stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 23, 2018 22:04:19 GMT
Well, if we are on future prevision:
- yes, the EDA, if the Soviet not decide to add another front in the collection of war, is the biggest winner of the war due to the fact that has basically been untouched by the conflict...sorry but it's a fact and no, pointing that doesn't mean that one thinK/want the new european empire bossing around everyone, just a matter of fact pointing that in modern war the only winning move is not play; after that come just personal like and dislike and repulsion for european common organization.
If the EDA avoids combat or just makes a late grab for territory yes its been able to gain from the war. However at the cost of ducking treaty agreements which will mean its word will be worth very little. There will be continued distrust of it by the allies and other powers as a result even if it doesn't get stupid and try and throw its weight about. That's a statement of fact.
Of course if the Soviets do attack, even if their defeated this entire point is moot as the EDA is in as bad a start, or possibly worse that the US or Britain.
Agreed.
Possibly but W Germany will have enough problems if it is absorbing E Germany, even without a war.
Yes its a blow but the bulk of its population and industrial and economic power has been largely unaffected. It will take a fair bit of money to rebuild but the US will be able to afford that even if the EDA are being arseholes and the latter would make them even more mistrustful of the bloc. yes the USN has been badly hit but its still by far the most powerful in the world.
Unlikely, unless Thatcher has continued her OTL policies and still remains in power. Britain still has a huge amount of resources and if its excluded from the new EDA/EU so much the better for Britain as its not subsidising a rival. There is a decent chance that the war will sent Britain on a better path with the revival of national identity and unity and avoiding the disaster of the Thatcher period.
I think your letting the desire for a EU dominated world override your logic. At this point the bulk of Latin America is still dominated by right wing states that loath communism and also their not going to back a lost cause. Plus the fact the US is likely to be in a more aggressive mode will cause some resentment but also caution. Elements of Latin America may seek greater economic independence but their not going to risk a major clash with the US.
Its also a very rich and developed country and the direct impact of the war is probably already over as the Soviets are increasingly bogged down in China and losing in Korea. Coupled with the losses of the Soviet Pacific fleet I very strongly suspect that there is little or know attacks on Japan from this point on. One of its biggest markets, the EDA area may be unaffected, unless you assume that the EDA also goes even more protectionist and Japan is still the best producer of a vast range of products at this point. The butterflies from the conflict may well mean it avoids the OTL fiscal disaster at the start of the 90s' and one thing the war has removed is the future rival of China, plus weakened Taiwan and Korea.
Yes Taiwan is probably going to go off in a bad direction.
A lot could happen with the USSR. I suspect its going to die in the short term but how messy that will be and what impact that will have on neighbours is uncertain.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 23, 2018 22:10:53 GMT
The continuedback and forth in this thread about whether the US will still be a world power misses a major point. It will remain and economic power, and by extension, a major world power simply because of it size, resources, and economic base. That said, how much of a power depends heavily on how isolationist the country becomes after the war. My guess is very and is therefore relatively less powerful.
Agree on the 1st part. The 2nd less certain as it has fought a big war alongside important allies. Its likely to be distinctly more nationalistic but the world is too interlocked for a retreat into isolationism and many Americans are likely to think they need to be more involved to stop another such attack. There will be a lot of mistrust of the EDA powers, especially if they try and throw their weight around too much but there will be a recognition of the importance of the true allies they have.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 23, 2018 22:13:08 GMT
Looking at politics going forward. US will remember its friends, enemies and with most effect, its false friends, payback is a bitch as the saying goes. So US-UK links get stronger , EU-US links weaken etc. What was NATO probably ends up as two organizations, those that heeded the call in a US led pact, those that did not, a french led pact. Same sort of thing will happen in the Pacific and Americas. Germany may have issues with its export led economy due to both the effects of integrating the East and US resentment blocking access to US tech and running a whispering campaign. Lots of below the belt stuff will go on, Soviets will not be around but Germany is a convenient lighting rod for anger ( others can pass the blame for their actions by saying they could not do anything due to Germany saying No ).
Very likely you will see the emergency of two western blocs who are possibly bitter competitors.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Nov 23, 2018 22:16:48 GMT
Looking at politics going forward. US will remember its friends, enemies and with most effect, its false friends, payback is a bitch as the saying goes. So US-UK links get stronger , EU-US links weaken etc. What was NATO probably ends up as two organizations, those that heeded the call in a US led pact, those that did not, a french led pact. Same sort of thing will happen in the Pacific and Americas. Germany may have issues with its export led economy due to both the effects of integrating the East and US resentment blocking access to US tech and running a whispering campaign. Lots of below the belt stuff will go on, Soviets will not be around but Germany is a convenient lighting rod for anger ( others can pass the blame for their actions by saying they could not do anything due to Germany saying No ). Very likely you will see the emergency of two western blocs who are possibly bitter competitors.
No Eastern European Bloc ore will they not be able to survive without the Moscow masters.
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Post by eurowatch on Nov 23, 2018 22:21:30 GMT
Very likely you will see the emergency of two western blocs who are possibly bitter competitors.
No Eastern European Bloc ore will they not be able to survive without the Moscow masters. Any Eastern Bloc Will fall apart as soon as Russia stops sending them money and enforcing its rules. With the exception of maybe East Germany none of them were any fond of Moscow and Will jump ship as soon as they get the opportunity. Especially Poland.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 23, 2018 22:33:32 GMT
Very likely you will see the emergency of two western blocs who are possibly bitter competitors.
No Eastern European Bloc ore will they not be able to survive without the Moscow masters.
