stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 13, 2022 19:59:48 GMT
1) I'm thinking siege rather than storm. If Franco is won over then the Gibraltar straits can be closed by air power isolating both Gib and Malta. Agree that a para landing would be a disaster and Germany would have to supply additional troops - carried by Italian ships for any landing. There are not enough runways in region. Ground establishment for air power is poor and the road net, itself, would still have to support a siege train, security forces to maintain the supply route and the possibility of Anglo-Portuguese and anti-Franco elements sabotaging the German effort. Whether storm assault, which is what Felix was, since the Germans were a bit short of siege guns, or a siege, which the Germans were not trained to do, it would be logistically extremely difficult. Supply and sustain by sea would be much simpler. And there is the Portugal option. Franco had seen what happened to Spain when the Americans had muscled her in the Spanish American War. He was born in Ferrol in 1892 and was six when the Americans wiped out the Spanish navy and virtually destroyed the Spanish Tercio in Cuba through sea-power (9 ships and 20,000 mostly poorly trained troops.) He grew up and attended the cadet schools, where the veterans of that war drove the lessons of the Spanish American War home harshly to the new generation of Spanish officer cadets. These lessons included that corrupt Spanish government mismanagement and inept military braggadocio and refusal to be realistic about the world as it really was, had been the reasons the Spanish "professionals" had lost to the American "amateurs". It cost them an empire. The rump empire left could have gone down the drain, but Franco's generation played the French like violins and managed a good performance against the very tough Rifs. So he was a "professional / professional", a battle tested general, who had also won an impossible civil war, who was not about to listen to some hysterical Austrian draft dodger and trench messenger runner try to explain to him how Felix would be an easy operation. Franco knew the logistics and operational problems much better than Hitler. I do not see over the beach. They have to take Alexandria and put it back into service after the British wreck it. Just where are the Italians going to get those resources. And as I wrote, the Italians only have lift for a battalion. Their over the beach was non-existent. With reference to Gibraltar, what siege guns? With reference to Malta, what resources? How do the Axis stop the "Club Runs"? Even if one argues logistics, the British win the contest.
We're at slight cross purpose here. In 1) I was replying to your comments about Malta. Probably the mention of closing the Gib straits threw you as your talking about Franco and also a siege train which wouldn't be applicable for Malta. However closing the straits if you got Franco on board would be very useful as it prevents aid from the western Med and also removes Gib as a base for the RN.
If the Italians had that little lift capacity for an amphibious landing it would make things very difficult for either Malta or somewhere east of Alex other than twisting Vichy's arm about Syria.
In terms of siege guns I thought the Germans had some capacity. Seen it mentioned in AH stories where Hitler does get Franco on side and also historically for the taking of Sevastopol with the idea they and Manstein's force then due to head north for Leningrad.
By club runs do you mean convoys to Malta? Would be a hell of a lot more difficult without Gib available as a base for organising such operations and with everything having to come directly from Britain. [Even if Gib was in British hands for a possibly extended period its not really going to be available for operating ships from there as they would be far too vulnerable to air attack.
As I say I see all those as unlikely events for the reasons both of us have stated. I can't see Hitler ignoring the Soviets and also him pressing Franco into the Axis camp would be difficult.
