stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,866 
Likes: 13,252
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Post by stevep on Nov 21, 2018 21:20:51 GMT
(290)February 1985: New York Warren Christopher had been the Deputy Attorney General for the last two years during the Johnson Administration before he’d then gone back to private law when Nixon entered the White House. Following Ted Kennedy’s election, Christopher had been considered for a return to government, serving as Walter Mondale’s deputy at the State Department. That hadn’t worked out. The views of the incoming president on certain matters of world affairs had been at odds with his and Christopher remained out of government. He had become a critic of the foreign policy followed by the Kennedy Administration when it came to relations with allies and foes alike. His name was linked to many of the think-tank reports and newspaper opinion pieces which attacked the policies followed during those three and a half years. John Glenn and he had come to know each other though as vice president, a loyal one, Glenn had remained publicly distant from Christopher’s expressed views. There had been harsher critics, ones far less polite than Christopher had been, yet Kennedy had made it clear that such a man wasn’t welcome anywhere near his administration. It had been personal like that with many people and the thirty-ninth president. September 17th had come and in the resulting fallout, Glenn had reformed the US Government with much-needed replacements for the many dead. Christopher had been asked by the new president to take a non-executive role with the new administration, one working directly for Glenn. This was to head up the new Office of Intelligence and Security and this took an oversight role above the newly-created National Intelligence and Security Service. NISS had a Congressional mandate but Christopher’s office didn’t. Glenn wanted to create a Cabinet-level department for intelligence & security. This wouldn’t just be responsible for NISS though that would be the main focus. Congress was currently blocking any form of a Department for Intelligence and Security (other names such as National Security had been floated too) for various reasons. There were concerns over the powers which it would have and how those would be enforced with claims that they would violate the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. Christopher himself was called a ‘dove’: certain members of Congress wanted a ‘hawk’ and saw Glenn’s determination to put Christopher in that position as a challenge to them which they met. There were concerns now among some that the president had gone too far when NISS was created – erm… it was them really, not him – in merging so many formerly-independent agencies into one so quickly. It was to some an American KGB! Hyperbole aside, Congress had serious issues with then going further. To hand that all over to Christopher, or anyone else for that matter, in a Cabinet role was something Congress wasn’t so sure about. NISS remained in limbo with neither the president nor Congress having complete control over it. It was still a new organisation though packed with long-term veterans from the Intelligence Community. Their fiefdoms had been broken up and many, many toes stepped on. They were blamed for the surprise attack which brought about the war yet their own feelings were that Kennedy had been to blame, not them. Or, if the CIA, the DIA, the NSA and the NRO were to get any blame, then it was upon the former heads of those organisations and plenty of people who were dead after the nuclear attacks. There were seven primary components of NISS (excluding the administrative and support parts) which formed their own divisions within the super-agency. The Foreign Intelligence Division fulfilled many of the roles which the CIA once had; the Defence Intelligence Division covered DIA tasks; the Communications Division undertook NSA duties; the Reconnaissance Division replaced the NRO; the Protection Division included the Secret Service’s executive guard role; the Counter-Intelligence Division undertook many former FBI tasks acting against spies; the Domestic Security Division had the duty which no former organisation in the United States had and that was to guard against the actions of American people themselves striking at the heart of the nation. The stink kicked up by the CIA on one hand and the NSA on the other at being subsumed like they were was massive. The DIA and NRO found themselves quickly in leading roles within NISS and were generally happy. The Secret Service was a shadow of its former self and couldn’t object to what occurred. When the FBI lost its counter-intelligence duties, they had tried very hard to stop this yet hadn’t fought almost to the very end like the CIA’s remaining structure had tried to in an effort at martyrdom. The role of Domestic Security was something else entirely from all of this drama elsewhere. It was the assigned role of this part of the United States’ unified intelligence network which had upset many in Congress: if this had been peacetime and there was more of this in the public arena, the backlash would have been quite something too. Domestic Security was designed to focus upon anti-terrorism as its main undertaking. When the war started and nuclear attacks came, the country had been hit elsewhere by countless terror attacks from coast-to-coast. Plenty of those murderers were now dead, many shot ‘while resisting arrest’ too. This wasn’t going to be allowed to happen ever again. Given FBI-like powers in handling terror matters yet with stronger backing, NISS agents on Domestic Security tasks would stop any more terror attacks ever again and do so with a no-holds barred approach. Terrorism wasn’t just foreign nationals though. There was home-grown terrorism too which had already felt the long arm of NISS agents in the past few months. There had been separatists and secessionists who betrayed their country at a time like this with accusations (not all, but many, true) that they had been working with the Soviet KGB even if some of them weren’t aware of it. Congress feared that in the future, after the war, NISS would be able to step on the right to bear arms and for personal freedoms, all in the name of fighting terrorism. Some of their actions already had pressed the wrong buttons with senators and congressmen. Voices in Congress called Christopher a dove. A dove he wasn’t. He was pragmatic and thoughtful. Glenn had tasked him to oversee NISS and defeat ongoing and future threats to the nation. That he had done. If Congress was fully aware of some of the actions undertaken by NISS so far, especially since 1985 began, they’d be calling him a hawk. Their fears of Domestic Security expansion in the future by knowing some of the things done behind closed doors now would have set them right off. Conversely, the deeming of him as a dove still held water though. NISS was in DIA hands and Christopher and his semi-independent Office of Intelligence and Security had oversight but not direct control over all that NISS did. Christopher wouldn’t have agreed directly to all that was being done. This was why there needed to be proper oversight and legislation. Congress argued with the president on this matter and meanwhile NISS did what it did. High Value Prisoners (HVPs) – a recent capture of a KGB captain in the Rockies an example of them – were taken to ‘black sites’ across the nation; one was soon to be established on occupied Mexican soil over in Baja