Very true if as I think likely the USSR is going to collapse shortly but that's a different matter. I was talking about a rump NATO and a EDA/EU national state if it really goes for quick unification. Which I think some of the supporters of the latter will approve of but will greatly screw their chances with other states, especially in E Europe, E Germany probably aside.
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crackpot
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Post by crackpot on Nov 24, 2018 13:23:35 GMT
Here is a thought... no matter what Mexico and China will end the war as burned out shells of their former selves. Central America a communist mess. If the Americans can turn the tide with their industrial heartland intact there will far less industrial flight. Mainly because there is no Mexico or China to ship industrial jobs to. That will go a long way to sustain economic recovery.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 24, 2018 14:58:52 GMT
Here is a thought... no matter what Mexico and China will end the war as burned out shells of their former selves. Central America a communist mess. If the Americans can turn the tide with their industrial heartland intact there will far less industrial flight. Mainly because there is no Mexico or China to ship industrial jobs to. That will go a long way to sustain economic recovery.
Very true, good point. Doubt central America will remain communist with its external support removed and a very angry US on the doorstep but its going to be a mess and China's devastation, damage in S Korea even if it doesn't absorb the south and distraction in Taiwan, along with the knock on effects in the neighbouring area the tiger economies are going to be a lot slower in developing if at all.
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Post by lukedalton on Nov 24, 2018 16:00:29 GMT
Here is a thought... no matter what Mexico and China will end the war as burned out shells of their former selves. Central America a communist mess. If the Americans can turn the tide with their industrial heartland intact there will far less industrial flight. Mainly because there is no Mexico or China to ship industrial jobs to. That will go a long way to sustain economic recovery.
Yes, but the problem is double faced, they are no more possible competition...but they are also no more client and frankly if Mexico and/or China will not become the sweatshop of the world, well the rest of South America and India can fill the void; not only that the economic recovery will be ampered by the need to return from wartime economy to peacetime, not considering that also many other important economic patner have they problems like the UK, Taiwan, South Korea and Canada. So unless the allied goverment plus the EEC/EDA don't pull another Bretton Woods type agreement, we can take as example the immediate aftermath of WWI as how the USA and the rest of the allied nation (and the rest of the world) will fare. And as i said many time before, the real elephant in the room is the dollar, the refuge currency of the world, the thing that give the USA some precious advantage in the world commerce and more important some pretty usefull privilege (it's not a coincidence that the USA rating is always on top regardless of the politican and economic situation) is now no more safe and just, honestly at the moment even the Indian Rupee and the Brazialian real will be more strong and stable; just that will mean a complete change in the world commerce. Finally one must consider how many people have died in the USA, as this has been the bloodiest and most destructive war fought by that nation...and that for some time America will see less immigration from the rest of the world, expecially of talented people, frankly a brain drain will more probable.
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Post by lukedalton on Nov 24, 2018 16:31:20 GMT
Well, if we are on future prevision:
- yes, the EDA, if the Soviet not decide to add another front in the collection of war, is the biggest winner of the war due to the fact that has basically been untouched by the conflict...sorry but it's a fact and no, pointing that doesn't mean that one thinK/want the new european empire bossing around everyone, just a matter of fact pointing that in modern war the only winning move is not play; after that come just personal like and dislike and repulsion for european common organization.
If the EDA avoids combat or just makes a late grab for territory yes its been able to gain from the war. However at the cost of ducking treaty agreements which will mean its word will be worth very little. There will be continued distrust of it by the allies and other powers as a result even if it doesn't get stupid and try and throw its weight about. That's a statement of fact.
Of course if the Soviets do attack, even if their defeated this entire point is moot as the EDA is in as bad a start, or possibly worse that the US or Britain.
Agreed.
Possibly but W Germany will have enough problems if it is absorbing E Germany, even without a war.
Yes its a blow but the bulk of its population and industrial and economic power has been largely unaffected. It will take a fair bit of money to rebuild but the US will be able to afford that even if the EDA are being arseholes and the latter would make them even more mistrustful of the bloc. yes the USN has been badly hit but its still by far the most powerful in the world.
Unlikely, unless Thatcher has continued her OTL policies and still remains in power. Britain still has a huge amount of resources and if its excluded from the new EDA/EU so much the better for Britain as its not subsidising a rival. There is a decent chance that the war will sent Britain on a better path with the revival of national identity and unity and avoiding the disaster of the Thatcher period.
I think your letting the desire for a EU dominated world override your logic. At this point the bulk of Latin America is still dominated by right wing states that loath communism and also their not going to back a lost cause. Plus the fact the US is likely to be in a more aggressive mode will cause some resentment but also caution. Elements of Latin America may seek greater economic independence but their not going to risk a major clash with the US.
Its also a very rich and developed country and the direct impact of the war is probably already over as the Soviets are increasingly bogged down in China and losing in Korea. Coupled with the losses of the Soviet Pacific fleet I very strongly suspect that there is little or know attacks on Japan from this point on. One of its biggest markets, the EDA area may be unaffected, unless you assume that the EDA also goes even more protectionist and Japan is still the best producer of a vast range of products at this point. The butterflies from the conflict may well mean it avoids the OTL fiscal disaster at the start of the 90s' and one thing the war has removed is the future rival of China, plus weakened Taiwan and Korea.
Yes Taiwan is probably going to go off in a bad direction.
A lot could happen with the USSR. I suspect its going to die in the short term but how messy that will be and what impact that will have on neighbours is uncertain.
- Taking in consideration that your definition of 'throwing his weight around' and 'being an arsehole' for the EEC/EDA/EU seem to be her mere existence i found difficult not see problems, jest aside, yes as i pointed out many and many times the arguments that i made are valid only if there no conflict or a very limited (conventional) one; and while there will be mistrust...usually nation tend to be very pragmatic when economic recovery and recostruction is necessary, expecially when the other side seem to be the only real game in town capable of give immediate support.
