mcnutt
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Post by mcnutt on Oct 31, 2016 16:09:04 GMT
In September 1968, Wallace was getting 20% in the polls. In after October, after he named Curtis Lemay as his choice for Vice President he dropped to 15%. In the election he earned 13.5 5. What if one of the Southern Congressman or Senators he asked had said yes?. If you increase Wallace's percentage by a third he would have won Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina and Florida. The Electoral College would have been Nixon 255 Humphrey 191 and Wallace 92. Nobody would have won. The election would have gone to the House. Wallace said in that case, he would have made a deal. His conditions would have been agreeing not enforce federal Civil Rights laws. I am thinking Nixon makes the deal. He would have started his presidency under a cloud. Particularly because he would have lost the popular votes. I am thinking Nixon 38% Humphrey 40% and Wallace 20%. I think after pressure from Congress and the public, Nixon goes back on his promise by 1970. This helps Humphrey as he tries for the 1972 Democratic nomination. Even if McGovern is the nominees, there so much anger at Nixon, he does better. I'll say Nixon 58% McGovern 40%. In addition to Massachusetts and the District of Columbia, McGovern wins Rhode Island, Minnesota and South Dakota
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 31, 2016 16:17:30 GMT
In September 1968, Wallace was getting 20% in the polls. In after October, after he named Curtis Lemay as his choice for Vice President he dropped to 15%. In the election he earned 13.5 5. What if one of the Southern Congressman or Senators he asked had said yes?. If you increase Wallace's percentage by a third he would have won Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina and Florida. The Electoral College would have been Nixon 255 Humphrey 191 and Wallace 92. Nobody would have won. The election would have gone to the House. Wallace said in that case, he would have made a deal. His conditions would have been agreeing not enforce federal Civil Rights laws. I am thinking Nixon makes the deal. He would have started his presidency under a cloud. Particularly because he would have lost the popular votes. I am thinking Nixon 38% Humphrey 40% and Wallace 20%. I am think after pressure from Congress and the public, Nixon goes back on his promise by 1970. This helps Humphrey as he tries for the 1972 Democratic nomination. Even if McGovern is the nominees, there so much anger at Nixon, he does better. I'll say Nixon 58% McGovern 40%. In addition to Massachusetts and the District of Columbia, McGovern wins Rhode Island, Minnesota and South Dakota Well i can say that FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover would not be a good running mate, maybe worst than Lemay. |
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doug181
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Post by doug181 on Nov 1, 2016 12:23:07 GMT
Interesting proposition. Wallace won Michigan primary I believe so he may take votes from Humphrey in the north. However unless his electors change their votes it goes to the House. I can't see southern Democrats all going for Nixon. I think at that time Democrats had a large majority.
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deltaforce
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Post by deltaforce on Mar 14, 2017 4:44:29 GMT
It's possible that the Republicans and Democrats would just negotiate something between themselves and sideline Wallace, especially since the entire purpose of his campaign was to act as a spoiler. If the 1968 House elections go as historical then the map for 1968 looks like this:  That's 19 Republican states and 26 Democratic states. However, five Democratic states voted Wallace in the election, including two in which Wallace won outright (Alabama and Mississippi) and two with solid pluralities (Louisiana and Georgia). At least two states, probably four, and quite likely five are not voting for Humphrey. Since this scenario involves Wallace winning more states, the Democrats have a lot less states that are likely to vote for Humphrey in the House. Oregon, Montana, Illinois, and Virginia were tied and voted Nixon in the election, and don't seem likely to change in a Wallace deadlock scenario. Maryland was tied too but went for Humphrey, although if Wallace bleeds votes it might go for Nixon. If Humphrey refuses to negotiate with Wallace (he's too far from much of the base that voted for him) Nixon doesn't need Wallace states to be elected by the House. It seems likely Nixon is sitting at 24 states already (if the tied states vote for who won them) and likely 25 if Maryland flips. All it takes is one Democratic state flipping to put Nixon over the top after that. |
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