California too. Captured personnel from the KGB, the GRU and Cuban & Latin American nations were deemed as HVPs because they weren’t legitimate military POWs. The methods used to interrogate them and the conditions which they were held in didn’t meet POW standards. Their names weren’t on lists held by the Red Cross or the Soviet Interest Section that the Swiss Embassy represented to be passed on back to families abroad. Some very bad things were being done to these detainees with threats of the same made to others to get them to cooperate. Worse treatment was being given elsewhere to American captives in enemy hands, but that didn’t excuse the excesses of Aspen and elsewhere, did it? NISS was involved in many other aspects of the shadow war going on behind the frontlines. They had an ongoing espionage effort to get inside the inner workings of the governments of (Revolutionary) Mexico and Nicaragua. There had been some success with another spying effort made in El Paso with the Peace Committee which remained there and this including ‘snatching’ back several American nationals held prisoner there for KGB means. Domestic counter-intelligence efforts had taken apart several Soviet spy rings in the United States which were pre-war established but burnt by KGB overuse due to the pressure of war. Military intelligence efforts closer to the battlefields had been roughly-handed by Soviet counterefforts yet they were bringing back useful information of a strategic nature and there was an ongoing, top-secret deception programme (named Mechanic) which was believed to be soon to pay off big time. Major electronic eavesdropping operations were ongoing to do what America had always done well in conflicts and seize the mantle there to crack enemy communications and exploit them properly, not just react to what was intercepted in a hasty manner. Foreign Intelligence had seen work done abroad where former CIA operatives now working under NISS were trying to get back into the worldwide intelligence war which America’s embattled allies had been fighting without them for many months. Robert Gates had managed, despite everything including resignations & dismissals aplenty, to keep a core part of the CIA functioning. That nuclear blast above Langley when the war started, Soviet killing of CIA assets overseas and Congress trying even more than any Soviet nuclear warhead to obliterate the organisation he worked for hadn’t completely destroyed it. Glenn had been talked around by a few senators – survivors of the nuclear strike on Washington and new ones alike; those who had many years of public office dealing with the CIA too – into intervening through Christopher to keeping Gates there and the CIA active. It had a new name, answered to NISS and lost some responsibilities, but it was still there. The now Foreign Intelligence Division of NISS was the CIA in new clothes. Back on their feet, they had been busy. Firstly, they had conducted those valuable overseas intelligence-gathering operations as well as working with allies (the wartime Allies but also traditional partners like the Israelis and even the French) to push back against the Soviets where possible. Israel still maintained total control over the flow of information from their man at the Lubyanka in Moscow who worked in the top-tier of the KGB – the man who sent that very late, and too late, warning of war – yet Gates’ people had access to what he said once Mossad passed that on. Gates wanted to have his people have more of a role there but Israeli said no. At this time that couldn’t be forced yet the future was the future. The number-three man at the KGB gave them details of a Secret Service man who had provided exact location details on Kennedy before the deceased president, but also the KGB’s spy too, ended up on the wrong end of several nuclear blasts. This was confirmed and opened up other matters which Foreign Intelligence shared with Counter-Intelligence (their old FBI contacts and they had a long-standing relationship even if it was tempestuous one) in rolling up what was to be called the Walker Spy Ring. This was a Soviet espionage effort which it turned out had done some real damage to the US Navy throughout the war. It was all about communications, not where ships were, but tracking intercepted signals and understanding how they were encoded, and had done the Soviets very well as they were able to deliver real-time information. Tens of thousands of American sailors had died not because the Soviet Navy could crack US Navy codes but understand how they worked and forgo the complication of decryption for immediate results. That was put to an end. Funnelling false information down the line would be done by NISS though, the US Navy changed everything to do with their communications and that was more important for them as it was their ships being lost and sailors killed. Then there was Peppermint and Workman, the two defectors that the DIA and CIA respectively had received. Both Soviets in American custody claimed the other was a liar while the respective organisations which had taken them in fought the other over the legitimacy of theirs. NISS’s director had favoured Peppermint; Gates had got Christopher’s ear with what Workman had to say. That second defector, the one which Gates’ people had, had been able to aid with the taking apart of the Walker Spy Ring by giving information on one of the people on the fringes of that conspiracy which helped shore the whole investigation up. Peppermint, that supposed goldmine of information, had nothing: he’d never heard of this massive intelligence-gathering effort. He should have. He was supposed to be that high-up in the GRU and the whole thing, where the work of spies was made available to the military for real-time applications, should have involved him before he defected. When the US Navy made dramatic changes in fleet communications, there was a near instant effect that they reported back when it came to the Soviet Navy suddenly having a lot of failure in tracking to attack its vessels. From them, they let both Christopher and the Director of NISS know the value of intelligence gained… Gates made sure everyone understood that Workman had delivered while Peppermint was still talking of geo-political events and ‘what they all mean behind the scenes’. Workman had delivered and Peppermint was either the false defector that the CIA had said he was or a charlatan of the first order if one wanted to be charitable. The defenders of Peppermint had their ranks thinned by those walking back of what they had previously said about how wonderful he was. One of senior DIA people who’d beforehand soaked up all the praise which had come from the defection of Peppermint and who now retracted his support – he said with a straight face that he’d always had his doubts – was in-the-know when it came to that ongoing Mechanic military deception operation. This general, a self-serving and generally quite obnoxious fellow, did his country a great service without realising it by not discussing anything about Mechanic with Peppermint. If he had, events in the coming months would have turned out very differently.
Well it sounds like the US is finally getting on top of the intelligence war with the Soviets. A couple of points?
a) Someone's being delusional if they really think it will never happen again.
b) That seem to suggest that not only is Peppermint a fake working for the Soviets but that he still has ways of contacting Moscow?? It also strongly hints that the Soviets are going to have a nasty surprise. 
