Development of the German Navy after a 1916 victory including some large naval victories

War ends in 1916 (armistice asked by the entente at october 16), but the navy had done much more (2 significant victories, one in dec 14 and one in 15 - jutland 1 year earlier), also lots of small engagements in the channel (germany occupy the southern part till south to boulogne-sur-mar, so they could move lots of tboats and cruisers to the channel, closing it for the british coastal traffic to london - that was one major base for the entente asking for terms (british internal structures stretched beyond the breaking point, lots of very unhappy londoners who are forced to move out (there exist suggestions that with the coastal traffic closed 1/3 of them have to leave the city! if that happens in late 1914 you have 3 million british citicens forced out of london for 2 years! Also this stretches the railroads thin in uk, force em to build more and more effective railroads and double lanes internal (as they did OTL post ww1), to fuel the city even without coastal traffic.

So the two PODs are
a.) germany win the race to the sea
b.) the navy have significant impact in the war in the east (baltic) and the west.

THe bayern would be build/finished, the mackensens and ersatz-yorks too.
But after that germany need building holidays. To help them i placed an osman job with 6 modern battleships (2 L20alpha, 4 even larger with 42cm-guns, 27kn, oil fired, around 47.000ts - infact the biggest battleships in the world in 1920 (first layed down).)

Germany will only start their own new ship building program about 1922/23, because they have internal problems, need to reach their colonies, esp. the new ones, internal struggle with their social reforms, etc.
They could propably build 1,5 battleships per year from 1922 on, before they need to modernize (lightly) their more moern ones, move from coal to oil, deck armor, bulges, such stuff. But nothing big, their yards build for the osmans, propably also for the dutch battleships.

Germany won the battleship-engagements with UK, so everybody thinks the germans have the better ships.

Feel free to plan your german and british fleet based on that plot.

Well, very nice pictures.

I have not given my opinion about german ship building till now:

Here a first draft:
1.) older Hex-Ships - the survivors will stay in the baltics, to check the russian fleet, support the baltic states. Overall only slightly modernized (raised guns, more AA guns). They will stay in the fleet for some years (War ends in 1917, so maybe 1921-24?), but at the end very aging...
2,) newer Hex-Ships - the same. Here you have at last 30,5cm-guns, so i think they could stay till 1928, a bit more modernized around 1920, maybe replacement of the coal and switch to oil firing, but otherwise only slightly modernized (remove the torpedo tubes, a bit more deck protection, raise the guns (Range of 27.000m max is propably needed), if they do more - because they want em in their colonies (for a decade) they could remove 2 turrets, put in much more AA guns, remove the old 15cm-guns in the casemattes... but again, keep the costs as low as possible for these old ships.
3.) Kaisers/Koenigs: Here i see an early modernisation - between 1918-20, they all go in the yards, they get their boats removed, rafts replace em. They add "lots" of AA-guns, propably 8x1 88mm AA-gun, maybe even 10x1 88mm, later 10x1 105mm-AA-gun, additional heavy MG and later 20mm cannons... the Koenigs could - second refit - loose their central turret and switch to diesels in this scenario. Then they get 50-60mm deck protection, bulges, maybe a false bow (length raise to 210m?), but again, only around 1925-26 this would happen. So first step: 18-20: Raise guns, switch to oil firing, AA-guns, boats get replaced. Second step (25-26 - 1-2 years of yard): remove a turret(Koenigs) or two (Kaisers), use the saved weight for more protection from above and also use the space below to build in a diesel-engine-drive... the goal is a "weak" battleship with either 3x2 or 4x2 30,5cm-guns, some secondaries and AA-guns, a range about 10.000nm at 14kn and a max speed of 25-26kn. If that isn´t doable, they will stay in stage 1-conditions and get a replacement
4.) Bayern-class: These ships are "brand new", but need some improvements... so raise the guns, put additional AA guns on them (19/20)... the first improvement is to improve deck-protection (+30mm, maybe +50mm), add bulges to the ships, switch to oil-firing. Speed fell to 19-20kn max (from 21,5-22kn): this would happen in 21/22.
Second - larger - rebuild around 27/28: Here you replace the old machinery by new diesels, enlarge the ship by 20m (a new bow section) to compensate the broader ship, so you would get 70.000 HP for 24-25kn max., Range 15.000nm at 14kn. In this stage propably the casematte-guns are removed, also the torpedo tubes. They get a new DP-150mm-gun, that could be ready around 1928 (and finally working after 10-12 years of development). These could be in single mounts and twin-turrets, so basically a 4x2 38cm, 4x2 + 6x1 150mm DP-guns, some 40mm Bofors in twin and singles, also lots of 20mm guns... These ships will be expensive to rebuild (around 50% of the original costs) but still very inferior designs.
5.) Mackensen-class: these ships (3+3 (1 less as OTL, because Blücher did not get sunk in my scenario)) with 4x2 35cm, 27,5kn, 300mm belt (second batch), 275mm belt (first batch) are true fast battleships. Finished between 1917 (late) and 1920... the core of the german High fleet.
Unfortunatly, they need expensive rebuilds, the turrets get raised guns, the casematte guns will be reduced to 10 (5 on each side), 88mm-AA-guns (8x1, later 6x2) will be put on these ships. the last 2 ships will be build with oil-only-engines, also a more modern version, reaching 29kn.
Range - around 7000nm at 14kn, later improved to 9000nm at 14kn.
First rebuild: Remove the casematte guns. This happens between 1926 and 1931... in this rebuild all coal firing is removed by oil, bulges and deck armor (+50mm-> 80-110mm), so they reach 27kn max after rebuild. Weaponary: 8x35cm (4x2), 8x15cm (4x2), 8x105mm (4x2), 16x40mm Bofors (4x2,8x1), 20x 20mm (10x2), 4 torpedotubes, 12 torpedos (still - germany was as stupid).
Second rebuild: Aging engines are completly removed by diesel engines, 100.000 HP, 28kn, 4x2 35cm, 20x150mm DP (10x2), 32x40mm Bofors (4x4, 8x2), 16x20mm (4x4), removed torpedo tubes, improved deck armor, bulges.
Expensive rebuild, still inferior ships - from 1934-40.