- The US Navy has lost among other things, 5 aircraft carrier and a lot of other vessel (plus trained personell), plus the post-war economy will not allow a lot of extra fund for rebuilt the navy; and yes the USA is still the most powerfull nation of the world but more because her competition is dead (China) or dying (URSS...probable) than because his effectively strong, and strong regional power like EDA and India can have much more influence locally than her and New York at the moment had lot less capacity of influence them.
- For the UK at the moment Thatcher policies are not the problem, the fact that oil revenue will be nill till they rebuilt the (costly) drill station in the NOrth Sea, that they have been merciless bombarded (centre of london included), that there have been great civil disturbance, that the cost of the war has been elevated (in term of men, money and ecquipment) are the problems. Plus having a bad relations with one of your biggest economic patner is not a sound move in the road for recovery.
- EDA can be Japan biggest market sure, but postwar can also see a strong diminishing of such trade...and not because of protectionism, but more because resources will be diverted for the rebuilding of nation like UK, Spain, Portugal, Norway and East Germany (and the rest of East Europe)
- I'm not letting my opinion of the EU influence my logic, as frankly the european union had never entered this equation; the fact that the relations between the USA and the rest of the Americas have been always 'complicated', that during the war they have behaved not very well even with nation that had supported them in the past (Argentina just to make an example, not considering the nuclear attack to Mexico city) and the fact that many will see the postwar weakness of the USA as a good occasion to get more distant from a very demanding friend, instead greatly entered the equation. The fact that regional organization will be seen as a good mean to do that, it's simple : strengh in numbers argument
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 24, 2018 17:30:25 GMT
If the EDA avoids combat or just makes a late grab for territory yes its been able to gain from the war. However at the cost of ducking treaty agreements which will mean its word will be worth very little. There will be continued distrust of it by the allies and other powers as a result even if it doesn't get stupid and try and throw its weight about. That's a statement of fact.
Of course if the Soviets do attack, even if their defeated this entire point is moot as the EDA is in as bad a start, or possibly worse that the US or Britain.
Agreed.
Possibly but W Germany will have enough problems if it is absorbing E Germany, even without a war.
Yes its a blow but the bulk of its population and industrial and economic power has been largely unaffected. It will take a fair bit of money to rebuild but the US will be able to afford that even if the EDA are being arseholes and the latter would make them even more mistrustful of the bloc. yes the USN has been badly hit but its still by far the most powerful in the world.
Unlikely, unless Thatcher has continued her OTL policies and still remains in power. Britain still has a huge amount of resources and if its excluded from the new EDA/EU so much the better for Britain as its not subsidising a rival. There is a decent chance that the war will sent Britain on a better path with the revival of national identity and unity and avoiding the disaster of the Thatcher period.
I think your letting the desire for a EU dominated world override your logic. At this point the bulk of Latin America is still dominated by right wing states that loath communism and also their not going to back a lost cause. Plus the fact the US is likely to be in a more aggressive mode will cause some resentment but also caution. Elements of Latin America may seek greater economic independence but their not going to risk a major clash with the US.
Its also a very rich and developed country and the direct impact of the war is probably already over as the Soviets are increasingly bogged down in China and losing in Korea. Coupled with the losses of the Soviet Pacific fleet I very strongly suspect that there is little or know attacks on Japan from this point on. One of its biggest markets, the EDA area may be unaffected, unless you assume that the EDA also goes even more protectionist and Japan is still the best producer of a vast range of products at this point. The butterflies from the conflict may well mean it avoids the OTL fiscal disaster at the start of the 90s' and one thing the war has removed is the future rival of China, plus weakened Taiwan and Korea.
Yes Taiwan is probably going to go off in a bad direction.
A lot could happen with the USSR. I suspect its going to die in the short term but how messy that will be and what impact that will have on neighbours is uncertain.
- Taking in consideration that your definition of 'throwing his weight around' and 'being an arsehole' for the EEC/EDA/EU seem to be her mere existence i found difficult not see problems, jest aside, yes as i pointed out many and many times the arguments that i made are valid only if there no conflict or a very limited (conventional) one; and while there will be mistrust...usually nation tend to be very pragmatic when economic recovery and recostruction is necessary, expecially when the other side seem to be the only real game in town capable of give immediate support.
No actually I've been thinking of the usual assumptions you and Eurowatch have of the EU or in TTL whatever political bloc the EDA becomes, of being control freaks and seeking to dominate everybody and the suggestions that the allies will be dependent on them because if the allies don't do what the 'EU' wants they will deny funds for reconstruction. One of you was even talking about France blocking the UK from whatever closed economic and military union would replace the EEC, which hardly sounds like a friendly act.
Exactly my point. Its relative position is greater than it was pre-war. As such it doesn't need to replace losses in the foreseeable future. The EDA can't threaten it because even if it desires an arms race it doesn't have the capacity to do so.
Actually wrong. Her policies to strip assets and reduce competition and economic opportunities are the major reason for the relative British economic decline in the recent decades. This might also change now especially since the surviving 'Wets' are likely to be strengthened. Also it would probably take less time to restore the oil rigs than you hope. Given that there is likely to be a shortage of oil prices are likely to be high and there is also the possibility of getting loans for reconstruction on the basis of those reserves even while their in the seabed. There will be a need for a lot of reconstruction and if the EDA play hard-ball with harsh conditions then it will take longer but it can still be done. This of course assumes that the EDA is in a condition to make sure loans/grants which is still to be seen.