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
Posts: 7,608
Likes: 8,833
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Post by James G on Nov 22, 2018 20:48:30 GMT
(290)February 1985: New York Warren Christopher had been the Deputy Attorney General for the last two years during the Johnson Administration before he’d then gone back to private law when Nixon entered the White House. Following Ted Kennedy’s election, Christopher had been considered for a return to government, serving as Walter Mondale’s deputy at the State Department. That hadn’t worked out. The views of the incoming president on certain matters of world affairs had been at odds with his and Christopher remained out of government. He had become a critic of the foreign policy followed by the Kennedy Administration when it came to relations with allies and foes alike. His name was linked to many of the think-tank reports and newspaper opinion pieces which attacked the policies followed during those three and a half years. John Glenn and he had come to know each other though as vice president, a loyal one, Glenn had remained publicly distant from Christopher’s expressed views. There had been harsher critics, ones far less polite than Christopher had been, yet Kennedy had made it clear that such a man wasn’t welcome anywhere near his administration. It had been personal like that with many people and the thirty-ninth president. September 17th had come and in the resulting fallout, Glenn had reformed the US Government with much-needed replacements for the many dead. Christopher had been asked by the new president to take a non-executive role with the new administration, one working directly for Glenn. This was to head up the new Office of Intelligence and Security and this took an oversight role above the newly-created National Intelligence and Security Service. NISS had a Congressional mandate but Christopher’s office didn’t. Glenn wanted to create a Cabinet-level department for intelligence & security. This wouldn’t just be responsible for NISS though that would be the main focus. Congress was currently blocking any form of a Department for Intelligence and Security (other names such as National Security had been floated too) for various reasons. There were concerns over the powers which it would have and how those would be enforced with claims that they would violate the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. Christopher himself was called a ‘dove’: certain members of Congress wanted a ‘hawk’ and saw Glenn’s determination to put Christopher in that position as a challenge to them which they met. There were concerns now among some that the president had gone too far when NISS was created – erm… it was them really, not him – in merging so many formerly-independent agencies into one so quickly. It was to some an American KGB! Hyperbole aside, Congress had serious issues with then going further. To hand that all over to Christopher, or anyone else for that matter, in a Cabinet role was something Congress wasn’t so sure about. NISS remained in limbo with neither the president nor Congress having complete control over it. It was still a new organisation though packed with long-term veterans from the Intelligence Community. Their fiefdoms had been broken up and many, many toes stepped on. They were blamed for the surprise attack which brought about the war yet their own feelings were that Kennedy had been to blame, not them. Or, if the CIA, the DIA, the NSA and the NRO were to get any blame, then it was upon the former heads of those organisations and plenty of people who were dead after the nuclear attacks. There were seven primary components of NISS (excluding the administrative and support parts) which formed their own divisions within the super-agency. The Foreign Intelligence Division fulfilled many of the roles which the CIA once had; the Defence Intelligence Division covered DIA tasks; the Communications Division undertook NSA duties; the Reconnaissance Division replaced the NRO; the Protection Division included the Secret Service’s executive guard role; the Counter-Intelligence Division undertook many former FBI tasks acting against spies; the Domestic Security Division had the duty which no former organisation in the United States had and that was to guard against the actions of American people themselves striking at the heart of the nation. The stink kicked up by the CIA on one hand and the NSA on the other at being subsumed like they were was massive. The DIA and NRO found themselves quickly in leading roles within NISS and were generally happy. The Secret Service was a shadow of its former self and couldn’t object to what occurred. When the FBI lost its counter-intelligence duties, they had tried very hard to stop this yet hadn’t fought almost to the very end like the CIA’s remaining structure had tried to in an effort at martyrdom. The role of Domestic Security was something else entirely from all of this drama elsewhere. It was the assigned role of this part of the United States’ unified intelligence network which had upset many in Congress: if this had been peacetime and there was more of this in the public arena, the backlash would have been quite something too. Domestic Security was designed to focus upon anti-terrorism as its main undertaking. When the war started and nuclear attacks came, the country had been hit elsewhere by countless terror attacks from coast-to-coast. Plenty of those murderers were now dead, many shot ‘while resisting arrest’ too. This wasn’t going to be allowed to happen ever again. Given FBI-like powers in handling terror matters yet with stronger backing, NISS agents on Domestic Security tasks would stop any more terror attacks ever again and do so with a no-holds barred approach. Terrorism wasn’t just foreign nationals though. There was home-grown terrorism too which had already felt the long arm of NISS agents in the past few months. There had been separatists and secessionists who betrayed their country at a time like this with accusations (not all, but many, true) that they had been working with the Soviet KGB even if some of them weren’t aware of it. Congress feared that in the future, after the war, NISS would be able to step on the right to bear arms and for personal freedoms, all in the name of fighting terrorism. Some of their actions already had pressed the wrong buttons with senators and congressmen. Voices in Congress called Christopher a dove. A dove he wasn’t. He was pragmatic and thoughtful. Glenn had tasked him to oversee NISS and defeat ongoing and future threats to the nation. That he had done. If Congress was fully aware of some of the actions undertaken by NISS so far, especially since 1985 began, they’d be calling him a hawk. Their fears of Domestic Security expansion in the future by knowing some of the things done behind closed doors now would have set them right off. Conversely, the deeming of him as a dove still held water though. NISS was in DIA hands and Christopher and his semi-independent Office of Intelligence and Security had oversight but not direct control over all that NISS did. Christopher wouldn’t have agreed directly to all that was being done. This was why there needed to be proper oversight and legislation. Congress argued with the president on this matter and meanwhile NISS did what it did. High Value Prisoners (HVPs) – a recent capture of a KGB captain in the Rockies an example of them – were taken to ‘black sites’ across the nation; one was soon to be established on occupied Mexican soil over in Baja California too. Captured personnel from the KGB, the GRU and Cuban & Latin American nations were deemed as HVPs because they weren’t legitimate military POWs. The methods used to interrogate them and the conditions which they were held in didn’t meet POW standards. Their names weren’t on lists held by the Red Cross or the Soviet Interest Section that the Swiss Embassy represented to be passed on back to families abroad. Some very bad things were being done to these detainees with threats of the same made to others to get them to cooperate. Worse treatment was being given elsewhere to American captives in enemy hands, but that didn’t excuse the excesses of Aspen and elsewhere, did it? NISS was involved in many other aspects of the shadow war going on behind the frontlines. They had an ongoing espionage effort to get inside the inner workings of the governments of (Revolutionary) Mexico and Nicaragua. There had been some success with another spying effort made in El Paso with the Peace Committee which remained there and this including ‘snatching’ back several American nationals held prisoner there for KGB means. Domestic counter-intelligence efforts had taken apart several Soviet spy rings in the United States which were pre-war established but burnt by KGB overuse due to the pressure of war. Military intelligence efforts