stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 22, 2020 20:04:59 GMT
If the US did get involved in the war and Sea Lion was a disaster for Hitler he may not have felt strong enough to attack the USSR in 1941 and as a result the Soviet forces stationed in the east would have stayed there threatening Japan so Pearl Harbor may not happen. WW2 may have ended up as a war between Germany and the US/UK. Later if Germany is loosing Stalin would probably pile on to grab some low hanging prizes. Hitler might not even declare war if Sea Lion had happen and Germany mange to fail in it, it would lost him a lot of troops, planes and ships, but then again we are speaking of Hitler, so you never know.
Not that many troops actually, although probably including some elite units such as the paras, as relatively few could be transported across the Channel. Much of the remaining Kriegsmarine is likely to be lost if their committed which could make for defending the convoys routes somewhat easier. This is doubly so if Roosevelt was able to get a US dow due to the invasion event. [Not so sure of this as while things would be tense and look bad I suspect that the German defeat would become pretty obvious pretty soon.] Depending on circumstances the Luftwaffe might not be greatly affected compared to OTL as its losses were pretty heavy anyway so an early invasion failure could even mean, if they avoided the day-time bombing attempts they lose less a/c in total.
Suspect that either way Hitler would probably push for Barbarossa although it might just be possible that after a disastrous bid to invade the UK, especially if it also brought the US into the conflict an attempt to attack the Soviets at the same time, might prompt a military coup attempt. Not sure that would succeed but would probably at least delay any push eastwards.
If the US joined the allies in 1940 - albeit I suspect its unlikely - how does that affect things with Japan? The US will be more involved in fighting the Nazis so might have less forces in the Pacific but they will be on a full war footing just over a year earlier so the Japanese are likely to have an even narrower time for any attempt at a strike south. Since they signed a neutrality agreement with the Soviets, which is still likely to occur I suspect, I don't think a new war between the Soviets and Japan are too likely. On the other hand the leadership of both sides was less than rational on many issues.
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markp
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Post by markp on Jan 25, 2020 6:39:13 GMT
With the US on a full war footing earlier chances are pearl harbor would be at a higher state of alert. US bases in the far east would have been reinforced especially after a failure of sea lion. Yamamoto may have been able to convince the Japanese leadership to not attache the US but concentrate on the French and Dutch colonies to replace the oil lost by the US embargo. The US may even ease the embargo to secure the west coast from a potential Japanese attack until Germany had been subdued. If the Germans do not attack the USSR the forces they would be able to deploy in the west would make an invasion extremely difficult. In this scenario a negotiated peace may even happen if the isolationists in the US can carry enough weight since the German naval losses would be so great that a second invasion attempt would be nearly impossible for several years.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 26, 2020 11:38:56 GMT
With the US on a full war footing earlier chances are pearl harbor would be at a higher state of alert. US bases in the far east would have been reinforced especially after a failure of sea lion. Yamamoto may have been able to convince the Japanese leadership to not attache the US but concentrate on the French and Dutch colonies to replace the oil lost by the US embargo. The US may even ease the embargo to secure the west coast from a potential Japanese attack until Germany had been subdued. If the Germans do not attack the USSR the forces they would be able to deploy in the west would make an invasion extremely difficult. In this scenario a negotiated peace may even happen if the isolationists in the US can carry enough weight since the German naval losses would be so great that a second invasion attempt would be nearly impossible for several years. Doubt Yamamoto had the power to convince the Army lead government in not attacking the United States, if Japan only went after the Dutch and British, it would leave their flank open to American attacks. But as this is the Operation Sea Lion thread i think we might go of topic discussing this here. Sea Lion: Why not just invade the UK in 1940?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 26, 2020 13:10:33 GMT
With the US on a full war footing earlier chances are pearl harbor would be at a higher state of alert. US bases in the far east would have been reinforced especially after a failure of sea lion. Yamamoto may have been able to convince the Japanese leadership to not attache the US but concentrate on the French and Dutch colonies to replace the oil lost by the US embargo. The US may even ease the embargo to secure the west coast from a potential Japanese attack until Germany had been subdued. If the Germans do not attack the USSR the forces they would be able to deploy in the west would make an invasion extremely difficult. In this scenario a negotiated peace may even happen if the isolationists in the US can carry enough weight since the German naval losses would be so great that a second invasion attempt would be nearly impossible for several years. Doubt Yamamoto had the power to convince the Army lead government in not attacking the United States, if Japan only went after the Dutch and British, it would leave their flank open to American attacks. But as this is the Operation Sea Lion thread i think we might go of topic discussing this here. Sea Lion: Why not just invade the UK in 1940?
That site is a very good one. Can't remember if I've looked at that one but the guy who runs it does a hell of a lot of research. Very useful look at any problems and issues in WWII and he covers other combats and issues as well.
Steve
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 26, 2020 13:14:38 GMT
Doubt Yamamoto had the power to convince the Army lead government in not attacking the United States, if Japan only went after the Dutch and British, it would leave their flank open to American attacks. But as this is the Operation Sea Lion thread i think we might go of topic discussing this here. Sea Lion: Why not just invade the UK in 1940?
That site is a very good one. Can't remember if I've looked at that one but the guy who runs it does a hell of a lot of research. Very useful look at any problems and issues in WWII and he covers other combats and issues as well.
