Great North American War

What about the 2nd French Empire, are they pro-Confederacy but neutral due them being to busy with their intervention in Mexico.

Is this after the Trent affair ore before that the Great North American War begins.

Maybe Lincoln decides not to release the diplomats and that leads to Britain intervening in the American Civil War.

British America will no doubt become a major battlefield as Union troops invade from the south and Russian troops from the west. The timeframe I am thinking would easily exceed the American Civil War (OTL). The 2nd French Empire would probably remain in Mexico longer and could very well achieve a major victory against Mexican republican forces. The Union forces would most likely be more ruthless towards the Confederates for aligning with the British.

 
  The US may try attacking Canada, as its already further along the moblisation line than Britain, having been at war for ~1 year.  However it also got to fight the south, which at least in the east is still fully capable of launching offensives at this stage. 

  Also the British response is going to include a blockade, which will be pretty nasty for the union.  At this stage its still importing a hell of a lot of rifles and other weapons at this stage.  Not just from Britain either.  Its going to lose most other imports, possibly most importantly saltpetre, which is going to threaten its longer term capacity to wage any major war, let alone a two+ front one. 

  Also funding the war is going to become very problematic.  No loans from Britain, the major centre of international trade and any from elsewhere are going to be a lot more expensive.  Also the big source of tax revenue, from import tariffs, is going to contract sharply.  You will get some blockade runners, especially in the early months, but the US is going to have to pay through the nose for anything. Also it can forget about gold and silver from California and Nevada, another source of revenue as they won't be coming be sea.

Similarly the US is going to see its fishing and coastal trade highly disrupted by the blockade. While not as devastating as for the south, as the north has a much denser rail network, but its still going to cause problems and disruption.

Also forget about immigrants arriving as the war, including fear of being conscripted and the general disruption of the northern economy will deter most. Not to mention who would be carrying them. Not the British nor American merchant marines.

Of course this is all before British warships, including armoured floating batteries and ironclads, start bombarding east coast targets. Some are very well protected but a lot aren't.



The Russians would have very little to attack what becomes British Columbia with, while there is relatively little in the region at this stage.

More to the point it would be disastrous for Russia at this stage and the signs are the Russian leadership knows it. Their been left in disarray and with deep economic problems after the Crimean war and know they need a long time to recover from it. All a war with Britain would do is cripple this recovery as trade and loans are cut off and resources put into warfare.

Other than desperate attacks across the N Pacific from their minimal bases in eastern Siberia, what can the Russians do. Their blocked in the Black Sea, although they could see their important grain exports from the Ukraine blocked. In the north they can try sending ships out from the Baltic but against the British Home Fleet – good luck. Similarly trying to march through many hundred of miles of hostile territory in Central Asia to then fight their way across Afghanistan and attack the NW frontier of India isn't going to do anything except kill an awful lot of Russians, as well as others.

Britain is pretty much at the top of its power at this point. While other nations are starting to catch up their still a long way behind and the Crimean war gave a push to areas such as steel production, helping to prompt the invention of the Bessemer Converter. The army still have problems but the Crimean cleared out a lot of dead wood and the regulars are well trained and equipped and there are potentially a lot of new recruits. The naval yards would welcome a lot of new work and the steel plants and engineers will have a field day. It will be costly for the country, especially if the war lasts a couple of years but the country can easily afford it being by far the richest economy in the world.

Similarly, with France friendly and engaged in Mexico and Austria and Prussia involved in their own feud Britain is secure at home. The Russians can't pose a threat and Britain will know it, while the US insistence on war [as it will be seen in Britain] and any attacks on Canada will stoke up feeling in Britain further.

Basically this is a recipe for disaster for the US, possibly a very bad one if they persist, while the south is likely to become independent, Britain has some financial costs but another boost to the economy and technology and Russia gets its revival set back some ways at least.  The Russians would have very little to attack what becomes British Columbia with, while there is relatively little in the region at this stage.

  Some sort of Trent war conflict is one of the more frequently discussed AH wars and there are a lot of nasty details in here for the union.

  Steve

So the Union would probably concentrate the majority of it's military efforts on invading the South while only attempt to secure a buffer within British America? And because of the blockade, I am guessing no opening a second front in the Gulf Coast with the troops that would've taken part in that campaign instead being divided between coastal defense, northern buffer zone, and invasion of the South. So even if the Union were to win, chances are the conflict would last into the 1870's with greater loss of life then OTL and likely Reconstruction lasting into the 20th century?

France would definitely be in a bad position if Prussia were to invade while they were still busy in Mexico. Russia and the Union for that matter might see an ally in a unified German nation.