closer to the battlefields had been roughly-handed by Soviet counterefforts yet they were bringing back useful information of a strategic nature and there was an ongoing, top-secret deception programme (named Mechanic) which was believed to be soon to pay off big time. Major electronic eavesdropping operations were ongoing to do what America had always done well in conflicts and seize the mantle there to crack enemy communications and exploit them properly, not just react to what was intercepted in a hasty manner. Foreign Intelligence had seen work done abroad where former CIA operatives now working under NISS were trying to get back into the worldwide intelligence war which America’s embattled allies had been fighting without them for many months. Robert Gates had managed, despite everything including resignations & dismissals aplenty, to keep a core part of the CIA functioning. That nuclear blast above Langley when the war started, Soviet killing of CIA assets overseas and Congress trying even more than any Soviet nuclear warhead to obliterate the organisation he worked for hadn’t completely destroyed it. Glenn had been talked around by a few senators – survivors of the nuclear strike on Washington and new ones alike; those who had many years of public office dealing with the CIA too – into intervening through Christopher to keeping Gates there and the CIA active. It had a new name, answered to NISS and lost some responsibilities, but it was still there. The now Foreign Intelligence Division of NISS was the CIA in new clothes. Back on their feet, they had been busy. Firstly, they had conducted those valuable overseas intelligence-gathering operations as well as working with allies (the wartime Allies but also traditional partners like the Israelis and even the French) to push back against the Soviets where possible. Israel still maintained total control over the flow of information from their man at the Lubyanka in Moscow who worked in the top-tier of the KGB – the man who sent that very late, and too late, warning of war – yet Gates’ people had access to what he said once Mossad passed that on. Gates wanted to have his people have more of a role there but Israeli said no. At this time that couldn’t be forced yet the future was the future. The number-three man at the KGB gave them details of a Secret Service man who had provided exact location details on Kennedy before the deceased president, but also the KGB’s spy too, ended up on the wrong end of several nuclear blasts. This was confirmed and opened up other matters which Foreign Intelligence shared with Counter-Intelligence (their old FBI contacts and they had a long-standing relationship even if it was tempestuous one) in rolling up what was to be called the Walker Spy Ring. This was a Soviet espionage effort which it turned out had done some real damage to the US Navy throughout the war. It was all about communications, not where ships were, but tracking intercepted signals and understanding how they were encoded, and had done the Soviets very well as they were able to deliver real-time information. Tens of thousands of American sailors had died not because the Soviet Navy could crack US Navy codes but understand how they worked and forgo the complication of decryption for immediate results. That was put to an end. Funnelling false information down the line would be done by NISS though, the US Navy changed everything to do with their communications and that was more important for them as it was their ships being lost and sailors killed. Then there was Peppermint and Workman, the two defectors that the DIA and CIA respectively had received. Both Soviets in American custody claimed the other was a liar while the respective organisations which had taken them in fought the other over the legitimacy of theirs. NISS’s director had favoured Peppermint; Gates had got Christopher’s ear with what Workman had to say. That second defector, the one which Gates’ people had, had been able to aid with the taking apart of the Walker Spy Ring by giving information on one of the people on the fringes of that conspiracy which helped shore the whole investigation up. Peppermint, that supposed goldmine of information, had nothing: he’d never heard of this massive intelligence-gathering effort. He should have. He was supposed to be that high-up in the GRU and the whole thing, where the work of spies was made available to the military for real-time applications, should have involved him before he defected. When the US Navy made dramatic changes in fleet communications, there was a near instant effect that they reported back when it came to the Soviet Navy suddenly having a lot of failure in tracking to attack its vessels. From them, they let both Christopher and the Director of NISS know the value of intelligence gained… Gates made sure everyone understood that Workman had delivered while Peppermint was still talking of geo-political events and ‘what they all mean behind the scenes’. Workman had delivered and Peppermint was either the false defector that the CIA had said he was or a charlatan of the first order if one wanted to be charitable. The defenders of Peppermint had their ranks thinned by those walking back of what they had previously said about how wonderful he was. One of senior DIA people who’d beforehand soaked up all the praise which had come from the defection of Peppermint and who now retracted his support – he said with a straight face that he’d always had his doubts – was in-the-know when it came to that ongoing Mechanic military deception operation. This general, a self-serving and generally quite obnoxious fellow, did his country a great service without realising it by not discussing anything about Mechanic with Peppermint. If he had, events in the coming months would have turned out very differently.
Well it sounds like the US is finally getting on top of the intelligence war with the Soviets. A couple of points?
a) Someone's being delusional if they really think it will never happen again.
b) That seem to suggest that not only is Peppermint a fake working for the Soviets but that he still has ways of contacting Moscow?? It also strongly hints that the Soviets are going to have a nasty surprise.
Yep, you're right. All the security in the world still has unforeseen holes for the careful but also the lucky to get through. Many hints, yes. Nothing concrete because I am not sure if I will go down that route. But there is a very strong chance story-wise that this is the case. |
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
Posts: 7,608
Likes: 8,833
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Post by James G on Nov 22, 2018 20:49:49 GMT
(291)
February 1985: The American West
Mexicans remained fighting Mexicans throughout Baja California. The second stage of the Mexican Civil War was in full swing as the engagements between Democratic Mexico and Revolutionary Mexico continued. This fight was also joined by outsiders too with Guatemalans fighting alongside the army of Tirado López while the Tijuana Government was aided by Americans & Chileans. The Battle of Mexicali was a Mexican-only affair though. Possession of the ruin of that once bustling small city was won by Democratic Mexico. They rooted-out the last of the enemy – traitors to Mexico to a man it was declared and to be treated as such – and seized control of Mexicali. There wasn’t much left to have control of though. It really was a ruin, and there were dangerous chemical remnants along with many dead bodies inside. Almost every building inside had taken war damage with the majority of them either down or ready to collapse. The aerial bombing and shelling, then being fought over, had seen Mexicali targeted by an extraordinary number of weapons including chemical munitions. In the final stages of the fight, buildings were brought down upon defenders leading to much choking dust in the air from this. The bodies came from months of war which Mexicali had seen: they consisted of soldiers and civilians. Tijuana sent instructions to pull most of their troops out afterwards, leaving a token force there, because they feared for the health of their remaining soldiers. On the very northern edge of the town, the US-Mexico ran. US national guardsmen shot at some and detained other Mexicans who crossed over during that final battle and it was discovered afterwards that among the dead were soldiers serving Democratic Mexico too. It was one hell of a fight and desertions ran high as those pushed into it didn’t want to stay if they could find a way out no matter which government they served. The Americans sent an official expression of regret for the deaths of Tijuana’s men though didn’t acknowledge any blame. Despite the terseness of that message, it was a sign of relations far improved than how they had been months before: New York and Tijuana were at least talking now.
