AHC: German or Dutch as the Lingua Franca of the World

I wasn't aware of the survival of Prince Alfonso's PoD (dynastic events tend to confuse me) but indeed it seems to work fine to unite the three Iberian crowns, much like the marriage of Ferdinand and Isabella the elder a generation earlier but on a bigger scale. Changing Isabella of Aragon's eating habits does not seem that difficult a change to enact in AH terms, just expose her to slightly different experiences or a little random variance in her genetic background.

As it concerns the administrative framework of a centralized HRE, rather than importing a close copy of the Iberian system, I think it would be easier and more natural for the federalized HRE to keep building on the Imperial Circles system, which was already into place thanks to the 1495-1512 reforms to organize taxation, the raising of troops, and representation in the Reichstag and the Reichskammergericht. The territorial division was similar to what you proposed, but the IC would work better for the kind of federal union that a centralized HRE would likely become than the Crown system. They just needed to complete the system by creating the Bohemian, Swiss, and Italian Circles. Of course, the HRE would also need a good degree of political consolidation with a mediatization and secularization reform. And the Electoral College should also be reformed to align its system with the Imperial Circles, and give equal representation in the election to all Imperial territories, rather than giving a vote to an arbitrary number of princes (a few of them going to disappear anyway because of the secularization-mediatization reform).

Italy's political status was in flux in this period precisely because of the Italian Wars. De jure Northern Italy remained a part of the HRE, even if de facto Imperial authority had fallen into decline. The Spanish-Imperial alliance would need to agree on a proper sphere of influence division of their interests in Italy if they don't form a personal union, but this seems easy to do. A compromise that makes a lot of geopolitical sense and had historical justification is North Italy to the HRE, South Italy to Spain. What was otwerwise needed to reabsorb North Italy into the HRE was to expel French influence from the peninsula and put down the opposition of particularist Italian states to centralization. Since the Spanish-Austrian coalition won the Italian Wars IOTL, it seems quite doable. A few Italian states aligned with them, such as Genoa, Mantua, Ferrara, and Medici Tuscany. The Savoy were opportunists that could be bought with a few territorial gains. The Aviz-Habsburg would need to defeat the Pope (done IOTL and necessary anyway if they want to implement religious reform to reverse the Reformation), the Republics of Florence and Siena (done IOTL; the Medici showed they were willing to cooperate with Habsburg overlordship if they got feudal rule of Tuscany), and Venice (likely the toughest nut but doable since it almost happened IOTL). If the allies win the Italian Wars just like OTL, they are going to get control of Milan and Naples. The latter in all likelihood becomes a possession of Spain as usual, about the former Austria might pick direct rule or hand it over to a sympathetic prince.

If the HRE does manage to tear a few choice bits (Royal Prussia seems the natural top of the list, closely followed by Greater Poland) off the PLC because the former centralizes and the latter suffers its usual feudal anarchy decline, it may indeed form a Prussian Circle with Royal Prussia. In the bout of attempted religious reform that followed the Western Schism, there was a serious drive to heal the Latin-Greek schism that got close to success in the Council of Florence. Papal supremacy was one of the main stumblinb blocks. If reform of the Western Church largely tones it down, and the reunion attempt takes wing again as part of the process, it may indeed work out, especially in the Orthodox areas free from Turkish rule that would oppose it. The other Filioque issue of contention can in all likelihood be overcome with a little theological and lingustic fiddling, if there is good will.

In all likelihood, a centralized HRE that keeps control of the Low Countries and North Italy would work in strategic terms much like France and Spain, a hybrid land/sea power. Comparison with the French and Spanish cases shows the HRE could indeed afford to balance its efforts between the two areas and be a top-tier power in both. Historical evidence also shows in these conditions colonial and naval competition with Britain was far from unwinnable, since Spain and France came fairly close at times to overwhelm British naval power, invade the British Isles, kick the British out of North America and/or India, and strangle the British Empire in its cradle. If France and/or Spain got close to doing it, Germany on steroids can do it, esp. since the strategic situations would be rather similar. Please do not romanticize British naval power as invincible or Pax Britannica as inevitable. If things had gotten differently in 1588, 1779, or 1805, history would have sung a very different tune.