Older Battlecruisers:
the 28cm-gun-ships will be sold to the osmans.,
the Derflingers (als 3) get raised guns, a bit more deck protection (+30mm), more AA guns (from 4x1 88mm to 12x1 88mm, 12x Heavy MG)...(1919-21)
Switch to oil firing (between 22-24), raise the range

Only modernisation: 1930: Remove the casematte guns, remove the AA-guns - replace by 20 128mm DP-guns (new ones, the standard-gun for non-battleships, cruisers, destroyers, etc.) (10x2), add 16x40mm Boforts (4x4) and 16x20mm (8x2, later 4x4).
Deck protection + 20 (total +50mm), diesel engines for range (100.000 HP for 28kn), bulges, new above-deck torpedo tubes (4x3 60cm), Range - 14.000nm at 14kn, speed 28,5kn, Airconditioning... for tropical use suitable... again no real battleship, but superior to any cruiser, fast enough to run away from most battleships.

A new battleship design will be develoted and hot debates will errupt, between 1918 and 1925 around 20 designs will be calculated.
Something along a new design will be created around 1925, 4 ships in first batch, 4 ships in the second to replace the aging ships.
Building time: 4 years, costs - around 100mio Goldmark each
8 42cm-guns, 4x2, 24x150mm DP-guns (12x2), 20x40mm (5x4), 20x20mm (10x2), Deck armor 110-140mm, Side: Multi-Layer defence, 300mm Belt, 4 screws, mixed drive: 1st: for 22kn 40.000 HP on 2 screws, additional 80.000 HP for 2 screws Steam engines, max.speed 29,5kn, 50.000ts light, 57.000ts full, 265x38x9m, 2200 crew.
Only 4 will be build (Because real costs are 130-150mio Goldmark each)...

The major costs for these ships are:
Locks of wilhelmshaven and other areas have to be enlarged, the Kaiser-Wilhelm-channel is enlarged, able to take ships till 45m broad, 10m deep and 300m length (first ship - SMS Kaiser Wilhelm-II, a fleet carrier of 1950 with 280x43x9,5m and 78.000ts was nearly to big for this)

Overall the real use of battleships is heated discussed, the Battleship admirals demand more and more new toys, the cruiser/destroyer-fans demanded much more of these usefull ships, the submariners for 300 subs, all modernised.

Ironically the german fleet will have around 1940 the oldest ships with the USA, but japan, italy and UK have much more modern and stronger ships ready for use.