Steve
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Mar 13, 2022 23:36:47 GMT
We're at slight cross purpose here. In 1) I was replying to your comments about Malta. Probably the mention of closing the Gib straits threw you as your talking about Franco and also a siege train which wouldn't be applicable for Malta. However closing the straits if you got Franco on board would be very useful as it prevents aid from the western Med and also removes Gib as a base for the RN. 1. Before Malta can be assaulted in any fashion, Gibraltar has to be taken. The b does not come before a. So I discussed a. first and in detail. If the Italians had that little lift capacity for an amphibious landing it would make things very difficult for either Malta or somewhere east of Alex other than twisting Vichy's arm about Syria. How do the Italians get past Cunningham? In terms of siege guns I thought the Germans had some capacity. Seen it mentioned in AH stories where Hitler does get Franco on side and also historically for the taking of Sevastopol with the idea they and Manstein's force then due to head north for Leningrad. The siege guns for Barbarossa were not that many. I think Krupp had about twenty naval type railroad guns to hand and they had to make additional guns like the "giant cannon" intended for the Maginot Line and which was used instead for the Siege of Sevastopol because it was not ready in 1940 or 1941. There were only two of the Schwerer Gustavs built. There were never more than 40 of the other 38cm K-series railroad guns either. (By contrast the British had a dozen such type railroad car mounted guns in storage. The US had about 100.) NONE of the German RR guns could be transported on the dilapidated Spanish railroads. Franco knew that logistical and material fact. By club runs do you mean convoys to Malta? Would be a hell of a lot more difficult without Gib available as a base for organising such operations and with everything having to come directly from Britain. [Even if Gib was in British hands for a possibly extended period its not really going to be available for operating ships from there as they would be far too vulnerable to air attack. That was what the British historians called the Malta supply convoys.  If the Axis could not stop "Pedestal" or even the Wasp convoys, they are not blockading Malta. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 14, 2022 15:24:27 GMT
We're at slight cross purpose here. In 1) I was replying to your comments about Malta. Probably the mention of closing the Gib straits threw you as your talking about Franco and also a siege train which wouldn't be applicable for Malta. However closing the straits if you got Franco on board would be very useful as it prevents aid from the western Med and also removes Gib as a base for the RN. 1. Before Malta can be assaulted in any fashion, Gibraltar has to be taken. The b does not come before a. So I discussed a. first and in detail. If the Italians had that little lift capacity for an amphibious landing it would make things very difficult for either Malta or somewhere east of Alex other than twisting Vichy's arm about Syria. How do the Italians get past Cunningham? In terms of siege guns I thought the Germans had some capacity. Seen it mentioned in AH stories where Hitler does get Franco on side and also historically for the taking of Sevastopol with the idea they and Manstein's force then due to head north for Leningrad. The siege guns for Barbarossa were not that many. I think Krupp had about twenty naval type railroad guns to hand and they had to make additional guns like the "giant cannon" intended for the Maginot Line and which was used instead for the Siege of Sevastopol because it was not ready in 1940 or 1941. There were only two of the Schwerer Gustavs built. There were never more than 40 of the other 38cm K-series railroad guns either. (By contrast the British had a dozen such type railroad car mounted guns in storage. The US had about 100.) NONE of the German RR guns could be transported on the dilapidated Spanish railroads. Franco knew that logistical and material fact. By club runs do you mean convoys to Malta? Would be a hell of a lot more difficult without Gib available as a base for organising such operations and with everything having to come directly from Britain. [Even if Gib was in British hands for a possibly extended period its not really going to be available for operating ships from there as they would be far too vulnerable to air attack. That was what the British historians called the Malta supply convoys. If the Axis could not stop "Pedestal" or even the Wasp convoys, they are not blockading Malta.
1) Might differ there but then I'm not talking primarily of assaulting either of them, at least by ground forces.
2) Its risky but they have potential air cover much of the way and it depends on the relative states of the naval forces. Do agree its unlikely.
3) I have seen it argued otherwise but will take your word for it.
4) The Malta convoys were bloody difficult and costly operations OTL. Without the use of Gibraltar - even if it hasn't fallen its not going to be of much use - such operations are going to be far harder and more costly. Damaged ships now have to go all the way to the UK and you can't have convoys gathering and being refueled at Gib. Plus they can come under attack from Axis air in the Iberian peninsula. - Since for those operations we're got to assume that Franco is persuaded to join the Axis.
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Mar 14, 2022 15:40:16 GMT
Damaged ships now have to go all the way to the UK and you can't have convoys gathering and being refueled at Gib. Plus they can come under attack from Axis air in the Iberian peninsula. - Since for those operations we're got to assume that Franco is persuaded to join the Axis. 1. The damaged British ships in question made it to Bremerton, Washington and Norfolk, Virginia. Some went through the Suez Canal. Banged up French ships after Torch wound up in those US yards. 2) Its risky but they have potential air cover much of the way and it depends on the relative states of the naval forces. Do agree its unlikely. 2. If one means Cunningham can be held off by LF X, then that is not the Andrew Cunningham who replaced Sir Dudley as First Sea Lord and CNS when that venerable gentleman passed on. 3) I have seen it argued otherwise but will take your word for it. See map.  That is 1958. No viable railroad line approaches Gibraltar from Seville, one notices? |
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Mar 14, 2022 15:41:41 GMT
4) The Malta convoys were bloody difficult and costly operations OTL. Without the use of Gibraltar - even if it hasn't fallen its not going to be of much use - such operations are going to be far harder and more costly. Damaged ships now have to go all the way to the UK and you can't have convoys gathering and being refueled at Gib. Plus they can come under attack from Axis air in the Iberian peninsula. - Since for those operations we're got to assume that Franco is persuaded to join the Axis. See my comment subsumed under 1. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 15, 2022 12:25:21 GMT
4) The Malta convoys were bloody difficult and costly operations OTL. Without the use of Gibraltar - even if it hasn't fallen its not going to be of much use - such operations are going to be far harder and more costly. Damaged ships now have to go all the way to the UK and you can't have convoys gathering and being refueled at Gib. Plus they can come under attack from Axis air in the Iberian peninsula. - Since for those operations we're got to assume that Franco is persuaded to join the Axis. See my comment subsumed under 1.
