatic language), says "OK, good luck with that". Once the initial "WFT?" moment has passed, what does the future for hold for Lincoln, the United and Confederated States of America? *Taken from Wikipedia: |
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mobiyuz
Chief petty officer
I have returned.
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Post by mobiyuz on Jul 15, 2019 6:59:42 GMT
Well, you've basically broken the Federal Government's power forever. The precedent has been set of "If you don't like what Washington is doing, then you can leave and we won't do anything." Just imagine New England seceding over trade policies, or California seceding over political differences. Basically, you've now set the stage for the total dissolution of the United States within, say, 50 years or so because participation in the Union is no longer mandatory. Not only that, it's easy, all you have to do is just tell Washington 'we're out', and that's it.
In essence, this raises far more problems than it would otherwise solve and have Lincoln go down in history as the worst president ever.
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Dan
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Post by Dan on Jul 15, 2019 8:51:38 GMT
Well, you've basically broken the Federal Government's power forever. The precedent has been set of "If you don't like what Washington is doing, then you can leave and we won't do anything." Just imagine New England seceding over trade policies, or California seceding over political differences. Basically, you've now set the stage for the total dissolution of the United States within, say, 50 years or so because participation in the Union is no longer mandatory. Not only that, it's easy, all you have to do is just tell Washington 'we're out', and that's it. In essence, this raises far more problems than it would otherwise solve and have Lincoln go down in history as the worst president ever. And likely the last too. That's a thought. Would the United States end up as more of a federation of nation states? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 15, 2019 15:12:09 GMT
It would probably depend on the exact circumstances but there is that danger. However if it was a case that instead of declaring their independence a number of states - say the 7 that initially seceded - had put in a legal claim that they had the right to secede. This would probably be bitterly opposed by Lincoln and a lot of elements but if they went about this peacefully you could see either a decision, say in the Supreme Court that they had the right to leave or say Lincoln decides to use force but many other elements, including more states than the 4 that did OTL threatened to either secede or support the seceding states if he did that. In that case Lincoln would probably be forced to accept secession but the union could then, probably fairly quickly, close whatever loophole the Supreme Court found in supporting the seceding states.
This by either banning secession totally or setting up a formal but very complex process for it could make the barriers for secession so high that its unlikely that other states would be tempted. Another incentive for this might well be if the CSA fairly quickly ran into problems, economic, political or even military if they did something rash, like seek to seize Cuba or some other region in the Caribbean or elsewhere to expand slavery.
Note that while I abhor slavery I'm less than happy with the morality of current US situation, which was reinforced/established by the civil war that no people even with a distinct identity are never allowed to leave the union regardless of circumstances on the grounds that their forefathers in the 1780's basically chained them to the US for eternity.
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James G
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Post by James G on Jul 15, 2019 15:42:32 GMT
The United States were only sixty plus years old as a nation at this point. They'd started out as independent states and while the union was quick, that was never a given either at the time: only in hindsight it was necessary.
A split in 1861 ~ is possible. There would easily be that feeling that 'they will come running back soon and we can set the terms for re-entry' in DC. This could be correct or incorrect in time.
Should the southern states go, I could foresee many problems. Other states could use the threat of leaving too to blackmail Washington. There would be cases as well of the split with the South leading to further, unforeseen splits later on elsewhere though. United, the US stood strong against outside influences but if split, there could be attempts by European colonial powers to see what bits they could influence, even annex if the situation was right.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 15, 2019 15:53:32 GMT
The United States were only sixty plus years old as a nation at this point. They'd started out as independent states and while the union was quick, that was never a given either at the time: only in hindsight it was necessary. A split in 1861 ~ is possible. There would easily be that feeling that 'they will come running back soon and we can set the terms for re-entry' in DC. This could be correct or incorrect in time. Should the southern states go, I could foresee many problems. Other states could use the threat of leaving too to blackmail Washington. There would be cases as well of the split with the South leading to further, unforeseen splits later on elsewhere though. United, the US stood strong against outside influences but if split, there could be attempts by European colonial powers to see what bits they could influence, even annex if the situation was right.
I doubt that there would be direct colonial encroachments on former US territories. Apart from anything else Britain is likely to oppose that given its interests in peace and good trading opportunities in the region and given its industrial and naval superiority at the time its not likely to be crossed. There could be indirect influence and also more direct involvement elsewhere in the Americas such as Napoleon III's advanture in Mexico but their likely to face problems. The only really change of direct pressure on some part of the original US would be if some part crossed a red line with Britain, say an element becomes politically unstable and some element makes an attack on British North America or as I said the south makes an attempt to expand slavery.
However the balance between Washington and the states is likely to shift towards the latter or at the very least the greater control that Washington established in the civil war and afterwards would be drastically reduced. Although there is the possibility that in response to the loss of the old south [or a good chunk of it] there is support overall for a stronger central government to prevent future such events. Especially since many of the strongest supporters of states rights have now left the union.
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James G
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Post by James G on Jul 29, 2019 19:36:43 GMT
Let us suppose the Confederate states go.
Does the United States of America - what is left - keep expanding? Alaska and Hawaii both became US territories after the POD here. The Philippines, the Marinas, Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands are more places I can think of that the US received in later years too.
Or does the country focus inward after a split like this?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 29, 2019 22:24:53 GMT
Let us suppose the Confederate states go. Does the United States of America - what is left - keep expanding? Alaska and Hawaii both became US territories after the POD here. The Philippines, the Marinas, Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands are more places I can think of that the US received in later years too. Or does the country focus inward after a split like this?
It would probably depend on the exact circumstances. Could go either way or somewhere in between. Another reason why Britain took such a tough line on the Trent Incident was that some US politicians including William Steward, later Lincoln's Secretary of state and the man who later organised the purchase of Alaska had been calling for the fulfilling of plans for manifest destiny and the occupation of British North America - what's now Canada. There was some concern in London that the union might seek to invade the north to 'compensate for the loss of the southern slave states. As such there's a potential that a resentful north seeks territorial gains. Or they might as you say turn even more introvert and inwards. Quite possibly there would be groups urging both paths and it would depend on which proved the most attractive. Most likely somewhere in the middle and varying over time.
Would also depend on how many states leave - possibly only the initial 7 if they manage to leave peacefully, and under what circumstances. As well as how they fair and relations between them and the north. Also what happens with slavery in the remaining union? Likely not to last long but Lincoln OTL argued that the war wasn't about slavery but to prevent secession. While the rump slave states are a much smaller group there might be a fear that moving against them would prompt more secession bids so it could last for a while.
Especially if the south took over all the federal bases in the new confederacy would the union have any bases in the Caribbean? If it doesn't does it get involved in a war with Spain over Cuba as OTL? If not them forget about not only Puerto Rico but also the Philippines. Which could make a big difference if/when Japan states to emerge as a regional power - presuming it still outperforms China.
You might have a period of introspection and uncertainty then as the union industrialises, which is likely to be largely unaffected but possibly slowed a little, the US looks outwards for spheres of influence so you could have it ending up much like OTL in terms of overseas possessions by ~1900 or even more so.
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