Italian colonization

That could be the key point but I know there have been a lot of suggestions that if Italy hadn't got emboilged in WWII they could have ended up demographically dominating Libya. Although whether an Italian Libya could have maintained itself once most of the rest of the Arab world becomes independent could be another matter.

However definitely if there had been a non-fascist government that ruled the country better and avoided WWII, let alone on Italy that didn't get involved in Eritreia and E Africa but still took Libya as OTL that could well occur.

I think it was a failure of German diplomacy to prevent the entry of Italy into WW1. I've been told that Britain's domination of Italian trade is what finally pushed them into the war, so if Germany could develop a competitive market alternative they may induce the Italians to not risk their prosperity and lives in the warfare of other powers. Maybe a Baltic to Adriatic trading block cemented with a robust rail network connecting Germany to Italy would be sufficient. So after the end of WW1 the Italians may realize the benefit of developing what is already in possession rather than risking foreign adventure.

  To some degree this is the case but there is also the fact that most countries have differing factions on many issues.  For instance Germany was late in the colony game not just because of its late unification but also because Bismarck for a long while opposed Germany entering the colonial game.  As such, especially with its limited economic ability and sometimes rocky unity, I could see Italy possibly having government that oppose colonial expansion.  Or at least in a fairly distant and improvished region such as the Red Sea.  It might be that say they make more of an effort earlier to challenge the French in Tunisia.  If this happened early enough and Italian interests were substantial OTL, it could be that France and Italy agree spheres of interest that results in Tunisia becoming an Italian rather than a French colony.  This could make them less interested in E Africa.

  This could resolve the main issue, that Italy had a colony in E Africa and a defeat by Ethiopia before they were established in Libya.  If they instead secure Tunisia and then expand into Libya it gives a much better chance to have a more stable Italian colonial empire and if it then avoided fascism and involvement in any WWII you might well see Italy make a serious bid to maintain its presence, at least in Libya.  Possibly also in Tunisia, in alliance with the French seeking to keep Algeria as the two would cover each others flanks to a degree.

  Steve

PS  An earlier and more sustained effort in Tunisia and then Libya might also met the OP needs in redirecting some of the Italian flow of emmigrants to America towards N Africa instead.

  bytor

  Hell I knew a lot of Italians left, for the US especially but didn't realise it was that many.  9M in the period 1860-1914.  Thanks for that link.

  There appears to be a discrepancy in the article however as the text says that most Italians emigrated from southern Italy.  However the figures from the map seem to suggest the majority actually came from the northern part of the country with that from the south only expanding considerably after 1900.

  Also interesting that the proportion of Italians in Libya seem to have declined in the late 30's.  Would have thought that they would have encouraged movement to Libya, although possibly its just an example of how incompetent Mussolini's government was?

  Its possible I suppose that some circumstances come up that the unified Italy goes for colonies very quickly after 1870 and encourages people to move to them.  Possibly Tunisia and then taking Libya from the Turks, although I'm not sure how capable Italy would be of doing that so early or the reaction of other powers.  [Britain especially is likely to oppose this as the traditional protector of the Ottomans and also when the Liberals are in power Gladstone would seek to oppose any such scramble I suspect]

  There isn't anything on the article about the relationship of mass emigration to the rise of crime groups like the mafia.  I'm not sure how things might be different if a large proportion of the migrants went to Italian controlled colonies in N Africa instead, although I suspect there would still be a tendency for the wealthy and powerful to seek to control the economy.  Mind you it would be the local Arab inhabitants who are likely to suffer the most.

  Steve