Post by futurist on Sept 4, 2016 7:16:14 GMT
Basically, here is this scenario of mine:
In 1871, Prussia/Germany annexes iron ore-rich Briey and Longwy from France in addition to annexing Alsace-Lorraine. In turn, this significantly weakens France and ensures that France will not be able to give large-scale loans to Russia (due to a lack of money) in this TL. In this TL, a Franco-British rapprochement occurs *much* earlier due to France needing Britain's help protecting its interests abroad (in order for France not to need to spend so much money on its own navy). Also, in this TL, France will probably import *a lot* of iron ore from countries such as Spain. In addition to this, in this TL, France will probably adopt an exclusively defensive military strategy (after all, after its loss of both Alsace-Lorraine and Briey-Longwy, France certainly *doesn't* want to *ever* risk losing *any* additional territory to Germany) and will thus probably build border fortifications all of the way from Switzerland to the North Sea. Thus, in this TL, a Schlieffen Plan-style German military plan would probably be unfeasible.
Without the French large-scale loans, Russia is forced to look elsewhere for large-scale loans in this TL. In this regard, Russia has *some* success in acquiring large-scale loans from other countries--specifically from the Netherlands, Belgium, and, to a lesser extent, from Britain, Germany, and the United States of America. However, Russia can't *fully* overcome its inability to acquire large-scale loans from France in this TL and thus industrializes and develops at a *somewhat* slower pace in this TL. Also, there will probably be *no* Franco-Russian alliance (due to France having less to offer Russia in this TL) and less Russian intrigues in the Balkans and in Austria-Hungary in this TL (due to Russia not having a strong ally in France to count upon to help it in this TL).
In this TL, Germany *doesn't* have to worry as much about France's and Russia's militaries and is thus able to spend more money on its naval expansion program (especially considering the additional German tax revenue that will come from iron ore-rich Briey and Longwy) in comparison to our TL--thus further angering Britain. However, I suspect that Britain's better taxation system along with the fact that Britain doesn't need to spend as much money on its army as Germany does will ensure that Britain will still eventually win the Anglo-German naval arms race in this TL.
In 1917, after Austro-Hungarian Emperor Franz Joseph dies, the Ausgleich (Austro-Hungarian union) collapses and a short Austro-Hungarian civil war follows. With the help of Romania, Franz Ferdinand quickly wins this civil war and allows Romania to annex Transylvania in order to spite the Hungarians (whom Franz Ferdinand hates). Afterwards, Franz Ferdinand implements universal suffrage in Hungary and begins looking for additional ways in which he can modernize Austria-Hungary and strengthen his own rule in Austria-Hungary.
In 1930 (for the record, in this TL, Russia's level of development in 1930 is the same as Russia's level of development was in 1914 in our TL), another revolution occurs in Russia (the previous one was in 1905-1906) due to popular anger at Russian Tsar Nicholas II's incompetence. As the revolutionaries gain the upper hand, Nicholas is overthrown in an internal palace coup by other Romanov royal family members. However, the revolutionaries refuse to accept *any* Russian monarch--even a British-style Russian constitutional monarch--and instead insist on the creation of a republic. Thus, the entire Romanov royal family is forced to flee abroad.
Meanwhile, revolutionary fervor (of a nationalistic flavor) arrives in the Baltic states (which are still a part of Russia in this TL). Fearful for both their safety and their property, the Baltic Barons (the ethnic Germans who are the nobility in Latvia and Estonia) request military assistance from Germany to protect themselves and their property from Latvian and Estonian revolutionaries. German Kaiser Wilhelm II, seeing a golden opportunity to reassert his own autocratic rule in Germany after seeing the Social Democrats rapidly grow in strength and numbers, quickly agrees. In order to avoid looking unpatriotic, the German Reichstag quickly approves Kaiser Wilhelm II's request to send German troops to Russia (specifically to Latvia and Estonia--though Germany will obviously need to cross some other Russian territory to actually get to Latvia and Estonia) in order to protect the Baltic Barons and the other Volksdeutsche who live in Latvia and Estonia.
Afterwards, German troops quickly advance through Poland and Lithuania. Russia's military, just recovering from the experience of a revolution, is absolutely *no* match for Germany. Indeed, at this pace, Germany should be able to occupy both Latvia and Estonia within several months--with only logistical difficulties slowing down the advance of the German Army.
In this TL, Britain and France are faced with a dilemma. Specifically, Britain and France need to quickly figure out how exactly they should react to Germany's current moves in Russia (again, there is *no* Franco-Russian alliance in this TL).
Anyway, what exactly do you think that Britain and France would do in this TL?
Also, how exactly do you think that everything will play out in this TL?