On-the-ground relations between the troops of Democratic Mexico and those of the United States and Chile down in the Baja California peninsula itself were far better than where they were at the top next to the border. Tijuana had its men fighting alongside those from overseas who engaged both Revolutionary Mexico and Guatemalans spread across the peninsula. Complicated command arrangements saw the Mexicans pointed at where to go by the Americans and then left to get on with it yet given heavy fire support which was tied-in. It was their territory after all which was being fought over and they were sent into the hard fights. Tijuana’s troops were taking too long though. The US Marines intervened in several fights themselves, distracting them from their own missions, to push back enemy resistance. Chilean troops were pushing down the eastern side of the peninsula – beside the Gulf of California – and were making good progress though through the central mountain spine and along tougher bits of the western coast, the Americans were slowed down. They wanted to get on with this and fully overrun Baja California. The whole peninsula would then be used as a base of operations against the Mexican mainland. From Western Command, new orders came down to the 1st Marine Division (through the two intervening mid-level headquarters) to tackle the task of taking the whole peninsula. By the end of February, this was achieved as Baja California fell into American hands. Democratic Mexico troops remained fighting at the frontlines as they kept on moving south yet the US Marines leapfrogged ahead. Amphibious and airmobile operations secured control of La Paz, Cabo and San Lucas. There had been an earlier reluctance to do this, to strike out so far ahead, but with enemy troops all at the front and the rear areas near devoid of them, they way ahead was open. Soviet naval forces off the coast were non-existent and the air threat was judged to be ‘minimal’. US Air Force units supporting both the US Marines and the Mexicans aided in covering the assaults launched by the 1st Marines which the Chileans joined in too with during the latter stages. They had more men recently arriving for the fight and rather sending them to San Diego then overland southwards, they arrived directly by ship into La Paz. Chilean and US Navy ships pushed in force into the Gulf of California from the bottom and shut off access to it. All up the stretch of waterway there were all those Mexican ports which had assisted last year with the invasion going into the United States. Wartime bombing had limited their usefulness, but now that the Americans had control over Baja California – there was fighting still inland through the middle ongoing – those ports were now out of commission for any Soviet, Cuban or Nicaraguan ship. The US Navy shut of access and that was backed up by land-based air support. Fighting inland along the peninsula for Tijuana’s troops to take Rosarito and other big towns would tie them up for a while but the Americans were behind the army of their opponents and had now thoroughly cut them off. Baja California should within a few weeks, by the end of March for certain, be fully cleared of the enemy.
While American troops were fighting to liberate parts of Mexico for Tijuana, there remained all of that American soil under occupation. This had become a political issue with Congress and was a cause of much anger. There was a strategic implication to gobbling up parts of the Pacific coastline of Mexico, to outflank enemy forces inland and better defeat them when the time came, yet understanding that was one thing while seeing foreign troops in your own soil doing all they were was another. Arizona’s representatives in Congress had been especially vocal on this matter. That had paid off. Those politicians got what they wanted and February saw the Sixth US Army and Ninth US Air Force launch an offensive in Arizona.
Operation Fire Lance was a limited affair when it came to far bigger things being planned elsewhere for March with other forces, though for Western Command it was their biggest operation to date. The trickle of supplies coming to the American West had been carefully marshalled and there were free-up forces from previous victories. That aside, there were never going to be enough men nor munitions & fuel to do all that was desired and scour the whole of Arizona for every single occupying soldier. Fire Lance would bring mixed results by the time it was over. A victory was won yet the results of that were uncomfortable for many.
To liberate Tucson, the 32nd Infantry Division went the long way around. They had previously been halted outside the city to the northwest, where the highway connecting Tucson to Phoenix ran. Guatemalan defenders were dug-in well covering that approach and barring further western access too. To the north there were mountains and the wilderness. The national guardsmen went around the latter, moving through no-man’s land and cross-country. They travelled light and fast, looping clockwise to get behind Tucson and then reaching its southwestern edges. That gave them access to both the international airport and Davis-Monthan AFB, each of those much used by the Soviet Air Force and joined too by East German air units. It was an East German aircraft on a reconnaissance patrol which spotted the mass of incoming M-60 tanks and M-113 armoured personnel carriers but the pilot report wasn’t believed. It had to be checked out. Command failures saw the ignoring of silence from Guatemalan outposts too with the belief that sudden & coordinated guerrilla captivity had pulled off the impossible and silenced all of them at once. It was US Army Rangers not guerrillas which hit those. As to the pilot report, Soviet aircraft went out themselves and faced strong US Air Force activity. Finally, one Su-17M3R pilot did get an accurate look at what was coming and confirmed the incoming storm of American armour about to hit Tucson from behind. It was too late to react. Within hours, the 32nd Infantry began reaching its objectives. They retook each of those important air sites – the airport was easier to take than the airbase – and also cut Interstate-10 running east and Interstate-19 running south. It was brilliant, it was just what was planned. What wasn’t foreseen was the Guatemalan immediate reaction. They fell back into Tucson instead of trying to fight their way out of the trap they were forced into. Tucson remained full of American civilians who’d been trapped there since the war’s early days and suffered under an occupation which was now only going to continue. Western Command had put into the Fire Lance orders for the 32nd Infantry’s attack to give the Guatemalans a way out, somewhere that they thought they could escape from and be destroyed while doing so, but things moved very fast on the ground in the heat of battle and that never happened. The Guatemalans weren’t in the mood to cooperate with American plans either. They fled into their secure, smaller defensive position: that being Tucson itself. The Soviets got most of their aircraft out – flying them to Mexico with haste and blowing up those which they couldn’t – though left behind many ground personnel who fought as infantry. The national guardsmen took them apart and only wished that the Guatemalans had stood their ground like that or tried to run south rather than retreating like they did. If the Americans wanted Tucson back, they’d either have to somehow get the tens of thousands of Guatemalans inside to surrender or take the city in a set-piece assault. The latter would run the risk of seeing another Mexicali.