Steve
That is something i also agree with, he has a very good YouTube channel. |
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markp
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Post by markp on Feb 2, 2020 3:07:35 GMT
The German Navy in 1940 would not have been able to hold the Channel. If Sea Lion took place in 1941 the Luftwaffe would have another year to batter the RAF. Also how would the British morale handle another year of London and other major. cities in the south being bombed. In order to keep morale up Churchill would have had to stay in London and be a visible source of resistance. He would have to be out in the street seen leading the resistance. There would have been the possibility that he could be killed in one of the raids. His replacement may negotiate a cease fire after the invasion. Also since Germany did not have an effective long range heavy bomber much of the UK would be spared the bombardment. Luftwaffe attacks on the Home Fleet may reduce its effectiveness to allow the landing to be pulled off. The Luftwaffe in this scenario would be able to protect the supply line across the Channel during the day. To protect it at night a large number of E boats could probably do the job and the extra year would allow this force to be built. The only way Sea Lion would have a chance would be if it caused the British government to collapse. That would not happen as long as Churchill is in power.
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 2, 2020 12:32:04 GMT
The German Navy in 1940 would not have been able to hold the Channel. If Sea Lion took place in 1941 the Luftwaffe would have another year to batter the RAF. Also how would the British morale handle another year of London and other major. cities in the south being bombed. In order to keep morale up Churchill would have had to stay in London and be a visible source of resistance. He would have to be out in the street seen leading the resistance. There would have been the possibility that he could be killed in one of the raids. His replacement may negotiate a cease fire after the invasion. Also since Germany did not have an effective long range heavy bomber much of the UK would be spared the bombardment. Luftwaffe attacks on the Home Fleet may reduce its effectiveness to allow the landing to be pulled off. The Luftwaffe in this scenario would be able to protect the supply line across the Channel during the day. To protect it at night a large number of E boats could probably do the job and the extra year would allow this force to be built. The only way Sea Lion would have a chance would be if it caused the British government to collapse. That would not happen as long as Churchill is in power. Years ago, long before I was into alternate history, I read a book on a speculative Sea Lion. It contained Churchill being killed in the story during a bombing raid as a key element to see a British ceasefire, rather than a surrender. By then, German panzer raiding parties had already gone far enough to make the victory certain anyway, enveloping London. I wasn't so sure, nor am now, that one man's death could bring about a collapse of resistance. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 2, 2020 12:37:57 GMT
The German Navy in 1940 would not have been able to hold the Channel. If Sea Lion took place in 1941 the Luftwaffe would have another year to batter the RAF. Also how would the British morale handle another year of London and other major. cities in the south being bombed. In order to keep morale up Churchill would have had to stay in London and be a visible source of resistance. He would have to be out in the street seen leading the resistance. There would have been the possibility that he could be killed in one of the raids. His replacement may negotiate a cease fire after the invasion. Also since Germany did not have an effective long range heavy bomber much of the UK would be spared the bombardment. Luftwaffe attacks on the Home Fleet may reduce its effectiveness to allow the landing to be pulled off. The Luftwaffe in this scenario would be able to protect the supply line across the Channel during the day. To protect it at night a large number of E boats could probably do the job and the extra year would allow this force to be built. The only way Sea Lion would have a chance would be if it caused the British government to collapse. That would not happen as long as Churchill is in power. Years ago, long before I was into alternate history, I read a book on a speculative Sea Lion. It contained Churchill being killed in the story during a bombing raid as a key element to see a British ceasefire, rather than a surrender. By then, German panzer raiding parties had already gone far enough to make the victory certain anyway, enveloping London. I wasn't so sure, nor am now, that one man's death could bring about a collapse of resistance. But the one man most likely to replace him as PM could change it. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 2, 2020 16:17:34 GMT
Years ago, long before I was into alternate history, I read a book on a speculative Sea Lion. It contained Churchill being killed in the story during a bombing raid as a key element to see a British ceasefire, rather than a surrender. By then, German panzer raiding parties had already gone far enough to make the victory certain anyway, enveloping London. I wasn't so sure, nor am now, that one man's death could bring about a collapse of resistance. But the one man most likely to replace him as PM could change it.
Well at that point Attlee was deputy PM although I suspect possibly Eden would be the new Tory leader and given their majority in Parliament probably the new PM.
If you mean Halifax by early 41 he's not only discredited he's in Washington as the Ambassador to the US.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 2, 2020 16:20:56 GMT
But the one man most likely to replace him as PM could change it. Well at that point Attlee was deputy PM although I suspect possibly Eden would be the new Tory leader and given their majority in Parliament probably the new PM. If you mean Halifax by early 41 he's not only discredited he's in Washington as the Ambassador to the US.
Would Attlee keep the war going then. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 17, 2020 7:22:45 GMT
Operation Sealion: Actually a Bad Idea
Some Notes On Operation Sea Lion
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gillan1220
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I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
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Post by gillan1220 on Sept 4, 2020 4:12:20 GMT
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perkeo
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Post by perkeo on May 24, 2021 14:45:57 GMT
Before we discuss how the Nazis could SUCCEED in any alternate Operation Sealion, we should establish what makes them EVEN TRY.
AFAIK one of the main reasons why it wasn’t tried is that even Hitler understood it as futile, and air superiority over southern England alone was necessary but not sufficient to convince him otherwise. It was mostly a bluff all along - and Churchill called.
Germany needs to achieve the illusion of naval superiority in the British Channel. Only then they get defeated due to lack of suitable landing craft and when reality kicks in regarding the supposed defeat of the RAF and British Navy.
My question is: Can it plausibility be done?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 24, 2021 14:46:56 GMT
My question is: Can it plausibility be done? Could be done, but if the Germans could win, that is the number One question. |
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perkeo
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Post by perkeo on Jun 1, 2021 16:30:07 GMT
My question is: Can it plausibility be done? Could be done, but if the Germans could win, that is the number One question. My question wasn't about wether the Naziy could have tried, but how you could get out of the "Even the Nazis knew there was no point trying" territory. They could have won the Battle of Britain, forcing the RAF to retreat to northern Britain. But how could they accomplish naval dominance (or the illusion thereof) of the British Channel? |
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