stevep : In the case of the Spanish-Imperial alliance being able to dictate onerous peace terms to defeated France, such terms for the HRE might indeed involve the Duchy of Burgundy and Provence, which had been historically part of the Empire and were asked IOTL after the capture of Francis I. Other possible options are Champagne, which would fit nicely with the rest of the Burgundian inheritance and which Charles the Bold had tried to acquire from Louis XI in the previous century, and the French portion of Flanders, which IOTL were added to the Spanish Netherlands at the end of the Italian Wars. As it concerns the Spanish portion of the booty, natural options seem Bearn and at least the western-southern parts of Guyenne and Languedoc. Of course a centralized HRE is to some degree going to keep its historical expansion vectors. This may involve grabbing at least a few pieces of the PLC if opportunity dawns, as well as keeping and reinforcing its personal-union bond with Hungary, and helping it fight off the Ottomans and expand in the Balkans. On the other hand, assimilation of the Low Countries and North Italy is going to change the strategic and economic equation to some important degree.

We may certainly expect the HRE to do more or less what the Dutch and the Venetians did, only with at least half the whole weight of the HRE thrown behind the effort (with a few exceptions: Dutch seizure of Portuguese colonies isn't going to happen if the Spanish-Imperial alliance stands). In addition to this, the very involvement in the Balkans and the strategic partnership with Spain is going to cause a substantial degree of Spanish-Imperial cooperation against the Ottomans and the Barbary states. At the very least, this is going to cause a much accelerated and more successful pace of European colonization of North Africa, with the region experiencing an extension of the Reconquista, and of expulsion of the Ottomans from the Balkans, well before Islam gets a real chance of taking root in the region. Depending on the military success of the alliance, this may stay limited to Northwest Africa and the Balkans, or get extended to a serious bid to destroy the Ottoman Empire and conquer Anatolia, the Levant, and Egypt, quite possibly with Russia getting involved and picking a share of the spoils. The Byzantine Empire and/or the Crusader states may well get resurrected in some form.

If this happens, it is certainly going to suck to be Ottoman or Muslim in the Mediterranean, but live by the sword, die by the sword. Islam was never the innocent victim of European colonialism in its millennial conflict with Christianity. Barbary states piracy, Ottoman invasions, and Tartar raiding dealt a helluva lot of suffering to European peoples, and the Muslim states indulged into enslavement, second-class-status oppression, and genocide of Christians and other religious minorities up to the moment they were destroyed.

Even if the excessive fasting had a religious element, you can still steer her away from doing it with the right stimulus: e.g. by giving her a spiritual counselor that advises her against it. Even in this period, there were plenty of people in the Church that frowned upon excessive ascetic practices, esp. if they were in apparent contrast with the natural duties of your God-given lot, such as being royalty or nobility and ensuring the continuation of your dynasty. I am confident Alfonso can find a sufficiently charismatic priest that can talk Isabella into beng mindful of the baby, since that is worthier in the eyes of God than her fasting.


No doubt, establishment of a Kaiserreich-style federal level of centralization is going to require some military coercion of the particularist princes, even if it need not be something as prolonged and destructive as the 30YW. Which, by the way, occurred the way it did because of a lot concurrent factors that need not apply here: Spain is going to be stronger, France weaker because of its own religious strife and distracted by a multi-front struggle, religious antagonism is not going to so entrenched if a solution is provided that can reconciliate moderate Catholics and Protestants, Sweden is not going to intervene, the Dutch rebellion won't happen, the opposition to the Emperor need not be so widespread if a solution to the religious dispute is on the table. Since, surprising as it may look to you, not all princes turned hostile to the Emperor and not all that did so because they were diehard particularists. There were the ones that could be won over by the right concessions, or by a different religious policy.

Moreover, once the new system is in place, a lot of actors are going to discover they can live and thrive with it, proto-German nationalism and the neo-Roman Imperial prestige of the revitalized HRE are going to support the new status quo, and there is going plenty of common enemies for a long time. France and the Ottomans are the obvious candidates.