As I pointed out TTL we don't have Gib as a functioning base in which forces can gather or be patched up. Nor air cover, both defensive and scouting, from it.
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Mar 15, 2022 17:27:21 GMT
As I pointed out TTL we don't have Gib as a functioning base in which forces can gather or be patched up. Nor air cover, both defensive and scouting, from it. And as I pointed out, with the Bremerton, Washington historic example of that British battleship, there is the Suez Canal.Malta was not relieved from Gibraltar. Ultimately that relief actually occurred when the Desert / 8th Army* moved west from Egypt and the Alexandria squadron moved west with it. Club Runs from Gibraltar were only one direction and at best temporary respites. True strategy would have pushed west from Suez. |
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oscssw
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Post by oscssw on Mar 15, 2022 18:19:37 GMT
Sorry I missed this before. There are likely to be heavy losses to light naval vessels, either sunk or damaged, which after Norway and Dunkirk are already in desperately short supply so the U boat's 1st happy time could be longer and even more damaging. It might however make it recognised as the most crucial front after the defence of Britain itself but it would take time to build up the necessary resources, tactics, doctrine and equipment to win the Atlantic Battle.
I doubt that Hitler will take the Med option. He desperately wants to defeat the Soviets for various reasons and even OTL used the excuse that the reason Britain hadn't made peace was that it hoped to secure Soviet aid.
However if he did pressurizing Franco it might work, or offering Gib and French colonies - which won't go down very well with Vichy however - but Franco knows how fragile the Spanish economy is after the civil war and also how much he's hated by many of the people and a German presence in Spain is likely to led to Spain being further torn apart by resistance and German retaliation. If he was to take the bait then Gib will fall, although not without a fight and Britain had plans to take the Canary's which would give an alternative base for trade protection in the eastern Atlantic but of cause mean we would be cut off from the Med.
This would mean the loss of Malta and with the bloodbath in the invasion the WDF [Western Desert Force] very likely won't get the reinforcements that made Operation Compass practical, at least on the same time period. However the issue of logistics is so crucial in N Africa with pretty much no railways between Tunisia and the Nile Valley and few and isolated ports. This would make it very difficult to support significantly greater Axis forces in the region, especially in its western reaches and El Alamein makes a very difficult point to bypass.
If they did Egypt would fall but forces could fall back to the canal, block that and still get supplies via the Red Sea, which is the route the vast majority of supplies and reinforcements came, albeit that Axis forces established in Egypt would make this more difficult. For the Germans to break through this - possibly by landings further north assuming the Med fleet was forces to retreat to the Red Sea - they could then pressurize Vichy into allowing use of bases in Syria but its still a fair distance to Iraq and then very rugged terrain to get through N Iran towards Baku, with extremely long and poor supply lines. They could head south towards Kuwait and the Gulf but while the terrain is open the distances are again long while British supply lines continually shorten.
Plus all this would take time, probably at least a year. Which gives the USSR time to re-equip and to a degree at least recover from the disaster that was the purge of the military. The operations in the Med wouldn't require massive land forces but a lot of support would be needed and the conditions would result in much wear and tear and its likely to strain the Luftwaffe even further.
Steve all good points especially the logistic realities. You have explained the difficulties well but you have not rejected the possibility the axis could pull it off with full control of the supply routes from Italy to Tunisia, Libya and eventually Egypt. I keep thinking about the utterly essential nature of Malta as a base to strike at the Axis supply lines. Taking Gib ensures Malta is taken and Taking Malta makes taking Crete possible which means the RN has to abandon the entire Med.
