futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 27, 2016 2:24:42 GMT
What if either Franz Ferdinand *isn't* assassinated, or, perhaps better yet, German Kaiser Wilhelm II, in a rare moment of rational-mindedness, decides *not* to give Austria-Hungary a "blank check" after Franz Ferdinand's assassination and thus World War I is averted in 1914? Indeed, in this TL, Germany *doesn't* find another suitable excuse to spark World War I before the Schlieffen Plan becomes obsolete in 1917 and thus Germany becomes less war-hungry afterwards (due to its inferior position). (Also, German military leaders who are believed to be supportive of launching a coup (before 1917) against German Kaiser Wilhelm II (for being too peaceful) are quickly demoted and removed from their positions.) After 1917, Britain gradually becomes closer to Germany and gradually distances itself from the Franco-Russian alliance due to Russia's increasing/rising military power.
Later on, sometime in the 1920s, Russia once again descends into revolution due to Russian Tsar Nicholas II's incompetence and good governing. Most of Russia's urban areas experience severe rioting and Russia's army has to be called in to try restoring order; however, many Russian soldiers defect and join the protesters (many of whom are socialists and/or Communists). Indeed, Russian Tsar Nicholas II's rule appears to be about to end within the next several months--or, in the best-case scenario, within the next year. After all, the balance of power is gradually shifting to the protesters and revolutionaries as a result of the large numbers of the defecting Russian soldiers and the weapons that they provide to the protesters and revolutionaries.
Meanwhile, Germany's leadership is watching events in Russia with *extremely* great interest. Indeed, German Kaiser Wilhelm II (due to his *extreme* hostility towards both republicanism and socialism) is now fully supportive of a return to the Schlieffen Plan and of simultaneously waging war against both France and Russia (after all, the current crisis in Russia *might* give the Schlieffen Plan a short period of time in which it is once again viable). Now, the key questions are these:
1. Would it actually be feasible (in the eyes of German military leaders) for Germany to use the Schlieffen Plan right now in this TL? After all, due to the chaos there, many--indeed, perhaps most--of the Russian troops are currently too busy within Russia to currently fight Germany. Indeed, after (hopefully) defeating France, German Kaiser Wilhelm II hopes to invade Russia and to appeal to the various ethnic minorities in Russia.
2. If the German government manages to come up with a fake excuse for Germany to go to war against France (such as what Hitler did in 1939 when he had German troops dress up in Polish military uniforms and then attack Germany), would the German Reichstag actually be willing to accept such an excuse to go to war with France?
3. If World War I breaks out during this time in this TL, is Germany likely to quickly defeat France before Russia can significantly help France and then to quickly defeat Russia?
4. If the answer to question #3 is Yes, what exactly would the post-World War I peace treaties look like in this TL?
5. What exactly would Britain do during World War I in this TL? Would it enter this war on the Franco-Russian side? Or would it try maintaining its good relations with Germany?
Anyway, any thoughts on everything that I wrote here?
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 27, 2016 2:25:07 GMT
Indeed, *if* a revival of the Schlieffen Plan is actually feasible sometime in the 1920s in this TL, I can certainly imagine German conservatives supporting war against both France and Russia in order to deal/give an *extremely* harsh blow to both republicanism and socialism. After all, what better way to try discrediting both republicanism and socialism than by having the (semi-)autocratic Germany defeat the main historical republic in Europe (France) and then defeat a newly established republic (Russia)?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 27, 2016 8:11:45 GMT
Indeed, *if* a revival of the Schlieffen Plan is actually feasible sometime in the 1920s in this TL, I can certainly imagine German conservatives supporting war against both France and Russia in order to deal/give an *extremely* harsh blow to both republicanism and socialism. After all, what better way to try discrediting both republicanism and socialism than by having the (semi-)autocratic Germany defeat the main historical republic in Europe (France) and then defeat a newly established republic (Russia)? Wait did you just comment on your own post. Question would Lenin still go to Russia in the 1920s ore stay in Switzerland and also would his health, remember he suffer from ill health from 1921 onward.
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cornelis
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Post by cornelis on Aug 27, 2016 9:03:48 GMT
I cannot see the British sitting idle while the three great powers on the continent go for each other's throat.
The other thing is the progression of the Socialists parties : in France, Jaurès was the main opponent to the war, in Germany, the SPD is less clear. If they manage to get to power in one of the two countries (arguably, in Germany, the Emperor and the Army will choke them before), peace is still reachable.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 27, 2016 12:16:34 GMT
I cannot see the British sitting idle while the three great powers on the continent go for each other's throat. The other thing is the progression of the Socialists parties : in France, Jaurès was the main opponent to the war, in Germany, the SPD is less clear. If they manage to get to power in one of the two countries (arguably, in Germany, the Emperor and the Army will choke them before), peace is still reachable. Well i always wonder what would happen if Lenin instead of moving to Russia would go to Germany or France instead, could that happen if there was no Russia Revolution for several years.