That's assuming the EDA is willing to do that on non-commercial terms. And again that its in a position to do so. Even without and with the sometimes openly illegal protectionist polices employed during this period the EDA will still but a lot from Japan simply because its the most efficient producer in the world. If they don't plenty of other nations will be.
Yes they won't like the bullying but then to a degree their used to it and the US has won, which means a lot. Plus what options do they have? They will continue to trade with other powers but be economically and politically heavily influenced by the US and very likely continue to squabble among themselves.
As I have mentioned before you and eurowatch have assumed that because so far the TL has been a wank for the EDA its going to continue to do so. Very far from the case. They could still be attacked in which case they might end up in a worse condition that the US, let alone Britain. If they attack the Soviets they could find a nuclear response. If they don't attack and as seems very likely a new leadership in Moscow sees sense then they could be left fairly isolated and facing a continued Soviet empire, including all of eastern Europe and without being able to rely on allied support. Which would mean they would need to maintain something like the current defense spending/military commitments or higher which would be a serious economic problem.
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James G
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Post by James G on Nov 24, 2018 17:54:01 GMT
James Overall a good set of attacks. Tucson is going to be a problem, both politically and militarily and they did slightly overstretch themselves but their done a fair bit of damage, especially to Soviet air power as even if most of the a/c might have got away a lot of the supplies, spares and most of all the important support staff didn't so if nothing else its likely to suffer much more attrition than before. Also it hopefully will have drawn off some of the Soviet forces so their forthcoming offensive will be a bit weaker.
Steve
The issue there with the infrastructure at the lost airbases is something I've covered in the next update. It is something I missed with Arizona so added it in to the next one. Soviet forces being drawn off ahead of their big planned attack is going to happen elsewhere too: too many unreliable / weak allies to rely upon. Since the war is now coming to an end, I will make my guess on how it will go: -The EDA is going to launch a pre-emptive attack on the Soviet Union and break through their lines into East Germany. With their best troops elsewhere and little reserves to speak of the EDA is able to liberate all of East Germany. After seeing European successes right across the border Poland starts revolting and the EDA agrees to continue pushing further, eventually stopping and setting up a defence line along the Vistula river to not piss the Soviet Union of to much. In Sweden a combined Swedish-EDA attack breaks the Soviet lines and forces them to retreat or be encircled. Despite many “stand and fight” orders, the Baltic squadron begins evacuating troops as long as it can. With many troops freed up, Swedish, British and EDA forces can begin attacking the flanks and rear of the Soviet forces in Norway, eventually defeating them as well. Smaller attacks are launched to destroy the Soviet fleet in the Med, liberate the Azores and Iceland and possible Czechoslovakia, Romania and Hungary (depending on if they get victory disease or want to seriously weaken Soviet influence in Europe. With their invasion of the US collapsing and the China quagmire continuing on Moscow will agree for a cease-fire and later a peace treaty that will see them retreat from Finland, give the EDA control of all the countries it has liberated, hand Kaliningrad (now renamed back to Koningsberg) over to Germany and establish Poland as a neutral buffer state. After the war is over, Norway, Spain, Portugal and Finland will join the EDA. Tough a combination of French snootyness and Thatcher's stubbornes, Britain will not be allowed to join until years later but like the rest of the Western world it will be heavily reliant on European money for rebuilding. The EDA will be considered the biggest winners of the war because they didn't lose anything and gained the most. Britain will have won the war but lost the peace. -Korea will manage to take all of North Korea. After struggling for years with the rebuilding effort and educating the NorKs it will arise as an important economic power. Japan will either invade the Kuril Islands when they see the war coming to a close or demand them in a peace treaty. After the dealing with the rebuilding effort Japan will be in constant competition with Korea (who still haven't forgiven them for what happened during WW2) and as the dominant military power in the South Pacific. They will also place a lot of focus on containing Taiwanese ambition. Taiwan will take over all or nearly all Chinese islands and maybe some coastal provinces. After the war is over it will be constantly refusing to give them back to whatever legitimate Chinese government that arises from the ashes. Even when the Soviets agree to pull their troops out of China the fighting will continue for years (possibly with nukes involved) and international troops will be needed to establish some semblance of peace. Short of a miracle, China will be crippled for the coming decades as they struggle to rebuilt. Japan will be considered a winner of the war by association (all the winning was done by other powers), Korea will be considered an important winner (despite arguably not being that important in the grand scale of things). China will be considered the biggest loser of the war. -The United States will be able to defeat the Soviet invasion and liberate Mexico, finally forcing Moscow to sue for peace. After the war is over they will face continues campaigns in South America to clear it of communist dictatorships and re-establish Pro-America governments. Due to their problems with rebuilding and the losses their navy has faced it will take years to re-gain their former military might and see their status as leader of the free world be taken over by the EDA. The United States will have won the war but nor really won the peace. -As the Soviet Union faces defeat on all fronts and their leader becomes more and more deranged, some sane generals will launch a coup and start negotiating peace. Due to a combination of having lost a lot of military power and face and revolts in its remaining client states the Soviet Union will collapse in the late eighties/early nineties. A weak Russia will be gleefully exploited by the west under the justification of revenge until it eventually recovers somewhere down the line. The Soviet Union will thus have lost both the war and the peace. That is quite a prediction! I only have an outlining of an end rather than anything concrete. I should add that Poland has revolted once and been crushed hard, very hard. Kaliningrad as noted by others below it a bit of a no-no for Germany too. For anything like that to happen, territorial loses, the Soviets would have to lose and lose very hard. They do remain very strong despite losses overseas and haven't faced an internal revolt. There is plenty of domestic tension yet war against a set of foreign 'aggressors', as sold to them, does unite a population very well. Bodies coming home en masse can change things yet that does take a while. Kaliningrad has no German population left, the Soviets basically kicked everyone out and resettled. If anyone gets it after the war, its likely Poland with parts of the Oblast going to Lithuania rather than Germany ( who will have their hands full integrating West and East so not need more headaches ). Stalin's ethnic cleansing indeed. You are correct: there are