Soviet Domination - A Red Dawn story

Steve.
Ireland is purposely blue on that map. For each and every country there is a reason which I shall give including Chile, Paraguay and all the others. The only things which might change are Argentina and Papua New Guinea: I can't recall why I have the latter in.
Korea will certainly be united!
I hadn't really considered the food issue but that is now in my notes. It will be a long hard first winter for the UK with threats all around and trade disrupted.
The Western European issue with NATO neutrality defining a new version of neutrality is something to be addressed, so too West Berlin stuffed full of US / UK troops but also neutral French soldiers and West German civilians.
All of this including hope to explore / explain.

So Ceausescu did a Tito on the Soviet Union.

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May 1983:

The Peso had been sent crashing to the floor. Then through it. Afterwards it was pushed down into the basement and to the foundations. The international markets didn’t give up. The pounding which Mexico’s currency took was extraordinary. For so long everyone had been willing to go along with the lie over what it was worth and the underpinning of that with Mexico’s supposedly good economic situation. That lie no longer held water. When Mexico was unable to defend the Peso, abruptly ceasing using foreign currency reserves, more of which it was supposed to have but seemingly didn’t, and that told the speculators everything. They were followed by anyone who had any Pesos not yet sold who decided that the only thing to do was to get rid of what they had and do it now. The foreign debt crisis got worse too. Those Western banks which said they would call in their debts kept their word and did so. We want our money back, please. Mexico didn’t have it to give. President García Paniagua tried to get other governments to stop their banks from doing this though with very little success made. That really wasn’t the source of the follow-up problem that came though. Those banks could demand all they wanted but there was no money to give. Mexico couldn’t get its hands on any money because the state’s money wasn’t there and then came the massive departure of private money from Mexico. Some capital flight had come at the end of April; most came at the beginning of May. Savers and investors pulled their money from Mexico’s banks before the government could use that money to save Mexico’s economy from the freefall it was in. The money went abroad… apart from the Pesos held by private individuals and companies who sold those dirt cheap and really fast only adding to the bonfire which was Mexico’s national currency. Hundreds of millions of foreign currency was transferred out of Mexico, starting first with a lot of stolen money held by those who didn’t want to face the questions which would come as to why it was there and not with the state where it belonged. Following that came the legally-held money. It went all over the world, anywhere but remaining in Mexico. At the last minute, far too late, and urged on from sources domestic and foreign, García Paniagua tried to stop that but to no avail. Only the very foolish left their money behind and there were few of those left after they had witnessed the events of the past few weeks.

Mexico’s stock market was bottomed-out. The Peso was useful only as toilet paper (well… that was how it was seen anyway). There was no money in the state treasury and the banks were empty of private money. García Paniagua had spent the past couple of weeks angry, distraught, raging at foreign conspiracies and in tears at his own ability to stop what happened. Despite all of that, life in Mexico continued. These events didn’t have an immediate effect upon ordinary Mexicans. The newspapers were full of the details though for most people, that was someone else’s problem. Currency speculation, currency overvaluation and capital flight were terms not terrible confusing but what it all meant for the ordinary Mexican wasn’t understood. They would find out soon enough. Mexico still had bills to pay. Those banks in the West with their demands were one thing but there were other things that the sate had to pay for from aboard. Domestically, there were bills to pay too. All that oil, loads of it, was still there and Mexico was ready to sell it and therefore those bills could be paid. That appeared to be a simple way out of the situation. But it really wasn’t that easy. The international markets didn’t work that way. Mexico was tainted at the moment. Some speculators cast envious eyes on what Mexico had to offer and pondered over whether there would be a fire sale. The oil industry might be up for grabs and other national assets too. It depended on whether García Paniagua was prepared to do that or try to figure another way out of this crisis. He was running out of time. He would have to make a decision on what to do with only terrible options. Default on all the country’s debts and face years of repercussions or have a fire sale where everything was up for grabs? Or… do nothing and hope for a miracle?


A lot of the capital flight went to Panama (some to stay, the rest to move on) and this especially came through the work of one particular bank to get private money – legally and illegally obtained – out of Mexico before the state could get its hands on it. That bank was BCCI, an international bank and quite the notorious outfit. BCCI specialised in ‘hot money’. It held accounts for criminals, drug traffickers, terrorists and intelligence organisations including both the CIA and the KGB: the latter had last year used money funneled through BCCI and then Stasi-controlled cut-outs to help fund the West German anti-nuclear movement. The bank asked few questions about the money from Mexican sources. When it all arrived in Panama, the money came into a country where General Noriega had just finished ‘cleaning house’. Torrijos’ demise had seen him afterwards secure his position. A puppet president was installed – a civilian fully under Noriega’s control – while behind the scenes, Noriega took out key supporters of Torrijos. Some vanished, others were murdered and more were arrested on trumped up charges. A hell of a lot of corruption was uncovered by the state’s officials and Panama acted like a responsible nation in arresting those who’d been committing financial crimes and stealing money belonging to the people (incoming Mexican money was untouched though). However, much of that got diverted in transit to BCCI accounts held by Noriega, some in Panama and others overseas.

El jefe – as Noriega was being referred to by others – was busy not just at home. He was looking at meddling further abroad than he had been before. The Cubans directly asked for nothing but they wanted his help. The American contacts of Noriega’s with the CIA came calling seeking his favour as well, just like they always did. Noriega would continue to play them both of against each other, just like he had always done. Torrijos’ dream of regaining the Canal Zone wasn’t one which Noriega had always been fully behind but as el jefe, he knew that his predecessor had got the people behind that. He would work towards carrying on with that where Torrijos left off for the sake of public opinion but at the same time still convinced by what Fidel had told him: the Americans would never give that up without a fight. That was a fight which Noriega was sure he’d lose, especially on his own and even if Panama had Cuba behind it. No, elsewhere would get his attention. He had interests and motivations in neighbouring countries. They would become those of Panama now Noriega led his country. The civil wars continued in their brutal fashion across El Salvador and Honduras: el jefe would become involved in them both.

I really don't envy the situation of the Mexican government, but they brought it onto themselves. They don't really have a lot of options. I think that they will be meeting some pretty outrageous demands, which will seriously anger the population, leading to a revolt and civil war.

  He was a die-hard dictator, and did actually die as a result when the rest of the Soviet empire fell but he often sought to carve a more independent path to Moscow.  Never quite as far as Tito in Yugoslavia but there was doubt back in the 80's as to how willing he would be to support an attack by the Soviets in Europe.

  Damn - should have read following threads.  ninjied by James.

  James

  OK right.  Looking with interest on how Ireland ends up losing its neutrality and what else to come.

  Depending on how long the war actually lasts the UK has the benefit of western Europe just across the Channel and if the Soviets are attacking from bases no nearer than the Baltic and Norway [and possibly Iceland] it should be possible to get some supplies in but as you say a lot of things are likely to get rather short.

  I think there are only fairly small and token garrisons in W Berlin and if the Soviets are determined to keep the bulk of NATO neutral its unlikely they would be attacked but the Soviets are likely to seek to make political capital out of it.  Possibly more significant is what happens to the Anglo-American forces in western Europe once its realised there's not going to be a general attack on continental Europe.  Especially with Britain under bombardment and the US under actual invasion I would expect that once that's realised they would seek to move those units out to help in the fighting war.  This should be fairly easy in terms of the air units but probably more difficult for the ground units.

  Steve