(that is my impression about this situation - with germany lacking the money, then they build "white elephants" usefull in traditional engagements, but way to expensive and to slow. With only 4 units they lack the support of the other "modernised" battleships. With enough range to break through these ships still can´t hope to significant reduce the Royal Navy (these have around 20 modern battleships with 16" and 18"-guns, from 62.000ts to 75.000ts (think about Yamato on steroids, 12x 18", 30kn, 457mm Belt, 250mm deck, 24x5,25" DP-guns, 280x38x14m)

There was a German aircraft carrier being build, called German aircraft carrier I

A lot depends on the circumstances of course but there is likely to be a substantial naval race. The US will most likely complete their 1916 programme, although probably with the initial designs so the Lexington's are going to be even more weakly defended and probably 10x14" rather than 8x16" guns. This will spark the Japanese 8:8 programme as OTL although they probably won't be able to complete it, especially not after the 23 quake. Say they end up with about 10 new ships.

Britain will definitely build and probably something like the OTL G3 designs as lessons from Jutland will be similar if not from the earlier 1914 defeat. Possibly followed by the N3 type design although - depending on what's built elsewhere - I would prefer more G3's. [That gives commonality in the new ships and also markedly better strategic and tactical speed]. Very likely going to see the FAA developed and a lot of work on ASW warfare, as well as incorporating lessons from WWI in terms of better shell design, night fighting etc.

The army will be bigger than OTL 1914 but possibly not greatly so. There is an hostile Germany sitting just across the Channel but how likely a successful sudden invasion would be is doubtful so I don't see Britain going for a massive continental sized army. It will need a much stronger navy to secure protection of both the Channel and more distant trade routes as well as stronger air defences at least as much as a large army. Along with a refreshment of the British industrial base which showed some serious short-falls OTL and probably TTL as well. Since the war is a lot less expensive for Britain, in manpower and even more so money there will be resources for this, especially with the clear need.

Diplomatically Germany will look so dominant in Europe there will be attempts at forcing a new counter-weight but with France crippled the only real factor is possibly Russia but a lot will depend on what happens there. The fact the threat is also seen in other areas could see a closer co-operation with the other dominions. If the Germans insist on getting their Pacific colonies back there will be a substantial build-up by Australia and New Zealand and as said being forced to return Namibia will make Germany very unpopular in S Africa. Canada may also be brought in as the idea is clearly to defend against Germany so all bar the most blinkered American will realise its not a move against the US. I doubt the US will come out of isolationism however.
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There will be no naval treaty as I doubt there will be the necessary trust for it. I can't see a buoyant imperial Germany accepting less than equality with Britain and in term Britain can't accept equality.

A lot will depend on how long the German domination in Europe lasts. With a liberal victory against the aristocracy in the post-war internal power struggle that potentially releases a lot more resources but it also means that the new Germany is likely to look to increasing the wealth of the ordinary German rather than maintaining the empire and the military at such high levels. It can afford to go lower with France crushed and Russia for the moment neutralised but this will be unpopular with the army and conservative figures and I suspect a successful liberal victory post-war will create a desire to cut this further. Also the much larger imperial commitments will increase costs.

The other question of course is what happens with Austria? Its going to face some rocky times after the war, unless Carl can get realistic reforms and that could be more difficult with a military victory increasing the influence of the conservatives and yet more Slavs - especially deeply resentful ones, under Hapsburg rule. Similarly with how Germany responds to such changes in Austria. If the military has been reduced enough in influence it could well allow reforms but if not you could see elements supporting more reactionary elements in Austria.

Problem for Britain in a new alliance with Russia is that it might alienate Japan, although with the strong German presence in the Pacific this could mean Japan and Russia, both fairly democratic and liberal in this scenario, recognising Germany is the primary threat to each of them. Note I'm not expecting anything formally occurring for a few years but all three powers are likely to see the common threat requires a common response and at least some defensive planning on how they can support each other if attacked by Germany. Italy could also become attached in this scenario but its likely to be more aware of its economic weakness, especially if it manages to avoid a collapse into fascism, and hence an even more cautious member of such a counter balancing group.

There is going to be continued tension in Europe and around the world, with other powers involved where their interests are affected.

What everyone builds is up to you - that scenario should discuss the ships that will be build and why.
But you overlook some points.
The G/N-class was only possible with the british knowledge about the german ships. Here they have no such knowledge, so this TL G3-class is completly different to OTL. 