no Germans there. To lose Kaliningrad, like the Baltics or any other part of what they consider their own soil, would mean the Soviet Union would have to really lose a war. A major loss like that is nowhere in sight at the minute. America is far away, so too Sweden or the western Med. Great update as usual well done. The EDA my look like they are winners in Europe if they grow a set. However I think the US will look towards the countries that stepped up to the plate on day one hour one. Thatcher may have made mistakes but she stayed more than loyal to the US. We British have long memories and remember our friends, the US helped us out twice and it is right and proper to return the favour. Thank you. As to Sweden, do you recall the speculation from the British officer DLB a few updates back? He speculated that rather than it being a case of something happening in Europe on purpose - i.e. Western Europe growing a pair or even the Soviets striking hard -, an accident when two armies are next to each other could set things off. American appreciation will be there, yes. Over time, things might change but, yes, after the war, the US will look to 'the Allies' rather than any co-belligerent for ties. Well, if we are on future prevision:
- yes, the EDA, if the Soviet not decide to add another front in the collection of war, is the biggest winner of the war due to the fact that has basically been untouched by the conflict...sorry but it's a fact and no, pointing that doesn't mean that one thinK/want the new european empire bossing around everyone, just a matter of fact pointing that in modern war the only winning move is not play; after that come just personal like and dislike and repulsion for european common organization. India is on the same situation of the European, not being directly touched (till now)
- Kaliningrad is a possibility...just because in OTL the URSS/Russia attempted to sell it back to Germany to obtain cash and can repeat the offer here, but West Germany had her problem with the integration of East Germany to accept, plus has been devoid of German national for at least 4 decades. Naturally there is the scenario that's more or less Berlin (and EDA) had no other choice to send troops there to stabilize the situation...but much depend on how and if the Soviet Union remain stable and united and how react the rest of East Europe. -Sure the USA industrial core has not been destroyed, still has been nuked, being subjected at chemical attack, great part of southwest being a warzone, Washington destroyed and Los Angeles had seen figthing and after that great civil disturbance (probably worse than the 91 riot, and just that costed 1 billion dollar in damage), plus other part of the USA has been attacked like Florida and New Orleans and in many part of the nation there are been severe riots. This all mean that while not in ruin, she has been hit severely and it will need years to rebuilt not considering that the political life of the nation will be much more complicated, finally there is the problem of the dollar, the once premiere and safest currency of the world had been severely hit and many investor will probably decide to use other currencies (and at the moment the safest are the one of the EEC/EDA) and just that will complicate the economic life and recovery of the USA. Military speaking the US Navy has been severely hit and recreate her will cost a lot (and money for sometime will be tight), the same for the rest of the armed forces so in general power projection will be diminished till full recovery
The British will be even in a worse situation (but at least has not being nuked) both financially and military...frankly while there will be resentment for the EDA nations, they will both go to Paris/Bruxelles/Bonn, whatever to ask loan and economic aid...and it's almost assured that they will receive it as see the Marshall Plan for the reason.
- South America will be problematic, on the surface the USA is still the big dog but the behaviour during and (long) before the war had not created a lot of friends and many nations can see this as an occasion to distance themselfs from the very big brother in the NOrth...and there is Mexico and Cuba. Probable something similar to Mercosur, Andean Community, Central America Union will be formed for both better common defense and properity but also to have more power to deal with the USA
- Japan has been hit severely, both directly and inderectly, as said before this has not been a very nice period for Japan due to dependence from foreign oil and food and for an economy based on export the postwar recession will be a severe hit, plus a lot of her clients had much less buying capacity of before. Kurily (and maybe Sakalin) will be recovered...even to show people that the war has been won/worthy of something. - Taiwan will be busy trying to reclaim China but on pratical effect will be limited to some province, second warlord period here we come.
Not even considering the consequences of the humanitarian and refugee crisis in Asia due to the war in Korea and China (plus Vietnam due to the goverment being effectively destroyed) and naturally the nuclear fallout. - THe URSS will have two choice, transform herselfs in a big north Korea or disbanding (the level of the violence will depend on the circumstances), in any case expect a lot of dead and conflicts all over the place; the only reason other will not intereve or invade/push too much is the big arsenal capable of destroying all life on earth that the politbureau still command.
Nothing here I disagree with entirely - yet not sure if I'll go down those routes - though Japan grabbing bits of Soviet soil would take a lot of moxie when the Soviets have used nukes and Japan fears them gravely. The USSR has yet to really lose and remains strong. And, as you say, has that nuclear arsenal. The continuedback and forth in this thread about whether the US will still be a world power misses a major point. It will remain and economic power, and by extension, a major world power simply because of it size, resources, and economic base. That said, how much of a power depends heavily on how isolationist the country becomes after the war. My guess is very and is therefore relatively less powerful. That is very true. They've been hurt but not beaten. Even a 'loss', which is something far beyond the Soviets at the moment, would have to be major to strip the US of at least its inter-hemisphere role. US victories in the Pacific are irreversible at the moment too, assuring its position there unless the Soviets could force the issue to a finish on US soil. Looking at politics going forward. US will remember its friends, enemies and with most effect, its false friends, payback is a bitch as the saying goes. So US-UK links get stronger , EU-US links weaken etc. What was NATO probably ends up as two organizations, those that heeded the call in a US led pact, those that did not, a french led pact. Same sort of thing will happen in the Pacific and Americas. Germany may have issues with its export led economy due to both the effects of integrating the East and US resentment blocking access to US tech and running a whispering campaign. Lots of below the belt stuff will go on, Soviets will not be around but Germany is a convenient lighting rod for anger ( others can pass the blame for their actions by saying they could not do anything due to Germany saying No ). The European split looks likely at the moment: things won't be forgotten as domestic politics will play a role. The West German neutrality did give others an excuse though France stepped back because the Americans told them that they were pulling their troops home. To fight then looked crazy from France's point of view especially as it was left unmolested. The little details will be forgotten by many though, on both sides, for political gain: as it always the way in these things.
