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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Aug 25, 2018 2:37:03 GMT
Historically, Greece was on the side of the Allies during WWII while Bulgaria joined the Axis in 1941, just before the invasion of Yugoslavia. Because of Bulgaria's alliance with Germany, most of Bulgaria's territorial gains during WWII were nullified with the exception of Southern Dobruzha (acquired during the Second Vienna Awards).
With a PoD in the inter-war era, what would it take for Greece to become either a major Axis ally or an Axis-aligned co-belligerent? Moreover, what would it take for Bulgaria to become a part of the Allies? Perhaps if Mussolini was killed off during WWI, and an alternate Italian fascist with sympathies for Greece (a common enemy would be the Slavic nations), it might be doable. In addition, how will Turkey react to an Axis-aligned Greece? Can it acquire the island of Rhodes and even acquire the southern portion of Cyprus?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 25, 2018 6:59:27 GMT
Historically, Greece was on the side of the Allies during WWII while Bulgaria joined the Axis in 1941, just before the invasion of Yugoslavia. Because of Bulgaria's alliance with Germany, most of Bulgaria's territorial gains during WWII were nullified with the exception of Southern Dobruzha (acquired during the Second Vienna Awards). With a PoD in the inter-war era, what would it take for Greece to become either a major Axis ally or an Axis-aligned co-belligerent? Moreover, what would it take for Bulgaria to become a part of the Allies? Perhaps if Mussolini was killed off during WWI, and an alternate Italian fascist with sympathies for Greece (a common enemy would be the Slavic nations), it might be doable. In addition, how will Turkey react to an Axis-aligned Greece? Can it acquire the island of Rhodes and even acquire the southern portion of Cyprus? Is a Allied Bulgaria not surrounded by pro Germany countries. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 25, 2018 10:01:46 GMT
Historically, Greece was on the side of the Allies during WWII while Bulgaria joined the Axis in 1941, just before the invasion of Yugoslavia. Because of Bulgaria's alliance with Germany, most of Bulgaria's territorial gains during WWII were nullified with the exception of Southern Dobruzha (acquired during the Second Vienna Awards). With a PoD in the inter-war era, what would it take for Greece to become either a major Axis ally or an Axis-aligned co-belligerent? Moreover, what would it take for Bulgaria to become a part of the Allies? Perhaps if Mussolini was killed off during WWI, and an alternate Italian fascist with sympathies for Greece (a common enemy would be the Slavic nations), it might be doable. In addition, how will Turkey react to an Axis-aligned Greece? Can it acquire the island of Rhodes and even acquire the southern portion of Cyprus?Is a Allied Bulgaria not surrounded by pro Germany countries.
That would be one problem. Another would be that the historical alignment was strongly influenced by WWI. I.e. Bulgaria was in the CPs in WWI and lost land as a result so it wanted to regain that and gain others so it went with the Axis. Greece, eventually after a lot of internal conflict, went with the EPs and gained land so it was in favour of the status quo. As such you would need to have a markedly earlier POD I suspect. Also there was probably the long lasting Grecophila element in British culture going back to its importance in classical times that meant relations between it and Britain were generally good.
Also by its nature as an island/peninsula nation Greece is very dependent on sea communications, both internal coastal trade and international, it would be very difficult to put it in an alliance that didn't have naval superiority.
In the unlikely event of Greece being in the Axis I think Turkey, stuck between the Axis and the Soviets would hunker down until the end of the war just as it did OTL. It got a very good settlement in 1922 and is unlikely to want to change that.
Turkey, if Greece was Axis aligned and the Turks joined the war earlier it might gain Rhodes, despite that being overwhelmingly Greek in population but that island and the rest of the Dodecanese were in Italian hands between 1912 and 1945. Turkey would have no chance of gaining any part of Cyprus as it was a British colony at the time.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 25, 2018 10:05:49 GMT
Is a Allied Bulgaria not surrounded by pro Germany countries. That would be one problem. Another would be that the historical alignment was strongly influenced by WWI. I.e. Bulgaria was in the CPs in WWI and lost land as a result so it wanted to regain that and gain others so it went with the Axis. Greece, eventually after a lot of internal conflict, went with the EPs and gained land so it was in favour of the status quo. As such you would need to have a markedly earlier POD I suspect. Also there was probably the long lasting Grecophila element in British culture going back to its importance in classical times that meant relations between it and Britain were generally good.
