Development of the German Navy after a 1916 victory including some large naval victories

steffen
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Development of the German Navy after a 1916 victory including some large naval victories Apr 12, 2018 13:28:52 GMT

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Post by steffen on Apr 12, 2018 13:28:52 GMT

Apr 12, 2018 11:46:48 GMT eurowatch said:

Apr 12, 2018 11:08:57 GMT stevep said:

Why? Unless the Dutch have openly allied themselves with Germany when a new war starts there is no point in the allies adding another foe and an additional burden. Not to mention its unlikely France will feel secure enough to enter a defensive alliance for quite a while.

If the Dutch have allied with an aggressive Germany then when a new war starts the allies would have to remove the DEI and other such bases threatening their supply lines and trade routes but its only if the Dutch have allied with Germany.

Japan and France are not going to care if The Netherlands are Allied With Germany or not, France is only going to care that The Hague is pro-German and Japan sole interests are in the DEI and its oilfields. And Dutch oil supplying Germany is going to be a threat for both Great Britain and France unless the Royal Navy manages to shut Down the North Sea (which they were unable to do in the previous war and can't be expected to do this time either).

And why would Germany be the agressor when they have gained all they wanted? It is France and Great Britain who have reasons to start another war.

Yes and no

Yes - germany had gained all they wanted, could expand their economic ties with the osmans (who have a huge debt to pay back... perfect by oil and basing rights

), they will establish something like Mitteleuropa and otherwise look into the internal troubles. Here we have no Lenin in russia, no break of the SPD and USPD (happened 1917, here it is peace allready), not suffering terriorital losses.
They gain new colonies (Madagascar, bases in morroco (1912 wouldn´t be forgotten in germany), the congo, new caledonia (as compensation for the lost isles to japan)), they get money from france.
Austria-Hungaria is also trying to bring themself back on track, bulgaria will also be happy. Italy will be very calm, will NOT look for british support (otherwise it could end badly for them), but would be much wealthier, because they were used as neutral channel for german demands (rubber, tin, oil, food, grain). The chances are high that they would try to be friendly with germany, to keep austria-hungaria at distance...

Even belgium, that gain some money to rebuild will sometimes recover. They will not be friendly to germany - naturally, but if they benefit from Mitteleuropa, they will go in. Nobody protected them last time... so why not do the best out of it?

No, france can´t do a thing about the DEI. If they size em, germany invade france and crush them like a bug.
Only japan - the sneaky little "yellows" could do them harm.
Why on earth should UK intervene in free trading from the DEI to germany? Just because the evil tommy want to? Nope, they were many things, but not dumb. They normally know when it is over. Here - it is over. Game over for the empire to strike back. They will defend their sea lanes, build up railroads internal, try to solve their irish problem (hell, if ireland gets (partly) liberated, how much fun would it be to write a story with german-irish alliance against the british danger

)

So, the netherlands will look for security, asking the USA, UK and germany to protect peace in the pacific against hostile interventions...

with japan messing in china the USA will be very glad to support the dutch and the germans would love to take back what the japanese had taken in ww1.

The world is completly different in TL, a still wealthy and stable germany mean that revolutions wouldn´t happen, the Austrian-hungarian "problem" could either be solved peacefully (a federation) or something - again peacefully - stable could be build.
The polish people in germany wouldn´t be happy - right. They have no chance to "gain" what they want, but there is no war - or in case of russian agressions the germans would support the polish.

Overall a much better place, no 1929-crash, cause no overheated US economy breaks down and pull down the european nations in the way it happened OTL... Everybody, even the british will have a better life because of these fallouts.

Only the colonials could suffer more - that is bad. Because with germany gaining colonies and germany and UK having some kind of cold war the presence of armed forces in these regions is greater.
On the other hand, if the germans want to establish a working infrastructure (as they did in their colonies), these could have later a better start (but they never should even think about rebellions).