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Nov 24, 2018 17:54:18 GMT
No Eastern European Bloc ore will they not be able to survive without the Moscow masters. Any Eastern Bloc Will fall apart as soon as Russia stops sending them money and enforcing its rules. With the exception of maybe East Germany none of them were any fond of Moscow and Will jump ship as soon as they get the opportunity. Especially Poland. That is very true indeed. It happened without war in the late 80s and if 'the Russians' go home, those regimes in Eastern Europe are on shaky ground indeed. Here is a thought... no matter what Mexico and China will end the war as burned out shells of their former selves. Central America a communist mess. If the Americans can turn the tide with their industrial heartland intact there will far less industrial flight. Mainly because there is no Mexico or China to ship industrial jobs to. That will go a long way to sustain economic recovery. The Rust Belt will be currently (in the story) getting a massive boost indeed. I read that the Mexico issue started in the 70s - I always thought it was in the 90s - and that is off for good; so too is China after all of those nukes and the country falling apart.
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Nov 24, 2018 17:58:06 GMT
(292)
February 1985: The Rockies, Denver and eastern Colorado
From a starting point of one, then two and ending up with four, the Soviet Air Force had sent air armies to the fight in North America. These were taken from across the western parts of the Soviet Union though with components from all over the place including units based in Eastern Europe too. Their peacetime deployment structure was changed dramatically upon arrival on the other side of the world yet also during the ongoing war. The Fourteenth & Twenty–Four Air Armies were in Texas, the Fourth Air Army was stationed across Arizona (until driven out during February) and the Twenty–Sixth Air Army was based through Colorado and New Mexico. Captured American airbases – for their air force, army, navy, marines – were made use of as well as civilian airports large and small. There was additional dispersion to some highway-strips and also improvised airstrips were created. Soviet military aircraft were designed for ‘rough field’ operations and while this didn’t mean that they could fly from just anywhere, there was the ability to make use of a lot of places that the Americans wouldn’t fly from. At the bases which they used, the Soviet air armies spent a lot of effort expanding them to suit their needs. Runways were lengthened, taxiways added and new structures erected. Defensive positions were constructed in and around them. Deception efforts were made to hide some activity while also set up dummy sites as well. Use was made of slave labour (POWs and civilians who were ‘volunteered’) to do all of this heavy work though the Soviets did bring in much equipment or used captured gear as well rather than solely rely upon unreliable hands. This was especially apparent where early on in the war, American POWs caused them a lot of trouble when put to work at sites which needed urgent expansion. Civilian construction vehicles as well as Soviet armoured engineer vehicles could do far more work than men with pickaxes and shovels; moreover, a vehicle wouldn’t try to attack its masters with the tools it had been given… or steal explosives to create a massive bomb blast.
The air armies operated on the army–division–regiment–squadron internal structure. Such a level of downwards command worked well for the Soviets. They incorporated additions of regiments flown by their allies into their divisions for ease of command. However, there were two Soviet air services who had elements sent to North America. The Soviet Air Force – the VVS – was joined by selective PVO regiments, from the Soviet Air Defence Forces, which included both interceptors and missile units too. Integration of these within the air armies didn’t happen at the PVO’s behest no matter what the VVS wanted to see there: they answered instead to the Soviet Army-led Front commands which controlled field armies and air armies. This was more than just an administrative matter. The VVS and the PVO had very different ways of doing things in the air and on the ground. There was an overlap in types of aircraft fielded though different variants were used. Inter-service rivalry was intense, enough to be a serious detriment to the war effort. The PVO really didn’t want to see its units sent overseas when their primary mission was defence of the Soviet homeland. The VVS didn’t want them in North America unless they could directly command them and integrate them as they had done with Eastern Europeans and Latin Americans. Such a split carried on though regardless. It was all about politics back home and wasn’t going to change. Meanwhile, the Soviet Air Force carried on with the war which it had to fight. The winter had seen even more extensive work down at the airbases which they operated from across occupied territory due to both the upcoming planned Spring offensive and also the reinforcements which they themselves received. The Fourteenth & Twenty–Sixth Air Armies were the main beneficiaries of that reinforcement. There had been plans to send more units that what came yet the situation in Europe halved that number. What was sent though were some particular VVS units recently either stood up as new at home or having transitioned to new aircraft / air defence missiles before they came across to North America. Many more Sukhoi-25 attack-fighters, designed for low-altitude battlefield roles, arrived and so did S-300 SAMs to counter American strike aircraft. Then there were the Sukhoi-27s. These Flankers were really needed. Concerns had been expressed back home that ‘wunderwaffe’ like these fighters weren’t ready to enter a war zone and needed more testing – the PVO had their Flankers in service before the VVS and sent some to Florida; in December, those had come off badly in clashes with American F-15s – yet these were dispatched to the war against the United States. There was a war to win and these aircraft were seen as war-winners.