Also by its nature as an island/peninsula nation Greece is very dependent on sea communications, both internal coastal trade and international, it would be very difficult to put it in an alliance that didn't have naval superiority. In the unlikely event of Greece being in the Axis I think Turkey, stuck between the Axis and the Soviets would hunker down until the end of the war just as it did OTL. It got a very good settlement in 1922 and is unlikely to want to change that. Turkey, if Greece was Axis aligned and the Turks joined the war earlier it might gain Rhodes, despite that being overwhelmingly Greek in population but that island and the rest of the Dodecanese were in Italian hands between 1912 and 1945. Turkey would have no chance of gaining any part of Cyprus as it was a British colony at the time.
Would Turkey not pick the British and French side. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 25, 2018 10:24:40 GMT
That would be one problem. Another would be that the historical alignment was strongly influenced by WWI. I.e. Bulgaria was in the CPs in WWI and lost land as a result so it wanted to regain that and gain others so it went with the Axis. Greece, eventually after a lot of internal conflict, went with the EPs and gained land so it was in favour of the status quo. As such you would need to have a markedly earlier POD I suspect. Also there was probably the long lasting Grecophila element in British culture going back to its importance in classical times that meant relations between it and Britain were generally good.
Also by its nature as an island/peninsula nation Greece is very dependent on sea communications, both internal coastal trade and international, it would be very difficult to put it in an alliance that didn't have naval superiority. In the unlikely event of Greece being in the Axis I think Turkey, stuck between the Axis and the Soviets would hunker down until the end of the war just as it did OTL. It got a very good settlement in 1922 and is unlikely to want to change that. Turkey, if Greece was Axis aligned and the Turks joined the war earlier it might gain Rhodes, despite that being overwhelmingly Greek in population but that island and the rest of the Dodecanese were in Italian hands between 1912 and 1945. Turkey would have no chance of gaining any part of Cyprus as it was a British colony at the time.
Would Turkey not pick the British and French side.
It would depend on the timing of events but once France fell the Turks were between the traditional rock and a hard place. [I.e. Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia]. There's no way it would choose either, let alone a pro-western stance before it was secure about being attacked by the other. It didn't want to choose the Soviets at all because it would fear that accepting Soviet 'protection' would lead to occupation - which would be very likely I suspect, especially given the attractiveness of holding the straits. Also by ~41 it was clear that the war was long and very costly. As such they had very strong reasons for staying neutral and avoiding the death and devastation so only declared war way after the Germans had been driven from near their border. This might also have been influenced by the fact that as an 'ally' albeit a very late one, it gave them some say at the post-war settlement and some security against pressure from Stalin.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Aug 25, 2018 17:21:52 GMT
Italy was a member of the Entente in WWI, but had joined the Axis at the beginning of WWII. There could have been a precedent there for Greece to switch sides, especially if they felt cheated by the losses of their acquired territories in Turkey.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 25, 2018 17:24:13 GMT
Italy was a member of the Entente in WWI, but had joined the Axis at the beginning of WWII. There could have been a precedent there for Greece to switch sides, especially if they felt cheated by the losses of their acquired territories in Turkey. Was Greece not ruled by a dictator at that time. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 25, 2018 20:04:21 GMT
Italy was a member of the Entente in WWI, but had joined the Axis at the beginning of WWII. There could have been a precedent there for Greece to switch sides, especially if they felt cheated by the losses of their acquired territories in Turkey.
There is that but Italy was alienated because it failed to get promised territorial gains from the allies. The Greek war with Turkey was basically its own doing after WWI. Plus its general alliance with Yugoslavia and territorial disputes with Italy and Bulgaria means their likely to end up opposed to them.