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cornelis
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Post by cornelis on Aug 27, 2016 12:33:40 GMT
Not sure a foreigner could become a real player in early 20th c.-politics, even on the Internationale side. Anyways, French SFIO was under Jaurès' leadership and he was clearly hostile to Lenin's coup strategy. I do not know enough of the German SPD.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 28, 2016 6:06:32 GMT
Indeed, *if* a revival of the Schlieffen Plan is actually feasible sometime in the 1920s in this TL, I can certainly imagine German conservatives supporting war against both France and Russia in order to deal/give an *extremely* harsh blow to both republicanism and socialism. After all, what better way to try discrediting both republicanism and socialism than by having the (semi-)autocratic Germany defeat the main historical republic in Europe (France) and then defeat a newly established republic (Russia)? 1. Wait did you just comment on your own post. 2. Question would Lenin still go to Russia in the 1920s ore stay in Switzerland and also would his health, remember he suffer from ill health from 1921 onward. 1. Yes, I did. 2. I suppose that it would depend on his health. However, Lenin might be in better health in this TL since Fanya Kaplan almost certainly isn't going to try assassinating him as early as 1918.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 28, 2016 6:08:40 GMT
1. I cannot see the British sitting idle while the three great powers on the continent go for each other's throat. 2. The other thing is the progression of the Socialists parties : in France, Jaurès was the main opponent to the war, in Germany, the SPD is less clear. If they manage to get to power in one of the two countries (arguably, in Germany, the Emperor and the Army will choke them before), peace is still reachable. 1. Completely agreed; thus, Britain would probably feel compelled to enter this war on the Franco-Russian side. 2. Frankly, I don't think that the opinions of the French matter at all here. Rather, the only opinions that matter are those of the Germans. Thus, unless the Social Democrats and their allies will have a majority of the total seats in the German Reichstag, I would think that the German Reichstag would approve of any war resolution(s) that the German Chancellor will put forward.
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Post by puffyclouds on Sept 18, 2016 1:13:25 GMT
Imperial Germany has had six years to grow its industry, to change under liberal pressure, to develop its colonies, and to secure a Berlin to Basra connection. Germany would have an increasing interest in keeping peace in Eastern Europe to protect its economic investments. I don't think Germany has a lot to gain from Russian territory -- maybe dependent principalities over Finland, Livonia, Poland, and Ukraine.
Under its imperial burdens, Austria-Hungary may have dissolved, so Germany may also have an Adriatic connection. Reformers in the Ottoman Empire, and militarist in Italy would be hard to predict. French revnachism probably hasn't gone anywhere though.
But in this time Germany's navy could have become very formidable, and its air forces quite advanced. Sure Imperial Germany could attempt to seize the BeNeLux and some additional French territory when Russia is weakened. Its going to be worse than OTL-WW1 though.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Sept 18, 2016 17:09:04 GMT
1. Imperial Germany has had six years to grow its industry, to change under liberal pressure, to develop its colonies, and to secure a Berlin to Basra connection. Germany would have an increasing interest in keeping peace in Eastern Europe to protect its economic investments. I don't think Germany has a lot to gain from Russian territory -- maybe dependent principalities over Finland, Livonia, Poland, and Ukraine. 2. Under its imperial burdens, Austria-Hungary may have dissolved, so Germany may also have an Adriatic connection. Reformers in the Ottoman Empire, and militarist in Italy would be hard to predict. French revnachism probably hasn't gone anywhere though. 3. But in this time Germany's navy could have become very formidable, 4. and its air forces quite advanced. 5. Sure Imperial Germany could attempt to seize the BeNeLux and some additional French territory when Russia is weakened. 6. Its going to be worse than OTL-WW1 though. 1. Germany probably wants to reduce the risk of Russia eventually overshadowing it and becoming the dominant military and economic power in Europe, though. 2. Unlikely; after all, there is probably not enough time for this. 3. Unlikely due to the halt in the Anglo-German naval arms race in 1912. 4. Maybe ... maybe. 5. Yes--along with some/a lot of Russian territory. 6. Why exactly do you say that, though?
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Sept 18, 2016 17:10:43 GMT
Also, again, in addition to weakening France, I certainly think that Germany's leadership is still going to want to put Russia on its knees in this TL in order to reduce the risk of a future Russian domination of Germany and of most or all of Europe.
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Post by puffyclouds on Sept 21, 2016 17:48:41 GMT
1. Germany probably wants to reduce the risk of Russia eventually overshadowing it and becoming the dominant military and economic power in Europe, though. I don't know what reply to give to this comment. It's not like this logic hasn't happened before or will never happen again. Hopefully for the other reasons I enunciated, at 1920 Germany would avoid starting a two front war, or war at all. 3. Unlikely due to the halt in the Anglo-German naval arms race in 1912. Assuming that halt stayed, even then the German Navy could either renovate certain ships or replace existing ones with more combat effective ships. 5. Yes--along with some/a lot of Russian territory. Russian (and by that I assume you mean Poland, Belarus, and/or Ukraine) farmland does not seem like a very profitable exchange for potential war with the West. If it could be framed through the lens of stopping dangerous revolutionaries then Italy, France, the UK, and the US could remain neutral. However there will be national independence movements that occur later in those occupied territories, and perhaps even revanchist sentiments in Russia. 6. Why exactly do you say that, though? This ties in with comment 3 and 4, the progression of technology will have made the instruments of war more deadly, yet mobility/transportation will not have advanced to the point of 1939 so I foresee troop movements being halted by logistics again, and then to be slaughtered in more technically advanced warfare than OTL-WW1. Additional fortifications may have even been constructed along borders in these intervening years between 1914 and 1920.
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