And as usual, I think you seriously overestimate difficulties. The Italian states that opposed Habsburg hegemony *lost* the Italian Wars and the region became its playgound for the next century and half. The Medici went along with the new status quo as long as it lasted, in practice it was not much different from them being incorporated in the HRE and getting a seat in the Italian Circle, the Diet, and the Electoral College. Charles V made war on the Pope when it allied with France, defeated him, sacked Rome, and took him captive. It was a big failure of him not to exploit the opportunity, but he certainly could have used it to force the Pope to summon a Council to implement religious reform, since the Reformation caused a lot of alarm across Christendom, and there was a lot of potential support among moderates on the two sides for solution that would prevent strife and solve the issues that had caused the crisis. And many supported the Reformation because they were genuinely concerned with the sorry state of the Church, or saw something worthwhile in the new faith, not necessarily because they were particularists itching for an excuse to cut down Imperial power.


Which other powers? The scenario assumes the Imperial-Spanish partnership endures at least as long as OTL, so Spain is a reliable ally. France and the Ottomans are going to be implacable enemies regardless of whether the HRE centralized or not, or the Spanish-Imperial alliance goes on the offensive or not. England may indeed be an interesting wild card. The PLC is increasingly getting paralyzed by feudal anarchy. Russia has its own issues to mind, what happens in Germany is still Beyond its horizon. It is still too early for Sweden to project much beyond its borders.


As usual, you use 'autocratic' in an incomprehensible way. The Western Church might perhaps be described this way under the Popes, but certainly not the Orthodox Church after the fall of Constantinople. Who would be its supposed all-powerful head? The dead and buried Byzantine Emperors? The Patriarch of Constantinople, at best a primus inter pares, at worst a thrall of the Sultan? Given what I know about Ottoman (mis)rule of the Balkans, I assume you seriously overestimate the degree of collaborationist support they got in the region. Sure, there was the occasional noble or prince that sided with the Turks out of opportunism, but they were far from the majority or plurality. Anyway, a reform of the Church that basically reabsorbs the moderate wing of the Reformation and heals most of the Latin-Greek schism is going to remove a lot of the religious reasons why Christians might prefer Turkish rule. It is not going to look like a ploy of the western Emperor, or the King of Spain for that matter, to expand their power because power in the Church is going to end up mostly decentralized and under the control of local bishops and their monarchs. It is going to look a lot like the Anglican or Orthodox system. Papal supremacy is going to go away. We may also assume as the Christian strategic counteroffensive takes wing, certain conquered areas are going to come under the direct rule of the warring powers, others are set up as clients/allies. E.g. Spain is almost certainly going to rule Northwest Africa as a colony, and the parts of the Balkans closest to Hungary are to be absorbed by it, but I doubt liberated Greece or Bulgaria is going to be anything else than a restored ERE.


A Spain that keeps the Iberian Union and avoids its OTL decline and/or a centralized HRE that keeps its historical best borders can be just as formidable as England/Britain at its pre-1815 best if not more so, and if they industrialize, even later. I am not necessarily implying that a either or both of them landing a victorious army in the British Isles means Britain is crushed and subjugated for all time. But, like the close-call cases I quoted, it would certainly enable an onerous peace, such as letting Scotland and Ireland go, or being kicked out of North America and India, that would cripple the growth of the British Empire a great way. Look at what it meant for France to lose the struggle for North America and India to Britain, and then imagine that outcome being reversed, in favor of another seafaring great power.


Nahh, it just means the great powers game adjusts its balance to account for a new top-tier player, and continues as usual. Early unification of Germany is nowhere disruptive enough to overturn it. The HRE at its historical biggest was not yet strong enough to conquer and dominate everyone else. That would at least require reunification of the Carolingian core.


They are going to have to fight the Turks anyway, only now they are going to be in position to do it more effectively than OTL, harnessing the resources of Germany, Italy, Spain, and Hungary. Which refugees? I can't see anybody going the Turks' way, apart from the North African Muslims fleeing the Spanish Reconquista on steroids. Ottoman rule of the Balkans would not have lasted long enough to create a significant Muslim community in the region.


<Shrug> I was just talking about an hypothetical worst-case scenario for France, such as it might happen if it suffers a military catastrophe and is torn by civil strife, not necessarily what was going to happen. As far as it concerns the scenario's purpose, it already gets fulfilled if France stays locked in its 15th century borders. Having said that, I would not deem an outlandish outcome if it loses a few border territories, such as just one or two of the areas I quoted. It would be an interesting geopolitical reversal of what happened IOTL to the HRE.


