Soviet Domination - A Red Dawn story

Just had a thought...after the events of the invasion of the American mainland, many more people are going to support the Second Amendment ITTL...

The s*** looks like it will hit the fan in Central America. Repeatedly.

Don't know, probably the contrary; if you recall the film opening scene, there is close up on the typical sign of the NRA 'you can have my gun from my cold dead hand'...and a soviet soldiers that take it from someone that tried to fight them with an handgun.
For me the bulk of the so-called survivalist, gun hoarders, NRA tough guys and wanna-be militia lasted more or less picosecond against the commie, with the Wolverines being litteraly one of the handfull example of succesfull guerrilla groups without big support from the regular forces.
Post-war USA will be a very very different place, experience years of modern warfare on your territory do a lot of serious numbers to your society and create a lot of nasty consequences even if you win

(87)

April 1983:

Mexico had become a kleptocracy. The institutions of the state were one big giant excuse for so many to get rich, filthy rich, and steal from anyone and everyone. A lot of those involved didn’t even see what they did as theft. It was the way things were done. They deserved the money which they took because… well… they were the ones who really ran Mexico. Others didn’t delude themselves into thinking that it was their right: they knew full well what they were doing was wrong and they would be in trouble if ever caught. None of those on the take, in a set-up which would make a Mafioso chieftain proud, ever thought that the good times would come to an end. There would always be more money, the money tap would never be turned off. They were going to steal every penny if they could too for no one was ever going to stop them. Two of the biggest state organisations were intricately linked in the whole thing: the ruling PRI party – the party of government in a fully-rigged system – and the state oil company PEMEX. Senior officials, executives, politicians and managers were the ones who ended up with money which wasn’t meant to be theirs but rather belonged to the state and thus the Mexican people. Officially, most of the money stolen actually remained with the state treasury too: the figures were fiddled and no one was meant to be none the wiser. The scale of the theft in terms of the money taken, not how widespread it actually was, had increased dramatically in recent years. The country’s oil boom had made Mexico rich on paper as a nation state while the bank accounts of those stealing what they could were inflated dramatically alongside that: accounts held abroad too. Mexico sold oil overseas and received export revenues for that oil, much of which came in valuable foreign currency. That income wasn’t then spent on further oil extraction infrastructure as would be expected, to grow the industry even further, but instead used for the needs of the state and to balance the budget. The oil industry kept on growing though: the vast majority of Mexico’s exports were its cheap oil. This was financed instead by loans from foreign banks, loans which charged a rather high rate of interest. Mexico had been doing this for years. By April 1983, Mexico had run up a foreign debt to banks in the United States, Western Europe and Japan of almost twenty billion US Dollars. Servicing that debt with interest payments was staggering thirty percent of all of that oil export revenue. As to all this money coming in and out, and with the oil going out, that was where the theft took place. There was so much money going here & there & everywhere, little real regulation and a lot of people who behaved as they had always done when it came to taking their cut of the state’s money. There was graft, there were high-paying no-show jobs, there were under-the-counter oil sales (as well as some interesting ‘From Mexico’ labels attached to Iraqi oil on the international market). Money was going all over the place. The Peso was valued higher than it had ever been and not all of the foreign currency brought in from oil sales were spent on imports of good because Mexico’s own currency was valued by some. On paper, it all looked fine. Almost all of those in senior positions within the PRI, PEMEX and the Mexican Treasury were taking their cut out of the big pie, every day trying to figure out how to steal more. The good times would never come to an end. However, it was one big house of cards waiting for a strong breeze to bring Mexico’s oil boom and afterwards the whole national economy down.

A quarter of the population were out of work. There were ongoing infrastructure projects with transport links, oil extraction & pipelines and planned expansions to education & healthcare but still millions of Mexicans were unemployed. There had been fighting on Mexico’s southern border where the last stage of the Guatemalan Civil War had spilled over in places. More money was earmarked to buy weapons from the United States to allow Mexico to defend itself in a region growing increasingly volatile. Ethnic tension in the Chiapas region with the Mayan people – joined by half a million refugees from Guatemala – was rife and had seen violence. There was other violence elsewhere in the nation with a rise in gun crime. There had been troubles with the unions, the established ones for the oil industry and the new ones which had sprung up for all of the construction workers hired to build infrastructure: the government tried to restrict their growing power with intimidation and violence used against them. President President Javier García Paniagua had taken over from López Portillo back in December. He had been gifted his position by the outgoing president – a tradition in the PRI, like the stuffing of the ballot boxes – and had at once increased his predecessor’s domestic spending. He had been chosen over the economic technocrat who was Miguel de la Madrid Hurtado because López Portillo had believed that he had left the country in good financial hands; with García Paniagua, Mexico would have a bigger international role as well as seeing internal improvements brought on by a (supposedly) gifted political populist. It was García Paniagua who was in power for less than five months when, all of a sudden, the markets in the West and then those banks to which Mexico owed all of that money suddenly turned on his country with an apparent fury.


García Paniagua would declare that he would ‘defend the Peso like a rabid dog’ when it came under attack. He dramatically addressed the Mexican people in a manner to suggest that what happened when international currency speculators started short-selling the Peso was an intentional act by the rest of the world. It really wasn’t. The Peso was overvalued. That was corrected first by speculators and then by the rest of the world markets. Everyone could see it once the cloud of long-term delusion was lifted… once someone else was willing to admit it first. The stock market in Mexico City plunged with that. The state treasury was ordered to do just as García Paniagua said he would and defend the Peso: the honour of the Mexican people was at stake. That was done by using up the country’s foreign currency reserves to try and sure up the national currency. There was a problem there though: the money wasn’t where it was supposed to be. On paper it was, but in reality so much of it was elsewhere with those who weren’t supposed to have it. US Dollars, Pound Sterling, West German Marks and Japanese Yen had been stolen. That was what the more greedy took in the massive ongoing theft rather than Pesos for the less able. Until it was far too late, this inability to use money supposed to be there but what really wasn’t where it was meant to be was realized.