Personally i agree - the british will build like hell new ships.
The question is - will they learn the right things out of the two defeats?
the dec-14-number is one of numbers, numerical superior germans kill inferior numbers, slaughter em. Message: we need much more ships.
the 15-jutland engagement is allready with lowered numbers, propably the british learn about inferior ammo (that is something they should learn out of this), but also that german ships are much tougher then their own ones (without inspecting taken german ships UK lack the knowledge - this is often ignored. they do not know how to build a good protected ship, UK learned that by inspecting german ships). the only ones who do this right in the moment are USA and germany. 

With no funding problems - as we both agree UK will build tons of bigger, better battleships, i can´t see the need to build the G-class.
The lessons are: bigger guns, better hitratio, greater shooting range, more numbers, tougher ships.

Basically you could do that with an armored HOOD-class, just 10.000ts more, 3kn less and 12x15", later 12x16" in 4 triple-turrets, 400mm belt, 150mm deck... because another lesson the british will learn - you need no extreme different max. speed, just a good speed in tough ships. 
If they could loose Renown and Repulse it would be a benefit, cause they are completly useless ships in this TL. 

The USA - i haven´t mentioned them, because they could go every path.
From "outbuilding everyone" to the OTL stuff... slow stable ships

the political aspects  of the german victory.
France is broken in economic terms, but could still recover and still have a large(r) army.
the british need a much larger army (20 divisions regulars, 40 divisions reserve), with HUGE ammounts of ammo. All sides suffered by the shell crisis, nobody will repeat this mistake. 
UK will try to improve conditions with france, if that is succsessfull they have another base in europe.

Austria will face some hardship and problems, but with such scenario (easy victory in the east from 1915 on, no Brusilov-operation) i see em survive the 20ties and 30ties. Esp. with a strong germany at their side.

The osmans - you seem to forgot them. They are a strong power, getting stronger and stronger each year. More and more german railroads improving the communication in the country, so a large german army could be shifted easily to palestine or southern iraq. That is not good for the british... esp., with suez in danger. And nothing they could do about.

I see UK trying to build up a front against germany, with france (possible), italy (possible), russia (nope - they will not be their friend, they suffered terrible in area but UK not), japan (okay)... 

THe south africans will not be happy about the german colony, but who gave it back? it was the british empire, so the hate against the british will be 10times of the hate against the germans. 

Australia and NewZealand will demand more protection, against german bases... esp. with New Caledonia in german hands (noumea). That is an island big enough for 2-3 marine divisions, nice coastal artillery, large depots, ports, all the nice stuff to harm the communication and supply lines to and from the british isles to this zone.

We do not know if the dutch enter the german camp - sometimes around 1920-22, with japan enlarging its navy this could happen.

Germany possess now colonies world wide, they had learned how important the tradewar/merchant war with UK was (Emdens raids and the disruption it caused was well understood), the germans even have now a nice base in the osman areas (they will negotiate that) and in Deutsch-Ostafrika... for UK it is a knive pointed at their heart...

also, if the british start troubles in german colonies, the german do the same in - india. I can´t see UK beeing so stupid in this situation.
We have also not discussed ireland - will it gain liberty or do we see a brutal massacre, angering the USA massivly? 

OTL russia and germany had generally good terms, only the french money and the problems with Austria in the balkan made that impossible. The "new" germany (for me it is 100% clear that reforms will happen - still a kaiser, but with less power and no unfair 3-class-election system) could offer generous terms in trading... esp. after france no longer could finance the russian economic rise.
If you add the "japanese problem" - russia and germany have no love for them, you even could see russia join the germans (and get their reparations reduced to nil - there is lots of leverage and the kaiser was allways found for the romanovs)

Japan face some very unfriendly decisions, they had made their 21 demands, burning their bridges to china.
Germany wil be VERY angry and hateful for not getting back "their" colonies. So they will invest in china... just like OTL. Money is money and china is a nice place to make it. With no tsingtau, the german government could be seen as a good guy in china. 

This could bring either a conflict or a joint venture by the USA and germany! With both wanting trade it could be more the second... the dutch would want safety from japanese thread, so an alliance is possible. For germany a win-win-situation, getting rubber and stuff cheaper is good for them, also they get a base on their way to new caledonia.

The fallout of no german patents in Entente/US-hands we haven´t discussed, also the point that in germany science will be concentrated even more as OTL in the 20ties.