Attached to the Twenty–Sixth Air Army were five aviation divisions. These were involved in three different conflicts though with overlap between each fight and the assigned air units. Denver and eastern Colorado were one fight, the second was flying from New Mexico against the Americans in the Texan High Plains and the third was in the Rocky Mountains. The 105th Mixed Aviation Division had that latter task. There were MiG-23 fighters and MiG-27 attack-fighters. Sukhoi-24 tactical bombers were flying in number and were joined by Su-25s too. Back in January, a regiment of Su-27s turned up. Much of the 105th Division was based inside the San Luis Valley within south-central Colorado. The valley was set among the mountains all around it. Two big Soviet airbases had been established inside (along with dispersed strips) with others outside away to the east outside the Rockies. The Soviet Air Force had put a lot of effort into establishing themselves here with the intention of staying. Paratroopers with the 76th Guards Airborne Division were fighting through the Rockies along with Spetsnaz some distance from the San Luis Valley so it was deemed a secure region especially since the flat terrain gave little cover for guerrillas. The airbases were defended close-in and far outside by missiles and also ground personnel on security duty. The surrounding mountains did give cover for approaching American aircraft on attack missions yet those same mountains were also full of radars and missiles too.
At the beginning of February, the 76th Guards, began falling back under higher orders. As they did so, there came the order that the 105th Division was to pull out of the San Luis Valley.
The Soviet Air Force objected strongly. Its bases at Alamosa and Monte Vista – huge expansions upon small civilian airports – were of great importance. Just outside the valley, over at La Veta on the edges of the High Plains, the new airbase there where the Flankers were flying from would be too close to the planned new frontlines to be of any viable use now. The whole 105th Division would need to relocate causing disruption to the Twenty–Sixth Air Army’s war. They demanded to know why did the 76th Guards needed to withdraw that far back. Couldn’t they hold back the Americans north of the valley and wasn’t it just a lone national guard regiment that a whole division of Soviet Airborne was facing? The orders stood though. A withdrawal orders for the paratroopers stood as the whole Soviet position in Colorado was shifting. Those airbases were to be abandoned and the infrastructure for the 105th Division needed to be removed where possible and destroyed where not. A timescale was given for this to be done. It was a timescale interrupted by uncooperative American actions.
The 116th Armored Cavalry Regiment broke through around Salida and pushed away the retreating Soviet paratroopers out of the lowland there up into the mountains above. They didn’t chase them but instead did as feared – just earlier than Soviet projections – and kept on going south. Highway-285 took the men from Idaho and Oregon into the San Luis Valley. American aircraft supported the tanks and infantry carriers as they drove through the excellent tank country which was the valley. At the spa resort of Mineral Hot Springs, there was a ‘fork’ in the road network. This was a good place to stop an attack, especially as beyond it two roads going south through the valley could be used afterwards. The bottleneck wasn’t defended though. The anti-tank unit which had meant to have been here saw its orders reversed as the 76th Guards chose not to see them lost for no good cause. The two platoons of gunners and missilemen wouldn’t have held for long and they were needed elsewhere. Such a decision doomed the 105th Division as the breathing room they were meant to have to evacuate in time didn’t come. Highway-17 was used like -285 was as an avenue of attack to charge directly at Alamosa and Monte Vista directly.
The 116th Cav’ crashed into Alamosa first, then Monte Vista next. Soviet personnel at each put up a fight. They stood no chance though. Each airbase was a hive of ongoing activity as forces pulled out from elsewhere were converging on both sites as air operations were being wound down too ahead of withdrawal. Communications with the 76th Guards headquarters were with the 105th Division but there was a delay – an accident, not something deliberate – in telling them about the American breakthrough. By the time that message was sent, battles were being fought at the airbases. The Americans on the ground and in the air did much damage and killed many enemies. There was an effort to spare some of what they found at the airbases but defending troops were everywhere. More firepower was unleashed in response to overcome this. American lives were valued more than capturing aircraft sitting on the ground.
The Americans would move on afterwards once they eliminated the last resistance at each airbase. Control over the whole valley was established when the 116th Cav’ went as far south as the Conejos area. They met resistance from the eastern flank where the Soviets blocked access to their approaches though inside the valley they were busy rounding up prisoners from occupation forces rather than any more serious fighting. In the skies above them, only after the losses of Alamosa and Monte Vista, did the 105th Division finally managed to get some significant air power to play a role. It was too late though. Those Flankers from outside the valley came over the mountains and met with both F-15s and F-16s in battle. Here they did well, holding their own in the sky. Just as the Soviet Air Force feared though their operating base was too exposed. The La Veta airbase was back from the La Veta Pass over the Rockies keeping it safe from ground attack but not from the air. The US Air Force used Leach Airport – inside the San Luis Valley and one of those dispersal sites for the 105th Division which hadn’t been fought over but abandoned successfully – to base a detachment of A-10s at. The ‘Hogs’ went over the mountains at low-level and popped up above La Veta. Their 30mm Gatling guns (with seven barrels: a fearsome weapon when used correctly) and waves of short-range rockets did terrible damage when making three attacks over four nights, each time getting past Soviet defences designed to stop them. Half a dozen of those Flankers, put inside partially finished protective shelters, were lost along with everything else done. La Veta would too have to be abandoned. What was left of the 105th Division would afterwards be broken up, attached to the other aviation divisions which were involved in the wider fight for the rest of Colorado including Denver.