Fire Lance had a second part to it. The Sixth Army kept its US IV Corps with more national guardsmen in the Altar Desert (on Mexican soil) yet moved the rest of the I Corps – which the 32nd Infantry belonged to as well – through the southern reaches of Arizona just north of the border. Both the 9th Infantry Division and the 5th Armored Brigade crossed the Tohono O’odham Indian Reservation. This generally-empty area of ground was part of the Sonoran Desert and more no-man’s land apart from a few Guatemalan and Mexican outposts. Cobra helicopter gunships shot those up ahead of the onrush of American troops who advanced east. They were heading in the direction of Tucson at first glance though that city wasn’t their aim. Fire Lance called for the I Corps’ regular units to support the national guardsmen coming from the east in attacking the Guatemalans when they were supposed to retreat from Tucson and head south down I-19 back towards Mexico. The Guatemalans didn’t do that but the I Corps still moved to the other side of that reservation and the highway which ran lateral ahead of them. They still had the fuel and especially the ammunition for a fight. Going into Tucson couldn’t be done so they moved southwards. I-19 was followed as enemy convoys on that highway and military outposts down it all taken apart in one-sided fights. The skies were initially free of enemy aircraft after all of the disruption around Tucson but the Soviet Fourth Air Army had other bases and more aircraft. They soon sent many aircraft (MiG-21s, -23s and -27s) on attack and fighter missions which the Ninth Air Force countered with F-4s and F-16s. The air engagements were aplenty and there was little real interference to the operations of the I Corps as they then went after more of the Fourth Air Army’s bases. Nogales Airport was reached, home to that regiment of MiG-27s. When that was taken by the 9th Infantry, they also moved against the two Nogales’: the American town north of the border and the Mexican town south of that which shared the same name. The US Nogales fell but the Mexican Nogales – back from the border set among difficult terrain – was well-defended by many Revolutionary Mexicans who were dug-in and supported by heavy guns. The Americans couldn’t take it without getting into a bigger fight than they had come for. Their mission was to liberate Arizona too, not more bits of Mexico. The 5th Brigade was released to go further west while the 9th Infantry secured the border yet did take ground either side of the line. By the end of the month, still under good air cover, the Americans overran two more Soviet airbases on American soil when they smashed into first Libby Army Airfield (aka Sierra Vista Airport, which was next to Fort Huachuca) and then Bisbee Airport as well.
The Soviets had flight operations at Douglas Airport, even further ahead, which they too evacuated like they did before Libby and Bisbee were occupied but the 5th Brigade didn’t go that far. They stayed in the Sierra Vista area with forward positions as far west as Bisbee for the time being. This was done because they’d gone so far in a short amount of time and outrun their supply lines. Both flanks were long and exposed, especially the southern one facing Mexico. The I Corps was ordered to consolidate what it had and wait for more supplies to come forward. While they did so, the Soviet struck at Bisbee. This time it wasn’t aircraft but a regiment of tanks supported by low-flying Mil-24 helicopters. Those Hinds were on anti-tank missions and beneath American radar cover; a few missilemen with SAMs acting against them claimed kills but more evaded an incomplete air defence network. The 5th Brigade was caught unawares and only had one mixed battalion of infantry & tanks forward. The Americans were outnumbered three-to-one and not in position to defend what they had. Bisbee was evacuated from – the captured airport / airbase seeing hasty demolitions – and the Americans regrouped in number in the mountains between there and Sierra Vista. They still held a large amount of liberated territory and much of it was good defensive ground yet Bisbee had been too far out ahead. Concern was raised afterwards that there had been too much overconfidence when it came to how far they had gone. Intelligence summaries on the enemy had been weak and reconnaissance limited after victory had been ‘secured’. Guatemalan and Mexican troops had been overcome with ease and Soviet Air Force ground personnel had posed no challenge. Their tanks though, when the Soviets moved large numbers of them forward with speed, remained a very different opponent. The Americans who got out of Bisbee in time were lucky to have done so and withdrew with their tail between their legs.
The fight for Arizona wasn’t over. Fire Lance came to an end with successes made. Nonetheless, those remaining issues of the enemy holding American soil and not beaten – Tucson foremost among them but that smaller Soviet presence as well – remained to be solved.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 22, 2018 22:13:20 GMT
James Overall a good set of attacks. Tucson is going to be a problem, both politically and militarily and they did slightly overstretch themselves but their done a fair bit of damage, especially to Soviet air power as even if most of the a/c might have got away a lot of the supplies, spares and most of all the important support staff didn't so if nothing else its likely to suffer much more attrition than before. Also it hopefully will have drawn off some of the Soviet forces so their forthcoming offensive will be a bit weaker.
Steve
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Post by eurowatch on Nov 23, 2018 0:43:39 GMT
Since the war is now coming to an end, I will make my guess on how it will go:
-The EDA is going to launch a pre-emptive attack on the Soviet Union and break through their lines into East Germany. With their best troops elsewhere and little reserves to speak of the EDA is able to liberate all of East Germany. After seeing European successes right across the border Poland starts revolting and the EDA agrees to continue pushing further, eventually stopping and setting up a defence line along the Vistula river to not piss the Soviet Union of to much.
In Sweden a combined Swedish-EDA attack breaks the Soviet lines and forces them to retreat or be encircled. Despite many “stand and fight” orders, the Baltic squadron begins evacuating troops as long as it can. With many troops freed up, Swedish, British and EDA forces can begin attacking the flanks and rear of the Soviet forces in Norway, eventually defeating them as well.
Smaller attacks are launched to destroy the Soviet fleet in the Med, liberate the Azores and Iceland and possible Czechoslovakia, Romania and Hungary (depending on if they get victory disease or want to seriously weaken Soviet influence in Europe.
With their invasion of the US collapsing and the China quagmire continuing on Moscow will agree for a cease-fire and later a peace treaty that will see them retreat from Finland, give the EDA control of all the countries it has liberated, hand Kaliningrad (now renamed back to Koningsberg) over to Germany and establish Poland as a neutral buffer state. After the war is over, Norway, Spain, Portugal and Finland will join the EDA. Tough a combination of French snootyness and Thatcher's stubbornes, Britain will not be allowed to join until years later but like the rest of the Western world it will be heavily reliant on European money for rebuilding.
The EDA will be considered the biggest winners of the war because they didn't lose anything and gained the most. Britain will have won the war but lost the peace.