The british ships (G/N-class) was heavily influenced by the captured german ships, that got intense inspections by the british admirality. Esp. the protection against water was vastly superior to anything the british had.
The german "light weight"-shells, the kind of superior gun material, the methods to take distance to the enemy ships, everything was analyzed and copied. The german torpedos (60cm-ones) were basically taken and build in their Nelson class otl.

So it is very interesting how you could think that the british ship designs wasn´t significant influenced by the german ships. 
Personally i see british ships in that scenario VASTLY inferior in protection compared to OTL. They will have still no clue how to build ships that don´t sink after minor damages to submerged areas. Compare british and german ships in this area and you get the point. A british ship eat a torpedo and basically was lost, a german one eat 2-3 and go home. 
Same with optical range finding systems...

The lessons learned from TTL battles are:
a.) numbers - the first defeat was because v.Ingenohl fought with the whole fleet against a part of the RN. Losses by gunfire were serious, hit ratio of british ships would have been bad.
b.) jutland would show the weakness of flash, with the lessons learned from the first battle, you could bet that the british would suffer similar casulties... so after TTL jutland the british would improve flash protection... but would they understand that their shells suck? I doubt it, TTL Jutland see different numbers, no run-to-the-south after a Gefechtskehrtwendung... 

Sometimes for sure the british will learn that their shells suck, but we can´t be sure they know in 1916. Maybe later, maybe in a second war? 

The weakness in night fighting will not be discovered. I made the plot, so nope. Communication will be seen as a problem, but that is obvious after the BC force was wiped out.  It is not, repeat not a 1:1 copy of jutland, just the engagement will happen here, the (reduced) RN fight the HSF, with a clash of the scouting forces and - with the QE-class involved the sinking of many british ships by the superior german shooting and blowing up cruisers. The engagement with the GF is less impressive, no crossing the T... just two parallel fleets shelling each other. With some torpedo attacks and a turn (gefechtskehrtwende) by the germans and opening the distances ... 

the major war will be the kleinkrieg, in the channel... read the plot description. With the german front at Boulogne-sur-mare, they can havoc the coastal traffic, esp. from late 14 to mid 15. (after they destroyed a significant part of the RN). 

All sides understood that small units are needed, these need to be reliable (german side - british small ships were fine), mines and subs and fast small boats that could hunt larger cruisers and obsolete armored cruisers.
these will suffer terrible, because they lack any protection against mines/torpedos. So here you could have the british learning (the very hard way) that their ships suck in underwaterprotecion.

The Royal Navy couldn´t build good diesels - otl they gained german sources, forbad the germans to build large diesels. Here - they lack the reliable diesels and their enemy has the good ones. TTL has nothing to do with OTL. 
True - the jump of better and more powerfull steam engines will push speed up the scale, but the question is still "protection versus speed".
With the two different battles, with maybe wrong lessons (possible) out of TTL jutland, the british could even jump on the "more speed is better"-false way. 

THis doesn´t mean the british couldn´t build some 55.000ts G3-class battleships with 26kn, 400mm belt, 200mm deck and 9x18" guns, but the ships itself would not be the great design the OTL ships were. Lack of adequate and working protection against flood make em vulnerable to torpedo/mine-hits.

The G3 are interesting ships, but they are no wonderweapons. They are expensive, lack aft fire, the theoretical speed advantage is not as big as they think... also the concentration on these ships will cause a reaction by other nations. The USA for sure could build easily 4times the numbers of larger and better ships, if they want to do it. Esp. after a war in that the british gained nothing but costs. For sure they could afford to build 20 such ships because with the war ending in late 16, they do not ruin their economy as they did otl, but the question is :will they do it? they will face social unrest, even more as otl, ireland is a bomb that could detonate, not getting anything from the osmans, propably facing a hostile russia (that will not start anything in europe, but - with germany offering them support if they do so) that restart the great game, having unrest in their dominions (australia, new zealand, the south africans) and demands for strong army and navy units here (raising costs again)) it is questionable if such ships will happen and in the numbers. 

Esp. the lack of german patents, secrets and real ships make the british falling behind for 10-20 years in certain technologies... not having these weapons/ships mean they need to do it themself. 