The attack on the Peso was only the beginning. Mexico’s economy was shown to be weak. There were those with nefarious motives who moved to take advantage but also those with responsibility to their institutions as lenders who all saw what in a terrible place Mexico was at this time. They all made their moves. The speculators started short-selling oil futures and made a killing as they started a crescendo of further short-selling by those worried about their own investments. Then there were the banks to which Mexico owed money and then further banks owed money by those banks. All had a stake in Mexico’s economic future. Maybe they could have helped prop it all up… but they didn’t. No one wanted to be the last one left with Mexican debt. There was the ever-growing American domestic oil extraction going on where recent promising news had come and needed to be considered: Mexico had grown rich by supplying the United States when the Arabs were seen as causing problems but now the Americans had so much more of their own oil coming on-line. When one big US oil company cancelled a contract at the last minute with PEMEX – concerned over the currency collapse and willing to take the contractual fines because half of those were in Pesos – that was the key for the utter failure in confidence with those banks. Mexico was seen as possibly at risk of losing its biggest oil market if this continued. Unwillingly, that was to be caused by those fearing it would happen. The banks started to look at their balance sheets with the loan amounts, the interest payments and the Peso hitting the floor when strangely the Mexicans weren’t spending the foreign currency reserves like they had been. It was almost as if they didn’t have that money like they were supposed to… International bankers didn’t like what they saw. One bank let it be known that in May they would be calling for repayment of their massive loan. Other banks started to do the same. The news got out and the currency speculators now sent the Peso through the floor. Mexico had nothing to prop their currency up with and nothing to fall back on in terms of currency reserves. This was all pretty bad. Worse was to come next month, much worse.

There is worse coming, update tomorrow.
A big bloody mess.
Non-war losses will be bad too with hunger and civil strife across the Third World once international trade / aid gets turned off.

It looks a lot like Kennedy will manage to blow up NATO. That really won't be nice in any way.

I always thought that Western Europe in Red Dawn gave at the USA and allies all possible help short of Dow, intelligence first and humanitarian help immediately after...stretching the meaning of neutrality sure, but in a moment that the Soviet can't do really nothing about it unless they want expand the conflict.; the trouble come for the other aspect of help. Military supplies will be very important and i see Europe give what they can, the problem is that they also need that gear as they also face the strong possibility to be dragged in the war; the most probable option will be give system like M-60 and Leopard 1 (that the USA and Canada also use) and all the possible ammunition while introducing as fast as possible new equipment like the Leopard 2 or the AMX-32/40 or the OF-40 to take the place of what given away...the catch is that it will not a free givenaway, toys like this cost and a rearmament plan like that is not cheap, so some pretty strong contribution from the allies will be expected. Same for money (long modern war are not cheap), i also expect (discreet) financial aid...that will not be a (total) gift

The problem with NATO is that is still operative all the rest of the continent will be obbliged to enter the war as the Soviet invasion is a clear aggression and involve also european nations and usually nation will stick to treaty...or at least have a good catch to follow the letter of the treaty but not the spirit. IMVHO the best option is that NATO is no more, but there are still a lot of american troops and gear here as they were in the process of leaving the continent.

Regarding the third world, well the only bright side on this situation it's that Europe will stop the habit of destroy the surplus food and it will be a good occasion to rethink the common agricolture politics (after all WWIII it's the only real scenario when this is at least plausible).

Edit: Sweden and Austria, will probably try to attach themselfs at the european neutral bloc so to have greater security, expecially with nation like Norway attacked; i expect their petition to join the WEU/EEC within a week from the start of the war. Same for Israel, even if they probably get a treatment just a little better than Morocco and Turkey

  James

  Did you mean to have Ireland in the war?  Also not quite sure why Portugal was attacked?  It has some potential useful bases for the allies but I would have thought attacking it and Norway would be more likely to drag the rest of European NATO is as that would pose a threat to them all.  Can see Britain being attacked because of its strategic position and also the fact its likely to be helping the US and seeking to defend Belize.  However not so certain about the other two.  [Mind you with his behaviour so far Ireland might be the only European country favourable to Kennedy's government when the s**t hits the fan. ]

  Interesting that Paraguay ends up active as well but no one else in southern America other than Chile.

  On the question of the US and the 2nd Amendment I can see an increase in gun sales in the run up to the war and a lot of people trying to use them when the invasion comes.  However as you say their going to be very vulnerable against regular forces, even when operated by basically 3rd world regimes and I fear the death toll with be very high.  Which probably means when the US gets its act together retaliation will be harsh as well.

  In the East I see that China and Japan are drawn in, which will make for some uncomfortable bed-fellows and it probably also means Korea ends up united. Which could however be very costly for Seoul and its vicinity. 

PS  Just seen Luke's post and as he points out it really needs NATO to be dead in the water because not only will it be in their self interest to support attacked allies in Europe but also its a treaty requirement. 

  Europe is likely to stop destroying surplus food during the conflict because it will need it to feed its own people with imports of food and other stuff, like fertilizer cut off.  However I would say this is more likely to make the continental powers especially and possibly even Britain, more determined to maintain the CAP as it will have shown its use.  Especially if as likely the post-war world is pretty disorderly - to put it mildly I fear.

  Steve