Maybe the SPD rule for quite some time and get "fancy" ideas like "let them go independent"? A bit stretched, maybe around 1950 such thing could happen... don´t know.

But i can´t see a true second world war... russia will recover, but in europe the "enemy" is to strong, also in the south (osman empire and germany are allied). Some conflicts with UK are doable, also some conflict with japan. That is something i really want to see... the russians crush the japanese in china, wipe out the evil regime... all without communism winning.

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Development of the German Navy after a 1916 victory including some large naval victories Apr 12, 2018 22:15:31 GMT

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Post by stevep on Apr 12, 2018 22:15:31 GMT

Apr 12, 2018 13:10:02 GMT eurowatch said:

Apr 12, 2018 12:20:08 GMT stevep said:

In the initial very unlikely scenario the German's won WWI by naval means but that's unlikely to last as Britain has too much interest in national survival to have an openly hostile power dominating its supply lines. Plus there is the little factor of geography. Without controlling Britain Germany can't project naval power from its base. Especially since the lesson's learnt from that conflict and the growing importance of air power strengthen that geographical position.

It didn't stop Germany being the aggressor in 1914 and its obvious that a single expansionist nation is far more likely to be the starter of a conflict than a coalition of nations worried about that powers behaviour. That's a basic rule of geopolitics.

Japan's overwhelming interest in such a scenario would be its national survival and bases of an hostile power across its main supply lines will be a major threat. So if the Dutch are allied to Germany in a conflict that would be a major target of them, Australia and Britain. If the Dutch are neutral then there is no reason to take on additional opponents. [At least unless your power obsessed belligerents who think military might is the be all and end all - which was the case in Germany in both world wars. True also of Japan in WWII but different drivers apply here. There is a possibility that it might degenerate in the same way but no reason it should do and plenty it shouldn't.]

Japan cared very little about European politics, what they did care about was that due to the Western embargo they were lacking one million tonns of oil a year. They needed those oilfields and the more they sit around waiting for their European allies to get a good attacked the less strategic posibilities they have.
There is going to be a point where they have to attack or they won't be able to attack at all.

Which is totally irrelevant to TTL. That's OTL when they were bogged down in an attempt to conquer China and had hence upset the main western powers, especially Britain and American and hence come under the economic embargo. TTL their primary threat is almost certainly to be Germany and their going to have defensive alliances with Britain at the least and possibly Russia and/or France. Under those circumstances their aim will be to protect their vital lines for imports against Germany.

Japan at this time actually cared a lot about European politics, both because they looked toward it for role models and because they knew that was where the power was. Also why they reacted so badly to being sidelined by the west - a minor position in the WNT and the loss of the alliance with Britain. TTL there's going to be no naval limitation treaty and Britain and Japan will continue to be close allies because they need to be.

steffen
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Development of the German Navy after a 1916 victory including some large naval victories Apr 15, 2018 17:17:34 GMT

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Post by steffen on Apr 15, 2018 17:17:34 GMT

Apr 12, 2018 22:15:31 GMT stevep said:

Apr 12, 2018 13:10:02 GMT eurowatch said:

Japan cared very little about European politics, what they did care about was that due to the Western embargo they were lacking one million tonns of oil a year. They needed those oilfields and the more they sit around waiting for their European allies to get a good attacked the less strategic posibilities they have.
There is going to be a point where they have to attack or they won't be able to attack at all.

Which is totally irrelevant to TTL. That's OTL when they were bogged down in an attempt to conquer China and had hence upset the main western powers, especially Britain and American and hence come under the economic embargo. TTL their primary threat is almost certainly to be Germany and their going to have defensive alliances with Britain at the least and possibly Russia and/or France. Under those circumstances their aim will be to protect their vital lines for imports against Germany.