***
February was when the Siege of Denver was once and for all broken open. That earlier gap in the encirclement north of the city wasn’t directly expanded upon but instead, attacks elsewhere to the south smashed apart Nicaraguan defenders. The Soviets couldn’t get to their aid in time. They ended up withdrawing their own troops first to Centennial on the edges of the city and the Castle Rock far outside. This left the Nicaraguans back closer to Denver all on their own. Instructions came for them to hold pending a return of Soviet forces. That was a lie: they were left to fight so the Soviets could establish stronger blocking positions in central Colorado. The Nicaraguans did what was demanded of them and held on until the very end. Almost two weeks of fighting took place before they were finally overcome. It was a very bloody final fight for them and saw Patriot forces – Denver militia groups – heavily-involved as the US 82nd Airborne Division left them too finish off a beaten opponent.
The siege would be declared over officially by February 11th though it was only by the 22nd that the last of the Nicaraguans around its outskirts of the city were eventually overcome. This news was spread wide and far across North America, then afterwards across the world as well.
Now the frontlines had moved southwards. The Castle Rock position blocked an American drive down the Interstate-25 corridor towards Colorado Springs. The Soviet Air Force had that area (plus further south towards Pueblo) littered with airbases for more of its air units and if lost, that would probably be worse than what occurred over in the San Luis Valley. Up at Castle Rock, the Soviet Twenty–Second Army was told to hold on. Their 66th Motorised Rifle Brigade and 120th Guards Motorised Rifle Division had taken terrible losses in the fights around Denver yet were in a position to stop the Americans with their US XI Corps from coming further south for the time being. The flanks were of concern though. The 76th Guards were over in the Rockies to the west and repositioning well though the Americans were applying a lot of pressure. To the east, over better terrain stretching southwards, that was where there was a lot of worry. More Nicaraguans who were joined with Revolutionary Mexico troops under their command holding a huge frontage. The Soviets had a brigade of their airmobile troops – men using light armoured vehicles as well as trucks – with them though the Canadians there increased in number and capability through February. Some British troops were among them too, other men who’d fought in Alaska earlier in the war and come south. Furthermore, Soviet intelligence-gathering spotted more reinforcements. Arriving in Colorado to come under the command of the Canadian I Corps was a division of the Army of the United States, one of those new-built formations raised at Fort Riley in Kansas and in its final stages of training now. What was identified as the 37th Infantry Division was going to be ready to strike soon enough. ABC forces (Americans, British and Canadians) were judged to be in the position to go through the NMS troops (Nicaraguan, Mexican and Soviet) with ease when they choose to. It looked likely they would get behind the Twenty–Second Army and cut them off by seizing Colorado Springs or Pueblo soon enough unless somehow stopped.
Permission for the withdrawals made in the Rockies and then from Denver had come from the highest levels. Moscow wasn’t in the mood to authorise retreats across occupied American soil. The propaganda value of doing so for the United States was one thing but so too was the planned upcoming major March offensives. Neither of those were benefitted by pulling back. They’d seen sense on those other withdrawals but not withdrawing all the way to Colorado Springs, maybe Pueblo, by their troops at Castle Rock. This wasn’t acceptable in Moscow’s eyes. Reinforcements were promised (from the broken up Eleventh Guards Army) but before then something was done of a strategic nature to put a stop to the flank threat.
Last-minute American intercepts of communications pointed to something about to happen in Colorado. There were worries than another gas attack, possibly even a tactical nuclear strike, was incoming. Soviet movements were alarming. Warning was sent to the highest-levels and this included the president where he went through (yet another) emergency evacuation, something he was grudgingly very used to by now. Things happened very fast though, before there could be a runaway reaction. Over Colorado, a pair of Tu-22Ms appeared. They’d flown from the occupied Dyess AFB down in Texas and each carried just the one bomb. Others of these type had been field tested by the Soviets just before Christmas down in Libya. Now they were used as part of the Soviet conventional arsenal. The Soviets were unaware of American interception of communications (which they couldn’t crack) informing their men to seek cover. There was no understanding of the risk they were running in seeing things get far out of hand. All they wanted to do was to put two extremely powerful bombs into action.
The towns of Limon and then Kit Carson were each hit by thermobaric bombs. Larger than what hit Sirte in Libya, these two bombs did as much damage as what occurred there and thoroughly destroy each target here in the United States. The equivalent of twelve tons of TNT but taking a longer-lasting and far hotter explosion than a conventional weapon was the yield of these bombs. Limon and Kit Carson were obliterated by what hit them. However, neither was knocked out for no reason. There were few American civilians at each and they weren’t a primary target either. Why these attacks came here were to destroy the Canadian military presence at Limon and the British around Kit Carson. The pair of towns were at crossroads in eastern Colorado and behind the frontlines. Here there were significant rear-area forces supporting the forward troops. Supply, communications, vehicle maintenance, medical and transportation units were concentrated. As intelligence information that the Soviets also had correctly said, the Canadian I Corps was right on the edge of a major attack. Hitting dispersed troops at the frontlines would have taken more bombs and not been as effective, the Soviets decided, but smashing apart these two support nodes would be. Covered by Flankers who had been moved to Pueblo Airport, and who engaged RAF Phantoms successfully, those bombers got in and out without taking any loses. Casualties were anticipated to be extensive among Allied troops at the targeted sites. As to the incoming major attack to cut their rear, the Soviets didn’t get hit by one afterwards. They waited on their own reinforcements and held onto what they had in Colorado, confident that eliminating the enemy military presence around Limon and Kit Carson had been enough. Time would tell on that.
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lordbyron
Warrant Officer
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Post by lordbyron on Nov 24, 2018 19:38:39 GMT
Yeah, the Rust Belt is gonna be a big winner here postwar, with no Mexico or China competing with it and companies moving jobs there (it also helps that it's untouched by the war)...
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