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James G
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Post by James G on Aug 26, 2018 11:45:56 GMT
Greece in the Axis will mean that once war comes with Britain there will be a fight for their islands. Air and naval facilities in Axis hands at that end of the Med. will all pose a serious threat to British influence. I think we would see a very different battle of Crete than in OTL.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 26, 2018 11:47:38 GMT
Greece in the Axis will mean that once war comes with Britain there will be a fight for their islands. Air and naval facilities in Axis hands at that end of the Med. will all pose a serious threat to British influence. I think we would see a very different battle of Crete than in OTL. One with the British doing a air and sea landing against a Axis Greece and German hold Crete. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Aug 26, 2018 12:46:36 GMT
Greece in the Axis will mean that once war comes with Britain there will be a fight for their islands. Air and naval facilities in Axis hands at that end of the Med. will all pose a serious threat to British influence. I think we would see a very different battle of Crete than in OTL. One with the British doing a air and sea landing against a Axis Greece and German hold Crete. That was my immediate thought, yes. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 26, 2018 13:44:36 GMT
One with the British doing a air and sea landing against a Axis Greece and German hold Crete. That was my immediate thought, yes. With naval dominance it might work, that is what I think. |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Sept 25, 2018 5:19:06 GMT
The Allies might go hard for Crete first before mainland Greece. In addition, an Axis Greece might have additional tragic consequences for Albania as well, if the status of the North Epirus Greeks would come into consideration.
Of course, an Axis Greece might also influence Yugoslavia to join the Axis as well, given that there was an actual pro-Axis government in the Stojadinovic administration before the British sponsored a coup that led to the German invasion of Yugoslavia. Royal Yugoslavia without the German invasion will butterfly the genocidal tragedies and ethnic feuds between Serbs, Croats, and Bosniaks, as well as Albanians. In the 1930s, there was a plan between Yugoslavia and Turkey to resettle the Albanians from Kosovo into Turkish territory. No German invasion would also have a demographic effect on Kosovo as well.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 25, 2018 9:27:13 GMT
The Allies might go hard for Crete first before mainland Greece. In addition, an Axis Greece might have additional tragic consequences for Albania as well, if the status of the North Epirus Greeks would come into consideration. Of course, an Axis Greece might also influence Yugoslavia to join the Axis as well, given that there was an actual pro-Axis government in the Stojadinovic administration before the British sponsored a coup that led to the German invasion of Yugoslavia. Royal Yugoslavia without the German invasion will butterfly the genocidal tragedies and ethnic feuds between Serbs, Croats, and Bosniaks, as well as Albanians. In the 1930s, there was a plan between Yugoslavia and Turkey to resettle the Albanians from Kosovo into Turkish territory. No German invasion would also have a demographic effect on Kosovo as well.
I think Churchill at least would want to occupy Crete but that could be difficult with how thinly stretched British forces were at the time and how hard the Greeks fought in WWII. After all we weren't able to threaten Italian possession of Rhodes while Greece was neutral OTL. On the other hand there's unlikely to be a British intervention in Greece, or a friendly but land locked Bulgaria so you might just see Libya cleared by a follow up to the Compass operation before Rommel gets established there, which could help a lot.
If as a result of Greece going fascist there was no anti-Axis coup in Yugoslavia it won't prevent brutal hatred in the populations of the country as they long pre-date WWII. However things might be less bloody. Also could be nasty for the Croats because with a right wing regime backed by the Axis, the latter are unlikely to favour the extremist Pavelic regime and would support Belgrade stomping down on him and Croatian elements pushing for independence. So instead of fascist Croatia slaughtering Serbs in areas under their control it would be Serbs slaughtering Croats. Also its pretty unlikely that Tito could set up his partisans in the Serbian heartland, which could mean he's based in Croatia instead which would bring more fire down on them.
Never heard of this plan for deporting the Albanians - or was this Muslims in general - in Kosovo but if that went ahead it could secure Yugoslav/Serbian control of the region. Might also set a nasty precedent for Albania as well if Italy decided it wanted to deport the population there to make way for Italians.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2018 12:39:17 GMT
Was Greece not ruled by a dictator at that time. Metaxas was an admirer of Hitler (who wasn't) but realised only the Royal Navy could protect Greece from Italian occupation. One with the British doing a air and sea landing against a Axis Greece and German hold Crete. I'm not sure Hitler would divert a single man from any front to defend Crete. Mussolini would however, Greece would be part of Italy's sphere of influence/Empire. |
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