ROTFL about the Turks about offering a better deal to Christians than Imperial hegemony. About what? Having second-class status and paying extra taxes? Having their fittest and most attractive sons and daughters being seized to be slave soldiers and sex slaves? Suffering the recurrent bout of rape, loot, and massacre? Sure, there might be the occasional boyar that for whatever reason thinks it is better to kneel to the Sultan than to the Emperor, or the diehard Calvinist or ultra-Orthodox that wishes to flee mainstream reunion of Christianity no matter what, but they are not certainly to be that many. Sure, kicking the Ottomans out of the Balkans and North Africa is going to be the work of generations if not centuries for the Spanish-Imperial alliance, and see periods of stalemate and occasional setbacks. In this it is not going to be radically different from OTL, except it is going to start sooner, finish much sooner (say by 1700 instead of 1913), and extend to places (such as North Africa) Islam was able to keep IOTL. The process, however, can only accelerate the decay of the Ottoman Empire.


Your usual vision of history as a manichean eternal struggle between tyrannical imperialists and heroic particularists that invariably dooms all ATL cases of the former to failure due to widespread resistance of the latter. Yet, IOTL a lot of empires rose, overcame opposition, and thrived for long all the time since the Bronze Age, and the hyper-Balkanized status quo of tribal, feudal, and city-states anarchy you seem to find natural was pushed back into the corners of the world, only to make temporary comebacks in periods of collapse. Either we assume all the OTL cases of successful empires and large states have been special cases, or there is something seriously wrong with this vision of history. Anyway, by now I know it is wasted time and effort to argue against when your arguments start to wax lyrical about "everybody and his dog rise up to destroy the evil empire".



And your vision of history seems to require everybody to think and act like the cardboard characters of Star Wars or LotR.

The French example could be duplicated with any other nation, resulting in their language becoming the global lingua franca. In the case of Germany, the German language would be mostly used for business and industry, as well as science and diplomacy. Soft power might also work as well.

North America would be a natural place to build a German-speaking colony, although in a continued Spanish-Imperial alliance, they might simply split the New World into which spheres of influence would belong to whom. At the very least, the Imperials might try to integrate the various Native American tribes and Mesoamerican statelets once they meet first for the first time.

It might also not be far fetched for a Dutch or German equivalent to Macau or Hong Kong to arise, though their own analogue may resemble the Dutch trading port of Dejima in Japan. At first it might be done (Imperial colonization, that is) by Dutch entrepreneurs, but eventually it would become a state sponsored project. Alternatively, an Indian equivalent to Macau and Hong Kong might also be established as well. A similar case to Goa comes to mind.

In the long run, I could see a possible geopolitical Game of Thrones-esque competition between the Spanish-Imperial alliance against the behemoth that would become Russia, allied with the other Asian powers. Or the Imperials find a way to include Muscovy/Russia into its system of alliance.

Soft power would be a much more preferable option than hard power through conquest of portions of Eastern Europe. However, with the PoD of Afonso de Aviz surviving (Isabella of Aragon's first husband), you might have a different kind of Treaty of Torsedillas where you have the spheres of influence demarcated between the Spaniards and the Holy Roman Empire, all worked out with the blessings of the Papacy (in this case France won't care about an alternate Torsedillas if they could take advantage of it). If that would be impossible, then the HRE would play a similar role to the Dutch in which they would build an Asian empire or an Australian Empire in this case.

In terms of the heavy weights in Europe, it might be a personal union of the PLC and Sweden that might provide the third anchor to the Spanish-Imperial partnership, and it would be in the interests of the HRE to have a stable eastern border through Poland, or they would find themselves having to put up with the emergence of Russia. In this scenario we may still have a Deluge like conflict, only it would be aimed at Russia instead of Poland. Expect a huge loss for Russia in this scenario, which they may end up being forced to focus their energies on Asian expansion.

You mean too weak to expand westwards for Russia. As for Afonso, I would say this guy here:

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afonso,_Prince_of_Portugal