Churchill considered Malta as vital to reducing the effectiveness of the enemy's North African push and his Naval and Army commanders agreed. Rommel, (a pretty competent soldier) along with Field Marshal Kesselring, Admiral Raeder, and Mussolini all advised Hitler a decisive Egypt-Suez offensive should prioritize Malta and Crete, to secure supply lines to Africa, and then take Egypt, the Suez Canal, and the Mideast oil beyond.
The second point I question is this strategy would benefit USSR re-equipment and recovery from the purge of Red Army Senior officers. Up until Hitler launched Barbarossa Stalin, the only Soviet whose opinion mattered, did not insist on a crash, all out program to re-equip the Red army. I also doubt a year's delay would do much to make up for the purge of the Red army leadership. It takes a lot longer than a year or two of peacetime to produce competent replacements for senior officers. Intense combat greatly accelerates identifying the incompetent and producing their far more capable replacements.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 16, 2022 19:11:04 GMT
As I pointed out TTL we don't have Gib as a functioning base in which forces can gather or be patched up. Nor air cover, both defensive and scouting, from it. And as I pointed out, with the Bremerton, Washington historic example of that British battleship, there is the Suez Canal.Malta was not relieved from Gibraltar. Ultimately that relief actually occurred when the Desert / 8th Army* moved west from Egypt and the Alexandria squadron moved west with it. Club Runs from Gibraltar were only one direction and at best temporary respites. True strategy would have pushed west from Suez.
There is but that's a much longer way both for supplies to reach Malta via the Cape and for damaged ships to limp home for repair.
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Mar 16, 2022 21:46:23 GMT
There is but that's a much longer way both for supplies to reach Malta via the Cape and for damaged ships to limp home for repair.
Yes, there is. But that is exactly what historically happened, now, is it not? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 18, 2022 14:57:19 GMT
There is but that's a much longer way both for supplies to reach Malta via the Cape and for damaged ships to limp home for repair.
Yes, there is. But that is exactly what historically happened, now, is it not?
No. A fair amount of supplies came to Malta from the west, especially a/c, either off carriers which sailed from Gib or in some cases directly from the base IIRC. This is going to be more difficult and costly now if not actually impossible. As such Malta and its abilities to oppose Axis supply routes let alone defend itself will be reduced.
I still see it as being virtually impossible for the Axis to take Egypt unless Britain does something really stupid but with the assumption that Spain joins the Axis then both Gib and Malta will ultimately fall.
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Mar 20, 2022 20:51:20 GMT
No. A fair amount of supplies came to Malta from the west, especially a/c, either off carriers which sailed from Gib or in some cases directly from the base IIRC. This is going to be more difficult and costly now if not actually impossible. As such Malta and its abilities to oppose Axis supply routes let alone defend itself will be reduced. . Not even Pedestal guaranteed the Islands. I still see it as being virtually impossible for the Axis to take Egypt unless Britain does something really stupid but with the assumption that Spain joins the Axis then both Gib and Malta will ultimately fall. I could suggest two operations to make it likely Egypt falls in 1941. An Italian UDT operation in the Suez Canal. Anyone, Italian, besides that person, General Giuseppe Tellera; or the other incompetent, General Annibale Bergonzoli. A little actual leadership would put the British on the back foot. |
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Post by Max Sinister on Apr 27, 2022 22:58:02 GMT
Heh. The best example of a successful German invasion of Britain is still in the famous timeline {Spoiler}Decades of Darkness by Jared. That's however a TL with a PoD around 1800, which gives Germany enough time to build up a strong navy (it helps that the Dutch are included in this Germany), which can take on the RN. And that's after Britain lost a big war against the *USA. |
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oscssw
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Post by oscssw on Jun 16, 2022 13:58:49 GMT
Heh. The best example of a successful German invasion of Britain is still in the famous timeline {Spoiler}Decades of Darkness by Jared. That's however a TL with a PoD around 1800, which gives Germany enough time to build up a strong navy (it helps that the Dutch are included in this Germany), which can take on the RN. And that's after Britain lost a big war against the *USA. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 16, 2022 14:05:13 GMT
Heh. The best example of a successful German invasion of Britain is still in the famous timeline {Spoiler}Decades of Darkness by Jared. That's however a TL with a PoD around 1800, which gives Germany enough time to build up a strong navy (it helps that the Dutch are included in this Germany), which can take on the RN. And that's after Britain lost a big war against the *USA. Find The Little Admiral, 1939: Hitler and the German Navy which is one of several scenarios in Third Reich victorious : alternate histories of World War II / edited by Peter G. Tsouras also good. |
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