-Korea will manage to take all of North Korea. After struggling for years with the rebuilding effort and educating the NorKs it will arise as an important economic power.
Japan will either invade the Kuril Islands when they see the war coming to a close or demand them in a peace treaty. After the dealing with the rebuilding effort Japan will be in constant competition with Korea (who still haven't forgiven them for what happened during WW2) and as the dominant military power in the South Pacific. They will also place a lot of focus on containing Taiwanese ambition.
Taiwan will take over all or nearly all Chinese islands and maybe some coastal provinces. After the war is over it will be constantly refusing to give them back to whatever legitimate Chinese government that arises from the ashes.
Even when the Soviets agree to pull their troops out of China the fighting will continue for years (possibly with nukes involved) and international troops will be needed to establish some semblance of peace. Short of a miracle, China will be crippled for the coming decades as they struggle to rebuilt.
Japan will be considered a winner of the war by association (all the winning was done by other powers), Korea will be considered an important winner (despite arguably not being that important in the grand scale of things). China will be considered the biggest loser of the war.
-The United States will be able to defeat the Soviet invasion and liberate Mexico, finally forcing Moscow to sue for peace. After the war is over they will face continues campaigns in South America to clear it of communist dictatorships and re-establish Pro-America governments. Due to their problems with rebuilding and the losses their navy has faced it will take years to re-gain their former military might and see their status as leader of the free world be taken over by the EDA.
The United States will have won the war but nor really won the peace.
-As the Soviet Union faces defeat on all fronts and their leader becomes more and more deranged, some sane generals will launch a coup and start negotiating peace.
Due to a combination of having lost a lot of military power and face and revolts in its remaining client states the Soviet Union will collapse in the late eighties/early nineties.
A weak Russia will be gleefully exploited by the west under the justification of revenge until it eventually recovers somewhere down the line.
The Soviet Union will thus have lost both the war and the peace.
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pjmidd
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Post by pjmidd on Nov 23, 2018 9:57:56 GMT
Kaliningrad has no German population left, the Soviets basically kicked everyone out and resettled. If anyone gets it after the war, its likely Poland with parts of the Oblast going to Lithuania rather than Germany ( who will have their hands full integrating West and East so not need more headaches ).
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 23, 2018 10:37:03 GMT
Kaliningrad has no German population left, the Soviets basically kicked everyone out and resettled. If anyone gets it after the war, its likely Poland with parts of the Oblast going to Lithuania rather than Germany ( who will have their hands full integrating West and East so not need more headaches ).
Agreed as there's no population base for a returning it to Germany. Far more likely to be split between the neighbours if it doesn't stay a Russian enclave.
Eurowatch is hopeful that the European Empire [which is what he seems to think of it as] will end up top dog and boss everybody else about but I'm still very doubtful about that. Both because the Soviets might attack 1st in which case while the EDA might well end up winning that would dent them a lot, especially since they would be fighting without substantial allied help, even if London was rash enough to send its last reserve forces and because resentment at such an attitude by the EDA and its behaviour during the war is likely to make the allies stick together. Hopefully for Britain Thatcher might be gone in a year or two and with the oil fields restored and a lot of her OTL damage not done a coalition government can get down to some real reconstruction.
There is the danger that the US will get bogged down in a quagmire in central America, since their influence in S America is largely unaffected, but they need not be that stupid and could possibly accept low level problems for a much smaller commitment. Cuba will definitely get smashed, unless a coup in Moscow occurs very quickly and I doubt if it will, but Mexico is going to be a running sore. However elsewhere most people are going to be glad to escape communist rule, especially after the extracts made on them during the war. I wonder if Glenn might consider here allowing Columbia to regain Panama in return for it accepting the US Canal Zone to help with one problem?
My gut feeling is that the USSR isn't going to survive this conflict but is going to implode dramatically, preferably with minimal use of nukes. China is going to be a very bad mess and I suspect internal conflicts and Taiwanese interventions are likely to make it worse. Japan and Korea, which is likely to include the north will recover from their substantial war effort, although it will be much slower for Korea because their been invaded and if they get it have to repair and upgrade the north, as well as probably watch their northern border against the chaos in China and whatever's happening in Russia.
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sandyman
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Post by sandyman on Nov 23, 2018 11:55:45 GMT
Great update as usual well done.
The EDA my look like they are winners in Europe if they grow a set.
However I think the US will look towards the countries that stepped up to the plate on day one hour one.
Thatcher may have made mistakes but she stayed more than loyal to the US. We British have long memories and remember our friends, the US helped us out twice and it is right and proper to return the favour.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 23, 2018 12:32:10 GMT
Great update as usual well done. The EDA my look like they are winners in Europe if they grow a set. However I think the US will look towards the countries that stepped up to the plate on day one hour one. Thatcher may have made mistakes but she stayed more than loyal to the US. We British have long memories and remember our friends, the US helped us out twice and it is right and proper to return the favour.
Britain definitely would have supported the US even if it wasn't also attacked itself. However I think Thatcher might fall earlier on internal questions and the management of the home front. There's been a national government which would have set a precedent for the immediate post war reconstruction, especially in terms of an alliance-Labour coalition if she's still trying to go it alone. Also either she's rolled back on her policies of favouring big business or she not and in the latter case it would have caused even more suffering than OTL so I can see her deposed at the next election. That would give more of a chance of rebuilding Britain's technological and social base.
As I've said before the US has had a nasty shock and Japan has sustained some damage but even in the US the core of its industrial base is largely unaffected and reconstruction could be completed fairly quickly and might even prompt renewal of the older industries. Japan is going to be world No. 2 and the impact of the war in shaking things up could well mean it avoids the fiscal disaster that crippled its growth from ~1990 onwards while there definitely won't be any emerging China dragon for at least a couple of decades. As such if the EDA/EEC tries getting too arrogant its likely to tie the allies together.