Indeed, any thoughts on all of this?
In 1871, Prussia/Germany annexes iron ore-rich Briey and Longwy from France in addition to annexing Alsace-Lorraine. In turn, this significantly weakens France and ensures that France will not be able to give large-scale loans to Russia (due to a lack of money) in this TL. In this TL, a Franco-British rapprochement occurs *much* earlier due to France needing Britain's help protecting its interests abroad (in order for France not to need to spend so much money on its own navy). Also, in this TL, France will probably import *a lot* of iron ore from countries such as Spain. In addition to this, in this TL, France will probably adopt an exclusively defensive military strategy (after all, after its loss of both Alsace-Lorraine and Briey-Longwy, France certainly *doesn't* want to *ever* risk losing *any* additional territory to Germany) and will thus probably build border fortifications all of the way from Switzerland to the North Sea. Thus, in this TL, a Schlieffen Plan-style German military plan would probably be unfeasible.
Without the French large-scale loans, Russia is forced to look elsewhere for large-scale loans in this TL. In this regard, Russia has *some* success in acquiring large-scale loans from other countries--specifically from the Netherlands, Belgium, and, to a lesser extent, from Britain, Germany, and the United States of America. However, Russia can't *fully* overcome its inability to acquire large-scale loans from France in this TL and thus industrializes and develops at a *somewhat* slower pace in this TL. Also, there will probably be *no* Franco-Russian alliance (due to France having less to offer Russia in this TL) and less Russian intrigues in the Balkans and in Austria-Hungary in this TL (due to Russia not having a strong ally in France to count upon to help it in this TL).
In this TL, Germany *doesn't* have to worry as much about France's and Russia's militaries and is thus able to spend more money on its naval expansion program (especially considering the additional German tax revenue that will come from iron ore-rich Briey and Longwy) in comparison to our TL--thus further angering Britain. However, I suspect that Britain's better taxation system along with the fact that Britain doesn't need to spend as much money on its army as Germany does will ensure that Britain will still eventually win the Anglo-German naval arms race in this TL.
In 1917, after Austro-Hungarian Emperor Franz Joseph dies, the Ausgleich (Austro-Hungarian union) collapses and a short Austro-Hungarian civil war follows. With the help of Romania, Franz Ferdinand quickly wins this civil war and allows Romania to annex Transylvania in order to spite the Hungarians (whom Franz Ferdinand hates). Afterwards, Franz Ferdinand implements universal suffrage in Hungary and begins looking for additional ways in which he can modernize Austria-Hungary and strengthen his own rule in Austria-Hungary.
In 1930 (for the record, in this TL, Russia's level of development in 1930 is the same as Russia's level of development was in 1914 in our TL), another revolution occurs in Russia (the previous one was in 1905-1906) due to popular anger at Russian Tsar Nicholas II's incompetence. As the revolutionaries gain the upper hand, Nicholas is overthrown in an internal palace coup by other Romanov royal family members. However, the revolutionaries refuse to accept *any* Russian monarch--even a British-style Russian constitutional monarch--and instead insist on the creation of a republic. Thus, the entire Romanov royal family is forced to flee abroad.
Meanwhile, revolutionary fervor (of a nationalistic flavor) arrives in the Baltic states (which are still a part of Russia in this TL). Fearful for both their safety and their property, the Baltic Barons (the ethnic Germans who are the nobility in Latvia and Estonia) request military assistance from Germany to protect themselves and their property from Latvian and Estonian revolutionaries. German Kaiser Wilhelm II, seeing a golden opportunity to reassert his own autocratic rule in Germany after seeing the Social Democrats rapidly grow in strength and numbers, quickly agrees. In order to avoid looking unpatriotic, the German Reichstag quickly approves Kaiser Wilhelm II's request to send German troops to Russia (specifically to Latvia and Estonia--though Germany will obviously need to cross some other Russian territory to actually get to Latvia and Estonia) in order to protect the Baltic Barons and the other Volksdeutsche who live in Latvia and Estonia.
Afterwards, German troops quickly advance through Poland and Lithuania. Russia's military, just recovering from the experience of a revolution, is absolutely *no* match for Germany. Indeed, at this pace, Germany should be able to occupy both Latvia and Estonia within several months--with only logistical difficulties slowing down the advance of the German Army.
In this TL, Britain and France are faced with a dilemma. Specifically, Britain and France need to quickly figure out how exactly they should react to Germany's current moves in Russia (again, there is *no* Franco-Russian alliance in this TL).
Anyway, what exactly do you think that Britain and France would do in this TL?
Also, how exactly do you think that everything will play out in this TL?
Indeed, any thoughts on all of this?