The german navy would not change its tactics... why should they (yes they should, but they wouldn´t). They get forced to change it because of underfounding the expensive battle-line. They get their Mackensens (3-6... depends on the story), but otherwise they hang with 28cm-gun-Hex and 30,5cm-gun-battleships that could no longer hope to crush enlarged QE-ships (that is more realistic in 1916-19, because of the losses they need NUMBERS... so i see 10-15 enlarged QE-class ships, maybe 10x38cm (5x2) or 12x38cm (4x3), with around 26kn, better belt, more deck armor... till 1920/21 they will build them to replace losses.
Repulse and Renown could be build as HMS-Hood-class-ships, just like 4 and repeatet 4 Admiral-class Battlecruisers, with 30-31kn, better armor (basically HMS Hoods)... these will be build till 1920-22, then they build a new - revolutionary new battleship. But before they will build numbers.

For germany this means they face no longer HMS Dreadnought and Orion but these vastly superior 42-45.000ts battleships and 49.000ts Battlecruisers...  but they could not spent the money to counter this... so they look for other methods. 

Your comment about the german colonies make no sense for me.
OTL the colonies worked fine for germany - with the exception of the hereros rebellion in 1904-05. 
Here they have hundredthousends of battlehardened soldiers who could get the offer to move into these areas, in that they could build up a new home. Esp. the soldiers who face trouble after the trench war could use this instead of moving into the USA.

To man a port in say Deutsch-Südwest you need not much. Some older CL, some Pre-DN that get their guns removed, sub-tender, some older t-boats... that is enough for 1917-27. You build up infrastructure, move older weapons to it. Thats it.
The germans knew they could not hold such bases against serious enemy forces... but as a refuling station for 6-12 months, as a thorn in the side of the british empire, they are very usefull. v.Lettow-Vorbeck had shown how a german unit could fight "evil enemies"...

with the belgian congo beeing german you see also significant forced protecting this "goldmine"... 

the colonies allways have the same structure.Put in some army units, some (older) air force groups, later replaced by more modern planes... seaplanes, some tenders, repair facilities, later some docks, yards. 
In the congo you see some fortresses (the germans have an abundancy of heavy guns, from 21cm to 38cm,), a bit concrete, some bunkers and the british get serious headache to take such bases. Add in some minefields, some railroads into the internal, for some base here - voila... have fun to prepare 6 months, 200k soldiers, a battlegroup and later a lot forces to fight in the internal of the colony.

Add in new caledonia and madagscar, the two colonies the germans took from the french, that will give them another headache. 

South africa is angry? Hell, yes... but all the diamonds and gold in Deutsch-Südwest will attract tons of people... in the same time the germans will have lots of unhappy citicens, they could bring into the colonies. 

German ship-building industry, OTL in 1914 the most efficent in the world will grow, lots of german build freighters, around 1922-23 lots of diesel driven ships... these cost the british a lot of jobs (not good in the port areas), 

Russia - the main point is this: Russia wanted war with AH to dominate the balkan. That is done.
They also suffered major casulties in men, material - the tsar was removed and replaced by his uncle (for the young son) in a moderate reformed state.
This is still a major factor, but with a new baltic state, with some poland (out of russian poland) and the romanians taking side (to gain bessarabia) they are pushed to the east. On the balkan they have lost any influence. So what could they do? 
Trying to fight the germans another round? with the similar or worse end? Or look to punish the japanese who insulted em in 1905.. with the support of the germans. Who never had a real problem with russia. And - with UK, the country that had played the great game quite long... and they - the russians could again play that game, for india. 

Japan will keep its taken areas, but pay money for them. Germany took New Caledonia from france for that. They will try to bind the dutch to them, so they also have an operation base for their navy... and another source of oil, rubber, tin and other stuff they need. 
The netherlands in 1914 were neutral and - as far as i know quite pro-german, i can´t say this will be the same in this scenario, but if they are in the Mitteleuropa-concept the germans would push, they could benefit a lot. Still neutral in mlitary things, ordering battleships in german yards, making money... you get the concept. The danes will be very silent, they do not gain what they get OTL, but otherwise they had nothing to fear from germany. Closing the straits is a given, otherwise they are left alone.

Italy - italy was opportunistic. Here italy made lots of money by staying neutral. Italy will not be open hostile to germany or AH, they will be neutral. Their interests in the balkan are doomed, but the question is will this italy (no Mussolini) risk its existence to fight germany? What could they gain? Nothing, just millions of deaths for british glory? Really - i can´t see them doing this. Also - making money with germany helps em a lot. So why risking this? Germany would need italian workers, esp. with france broken and no longer able to absorb the italian workers... i see em going to germany... 