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Post by eurowatch on Nov 23, 2018 14:49:33 GMT
Kaliningrad has no German population left, the Soviets basically kicked everyone out and resettled. If anyone gets it after the war, its likely Poland with parts of the Oblast going to Lithuania rather than Germany ( who will have their hands full integrating West and East so not need more headaches ). Most likely, either that or it is forced become an independent state when the SU collapses. I am however pretty certain that Russia won't be allowed to keep it, even if Brussel Will be doing it more as an "up Yours" than due to security concerns or correcting perchieved historic wrongs. |
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Post by lukedalton on Nov 23, 2018 17:35:14 GMT
Well, if we are on future prevision:
- yes, the EDA, if the Soviet not decide to add another front in the collection of war, is the biggest winner of the war due to the fact that has basically been untouched by the conflict...sorry but it's a fact and no, pointing that doesn't mean that one thinK/want the new european empire bossing around everyone, just a matter of fact pointing that in modern war the only winning move is not play; after that come just personal like and dislike and repulsion for european common organization. India is on the same situation of the European, not being directly touched (till now)
- Kaliningrad is a possibility...just because in OTL the URSS/Russia attempted to sell it back to Germany to obtain cash and can repeat the offer here, but West Germany had her problem with the integration of East Germany to accept, plus has been devoid of German national for at least 4 decades. Naturally there is the scenario that's more or less Berlin (and EDA) had no other choice to send troops there to stabilize the situation...but much depend on how and if the Soviet Union remain stable and united and how react the rest of East Europe. -Sure the USA industrial core has not been destroyed, still has been nuked, being subjected at chemical attack, great part of southwest being a warzone, Washington destroyed and Los Angeles had seen figthing and after that great civil disturbance (probably worse than the 91 riot, and just that costed 1 billion dollar in damage), plus other part of the USA has been attacked like Florida and New Orleans and in many part of the nation there are been severe riots. This all mean that while not in ruin, she has been hit severely and it will need years to rebuilt not considering that the political life of the nation will be much more complicated, finally there is the problem of the dollar, the once premiere and safest currency of the world had been severely hit and many investor will probably decide to use other currencies (and at the moment the safest are the one of the EEC/EDA) and just that will complicate the economic life and recovery of the USA. Military speaking the US Navy has been severely hit and recreate her will cost a lot (and money for sometime will be tight), the same for the rest of the armed forces so in general power projection will be diminished till full recovery
The British will be even in a worse situation (but at least has not being nuked) both financially and military...frankly while there will be resentment for the EDA nations, they will both go to Paris/Bruxelles/Bonn, whatever to ask loan and economic aid...and it's almost assured that they will receive it as see the Marshall Plan for the reason.
- South America will be problematic, on the surface the USA is still the big dog but the behaviour during and (long) before the war had not created a lot of friends and many nations can see this as an occasion to distance themselfs from the very big brother in the NOrth...and there is Mexico and Cuba. Probable something similar to Mercosur, Andean Community, Central America Union will be formed for both better common defense and properity but also to have more power to deal with the USA
- Japan has been hit severely, both directly and inderectly, as said before this has not been a very nice period for Japan due to dependence from foreign oil and food and for an economy based on export the postwar recession will be a severe hit, plus a lot of her clients had much less buying capacity of before. Kurily (and maybe Sakalin) will be recovered...even to show people that the war has been won/worthy of something. - Taiwan will be busy trying to reclaim China but on pratical effect will be limited to some province, second warlord period here we come.
Not even considering the consequences of the humanitarian and refugee crisis in Asia due to the war in Korea and China (plus Vietnam due to the goverment being effectively destroyed) and naturally the nuclear fallout. - THe URSS will have two choice, transform herselfs in a big north Korea or disbanding (the level of the violence will depend on the circumstances), in any case expect a lot of dead and conflicts all over the place; the only reason other will not intereve or invade/push too much is the big arsenal capable of destroying all life on earth that the politbureau still command.
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jfoxx
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Post by jfoxx on Nov 23, 2018 19:17:23 GMT
The continuedback and forth in this thread about whether the US will still be a world power misses a major point. It will remain and economic power, and by extension, a major world power simply because of it size, resources, and economic base. That said, how much of a power depends heavily on how isolationist the country becomes after the war. My guess is very and is therefore relatively less powerful.
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pjmidd
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Post by pjmidd on Nov 23, 2018 19:41:44 GMT
Looking at politics going forward.
US will remember its friends, enemies and with most effect, its false friends, payback is a bitch as the saying goes. So US-UK links get stronger , EU-US links weaken etc. What was NATO probably ends up as two organizations, those that heeded the call in a US led pact, those that did not, a french led pact. Same sort of thing will happen in the Pacific and Americas.
Germany may have issues with its export led economy due to both the effects of integrating the East and US resentment blocking access to US tech and running a whispering campaign. Lots of below the belt stuff will go on, Soviets will not be around but Germany is a convenient lighting rod for anger ( others can pass the blame for their actions by saying they could not do anything due to Germany saying No ).
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 23, 2018 21:32:43 GMT
Kaliningrad has no German population left, the Soviets basically kicked everyone out and resettled. If anyone gets it after the war, its likely Poland with parts of the Oblast going to Lithuania rather than Germany ( who will have their hands full integrating West and East so not need more headaches ). Most likely, either that or it is forced become an independent state when the SU collapses. I am however pretty certain that Russia won't be allowed to keep it, even if Brussel Will be doing it more as an "up Yours" than due to security concerns or correcting perchieved historic wrongs.
And how is a European state that is weaker than OTL going to force a nuclear armed Russia to give up territory? There is the option that as luke says Russia might be willing to sell it but that would depend on the circumstances. Its still only going to get back the Russian enclave and that will cause problems as it now because a mainly Russian populated German enclave - unless you suppose that the Germans are going to forcibly deport all the current population.
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Post by eurowatch on Nov 23, 2018 21:50:24 GMT
Most likely, either that or it is forced become an independent state when the SU collapses. I am however pretty certain that Russia won't be allowed to keep it, even if Brussel Will be doing it more as an "up Yours" than due to security concerns or correcting perchieved historic wrongs.
And how is a European state that is weaker than OTL going to force a nuclear armed Russia to give up territory? There is the option that as luke says Russia might be willing to sell it but that would depend on the circumstances. Its still only going to get back the Russian enclave and that will cause problems as it now because a mainly Russian populated German enclave - unless you suppose that the Germans are going to forcibly deport all the current population.
It could be held by an international force for a few years before ebing offered the Choice of either being handed over to Poland, Germany or becoming independent. The local population gets to decide on their fate. |
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