Great North American War

  Had a quick skim through and saw the bit on British diplomacy



  China possibly but India was suppressing a violent and bloody military mutiny, albeit that it got substantial public support, as did continued British rule of India.  Russia attacked the Ottomans and Britain and France came to the latter's aid.  Britain was involved in intervention in Mexico after the latter defaulted on debt but withdrew and politically opposed France's attempts to control the country.  Since the Monroe Document was at the time of political importance only in the US it was largely an irrelevance to the rest of the world.

  All in all this shows a substantial amount of bias and either ignorance of or desire to ignore the actual facts.  This makes me think its a document of minimal value.

  It should be noted that while some elements, especially the more aristocratic, showed some support for the south others openly and strongly supported the union, largely because they saw the war as being solely about slavery, which they strongly opposed.

So it's most likely the Great North American War would eventually become an earlier World War One?

If Russia and the Union won, British America would be either reduced or eliminated while the German States are unified?

If the Russo-American alliance was preserved to this day, the U.S. flag would probably have more then 50 Stars and U.S. National Anthem would probably be the "Battle Cry of Freedom"?

On the other hand if the Britrish and southerners won you would have the south surviving, at least for the monent and possibly other territorial losses for the union. If Russia was involved Alaska is very likely added to Canada.

The big issuses here would be the longer term impact on the major powers involved.
a) For Russia probably fairly minimal. Modernisation is delayed because debts are even deeper and more men have been lost and trade discrupted by the conflict.

b) For Britain somewhat higher debt but in this period the economy is very prosperous and those debts can probably be paid off fairly quickly. Another boost to elements of the economy affected by the war, such as shipyards, gun manufacturers, steel production etc. If a lot of troops are recruited, which is likely in a longer war, then you could well see pressure for social change, especially improved housing conditions in the big citis and earlier introduction of education reforms.

c) For Canada its probably going to be a bit bigger and attract more migrants over the next few decades. Because you might get soldiers staying on in the country and migration routes from Europe diverted from the US to Canada [among others], plus possibly the US looking less attractive to migrants after the war. Also if here is continued bad feeling between Canada and the US your unlikely to see the continued flow of settlers south from Canada, or at a markedly reduced level. This could result in Canada achiving a degree of economic take-off into a more developed and poplusous economy. Also with no immediate need to have good relations with the US and possibly a desire to express their own status as such Canada might become a kingdom rather than using the old term Dominion.

d) The south is likely to have a period of prosperity, but with many men recruited into the army you are likely to see pressure for social reform and possibly a challenge to the plantocracy, although how successful that would be? A lot depends on whether the south, like the early US OTL, gets a more organised constitution or stay highly decentralised. Also a lot depends on what happens in the US and how the two interact.

e) The rump US/union is a great uncertainty. Its going to have much deeper debts and serious disruption of trade and economical development, even in a relatively short war. If fought pretty much to the bitter end this could me much higher, along with possibly larger numbers of dead and possibly substantial territorial loss.

The other thing is how it reacts socially. There is likely to be war-hawks who will a war of revenge but how much influence they will have and how much they could disrupt US economic development. [By higher military spending, frightening away foreign investment and immigrants, divisions over who was to blame for the defeat ect.]

Its extremely unlikely that this conflict would interact significantly with the Prussian wars of expansion, even if somehow the union stays fighting until 1866 or later. Therefore those are probably likely to go as OTL although continued French involvement in Mexico could mean no Franco-Prussian war, at least not in 1870.