Japan at this time actually cared a lot about European politics, both because they looked toward it for role models and because they knew that was where the power was. Also why they reacted so badly to being sidelined by the west - a minor position in the WNT and the loss of the alliance with Britain. TTL there's going to be no naval limitation treaty and Britain and Japan will continue to be close allies because they need to be.

Again, i allways mentioned that japan still do their 21 demands... just as - after an OTL-event happend by taking the colonies and Tsingtau. These victories against an white enemy helped to establish their hybris. The 21 demands was the key for the downfall of the japanese evil empire.. it was also the key to it. in it they basically burned their bridges to the european allies (France/UK), if you call em not cobelligerents...

Here it is the same - they do this, anger esp. the USA, but also slap the entente in its face. UK keeps em as allied nation, because they need em, but they do not understand how mad any japanese government would be.

With the war ending in 1916 the japanese had achived "everything", but had angered the winning CPs - esp the Kaiser at maximum.
I wrote - the japanese would "buy" the colonies, but that would not heal the hurt pride of the german kaiser or the germans.

They compensate a bit by the french pacific colonies, moving their "empire" to the south, but the japanese now face
a.) very angered germans who will NOT play nice with them... think about german cruisers, t-boats, battleships, battlecruisers, subs in german bases... (that also triggers the australians and Kiwi - that will force the british to move ships and spent money to this area...)
b.) very irritated dutch - as otl they clearly see the interests of the japanese (the DEI)... so they orders battleships in germany (with all the money they made by selling stuff to the germans they could afford it) - these will be happy if the germans offers em a guarantee to help em in case of japanese agressions (and this is just also smart to the germans, because agressive japanese mean no security for BOTH)
c.) angered americans- again just like OTL. For sure the USA will be also irritated/angered by german occupation of french caledonia, but parts of their political elite will understood that they just move south because they cannot take back the taken colonies from japan. For the USA a weak french force here would be better - but if the germans (as i suspect will happen) work WITH the USA against japan, this will be compensate a bit. Still i see the USA build up their infrastructure on their pacific isles... so Wake will be better protected, maybe Midway and Guam. I think the philippines will still be base of a part of the american fleet, esp. with more and stronger dutch and more and stronger british and german presence here.

With the years the hostile japanese acts (think about OTL) would mean that the most european countries, maybe even france? would work together to contain the japanese... hopefully the russians (no communism) do their revenge and wipe the japanese out in korea? For sure a lot business with china, esp. selling military goods... here germany has a huge advantage, selling all the german guns, ammo and rifles improve the chinese army, older german warships (tboats, small cruisers) could be given for cheap money... just to anger japan. There is no communist russia at the border, so china is also different.

So the most realistic behaviour for japan is to keep its alliance with UK, supporting them (officially) against huns "empire"... a modern japanese fleet , that help to crush the hun in the DEI (esp. if the dutch have good relationship with germany) would be highly attractive for the british. the problem could be the Kiwis and australians... but if the japanese "promise" to not take these areas but give em rightfully to UK they might be less hostile to this idea?

The germans will just build a "raider force" in the pacific... also bases for long range naval recon planes, zeppelins, some smaller yards for t-boats, s-boats, subs, small cruisers could reload. Noumea could be a major base, but "major" is misleading... maybe some fortress guns (30,5cm), concrete, mines, some subs, t-boats, older pre-DN (who get wrecked here), such small stuff. Enough to irritate the Empire, but nothing that could hope to survive a war. As long as they exist, they could help to disturb the trading routes of the empire... for this they are perfectly usable...

So japan is on the british side and for UK it is hard to drop em... doing that mean they suddenly have TWO enemies in the same area... and they better pray that the two do not work together (they won´t as long as the kaiser has influence, but who knows?)

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Development of the German Navy after a 1916 victory including some large naval victories

Post by steffen on Apr 12, 2018 13:28:52 GMT

Post by stevep on Apr 12, 2018 22:15:31 GMT

Post by steffen on Apr 15, 2018 17:17:34 GMT