The osmans - here they had minor conflicts, some exterminated arabian rebells, a strong ally with germany who had invested millions and will invest another load of money. Esp. with all debts by france and UK gone, they could happily order in germany. The british insult (the two captured battleships) have burned all bridges, with knowledge about the plans to dismantle the osman empire the wish to work with them will be further reduced.
So the bagdad-railroad will build, the net will be denser and more and more infrastructure - made in germany - will be established. The kirkut-oil will come online, bringing lots of money into the osman bag. 
With german companies holding shares this could be easily the "osman century".. for sure there will be unrest, some troubles, but nothing that would tear it appart. In opposition, the osmans and germans sitting at the sinai, building railroads through palestine and syria will cause a lot troubles in the british parliament. 

As i mentioned, the osmans took over the russian zone of influence in persia... expect the osman army - together with german friends, sitting here. Cyprus, that is difficult. if the british sit here expect strong osman forces hanging around... also more and more forces - mobile forces ready to take the channel. Also railroads to the south, to akkaba, to the gulf of oman. Hard pushed to take over provinces to make life more miserable for the british empire... the osmans will be - next to germany an archenemy of the british. 

Austria OTL was fine till mid1918... here no instability will happen. In opposition, the italians in AH will either leave or accept to be austrians, the austrian army will not tolerate any "rebellions" any more. Italy is way to weak to even say a word... so either accept it or "accept" it. THe balkan is messy, but a strong bulgaria, a partly satisfied romania (in bessarabia) and a "removed" serbia leave greece. What could they do? the osmans as an offical german partner is sarcosant, the same with bulgaria. Greece could accept everything or get wiped out as a political or military force. Propably greece will do nothing... there is still the infight between the king and the pro-Entente-chancelor, who - after the defeat of the entente - will be very calm. 

In this timeline there is no armenian massacre - again you seem to think everything of OTL need to be repeated.
Here the spark for it doesn´t happen at all. Russia face worse defeats earlier, the armenians do not hope for russian rescue.
 
The osman empire is kept together by the german partner, who want a calm and working state, in that they could do buisness.
Some leaders - like Atatürk - will come to existence, they could either change the regime or rise in it. 

A 1918-army could not move quickly through the sinai, a 1928-army, full motorized, with hundreds of bombers, hundreds of fighters, mobile artillery, tanks could do it. Esp. with a finished double-track railroad through palestine, another one going to bagdad and into syria. The british either loose their channel - desaster - or keep calm. I bet they keep calm here. Basically you can move 3 german armies, motorized - from berlin to the sinai in 2 months - peacetime. 1 month if war errupt. 
How fast can the british move significant forces to alexandria?


Or, think about basra... the osmans could build a strong military base here... full of osman and german motorized forces.... i love the british reaction to this. Or subs and cruisers operating in the red sea, the persian gulf From Deutsch-Ostafrika, all in the same time. 
How could the british build 2-4 large armies, significant enough to stop a 3-Army strike by a german army, in the same time protect the british isles from an invasion (even if not possible, do they know it?), build a huge navy, face japanese forces and ambitions in china and the pacific.
Yeah, also russians again looking to india.. .
The OTL british oil comes form the gulf... here it is an unsecure source, they cannot hope to defend. 


In the USA you had no "german-removing" effect as OTL by WW1, so you still have significant german-americans beeing active. Add in the unsolved ireland-question and the USA could be more anti-british as anti-german. Esp. if the second offers interesting terms, contracts and deals - china for example. 

As strange as it sounds, germany loosing tsingtau makes the position of germany much better. So more deals with china (angers japan, germany makes money), helps relationship with the USA in this sector. 

German bases in Kaiser-Wilhelm-Land and Bismarck-Archipel mean the british need signifcant naval and army forces "ready", in case of war. UK has to invest much more in its military, to calm down the dominions, in the same time they cannot defend their blood line (channel of suez) if the germans and osmans want to cut it of, the same germans who allready had surpassed em in industrial output 1914 that will now be even stronger. 

Yes, social reforms, propably some SPD-ruled seasons will reduce the tensions a bit, but every time a conservative german party win an election the british will cry - the same negative "copenhagen the hun"-speeches will be public, will fuel the hate in germany. 

Loosing this war this way mean the british had lost any hope to control or even influence the continent. Best behaviour would be a true peace with germany, accepting its "place" and do not start troubles but try to make economic deals both profit. But i doubt both sides would do it.